Aside from an early flurry by the Braves, there hasn’t been much movement on the relief market. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, seven relievers have signed a deal that guarantees more than $10MM since the end of the regular season. Atlanta inked three of those contracts, two of which (for Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez) came just before the opening of free agency.
There’s no question who tops the class; that’s Josh Hader. The #2 reliever is a matter of debate. One could’ve made arguments for Jiménez, Reynaldo López or even NPB closer Yuki Matsui (who signed a five-year, $28MM pact with San Diego). On our Top 50 free agents, we slotted Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson as the top bullpen arms behind Hader. We predicted four-year pacts for both players, pegging Hicks for a $40MM deal and Stephenson at $36MM.
Neither pitcher has a multi-year track record of consistency. Yet they’re each hitting the market at an opportune time, coming off strong platform showings that demonstrate significant upside.
Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. His sinker averaged a little above 100 MPH, reaching 103-104. The velocity hasn’t translated into quite as many whiffs as it might seem, as the downhill action on the pitch works better as a ground-ball offering.
The righty has kept the ball on the ground on three-fifths of batted balls over the course of his career. His 24.5% career strikeout rate is more solid than exceptional, although he fanned a personal-high 28.4% of opponents last season. In addition to his eye-popping velocity and huge ground-ball numbers, Hicks has age on his side. He turned 27 in September, making him the youngest free agent reliever of note.
The primary concerns with Hicks are his control and injury history. He has never thrown strikes at a league average rate, walking over 10% of opponents in every season (including an 11.2% clip last year). While Hicks turned in a fully healthy platform year with the Cardinals and Blue Jays in 2023, he missed significant time between 2019-22. Much of that was a result of Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He lost a good portion of the ’21 campaign to continued elbow inflammation, while a flexor strain in his forearm cost him a chunk of the ’22 season.
Stephenson, who turns 31 in February, hasn’t had the same level of alarming arm issues. His career performance track record is spottier, though, as he has allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 364 1/3 frames. Some of that is a reflection of pitching in hitter-friendly parks in Cincinnati and Colorado, but Stephenson also posted unspectacular results in 28 1/3 innings with the Pirates.
As recently as last summer, he seemed a fairly nondescript pitcher. He’d been a highly-regarded prospect and showed intriguing stuff without much success at the MLB level. Things turned following an early June trade to the Rays.
In 38 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay, Stephenson posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out 42.9% of opponents. He missed bats on an astounding 28.7% of his offerings. That was not only the highest rate in MLB over that stretch, it was nearly eight percentage points above second-place Félix Bautista. Over the season’s final four months, he was handily the most dominant reliever in the majors on a pitch-for-pitch basis.
Stephenson doesn’t have the triple-digit velocity of Hicks. Averaging 97 MPH on the heater is more than sufficient, though. He introduced an upper-80s cutter in Tampa Bay, against which hitters made contact on only 40% of their swings. Stephenson has the decided edge in swing-and-miss potential. The question is how much of his dominant four months in Tampa Bay is replicable. He’s unlikely to continue missing bats at that exceptional clip — no pitcher should be expected to maintain that kind of pace — but he’s markedly better than the hurler who owned a career 4.91 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate before the trade.
There has been some overlap in the Hicks and Stephenson markets. That’s sensible considering they’re probably the top remaining options for teams that don’t want to meet Hader’s asking price. The Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels and Orioles are among the clubs linked to both pitchers this winter (although Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel). The Red Sox and Cardinals have been tied to Hicks, while the Cubs and Dodgers were linked to Stephenson early in the offseason.
Which one should teams prioritize? Lean in favor of Hicks’ youth and velocity or Stephenson’s bat-missing potential?
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Hicks might be worth $10 million yearly for 2-3 years, but not 4. Stephenson is definitely not worth $9 million a year at all.
right, and hicks will land the bigger contract accordingly, 3/33 should be his ballpark to a contending club, and i could see stephenson getting 3/25 or 2/24, as teams will obviously be wary of how he will look without the rays’ thinking cap on but i doubt either contract will create much surplus value
3/30 with a club option for a 4th or if he K’s X amount of batters for the first 2 years. The 4th year automatically kicks in.
Hicks could legit be the best reliever in baseball at some point in his career. His problem is throwing strikes and staying healthy enough to improve his command. He had times where he improved over the years but then he got hurt and he took a step backwards. Two things Hicks has going for him are age and stuff.
His problem is also throwing FB with no movement on them, so they’re easier to hit (very far) once a pro hitter gets the timing down.
That’s nonsense. He has great stuff with great movement. Heck the movement on his pitches is part of his problem they move too much and they are not strikes.
Hicks is close to putting it all together.
Hicks was maybe the most frustrating Cardinals pitcher to watch the last 5-6 years, and that’s saying a lot.
According to Statcast, his 4-seam FB was below league average in horizontal movement in 2023 and just above in vertical movement, but least of all his pitches.
Stephenson has put it altogether.
He only used the 4 seamer when he was behind in the count. He has a 2 seam fastball and I believe a slider. He’s a 2 pitch pitcher the 4 seamer is only used when he couldn’t find the zone. And those 2 pitches have a TON of movement on them.
He jumped on the sweeper train in 2023 and it looked like his most successful K-pitch (in terms of ratio to pitches thrown).
29 SO from the sweeper on 221 pitches thrown as opposed to 30 SO from sinker on 717 pitches thrown in ’23.
you’re clearly a guy who has seen hicks pitch consistently. most of his career he has struggled to get that movement under control…
Agreed, this guy has so much potential. That second year of his career before the TJ, he was closing big league games and command/control was reasonable. He was couldn’t have been older than 23 at the time
As a Bluejay fan last year. I felt pretty confident when he came out of the bullpen last year. Him and Romano and Swanson were a pretty formidable back end of a Bullpen. I don’t think the Jays will pay him what he wants. I wish they would
I think Hicks will top $10M a year, I think Hader will top $20M a year, etc.
If there’s a genuine bidding war on all these guys and everybody’s thinking is 4 years/$40M or 5 years/$100M, etc. then whomever signs them will have to push the contract envelope to secure the contract.
I think Hicks is at the point where he might actually get 4 years/$45M or more, Hader will get 5 years/$112.5M or more, etc.
I think Stephenson will remain cheap. He has very little track record- his performances have been all over the map and he happens to be coming off a fantastic platform season, but looking at the overall, he’s probably not worth whatever his 2023 performance would indicate he’d otherwise be worth.
If- if- IF 2023 was similar to 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, etc? Yeah, like 4 years/$50M to 5 years/$70M could be in order. But he does not have that track record- so coming off this somewhat isolated platform year performance, I think Stephenson should get 3 years/$27M guaranteed with a $3M buyout on a $13M player option and a 2 year/$25.5M club option.
Another big factor, imho, is that Stevenson is a two-pitch (or one pitch with variation) pitcher; whereas Hicks has a variety of pitches with which to attack hitters.
I wanted Hicks last season and hope the Yankees acquire him. He would be an excellent addition, imo.
I agree. I think Hader will be fine on any deal, but he will be extra expensive- as top of market as it gets and you may be paying for his drop off.
I think Hicks will be more cost effective and thus more likely to live up to the completion of a deal.
Also in looking even more closely at Stephenson’s numbers, I don’t think he’s worth much of anything beyond basically paying him for his second half performance last year.
By that measure, I’d certainly give him 1 year/$10M w/ some form of options, or 2 years/$20M guaranteed on $9M salaries w/ a $2M buyout on a $12M option or something, but anything beyond that seems to risky for Stephenson.
On a plane heading to Dodgerland….
Clip, According to Fangraphs, Stephenson employed a cutter and a split-finger FB last season for the first time in his career. That was in addition to his normal arsenal of the 4-seamer, and slider. The interesting thing is threw the cutter more than any other pitch in 2023. The cutter has replace the FB as his main weapon.
To pay someone who’s had difficulties his entire career a multi year 8 figure contract based on 3 months of effectiveness is nuts.
Yeah as I previously said, I think 1 year/$10M with some options would be most appropriate.
1 year/$12.5M guaranteed- $2.5M as the buyout on a 2 years/$27.5M club option or a 1 year/$8M player option.
But as the article states, he will probably secure multiple years at a $9M AAV.
Last I heard, the RedSox are tied to the swirling toilet also……..
“…seven relievers have signed a deal that guarantees more than $10MM since the end of the regular season.”
7 cents owned up front, more than $9,999,999.93 deferred.
…thus making it a contract less than $10M in present day value.
Both seem to be way overpaid at the amounts MLBTR predicts, but at least most people agree Hicks is more desirable. Also, this is way too much, but considering how Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Profar, and IKF have recently gotten similar amounts for being brlow average, I would say an above average reliever is worth more than a below average starter or hitter.
I really want the cubs to sign Jordan Hicks. So they would have Jordan Wicks and Hicks.
I see Hicks getting the bigger contract, but I’m not sure that Stephenson won’t be the better signing.
I’m in the minority that actually likes Stephenson more than Hicks. He has always had the raw stuff to be a shutdown reliever and has had some success off and on since being moved to the bullpen, albeit with little consistency. But the Rays seemed to unlock a whole new level for him last year, and he was the best reliever in baseball for the final four months last season.
Anyone can have a good few weeks, but dominating like that for a full four months straight has me sold on him as all elite reliever going forward. He’s going to cost about 1/3 of what Hader is going to get, and may well end up as the better of the two going forward.
Hicks has a lowish strikeout rate for someone throwing as hard as prime Chapman. I like Stephenson’s new cutter even if that whif rate were to drop.
If the Twins werent pinching pennies I would love to see either one of these guys sign with them. We could really use a solid set up guy for juan duran
I wonder what the market for Aroldis Chapman will be and what kind of contract. We could use a solid lefty in our bullpen…
if the O’s want to make a statement and shorten games to help improve on their pitching in 24, they should not only sign a middling starter (like it appears they’ve already rumored to be pivoting towards for financial reasons in a rising cost market (see Cease trade demands)) but also Stephenson.
with Bautista out, even with Kimbrel, having a strikeout pitcher will give them something that Cano doesn’t. when the ducks are on the pond, you can’t be always pitching to contact.
now, Stephenson to Baltimore will never happen but it seems that in lieu of a true TOP SP, a creative shortening of the game will help bail out the short starts that will invariably occur with an inexperienced rotation that will continue to take its lumps this next season.
Not sure I trust either one. Maybe Hicks has seen less volatility in terms of his year to year ERA and is slightly younger.
True. Both have had yo yo careers up to this point.
As someone mentioned above, Chapman is out there, has a better track record, and probably a whole lot cheaper than Hader.
Twins need a solid lefty for our BP and another high strikeout, reliable set up guy. We have Duran as our closer. Set up guys we have Brock Stewart and Griffin Jax. But after losing Pagan we need some more firepower to fill the innings our starters are likely not going to be pitching….I’m hoping for Aroldis Chapman on a one or two year deal. Hicks would be nice too but I don’t see us being able to afford him with our dwindling payroll situation…..
I would also like to see Varland back in the bullpen after what he showed us he can do there least year. But, in order to keep him in the pen we’re going to need another starter or two…