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2024 Amateur Draft

Giants Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick James Tibbs

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The Giants are in agreement with first-round pick James Tibbs III on a $4.7475MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). That’s below the approximate $5.3MM slot value of the #13 pick.

Pre-draft scouting reports on Tibbs were generally aligned. He ranked between 11th and 15th at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Keith Law’s list at The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel’s ranking at ESPN. Tibbs is a lefty-hitting corner outfielder and first baseman from Florida State. While he doesn’t have the prototypical plus raw power associated with a corner position, he’s a well-rounded offensive player who had one of the top hit tools in the class. Law and BA each praise Tibbs’ ability to handle high-velocity offerings in particular.

The Atlanta native hit well over all three seasons at Florida State. He improved his strikeout and walk profile in each season, culminating in a .363/.488/.777 showing during his junior year. Tibbs walked 58 times against 37 strikeouts while hitting 28 home runs over 66 contests as a junior.

Royals Sign First-Round Pick Jac Caglianone

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The Royals announced the signing of sixth overall pick Jac Caglianone. Caglianone receives a $7.5MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). The selection comes with a slot value of roughly $7.21MM.

Caglianone is a two-way player from the University of Florida. His higher upside professionally is as a position player. Caglianone topped 30 home runs in each of his final two seasons in Gainesville. He hit 35 longballs — second among Division I hitters behind #3 pick Charlie Condon’s 37 — with a .419/.544/.875 slash line as a junior. Caglianone walked at an 18.4% clip while striking out only 8.2% of the time. He has top-of-the-scale raw power that gives him the chance to hit in the middle of a lineup.

Nevertheless, pre-draft scouting reports raised some questions about his pure hitting ability. Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each pointed to concerns about Caglianone’s chase rate as well as a tendency to get pull-oriented in his swing. Caglianone is likely limited to first base defensively, so he’ll need to hit a lot to provide value.

He’s not as highly regarded as a pitching prospect. While he can run his fastball into the upper 90s, his subpar control points to a bullpen future. It seems likely the Royals will prioritize his offensive development in the hope that he moves quickly and establishes himself as a 30+ home run hitter.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/22/24

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We’ve already covered a few significant draft bonuses this evening. A few more $2MM+ signings from Monday:

  • The Phillies are signing second-rounder Griffin Burkholder for $2.5MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). Philadelphia had to go well beyond the approximate $1.35MM slot value associated with the 63rd overall pick to sign him away from a commitment to West Virginia. Burkholder is a righty-hitting outfielder out of a Virginia high school. Pre-draft scouting reports at Baseball America (where he ranked #50 in the class) and from Keith Law of the Athletic (who ranked him 71st) credit Burkholder with excellent speed and the potential for plus raw power at his peak. The question is whether he’ll develop an adequate hit tool in pro ball. He’s a developmental flier for the Phils.
  • Royals second-round pick David Shields landed a $2.3MM bonus, Callis reports (on X). That’s in line with the 41st overall pick’s $2.28MM slot value. Shields is a 6’2″ left-handed pitcher from a Pennsylvania high school who had been committed to Miami. One of the younger pitchers in the class, Shields is a projection arm with good athleticism and low-90s velocity at present. Law ranked him 43rd on his pre-draft list, crediting the southpaw with good curveball feel and a loose arm action.
  • The Rockies agreed to a $2MM bonus with 42nd overall pick Jared Thomas, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (X link). That’s slightly under slot, which was around $2.22MM. Thomas is a lefty-hitting outfielder from the University of Texas. He hit .349/.435/.635 with 16 homers and 18 steals as a draft-eligible sophomore. Thomas split most of his defensive work in Austin between first base and center field, though he’ll likely get a shot at the latter position in pro ball. FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each had him as a top 50 player in the class. Thomas draws praise for his solid power and athleticism, although BA’s scouting report raises questions about his propensity to chase pitches off the plate. Thomas struck out in 20.6% of his plate appearances during his draft year. While that’s a little better than the MLB average, it’s likely to rise in pro ball.

White Sox Agree To Terms With No. 5 Pick Hagen Smith

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The White Sox have deals with their top two draft picks. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports (X links) that Chicago agreed to an $8MM bonus with fifth overall pick Hagen Smith and a $3MM sum with second-rounder Caleb Bonemer.

Smith, a left-hander from the University of Arkansas, was the second pitcher off the board. He and Wake Forest righty Chase Burns were 1-2 among pitchers in some order on virtually every pre-draft rankings. Cincinnati selected Burns with the second pick and signed him to a record $9.25MM bonus. Smith, the final top five draftee to agree to terms, lands the fourth-largest bonus of the class.

The 6’3″ southpaw worked from the rotation in all three seasons in Fayetteville. He had his best season as a junior, turning in a 2.06 earned run average across 84 innings in the SEC. Smith trailed only Burns among Division I pitchers with 161 strikeouts, an incredible 48.6% rate. Even with an elevated 10.3% walk rate, he was far too dominant for most college hitters.

Prospect evaluators credit Smith with a mid-upper 90s fastball and a plus or better slider. Baseball America notes that Smith’s 3/4 arm slot allows his fastball to generate a tough angle at the top of the strike zone. BA raises some questions about the infrequency with which Smith used his changeup in college, while The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that his setup on the first base side of the rubber made it difficult for him to attack right-handed batters on the inner half. Those quibbles (plus a Tommy John surgery which Smith underwent in high school) lead to some risk, but there’s also massive upside given the quality of his top two pitches.

Bonemer is a righty-hitting infielder from a Michigan high school. He’d been slated to attend the University of Virginia but will head to pro ball on an overslot deal. The 43rd overall selection comes with a $2.17MM slot value. Bonemer’s bonus pays him like a late first-round talent. Evaluators praise his power upside and give him a good chance to play somewhere in the infield. Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each raise some concern about his pure hitting ability, with Law’s pre-draft report pointing to Bonemer’s tendency to get pull-oriented in his swing.

A’s Sign First-Round Pick Nick Kurtz

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The Athletics announced they’ve signed fourth overall pick Nick Kurtz. MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (on X) that the former Wake Forest first baseman receives a $7MM bonus. That’s well shy of the approximate $8.37MM slot value, freeing up a decent chunk of money for Oakland to spend on their later picks.

Kurtz has been regarded as one of the best offensive players in the class for the last two years. The left-handed hitter reached base at an absurd .510 clip over his college career. He’s coming off a .306/.531/.763 slash line in his draft year. Kurtz walked at a massive 30% clip while striking out 16.2% of the time as a junior. He popped 22 home runs in 54 games.

Listed at 6’5″ and 240 pounds, Kurtz has obvious power potential. He’s an exceptionally patient hitter, although FanGraphs wrote in their pre-draft report that his approach borders on passive. FanGraphs ranked Kurtz as the #17 prospect in the class. Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and The Athletic’s Keith Law each had him in the back half of the top 10. The primary concern is in Kurtz’s limited defensive profile. While he’s a quality defender at first base, he’s already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. The recent track record for highly-drafted college first basemen (i.e. Andrew Vaughn, Spencer Torkelson) hasn’t been great.

Tigers Agree To Deal With First-Round Pick Bryce Rainer

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The Tigers are in agreement with first-round draftee Bryce Rainer on a $5.8MM bonus, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (X link). That’s narrowly above the approximate $5.71MM slot value for the 11th overall pick.

A 6’3″ high school shortstop from Southern California, Rainer had been committed to the University of Texas. He was the second prep player off the board — Pittsburgh selected Konnor Griffin at #9 — in a college-heavy first round. Rainer was arguably the top high school talent in the class. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the lefty-hitting infielder as the best high schooler and the #6 draft prospect overall. He ranked ninth or tenth on pre-draft rankings at FanGraphs, Baseball America and on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic.

Evaluators credit Rainer with the potential for plus power and the chance to stick on the left side of the infield. Scouting reports universally praise his excellent arm strength which would play at third base even if he outgrows shortstop. There’s some trepidation about his hit tool — Law notes that Rainer doesn’t have great bat speed and hasn’t handled plus velocity well — but there’s clearly significant upside if Rainer sticks at shortstop and can tap into 20+ homer power annually.

Detroit has five prospects in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update, including three players (Jackson Jobe, Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle) in the top 30. Rainer might not immediately jump into the upper half of that list, but he adds another high-upside talent to the farm system.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/21/24

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Sunday was a relatively quiet day for notable draft signings, although one deal of note did come together today:

  • The Rockies have agreed to terms with supplemental first-rounder Brody Brecht on a $2.7MM bonus, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The deal comes in slightly above the $2,452,200 slot value of the 38th overall pick. Prospect evaluators were universal in their agreement that Brecht, a right-hander out of Iowa, is a top-30 talent in this year’s draft class. Baseball America was at the low end of the spectrum, placing him 28th in the class, while Fangraphs (13th) and The Athletic’s Keith Law (16th) both placed him in the top 20. Brecht, who stands a massive 6’4”, 235 lbs, receives praise from evaluators for his mid-to-upper 90s fastball that touches triple digits and a double-plus slider, though control issues and his lack of a strong third pitch have left some evaluators to suggest that he carries substantial relief risk in his profile. In 15 starts with Iowa this year, Brecht showed off his tantalizing upside with a 3.33 ERA and a 37.2% strikeout rate in 78 1/3 frames.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/20/24

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Saturday saw a smattering of players get inked to major bonuses, including Cardinals first-rounder JJ Wetherholt and Cubs first-rounder Cam Smith. A few more notable signings from the past day:

  • The Marlins agreed to a $2.8MM deal with second-rounder Carter Johnson, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. That’s significantly higher than the $1.6MM slot value for the 56th overall pick, and comes on the heels of Miami signing their first-rounder to a deal that came in well below slot value yesterday. Johnson, a high school shortstop committed to Alabama, was ranked fairly highly across the board, with The Athletic’s Keith Law rating him as the 26th-best prospect in this year’s class on the high end while MLB Pipeline ranked him on the low end at 40th in the class. While evaluators suggest he has a good feel for hitting, he’s nearly universally expected to end up at second or third base long-term due in part to his large frame; he’s listed at 6’2”, 180 lbs.
  • The Mets agreed to a $2,031,700 deal with second-rounder Jonathan Santucci today, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The deal is full slot value for the 45th overall selection. Santucci is a college southpaw listed a 6’2”, 205 lbs. Evaluators seem fairly split on the Duke product, with Baseball America (#32) and MLB Pipeline (#37) both ranking the lefty within the top 40 prospects in this year’s draft while evaluators at Fangraphs (#50) as well as Law (#50) and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (#64) are much less bullish. As noted by Law in his writeup of Santucci, the lefty’s stuff is impressive but he’s missed considerable time throughout his college career due to an elbow fracture last spring and a rib injury that cost him a few starts this season. Given Santucci’s notable injury history, it’s not necessarily surprising that evaluators are split on the lefty, and Law adds that “His draft status is probably more a function of what teams see in his medical reports than what the scouts and analysts say.”

Cubs Sign First-Round Pick Cam Smith

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The Cubs have signed third baseman Cam Smith to a $5,070,700 bonus, per Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo. That bonus matches the slot value of the fourteenth overall pick Chicago used to select the infielder. Smith’s bonus will take up the majority of Chicago’s $9,802,300 total bonus pool for this year’s draft.

Smith, 21, was generally expected to go in the middle of the first round, although prospect services held some differences of opinion regarding his exact placement in the class. MLB Pipeline had Smith ranked exactly 14th, while Fangraphs was highest on him at 7th in the class. Baseball America (16th), ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (17th), and The Athletic’s Keith Law (19th) all ranked Smith just below Pipeline but still within the draft’s top 20.

The Florida State product boasts a strong .331/.420/.594 slash line across his time in collegiate ball, although it’s worth noting that he adjusted his swing prior to his second year in the ACC and took a major step forward with an eye-popping .387/.488/.654 slash line in 322 trips to the plate. Listed at 6’3”, 224 lbs, there’s some debate among various prospect services about whether or not Smith will be able to stick at third base long-term, but scouts generally seem to agree that even if he needs to move to an outfield corner or first base his impressive power potential should allow him to stay relevant at positions where more pressure will be put on his bat.

It’s the second season in a row where the Cubs used their first-round pick to select a college infielder, and Smith figures to join 2023 draftee Matt Shaw in the club’s near-term infield plans. Dansby Swanson is locked in at shortstop long-term, and Michael Busch is surely part of the club’s long-term plans amid a fantastic rookie campaign where he’s slashed a 132 wRC+ as the club’s primary first baseman.

Even so, there’s still room in the club’s big league infield mix for an addition or two when Shaw and/or Smith are ready to contribute. Christopher Morel has had an up-and-down season at the plate while struggling badly with the glove at the hot corner, and while Nico Hoerner is currently locked in as the club’s everyday second baseman his contract runs only through the end of the 2026 season. With some scouts suggesting that Smith’s development may take a bit longer than is typically associated with college position players, it’s certainly feasible to imagine playing time opening up for Smith by the time he reaches the majors, even in the event that Shaw is able to position himself as an everyday infielder in his own right.

Cardinals Agree To Sign First-Round Pick JJ Wetherholt

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The Cardinals have reached agreement with shortstop JJ Wetherholt to a $6.9MM bonus, according to Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo (X link).  Wetherholt’s first pro deal is slightly above the $6,823,700 slot value assigned to the seventh overall pick.

Based on pre-draft rankings, St. Louis might’ve gotten a bit of a steal in nabbing Wetherholt with the seventh pick, as the West Virginia shortstop was a consensus top-four selection.  Fangraphs had Wetherholt as the top prospect in the entire draft class, while Baseball America, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and The Athletic’s Keith Law had him third in their rankings, and MLB Pipeline put Wetherholt fourth.  There was some speculation prior to draft night that the Guardians could take Wetherholt with the first overall pick, but when Cleveland opted for Travis Bazzana, Wetherholt then slid all the way to the Cardinals at seventh overall.

It seems possible that teams might’ve been wary of Wetherholt’s recent injury history, namely a lingering hamstring problem that has cropped up in each of the last two years.  He is also listed at 5’10” and 190 pounds, and thus “doesn’t have the prototypical physical tools and frame of a top pick,” as McDaniel writes.  Drafted as a shortstop, he might end up at second base or third base, with the latter position maybe a question mark depending on his arm strength.

Despite these potential red flags, the Cardinals focused on the big pluses of Wetherholt’s all-around hitting skill, as evaluators praised his batting eye, contact ability, raw power, and ability to hit to all fields.  Seen as perhaps the top available hitter in the draft class, this was enough for Fangraphs to put Wetherholt atop their rankings, and their scouting report also feels “he should be a fine second base defender at peak.”

Wetherholt carries even more import within the Cardinals’ draft class since the team forfeited its second-round pick as a condition of the Sonny Gray signing.  Because Gray rejected the Twins’ qualifying offer last autumn and hit the open market, St. Louis had to give up its second-highest pick in the 2024 draft as well as $500K in international pool money as penalty for inking Gray to a three-year, $75MM contract.  Wetherholt’s bonus will cover the majority of the Cardinals’ overall draft bonus pool of $10,213,000.

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