The new year has seen something of a run on mid-rotation arms on the free agent market. Five free agent starters have signed multi-year deals guaranteeing between $28MM and $53MM over the past two weeks alone, and that has left few options for teams hoping to find a capable rotation piece without breaking the bank for a player like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The market isn’t completely devoid of options of that caliber, however. One of the more interesting pieces remaining on the market is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.
Lorenzen began his career with the Reds back in 2015 as a starter, but the then-23-year-old struggled in the role with a brutal 5.40 ERA and matching 5.40 FIP. That difficult rookie season resulted in the righty spending the remainder of his time in Cincinnati has a reliever, while also dabbling in the outfield and as a pinch-hitter. Upon hitting the open market for the first time after the 2021 season, Lorenzen gave up his two-way role in order to return to the starting rotation full time with the Angels. The right-hander performed as a solid, back-end starter in his first season back in a starting role with a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP, though he was limited to just 18 starts by a shoulder strain. Looking at his peripheral numbers, Lorenzen struggled with his command to a 10.5% walk rate during his return to starting in 2022, but struck out a respectable 20.7% of batters faced while generating grounders at an impressive 50.2% clip. That solid, back-end performance earned Lorenzen another shot at starting, this time as a member of the Tigers.
On the surface, Lorenzen’s 2023 season may not seem all that different from his 2022 campaign. While he managed 29 appearances (25 starts), his numbers were largely similar to those he posted the previous season: in his 153 innings of work split between Detroit and Philadelphia, Lorenzen managed a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP that put him more or less in line with his performance as member of the Angels the year prior. Looking under the hood tells a different story, however. Lorenzen’s 18-start stint in Detroit prior to the trade saw the right-hander flash the upside of a solid, mid-rotation arm as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average.
While Lorenzen’s stay in Philadelphia started with an impressive pair of starts that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts. That disastrous finish to Lorenzen’s 2023 season saw him bumped from the Phillies’ rotation and used sparingly during the club’s playoff run this year. While Lorenzen’s brutal final nine appearances last year can’t be entirely discounted, it should be noted that Lorenzen’s innings total of 153 was a career high, and the first time he reached even 100 innings of work in a season since his MLB debut back in 2015. That he was able to maintain his success through 122 2/3 innings of work across 20 starts before things began to unravel figures to lend hope to the possibility Lorenzen can return to that form in 2024 with more careful innings management.
In terms of potential suitors, the market has been entirely quiet regarding the 32-year-old this winter, though it’s easy to see plenty of speculative fits for his services. The Giants and Angels have both shown considerable interest in bolstering their starting pitching corps throughout the winter, though each may look to aim for more impactful additions than Lorenzen. Teams that hope to add to their rotation but figure to face budget crunches this winter, such as the Padres and Red Sox, could see Lorenzen, who MLBTR projected a guarantee of just $22MM over two years for, as a more financially palatable alternative to splurging for a top-of-the-market arm like Montgomery or Snell. The Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Twins are among a host of other teams that stand to benefit from additional rotation depth and could see the veteran righty as a more affordable alternative to other options.
Gwynning
Let’s go, Preller! We could do a whole lot worse at the rotation’s rear…
Motor City Beach Bum
If he pitches like he did in Detroit he’d be a great addition and leave you guys cash for another outfielder.
James Midway
I would love to have him in SD.
UncommonSense
Seems like a good fit for the pads
vtadave
What about Preller’s rear?
bjhaas1977
Worst offseason ever!
letsgooakland123
1yr, 9mm with a 10mm second year team option to OAK. Please?
Forst said he’d raise payroll by about 15mm.
Motor City Beach Bum
Lorenzen pitched very well for Detroit and his first two starts in Philly then the bottom dropped out. I wondered if Detroit might have looked at resigning him given his comfort level with them and pitching coach Chris Fetter. Given his past ace level pitching, I get why the Tigers would take a chance and sign Flaherty over him in the hopes that they catch lightning in a bottle again. I still wouldnt mind the Tigers signing him and trading Manning in a package for another bat. Teams could do a lot worse for their number 4 or 5 starter and he can also work out of the bullpen. Hope he catches on somewhere and gets a chance to start.
D-Nice
Trade Manning to Minnesota for Polanco. Plus something else if necessary. I’m not sure how Polanco would be defensively at 3B, but I’m not too confident about Veirling. I do hope I’m wrong though because we’re probably going to hang on to everyone because he’s probably done spending on SP.
Motor City Beach Bum
Polanco makes sense for Detroit unless they truly believe Jung can play 3B this year.
Rosstradamus
So, he struggled mightily AFTER a 124-pitch No-No, which was one start after his previous season-high 101-pitch count! (He only threw 100+ pitches twice all season long going into that start!) That’s no coincidence my friends!! That abnormally high pitch-count No-No burnt him out for the stretch run I think! Tough call for the manager at the time tho!
suddendepth
Youāre not wrong. I think Rob was right to leave him in to finish though. You donāt get opportunities often to do something historic on a baseball field.
jumps
You are not wrong at all. But even if you watch that game back, the Nationals barely missed some monster shots. Itās surprising how neither Dom Smith or Joey M didnāt each hit 1-2 homers in that game.
They say itās a game of inches and thatās how it was for Lorenzen. If he didnāt locate his pitches well, he struggled mightily. While Comerica isnāt the park it was for pitchers a few years ago, Lorenzen was certainly not favored by pitching in Philly.
If a team can manage his pitch count and you get him in a pitcher friendly park (SF, OAK, MIA, SEA, etc.) I think he could do well. Even returning to Detroit could be an option.
Tigers3232
I don’t think the workload of that game really benefited him. However while with Tigers nearly all of his success came against AL Central rivals. The lone 2 exceptions being Mets and A’s. Against Giants, ATL, ARI, and even Rockies he got tagged pretty good. I’d say facing a tougher schedule was his biggest issue.
This one belongs to the Reds
He was better out of the bullpen in Cincy. I wouldn’t mind seeing him back there but I’m sure someone will think that makes us entitled or something…even though the last postseason series win was 1995.
Joe says...
You will be told what players you can want and you will like it. LOL
LFGMets (Metsin7) #ConsistentlyBannedBaseballExpert
I think hes worth a 3 year 10 mil a year deal. Thats 5th starter money which is what he is. I’d be happy with him as my fifth starter
Fishfan 3
I’d love the Marlins to sign him.
splinkysf
Please donāt come to SF, Ross Stripliā¦I mean Michael Lorenzen
jimmy ray hart
Ha – good observation
Iām not one of those Farhan hatersā¦ I always believe that GMās are doing the best they can to build a teamā¦ itās so easy to second-guess themā¦ so I donāt
However you are correct ā¦ any team can can only have so many players on āa one year contracts with potentialsā
Iām hoping the Giants just let some of their rookie pitchers develop because itās going to be pretty hard to compete with the Dodgers over the next couple years if we donāt develop our own young team as we did in 2010s
splinkysf
And just like Stripling, he will eventually fall out of the rotation into a long man / opener role. Iām not opposed to openers at all so long as he cover innings by keeping the ball on the ground, but if they do add more SP which I agree they donāt need, Iād actually rather it be a one year deal for a ground ball guy and add Chapman to clean up the defense
UncommonSense
Chicken Strip is too busy day trading to pay attention to his pitching
thecrocusesareinbloom
Remember that brief period where Lorenzen was trying to be a two-way player? That was fun.
wileycoyote56
Iād love to see Detroit give him 2 yrs with an option with enormous incentives to get him to a10-12 million a year range if he pitches well, but a low minimum if he doesnāt. He really fits in with the team and could be a good starter/ reliever for Tigers. 5 million with 7 million in incentives per season, with an option that has an automatic trigger if he hits innings target. Tigers have money to gamble and heās worth the risk
Tigers3232
Incentives can only be attached to awards and workloads. They can’t be attached to performance.
Goin' to Sheetz
“Mute” doesn’t work anymore. Has anyone else came across this?
riffraff
sheetz – there is something wrong with the mute button…been muting anything with king or joel in name and it says i can’t see their comments but they are still there.
King123
slashfilm.com/wp/wp-content/images/empirestrikesba…
AHH-Rox
Hasnāt worked right for a couple of years on the iPhone app.
just_thinkin
This has been a useful thread for the old mute list. All y’all are going on there lol
riffraff
good luck – it doesn’t seem to be working
GoGreen
I think Lorenzen will pick it back up and regain his form easily, probably even continue to progress as a pitcher. Looks like he takes great care of himself and his body. Dude looks like an amazing athlete.
Champ world champion Texas Rangers
Texas Ranger
Dmac13
I can see him going to baltimore..Jordan lyles, Gibson now lorenzen kinda fits the mold
Goin' to Sheetz
I’d be fine with that at this point. If Elias isn’t making a deal with Seattle or Florida, then Lorenzen is, at the least, intriguing.
Motor City Beach Bum
Let me get you back on track. Do the Cards need to sign someone like Lorenzen or do you think they still need a guy closer to the top rung like Snell or Montgomery. Or are they good with what they have.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Despite signing a few SP, the Cardinals still do not have an ace. Would behoove them to pony up whatever cheese it would take to re-sign Montgomery or sign Snell. I like the rest of their team, and especially since the NL Central figures again to be the weak sister in the NL.
raulp
Can perform as a back end starter for 130-150 innings of +4.00 ERA or as a reliable set-up reliever for 50-60 games of +3.00 ERA.
Human Being
The last time I’ve seen Michael Lorenzen in person was when his parents brought him to see their grandparents who lived next door. Michael was about six weeks old.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
I would like to see him return to Philly in a swingman role. That’s where I see him initially. But even though our five-man rotation is set, a team can never have too much pitching depth. To wit, I’m not expecting all of Philly’s starters to make 30 starts.
Mikey P
I think this is maybe more sentimental then baseball minded but I would have loved to have seen him back in Cincy. Ship has sailed at this point.
jhomeslice
Dodgers should have signed him instead of Paxton. I’ll bet he doesn’t get much more money than Paxton got, and throws 80 more innings.
Champ world champion Texas Rangers
He got 4.5 million for Texas with 2.5 incentives steal for rangers.