The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Cubs re-signing Cody Bellinger (1:40)
- How did he end up with a short-term deal? (3:35)
- Why would he not take a deal of around six years, $150MM? (5:00)
- Was this about Bellinger’s Statcast metrics? (8:00)
- Would Bellinger have gotten a megadeal in a different winter? (11:15)
- Is there a gulf widening between what superstars can make and what mid-market players can make? (15:55)
- How does the Bellinger deal affect expectations for the other Boras guys? (19:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- We have some brand-name starting pitchers who will be signing contracts after Spring Training games have begun. Historically, how have previous late signings fared after starting their seasons so late? (27:00)
- Does the Aaron Nola deal look terrible in hindsight? In my opinion, he’s not as good as Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery and Nola got more than every pitcher except for the Dodgers’ guys. Do the Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodríguez deals look smarter than Nola’s too? (30:30)
- What is the feeling around Juan Soto and where he might be in 2025? I feel like he’s gonna stick with the Yankees but everyone seems to think it’s a one-year location for him. (34:10)
Check out our past episodes!
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
- Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Well after being about 8-9 years and almost $150MM over with your prediction, attempting an explanation is in order.Irrelavant- but in order.
The Athletic listed all the people who predicted Bellinger’s deals and no one had him getting less than 6 years/100m
Consensus does not begat conciseness. Seems everybody jumped off the same bridge.
cguy – Rather than playing Monday Morning Quarterback, why don’t you try to justify your belief that everyone who predicted over $200M was foolish.
Bellinger is only 28 years old, has 22.1 Career WAR, plays all three OF positions and 1B, and is coming off a 4.4 WAR season in which he finally proved he’s healthy.
Now compare that to recent contracts such as $292M for Devers (18.8 WAR, Age 27) and $325M for Seager (21.2 WAR, Age 28) … and Devers wasn’t even a free agent.
Add into the equation the dearth of free agent position players this offseason, and the MLBTR staff was plenty justified in their projection of Bellinger’s contract. It ended up being a lot less for one reason, Boras.
Seager is signed thru age 37. And Devers is signed thru age 36.
In order for Belli to get the 12 years that MLB-R predicted, he has to play thru age 39. With his inconsistency and health background, I thought that was way, way too long.
Joe – Don’t get hung up on years, it depends on the total guaranteed amount. In reality years is irrelevant, total guaranteed PV dollar amount is the only important number.
Players will accept a lower AAV to help the team out, if the team is willing to give extra years. Which is exactly what the Padres did with Xander.
When MLB-R was making their prediction of 12 years, I doubt they came to that number by adding CBT manipulations. They basically just got it wrong, same with Chapman.
It happens.
Joe – My point is their 12-year prediction doesn’t matter because they had a $22M AAV.
Yeah they got it wrong, but their prediction was justifiable at the time. It’s hard to predict an agent totally botching the handling of his client’s negotiations.
I almost mentioned that, The AAV was more than reasonable. It was just the 12 years that was insane. $200M/8 would not have fazed me at all.
How many had him getting 12 years and $250+? There is being off and then there is being no where near. Hardly the, “same bridge”.
At least these guys are explaining why they think they missed the mark as opposed to Steve, who said he still thinks Bellinger can get $200m next offseason.
Darragh mentioning that he always thinks teams should spend more money is a consensus/near-consensus opinion for the writers on this site. It has very much become an echo chamber in that regard. The problem is, that isn’t reality so you have a lack of push back when you start floating contracts like the Bellinger prediction.
wasnt – Boras was demanding over $200M as recently as December.
With less teams looking to buy plus a suspect free agent (2020-2022 seasons), makes sense that Bellinger did not command what was expected. Also more data on 30+ year old players, affecting Chapman. Less buyers also affecting Snell and Montgomery who’d otherwise receive their demand in any other year.
Nola’s deal from the get-go looked awful. I do hope, however, that I’m wrong. He’s been solid and perhaps he can be the type of pitcher to make adjustments, aging well and continuing to be a #2 or #3.
If you think Snell and Montgomery are better starting pitchers than Nola then you clearly do not understand the value of a starting pitcher. You probably think the Tampa Rays are a hub of genius, the Rays and all their World Series trophies.
Aaron Nola had a 4.46 ERA/96 ERA+. in 193 innings.
Montgomery had a 3.20 ERA/138 ERA+ in 188 innings.
Don’t have to be a Tampa Bay Ray to think Montgomery had a better season. Now if you think Nola’s 2023 was an outlier and he’s a good bet going forward, that’s fine, but he had a pretty mediocre year
“you clearly do not understand the value of a starting pitcher”
Better stuff does not make you a better pitcher. Also not a Tampa Bay Ray.
ruthless,
Heels clearly understands the value of a starting pitcher far beyond mere mortals’ comprehension.
“Jason Werth will totally transform the way Major League teams view outfielders” – Scott Boras.
Monty has no track record. Did great in spots last season. Let’s see what the future holds.
178iq
Monty has no track record.
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In the past three season
157 IPs 3.83 ERA 3.69 FIP
178 IPs 3.48 ERA 3.81 FIP
189 IPs 3.20 ERA 3.56 FIP
How is that “no track record”?
Joe – You stole my data from yesterday ;O)
Fact is, Monty’s been trending in the right direction for the past three years …. ERA continues to go down to elite level, and IP/GS continues to go up towards workhorse level.
Those who are trashing him are a joke.
I know he had lower IPs earlier in his career, but Monty’s career FIPs are about the most consistent that I have ever seen.
Joe – I’m trying not to get my hopes up, but I would feel comfortable giving him a $150M contract. Monty is low-risk IMO.
I think Henry has done a great job overall, but have a couple of current gripes.
1-We’re trying to create a sustainable system, which is great. But the reason for sustainability is so that you can buy those positions that you cannot create yourself.
2-If we don’t sign pitching today, what are we going to do next year? If Gio is good, he’s gone. Pivetta will be a FA. We have no close prospects. So is it going to be Bello, Crawford, and hoping that all three of Winc, Whitlock & Houck develop into starters?
That’s borderline insane.
Joe – I really hope they re-sign Pivetta before he becomes a free agent. Unless he regresses, which I doubt.
“If someone were to say that Yu Darvish would come in, average 200 innings, less than a 4.00 ERA and be a solid two or three starter, they would be elated,. The reality is, that is exactly what Edwin Jackson has done.” Another Boras pearl
Mlb fan: that is one of my favorite Boras quotes of all-time.
Sorry but Aaron Nola is better than Jordan Montgomery. By far.
Uh just because he has money to counter sue doesn’t mean he is innocent. Do you not understand America? He wouldn’t have dropped the case if he was innocent
Stupid mobile app
He wouldn’t have dropped the case if he was innocent
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The same goes for her, and much, much more. He had nothing to gain financially, and she could’ve gotten millions. And the only reason he sued was to get access to her texts. And that’s why she and her lawyer quit.
You can’t ask friends what you can steal, and then convince a jury that you never intended to steal anything.
Keep defending a woman beater, how macho
He never beat her, and you know that. You just cannot admit that you were wrong.
Ubaldo – You don’t get any points for defending guilty women.
Did you not see the bed video which proves she was perfectly fine and actually quite happy. Or are you simply choosing to ignore it because sides matter more to you than right or wrong?
Bauer is a d-bag, that’s what matters. He’s admitted beating women that “like it.” You don’t get any points for defending a scumbag, just like I don’t get “points” for attacking the sycophants that want that jagoff on any team.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Bauer is a d-bag, that’s what matters.
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That’s beyond insane. You don’t like the type of adult entertainment that he engages in, so his life should be ruined?
I don’t mute many people, but something is wrong with you. Take care.
Apologies for my crappy sound quality. I was fussing with these new computer speakers I have and literally just forgot to use my Blue Yeti microphone. Normally sounds much better.
Boras with an interesting press conference this afternoon with Bellinger and Jed Hoyer. For those that want to understand some of the b3hind the scene stuff that went on or is going on it’s worth your 25 minutes
Will Marlins sign JD?
JD Drew. His price fits in the Marlins budget ( now that he’s 48 years old).
And Boras said “Drew is a player that comes along every 20 years. not even Barry Bonds compares to JD.”
Scott Borat; GREAT SUCCESS Cody. Less than half of what I told you’d get – HIGH FIVE!!!!
Scott Borat, is that a Sacha Baron Cohen character?
If Aaron Nola never pitches another inning for the Phillies they still break even lifetime 32WAR for 230M is fair.
Probably the best free agent in baseball is sitting home….Trevor Bauer……Why is this site so afraid of even mentioning his name?
Clearly there are players playing that have done far worse stuff (NFL, MLB, etc).
Because he’s a shyte person and where there’s smoke there’s fire? Why are some of you so obsessed with a woman-beater? Creepy
Maybe because he’s guilty of absolutely nothing. Bauer, Steve Clevenger and Anthony Bass get blackballed from playing due to MLB’s caving in to wokeness.
Insane – fitting. Bass is a POS bigot. Bauer is a beater. Frankly, Aroldis Chapman and Ozuna should be “black-balled” too. Clevenger I haven’t cared enough to follow whatever went on with him.
But Bauer is an a$$ and Bass is reprehensible (remember his wife’s privilege tantrum about her derelict mothering?). None of that is “catering to woke” – it’s just recognizing that there are consequences for behavior that is toxic and either harms or has the potential to harm others. Society has always has standards. Thankfully, they’re more rational now, and don’t accept this kind of garbage behavior as excusable.
Bass is reprehensible (remember his wife’s privilege tantrum about her derelict mothering?)
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1-I’ve worked with people whose morals I don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean they no longer get to work.
2-Denying someone a job because you don’t like the way their spouse raises the kids is beyond insane.
Did you miss the part where she made that up to try to get money and was dumb enough to admit it in text messages?
Now do the other two women
Now do the other two women
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I have absolutely no problem with either the police or MLB investigating the other two allegations.
But how about you simply admitting that this one was a setup?
where there’s smoke there’s fire?
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LOL! So if you had a family member on trial for their lives, is that what you want the jury to think? “So-and-so made the allegation, so it must be true”?
Three allegations… hmm. MLB thought there was enough to warrant an immense suspension. But go on, keep defending the guy that beats women to keep a stiffy. Very upstanding.
Bauer is setting things up perfectly for a major lawsuit if he doesn’t get signed. He offered to play for minimum and has been found guilty of nothing because she lied,
But go on, keep defending the guy that beats women to keep a stiffy.
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1-The evidence shows that he never did that.
2-If you want someone in your family to go to jail sometime in the future, based on something that was clearly a setup, good luck with that.
False equivalence. We know he likes to smack them.
RE: Bass, playing in MLB is not just a job. It’s a privilege. A privilege which he absued on multiple occasions. He can still work. In the minors, independent ball, Mexican League, KBO, Japan… but no MLB team will touch that d-bag, and rightfully so. RE: his spouse, he demanded that airline attendant be fired because his wife couldn’t control her kids. “Beyond insane” to associate him poorly with that episode is just a silly comment on your part. But all of your comments have been, so I’m not surprised.
Arnold – LOL. He’s not owed a contract.
We know he likes to smack them.
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No, you don’t. You listened to her complaint and believed, which is fine. Then exculpatory evidence was presented, but you don’t possess the self-confidence to admit that you were wrong.
I am not a fan of PC or woke culture myself. Defending people just because someone branded it as woke because you worship someone with no morals. Is the very definition of insanity.
you worship someone with no morals.
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Nonsense. I doubt even a single person in here worships him. It is more a matter of law & order, and justice, and stuff like that.
She has more than admitted her guilt, and she belongs in jail.
Are we going to have another Kimbrel/Keuchel situation?
I thought Nola was very slightly high, but that was the price to be paid for locking the guy in. When teams were tripping over themselves to hand out money, it looked smart.
Now, obviously not. But Monty & Snell will still get paid decent money, and Nola is still a pretty good pitcher.