Cody Bellinger is back with the Cubs. Chicago officially announced his re-signing on a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has scheduled a press conference for Wednesday to welcome him back to the fold. Chicago cleared the necessary 40-man roster spot with this afternoon’s trade sending Bailey Horn back to the White Sox.
Bellinger, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $80MM. The deal pays him $30MM for the upcoming season. He’ll have a $30MM salary for 2025 and be paid $20MM if he remains on the contract in 2026. The deal contains an approximate $26.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes.
Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year deal with the club last winter and delivering an excellent platform campaign. In 556 trips to the plate, the 28-year-old slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases while splitting time between center field and first base for Chicago. That performance earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting and seemingly left him poised to cash in this winter with a major contract. MLBTR ranked Bellinger as the #2 free agent in this year’s class behind only two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, predicting a 12-year, $264MM deal for the outfielder in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.
As Bellinger’s offseason dragged on, it became apparent a $200MM+ commitment would not be in the cards. In his recent Wednesday mailbag, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $90MM deal with a pair of opt-outs. While Bellinger entered the winter with plenty of big market clubs seemingly in the running for his services including the Giants, Yankees, and Blue Jays, each pivoted in other directions throughout the month of December: San Francisco landed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to patrol center, Juan Soto was shipped to the Bronx to fill the left-handed void in their outfield mix, and the Blue Jays changed course after missing out on Shohei Ohtani to instead focus on smaller deals for players such as Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors outside of the incumbent Cubs, though his free agency continued into Spring Training as his camp held out for a long term deal while the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained steadfast in waiting out the market. Ultimately, Chicago was rewarded for its patience, as the club will retain Bellinger’s services for at least the 2024 campaign on a relatively low-cost deal similar to the three-year, $105MM deal fellow Boras Corporation client Carlos Correa signed with the Twins two offseasons ago.
A number of factors beyond his relatively small number of suitors likely contributed to Bellinger signing a short-term deal. Excellent as he was in 2023, the slugger struggled badly while contending with shoulder issues and a fractured fibula during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Though he managed to take the field for 900 plate appearances across the two seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 during that time, a far cry from the career .273/.364/.567 slash line he entered the 2021 season with that earned him Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.
While Bellinger’s 
strong and healthy 2023 campaign certainly helped to assuage the concerns brought on by his dismal campaigns in the prior two seasons, a look at his advanced metrics reveals some cause for concern that the 28-year-old’s 2023 campaign may not be entirely sustainable. While Bellinger’s career-best batting average last season was supported by a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, it was also propped up by a .319 BABIP that eclipsed his career .277 mark entering the 2023 season by more than 40 points.
That leap in good batted ball fortune came in spite of unusually low contact quality peripherals. Per Statcast, Bellinger’s average exit velocity, barrel rate, and Hard-Hit percentage were all well below average, landing in the 22nd, 27th, and 10th percentile respectively among qualified major leaguers. Taken together, those peripheral numbers left Bellinger with a roughly league average xwOBA of just .330 last year, 40 points below his excellent .370 wOBA. Between his pronounced struggles in recent seasons and the concerning peripherals underlying his 2023 return to form, it’s not a complete shock that Bellinger would land a short-term, opt-out heavy deal that preserves flexibility rather than a lengthy deal that maximizes guarantee.
Such a contract could set Bellinger up for a much more significant payday in the future. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in his recent look at the possibility of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually young for a free agent and, as such, may be uniquely suited for a short-term arrangement. If Bellinger can maintain a similar level of production to his 2023 rebound, he’ll be a near lock to opt out of the remaining two years and $50MM on his deal and return to free agency, where he would be marketing his age-29 campaign and be unimpeded by the Qualifying Offer, which the Cubs extended to Bellinger this winter. Next year’s free agent class is also likely to benefit from additional certainty regarding the ongoing Diamond Sports bankruptcy, which has impacted the TV deals of some contenders such as the Rangers and Twins. Those clubs were joined in mostly standing pat by big spending clubs such as the Padres and Mets that faced exorbitant luxury tax bills last year and took this offseason as an opportunity to reset.
In the meantime, Bellinger will return to Chicago, where he immediately improves the club’s lineup and odds of contention in a crowded NL Central dramatically. Bellinger’s 134 wRC+ and .525 slugging led all Cubs hitters with at least 100 trips to the plate last year, while he ranked fourth in terms of on-base percentage. The slugger also provides a much-needed lefty bat to a lineup who complements righty hitters in the lineup such as Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner. In addition to providing the club’s lineup with potentially impactful offense, Bellinger’s versatility offers the Cubs flexibility as they look to incorporate their bevy young hitters into the big league lineup on a regular basis.
Infielder Michael Busch is likely to enter the season as the club’s regular first baseman after the club acquired him from the Dodgers in a deal last month, leaving Bellinger to begin the season as the club’s everyday option in center field. With that being said, top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong lurks after making his big league debut last September and sports 80-grade defense in center field. The club’s reunion with Bellinger takes pressure off Crow-Armstrong, who went hitless in 19 plate appearances during his cup of coffee last fall, to immediately produce at the big league level and allows the Cubs to continue his development at Triple-A to open the year.
Should Crow-Armstrong prove himself ready to take on the everyday job in center sometime this season, Bellinger could shift to an outfield corner, first base, or even DH depending on the health and production of the rest of the lineup. One possibility for the Cubs would be either Busch or Morel establishing themselves as a capable defender at third base, allowing the other to handle DH duties. In that case, Bellinger would be able to move to first base and make room for Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in center, though that’s just one possible option for a Cubs team that could even see 2023 first-round Matt Shaw or top corner outfield prospect Owen Caissie debut sometime this year after strong performances in Double-A last season.
The reunion with Bellinger likely serves as a capstone for an offseason that saw Chicago also land left-hander Shota Imanaga and veteran relief arm Hector Neris in free agency. Club chairman Tom Ricketts recently indicated that the club was unlikely to exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold this winter, and RosterResource projects the club for a $234MM payroll in 2024 for CBT purposes, less than $3MM below the first $237MM threshold. That means a reversal of the stance would be nearly mandatory for the club to make further additions this winter, barring a trade that clears salary elsewhere on the roster.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cubs and Bellinger had agreed to a three-year, $80MM contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Quick, on the spot coverage at MLBTR today…
Someone had to be the last to report it.
Fly the “W”!
MLBTR may have been slow with reporting this signing but they were fast at getting their 264 million prediction out. So fast they didn’t even look to see if he was hitting the ball hard again.
You obviously didn’t watch his at bats.
He hit the ball hard to all parts of the field.
With two strikes however, he shortened his swing, choked up and focused on putting the ball in play.
With that approach came career low strikeout numbers, with softer contact albeit aided by an an above average babip.
I wouldn’t be concerned about the hard contact as he can still hit the ball hard, now will he maintain that approach after finding out it lowered his demand or will he revert back to striking out more with a lower BA with intent to increase his power numbers to get a bigger payday in the next 2 years?
Belli won’t go back to MVP levels even if he tried that same approach. This is the best version of himself. He’s a very good player but he’s not going to be a $250MM player.
i think he’ll opt out and lock in a 130-150MM pact next year. That’s good money but he’ll be taking an AAV haircut to lock in long term cash.
He just got $80 million for 3. If all Bellinger does is repeat 2023 he will get the $30 million he is getting for 2024 and he will get 10-11 years. Both of those are a given.
I was thinking that they must have been at church
larry – The only one who was at church was Boras, praying for forgiveness. His stall tactic and unreasonable demands cost yet another of his clients.
After this offseason I think the “Boras Corporation” will be taking a major hit in landing future clients. Not just because of the smaller than expected contracts, but because players and their families don’t want to go into spring training late and have to scramble to find housing with their new team etc.
Your main points are correct, but still, it’s hard for us normal people to see a contract like this as anything but life-altering. Give me a guaranteed 30 million dollars I’m laughing all the way to the bank
Was Borris really overestimating the market? Even MLBTR had a high prediction. If I were a GM, this is the best deal I would offer any of the Borris 4, 3 now.
The money in major league baseball is always life altering and in no way relates to the average person’s salary!
Fever Pitch Guy
Yeah Boras screwed up big time this year. It’s his job to read the market and react to it sooner. Huge loss for his client. Boras could have easily got over $200 mil if he was just reasonable while negotiating with teams. Greed will bite your ass.
Ridiculous comment. Boras did nicely getting a guy coming coming off a rebound year a overpay contract. A guy who is HHHUGE risk to plummet. A guy nobody was going to pay. I think you are dismissed.
No one was giving $200M to Bellinger, that was a god awful prediction
@king – you mean the guy who won rookie of the year, an MVP and provides GG defense at two positions and received MVP votes last year?
Everyone has a down year or two. His ceiling is at the MVP level with 5 tools and still young.
@fever – spot on.
Fever Pitch Guy: Boras has done nothing for which he needs to seek forgiveness, and believe me, an $80 million contract won’t hurt his business.
I really don’t get all the animosity toward him from fans, although the owners apparently plant plenty of misinformation about him in the media.
No concrete proof of this, however.
padam,
Bellinger has demonstrated a very high ceiling and a very low floor. It certainly will be interesting to see how he does this season.
I wouldn’t be laughing. I would be so nervous I would wreck and probably kill myself on the way to the bank.
Baseballs History is littered with Cody Bellingers. Overpays for flashes .
Baseball history is littered with hundreds, or even thousands, of players who have been underpaid for the first six or seven years of their careers.
Baseball history is littered – actually flooded – with thousands of players who were underpaid for their entire careers.
Almost every player, especially big stars, who played before the reserve clause was ruled out in 1975 was illegally restrained from free agency and significantly underpaid.
So u actually believe players are excited to have their signings drawn out to the last moment bc Boras is demanding very high values and then accepting much less. Yes $80 mil is a lot but most predictions were for a much longer contract, with only a slightly lower AAV….and my guess is this is Bellinger saying enough already rather than Boras saying this is the best i can get!! Players dont like having their families having no idea where they are going to be living this season into March and i think thats where this will hurt Borus the most tbh
Still generational money for a guy who had a chance at more yes… but his career earnings will be very respectable regardless. Talent is there. Seems like a good attitude kinda guy. Happy for him and his family.
If he could’ve easily got Belli $200 MM, Cody would’ve signed sooner. Hence the long drawn out offseason & the shorter contract.
Why are you so hung up on defending everything about him? Guy is a great agent who also wants teams to overpay then starts whining or has in the past. It must be collusion. I don’t want to give you more money or outbid against myself in order to give you what you want or promised your players. So it must be colluding. 1987. 1994. Sure. But it’s not always collusion.
Players and agents can share what they were offered by every team but if the owners do it they are in collusion.
I’m not going to defend cheap owners. I will defend owners who realize that the Rays model. The way the Indians were signing pre arb players in the mid 90s when they had a great team. A win-win for both sides. Boras is not into that. He could care less. He would love MLB to be like some European soccer leagues where maybe a few teams have all the money and it’s all too heavy.
The owners who were shortsighted back in the 70s when they introduced arbitration as part of the negotiations in 1973 after Reggie held out against Finley prior to ST. And how it would snowball into the monster that it did. Along with the 1976-77 mistakes in not taking Miller’s offer if 10 years then you get FA. They are all gone.
The players have more power and then get mad when owners don’t spend more.
@RGR: It’s not even March yet, so Opening Day is still more than four weeks away.
And many players have homes where their children attend school, so they just go to spring training and travel with their team while their families stay put until school is done in June, if not for the whole season.
This is the life players and their families sign up for, and it doesn’t last long for most of them.
You can obviously say whatever you like, but there’s no reason to go looking for issues that don’t really exist.
Neither an overpay or a flash. Hoyer beat Boras. Simple as that. Cubs get Bellinger for 1 year, which is all they needed him for.
Agreed. He could of been had on a 1 yr deal for 18 to 20 million. No way I give him a 3 yr, 80 million dollar deal whe. There is a big chance he plummets once again
I doubt Boras worded it that way… He probably told him… “You know the Cubs will always be there if you get tired of waiting for your 11 year deal.
Yeah, I think Boras did fine for his client. If Bellinger has a good year he will opt out, and still go after 170 mil next year.
No everyone does not have two consecutive awful years when they are around 25 years old.
Too early. What happens if he has another year like24? He opts out…this is a good deal for both as it allows Bellinger to try again but also gives him $80m in insurance protection against a career injury
lol, MLBTR said 12 years? 12 years never happens, how can that be respected reporting?
When deciding on what a player is worth, ceiling is part of the conversation but floor and consistency can’t be ignored. Bellinger is one for three.
Bravo Blue Baron! Astute comment as always!
Cubs fans will rejoice in that his overpay makes up for history, if he takes a step back, opts in, and the Cubs don’t spend in the next two off seasons as their window should be opening. I’m watching Detroit be hesitant because of the Baez contract, as their window is open.
Maybe he was setting the market not overestimating the market.
I’m also sure Bellinger is looking forward to going thru the uncertainty all over again next year.
I would love for Detroit to spend, but this wasn’t the winter to do it. Because Free Agency didn’t have much to offer. Even the top guys all have serious question marks. Plus, I think because of their injuries, another season of seeing if our youngsters can take another step forward will be good. Skubal is already there, I have confidence in Greene and Torkelson. The jury is still out on the others though, IMHO.
Hey everyone, no littering
And get off my lawn
Padam: Bellinger did not just have a couple of down years. He was godawful for two straight years. If not for his previous great career, he would be selling chevies in Indiana. Wish him the best but the Cubs did the best thing and Bellinger and Boras are happy, I am sure. No team was ever going to pay Bellinger $200 million. Period.
There absolutely is concrete proof of it. The Yankees wanted to sign Stephen Drew about a decade ago. They started negotiating with Boras in December and he made ridiculous demands. The Yankees pivoted and Drew missed spring training and was never the same player again. The Yankees ended up getting him at the deadline from Boston anyway after he had to sign a one year deal just to get on a team, which was less than the QO Boras turned down. Also when Scherzer first hit free agency for the first time Boras did the same thing. He got very lucky when he talked the Nationals into signing him for that expensive contract that he actually lived up to. Boras had to go to the Nationals ownership and talk them into signing him after every club that was interested in him pivoted. Boras is a stain on baseball. He got the Yankees Hank Steinbrenner to bid against himself for ARod which made George replace him with Hal. Now instead of the good brother that cares more about winning than money we have the biggest cheapskate in MLB that still has the second dollar he ever made.
If they get the TV revenue figured out before next winter, Bellinger may opt out even if he has a good season. You don’t see that too often.
Two Words
Direct Deposit
@D-Nice: He’s more likely to opt out if he has a good season, not less.
King B every major sports publication had Bellinger getting 200m so while I agree he is a huge risk that is the reality of late last year
I think bellinger did excellent and Boras will be more than fine as a billionaire
@gbs – it will be. But since he has talent, I err to the positive since he’s already proven himself at that stage. And now that he has monetary motivation, I see him a bit more focused than the down days while a Dodger.
Buddha – You call this an overpay? Bwahahaha!
And no offense, but why do so many “Kings” here post silly comments. Hmmm…
No need to go to the bank. Use direct deposit.
I cant say that i disagree with his tall tactics costing a few players lately some of this falls on the player aswell. Im 100% sure the jays offered him more then 80 and i bet the giants did aswell. Im sure he got 6 year 150 offers or very close from both clubs. So unless the California native And family didnt want to play in the bay or Canada no matter what he carries some blame dor turning down offers aswell
Of course he’ll opt out if he has a good season! That would be his only path out. He surely will not walk if it’s a down year, and leave $30 mil on the table.
As I cubs fan I’m thinking about how Bellinger can have just as good of a season (but not too great) as possible to make the decision to opt out really hard, while the Cubs make it to the NLCS (lol, I know I’m an optimist), so he decides to stick around, and then the cubs win the World Series in 2025 and Cody Bellinger wins the MVP that season and opts out, and also hires a new agent. Perfect scenario…
lol keep telling yourself that
@NicoHoerndawg: What difference does it make for you who he chooses to represent him?
It’s an even bigger issue for the players themselves to be late for Spring Training than how it affects their families.
Coys, it would be great to know who you’re responding to. That goes for many comments.
There are many posts, this one being a great example, with a multitude of comments and back-and-forth discussions, so it’s nearly impossible to know who is responding to whom.
I don’t know if anyone is interested in defending everything about Boras. But he has a job to do, representing his clients, and he’s generally very successful. He’s also an annoying blowhard, which certainly biases many fans against him.
That being said, given players are underpaid the first 6-7 years of their careers, some by massive amounts, I have no issue with Boras pushing pay for current and future free agents – his and other agents’.
spud, not everyone is injured for two consecutive years when they are around 25 years old.
fox, I’m not sure why Bellinger would be selling Chevys in Indiana. He’s from Arizona.
D-Nice, Correa opted out and ended up with $235M over 7 years between his two Twins contracts.
@Lanidrac: They train all year, and agents like Boras operate facilities for his clients to work out in, so being a week two late for spring training is a non-issue.
Baron, because Boras is a jerk and a meanie, and he took Nico’s lunch money once… apparently.
LOL
$200MM to Belli was always laughable to me.
If you can’t spell his name when its in the article, your opinion means exactly squat.
Baron, that is exactly right. Boras just got his client an AAV $8 million higher than the most aggressive projections. An AAV that sets his value for future deals. He got him a deal that gets Bellinger $80 million guaranteed if his career reverts to 2021-2022 levels and that puts him back on the free agent market next offseason and in line to get a 10/300 deal if he repeats his 2023 production.
That was some incredible positioning by Boras.
Rgr, the most aggressive predictions were for a $20-22 million AAV over 8-12 years. Boras got his client $30 million in 2024, which sets the base level for negotiation of a new deal when he opts out after 2024 as long as Bellinger is able to repeat his 2023 season.
Boras just turned those $200-264 million predictions into a likely probability of $300+ million as long as Bellinger can repeat 2023 levels of production.
@Blue Baron Self training does not help as much as actual competition in actual games. That’s why there are rehab assignments during the regular season as well as why we have Spring Training games in the first place.
Plus, the evidence has clearly shown that players who miss part or all of Spring Training, even while still healthy, often perform poorly early in the regular season.
Boras did extremely well for his client. 30 million a year. I wouldn’t have gone over 20 million. He gets 20 million year 3. And if he some how starts hitting the ball hard again he gets to opt out. Unfortunate the Padres Angels weren’t spending this year. And the Mets got a real gm now. Or he would have gotten much more money long term.
@baron: why does it bother YOU, that he thinks that way! I don’t care why either of you feel like you do.
Lanidrac, all the more reason for teams to sign players before spring training begins. Maybe they need to make better offers sooner.
@gbs42 Or the players need to lower their damands sooner.
I think the stuff with Correra last year hasn’t helped Boras’s already shaky reputation with the owners.
@Dogbone: Why does it bother YOU enough to comment if you don’t care why we feel as we do?
I certainly don’t care what you think.
If Belli opts in next year for $30 million and the Cubs win the 2025 World Series and he is the MVP, Belli will 100% opt out for 2026 and it will have been worth every penny of the $60 million for the Cubs. I’d love to see that happen, but I feel he is going to have another great year in 2024 and opt out after the year for greener pastures.
Hopefully the Cubs get answers on Busch and Morel this year in the corner infield spots and PCA develops well at AAA (or Canario or Alcantra) and can be counted on to patrol CF at Wrigley in 2025 and hit too.
This wasn’t incredible positioning. Bellinger didn’t get a long term deal so he took a nice pillow like Correa. Making $30MM this year means nothing for Belli’s future salaries. Obviously there wasn’t interest in handing out a 10+ year deal at a ridiculous AAV.
The idea of him getting a 12 year deal was funny from the jump. The Padres & Mets werent playing in the top of free agency this year. That’s not the norm & isn’t going to be.
Who goes to the bank anymore?
Boars did well for CB with this deal, in my opinion. Cody will get the 30m this year, and if he posts another good season, he can opt out with the leverage to probably get the longer deal he was after. If Cody regresses again, he can just opt in and take the 40m left on the deal.
Fever, I think your point about the negotiations dragging out is very valid for some players, as it is an inconvenience- I just don’t see it being a big deal for Cody because he’s just returning to Chicago.
He just got a huge raise and this sets the floor for his next deal at $30 million. You were saying he wasn’t worth the $22 million this site said he would get.
All Bellinger has to do now is repeat his 2023 performance and his payday just went from 12/264 to 11/330.
If you don’t realize that is incredible positioning that shows how little you understand about negotiating contracts.
Bellinger will never get a deal with a $300 on it. & I’d be shocked if he’s signing a deal with a $2.
7/150 next year & he winds up with 8/180. That’s a solid outcome but he’s again assuming risk this year. I’m surprised he didn’t get a $100MM pillow for additional downside protection.
I don’t know anyone who didn’t think Belli couldn’t get a front loaded 3/80. Short term higher AAV deals are much easier to come by.
I’d have to be looking for a bigger pillow for the 2 pitchers. The risk of arm injury is too high. I won’t be surprised if Snell takes something slightly north of this though.
“Flashes….” about a guy with a ROY and MVP to his credit.
Boras just got his client an AAV $8 million higher than the most aggressive projections.
======================
A player’s AAV is not linear. I see nothing wrong with the contract, but he is selling at least prime season for $30M. One year from now, teams will take into consideration that he is one year closer to decline.
Put another way, if he fulfills the entire contract, his next contract will be more like $100M/5.
This is terrible reasoning.
If no one came close to giving him $264M/12, why would anyone offer him $300M/10?
Most large market teams wouldn’t mind having have a 28 year old CF producing 4.4 War player for 20 Mil a year . Dude can still run and can still hit. Nobody was giving him 264 Mil until he’s 40. A team wouldn’t have liked going 10 years but probably would have to sign him. Boras could have had a bidding war but blew it.
Sorry but it’s absolutely ludicrous that you think you’re more qualified in assessing the current market for MLB players then easily the most successful agent in the game. Who exactly would’ve handed out these 200 million dollar contracts a couple months ago but not today?
Lol he had more then a down year. He has had 3 seasons where he wasn’t even above replacement level. One season he batted .165 in sorry but that is something most MLB players never do in their entire career. There certainly aren’t 200 million dollar players batting .165
You’re delusional if you think this is going to hurt his business. And you do realize Boras has no say in if the player accepts their contract offers right? That’s the players choice, it’s also not hard for someone making 20+ million a year to move their family in a matter of a couple days
TMQ, FYI, I (and probably others) can’t tell who your comments are directed towards because this comments section rarely lists comments directly after the comment someone is replying to.
You said he wouldn’t get $22 million and he got $30 million, so your opinion is worth squat.
BIL, who is your comment, “You said he wouldn’t get $22 million and he got $30 million, so your opinion is worth squat.” directed towards?
I’m sure a decade-long contract at $22M per season would have been more appealing to Bellinger that the 3/$80M he received. Comparing total contract and AAV is sort of apples and oranges.
gbs, was answering Downing.
BaseballisLife
Nope you are so wrong. 8 Million dollars is not going to bring back the longer contracts that teams would have signed Belli to in his age 28 season. He signed for 8 Mil now instead of 22 Mil later with the potential of tens of millions lost if he gets hurt or has a bad year in these two years. Bad move for an agent to risk that. What a stupid error for Boras to make.
TMQ –
I just don’t understand why Boras has so many Fanboys on here gushing over someone ruining baseball unless he is paying them to try to influence future clients. “Make sure the perception is I’m doing great for my clients”
bullred: Ruining baseball how? By helping his clients maximize their earnings and keep a bigger piece of the profits they create?
That’s a bit of wacko hyperbole right there.
When you make $30 million per year, you don’t stress over finding housing. You can stay at a fancy hotel for a month and treat the expense like you went to Starbucks every day.
Bull,
Its not going to bring back the longer contracts for less AAV, its going to being long contracts for a higher AAV.
He bet on himself and the $8-10 million more than the predictions he is getting for 2024 is increasing his net income by $60-100 million.
Boras doesn’t make the decisions. You have to be really stupid to think that the employee, Boras, makes decisions for the employer, the player. Bellinger made the decision.
He decided to bet on himself to be able to replicate his 2023 performance and if he does he earns 25% more than even the highest predictions this offseason over the rest of his career from 2024 on.
$30 million in 2024 then 10/300 at a minimum. $330 million vs $264 million.
If you go with the 8/160 to 10/200 predictions in many publications he could be doubling his earnings.
At worst, if he reverts to his 2021-2022 numbers, he still earns $80 million and is a free agent at 31 with 7-8-9 more years left in his career potentially.
Explain why you think Boras getting the players that are his clients the most possible money is “ruining baseball”. His clients believe he’s doing a great job for them or he would not have both the most clients and the most money under contract per client.
I want to see every player get as much money as they can. I don’t pay to go see owners fatten their billionaire wallets. I go to see players on the field.
You have to be really stupid if you don’t think an agent doesn’t inform and guide their client. He basically lays out what he wants the client to do but then says ” but you make the decisions here just I wouldn’t do it.” Making the client feel like an idiot if they don’t listen.
It’s basic economics. Where do the owners get there money from. You and I
@bullred: Of course the owners get their money from us, but they get it because of the players they employ and without whom they would have nothing to sell.
So the players deserve as much of that money in their pockets as they can get. Boras and other agents facilitate that process.
@dbith: What if he does have another year like 24?
Check back here for MLBTR coverage in October or November 2025!
BIL,
For Bellinger to have a shot at 10/$300M next winter, he’d need to have an MVP-caliber season this year with underlying metrics to support that level of performance.
Inform? Yes. Guide? Yes. That is their job.
Make the decision for their employers? Not a chance.
No agent that is any good would be stupid enough to make their client feel like an idiot. They wouldn’t have that client or any other clients if they did that. Boras is undeniably the best MLB player agent, so you can be 100% certain that he doesn’t do that.
That you have clearly deminstrated that you don’t understand the relationship or the process tells me you think the agents make the decisions.
Gbs, if Bellinger has another 133 OPS+, 4.4 WAR season he will equal this year’s salary and at 29 years old will get 10 years. That is not something that is even in question.
He got paid $30 million this year because of that level of performance and he will get that amount AAV long term as long as he can show he can repeat that level of performance.
If he has an 8 WAR, MVP type season Bellinger will be looking at much more than $30 million.
WHAT underlying metrics are you talking about? I asked that question earlier and got no answer then either. There are no metrics that point to regression. All they point to is him being a 25-30 HR player that hits for average and doesn’t strike out much, instead of 40+ HR and 25% SO.
BIL,
Bellinger didn’t hit the ball hard last season. He dinked balls over the infielders and beat out grounders slapped to the left side with his speed. He won’t maintain that speed as he ages, so unless he starts hitting the ball with authority again, teams will not invest huge dollars in him long term.
He does it for sure. You just have to listen to him talk to know he does it. He thinks its what his client needs so why wouldn’t he fight for it. He wouldn’t be doing his job effectively in his opinion if he didn’t.
Wrong and every baseball writer that has commented about this signing has said you are wrong. 133 OPS+ with 25+ HR in 2024 will get Bellinger $30 million AAV on a long term deal.
Bull, Stupid is as stupid says and that was completely stupid.
Time, and his performance, will tell.
Also, no need for you to be so aggressively insulting. None of us can tell the future, so we’re all just sharing our opinions.
@BIL: Seems to be a pattern with bullred. What an appropriate username.
It’s obvious most poser fans are not knowledgeable enough to understand it as you losers appear to be. I try to educate the ignorant but sometimes you got to move on.
bullred,
At least in this discussion, everyone seems to be sharing reasonable perspectives, though my agreement with each them certainly varies depending on the particular stance.
I don’t know why you (or others) feel the need to throw out insults like posers, losers, and ignorant. I doubt the knowledge of any of us is significantly greater or lesser than anyone else’s here.
@bullred: But you’re not educating anyone so much as displaying your own anti-player and anti-agent bias and lack of knowledge.
That you believe you’re capable of educating anyone about anything, and that they need or want you to do that, is totally amazing.
To paraphrase gbs42, that’s my reasonable perspective.
Just as I said, bellinger’s ego made him think he would easily get $200M on a multi-year deal. Instead he would come crawling back to the cubs for lesser money than he thought he deserved. He overestimated his value after one year in the Wrigley band box over two unexceptional years in Chavez Ravine, a major league-sized park.
It doesn’t really matter if Bellinger opts in next year. The Cubs can still spend. Hendricks and Smyly come off so the Cubs will have 27 million to spend and will have almost zero needs. If he comes back the lineup is set and the young P’s will have another year of experience. Horton should slide in for Hendricks and maybe you need a reliever or 2 and a replacement for Gomes. That’s not going to cost a fortune. Maybe they resign Gomes if he keeps it up. Guy keeps himself in great shape.
One again, Wrigley is not a “band box.” Statistical evidence says is only slightly more hitter-friendly than average.
capn, most people don’t trust stats and evidence. They interfere with their biases.
@uncle: Yeah, this Belli deal on face, seems very operable for the Cubs medium range plans. It definitely buys them time to sort out ‘good problems’ that a whole lot of teams would love to have.
@capnfatback That’s true overall, but it’s mostly based on how the wind is blowing during each game. Whenever the wind is blowing significantly towards the outfield, Wrigley is indeed a band box, while the reverse is also true.
avenger,
Why do you think this is all about ego and seem to relish the idea that Bellinger went “crawling back” to the Cubs for a lower-value, short-term deal?
Players typically get one shot at their big payday after being systematically underpaid for 6-7 years. What’s wrong with them getting as much as they can?
Late Saturday night of partying and drinking away the pains of no one signing – and surprise – Passan gets the upper hand again.
Everyone’s a critic…
It was at ESPN a half hour ago, but I like this site so…
It hit the news over six hours ago…
I see that now. It’s Sunday. They were probably sleeping in…..like me.
@positively At 2am on a Sunday morning dude…this is obviously a smaller site and they had a gap in their coverage. It happens. I’ll stress again…this was at 2am…on a Sunday morning.
Thought you were kidding in your first comment but your second comment makes it seem like it’s more like genuine criticism. Really hope that’s not the case…this just isn’t a big enough site to expect wall-to-wall coverage like that.
positive,
Maybe if more people subscribed to the site they could afford overnight coverage on the weekends.
gbs
“Maybe if more people subscribed to the site they could afford overnight coverage on the weekends.”
Maybe
Getting news while I’m asleep/on a flight/doing whatever on a Sat night has 0 value to me, so, I’ll continue to not suscribe
People do sleep occasionally. It didn’t hurt me to not find out the second the ink dried on the contract. We used to not find out trades and signings until reading the transaction box in the morning paper.
Yes and a 2am transaction probably wouldn’t have made press time for that day’s paper.
The thing that gets me about all this is there have not been any significant negotiations. Then, all of a sudden, they work towards a deal that gets done at 2:00 am? Why the rush now? Could have hammered it out this morning instead. Just really weird. But I do like the 3 year $80 million deal with two opt-outs. He’ll probably produce again this year and be in basically the same position next year after he opts out.
But if he doesn’t, the Cubs are on the hook for $30 million next year and he will be highly motivated to be productive. Same with 2026 but only $20 million. This helps Cody get paid a great AAV and guaranteed $80 million in case of poor production or injury. Also gives the Cubs cost certainty on a player that was their MVP last season and doesn’t block the young players in the minors and allows them to develop longer at that level.
Win/Win for both sides in my book.
@CentralFan71: How do you know there haven’t been significant negotiations?
@Blue Baron: I don’t for sure, but Ricketts or Hoyer came out to the press and said there have been a few discussions but not negotiations and they were waiting for Boras to engage. I could be wrong though. I obviously don’t have any first hand knowledge.
What’s this mysterious “morning paper” you speak of?
@Yankee Clipper: He meant morning screen.
That’s what we used to call I-phones in the 20th century.
Except that the first IPhone wasn’t released until 2007, so there was no such thing in the 20th century.
Well, unless the Padres go for it and re-sign Snell, you can officially stick.a fork in their season.
Bellinger checked all the boxes.
Further proof that the Padres New Ownership group sans Peter Seidler is all about profit.
The can use the CBT and Debt Seevice. MARKET size all they want and fans buy it hook line and sinker.
Plain and simple this franchise the Padres franchise has done a complete 180 from last year and won’t spend a dime.
Bleak years to come as a Padres fan.
But hey let’s all root for the CBT, Market Size, Devt Service Rule.
Let’s all root for ‘saving money’…that won’t be re-invested in payroll.
Get ready for the AI generated retorts and rebuttals to this comment or team/MLB paid plants who ‘support’ ownership.
Yes, MLB contracts out to entities who write on behalf of the teams/MLB in support of a low payroll.
Bots and paid agencies control Reddit and suppress dissent.
It’s a thing.
@towinagain: Every business everywhere is about profit, or there’s no reason to be in business. Except for public utilities like Con Edison.
This is not AI-generated. That is all.
This is ChatGPTs response to your comment:
I understand your frustration and disappointment with the Padres’ current direction, particularly in light of the decision not to re-sign Snell and the perceived focus on profit over building a competitive team. It’s tough when a team seems to prioritize financial considerations over investing in top-tier talent.
The concerns about the impact of ownership changes, the use of the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT), and market size on team decisions are all valid points. Many fans share your sentiment about wanting to see more aggressive spending to bolster the team’s chances of success.
It’s understandable to feel disillusioned when a team appears to be taking a more conservative approach to payroll and player acquisitions. Fans want to see their team invest in the best possible players to compete at the highest level.
As for the AI-generated responses and potential influence from team or MLB-affiliated entities, it’s always important to consider where information is coming from and to maintain a critical eye on discussions, especially online. Transparency and honesty in these discussions are crucial for fans who want to engage in meaningful dialogue about the team they love.
While the current outlook may seem bleak, sports fandom often comes with its ups and downs. Here’s hoping that the Padres’ future holds better fortunes and a return to the competitive spirit that fans are yearning for.
Wow! AI goes point for point!
When it comes to Blue Baron, all intelligence is artificial.
I also had it write a poem for you:
In the halls of MLB Trade Rumors, a name does stand,
Towinagain, skeptic of AI’s calculated hand,
With wary eyes on Padres’ owners, so bold,
In the dance of baseball, their story is told.
Through bytes and codes, this user treads,
Distrustful of algorithms and their spreads,
For in the heart of baseball’s game,
They see greed’s shadow, cast without shame.
Padres’ owners, in their towers high,
Their motives questioned, beneath the sky,
Towinagain, a voice of doubt, of wary care,
In the world of rumors, they’re ever aware.
In the forums where speculations fly,
Their words ring true, never shy,
For in this game of trades and gold,
Their skepticism shines, brave and bold.
So here’s to towinagain, in the MLB’s throng,
A skeptic’s heart, steadfast and strong,
In the echo of Padres’ owners’ name,
Their voice stands tall, in the trade game’s claim.
It’s more that the Padres overspent beyond their means the past couple of seasons, so now they’ve been forced to slash payroll to make up for it, while they didn’t even get any extra playoff revenue out of their wild spending experiment.
Basically, the reason they can’t afford to sign someone like Snell now is due to overspending on luxuries like Boagarts during the last two offseasons.
Lan
“It’s more that the Padres overspent beyond their means the past couple of seasons,”
Quit looking through shoe-leather colored glasses.
The last few years the Padres spent like they should, now they are going back to making sure the owners’ pockets are well lined with dollar bills
This is an aggregate site not a break the news site. They gather info and post it up. It’s as simple as probably not having overnight coverage last night. Guess what? Plenty of folks still saw this first here including myself. These stories are non important news, I don’t scour the net starved for it. MLBTR does a fine enough job for me to sit with my coffee and read.
Salzilla – Indeed. If this were my site, the people complaining right now are the people I’d rather spend more time on other sites.
I miss getting my weekly Sporting News from 1967-83. Dailey papers were fine but never the detailed info for all games. And stats. And reporting on all teams. You didn’t know it could be any better until
ESPN showed up and cable was expensive.
I know that Passan reported it in the middle of the night, but I guess MLBTR does not have an overnight staff?
Why should they have an overnight staff? 99% of the time nothing happens between 1 AM and 9 AM. Why pay someone to cover nothing except for the occasional signing like Bellinger. People are just too spoiled with expecting instant news.
I read about this via ESPN early this morning. When I checked MLBTR, there was no post. I had assumed an unreliable source reported it, leading to MLBTR’s omission, but ESPN? That said, things happen. They’re usually excellent at vetting and timing information.
Totally wanted to post something this morning too. After my 15-year-old scooped me in the middle of the night. Hwy MLBTR, my son’s available to report if you’re looking.
They are embarrassed because they predicted 12/264 for Bellinger.
Any wild-card-caliber team should have taken the chance if that deal was on the table.
The thing is a lot of teams had already filled their roster needs so there wasn’t a lot of places left (30 million is still 30 million) Also, once Bellinger pivoted to a prove it deal, it probably made sense to stay with the team where he had his first good bounce back year. Gives him the best chance to have a repeat performance before heading back to market.
If Juan Soto crushes it with the Yankees this season, guaranteed Bellinger doesn’t put himself through this drama again next off season when teams are competing for Soto’s services. He’ll re-up for 1 more year with the Cubs and go FA at the age of 30.
If Bellinger has another season like 2023 he will absolutely opt out. Soto’s likely 14 year, $600 million deal will drive up the prices of all free agents and Boras will take advantage of that to get Bellinger a 10 year $300+ million deal that will seem a bargain compared to Soto.
My thoughts as well. Boras waited way too long. Once it became apparent he wasn’t getting a long term deal he almost had no choice but to return to Chicago. Any other team that would sign him to a short term deal – I’m sure there were a few – he would risk having diminished performance and lower marketability next offseason. He signed last offseason already knowing Chicago was the easiest place to revive his career.
@knuckleball- exactly! Also, the fact that the other signing teams would have to forfeit a draft pick for this same deal made it obvious to me once spring training started that the cubs will be resigning Bellinger on exactly this type of short contract with opt outs.
Well, he said several times how much he enjoyed last season. Maybe he just wanted to play for the Cubs.
Other teams would have to pay the QO penalty. Any team in the CBT penalty would be paying a 2nd, a 5th and $1M in international signing room. For potentially 1 yr before the opt out. Not worth it.
Not worth it? A second round pick has probably less than a 10% chance of being an impact major league player. A fifth round pick is much less than that. Do you think Cody Bellinger is less than a 10% chance of making an impact this year? Draft picks are overrated. They are fun to think about, but most of the time they are useless.
Yes. If have a need like the Cubs did, it is absolutely worth it.
I dont completely disagree but baseball is unlike other sports in that teams have a draft bonus pool so you could get 3 prospects in the 20-40 range any given yea if you want and then go Senior signs the rest of the draft. The Pirates got 3 first round talents the year they drafted Henry
The bonus pools are only assigned based on your draft picks. You only get extra money if you have extra picks to sign. Meaning you have to basically throw away a couple of picks in order to sign top picks that fell due to signability. And if you aren’t able to sign them, then you lose the draft pool money from that slot anyway. That’s why the Astros lost the ability to sign their 5th round pick the year they didn’t sign Brady Aiken…
@hiflew- Yes those picks don’t have a huge chance of high impact success, but some still do just that.
Beyond the actually draft pick and player though, is the value to the team in being awarded the slot money that comes along with the pick.
That extra money can be pushed towards a harder to sign high talent player out of high school to entice them to skip college, and countered by drafting some other low key guys underslot in later rounds.
I do believe the awarded draft slot money is basically giving the GM’s more poker chips to play with at the table, and it’s an underlying aspect that often goes unnoticed by the casual “poker player.”
hiflew, it isn’t Bellinger for one year versus a second round pick. It’s Bellinger at the cost of $30M for one year, plus the lost picks and international money, plus being on the hook for up to $50M more over the next two years if he takes another downturn. That’s a large variety of cost downsides for the “luxury” of an expensive on year deal.
Not my money…why would I care? I am just a baseball fan, not a fantasy GM. I only care about what happens on the field.
50% of players drafted in the second round make it to the major leagues vs 66% drafted in the first round. Of that, around 31% stick vs 47% of first rounders.
I can’t afford to subscribe & support the writers, I’m already supporting save the whales, the seals, the rain forest & the children. Along with supporting save the polar bears, the post office & the planet, furthermore & to wit, I’m saving the date, the last dance & the best for last. My ex wife is three months behind on her alimony payments, I’m down to my last two bottles of Dom Perignon & frankly I’m starting to freak out! But once she sends that check…I’m in baby! Ahahaha!
Obviously Boras isn’t YOUR lawyer. Nice work.
I’m sure any other team would not give him an opt out after year one if they’re paying the price of a QO.
Nope. 30m is insane for Bellinger.
@RobblyDobs: The Cubs obviously don’t agree with you.
This much is clear, indeed.
Also, other teams would lose a comp pick. 30 mil + a comp pick for 1yr
Bellinger wasn’t going to give this deal to any team but the Cubs imo. He’s comfortable there
It’s a huge player friendly contract. No team should have done it. Little to gain much to lose.
You misspelled “team friendly”.
It wasn’t on the table. Boras was trying to get twice as much money and every other team dropped out. He had no choice but to go back to the Cubs.
Good work by Jed Hoyer. Looks like a good deal for both the Cubs and Belli.
Bellinger was predicted to get $264 million, and instead gets $80 million. How exactly is this not a big fat loss for Bellinger and Boras?
SK
“How exactly is this not a big fat loss for Bellinger and Boras?”
Because predictions don’t mean anything
It’s only a loss if there was a better deal available and they didn’t get it
You can spin this anyway you want, but the fact is MLBTR is pretty damn good at predicting FA value. Can never remember this large of a gap between what they thought would happen and what actually happened.
SK
Who is spinning?
A prediction means nothing
All that matters is what deals were available
He set himself up very well to eclipse that package over two deals now. If he plays this year and next in Chicago he makes 2/$60M; if he maintains that production he could easily sign 8/$200M in the 2025 offseason as a 30-year-old free agent
Don’t even bother trying to defend Boras. This was a huge loss for him and you know it! Regardless of your obvious devotion to him. You are spinning!
Well the gap says less about Bellingers market and more about MLBTR making a foolish prediction. I never even read it but why in the world would anyone give a guy a 12 year deal who has had one year in 4 that was not a disappointment (averaging a 600 or so ops over 2020-2022). It’s insane.
br
Insane
Why would anyone here have a “devotion” to Boras?
How does that make a lick of sense?
Please tell me you’re not actually trying to sell us that Boras met expectations with this deal?
A former MVP coming off an exceptional season at age 28, and all he’s worth is 3 years in this day and age?
That’s one possible outcome. Another, much more likely is he never gets a long-term deal because GM’s are afraid he’s not going to age well.
Yes they are good at predicting. Yes, they were way over on their Belly prediction.
Both can be true.
The opt outs in year 1 and year 2 make after making 60M is pretty good when you’re carrying a QO. He basically has an 80M dollar ins policy.
SK
“Please tell me you’re not actually trying to sell us that Boras met expectations with this deal?”
Did I say anything about Boras meeting expectations?
What are you talking about???
I said exactly what I meant
Predictions mean nothing. Expectations mean nothing.
Bellinger and Boras only “lost” if they rejected a better deal (whatever that means to Bellinger).
Off 2 terrible seasons and one where his results were much better than his peripherals.
30m is a lot to pay it happens again the next 2 years. Kudos to the cubs for resisting a 6+ year deal, but its a big gamble all the same
Well, it has a high AAV with opt-outs. Technically, MLBTR’s prediction is not wrong yet. If he opts out after 2/$60M, a 10/$204M deal during his 30-year-old season is possible.
No it isn’t. The Cubs got him for one or two years which is exactly what they wanted. Buy time until prospects are ready. 30 mill is nothing for a big revenue team.
Cubs can afford a 30m player.
If I was a Cubs fan, I’d rather have Montgomery for 20m AAV (5/100 looks like it would get him at this point) and have 10m left in the bank.
But what do i know? All the Cubs fans i know are turning cartwheels.
“Bellinger and Boras only lost if they rejected a better deal.”
Players hire Boras because he rightly has the reputation for getting better deals for his clients than other agents. It’s unreasonable to believe Boras couldn’t, or shouldn’t, have done better for Bellinger. If I were Bellinger, I’d be very disappointed today. Very! F’ing! Disappointed!
SK
Disappointment isn’t the same as losing
Again, it’s only losing if there was a better deal available that they didn’t get,
There would have been if he had negotiated earlier when teams still had budget.
Obviously, teams are reluctant to go long-term with Belli based on his inconsistency. He did very good with $30 mil a year. All he has to do is produce for a couple seasons to score the bag. If he tanks again, then he didn’t deserve the big guaranteed payout anyway….
It amazes me so many line up to defend Boras year after year. The guy is a glorified used car salesman with the morals of a jackal. He wouldn’t lift a finger to defend any of us, so why do so many make it a point to rush to defend such an obvious POS?
stymee
“There would have been if he had negotiated earlier when teams still had budget.”
A few assumptions there which I wouldn’t agree with
Primarily, that they weren’t in contact with teams all off season
Defend is a bit strong of a word. Point being Boras is a top sports agent, and he got Belli a good deal considering all the factors at play….
They’ve had plenty of misses on predictions and there’s nothing wrong with that. They were off by hundreds of millions for Ohtani just this year, a much bigger gap than this one. They significantly over-guessed many predictions in (I believe) 2020-2021.
They get lots right, but they get lots wrong, which is to be expected. While many were spot on, I thought their predictions on Bellinger and Chapman were both crazy. I had then getting $150M and $75M respectively. Even with over $100M less on my prediction, I was still way off on Belli. I always thought the Chapman prediction was especially nuts, however. Curious to see what he ends up signing.
Their prediction for Bellinger was always a huge outlier.
“Disappointment isn’t the same as losing
Again, it’s only losing if there was a better deal available that they didn’t get. ”
We might as well start calling you “Rumpelstiltskin” your spinning so hard!
This!!! You need to learn from your mistake Boras!
@solaris602: “He wouldn’t lift a finger to defend any of us.”
By the same token, what harm has he ever done to you to make you so angry and hostile about him?
@bullred: But I would still rather be Bellinger or Boras than you.
Lol! Thanks!
“Bellinger was predicted”…”Predictions” are like a-holes, everybody’s got one and most of the time they stink, are way off base and are mostly full of shick.
Well stated.
Absolutely!!!! Very interested to see what Boris gets for Montgomery and Snell.
Monty may take a similar deal and go back to Texas.Maybe with a 4 year deal. Snell is stuck IMO.
I hope SF or Seattle offer him the same deal as Belly., but for 4-5 years. Either that or the Yankees fold and give Snell a 1 year opt out.
@CleaverGreene: How do you know Montgomery has an offer on the table from Texas?
Its a loss trust me. Boras looks like a pompous ass with this signing. What upsets me here this is a deal Yankees should have been all over this as Im confident Bellinger would have preferred NY. They could have dealt Torres to soften the blow on tax hit and that lineup would have been scary good with an excellent CF to leave Judge in RF. Soto in LF or DH and Verdugo flipped in another trade.
@Anthony maresca: Why do you assume he would have preferred New York and the Yankees?
The Cubs are a better organization and probably closer to winning right now.
Who the hell cares what a prediction says. I posted months ago on here that no one would be dumb enough to give Cody anywhere near 200 million.
Because Bellinger is now getting 26.66 million a year instead of 22 million a year and will reenter FA when he’s in his early 30’s when most players first get to FA so he’ll almost certainly land another fat contract.
If bellinger is good he opts out after year 2 and cubs have paid 2/60. Thats not a bargain.
If hes crap they get to pay another 20m for 2026. Holy ouch, Batman.
Nice deal by Boras.
It was 12/264. Nobody was giving him 12 years so the prediction was a joke to begin with.
If he rakes and considering future baseball inflation.
This is 3/80
If he signs two more similar deals in the future, that’s 9/240. Significantly better than predicted.
He wants to play in Chicago. He is being on himself. I think he will succeed and either be extended by the cubs in 2 years or sign a deal that will actually make the prediction somewhat on target over the long run.
But there were zero teams that were willing to go anywhere close to 12 years.
Why would you think he’s going to be able to sign 2 more deals like this? Even with inflation, 34 year old Cody Bellinger isn’t getting 3/80.
You don’t know that.
Opt out after 2/60, then 5/125, then 2/30 to wind down his career once he has to move off of CF. That would be 9/215. And that would be fair if he can stay at a 120 OPS+ CF for the next 3-4 years. Especially with plus defense and the ability to spell a team’s bad defensive 1B in the late innings.
I still think, however, that Boras overplayed his hand and misread the impact of the Mets, Padres, and Angels retrenching the same year on the overall market. I think that if he had started out trying to get Bellinger 4/110 with an opt-out after 2/60 that Toronto would have jumped on it even with the QO.
MLBT was the only place saying 250+ for Belli – Most places seemed to predict 150-160ish. Belli stil got 2/60 + $20 mil insurance and can opt out after either year. It’s not terrible for a 28 yr old.
Anyone predicting that Bellinger was going to get a 12-year deal when two of his three most recent years were absolutely abysmal was deluding themselves—and you, apparently.
I thought he would have gotten a Kris Bryant deal but that was probably going to be much earlier in the off-season. He has 80 million guaranteed and puts together another 4-5 WAR season he’s probably getting paid next off-season. I wish the cubs could have gotten him for two guaranteed but this definitely helps the cause.
$22 million vs $30 million plus the chance to get 10/300 or more in free agency next offseason.
Because he is making 30 million this season and if he produces like he did last year he will sign a much larger deal.
Yes-after too many (not all by any stretch)of its fans yelling to essentially “just spend-you’re a big market team”.
Hoyer/GM perfectly bought a year to assess prospects and let a fully motivated Bellinger walk if his play warrants better than 2/50 next offseason.
@cws…. you nailed it. Spot on.
2/60 is amazing for bellingers last 3 years. He’s good but hes not 30m AAV good unless you ignore the peripherals from last year and the previous 2 years entirely.
Looks an overpay.
All signings are different, some players let the agent do everything and stay out of it, and others let their opinions known. I think Bellinger told Boras he wanted this kind of deal, he makes good money, plays in a great place for him, and still will be young enough for another pay day down the road.
It is like winning the lottery for bellinger and makes hoyer look completely desperate to stay whatever the cubs are. Massive overpay for AGAIN a aging guy coming off a rebound year, nobody wanted,who I bet 30 million of hoyers money will regress hugely and painfully 2024. Bad signing.
aging?
huh
Cubs lose the draft pick and have to pay bellinger $7 million for the opt out in 2023 just to resign him. If hes oft inured belinger likely wont take the opt outs. If bellinger does i think hes gonna be back in to same boat – looking for a long term deal, no suitors.
Free agency starting to look like a crap shoot – but preventable. Did the mets team doctors actually miss their free agent starter’s injury?
Hopefully the cubs wont do the same with Bellinger.
Great for Bellinger. Bad for Cubs. Bad prediction.
FAR from the long term big money that was predicted.
Boras must be dining on crow.
While I don’t think Boras has done Bellinger & friends any favors this offseason, I do wonder how much he would have gotten in a market like last year. Without the same worries over TV rights and teams throwing $200M+ deals to several guys, I can see a world where a resurgent Bellinger gets a long-term deal for $150M+. Of course, we’ll never know for sure, but I think these free agents may have met smaller-than-expected interest with any agent in the context of this offseason
Great contract for Boras. Last year he would have got close to 200 million. Mets had awful gm. Padres spending like crazy. Angels might have been in.
I think you’d need to know what other offers were out there and turned down to evaluate whether or not this was a great contract.
Despite his reputation, this has happened to Boras clients many times throughout the years. He often will get his clients top dollar, and always does when the market is right or they are the top guy. But his tactics backfire when the market isn’t as strong as he thinks or the player has more flaws than he wants to admit. Martinez is likely to suffer a similar fate, possibly Chapman too. I do think Snell will get his money once some top pitcher goes down in spring training with a big injury as always seems to happen. Montgomery might benefit from this too but otherwise will likely land on the has to settle list.
I have always felt Chapman would get a deal of around $75M over 5 years, and JD $12M for one year.
As for Snell, $125M 5 Years
Montgomery is the one Borris Client that I felt much safer offering a longer-term contract. I would feel safe at $180M for 8 years.
We don’t care about your feelings
Snell and montgomery should get long term deals as free agents since they havent been oft injured and are consitant in starts and lower era. I think the owners just dont want to continue or contribute to average of AAV of $35 milion + for top tiered players.
More likely the RSN fiasco.
i love when people say this. boras is certainly not reading this, but laughing at you all the same as he walks that check down to the bank and tells them to get ready for another one next year
30 million a year for this guy?? lol go cubs go… sign Alfonso Soriano 2.0
I hope so. This is, essentially, a one year deal. Soriano hit 33 HR in the first year of his deal.
And “thebirds” will eat crow.
no. weirdo
but, but…that’s cannibalism!!
no, Pete Crow
I hope you’re right and this becomes a one year deal. Because that would mean Belli has a huge year – and could move on.
Also, I’m encouraged since I didn’t see anything indicating there was a NTC included.
Yes, the Cubs needed him this year because it makes them more competitive and buys them a year of evaluation and development for the system.
But Belli at age 31 isn’t likely going to be the top player on the market in a few years. It’s likely Boras screwed up.
A year like 2023 and Bellinger is gone after 2024 and gets a deal for far more than the $20-22 million AAV.
I think you better look back at just how good Alfonso was for the cubs especially with his age going through that contract but hey the uneducated are the uneducated
8.2 bWar for $97,000,000 (in 10-15 years ago money) is maybe average.
I think you ought to. That was a terrible deal for the team.
cmj
Per FanGraphs, Soriano provided $116 million in value on his $136 million contract.
He didn’t quite produce what he was paid, but far from a disaster.
I think you better look back at just how good Alfonso
==================================
1.5 bWAR per year with the Cubs. Maybe you should look back instead.
Bellinger wishes he was Soriano and so do the cubs.
King B – Soriano was a horrible LF who was a 110 wRC+ bat. Belli is a +CF and probably just as good or better with the stick.
Soriano produced nearly 3 fWAR a year for great Cubs. He was a fine player
The Cubs, who missed the playoffs last year by 1 game are under the tax in a weak division with a top farm system. A 1-2 yr 30 mil flyer on a +CF is a dream scenerio for them.
The “flier” year was last season, when Hoyer was trashed by many for signing him for 17.5 mill. After the year he had and the camaraderie those guys developed (see Swanson, Hoerner, Steele, PCA quotes about him), this is no flier deal.
Ok – it’s a 1 yr deal – 2 yr deal tops. Call it what you want. The Cubs don’t want Belli long term at 25+
3 years max is not a long term deal. That’s why they waited out Boras. It’s worth the risk for a large market team.
When I called it the most of out of pocket free agent prediction MLBTR has ever posted, Tim Dierkes himself replied to my comment to push back.
It’s nice to know I’m not crazy. 12/$250 or whatever it was LOL. I mean it made no sense. Still don’t understand how they came up with that.
I think it was a combo of lasts year’s cartoonishly high contracts and a feeling Ohtani and Yamamoto would drive prices up even further.
Instead teams that missed out on them just saved their cash and some big spenders more or less sat this off-season out.
I hope this becomes the new norm. I hate contracts that pay high up to a player’s 40s
GtM
“I hate contracts that pay high up to a player’s 40s”
Tell me you have been brainwashed by capitalism without telling me…
Are you wearing a Che Guevara tee shirt and a little berret, feeling all edgy when you type this nonsense, comrade?
Brainwashed? What?
I want to see players get paid. I just want to see contracts that pay higher AAV with fewer years. I say that as a fan, because Teams riddled with bad contracts spend less.
Miggy is a good example. He gave the Tigers an excuse not to spend big and made them hard to watch. But I think he deserved huge money in his prime.
And in about 8 years we will have a lot of that. I’m saying this as a consumer
GtM
Long contracts aren’t necessarily bad contracts
Teams prefer longer contracts to spread out the payments.
Shorter term, higher AAV contracts, limit teams from surrounding stars with other talent.
Lower AAV deals allow teams to sign complementary players
filihok,
Yeah I know you’re right. My way would have to be paired with a much higher salary cap.
Id like baseball to go to max 3 year deals and then every off season would be absolutely maniacal mayhem and fun as hell to watch unfold.
@filihok
Tell me you never watched the end of Pujols’, or Cabrera’s big contracts without telling me. Tell me you never heard the term “albatross contract.”
stymee
Tell me you don’t understand anything about finance without telling me…
These long-term contracts underpay players at the beginning and overpay them at the end.
Teams spread out the payments so they can field more competitive teams at the beginning of star players’ contracts.
And aren’t you “edgy” by calling him out.
I did watch Pujols’last year, and it was one hell of a ride.
filihok
“I hate contracts that pay high up to a player’s 40s”
Tell me you have been brainwashed by capitalism without telling me…
============================
You need more context on both sides. A contract signed at age 27 for 13 years could work out because you capture maybe 5-6 prime years, 3 decline years and 3 bad years.
An 8 year contract at age 32 could be a disaster because you only get one prime year to offset the decline/bad years.
And I continue to be amazed at posters referring to Das Capital to explain a simple contract. This has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with simple math.
JB
“This has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with simple math.”
It has to do with both, of course.
A deal of any length can be structured to work out. 20 years for a 45 year old can work out.
SHNK: What salary cap?
There is and will not be a salary cap in MLB, thankfully.
It’s painful to watch how salary caps hurt players and teams in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. Teams can’t choose to spend more to keep a strong group together, and players must fight to get their fair share of profits like a giant game of musical chairs.
All this while owners keep raising ticket and concession prices and profits increase.
In fairness, I’m a bit surprised that’s all he got. That being said, you were 100% to call out any sort of 10+ year prediction for Bellinger. Dude has an MVP to his name and an excellent 2023, but only a select few get those long deals in their late 20’s/early 30’s.
Two recent examples that come to mind would be Arenado and Judge…Bellinger just isn’t on that tier with them.
I’ll take Bellinger over Arenado any day of the week. Young left handed power bat, also a GG winner, more versatile and can actually run. Easy choice
FG projections
Bellinger: 2.2
Arrenado: 3.7
ZiPs 3 year
Bellinger: 7.4
Arrenado: 7.3
But would you play bellinger at 3rd base?
Your analogy no longer works if your team is in dire need of a 3b.
Lol
People put way too much stock in what the writers on this site think. They seem to have a really bad understanding of economics in general and have been wrong, often.
1984
FanGraphs’ writer, Ben Clemens, had 6/$150
FanGraphs’ readers had a bit less than that
Avg: 5.7/$136
Med: 6/$144
1984-This is like everything else in the world. People that zone in on one number from one source, might not get the best number. I laughed at the idea of someone with Belli’s history getting 12 years.
But that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good player that was going to get paid good money. The NYY should’ve been in on this.
Same. Biggest laugh of a contract I’ve seen. He’s not MVP bellinger. He’s a reinvented version of himself. There’s not much upside to get more than you did in 2024 with his current approach. You’re extremely happy to get that, but you aren’t going to give a guy like that 12 years at a premium AAV.
He’s contact reliant & BABIP fluctuations could have him produce a lower batting average moving forward. I think he probably hits .280 this year with similar HR/SBS. Nice player—- but never saw him getting anything over 7 years this off-season. Speed and defense don’t improve into your mid 30’s.
I thought he’d do a little better than this with opportunities to opt out though. This is a nice deal for CHC.
They must be old timers. Just looked at average, hrs or ops.
Mlbtr has been pretty on the money with their predictions this offseason. They missed one. So what? If you can do better, start your own publication.
Just so you know, Bellinger got 36% more AAV than they predicted and can be a free agent after 2024. So you ARE crazy.
Boras comes up a wee 120 million dollars short of what he wanted to get for Bellinger.
Time will tell. Correa ended up with $235M over 7 years between his two Twins contracts.
And they will regret it before that contract is over.
I would bet they already do.
As many of us knew they would. When the Mets had originally signed him, I shook my head as a Mets fan because he’s so vastly overrated.
Correa will be fine. He earned his money last year in the playoffs alone, and he’ll have a good bounce back year this year.
Live, breaking news from 6 hrs ago. Thanks
Who cares? Did you need to know about a Cody bellinger Signing in the middle of the night?
Sounds like he knew it in the middle of the night.
Agree This is news ?
Keith, who cares? Apparently you care enough to grace us with your response. Lol
Dang MLB.com before MLBTR, thats a first for me…
To be fair with these overnight signings especially on a weekend it could be tough so no blame on them…
To be fair also, it’s a media site, it’s their job. If I come to a site in an industry to get my information, and they don’t post late breaking news until 6 hours later and I already know the details, what do I need this site for???
GtV
“what do I need this site for???”
You, like all of us, don’t need it for anything.
I would say this, I come to this site to get Trade Rumors and such without all the political vomit permeating all the ‘sports’ sites. I don’t care if they are a little late.
So what if someone I know pings me about it before I read it, as long as I know from some source where I don’t have to here the political viewpoints and rampant click-bait spewing from journalists.
Well done. Lol you’re right fili, smart ass lolol. But you get the point. I usually come here for the details, but was surprised to not see anything yet… Just weird, cause it’s the biggest name that was still available and they were literally sleeping on the job lol
It’s been 6 hours and it’s the biggest name still out there lol… If you come here to avoid the “political vomit” you’re on the wrong comment board buddy
filihok,
Do you mean we don’t need it as in, according to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs baseball news coverage is quite trivial, or do you mean you don’t need these guys because they offer nothing you value?
gbs42…it’s too early on a non work day for you to bring Maslow into this. But thank you for looking out lol
Trump wudda signed him for more. Lol, jk, jk. I couldn’t resist. Seriously though, I agree.
This site compiles articles and insight from agents, players, management and reporters. This site is, in itself, not a reporting website. These guys are not news breaking reporters. Their job isn’t to be first. It is a place to discuss the reports and news after it’s broken.
Given this was over night and there was no particular warning that this was coming, they posted it in the morning.
Did you imagine this site had reporters hiding in Boras’ bushes listening through the window?
And really, who cares if you didn’t find out at 3 am?
gbs
Maslow
Also, there are other places to get baseball info. Everyone complaining that MLBTR was late, must have already gotten the info from somewhere
@randon For what it’s worth, I can assure you that I certainly don’t care that they didn’t find out at 3am.
Then why are you here commenting?
Well said Canuck
I believe this Website is on Mountain Time, which is two hours behind Eastern Time Zone & California Websites would be 3 hours behind.
So if they post it at 3am Eastern, its only 1am Mountain time.
Or, if it was 3am Mountain, it was 5am Eastern Time.
I live in the Eastern Zone & went to bed at 1am & woke up at 8am. So, whatever happened between those hours, I really don’t care. It was posted when I woke up at 8am.
Thank You MLBTR
Lisa knew two days ago.
This site has never claimed to be what you are claiming it claims to be. So unless you can provide concrete,before the eyes evidence that this site claims to be first person reporting. SHUT UP.
Pretty simple to stop viewing it then. Move along
Its free, and most of us haven’t subscribed. You get what you pay for.
If so why are you still on it, nobody needs your opinion because clearly alot of people love it.
Would it help your dreams or something if you knew that Cody Bellinger signed while you were sleeping…
If speed matters go to x and follow a dozen people and you are good. That’s what this site and many others do. They report the reporting.
I wanna work for you. I can be mediocre at my job and you accept it
Same with MLB Network getting somebody on Staff in Studio/Insider to on the air. Jesse Rogers among Cubs Writers should have been the first to break it on ESPN.
MLBTR actually sleeps at night like most of us lol
Ok. First signing to ever happen in the middle of the night?????
Theirs been Trades in the middle of night.
If you post a article and no one is awake to read it does it make a noise?
I think that depends on whether or not the ads auto play.
No one’s dream GM–You make no sense…
dang! Lousy job there Boras! AAV is low and not even 9 figures?? my 90 year old grandma coulda negotiated a better deal than that
The AAV is low? It’s $30 million for the first year. If he’s any good this year, he’ll be back on the market next year. If he’s terrible and opts in, that AAV of $26.667 million is going to look pretty high.
A+ job Boras
AAV is much more than anyone expected him to get. Most sites were between $20 and $22 million. This deal gets Bellinger $30 million for 2024 and then he can be a free agent again. Another season like 2023 and his price is going to be 10/300 instead of 10/200.
I would have preferred holding Bellinger to an opt out after just the second year but finally a deal that works for both.
Interesting enough that this will push the Cubs just over the luxury tax threshold, I’m going to assume a follow up move happens.
drasco, I think you’ll see a trade in the next week or so involving Brennen Davis and Matt Mervis, maybe more, for pitching help. Hello Oakland?
Drascoo- It is basically a one year deal. Bellinger has opt outs after the first two years. Now he’s motivated to have a good year so he can go back to FA. With Hendricks and Smyly coming off next year that basically pays for Bellinger next year if he opts in..
It lets PCA and Busch progress at their own rate. I just hope the plan is isn’t to play Wisdom and Bellinger as the 1B platoon. It’s starting to scare me. It’s why I saw absolutely no purpose in signing Dominic Smith. They now have Bellinger, Busch and Mervis ahead of him. Why’d he come here? But good signing, It doesn’t really block anyone for long. And they got him at their price, Great negotiating.
Dom Smith came here before Bellinger and since there are no sure bets, the Cubs were doing their best to hedge theirs.
I love bringing Bellinger back, it’s the Swiss Army knife move that really can put so many options on the table, Bellinger at first with Morel at third, Bellinger at center while PCA starts in AAA, creating a four man rotation in the outfield between Bellinger, Seiya, Happy and Crow-Armstrong.
Now the question is, what happens to the odd men out? Canario Tauchman Wisdom and to a lesser extent Madrigal?
Uncle—-who is the 40 man move for this one? I can hear you loud and clear with the Wisdom hope……
There are plenty guys ahead of him on both the first and third base depth charts, right?
If Morel can play a competent 3rd base, madrigal is the first to go, not the last.
This will be his 3rd walk year so he wasn’t motivated the previous 2?
Cubs have plenty of pitching but they may decide to raise their ceiling and engage in talks with the Marlins for JL.
One year of Bellinger doesn’t make anyone expendable so to speak but some of the guys mentioned could be moved.
They seem determined to keep Wisdom around but the 2 obvious choices would be Brennen Davis and Keegan Thompson. They could DFA Davis and have 10 days to deal him. He actually looked healthy and good so far. Nobody would claim Thompson with his struggles lately I think.
I doubt they DFA Davis. They need to see what he can do in a healthy year. (If he can stay healthy anyway..) But Wisdom has got to go. Other than an unpredictable hot streak (that never lasts long), he is a defensive liability wherever he plays.
Forget the 40 man roster, who gets moved off the active roster? Who cannot be optioned between P-Wiz, Madrigal, Mastrobuoni and Tauchman?
I imagine a move has to be today/tomorrow so Bellinger can report to camp.
Trading Wisdom makes the most sense for a flyer prospect, it clears nearly 3 million which would put the Cubs comfortably enough under the luxury tax that they could make mid-season additions.
I agree but Hoyer doesn’t seem to. They love Wisdom. On the Cubs he’s in the way to me. Not only did they resign him this off season when they could of non tendered him, They actually gave him a raise. SMH
Arbitration players have to get a raise or they get non-tendered.
Wisdom hit extremely well in certain match ups on the second half but I’d still like to see him traded. He has some value, extreme power bench bat who can play multiple positions (although none well).
Wisdom makes me irate because he is so athletic and talented but he just seems lazy, like a less talented version of Javy. Wisdom was fantastic at third his first year with the Cubs and he was insanely fast, ranking near the top of the majors in spring speed. Then he basically decided DHing was more fun and there was no need to run if you hit it over the wall.
Wisdom is redundant because we have a more talented version of him in Christopher Morel. Morel can play all over, just like Wisdom, light tower power, poor defense, poor plate discipline with the major difference being Morel has a high likelihood of improving where Wisdom has a high likelihood of this being who he is. Just like at the beginning of the season, the question is why have both on the roster?
I felt like the Cubs more willing to deal Morel in the offseason so keeping Wisdom made some sense as an insurance policy but now with Bellinger and Busch, and the looks that Morel is staying, he doesn’t make a lot of sense. Kind of like Mastobouni and Madrigal, they are very similar but the justification is Madrigal is a dangerous weapon in close games due to his ability to put the ball in play and Miles has impact speed and talent to swipe bags late in the game.
The biggest differences between Madrigal and Mastrobuoni are huge. Mastro is LH, Durable and can play allover the infield and you can even toss him in the OF in an emergency. Although I wouldn’t want to see a lot of that. Madrigal’s time has passed but the Cubs will keep him until he’s out of options. Anyway the bench should be interesting to see this year. The first mistake they made was extending Happ because he’s in the way but I guess Hoyer and Ricketts like his coffee business.
Wisdom regressed last year at 3rd base but had been a competent defender in his career. Nothing special, but not horrible.
You’d probably have to pay his contract to unload him.
You have to get his permission first. he has a full NTC same as Suzuki.
lol just because you do not like players does not mean they are not valuable, time has passed and/or have to eat their contract.
Wisdom has plenty of appeal with his salary.
Thompson would be claimed in a heartbeat by a team, hoping they could get him back to his 2023 version of an absolutely dominate bullpen arm.
Davis would be claimed as well.
Happ is worth every penny of his contract, where I would agree it was a mistake for the Cubs to give it to him because Happ is a finishing piece to a line up but not a guy you build around and the Cubs focus should have been getting guys to build around vs complimentary pieces.
Madrigal is a plus defender at both third and second, has elite contact rate and has a lot of value as a bench piece.
The only “bad” contract on the Cubs really is Smyly (aside from the guys we are paying to not be here) and it’s really not awful. As a free agent, Smyly likely would have secured around 7 million
Wisdom is a poor defender and whiff machine
Madrigal is never here so his value is minimal
Happ is blocking Canario from getting AB’s and can’t hit LH pitching
Canario-Bellinger -Suzuki could each easily hit 25 HR’s each and knock in a lot of runs.
Cubs have elite defenders at 2B limiting Madrigals usefulness
Cubs would really like to have the 11 million back they gave Smyly- Thank God next year his option is Mutual
I agree that the money that’s being wasted hurts
Has nothing to do with my ” Feelings” about anyone. Just common sense.
I would also say it’s more about your ” Love Affair” With Madrigal than my disliking him. You don’t want to see his limitations at all. Vasquez-Shaw- Triantos are all better than Madrigal. He’s 501 in a 500 piece puzzle. He doesn’t fit here anymore.
Happ definitely regressed last year against lefties last season after beating them up in 2022. It’s something to watch out for with Bellinger as well, his best numbers was against lefties. However, if Happ continues to struggle, seems like a good way to get Canarios bat in there doesn’t it? Assuming he and/or PCA make the team.
.247 .317 .630. 947 is why Wisdom was tendered a contract. As well as his numbers ahead in the count. I’m sure the Cubs hope/hoped he could continue his second half approach.
Sure, the Cubs have an elite defender (not defenders) at second but… oh yeah he is also the only back up shortstop we have on the roster. We have a project at third base so his usefulness isn’t limited. Again, you just don’t like him.
There is no proof Canario can hit 25 home runs or at all at the major league level so complaining about Happ blocking him on a team with playoff aspirations is just showing your bias. You’ve complained since day one about Happs extension and I agree that I wouldn’t have extended him but your complaining about a guy who is a quality major league player and one of the best players we have on the team.
When Vazquez, Shaw and/or Triantos actually make it to the major leagues, then we can talk.
drascoo, I didn’t know that Mastrobuouni had “elite” speed!!! Was he on some special training, over the last few months?
I’d like to know where that was, because maybe it could do something for me – and I could catch on, like Billy Hamilton.
Well the Mlb Tr overnight desk was on vacation or sleeping one off …however I will forgiving here
Excellent job Jed!!! People… we have a good front office in Jed and Carter!!!! They are making great moves!
Love this guy, so I’m happy he finally signed. Seems like a reasonable deal, since you never know what you’re gonna get from him.
A lot of nerve for folks who *don’t even pay for this site* to complain about not having a story up on a Saturday night. Who cares if MLBTR is first or not? If that’s all you want, just follow Passan and Co on Twitter.
Yea, Join Twitter, don’t be a Twit here!!!! 🙂
Superb post ted….
What a bunch of toddlers complaining that baseball news is “late”.
Back in the day, before internet and even ESPN, this might not have even made the Sunday paper (earlier cutoffs) so you might not have known until Monday edition of a printed newspaper!
Just some context for the “immediate gratification” crowd.
You must be Old, like me.
Aging gracefully!
Me Too, Retired last summer for good. Enjoying myself now with my hobbies.
Not late……..last (or near the end of the pile). I’m a little upset that my son texted me a little after 2:00 am and I automatically came to this site and kept refreshing until I went back to sleep.
Woke back up about 6—-jumped back on and figured my son had some bad info.
Then, I googled Belli and there were numerous reports going back five hours.
For the first time I made the mistake of using MLBTR as my number one for baseball news and rumors.
Still my number one—but need to admit they were a little slow to the party. All is forgiven and still have faith and trust in the staff.
Not bad for Bellinger actually. He can go back into free agency next year without the Qualifying Offer penalties. Shouldn’t be hard to pass up 2 years at $50 million total at that point, as long as he has another good year. Maybe 1B for the Yankees next season?
If he has a good season by all means he ll be opting out. Only way he stays is if he were to fall completely off again. Same type of contract Baez signed, unfortunately opting out did not become an issue for him. I think this is a great contract for both sides though.
I don’t know. If Soto isn’t extended by the Yankees, bellinger might not want to go through this anxiety for the third straight off season when he’s guaranteed 30 mil next year.
Brilliant minds think alike as I was thinking the exact same thing. If Bellinger has a similar year as 2023 I can see Yankees offering 6/150 to replace Rizzo. Its a perfect 1b replacement albeit 6 yrs younger.
This has Bellinger to Yankees written all over it for 2025. If he has another good season this is perfect replacement for Soto whom I don’t believe Steinbrenner meets his asking price. Bellinger either replaces Rizzo at 1B if they decline his 2025 option or he moves to LF for 1 season since Verdugo is a free agent then moves to 1B in 2026 when Jones is ready to take over CF/LF duties as both Dominquez or Jones can play either. Its win-win cause they avoid the outrageous $600 million tag for Soto and dip below at least the 3rd luxury tax hit in 2025 which is huge! They are predicted to be under luxury tax level in 2026 to reset if everything goes as planned.
Bellinger’s fiancé used to date Giancarlo. If it was me I might prefer to sign with a team where someone hasn’t previously banged my woman. But maybe that’s just me.
Absolutely would be my choice to replace Rizzo if he continues what he got back to last year.
Well, I’m happy he’s back but I feel like this is just going to end up as a one year deal.
Only if he repeats last year or better. If he is short of last year’s numbers by any appreciable amount, he won’t give up $51 million to risk it after year one.
I was close…I said 3 and 75 a couple of days ago, with no opt-outs. So this deal isn’t a team-killer. Good job Jed and Carter!
Played perfectly by Jed. He keeps the seat warm until Pete Crow Armstrong comes up in September and if he has another good season, opts into free agency next year. If he has a down year the cubs aren’t locked long term.
If PCA isn’t ready next year and Belli has an MVP-like season, opts out, and goes to an NL competitor, it doesn’t look so great next year. Cubs did fine but this could backfire.
What if PCA has a spectacular spring? What if Bellinger goes back to his doldrums? Lots of ways this could go wrong. Lots of ways it could go right.
I remember when Albert almora was gonna patrol wrigley for a decade.
That foul ball derailed his career IMO.
Almora had a 60 field rating PCA is a 70/80…so higher floor. Even if he sucks at hitting, he should still be able to stick in CF for a few years on defense alone.
Almora also had a 60 hit rating which should be very concerning for cubbies fans. Fans fall in love with prospects and many of them, even top 10 guys, never reach their potential that you dream on.
That is what i see here too. PCA is not even as good as Almora was plus he is a little nutty.
Then you need contacts.
Uncharacteristically slow newsbreak from MLBTR, but this is interesting for the Cubs. They didn’t HAVE to re-sign him.
Good-bye Matt Mervis, we hardly knew ya!
“It’s a fine line between Saturday night and Sunday morning “ AA Arn Anderson
Jimmy Buffett!
RIP to my #2 solo artist. Saw him live @20 times….
Jimmy rocks! Good dude, good tunes.
Actually met him during college in the British Virgin Islands. He was just chillin in this little bar on Tortolla, playing guitar on stage by himself @noon. My friend and I spent the next @6hrs hanging with him. Top 5 moment in my lfe.
putting another man on a pedestal
???
Too many peripheral stats showing too many warning signs for the 6year $180 mill deal that was expected right after the season. Cubs only in the hook for three years max if he sucks, and if he blows it out, he takes the opt out but the Cubs get a year or two. All good.
Now they need a number 4 pitcher and their usual bullpen farm, and they look pretty solid for,the division.
They do need one more SP. Last week I looked at the projected CHC OD starting lineup and thought, “Wow, they REALLY need Bellinger in that lineup.” This should mean we won’t see Tauchman as a starter on Opening Day, and that makes it all worthwhile.
Tauchman did more than they hoped for, last year.
What’d he do, steal your girlfriend?
“Predicting a 12 year $264 million” ..This is a completely ridiculous salary fabrication/projection. “Trade Rumors” must get their “projectuons” directly from Scott Boras. The free market just determined Cody to be worth less than a 1/3 of that. I have to think that anybody pushing this kind of cash for completely inconsistent, somewhat injury-prone players is trying to lead MLB towards insolvency.
Yes they were almost double every other site on his contract prediction. It never made any sense.
They’re usually pretty realistic and accurate most of the time. Never understood how they got 12 years for $264 mil. That has to be one of their worst predictions since they started to do their top free agents lists with predictions.
The Athletic predicted over $200 million. It wasn’t just this site.
Where can we see your predictions at? You called them out on the article they made it right?
You got that all wrong. The free market just determined that Bellinger is worth 36% more than MLBTR predicted. If he has a 2024 season equal to 2024 this just bumped the value of his next deal to over $300 million.
Life – No offense, but you have no concept of higher AAV for short term deals vs lower AAV for longterm deals.
Total guaranteed value of a contract indicates what a player is worth at that point in time, not AAV.
If Belli’s peripherals are a true indication, he will have regression this year. And if he has another 1-2 injury plagued seasons, he’s screwed.
No offense but you have no idea what I understand and don’t have a clue about how the market works. Bellinger just won big time. Instead of maxing out at $20-22 million AAV, he just reset his market value to $30 million and will be back on the market in November. If he has a similar year his next deal will be $300 million. If he has an injury plagued year or two he will make $80 million guaranteed and go back on the market at 31. No matter what, he wins.
I also noticed you didn’t even try to mention what peripherals because that is a bunch of hooey.
He lowered his SO rate, increased his walk rate, and was on his career best for PwrSpd. He sacrificed power for batting average and contact and it paid off. He still hit a highly respectable 26 HR. He drove in baserunners at a rate 5% over MLB average and even his outs were productive as he moved over 50.9% of baserunners when NOT getting a hit. His BABIP was only 11 points higher than his average before the injury. That means at most a 6 point drop in BA.
There is literally nothing you can point to that indicates regression is coming.
Exit velocity/hard hit rate. Your understanding of economics is apparently worse than your understanding of baseball. I didn’t even know that was possible.
Time for the rest of the Boras Four to come down to earth.
Probably not Snell. I predict he’ll be the last to sign if at all this year. Chapman’s price will actually have to drop lower than Bellinger’s. After the mostly bad platform year he had in 2023, I think he needs a BIG bounce back in ‘24 for anyone to even consider signing him longer than 3 years.
30 million is still to much. Bellinger had a great year last year but flopped the two previous years.
Since Ben Nicholson-Smith left this site i feel like im reading a newspaper.
they do great analysis for FO subscribers – i get a handful of emails every week with great rundowns from the site’s writers, including a mailbag last week with Tim Dierkes where he talked about the Boras Four. Well worth the $2-3 per month to get that kind of insight direct to your inbox.
DitD
“they do great analysis for FO subscribers”
I haven’t seen much in their free stuff to suggest that that would be true.
FG’s analysis is heads and shoulders above MLBTR’s, IMO
Love me a good 2 in the morning deal! You can smell the cigarettes and coffee.
Well with that massive drop in asking price I think we have seen the shoe drop now and the others should get picked up quickly.
I wont be floored if the remaining 3 also go back to their teams from last year
BB
“You can smell the cigarettes and coffee.”
Gross
Funny, growing up in the mid ’70’s those 2 smells combined with toast were the smells of morning for me. I’d come down after getting ready for school and there was mom sitting at our kitchen counter with the newspaper, tv on, toast on a napkin, cup of black coffee and a cig in the ashtray and enjoying her morning.
Magical moments from my youth.
And no I never smoked.
“Boras Four to come down to earth”..A good sports agent operates in the background, keeps salary asks and details quiet, shields his client from negativity and does not grab every microphone, trying to be the star of the show. By this measure, the over-the-top, bombastic, mercurial Scott Boras is not a good agent.
Boras likes to get attention as much as his players. The man loves the media attention, and it shows with his colorful language during his press conferences.
“Boras likes to get attention”…Manny Machado’s & Ohtani’s agent got them WAY MORE $ and we don’t even remember their names. The only reason Boras is so well known is he never met a microphone or public forum he didn’t love.
A good sports agent also gets his clients as much money as possible, and gets them where they want to go. If Bellinger wanted to stay in Chicago, and if this was the best deal available, he did a good job.
“A good sports agent”..You ask for $264M and accept less than 1/3 of that and that’s a “good job?”. Nice spin bro and I’d certainly hate to hear your definition of a bad job.
It’s on for Snell and Montgomery now. Let’s see who gets them!
I wish the Tigers would offer Montgomery 5 Years & $100M with No Opt-Outs.
If he turns it down, let him walk.
He’s walking. I don’t think he’d choose Detroit for double that money.
Idk, they’re pretty widely considered an up and coming team with a lot of young talent that’s starting to click. I could see it, especially since it’s a pitchers park.
They’ve improved but Harris still has a lot of work to do. Tigers fans have to hope that all the draft capital they spent on Pitchers before they all got hurt bears fruit. They need them to come back healthy to take a step forward. The odds seem against that IMO. But Harris is a good man for the job.
Don’t be mistaken. He would easily choose the Tigers for double the money. It’s called business..
For Mariner fans that wondered if Seattle was making an effort…they weren’t.
Daniel Kramer had reported that they were never ‘in’ on him, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t interested, it likely means they checked in and learned they’d never be able to afford him and/or he wasn’t interested in Seattle.
Aloha folks, great job by Hoyer not giving into Boras demands and overbidding on basically themselves. Gives some time for the younger talent to develop. If Cody does well this season he’ll most likely opt out like Correa did in his first contract with Minnesota. Mahalo
It’s a safe deal for both player and club. Fair pay for his peak potential, manageable pay if he drops off, opt outs if he truly can get someone to hand him like 5 years/$160M or something crazy on the open market and a $26.67M AAV on 3 year deal that works out to mediocre value is extremely middle of the road in today’s market. Also if he completely flames out and this deal is it for him, it secures his financial future with a substantial final payday from baseball.
Meh but also quiet respectful hand clap for this conclusion to the Cody Bellinger free agency saga.
So not unlike the 3-year deal Correa took with the Twins then. If Cody puts up great numbers again in 2024, he’ll have two straight seasons of proven success, and by then, even the Cubs will offer a long-term deal. This also gives the Cubs a chance to see what PCA and Busch can bring to the table. I am pleasantly surprised by this.
Sure I’ll take the 30 million you know you deserve to pay me on the life of this contract. You can offer the option years, but at-least I’m getting paid to double down again on my market.
Cubs raked Boras over the coals on this one.
I think Jed Hoyer realized that he didn’t have to bend to what Boras wanted since he didn’t have any real suitors. Cubs never bid against themselves on this one.
For years and years Boras has been able to get top dollar for clients really not deserving of it. I think most owners are tired of his BS and let’s face it. His crop this year isn’t that impressive. Chapman is slightly above average 3rd baseman who hasn’t hit in years. Blake Snell is a 5 inning starter who walks way too many and this past year he got very lucky that a lot of those walks didn’t turn into runs. Jordan Montgomery is Jeff Suppan 2.0. Yes I know Monty is a lefty but he’s a middle of the rotation arm who had a great post season and now he wants to be paid like a number 1. Bellinger has to have mixed feelings. He got paid well despite all the red flags but it’s a 3 year deal. You now he wanted at least 5. Boras has to make this move. Collusion against the players no. Collusion against one agent yes. Boras’s “mystery team” and “better offers elsewhere” isn’t working out to well this off-season.
Chris
Glad you’re here to think about the poor billionaire owners getting taken advantage of by big mean Scott Boras.
:jerk off motion:
I bet that’s a motion your really good at. It’s millionaires against billionaires so I don’t have a dog in that fight. Boras’s tactics have made him into a comic book villain. He’s not robbing the rich and feeding the poor. He’s a sports agent.
Chris
“It’s millionaires against billionaires so I don’t have a dog in that fight. ”
But here you are licking boots anyway
“He’s a sports agent.”
So, not a villain at all? Just a dude doing a job.
“He’s not robbing the rich and feeding the poor.”
Nope. He’s not robbing anyone. He’s supporting labor against capital. Something you should probably be supporting – but, since you’ve been brainwashed and haven’t put any of your brain cells to thinking about the issue (or, it appears towards thinking about the valuation of baseball be players) – you just regurgitate the lines that you’ve been fed.
Chris
Muted (homophobia. And an idiot)
To even make that implication shows how truly small minded you are. You are defending someone who doesn’t even know you exist. You are obviously that rare paragon of virtue who is never wrong and always right. It shows how simple you really are.
Boras must have been desperate to get Bellinger signed. Seems like Cubs got a team friendly contract considering Boras & Bellinger were initially asking for $200M+
Bellinger’s signing may send a message to the remaining Boras clients. Boras’ waiting game backfired on him. The remaining Boras clients may not get the contracts they are seeking.
Current & future clients may re-evaluate their association with Boras.
I’m guessing Bellinger pushed Boras on signing. I think Bellinger was willing to sit out a week but not longer.
Agree 100%
Admittedly, I’m probably one of the older readers of these articles, but to me this opt-out stuff has gotten out of hand.
It’s just so Bellinger can have a great 2024 season and test the market again to get a long-term deal. For the Cubs, it’s a way to not be tied up long-term deal with a player that has a chance to regress again. They learned from the Jason Heyward deal.
The opt outs are in no way beneficial to the cubs. They’re all downside. If he’s good, he opts out, if he’s bad, they’re stuck with him.
It is the compromise for agreeing to a short-term deal. Cubs clearly want him to play well enough that opting out is a no brainer. The downside risk is tolerable in their view as far as only being a 3yr pill to swallow even though AAV is significant.
I think you’re confused. If he opts out it means he had a great year, likely the cubs make the playoffs. But they have an 80 tool CF waiting in the wings, how is that bad for the Cubs?
Because they are taking on the risk that he’s bad without the benefit of retaining him if he’s good. If it was just 3/80 and he was good enough to opt out, they’d be able to trade him for something if they wanted to let PCA play rather than letting him go for nothing. If it were 1/30, they’d be able to move on from him if he’s bad. However, they’re stuck with another 2 years/50m if that’s the case.
This really isn’t that complicated.
You are right it is not complicated, but it’s a negotiation. Bellinger and Boras wanted the opt out as the prize for accepting way less years and total contract guarantee than anyone envisioned. If his play declines or injury occurs, both lose relative to what their respective goals are.
Opt outs amazing for players. Awful for teams. I am probably one of the younger readers.
Next up for a mystery team……Chapman perhaps signing 2/40mil with opt out. That might be tops for a meh declining bat (6th type hitter in decent lineup) that still defends well at older age.
“Jason Werth will totally transform the way Major League teams view outfielders” – Scott Boras.
Definitely not the 12 year $250 million commitment that was predicted here. Still, 3 years and $80 million is far better than he could have done this late in the game. I suspect with Bellinger out of the way perhaps Snell accepts whatever the Yankees offer is and the ball starts rolling on the remaining free agents
Hopefully the Red Sox can get Montgomery, he makes a lot of sense for them, and the price should be dropping too.
If the prices for Snell and Montgomery drop I think you’d see half the league back in on them.
Way off what was predicted. Boras either screwed him by waiting this lo no or the predictions set the expectations were insane high and we our just shocked. Personally, belly and snell are similar profile to me. Yes, their great years are special, but their bad years can really sting. Especially if it’s at the cost these guys were projected to earn. It’s just a huge gamble for that kind of money.
Predictions high. This is a great contract for Bellinger.
This is a smart deal for Bellinger, if he puts together another good year he still can get his big payday!
Define big payday? Maybe 6/162 -180 but no way is he getting 12/265 that was thrown around and he becomes a year older next year. Lets see if Bellinger gets rid of his agent after this fiasco!
Think 10/300. Cubs just set his value at $30 million per and he will get 8-10 years if he has another good season in 2024.
Unless he crushes the ball again he will likely never see a season as good as 2023 again. Maybe he can get a few more hrs to make up for the lower average. Needs to hit the ball as hard as he did last decade if he wants a big long term deal.
A lot of criticism of Boras here, but I think he got Bellinger some security. The asking price of $200m or whatever isn’t necessarily outlandish given Bellinger’s age, but the risk in the profile is still a pretty obvious one and this gives Bellinger an $80m pillow. If he is more like the peripherals suggest, he’s still valuable as a league average hitter who can play a premium position well so the $80m isn’t all downside. But it’s still a fair bit to pay for that. Especially if he moves off of CF over the course of the deal or if actual production falls even lower than those peripherals suggest. I don’t see any downside here for Bellinger. Even if he does opt in to both those years He still has his age 30 season as a platform ahead of another chance at a multi year deal.
What peripherals are you talking about? The ones that matter, SO rate, BB rate, contact rate, PwrSpd all point to another great year from Bellinger. He said he sacrificed power for contact and still hit 26 HR.
Overly simplistic would be xwOBA. Or any of the metrics that attempt to be predictive that lead to almost all of the projection systems pointing towards a slightly above average hitter.
Chapman going to regret that 100-120mill extension from Toronto last year. Hope the Bluejays scoop him up on a similar 80mill deal.
“Chapman going to regret”…Chappy is essentially an all glove, no hit 3bman. It’s been said you can find this type of player in South or Latin America on virtually every street corner..Chapman is fortunate the media and baseball community even views him as worth more than 10-12M/yr.
While he is coming off one of his worst offensive years, he has a career 117 OPS+, you are acting like he is IKF!
Yeah, it’s overstated because he’s obviously better than IKF, but at this point he really is a just above average offensive player. And defense rarely ages that well.
It’s a win-win for both parties. Cubs stay in the mix to contend. Bellinger gets $30M to prove last year was not a fluke and try the market again next year. And if something happens, he can stay for year 2 at another $30M. At the end of the day, will he gross more than $260M in the next 12 years? Probably. Many of you are looking at today only. Look at the outfield free agents next year or in 2026. Look at the big salaries coming off the books in the next two years for many teams. The money will be there if Bellinger performs. And if he doesn’t, is life so bad with $80M in the bank?
He ain’t getting close to 260m let alone over.
For you, $80M would be outstanding because your peers likely do not command similar salaries. Belli was going for ~225 mil.
Now, he has to double down on a “prove it” year, which most of us and definitely all GMs know by now isn’t supported by metrics or common sense, so no, not such a bad life, but an awful outcome.
Who said he was going for $225? MLBTR? I don’t think they speak for Bellinger or Boras.
How is it awful?
He was bad for a couple years, the Dodgers non-tendered him, which is awful, but then he got $17.5MM from the Cubs, and is now guaranteed another $80MM over three years even if he reverts to 2022 form, which would bring his career earning to over $140 million. So basically he monetized his horrible 2022 into nearly $100MM over four years, and he can go out get even more if he has a solid 2024.
He took a shot to see if the market would give him more at this moment, it didn’t, so he got at minimum $80 million, and will get another shot a year on.
I’m not seeing the awful.
Cody earned that 80 million 2017-2019.
Boras flopped and landed ~40% of what was rumored as the request by industry insiders articled here and on twitter. Maximizing future earnings now requires future performance, which is at best kicking the can down the road.
Cause rumors and industry insiders are more knowledgable than Boras and the owners. Remind me to invest in the stock market based on rumors.
I think we can all agree his tepid market confirmed an inflated ask by Boras.
But yes, I do trust this site and industry sources for disseminated information which in this case was an initial ask “north of 200 million”.
So he can take 2024 off.
Glad he’s off the board.
Question: What would be this season’s numbers to validate $30M ?
This will help me predict if he opts out,
Curious.
wc
4 WAR
Repeat last year.
It’s interesting, looking at recent high-end signings who actually stayed healthy and performed in line with their contracts last year, Freeman, Seager, Semien, Olson, Betts are all decent examples. They come out to about $4M/1 WAR If you go more to the Ramirez, Swanson, Bogaerts level, they’re closer to 4.8M/1 WAR. If he puts up 6 WAR, that more than earns it using those examples as comps.
Yep same as last year. That’s worth 30 million. But unless he hits the ball harder last years numbers are unlikely to happen. But maybe he hits a few more hrs to make up for lower average. Steals more bases? Plays a good CF and they don’t use him much at 1b?
But he isn’t getting a mega contract unless he hits the ball harder. Unless one of the stupid teams gets stupid. Padres new ownership. Mets new gm. So that leaves Boston LA and we know which LA and Yankees. Boston doesn’t seem to want to spend anymore. Yankees will probably spend on Soto. Maybe a Colorado Detroit wants to waste some money. Not a great market for him.
That’s stupid. He hit 26 HR. If he has a 133 OPS+ in 2024 with 25-26 HR he is going to get paid as much long term as he is in 2024.
At best, I figured 7 or 8 years at 200 was the best Bellinger would get. 12 years is ludicrous!
Even sadder for the weakest member of the community who rarely makes any predictions and the ones they do are almost always wrong, to find such enjoyment from this.
Nice! I predicted another correct free agent signing.
NYY missed out here. This was their perfect CF to save AJ’s life and career. He costs what Stanton costs BUT IS PRODUCTIVE!!! Yankees were talking about signing “more guys” lol they must have meant to the minor still… zzzzzzzz
NYY missed out here.
========================
In retrospect, yes. I like the alignment of Verdugo-Belli-Judge better. And Belli would’ve been a heck of a lot cheaper.
He’ll be on the market next year when NYY will be shopping for a 1b and potentially an OF.
Bellinger’s deal ( or a similar deal with Snell) would cost the Yankees 185 million over 3 years. No chance they go there.
NY dodged a bullet.
Boras had fold on one of his FA to show that he can create safe deals for his players with an opt out. He’s probably going to do the same now on Snell/Montgomery deals.
Finally, the 2 big dogs are off the board. Bellinger and Tim Anderson
“Finally the 2 big dogs are off”..Once Tim Anderson backed off his demands for a statue the Fish quickly signed him.
I hope everyone is ready for Deez predictions!!!
1. Cards 86-76
2. Reds. 83-79
3. Cubs. 81-81
4. Brew. 80-82
5. bucs. 78-84
Unless the cubs add snell or Montgomery I can’t take them seriously. Reds are young and exciting and could sneak in and win the division if the cards struggle.
But you take the cards pitching seriously
Bro Lance Lynn is your number three starter..simmer down. U guys will be lucky to have third place in my estimation. We will see. Cubs or Reds win the division.
Seems like a reasonable prediction Deez. I also wouldnt be surprised if the order of finish, and the associated W-Ls were completely flipped.
You have the cardinals improving by 15 games when they are basically rolling out the same team with another year of declines from Goldschmidt and Arenado. They were 19th in all MLB in runs scored last year, after being hyped as in of the best lineup in history. They replaced wainrights 7 era with Lynn’s 5.7 and Gibsons 4.7. It amazes my how actual production and results are so often ignored by Cardinals fans and I was a season tickets holder for a decade.
ihps
“You have the cardinals improving by 15 games when they are basically rolling out the same team ”
Nothing weird about that
The team underperformed last year.
Regression in 2024 is likely
They didn’t under perform last year, they just performed. They were 20 games over .500 against the central in 2022 and 10 under last year. Goldschmidt’s decline started late 2022, continued last year and will be furthered this year. Baseball is not kind to 36 year old 1B. Arenado started declining last year to. 3B is hard in the body, he will continue to decline as well. So I’m not sure where a regression happens. The offense is low mid and the rotation is terrible. They will won’t get to the 2023 71 win total. They could very well only get to 60 wins.
ihps
“They didn’t under perform last year, they just performed. ”
Citation Requested
They had 14 pitching fWAR and 19 batting/defense fWAR
That’s 33 fWAR which is an 81 win total.
“They will won’t get to the 2023 71 win total. They could very well only get to 60 wins.”
Wanna bet?
Citation? They played 162 games last year, they were what their record says they were. They were bad. I projected it going into last year. And they are going to run the same team out there again this year with Goldschmidt and Arenado one more year removed from their prime and a pitching staff that didn’t get better. Meanwhile the entire rest of the division got better for the second year in a row.
Ihps
“Citation?”
Yes.
“they were what their record says they were. ”
Citation requested.
“They were bad. I projected it going into last year. ”
No, you didn’t
But, I tell you what. Let’s make a bet
If the Cardinals are over .500 this year, you delete your account.
If they are under 71 wins, I’ll delete mine
Money where your mouth is?
They were 71 and 91. You can look up their 2023 record on a number of sites.
As far as my prediction last year, my screen name at the time was Guest678. My prediction was sub .500 season finishing no higher than third in the division behind at least the cubs and brewers. My reasoning, they were only 3 games above .500 outside of the division in 2022, so with the rest of the division ready to compete in 2023, a putrid pitching staff, and the intro of the balanced schedule they were going to get exposed for being able to hide how bad the team actually was.
Sure, I’ll delete my account if they finish over .500. No worries about that one.
ih8
“They were 71 and 91. You can look up their 2023 record on a number of sites”
No one is arguing what their record was
Any nerd who just looks at stats and Evo never played the game can see that.
“Sure, I’ll delete my account if they finish over .500. No worries about that one.”
Marked and noted
Don’t let me down
I’m sorry I don’t hold on to the past and can see past the propaganda pushed by the local media. The current state of the cardinals wasn’t hard to predict. It started going down hill after TLR left. I didn’t renew my season tickets in 2017!after having them for a decade. I told my sales rep when Mozaliak is gone, I’ll be back. I’ll still watch every game and look forward to laughing at Oli’s post game comments. But just like last year, I’m expecting a bottom 5 or 6 team in all of baseball. With Chase Davis and a top ten draft pick this year and next, I’m looking forward to a good team in 2027.
ih8
Ok,sir. But this is a Wendy’s
Like many divisions I think any of the top 4 could win the division and 1 more to get a WC.I think win totals for MIL, CUB, and CIN should be higher but not much. I could see division up for grab going into the last week. No disrespect to PIT intended, improving team. Show me state fans can be sceptical StL of Lynn’s contribution. You would think Matz will improve even if as a pt or ft reliever
I think the Reds have the most potential and balance. If the kids all take a step forward they could run away with that division the way it is situated.
I like Cody, but not at $30 mil! Wooow, good the Cubs didn’t go long term. Similar contract on deck for Snell!
It’s going to be interesting to see how Boras works the next 3 contracts. If he doesn’t land what he needs to keep his reputation, I’m wondering if he changes his tactics and/or players move on from him. Right now other agents are probably progressing that money on the table is mostly gone when Boras arrives and those that do have luxury room are normally too cheap to pay the ask.
My guess is that this turns into a lousy contract for the Cubs. They probably pay year 3 (and maybe year 2) without Bellinger even playing for them.
Ha, that makes no sense. He was projected to get 200+ for 6/7 years(THAT would have been a “lousy” contract) this is a GREAT deal for the Cubs. They didn’t panic, didn’t budge and got their guy for what they were comfortable with.
I guess Bellinger really did want to go back to the Cubs and good on Jed for not bidding against himself.
He’s not a pitcher. He will play. Likely won’t be worth 30m or even 20m worth but he will play.
Go Cubs Go!!!
I’m as anti Boras as the next guy but if the market wasn’t there (or isn’t in the case of Montgomery/Snell) it wouldn’t magically be there if they had different representation.
Problem is I think Boras has rejected so many deals in his time he creates this non market for his players because lot of GM’s don’t like dealing with him. I firmly believe it’s less about his players than it is about him.
Somewhat agree, but if an GM or POBO refuses to consider the player just because he’s repped by Scott Boras, they shouldn’t be a GM or POBO. IMHO
Don’t know why anyone pays attention to Boras. I wouldn’t even have a agent or find one to work for cheap. If you can negotiate fine enough and understand contracts no need to give away your money.
Glad it got done. It is essentially a one year thirty million dollar deal while he keeps the seat warm for PCA. I am happy..Glad it wasn’t the five year deal people had been talking about. Now let’s go win this winnable division.
Too much sentimentality in this deal. I think Chapman would’ve been the better get overall. PCA will hit enough to stay in CF and any combo of Mervis/Bush/Wisdom, etc at 1B would’ve been the biggest risk, but worth taking if they saved enough to get say… a Michael A Taylor at 4-5m to play CF.
He could be next on a similar deal…
Finally! Jed really cooked on this one. Would have preferred the opt out after only the second year, but way better than a 6-8 year deal.
Glad Bellinger is both off the board and back with the Cubs. The fit was there. While it’s not $200mill, ultimately this is a very player friendly deal. If Bellinger continues his pace from last year, he can test the market again and if not he’s covered.
I wonder if Bellinger would have accepted this all along and Boras was Borasing.
I wish the Tigers would offer Montgomery 5 Years & $125M with No Opt-Outs.
If he turns it down, let him walk.
Was Belli on the team last year when the cubs choked away a playoff spot the last ten days of the season..
Yes, but you know who isn’t returning? Davis Ross. The choke was on him.
Replaced with another choker Counsel
Hey to be fair, Counsell only chokes once his team is in the playoffs.
WOW! Well done Jed! The Cubs never wanted to commit to 200+ million for several years. They stood their ground and still got their guy! Boras really took one on the chin.
Be ready Cubs nation gonna be fun in chicago. Its gonnna happen. Again.
For those few stating Bora$$ did well with this signing, I have a bags of doggie doo on sale if you are interested….. it’s really good S***, lets make a deal?
*opt out of final 2 years and $40M not $50M right? Or am I missing a bonus or something?
Jay Z
“*opt out of final 2 years and $40M not $50M right? Or am I missing a bonus or something?”
It’s $80 million.
So, 30, 30, 20
So, if he opts out after year 1, it’s $50 million
Judge will be getting $40 mil a year until he’s 39.
Cubs did well here.
The massive difference is overall consistency from the player. Judge’s production had never been up and down like Bellinger’s has.
Still a wain foe Boras. Belli not close to a 30 mil a year player and he’s guaranteed 2 at that price.
thats the dumbest comment of the day
He’s not wrong.
Good job by the Cubs to finally get their “whale” ummm one year rental. Gives them flexibility and options depending on how PCA and Busch play this year and good for Belli to prove last season wasn’t a one year thing. Boras will be fine. Win some lose some. If Belli does well and Yankees fail to sign Soto next season, Belli probably gets to bank on a big fat contract with the Yankees (especially if Soto signs with the new ownership group in Baltimore).
For the Padres, any chance we get some crumbs and Cubbies trade Tauchman to us now and save you a little petty cash on your payroll?
They hope it’s only a 1 year rental.
I bet Bellinger switches agents before he hits the market next year or the year after.
Hopefully this will help other impactful free agents to finally make a deal. Teams like SF, TOR, LAA, NYY, BOS maybe NYM I suspect
Giants roster is already set.
So if Bellinger replicates or betters his numbers from last year and opts out, what type of contract is he looking at at age 29?
15 years $250 billion. payments deferred to the year 2058.
Similar to this or not exercising his player option. Unless it’s the betters path and the better is exit velocity and hard hit percentage etc.
According to MLBTR if that happens he’s looking at an Ohtani contract.
So basically a 1 year $30M…bleh Cubs got hosed as usual.
They hope. Might be 2 years 60m with 38 or 42m production. They hope.
If it ends up being a one year 30 million deal that means the cubs get another highly productive season out of bellinger and 50 mill in payroll freed up to spend on pitching or whatever roster retooling and adds they may need going into the 24-25 off-season. Bellinger gets another bite at the apple for a long term bag without the qo hanging over him. Basically win-win.
Except you’re ignoring that the cubs took on the risk of 80m, not just 30. It’s a win-win in the best case scenario, that doesn’t always happen.
Ya I know but I was responding to a person who was talking like the best case scenario is the problem with this deal.
Sounds good both ways. The Cubs likely get him for one year before he opts out. Belli gets at least $80M, and could easily line up for $100M/5 after this contract expires.
Cubs hope.
Now Cubs have a puncher’s chance at the playoffs. If they make it the deal was worth it in $$.
The only way Cody Opts out of the contract after this year is if he has a monster of a year and wins his second MVP and the Cubs go all the way.
He will opt out of the contract after the second year if he has bee playing like he did last year.
Oh, $30 Million per season for two seasons is more than enough.
Jake
“The only way Cody Opts out of the contract after this year is if he has a monster of a year and wins his second MVP and the Cubs go all the way.”
I do not think that is the ONLY way
He’s not getting higher amount of money.
His market never happened and he needs to prove last year was the turn in the right direction.
If he has a stunning year where it shows two consecutive years of plus hitting and his fielding stays gold glove then he opts to try the market but who is going to pay more than thirty a year and I truly believe he is not getting a contract that is five plus years.
He will try the market after the second year of this contract if he is healthy.
Being sign stealing and the juiced ball are no-more the MVP Bellinger will not be around.
He might opt out thinking another team is stupid enough to give him a contract with opt outs. Or he will do whatever Boras says and if he says opt out he will.
Nice signing and a reasonable price. This bumps their 2024 win projection to 84-78, making for a solid season.
They went from unlikely to a puncher’s chance at the playoffs. No real threat to Braves Dodgers, Philies, Dbacks, and possibly Reds.
Last season they should have made the playoffs but failed because of Ross.
They added pen help, rotation help and got Cody back, and if they can add Matt Chapman on a short contract then they will win the Central…
Heck, as weak as the Central is it is either the Cubs or Reds and my money is on the Cubs.
They have so much talent coming up that this team is built.
This year I will say they make the playoffs and next year they will win the World Series.
Oh, Cody plays First Base unless PCA runs a wall over and breaks his neck.
so when does he report to spring training?
All those news, rumors, articles were all wrong. They were mostly propaganda from Boras. Teams are not stupid. 150m, 200m bs.
$80m is still solid and what he earned.
“… low cost deal…” LOL
Someone pass the hat!
Yes, it’s not exactly low cost, but in comparison to what he was predicted to get, it is.
Inconsistent player. Good luck.
1. Good for tbe Cubs not giving in to Boras’ ridiculous commands of 200mil dollars
2. I wanted if Bellinger finally stepped in and accepted a deal because he knew he wasn’t gonna get 200 million or even 150mil.
3. The first domino of the remaining Boras clients signs. I hope Snell and Montgomery sign somewhere soon. Especially since games have started already. The longer they wait the less affective they potentially are and that can lead towards an injury.
Boras never made any demands. No one has written that he did.
This site predicted that he would get $264 million over 12 years. The Athletic predicted he would get $210 million over 10 years.
None of that came from Boras.
Boras just got his client a deal that sets his minimum AAV for the deal he will get in 2025 at $26-30 million. FAR more than anyone predicted.
He set his market at 200mil dollars. That’s what he asked for. That’s pretty much a demand. He did the exact same thing for Jake Arrieta. He set his market at 200mil based on his previous 2 years of pretty much dominance. Arrieta “settled” for 3/75 mil with the Phillies. And it wasn’t good.
Bellinger was one of the most talked about free agents in these comments for the last 3+ months now he gets signed and it seems like a big nothingburger story to me. Same team and a fraction of what everybody was saying he would get.
500 comments on a article that was half a day late.
A fair deal for the Cubs and Belli. An embarrassment for Boras. Be interesting if Bellinger fires him. Kudos to Hoyer for reining him in to further his comeback, mentor PCA and Busch.
Hp
Why would this be an embarrassment for Boras? What?
You said it’s a fair deal
People are crazy
Ahhh. Now he can go back to hitting .198
Well, he does have opt out after first and second yr, so there’s a good chance he will be trying. It’s a great deal for the Cubs.
Lisa must be credited. Even Passan has.
Bellinger lander in the spot I thought he would and with a contract similar to what I thought. NO ONE was going to give him a 6+, 25+ million a year contract guaranteed. He had a nice bounce back season but the injury and performance the two years before doesn’t equate big investment.
What is interesting is he metrics from last year do not equate to his final numbers. It is almost like everything fell his way. Even if he drops of to a .250, high strikeout, 780+ OPS guy it is still a good move for the Cubs. They aren’t locked long term if this goes south.
26 home runs for someone who had a barrel rate in just the 27th percentile.
Is that the most home runs for someone with such a low barrel rate?
Answered my own question, it is not. Alex Bregman, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorious, Rougned Odor, Jose Ramirez, Adam Jones, Mookie Betts, Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier, and Brian McCann have all had a season where they hit 26 or more home runs with a barrel rate of 6% or lower. However, it has not been done during the 2020s. The last players do accomplish this was in 2019 with Bregman and Gardner.
Bregman’s free agency will be interesting next year. Will he face the same scrutiny of the batted ball metrics? Similar guy but has shown it’s repeatable. Crawford boxes aren’t a feature at every stadium.
The thing is Bregman has always been productive despite meh batted ball metrics. 2023 was the first year Bellinger was an above league average hitter with a poor exit velo and barrel rate. Bregman’s highest single season barrel rate was 7.6% in 2018 when he had a 152 OPS+. Last two years he has a 6.3% barrel rate and 127 OPS+. If Bellinger can have another productive season while still having a mediocer exit velo and barrel rate, more teams might buy into it.
Yes. He’s had great results with those metrics. It’s the max exit velos that surprise me for a guy with consistent power production. But it’s really elite strike zone management so you believe in his ability to execute a plan. Also, for Bregman, there aren’t huge gaps between his xwOBAs and actual wOBAs the way Bellinger has.
And 2019 had the juiced ball
Gardner hitting 28 home runs was such a 2019 thing to happen. That’s not to say that Gardner never had any power, but 20.1% of his career home runs originate from 2019.
Ok. Admittedly a Dodgers fan here, but ZERO chance I would have given Bellinger a long, huge AAV deal.
He had three bad to downright terrible seasons in a row – and sure injury might have been in play BUT so was his absolute stubborn refusal to change his stance to something that makes sense. Plus, his underlying numbers suggest a future far closer to his 20-22 than his 23. He would have to repeat last year and even then, I’d probably still be afraid of a long, high AAV contract. Despite great defense.
Add to it the TV revenue uncertainty of a number of teams, the year after the year after a CBA spending splurge, and some bigger market teams pulling back spending, and this is what you get. I see it as a small win for Bellinger, and a BIG win for the Cubs.
As for the other Boras clients, did he over play the hand there? Unlike Bellinger, it is safer to say that Snell and probably Montgomery will NEVER have better platform years. These pillow contracts are harder for pitchers. Still betting they get paid – even if not the years and dollars they had hoped for when the offseason began.
But Boras is going to have to get that one team for each to bite – just takes one. Boston HAS to be lurking, Ditto Giants. And I bet the Cardinals are kicking themselves over wasting so much on Gibson and Lynn next year – cause allocating that money to Snell or Monty to pitch with Gray would have been a lot nicer!
Joel Wolfe could have got that done 3 months ago.
One of the worst Mlbtr contract misses ever?
some where out there , there was an NL only snake draft that went on this morning , whereby 9 of 10 owners relied solely on mlbtraderumors.com for information
The one owner who used another website was able to snag Cody Bellinger in round 19
I like that the Cubs re signed Bellinger I love that Boras wanted 200m and got 80m suck it Boras
30+20+20 =/= 80
Thanks!
I seem to recall a late season press conference where Jed was asked about the likelihood of bringing Cody back. And although he gave the usual GM non-response, the typically stone-faced Jed could barely hold back from grinning. I think he knew back then that Cody wanted to come back and he could leverage that to get a reasonable deal as he has just done.
Except it took the rest of MLB not wanting anything to do with his initial contract demands. Did Jed have a crystal ball to see it play out that way?
I think it’s quite clear that he did!
Or they just had a figure they were comfortable with and didn’t move off it and you’re reading way too much into something you think you saw at a press conference.
$30M per year is not reasonable for a good but not great player.
At this short of a term it’s incredibly reasonable.
Love the Boras haters. Bellinger is now the fourth highest paid outfielder in 2024 – only Judge, Trout and Soto will be paid more in 2024. And most likely 2025 as well if he stays. There are numerous avenues to $200M+ – And I’m sure at the end of the day, Bellinger and Boras will get $200M+
BS metrics about his average EV and hard hit rate scared away a lot of GM.
Yankees should have pounced and put him at the top of the line up, but Cashman loves his power .2o0 hitters.
Cubs steal one.
Nothing bs about math.
it’s not the math, it’s the formula that is in error.
average EV only takes into account the number of times you put the ball in play.
So you can have one player hit the ball 3 times at 100 mph and strikeout the next seven times in a row and another player put the ball in play all ten times at 95mph and the first player will have a higher average EV.
Bellinger is getting his numbers skewed for putting the bat on the ball.
These metrics without batting average support to identify a success rate are meaningless.
And you think you know this and mlb gms don’t? Putting the bat on the ball without hitting it hard isn’t something they are thrilled about. Not for 200 million at least.
I have no idea what the GM’s know and dont know.
the entire argument against the big deal was his underlying metrics. That is all they talked about on all the sites and presented them as hard facts when in fact they weren’t, and I am laughing because even now you are making the same error in interpreting how average EV is attained.
You just can’t read and comprehend.
Yankee forever. You win Post of the day
Yankee forever You are correct. Don’t interact with that buffoon, he’s a well known troll.
obviously, my intellect is so far over your head, you would need to hire NASA to help you track it.
But dont fret, your are not alone when it comes to not looking at the data and just parroting whatever you are fed.
You’re just stupid. I know what you are saying. I know this. Anyone under 50 knows this. Teams know this. They still don’t like it.
What happened to the 200+mill contract these people were saying he will get. 80 for 3. Not even close
Ah the ole George Costanza maneuver, hold out for less money.
It’s essentially three one year prove-it contracts
Deal seems fine to me. Boras overplayed his hand but this isn’t horrible for Bellinger due to the opt outs, it reduces his risk, while still getting roughly what he projects to get over 3 years if he doesn’t. The Cubs trade-off for that is they don’t get stuck with a 34 or 35 year old Bellinger under any circumstance unless they re-sign or extend. This is a surprise for me though, I was kind of expecting something like 4/115, but it makes sense it would go down this way. Boras always asks for the moon, and often gets it, or at least forces the maximum contract possible, even if occasionally his players get the short end of that approach.
Still a huge overpay. So glad it’s the Cubs!
Naw its a win from both sides he wanted 6 or more years cubs get him on half that less risk..and 30 mill for the cubs is chump change really they have plenty..and he doesnt have to be the same as last year just somewhat close..his real value last year was his presence in the line up he put stress on pitchers cause you didnt wanna walk guys in front of him…leading to those guys seeing lil better pitches
Good, Glad this drama is finally over. Now get to work!
Boras promised him a 100 million more lol.
Glad to see Boras lose. Happy for Bellinger in securing 80 mil after looking like an MVP flameout not that long ago… hopefully he ditches Boras and signs a bigger deal in a year or two
Well they can trade him if there not close to the playoffs too not much of a huge contract to trade either
Opt outs complicate things.
Not will they go after Chapman I mean his offense is ok but not great and how much is Chapman worth now with this deal belly is way better offensive
I hope they sign Montgomery too over Chapman
I think bush will be the 3rd baseman now tho with Belk signed maybe Montgomery I don’t see Chapman now with belly but you never know.
I heard they might do a trade for a 1 baseman and move belly to cf
Wait I thought Boras was going to get him 12yrs/$264mil? LOL.
Hi! I read a lot of the comments here and I’m glad there’s so much interest. Just to touch on few things:
– Our coverage generally ends at 11pm central and starts back up at 7am the following day. During really busy times of year we might end at midnight. So I am leaving the site open for something to break not long after we sign off and then we’re as much as eight hours late. This was one such situation and we were a good six hours late.
It sucks but even in times of better ad rates I don’t think I would be paying someone to cover the site at 1:15am on Feb 25. 99% of the time there’s no reason to have that.
Many times our awesome staff members happen to be online and they do write up late stuff, but that’s not in their job description. Steve wrote up Carlos Correa in the middle of the night once, Anthony, Darragh, and Mark have done those as well.
Waaaaay back in the day I asked some key newsbreakers if they’d be up for literally just calling me on the phone and waking me up. Ken Rosenthal actually did this once. It was kinda cool.
– Our $264MM Bellinger prediction was terrible, awful, all the adjectives. All those shots are justified, we took a big swing and missed by a ton.
I think overall we’re as good as others at predicting stuff, but here we went well outside the consensus (most said about 150 mil) and paid for it. It’s OK – not the first or last time for that. I think some people stake our reputation to predictions. We try our best on them and it’s fun to do but I think it’s more important to analyze things well after they happen and I’m proud of our work doing that.
Some of this stuff is somewhat unpredictable and that’s what makes it fun, in my opinion. So yes, six years and $150 mil would have been a more accurate prediction in total dollars, but it wouldn’t have really served our readers in that it was still far off. In October, nobody thought Bellinger would have to settle for 80 mil. I find it pretty interesting that he had to and there’s a lot to unpack with that.
Believe it or not, I do think precedent supported $200MM+ on Bellinger. I think we’ve made that case in places but I’m sure this will be a topic of podcasts and such. You can check that out and consider the argument, or you can just call us dumb and move on, your mileage may vary!
Take a deep breath tim..you have an awesome websight been a member for years..you can’t always be right but its not a big deal..you provide valueable insights …don’t let the haters get to you..the fact that you even take the time to respond shows you care and puts you far ahead of most similar sights..keep doing what you do all is good
+1 to justme’s comment, Tim. MLBTR is a great site, and one reason for this is your down-to-earth willingness to engage with your audience in posts like this. I appreciate you and Steve and the other writers at MLBTR for being so genuine.
Websight?
I wouldn’t pay for anyone to work graveyard. If you were willing to get up at 2 am and write a article you could give your bat phone burner number to trusted night owls. After a few weeks you would find out who the best legit options are and can change number to eliminate the trolls.
Just looking at hard hit data it’s obvious he would never get even half that amount. Unless a weak front office team wanted him. Padres new ownership. Mets new gm. Rockies Tigers already spent their stupid $. Maybe Angels. Yankees paid Ellsberry but seem to have wised up a bit. Giants were desperate for a star but likely one bigger than Bellinger. Odds weren’t good at finding a buyer. Terrible miss but you took a swing. Learn and move on.
I don’t think anyone in the business realized how much the media revenue uncertainty was going to affect this market. Over half the league has uncertainty after this year. It didn’t affect the top or the bottom of the market but the second tier has been affected a great deal.
Next year may be worse if the revenue uncertainty isn’t resolved. I don’t see the Dodgers spending like this again next year.
I love your predictions, I think they’re basically always in line with most other prognosticators from any number of other sports news publications and commentators.
Predicting contracts- landing spot, years, dollars, structure, etc.- and analyzing the final actual contracts are, personally, my favorite part of baseball outside of the game itself.
I can completely understand why you guys projected $264M given market conditions and the type of player Bellinger is and there are precedents for that projected contract value and the years.
I don’t think anybody could have predicted that the league would collectively decide to stop capitulating to the Boras model and force some equanimity within the market place.
Ultimately I don’t think many people could have predicted Bellinger’s 3 year/$80M deal in its final form. I am sure a lot of people might have predicted 1 year/$30M or $35M or 2 years/$60M or even 2 years/$75M, etc. but 3 years/$80M was probably not a common projection by any stretch, so I think it caught literally everybody off guard.
Keep doing what y’all do around here. You’re the best.
Bellinger got a $12.5 million raise for next season and if he repeats 2023 goes right back on the market and gets a 10/300 deal?
If he reverts to 2022 the Cubs still owe him $50 million?
That’s a huge win for Bellinger. He gets a much higher AAV than anyone thought possible which sets the base for his next deal and he is a FA again at 29.
Hard hit data needs to improve a lot to get 300m. Like last decade numbers. Even then it was only 1 year and he is another year older. Likely 300 isn’t happening.
He gets 26.3 million aav. MLBTR predicted 26 million over TEN years. Boras said before Christmas he expected to get 200 million minimum. That is most certainly not a huge win.
MLBTR predicted 12/264 which is $22 million AAV.
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-age…
It’s not a huge win for Belli. It’s a great insurance and a good deal for him and the Cubs. If he gets hurt and falls apart agin he gets 80 mil regardless. Had he signed a 200 mil contract he gets 200 mil regardless. I think both sides are happy. Cubs fans are thrilled. Boras is hoping Belli can get 200 after ’24 or it will look bad for him.
He just got a raise to $30 million from $17.5 million. By having another great year like he did in 2023 he proves it wasn’t a fluke He will be a free agent again at season’s end and will be looking at a deal for 10-11 years at $30 million AAV instead of the $22 million this site predicted or the $20 million most sites predicted.
I don’t know what world you are living in, but in the real one back here its a huge win.
Boras has a track record that speaks for itself but he way overshot here and as much as I dislike the Cubs I hope he does enough to opt out and get a deal he should have already. Bellinger had the same issue Snell has. Very inconsistent highs and lows. He totally banked on the platform season and organizations overlooking bad seasons. There were opportunities for Bellinger to get solid long term deals perhaps with opt outs but he was so unrealistic demands everyone moved on to mostly trade acquisitions. The same thing will happen with Snell. The Yankees would have probably been able to pull off both but after hearing the sizable gap in expectations they pivoted to a trade for Soto and signing of Stroman. Snell will end up with a very similar contract. Personally on Montgomery I don’t think he was ever worth the kind of money that was even predicted. He was very solid for the Cardinals and through his career but his asking price is all about a amazing run with the Rangers but that’s a pretty small sample size of dominance to ask for dominant starter money. When the Cardinals traded him there was talk of resigning him because at the time he wasn’t a frontline starter and one the Cardinals were willing to pay but he looked so good in Texas I guess Boras thought was enough to command top market dollars. Really he has three guys that could use one more season to show they really have the goods consistently but he priced them over the market no I see no other choice. Boras has had success waiting out the market for one high caliber guy but not 3-4 that have question marks
Boras did well. Needed a stupid team to be interested. They weren’t. Nothing he could do. To get what I thought to not be a stupid team give him this risky contract this late was pretty impressive.
F for Chicago. If he somehow starts crushing the ball again he is worth the 30m. Hasn’t done that since 2019 so how likely is that. Then he just opts out. You risked 80 million on very poor odds and only got 1 year. Not likely he gets as lucky this year so probably back next year for another awful 30 million. He can hit 20 some hrs. Steal a few bags. Doesn’t K much. If you play him only in CF he would be worth about 20 million. Could have given them a D. He could get some luck. He could hit the ball a bit harder. The odds don’t favor that outcome though. And they will probably play him at 1b too much.
A for Bellinger.
My dream.GM. would know enough about baseball to know that signing an All-Star level player (which is what Bellinger will be if he opts out) for 1/$30 is not a F under any circumstance
I don’t project him to be a all star player in 2024. So you want to ignore future projections because of past results? Not a very good plan. His hard hit numbers don’t project all star production. He can always get lucky again or start hitting the ball hard again. He might opt out anyways. I wouldn’t bet a guarantee of 80m on it happening though. I hope this off season he made a adjustment or got stronger or healthier or something and opts out and gets paid. Unless he did something to get his exit data up I don’t think he is getting that 200 million deal.
YDGM
I may have misread the first part of your previous comment
FG projects Belli for about 8 WAR over the next 3 seasons,
8 WAR is worth about $64 million. So, $80 million would be an “overpay”, but not egregious. So, not an F.
Negative 16 million is a F. You failed. If it was 1 year 30 million it would be C. Unlikely you get positive value but you need him and it’s 1 year. With opt out no matter how awful he is or if he destroys his knee or needs tj or something crazy you get to pay him another 30 million in 2025. Team is hoping he opts out. Not a good situation.
YDGM
Negative 16 million is a rounding error – $5 ,million a year. A fraction of a win.
“ith opt out no matter how awful he is or if he destroys his knee or needs tj or something crazy you get to pay him another 30 million in 2025. Team is hoping he opts out. Not a good situation.”
This is always the thing that short-sighted people get wrong.
The options were something like $80 million with the optouts or $90 million with no optouts. If Bellinger sucks or tears up his knee, they saved money by including the opt outs.
I don’t think it’s a great deal for the Cubs. But certainly not an F.
Simply don’t offer opt outs. Or only offer 1 year deal. That’s why it’s a F. Weak negotiating.
YDGM
My dream GM would see the value of opt outs to the team
Since they have value to the player, they save the team money.
Again, signing Bellinger for 3/$80 with opt outs is better than signing him for 3/$90 with no opt outs if something goes bad.
I agree. I see the value. I just don’t want to do those types of contracts. If I think there is no way he is opting out I want the 10m cheaper one. But I wouldn’t sign him for either. Or if someone wanted to do 3 for 80 no opt out. If another team wants to give him opt outs fine. Let them have him. If I thought he was going to put up mvp numbers I would gladly do the 3 for 90 vs 3 80 and he is gone after 1 year.
My dream GM wouldn’t see gray situations so black and white
Your dream gm sounds like a lot of current weak gms.
YDGM
Uh huh
You sound like every week dude ever. Cocky and insulting to hide their lack of self-esteem
Guy was worth 4+ WAR last year while missing a month. Even if he is just a league average bat a good CF who can run a little is a 3WAR guy and worth more than $30 mil.. Add to that he is a good 1B – a gold glove corner OF and only 28?
I think clubs wanted to make sure Cody can do what he did in 2023, again. When he was in LA last few years, he was terrible. If you can’t get it together I. LA, then something is wrong. He had a great season last year but to committ 200million to a player who had a career year, seemed unwise. 2024 should be interesting.
@Dodgerfan34 The problem is, they didn’t do that.
The Cubs didn’t take out an insurance policy in the contract, they GAVE Bellinger an insurance policy. If he’s good he takes $30m and departs, where if he’s terrible, he takes $80m and sits.
Terrible deal for the Cubs, given he’s hugely unlikely to do better than 4 WAR in 2024.
If he’s good, they break even. If he’s bad, they’re paying 3/$80m for a backup OFer.
Jack, you’re just dumb .So there’s no point even engaging with you.
Nah. He is spot on. At least it’s only a 80Mil gamble. Not a 250Mil gamble.
Personally I think its a good gamble.at least he ain’t Vlad Junior who is eating and drinking himself out of the league.
‘One of free agency’s top hitters reached [an agreement] early Sunday morning..’ Does nobody proof read these before they get posted?
How do you know? Maybe the story is he did a reach around early Sunday morning
Holy overpay Batman
Eh, the AVV is a bit high because it’s a short term deal. Also Belli is a 28 yr old +CFer who was worth 4+ WAR last year after missing 1 month+ Even if the bat regresses into the 110-120 range it’s a good deal for the Cubs.
The one thing I never liked about free agency is the expectation that a new club is to overpay a player for the excess value he gave his old club. 28 teams don’t owe Snell a dime.
Good deal for both I guess. Cubs grab Cody for well below what the projected contract amount was, Cody gets the chance to re-enter FA as early as next year if he has another good season.
The speed of a 21 year old Billy Hamilton combined with the defense of a 24 year old Kevin Kiermaier combined with the power of Albert Pujols. Amazing that it took so much time for Belli to be signed
Congrats to the Cubs on this move to make them essentially about as good as they were last year.
Although I knew it wasn’t going to happen but he’d do well in GABP.
Wondering how “exit velocity” accounts for not over swinging), hitting a ball where it’s pitched, to the opposite field, etc. Same questions go with some of these other fine tuning stat attempts to predict the future, that are now taken as gospel. There are a myriad of variables around most of these stats that are not taken into account.
He brings a bunch of other positives into that dugout/lineup and was a pretty necessary signing with the current Cubs landscape. Risky contract only if he completely fails, which is pretty unlikely. Play ball.
@Heywally
Expected stats are not really worth their weight in gold. Fangraphs community did a good job of dispelling the gospel of them.
community.fangraphs.com/properly-diving-into-expec…
“Once you have a large enough sample size on a player, previous batting average, on-base percentage, weighted on-base average, home runs, and stolen bases are the best way to estimate what a player will accomplish in an upcoming season. There’s a lot of variability in surface-level statistics from one year to the next, but if you’re taking a weighted average of multiple seasons, that matters much less. Remember, baseball features a 162-game season, and is thus an inherently large-sample-size sport.”
Last to comment. Nice. What a great deal for both the Cubs and Bellinger. The Cubs get one more year of Bellinger and for PCA to develop in the minors. They pay a premium and jump over the CBT threshold, but they get a premium player for their money.
Bellinger gets $30 million for 2024 and goes back on the market after the season if he repeats 2023 on the field. Now instead of predictions between 8/160 and 12/264 that had been floated this offseason, he will be looking at a 8-11 year deal with a $30 million AAV. If he goes back to being the injury plagued player with stats like 2021 and 2022, he is still guaranteed $80 million.
For the idiots that will try, by now have tried, to say that Boras lost because he didn’t get what some WRITERS predicted, that is not how the market works. Boras is smart enough to realize that. You apparently are not. Boras got Bellinger a great deal
Mr. Deeds is straight-up incompetent, even more so than that hack Steve Adams. “Excellent as he was in 2023” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. The word “as” to start each sentence is not optional. Furthermore, “as such” shouldn’t have a comma before it. Fire this kid—he doesn’t understand basic grammar or punctuation.
Last couple of years the trend was to set the price and divided in too as many years posible (padres, rangers, mets, yankees). These year is more of a high average short term.
Borass misreading the market. I wonder what Julio Urias would had got? An unknown souse says Boras had a 350M on the table. I bet he would be unsigned yet.
The speed of a 21 year old Billy Hamilton combined with the defense of a 25 year old Kevin Kiermaier combined with the power of a 28 year old Albert Pujols and the hustle of a 29 year old Peter Rose.
Amazing it took this long for him to be signed.
Interesting note… the Cubs are around $ 3 MM below the CBT threshold meaning anyone signed above that value incurs penalties..
Emmanuel Clase’s 2024 salary number is $ 2.9 MM…
With the addition of Bellinger and or a more serious approach to the NL central race.. a deal that might hurt a little might be worth consideration..
Thoughts?
Why didn’t the defer 20 million a year till 2040? Oh wait its the cubs not Dodgers
Kind of bummed that boras was able to sign anyone. Looking forward to his demise and not having to hear about his bs anymore
What a hoot, they are already praying he’ll opt out, which he won’t ever do.