The Astros entered the offseason anticipating a few depth acquisitions. An injury to one of their anticipated setup relievers spurred them in another direction: a bold strike for one of the sport’s best late-game weapons.
Major League Signings
2024 spending: $25MM
Total spending: $107MM
Option Decisions
- RHP Héctor Neris declined $8.5MM player option in favor of $1MM buyout
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RHP Oliver Ortega off waivers from Twins
- Acquired RHP Dylan Coleman from Royals for minor league RHP Carlos Mateo
- Claimed RHP Declan Cronin off waivers from White Sox (later lost on waivers to Marlins)
- Acquired 1B Trey Cabbage from Angels for minor league RHP Carlos Espinosa
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Signed 2B Jose Altuve to five-year, $125MM deal covering 2025-29 seasons
Notable Losses
- Michael Brantley (retired), Martín Maldonado, Phil Maton, Neris, Ryne Stanek
The Astros very narrowly missed another trip to the World Series. They dropped two straight at home against the Rangers to lose a seven-game ALCS. Watching their in-state rivals secure the first championship in franchise history might add some fuel to the fire, but the Astros would’ve remained firmly in win-now mode no matter how things played in October.
That didn’t necessarily portend an active winter. Houston went into the offseason with a projected franchise-record payroll. They have one of the sport’s most complete rosters. They were set to lose a few contributors but no instrumental piece of the core. Michael Brantley (who eventually announced his retirement), Martín Maldonado and the relief trio of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek were Houston’s only free agents of note.
As a result, general manager Dana Brown indicated early in the winter that the team didn’t expect to do anything drastic. He suggested their outside acquisitions were likely to be more of the depth variety, identifying backup catcher and middle relief as the target areas.
Before they could turn their attention fully to the roster, the Astros had to address the coaching staff. Dusty Baker stepped down at year’s end, concluding what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame managerial career. Joe Espada, who had worked as bench coach under both A.J. Hinch and Baker, has long seemed to be a manager-in-waiting. The Astros tabbed Espada in mid-November, giving the 48-year-old his first managerial opportunity. Organizational stalwart Omar López moved up to bench coach.
Continuity was also a theme for much of the roster, although the Astros started the offseason with a few moves around the margins. During the Winter Meetings, they inked former Brewer Victor Caratini to a two-year, $12MM pact to serve as backup catcher. That marked the end of Maldonado’s run in Houston. The Astros declared before the winter that they’d turn the primary catching job to 25-year-old Yainer Díaz, who brings a lot more offensive upside than Maldonado offers. Given Maldonado’s stature in the clubhouse, it probably would have been tough to move him fully to a backup role in Houston. It made more sense to let him sign elsewhere — he eventually landed with the White Sox on a $4.25MM pact — and bring in a new #2 option.
Caratini wound up being Houston’s only MLB free agent position player pickup of the winter. It was their only major league signing at all well into January. That’s when the club revealed that Kendall Graveman required shoulder surgery that’d end his 2024 season before it got off the ground. Between Graveman’s injury and the aforementioned trio of free agent losses, the relief corps suddenly looked alarmingly thin behind the late-inning duo of Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu.
Brown initially played coy, saying the Graveman injury wouldn’t add any urgency to bring in relief help. Yet it clearly concerned both the front office and ownership, who signed off on a surprising strike at the top of the market. Within three days of announcing the Graveman news, the Astros inked Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM pact. It’s the second-largest guarantee to a reliever in MLB history and the highest in terms of net present value after accounting for deferrals in Edwin Díaz’s $102MM deal with the Mets.
It was a completely out of character splurge for the organization. While owner Jim Crane has approved player payrolls in the upper third of the league, the organization has been averse to long-term free agent commitments. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Hader deal was the first time the Astros stretched to five years on a free agent since Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. They’d only even gone to four years once before on the $52MM Josh Reddick pact. It was also the first time that Houston signed a player who had declined a qualifying offer.
Crane and Brown considered it worthwhile to deviate from typical procedure to add arguably the sport’s best reliever while the team’s path to a title remains clear. The five-time All-Star is coming off a 1.28 ERA showing while striking out almost 37% of batters faced for the Padres. Houston gave up their second-round pick and $500K in international signing bonus space to install him in the ninth inning. That bumps Pressly into setup work, where he’ll pair with Abreu in what should be an electric back of the bullpen.
Strong as that final trio is, the middle relief group does look like a relative weak point. The Hader signing meant the Astros eschewed a volume approach to addressing the middle innings. They claimed Oliver Ortega off waivers and took a flier on Dylan Coleman in a minor trade with the Royals. Beyond that, they’re counting on Rafael Montero to rebound from a poor season and hoping for steps forward from an internal option like Brandon Bielak or Seth Martinez. Brown acknowledged over the weekend the team is still looking to add middle relief help. That’d need to come via trade, waivers or potentially a minor league free agent pickup at this point.
As far as weaknesses go, middle relief is one of the easier problems to navigate. The Astros don’t have much concern throughout the rest of the roster. Caratini and first baseman Trey Cabbage, acquired from the Angels after a DFA, were the only position player pickups of the winter. Caratini and Díaz make for a strong catching tandem. José Abreu had a disappointing first year in Houston, but he perhaps found his power stroke in the final few weeks of the season. They’ll give him another shot at first base. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman round out an excellent infield.
Brantley’s departure puts a little more pressure on the in-house outfielders. Kyle Tucker should provide star production in right field. Chas McCormick has been an above-average regular and should get the bulk of playing time in left field. The Astros will turn center field to defensive stalwart Jake Meyers. McCormick can handle center on days when Yordan Alvarez trots out to left field. Mauricio Dubón remains on hand as a multi-positional option off the bench.
There wasn’t much turnover in the position player group. That could change next offseason, as Bregman is on track to hit free agency. That even led to speculation that the Astros could preemptively dangle him in trade talks this winter, although the organization quickly shot down that idea. Brown and Crane each said the team will make an extension offer to Bregman at some point, but that won’t be cheap. His camp could set out in search of a deal exceeding $200MM. The same is true for Tucker, who is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season.
Like Bregman, Altuve had been on track to hit free agency at the end of the upcoming season. It was difficult to envision the franchise stalwart donning any other uniform. The Astros and his camp all but ensured that won’t happen. They locked in a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2025-29 seasons. That runs through Altuve’s age-39 campaign, ensuring he’ll be the franchise second baseman through the end of this competitive cycle. Altuve’s defensive grades are declining, but he remains the sport’s best offensive second baseman. Keeping him in the leadoff spot maximizes their chances of staying atop the AL West in the middle third of the decade.
The extension discussion isn’t limited to the position player side. Framber Valdez is down to his final two seasons of arbitration control. He won’t hit free agency until age 32, so he doesn’t have the same earning power as Tucker or Bregman do. Yet he’s deep enough into arbitration that he’d surely cost more than the $64MM which Houston guaranteed Cristian Javier last spring. A Valdez deal would likely go into nine figures. He and the Astros haven’t found an agreeable price point yet. As with Bregman, this led to some early-offseason trade speculation that never seemed to get far.
For now, Valdez slots back in as Houston’s top starter. That might’ve been true even if Justin Verlander were healthy, but the latter will begin the season on the injured list as he cautiously builds up after experiencing shoulder soreness early in camp. Javier, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown will follow Valdez in the season-opening rotation. J.P. France will get the nod as the #5 starter so long as he’s fully recovered from a minor shoulder issue of his own. If France does need to miss time, Bielak, Ronel Blanco or prospect Spencer Arrighetti could find themselves in the mix.
It’s a thinner rotation than the ones which the Astros have rolled out in previous years. That could be a concern around the deadline, but Brown has stated a few times it’s not something they feel compelled to address before Opening Day. Verlander’s IL stay isn’t expected to be too long. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia could each be back from arm surgeries in the middle of the season. The front office should have a clearer idea in the summer of the extent to which they can rely on McCullers and Garcia down the stretch.
The gap in the AL West isn’t as wide as it once was. The Rangers and Mariners both pushed last year’s division race into the final weekend of the regular season. Texas got the last laugh in October. Still, the Astros have taken the AL West crown in six of the last seven seasons (all aside from the shortened 2020 schedule). They’ve gotten as far as the ALCS every year since 2017. This probably won’t be the best Astro team of the last few years, but there’s certainly enough talent to put them in the conversation at the top of the American League yet again.
I gave them a B even though it was really a C for the Stros. The bar has been set so low this offseason – look who’s left to sign just days before the season begins – that I gave them a B.
Armchair GMs unite
They just need to sign Trevor Bauer and turn their off season into an A grade. /Sarc.
If any organization is going to sign him it’s probably them.
He will first have to issue an apology for all the crap he threw at them on social media. Even being stupid enough to implicate the owner I a the sign acquisition effort that all present teams and all teams on baseball history are engaged in. As most people have discovered, directly antagonizing potential employers may not necessarily the best path to a job. In any event, not having any knowledge of Bauer true character. Who cares at this point …. I do think that it matters if he may be the so called club house cancer. If that’s true than why hire the guy. Especially for a team that has 7 postseason appearances of recent vintage. A rational assessment says don’t risk it.
The dude pitched a few days ago for a Japanese tryout team against Dodgers minor league players. He was asking fans to call his pitches. Pretty self-aggrandizing to show up everyone playing on the field. The Athletics also reported that no scouts were present.
Spend 30 second listening to him speak and it’s clear he’s a head case. The only people who want him signed are fans willing to ignore this so their team benefits. But for once, it seems like baseball teams are opposing signing a despicable clubhouse cancer. Why? Cancer spreads. Just ask the Cleveland Guardians.
The stupidity on this site is growing at an exponentialy, alarming rate everyday. Now listen carefully, Bauer is never setting foot on a MLB mound again…EVER!! Ahahaha!
Solid contender.
It’s going to be a three-way team battle for first place in the AL West, just like 2023.
With the injuries, I feel like the team has taken a step backwards
I gave a B probably due to Hader. As for rest of team players like Meyers still with team amazes me. Dana likes his defense. And also thinks he will blast off after time from his injury back in 21. Jon Singleton is another wonder as he is doing nothing but grounding or striking out. Abreu I question with age and knee issue although they blowing it off. Bregman a contract year. Will he live up to it. Starting rotation will they rebound. But Dana and Espada said keep all the players. Rotation too. What will McCullers have come July or August. Rumor was he was making some changes. Garcia as well after TJ. Rangers lost out on Cease and Yankees too. Yankees looking at Lorenzen. Will anyone look at Snell or Montgomery. Dana is looking for bullpen. But this off season for me really deserves a C.
How is Jon Singleton anywhere near a major league job at this point?
I know this won’t be popular, but I give them a D. I think the Hader contract is a landmine and I think it’s part of a larger trend away from what made them great. This run won’t be sustainable unless they continue to discover and develop young players. They seem to be getting away from that.
Can’t argue with that. The Hader contract will become a burden by year 3 most likely, and it will hamstring them. The Abreu and Montero deals were horrible, and they have another year after this one to haunt them. Dana Brown has yet to make any significant moves to prove he is capable of continually operating a contender.
None of their success is his to claim, so only time will tell.
Maybe.
This.
The Abreu and Montero signings—I felt was the exclamation point of the deviation from the luhnow era.
The Stros have nothing in the farm system and probably lose Bregman & Verlander after this year. Tucker & Valdez are only guaranteed for 2 more. I believe the Stros run ends in ‘25. They still look like a playoff team next season.
Which means they probably won’t recoup a ton of value if they decide to deal Valdez & Tucker as rentals. Great run though.
@BrianStrowman people think I’m crazy for suggesting they trade Bregman, Tucker, Verlander, and Valdez to recoup a haul of high prospects. They can then resign Bregman in the offseason if they choose. They have to make drastic moves to prevent the organization from quickly falling out of contention.
I don’t think they can do that right now. You just signed Altuve & Hader. This team could easily win the ALW this year. I wouldn’t count them out of 1 more WS appearance.
It’s just that a reset is coming. I think it’s inevitable and almost unavoidable. Not having a real pipeline is going to catch up. Even if Dana Brown crushes the next 2 drafts and IFA signing periods—-those guys would take time to come up. They just dealt Gilbert away and punted their 1st round pick for Hader.
They definitely pushed their chips in.
The Astros are in win now mode.
Yes, people think you’re crazy… and with good reason. This team has as good a shot at winning the WS as any other. And you would blow it up for a handful of prospects, who more than likely won’t pan out in the future? (Only about 7% of prospects included in trades actually become MLB impact players.)
And now it looks like they’re willing to go after Snell too. I guess they really are going all in this year.
Everyone mentioned the limited signings, but the subtractions of HOF manager and well respected pitch caller could cut deep IMO. I’m a fan of the Altuve extension, and hope something similar for Bregman over a massive payday for Tucker.
Baker leaving is why I gave them a C and not a D. At this stage, Baker is a terrible manager and he cost them games, and the ALCS last year. He mismanages pitching staffs (and always has), but the last 2 years he also mismanaged the lineups.
I gave an A. They did not have many necessary upgrades, but they signed a generational talent in Hader. As volatile as relievers are, he’s on a HOF pace. I hope he’s continues to dominate, because it’s awesome to watch.
I wish they claimed JD Davis and moved in from Singleton. Davis is likely an upgrade over Jose Abreu at this point and he could have spelled Bregman a little.
They can sign JD for less tomorrow if they want.
I doubt it though. He doesn’t really profile as a platoon partner for Abreu. I don’t think they’re ready to punt on that decision yet either.
I still don’t understand why they aren’t spending the offseason and ST getting Yordan trained to play 1B. He will continually get hurt playing LF with his knees, and Abreu is just not a very good defensive 1B either. For now, make Abreu the DH until you can mitigate the loss from his awful contract.
C
D. Why extend buzzer boy after a great season? Maybe he has a lesser season and can be had cheaper. He probably wants to be a lifetime trashtro. Other teams would accept him and root for him but it wouldn’t be an exciting ticket selling move. We got the face of another franchise who is a cheater.
Huh?
Astros Derangement Syndrome. BWAAHAAHAAHAA! Keep raging, clown show.
Huh?
The question that matters is whether they are better than the Rangers and Mariners. The Rangers aren’t going to have very good pitching, but I do think the Mariners will be a very good all-around team, the question about them is whether they have the offense.
Another big question is whether the 2 and 3 teams in the AL West are better than the 2 and 3 teams in the AL East, and that, friends and neighbors, is a big question.
Randos advocating for signing Bauer should be instabanned here. That one measure would clean up the comments sections quite a bit.
Spoken like a true liberal. If you don’t agree with what someone thinks, they should be cancelled.
Bauer shouldn’t be signed because his attitude stinks and bad PR would follow.
“Strong as that final trio is” isn’t proper English. “As” at the start of the sentence isn’t optional. If you’re being paid to write, use correct grammar, for crying out loud.