The Cardinals are looking to prove that last year was a fluke. They bolstered their pitching staff to help them bounce back in 2024, but did they do enough?
Major League Signings
- RHP Sonny Gray: Three years, $75MM (including buyout of 2027 club option)
- RHP Kyle Gibson: One year, $13MM (including buyout of 2025 club option)
- RHP Lance Lynn: One year, $11MM (including buyout of 2025 club option)
- RHP Keynan Middleton: One year, $6MM (including buyout of 2025 club option)
- SS Brandon Crawford: One year, $2MM
- 1B/DH Matt Carpenter: One-year, prorated league minimum (Braves paying remainder of his 2024 salary)
2024 spending: $42MM
Total spending: $107MM
Option Decisions
- None
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Riley O’Brien from Mariners
- Claimed IF/OF Jared Young off waivers from Cubs
- Traded OF Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox for RHPs Nick Robertson and Victor Santos
- Traded OF Richie Palacios to Rays for RHP Andrew Kittredge
- Claimed 1B/OF Alfonso Rivas off waivers from Angels
- Traded RHP Guillermo Zuñiga to Angels for cash considerations
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Signed IF/OF Tommy Edman to a two-year deal to avoid arbitration
Notable Losses
- Dakota Hudson (non-tendered), Andrew Knizner (non-tendered), Jake Woodford (non-tendered), Juan Yepez (non-tendered), James Naile (released to sign in KBO), Guillermo Zuñiga, Buddy Kennedy
It’s very rare for the Cardinals to go into an offseason on the heels of a massive disappointment. In this millennium, they have missed the playoffs eight times and only twice finished below .500. Last year was one of those two, as they went 71-91 and finished fifth in the National League Central for the first time ever.
The rotation was a clear target area for change, as the club’s starters posted a collective 5.08 earned run average last year, a mark better than just four other clubs. Three spots were opened by last year’s trades of impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as well as the retirement of Adam Wainwright.
There were rumors that the club may use its position player surplus to swing a trade that would upgrade the rotation, but they instead jumped in the free agent market early. By the end of November, they had already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.
Whether that was the best way to go about upgrading the rotation is a matter of debate, especially with the club having also been connected to exciting names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow at times this winter. Lynn will turn 37 years old this year and is coming off a rough campaign in 2023. He posted a 5.73 ERA between the White Sox and Dodgers while allowing 44 home runs, plus another four long balls in his one postseason start. Gibson has been a fairly reliable innings eater but doesn’t have much upside at this point in his career. He’s now 36 and finished each of the past two seasons with an ERA near 5.00.
Gray is the most exciting of their pickups, as he just finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting after a 2.79 ERA season with the Twins. But there’s some downside risk with Gray as well, as the Cards may have made a proverbial buy-high move. Gray’s 184 innings in 2023 were his highest tally since 2015, as he has had various injuries to deal with over the years. He’s now 34 years old and already going into 2024 with a health concern, battling a hamstring strain that’s left him questionable for Opening Day.
Some fans wanted the club to continue adding to the rotation, especially with Steven Matz having struggled so much since signing a four-year deal in St. Louis. The club’s interest in Cease reportedly lingered even after making those three signings, but nothing came together. That leaves Matz still a part of the projected rotation, especially with Gray’s injury, and the Cards hoping for a bounce back.
The much-discussed position player surplus didn’t end up factoring into the rotation, but it did affect the pitching staff in other ways. There was rumored interest in players like Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson, but the Cards instead flipped Tyler O’Neill as their biggest trade this winter. O’Neill, who is an impending free agent and previously clashed with manager Oliver Marmol, was flipped to Boston for Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Robertson should be able to help the club’s bullpen right away, as he already has 22 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Santos adds some non-roster depth for the rotation, but he missed all of 2023 due to injury and has fewer than 45 Triple-A innings on his ledger.
The club made another move that sent out a position player for a reliever, as Richie Palacios was flipped to the Rays and Andrew Kittredge. It may have been underwhelming for some fans as Kittredge is turning 34, missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and is a mere rental. But Kittredge was utterly dominant in 2021 and the Cards had just grabbed Palacios off the DFA pile in June.
The bullpen was padded in other ways, as Middleton was brought aboard on a one-year, $6MM deal in free agency after a resurgent showing in 2023. The Cards also grabbed Riley O’Brien in a small trade and selected Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft.
On the position player side of things, very little has changed from last year, apart from those moves. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will still be the anchors at the infield corners. The big question is the shortstop position, as the Paul DeJong era is now over. The club is hoping top prospect Masyn Winn is the shortstop of the future, but he’s just about to turn 22 years old and hit only .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, since his .196 batting average on balls in play in that time was well below league average. He also posted a solid slash line of .288/.359/.474 in Triple-A last year.
The club has plenty of faith that he can post better results in a larger sample of work, but they also added a bit of insurance. Long-time Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford was signed to a modest one-year deal, though Crawford and the club’s decision makers made it clear that Winn is the starter. Crawford is merely around to offer guidance from his years of experience, and to serve as a safety net in the event of an injury or perhaps Winn not securing the job as hoped.
Winn’s emergence pushed Tommy Edman to center field, which is partially what caused such a logjam on the grass and led to the O’Neill and Palacios trades. On paper, Edman was going to be in center, flanked by Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, with Carlson, Burleson and Donovan also in the mix for playing time. Those plans are currently on hold, as both Edman and Nootbaar are questionable for Opening Day due to injuries, though that will hopefully just be a short-term situation.
The club also hopes to have bolstered its bench by bringing in old friend Matt Carpenter. His 2022 renaissance didn’t continue into 2023, so San Diego traded him to Atlanta in a salary-dumping deal. Atlanta took on Carpenter’s salary to get lefty Ray Kerr, then promptly released Carpenter. That freed him up to return to St. Louis, with the Cards only having to pay the prorated league minimum for any time he’s on the roster. If he can have yet another renaissance, they will have found lightning in a bottle. If not, they can move on without really having lost much of anything beyond the opportunity cost.
Though the club is making an earnest effort to return to contention in 2024, they also did little to commit themselves beyond this year. Other than Gray, all of their signings were one-year deals. They have some interest in extending Paul Goldschmidt, though president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said they may kick those talks into the season until they see how things are going.
“I think right now, I think everybody just wants to see how this season starts. You know, obviously, we want to get off on the right track, and then we can address things like that,” Mozeliak said.
Goldschmidt is an impending free agent and will turn 37 during the upcoming season. The club obviously likes to keep franchise legends around, with Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Wainwright all running out the clock in St. Louis in recent years. But with Goldschmidt, perhaps the club wants to wait and see if their planned bounceback season actually comes to fruition before they start committing future dollars. If they fall back again, Goldschmidt could be one of the best rental bats available at the summer deadline. They may want to keep that door open.
What also may be an issue is the club’s TV revenue uncertainty. The Cards are one of the clubs who is under contract with Diamond Sports Group, who once seemed like they were going to cease operations after 2024. The company has managed to stay afloat for now by selling some streaming rights to Amazon, but it’s still unclear how viable their long-term plan is. The Cards get over $70MM per year from Diamond and may want closure on that situation before making big decisions about the future.
In the end, it amounts to a half-in, half-out offseason. They made one splashy move by signing Gray but otherwise kept various long-term paths open. Are they good enough to compete this year? How much TV money is coming in? Will they keep Goldschmidt around or pivot to a post-Goldy era?
There’s a lot that needs to be revealed this year, but for now, the club patched their biggest holes. That may be enough in the NL Central, where there’s no clear frontrunner and it’s arguable that each of the five teams are in position to potentially surge ahead. Though the signings of Lynn and Gibson weren’t as sexy as getting someone like Cease or Yamamoto, both FanGraphs and PECOTA think the Cards are now the best team in the division, so maybe a couple of floor-raising moves and some bouncebacks will be enough to take the Central in the end.
They’re good enough to rebound and win the central. They’re not going to roll over like last season. That was embarrassing.
Agreed. Offseason would look so much better with Gray and Monty leading the rotation as opposed to Gray, Lynn, and Gibson. They could’ve signed Stanek and kept Palacios too. I think they’ll be fine, but this team is nowhere near as good as they could be.
Agree that the mistake was 2 back end starters instead of Montgomery. The team has back end depth now Liberatore and Thompson won’t get a shot to make the rotation until someone gets hurt.
The ONeill trade return was almost nothing that sucked.
Palacios I don’t think is any good I think he’s basically Mercado who we probably should have kept. Siani can also fill that role.
My guess is this is a 500 team and Marmol is fired by July.
The advantage of Palacios over Mercado is Palacios is a LH hitter. That’s important because Tommy and Carlson both hit much better from the right side.
Well we got Carpenter for a lefty hitter. And isn’t Crawford a lefty too? Scott coming soon he’s a lefty. I think lefty hitter isn’t as big of a need as it was last year. I hear you for sure.
I hope Carp isn’t asked to do much hitting. Yes, Crawford is a lefty bat and that does help. Scott might end up making the Palacios debate pointless. But there’s no way Mo anticipated that. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Would much rather have seen the wealth of pitching prospects be available to step up rather than put them behind KG and LL. Also, if the goal is playoff baseball, you need at least two top end pitchers to be competitive in October. The problem is this team probably sees Mikolas as a true #2, which is a threshold he’s only reached or surpassed twice in his career (2018 and 2022). I hope I’m wrong and he pitches like he did in 2022, because this team desperately needs it.
good post the return for TO was insulting and signing Lynn and Gibson was goofy
St. Louis needs a solid #2 starting pitcher!!
The Cardinals front office or whoever is calling the shots—- just aren’t very baseball or business savvy.
Dylan Cease—- the Cards had plenty of extras to obtain him.
Montgomery—- they have the money in their budget for a short term deal. The same with Snell.
Mozeliak’s arrogance and smug baseball ignorance is more than just Frustrating!!
Surely the DeWitt’s will finally see the light as to how bad Mozeliak is waisting their money on multiple second hand players.
He could use that same money on one Star pitcher instead of 2 hopefuls.
Honestly I’d even be happy with a deal for Clevinger.
They did nothing, they got nothing, they’ll do nothing. Gray, Gibson & Lynn, Ahahaha!
Gray is good
Hate the Palacios trade. Looks even worse now that Noot is hurt. I’m glad to have Kittredge, but they could’ve found an adjacent upgrade without shipping out Palacios. Hopefully Carlson is healthy and hits better than he has in a few years.
Why? Palacios is a 27 year old career minor leaguer with one month of quality MLB play
Because it remains to be seen if Walker can actually play the outfield, and Dylan Carlson is injury prone. I’d rather have Palacios’ glove out there than Burleson’s.
Btw, my concerns will be alleviated if VSII makes the club and is able to be a productive CF for the club out of Spring Training.
Best case scenario right now is Carlson/Burleson in LF, VSII in CF, and Walker in RF.
VSII will not and should not make the opening day roster. He’s barely played in AA. The bat has a lot of development to do. Cardinals need to stop rushing prospects
He’s still getting a lot of PT. Whether they should or not is besides the point, the fact is they are considering whether he is ready right now.
This year I am completely mentally prepared for mediocrity. Last year was rough, but now I’m ready.
Mo is playing out the string on his contract and doesn’t want to do any heavy lifting from now until then. Now that I know what to expect, I can work at controlling my emotions. Come on 2026!
You don’t think ownership will bring back Mo? Who will succeed Mo? I’m guessing Marmol is gone with Mo too. I don’t think they’ll be as bad as last year, last year was just terrible for you guys…
I don’t think Mo wants to come back. He knows there’s no one left to blame. That’s not a good situation for him.
That’s rather lame of him I didn’t think he had gotten as bad as he has as of late. Was he behind Walt Jocketty being fired? I don’t remember everything about what transpired in that time. Well, hopefully you guys get a better GM after Mo leaves.
Mozeliak and LaRussa didn’t get along. And because of that Mozeliak has not wanted to hire a manager with experience he’s worried something similar will happen again. Thankfully Flores and him get along Flores has done a great job and might replace Mozeliak or Grisch. What does Grisch do? Nobody knows…….
Maybe not overtly. But he definitely has a pattern of riding the coattails of more talented people and then finding ways to push those people out of the organization.
Jocketty refused to embrace analytics. He and Jeff Luhnow clashed quite a bit.
Mozeliaks biggest problem is the inability to hire a manager with experience. And that’s a major major problem. I think Mozeliak has done a lot of good things but if you can’t hire competent people to work under you without feeling threatened then you need to go.
That’s intentional, Joel. That way he can control the inexperienced manager. That’s been obvious since the end of 2011.
Yes and that’s a problem. Tell Beth I said hi.
dexter fowler was not one of them
I’m still trying to figure out why we have Marmol and not Shildt…
Already announced gone after current contract expires… End of 2025. If STL fails in 2024, be replaced sooner. Guy in place is Bloom, old GM from Boston. Odds on favorite as replacement.
Chaim Bloom, for sure
Yeah I hear you. Haven’t been this unexcited about the team in maybe 20 years. Mo and Marmol both need to go.
Not really Mo’s fault. It’s ownership for not wanting to spend more. They’re more scared of the Bally thing than they need to be imo
I’m sure you’d be fine losing $70MM in receipts.
Their TV ratings are consistently near the top. I doubt they’ll have a very hard time replicating or even improving on their deal with Bally
I more interested in the results of this poll on around September 15, 2024. I’m guessing the redbirds elderly roster will be ravaged by injuries this season.
I think Gibson will pitch ok (low- 4’s ERA) but I’m worried Lynn and Mikolas are cooked. We’ll see. This team basically needs Gray to be healthy and Matz to throw 150 innings with an ERA in the high 3.00’s. That would keep them in the hunt and maybe they would swing a trade to boost the rotation after that.
It could be argued that there’s nothing notable about the “notable losses.”
Don’t kid yourself. History tells us that the Cardinals are going to regret cutting ties with at least a couple of those guys.
Honestly there’s a chance Tyler O’Neill takes off with the Red Sox. I think he just needed a change of scenery.
Maybe so, but a change of scenery isn’t going to cause him to stay healthy. I do wish the best for him though.
ST.LOUIS SUCKS!!!!!
Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams and Clayton Kershaw walk into a Bar. The Bartender says “Jack Clark, Ozzie Smith, 1985…. “
Outstanding insight.
Literally the only reason they don’t deserve an F is because the 3 SPs they added could all throw a good number of innings compared to your average MLB starters. They’re going to be mostly below average innings for a below average rotation on a below average team who’s only hope of competing is in a bad NL central. But they needed innings and they added a bunch (of bad ones).
They got in to early in free agency. They should have let the market play itself out. If they would have, they could have had a completely different offseason and a much better one.
Gray is good. Gibson isn’t “bad,” more mediocre. Lynn is a wildcard
Gibson’s era has been around 5 for the last few years and he’s not getting younger.
Average of 4.5 ERA over the last three seaons isn’t really close to 5. Plus, he was pitching in extreme hitter’s parks
When you throw batting practice, you get pulled quickly. Going to be a lot of lopsided games if they pitch innings.
The 3 new pitching additions are all referred to as “inning eaters”. Which means a lot of mileage on those arms these past few years. I’ll be surprised if Gibson, Lynn, or Gray make more than 20 starts this year. The Cardinals best players are all on the decline and a few years from retirement. I’ll be surprised if they win 70 games this year.
Enjoy your fantasy
Imo the Cardinals had one of the worst off seasons in baseball. Gray was an excellent signing but the rest of the rotation is brutal. Amazing they are satisfied going into the season with that group.
Seems to me that they are starving for one more arm. I don’t know if that’s because I see Lynn as done and will DFA’d sometime in the season or I just feel after Gray, they have a bunch of 4-5’s. Hard to hope against reason in Matz finally being what he was. Maybe Goldy can have another “one moment in time season” and bring a surprising MVP year to buoy the offense to offset the meh rotation.
Still, I’ve learned to never call the Cards out of it. I can see them being in the Central race into Sept. Rooting to see St Louis rebound from a disappointing 2023.
No doubt their pitching is questionable, but their offense may be better than people believe. Speed, power, and good OBP could produce plenty of runs, cause they may need it.
I like Gray and most of the bullpen additions. They needed to sign at least one more starter that is middle of the road or better
My real concern about the pitching staff is I don’t know what to expect from the defense. If we are going to treat this season as a development period for Walker, then we should also treat it as a development year for Ivan Herrera. He should be the primary catcher all season because he is the future and then we would at least have some idea what the future looks like.
My ideal arrangement would be giving Herrera three starting pitchers and Contreras two. They play catcher anytime one of their pitchers is starting. I would give Herrera Gray, Matz, and Gibson. Contreras gets Mikolas and Lynn.
That should give Herrera enough playing time to get comfortable without getting too worn down. It might even make Contreras a better receiver if he only has to focus on two starting pitchers. It also allows Contreras to get plenty of time at DH and hopefully he can carry over the production he put up in last year’s second half.
The fact they brought back Matt Carpenter tells you this organization is more worried about the feel-good moment rather than winning. 3rd place finish at best..
Cardinals are getting old even AARP now a sponsor of those reaching first base on a walk
Based on all the info I’ve read regarding the Cardinals view of the Bally Sports fiasco, it seems clear ownership wasn’t going to let Mo spend a lot, and definitely wanted him to avoid 5+ year deals. I think Mo did fine given the budget he had to work with. I wish he didn’t sign Carpenter, and I would have preferred not signing one of Gibson/Lynn and going for a mid-tier target like K-Rod or Stroman. I do think his handling of the bullpen was excellent
I’d give Mo a B/B- but the organization as a whole a C-/D+
I gave them a B. It’s a weak B, but they identified their needs and got their shopping done early, even before the Dodgers. Could they have been more ambitious? Maybe, but with how many teams went really light on spending and are still missing pieces, I think they did an above-average job. The grading curve is pretty low this year.
I really don’t see how putting this team together Mo really thought this was a playoff caliber team.. What was one of the main weaknesses from last season? Starting rotation.
Sonny Gray was the best addition by far, but weak hitting with risp was a big weakness as well.
Burleson needs to play every day imo. He is going to be one of the team’s most consistent hitters if he can get enough playing time.
This team has a lot of talent and seems they cannot put it all together consistently, and that falls on the manager and on Mo.
Having a different lineup every day only makes them even more inconsistent imo.
I get your point, but who do you play? Many choices is a good thing, but you have only eight spots. Scott, Winn, Walker, Burleson, Carlson, Edman, Donovan, Gorman, Herrera, Contreras, Arenado, Goldschmit a d Nootbar. With Carpenter and Crawford as bench guys and Saggese knocking on the door. Some days the line-up is going to be different.
Old team doubles down on old age. I don’t get it but whatever. I like the Gray signing but meh on the other two starters. Team always has potential but they always end up having hitters who are good for a year or two then fade away.
Solid 74 win team
The over is 84 so place your bet
The Tigers should have traded for Elly. The guy is awesome. They should have tried. We have pitching. What we don’t have is an innovative management team.
Harris is probably more suited to work at a bakery, playing with cookie cutters that someone else designs…….
Although I have to admit that’s a lot of SO’s…..
I voted F. It doesn’t matter who’s on the field with their current manager.
Let’s bring back Matheny!
Oh good lord. You don’t even know why you hate Oli
The Cardinals act like they are a bottom tier team. Very rarely make a big free agent signing, and it shows. A pitching staff of late 30’s guys, who give up way too many homers. No quality closer, and many of the same Nootbar type player.
They, quite literally, just made a big free agent signing for their pitching staff this year. Sure, it would have been nice to make two big free agent pitching acquisitions and of course the team would be better. I’m still not sure why they went Gibson & Lynn instead of someone like Montgomery but for him I suspect it was the $$$ and years that Montgomery asked for (and still hasn’t gotten). Would it be better to be rolling I to spring with Gray, Mikolas, Matz and the kids? Because Montgomery still isn’t signed. The league in totale has agreed he is asking too much. Hard to fault the Cardinals for going a different route.
Other options exist but given the budget constraints imposed by ownership, I think the FO did ok. B-
I thought Sonny Gray the best free agent pitcher. I don’t want my team dealing with Scott Boras.
No quality closer? Helsley’s been one of the best relievers in baseball over the last couple seasons
F in the chat.
Nothing about this team is an improvement from last year. Gray is Montgomery and thus a lateral move. Everything else is the same or worse.