Right-hander Brad Keller has elected free agency after going unclaimed on outright waivers, tweets Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. The White Sox had designated him for assignment on Sunday.
Keller signed a minor league pact with Chicago about halfway into Spring Training. He made three starts for their Triple-A team before being called up in late April. He started two of five appearances at the major league level, pitching to a 4.86 ERA through 16 2/3 innings. Three of Keller’s first four outings were solid, but he gave up four homers in as many innings against the Yankees on Saturday. The Sox decided to go in a different direction, eventually recalling rookie right-hander Nick Nastrini to take the rotation spot.
The 28-year-old Keller has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons. All of that time has been spent in the AL Central. The Royals plucked him out of the Arizona farm system as a Rule 5 pick back in 2017. Keller turned out to be one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent history. He posted a 3.08 ERA as a rookie and turned in 28 starts of 4.19 ERA ball during his second season. His results have fallen off following a strong showing in the abbreviated 2020 season.
Keller allowed more than five earned runs per nine in both 2021 and ’22. He was carrying a 4.57 mark with 14 more walks than strikeouts through 45 1/3 innings last year when he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Kansas City let him walk in free agency last winter.
Teams seeking rotation depth could offer Keller a minor league deal. While his recent production hasn’t been great, he’s still adept at keeping the ball on the ground. He racked up grounders at a 56.1% clip during his brief run with the Sox. He has only had one season where opponents got the ball in the air more than half the time they put it in play against him.
He’ll be a Brewer by Sunday
How did that Nastrini start go for the White Sox?
If we take out the fluky 2020 year and grant that he had a solid 2018 debut, he has otherwise been quite bad, somehow accumulating about 10 WAR. What do I not see that WAR does see? Legit question, not being a smart@$$.
There is value in 130-170 IP per season, esp with the way starting pitchers drop like flies.
In his first three years, Keller was a well above average pitcher, with an ERA+ of 130. Since then, he’s been about 15% worse than average. Overall, slightly above average.
Before his thoracic syndrome, his combination of IP and above average effectiveness made him quite valuable.
Nearly every team could use a #4 SP like the healthy Keller.
I dont know what the possibilities of fully recovering from thoracic syndrome are, but I imagine that there are teams that will look at him as a worthwhile acquisition on the cheap. Hes only 28 yrs old.
I guess I could see how he could accumulate about 9 WAR over those 3 seasons. I guess I thought the bad performances would’ve brought it down more but it’s not a ton of innings. A tad misleading for some about the 130era+ over 3 years. It was a good year, a #4 starter year, and a great 9 starts.
I understand what you are saying, but I think you are underestimating the value of 165 IP of above average pitching.
Every season starts with 150 rotational spots. In 2019 Keller put up the 45th highest fWAR…he was in the top third of those 150 rotational spots. For that one season, he was a lot more than a #4.
Every team would love to have a SP give them 165 IP of above average pitchibg.
One problem is I was forgetting 2019 was the juiced ball year, with the twins hitting the most HR ever by a team. I guess I weighed his ups and downs wrong. He does have decent career numbers. I always thought pitchers WAR was odd. Mike Minor led the league with like 8.5 WAR one year but he didn’t seem to be the most valuable starter. I see Gaylord Perry or someone throw 300 innings and have like 3 WAR. Different eras aside, it’s puzzled me. I just wouldn’t think less than 400 innings of 4.20ish era were valuable enough for that but I can see why I’d be wrong.
Your post was helpful in understanding the pitcher. There’s a gap in my baseball knowledge (somewhat) of about 2-3 years coinciding with when he was coming up pitching great.
Keller and Zack Davies will probably be brewers by next week
Someones gotta give this guy another chance
He’s only about 16% worse than league average. Tells us a lot about the low quality of pitching in MLB nowadays.
I miss the days of Maddux getting strikes on 12-inches off the plate. Those were the days…
He would be a better risk for Brewers than Zack Davies!
Seems Rockies would be a good fit, ground ball pitcher! But what do I know
Dodgers.
Welcome to the Braves!
Atkins and the Jays tried to acquire him a while ago when he was good. I bet they circle around to acquiring him for a reliever project. Keller is better than Atkins normal dumpster diving.