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The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

By Darragh McDonald | June 14, 2024 at 5:05pm CDT

Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

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Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals Cade Smith Emmanuel Clase Hunter Gaddis Nick Sandlin Pedro Avila Sam Hentges Scott Barlow Tim Herrin

Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Orioles Among Teams Interested In Tanner Scott
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Angels Reinstate, Option Sam Bachman
View Comments (24)
Post a Comment

24 Comments

  1. Samuel

    12 months ago

    Nothing is better for any MLB organization than developing their own players, or taking players that have failed with other teams and making them productive.

    The teams that succeed each year do that.

    MLB is not Rotisserie League where the object is to find players that “get hot”. Coaching staffs matter.

    2
    Reply
  2. ellisd19830

    12 months ago

    Nothing on Walters?

    1
    Reply
    • Michael Chaney

      12 months ago

      Yeah it was probably worth mentioning that Walters was an early draft pick last year that could help the bullpen soon, plus they also have Enright and Aleman in Columbus. Gose is back this year and pitching well there too.

      1
      Reply
      • ClevelandSpidersFromMars

        12 months ago

        Not to mention Mikolajchak.

        Reply
  3. Dennis Boyd

    12 months ago

    This whole article can be summarized as ‘thank you AJ Preller’

    Reply
    • The Ghost of Bobby Bonilla

      12 months ago

      It amazes me how Cleveland perpetually robs San Diego and yet the Pads keep trading with them. Dates all the way back to Corey Kluber. Actually, way back to Sandy Alomar/Robbie Alomar.

      1
      Reply
      • CO Guardening

        12 months ago

        That was Joe Carter for Sandy Alomar, Chris James and Carlos Baerga. Hardly a steal, especially since Carter was flipped for Fred McGriff.

        3
        Reply
  4. Jim M

    12 months ago

    Those numbers are pretty darn impressive

    1
    Reply
  5. The Ghost of Bobby Bonilla

    12 months ago

    I thought Francona was a great manager, but pretty much mailed it in the past couple of seasons. Vogt is the real deal – he might even be better.

    3
    Reply
    • CO Guardening

      12 months ago

      Franconas biggest flaw was he had “his guys.” And he’d stick with them even if it was obvious someone else was better. Vogt’s crew does a really good job with pitch tracking. So even if the appeances are up, to quote Barlow “I’ve never felt more taken care of in my career.”

      5
      Reply
      • Michael Chaney

        12 months ago

        100%. I don’t know if Francona necessarily “mailed it in” as much as I think his health was probably worse than we thought. But it definitely seemed like he was a different manager last year.

        The loyalty to his guys was frustrating though, especially in a season like last year where it felt clear that they weren’t a playoff team even in a historically bad division. Batting Rosario second every day and letting him stay at short when they needed definitive answers on Rocchio and Arias felt irresponsible.

        3
        Reply
        • layventsky

          12 months ago

          Don’t even get me started on Michael Martinez.

          1
          Reply
        • Michael Chaney

          12 months ago

          And to a lesser extent, Sandy Leon

          1
          Reply
        • DiscountGuards

          12 months ago

          please don’t remind us of the name…
          still mind boggling that Michael Martinez was on the World Series roster

          Reply
  6. PaulyMidwest

    12 months ago

    Some amazing numbers. While my team’s bullpen keeps blowing games on a nightly basis. Wish our best pitching mind didn’t leave to go run the BoSox

    Reply
  7. cwsOverhaul

    12 months ago

    Cleveland could use a fearsome upside power bat to get past NYY or Balt in Oct to help Ramirez.
    Fans interested in an Alonso rental…. or Vlad Jr 1.5yrs control if made available?

    1
    Reply
    • Tigers3232

      12 months ago

      Naylor is out slugging both of them with 17 HRs. They’d be foolish to give up a haul of young talent for either.

      SS/C/OF are mich more pressing needs for them offensively.

      Reply
      • cwsOverhaul

        12 months ago

        So far yes-but a 3rd threat with track record helps if mix and match DH. Wouldn’t get caught up in sacrificing D at key spots since major strength. A rental like Alonso (pure example) wouldn’t be a haul and Clev brass probably decent self-scouts at which of their perceived prospect requested may be overloved to get a deal done with somebody.
        Vlad Jr would be steep, but again good FOs know if they have farm depth in certain areas to avoid being too thin looking ahead.

        Reply
        • Tigers3232

          12 months ago

          You think CLE scouts have some advantage on other scouts? Most MLB scouts aren’t going to be so easily deceived.

          CLE doesn’t have the same risk tolerance of large market teams. Trading for a luxury at a position that is not a need especially on players having down years is not something they can risk.

          Reply
        • CO Guardening

          12 months ago

          Tigers3232- I’d point out that Cleveland’s trade track record is about average at best. Gimenez and Naylor were great trade additions but the Bauer trade was a dud, the Straw trade looks awful in hindsight, the Bauers for Yandy Diaz swap wasn’t fun either.
          Personally, I’d like see Jhonkensy Noel and Valera and honest shake.

          1
          Reply
      • Jay2441

        12 months ago

        They should be willing to ride it out wit Roccio at ss.

        Reply
  8. MLBTR needs to hire editors

    12 months ago

    This title doesn’t make sense. The bullpen is good, and then it talks about how this means that Cleveland can make moves elsewhere. So it’s not even really about them.

    Or did these relievers’ agents give MLBTR some dough to make them look good? Seems likely.

    Reply
    • wagner13

      12 months ago

      Jesus dude, get the stick out of your rear end. If you hate this site so much, you’re allowed to spend your time elsewhere and leave the rest of us alone

      1
      Reply
      • MLBTR needs to hire editors

        12 months ago

        Stop stalking me, you creep. I’m free to read and comment however I want. Stop telling me how to use this site. Leave me the hell alone with comments about my rear end, you weirdo.

        There’s a “mute” button for people like you. If you’re so annoyed by me, use it. Because that’s what I’m doing to you, loser.

        Reply

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