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Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West

Chicago Cubs

  • Shota Imanaga, LHP (team has three-year, $57MM option covering 2026-28; if they decline, Imanaga has $15MM player option for 2026)

Imanaga signed a somewhat complex four-year, $53MM deal when he made the jump from NPB during the 2023-24 offseason. Next winter, the Cubs need to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $57MM option for the 2026-28 seasons. That’d come with respective salaries of $20MM, $20MM and $17MM. If the Cubs decline their end, Imanaga would be able to decline a $15MM player option for ’26 and test free agency.

It’d almost certainly take an injury for that to happen. Concerns about how Imanaga’s stuff might translate against MLB competition proved unfounded. The southpaw finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting during his first major league season. He turned in a 2.91 earned run average across 173 1/3 innings, striking out a quarter of opponents against a 4% walk rate. The punchouts haven’t been there through this year’s first five starts, but he takes a 2.22 ERA into tonight’s appearance against the Dodgers. He’s getting whiffs on an excellent 14% of his pitches, so he’ll likely finish off a few more strikeouts moving forward. Imanaga’s deal looks like a bargain, and the Cubs should happily sign up for another three seasons at a $19MM average annual value unless he suffers an injury.

  • Colin Rea, RHP ($6MM club option, $750K buyout)

Rea reunited with Craig Counsell in Chicago after the Brewers declined his $5.5MM club option. It actually worked out slightly to his financial benefit. The righty collected a $1MM buyout from Milwaukee and secured a $5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He’s playing this year on a $4.25MM salary and will make at least a $750K buyout on next year’s club option. That’s valued at $6MM, so it’ll be a $5.25MM decision.

The Cubs had Rea work in long relief to begin the season. He has stepped into the rotation since the Justin Steele injury. The 34-year-old righty is out to a strong start, allowing two runs through his first 13 2/3 innings. He has punched out 12 while only allowing one walk in 56 plate appearances. Rea had held a rotation role in Milwaukee for most of last year, posting a 4.29 ERA through a career-high 167 2/3 innings. As a mid-30s swingman with league average whiff rates, he’s never going to break the bank, but the option price is reasonable for a capable #5/6 starter.

Turner’s option is mostly an accounting measure designed to push back $2MM of his $6MM free agent guarantee by a few months. Option buyouts are paid at year’s end, while the money would have been evenly distributed throughout the season had it simply been a $6MM salary. It’s unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign up for a $10MM salary covering Turner’s age-41 campaign even if he repeats his solid 2024 production.

The 17-year big league veteran has posted 11 consecutive above-average offensive seasons since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. His power numbers have declined with age, but he put up a strong .354 on-base percentage in 139 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners a year ago. Turner’s start on the North Side hasn’t been good. He’s hitting .147 without an extra-base hit over 14 games. He’s taken six walks against nine strikeouts but will obviously need to make more of a slugging impact.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati took a buy-low flier on Barlow, a former closer who was released by the Guardians shortly before the playoffs. The righty had fallen quickly down the depth chart in Cleveland. He carried a 3.52 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. Barlow allowed a near-6.00 ERA while striking out just 19% of batters faced in the second half. A fastball that typically sat around 93 MPH had dropped to the 90-91 range.

The early tenure in Cincinnati has been mixed. Barlow has gotten his velocity back, averaging 93 on both his four-seam and sinker. He’s getting whiffs on a huge 15.3% of his offerings, nearly two percentage points above last year’s level. The stuff is certainly more encouraging, but the results haven’t followed. He has a pedestrian 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing five runs on eight hits through 9 1/3 innings. He was limited to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason. He’ll need a more convincing rebound for Cincinnati to retain him on what amounts to a $5.5MM call.

Hays signed for $5MM after being non-tendered by the Phillies. The righty-hitting outfielder has been a capable regular for most of his career, but his production dipped last season while he battled a grueling kidney infection. A Spring Training calf injury delayed his team debut until last week. Hays has been on tear since his return, connecting on three homers while hitting .406 in 34 plate appearances. He has a hit in all seven games, including three straight multi-hit performances against his old teammates in Baltimore over the weekend.

Suter, who grew up in Cincinnati, joined the Reds on a $3MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He posted a 3.15 ERA through 65 2/3 innings and signed a $2.25MM extension at the start of last winter. The 35-year-old southpaw is out to a customary start. He has managed 9 2/3 frames of three-run ball despite striking out just four of 38 opponents. Suter’s stuff is never going to jump off the page — he’s sitting in his typical 85-88 MPH range with his fastballs — but he avoids hard contact and is aiming for his seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA showing. Assuming he continues on his usual pace, the Reds should want him back on a $2.75MM decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee made a big investment by their standards in signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason. The longtime Phillies first baseman had missed his walk year after suffering an ACL tear during Spring Training. The Brewers expected Hoskins to recapture his consistently above-average offensive form after a healthy offseason.

That didn’t happen in year one, as he hit a career-worst .214/.303/.419 across 517 plate appearances. Hoskins still managed 26 homers, but the overall offense was essentially league average. It wasn’t attributable to lingering knee discomfort. Hoskins did his best work early in the season, carrying an .813 OPS through the end of May. He hit .203/.285/.395 over the season’s final four months and bypassed an opt-out opportunity.

Hoskins has gotten out to another strong start this year. He’s batting .270 with a trio of homers and what would be a career-low 20% strikeout rate over his first 75 trips to the plate.

Milwaukee signed Peralta to a $20MM extension just before Spring Training 2020. He was mostly unproven at the time, but it only took one more season before he developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. This quickly became one of the more team-friendly contracts in baseball. The deal included respective $8MM club options for 2025 and ’26, which would have been Peralta’s first two free agent years had he gone through arbitration.

The 28-year-old righty has been the clear staff ace since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the five guaranteed seasons of the contract. Peralta has rattled off another 28 1/3 frames of 1.91 ERA ball through his first five starts this year. Unless he suffers a significant injury that’d threaten his availability for next season, the Brewers are going to rubber-stamp the option.

Quintana signed late on a $4.25MM pillow contract after finding a weaker market than he expected. The net present value was actually just under $4MM, as Quintana agreed to defer the $2MM buyout on his ’26 mutual option. The Brewers aren’t going to exercise their end of the $15MM option for what would be the veteran lefty’s age-37 season. It looks like they got great value on the one-year deal, though, as Quintana is coming off a 3.75 ERA showing for the Mets. The late signing delayed his team debut, but he has fired 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball over his first two starts.

Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2023 season. The Brewers re-signed him to a backloaded two-year deal with a $17.5MM guarantee. They knew he’d spend all of ’24 rehabbing. They’ve taken his progression carefully and didn’t push him during Spring Training. Woodruff began a minor league rehab stint on April 12. He has made a pair of rehab starts and could be back with the big league team in the next couple weeks.

Note: William Contreras’ arbitration contract contains a $12MM team option for next season. He’s excluded from this list because he’d remain under arbitration control if Milwaukee declines the option, as they did with Devin Williams last offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • None

St. Louis Cardinals

  • None

Reds Sign Scott Barlow

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February 13: The Reds officially announced Barlow’s deal today. Right-hander Julian Aguiar was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. Aguiar had Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season. Per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, Barlow’s deal breaks down as a $1.5MM salary and $1MM buyout on a $6.5MM club option for 2026.

February 11: The Reds and free agent reliever Scott Barlow are in agreement on a one-year, $2.5MM contract, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Warner Sports client’s agreement is still pending the completion of a physical.

Barlow, 32, was brilliant for the Royals from 2021-22, pitching to a combined 2.30 earned run average with a 28.2% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate en route to tallying 40 saves and 20 holds. He’s taken a couple steps back in the two seasons since, providing a still-serviceable 4.32 ERA but diminished velocity and strikeout/walk rates that have trended in the wrong direction.

The Guardians, who had MLB’s best bullpen in 2024, wound up designating Barlow for assignment and releasing him in mid-September. He’d have been postseason-ineligible with a new club at that point and was ticketed to go back into free agency following the season, so he didn’t end up signing with a new club.

Last year’s 91.4 mph average four-seamer with the Guardians was a career-low for Barlow, sitting nearly four miles per hour shy of his average 95.3 mph from 2021. Since Opening Day 2023, he’s fanned 27% of his opponents against a 12% walk rate while suiting up for Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland.

Even with the reduced velocity and worsening command, there are still positives to take away from Barlow’s 2024 season. His 13.5% swinging-strike rate remained comfortably north of the 11.5% league average. He doesn’t induce chases off the plate as much as he did at his peak. His opponents’ contact rate when they do chase is south of 41%, placing him in the top-10 of all 169 qualified big league relievers in that department. His opponents’ 83.9% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is also a couple percentage points shy of average. Barlow’s four-seamer and sinker don’t have the life they used to, but his slider and curveball both miss bats at super premium rates and induce weak contact when opponents do put bat to ball.

Beyond those sharp breaking pitches and their ability to miss bats, Barlow offers a simpler benefit to manager Terry Francona: durability. The right-hander made his big league debut late in 2018 and has never been on the major league injured list. He’s made at least 61 appearances in each of the past five 162-game seasons and pitched in more than half the Royals’ 60 games (32) during the shortened 2020 campaign. Perhaps that heavy workload has contributed to his declining velocity, but Barlow is as durable as it gets for a reliever these days. Since 2019, only Hector Neris has appeared in more games than Barlow’s 359, and no reliever has more innings than Barlow’s 372.

Barlow will slot into a setup role in a reshaped Cincinnati bullpen. Alexis Diaz will reprise his role as closer, but setup man Fernando Cruz was sent to the Yankees in exchange for catcher Jose Trevino. The Reds picked up Taylor Rogers in a late trade with the Giants, too. Newcomers Rogers and Barlow will join holdovers Diaz, Emilio Pagan, Sam Moll, Tony Santillan and Brent Suter. The final couple spots in the ’pen will likely be determined in spring training. Former starters Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers are among the favorites — Spiers likely in swingman role — but the Reds have Yosver Zulueta and Lyon Richardson on the 40-man roster vying for spots as well (if Richardson isn’t in the Triple-A rotation). Non-roster options in camp include Alex Young, Ian Gibaut, Albert Abreu, Joe La Sorsa and Francona favorite (from their days in Cleveland) Bryan Shaw.

Guardians Release Scott Barlow, Outright Anthony Gose

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The Guardians released veteran right-hander Scott Barlow and outrighted lefty Anthony Gose to Triple-A Columbus, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. Cleveland had designated both relievers for assignment in recent days. The Guardians announced that Gose accepted his assignment. He can be selected back to the big league roster whenever the team needs a fresh arm, and Barlow’s release creates an opening to do so rather easily.

Barlow pitched in 63 games for the Guardians this year. Cleveland acquired the right-hander in an offseason swap that sent Enyel De Los Santos to the Padres. It was a rare trade in which the Guardians took on a fairly significant salary — he ultimately settled on a $6.7MM deal for his final year of arbitration — to add the more established player. Barlow had been the Royals’ closer in recent seasons and worked in high-leverage spots with San Diego in the second half of last year.

That track record initially earned him important innings with Cleveland. Barlow had pitched fairly well through the season’s first few months. A tough second half had increasingly pushed him down the leverage hierarchy for skipper Stephen Vogt, however. Barlow has allowed nearly six earned runs per nine with a diminished 18.9% strikeout rate since the All-Star Break. He had fanned more than 32% of batters faced with a 3.52 ERA in 38 1/3 innings during the season’s first half.

Barlow’s overall numbers are passable. He has a 4.25 ERA with an above-average 28.2% strikeout percentage and a grounder rate above 47%. His 12.9% walk rate is high but not dramatically above last season’s 11.4% mark. The late-season dip in performance was concerning, though, and that’s especially true considering Barlow’s velocity. He had averaged 95 MPH on his fastball and 84-85 on his slider during his best seasons with Kansas City. Those respective marks dipped to 93 and 83 last year and are down further this season. Barlow’s slider has checked in around 81 MPH all year. His fastball had dipped to the 90-91 range in the last couple months.

The Guardians remain on the hook for the final few weeks of Barlow’s salary. He surpassed six years of major league service this season and would have been a free agent during the upcoming offseason in any case. Barlow could try to sign with another contender for the final couple weeks of the regular season, but he would not be eligible for postseason play. He may choose to look ahead to next offseason. Barlow could still find a big league deal going into 2025, though he’s unlikely to land the multi-year contract that seemed it’d be on the table a couple months ago.

As for Gose, an outright was the expected outcome after Cleveland designated him for assignment for the fourth time in the last month. The southpaw had the right to elect free agency but is clearly comfortable with the organization, as he either accepted an outright or re-signed on a minor league deal shortly after each of his previous DFAs. Gose has made three MLB appearances this season, allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings. He carries a 3.27 ERA with huge strikeout (32.8%) and walk (14.7%) rates over 41 1/3 frames with Columbus.

Guardians Designate Scott Barlow For Assignment

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The Guardians have designated right-hander Scott Barlow for assignment, according to MLB.com’s Transactions Tracker. Taking his spot on the 40-man and active rosters will be left-hander Anthony Gose, whose contract was selected according to Gose’s MLB.com Player Page.

Barlow, 31, was acquired by the Guardians in a trade with the Padres last November that sent right-hander Enyel De Los Santos to San Diego. A longtime Royals relief arm who emerged as the club’s top leverage arm during the 2021 season, Barlow pitched to an excellent 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP in 148 2/3 innings between 2021 and ’22 while striking out 28.2% of batters faced and racking up 40 saves.

Unfortunately, he took a step back in 2023 with a somewhat uneven season. While his numbers under the hood during his time with the Royals last year, including a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 4.04 SIERA, offered plenty of reason for optimism, he struggled in terms of preventing runs and ultimately surrendered a 5.35 ERA in 38 2/3 innings of work before being shipped to the Padres at the trade deadline. Once in uniform with San Diego, Barlow pitched much better down the stretch with a 3.07 ERA and 3.15 FIP in his final 29 1/3 innings last year. That seemed to leave Barlow poised to occupy a key role with the Padres in the late innings this year, but he was ultimately shipped to the Guardians as part of an effort to slash the club’s payroll and duck under the luxury tax for 2024.

That allowed the Guardians step in and take the opportunity to add Barlow to their already excellent bullpen, where he was poised to act as one of the top setup men for closer Emmanuel Clase. For much of the season, the right-hander performed that role admirably with a 3.12 ERA and 3.50 FIP in 43 1/3 innings of work through the end of July. Things took a sharp turn for the worse once the calendar flipped to August, however, and Barlow was shelled to the tune of an 8.49 ERA in 11 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has seemed lost on the mound for over a month now, with a 17.9% strikeout rate against a 10.7% walk rate to go along with three hit batters and two home runs over his last 13 appearances. As the Guardians look to fend off the Royals and Twins in the AL Central and earn a bye through the Wild Card Series this October, the club evidently felt they couldn’t afford to continue giving the righty opportunities to get right.

Barlow’s departure makes way for Gose, 34, on the big league roster. Once a top-100 prospect as a hitter with the Phillies, he struggled through five seasons in the majors with a below average .240/.309/.348 slash line in 372 career games and eventually decided to try converting to pitching. He resurfaced in the big leagues as a reliever in Cleveland back in 2021, impressing with a six-appearance cup of coffee that saw him strike out 37.5% of opponents and post a 1.35 ERA. Gose sported a respectable 3.90 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 27 2/3 innings of work as pitcher for his career when he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2022, and he spent the entire 2023 season rehabbing.

Now back in action with the Guardians, Gose surrendered three runs in 3 1/3 innings of work during a brief cup of coffee earlier this year but has posted a solid 3.27 ERA in 41 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level. He’ll get another opportunity with the big league club down the stretch as he looks to establish himself as a viable relief option for the 2025 campaign, whether that’s with Cleveland or elsewhere.

The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

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Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

Guardians, Padres Swap Scott Barlow, Enyel De Los Santos

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The Guardians announced they’ve acquired reliever Scott Barlow from the Padres. Fellow reliever Enyel De Los Santos is back to San Diego in a one-for-one swap. Cleveland also announced they’ve signed outfielder Ramón Laureano to a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. Zack Meisel of the Athletic reports (on X) that Laureano will make $5.15MM next season.

Barlow has spent the majority of his career in the AL Central. The right-hander reached the big leagues with the Royals in 2018. He logged five and a half seasons in Kansas City, where he was one of the game’s more quietly effective bullpen arms. Barlow turned in a sub-3.00 ERA over 74 1/3 innings in consecutive seasons from 2021-22. That excellent run prevention took a step back this year, as he carried a 5.35 mark through 38 2/3 frames at the time of the trade deadline.

The Royals swapped Barlow to San Diego last summer. While he’d been working as Kansas City’s closer, he stepped into a setup role in deference to Josh Hader at Petco Park. Barlow made 25 appearances for the Friars down the stretch, pitching to a 3.07 ERA. While Barlow was effective, he became a trade candidate yet again as rumors of payroll constraints in San Diego arose.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Barlow for a $7.1MM salary in what’ll be his final year of arbitration control. While that’s decent value for an effective reliever, the Padres are reportedly aiming to cut spending (potentially by as much as $50MM). Moving a non-closing reliever is one of the less impactful ways for San Diego to clear spending room, although it’s another hit to a bullpen that also stands to lose Hader to free agency.

It’s rare for the low-payroll Guardians to find themselves on this side of a trade of that nature. Cleveland tends to deal away players as they’re nearing free agency. The Guards jumped on the opportunity to add a high-quality reliever to join Trevor Stephan and Sam Hentges as a leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase.

To offset the loss of Barlow, San Diego brings back a more affordable short-term bullpen piece. De Los Santos had a nice 2023 campaign, pitching 70 times and working to a 3.29 ERA through 65 2/3 innings. The righty, 28 next month, had an average 23.7% strikeout rate and walked 9.5% of opposing hitters.

It was his second straight year with an ERA in the low 3.00s. Since signing a minor league deal over the 2021-22 offseason, he has turned in a 3.18 ERA over 119 frames. De Los Santos worked in mostly low-leverage situations but had pitched his way into the middle innings during his second season in Terry Francona’s bullpen.

De los Santos, who spent some time in the Padres system early in his minor league career, has between three and four years of MLB service. He will be eligible for arbitration for the next three years. Swartz forecasts him for an affordable $1.2MM this winter, meaning the deal should save San Diego roughly $6MM in the short term.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Exploring Scott Barlow Trades

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The Padres are “actively trying to move” right-hander Scott Barlow in trade talks with other teams, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  The arbitration-eligible Barlow is projected to earn $7.1MM in 2024, and with Friday’s non-tender deadline looming, the Friars are seeing what they can get for the reliever before having to make a decision on his roster status.

Barlow didn’t make MLBTR’s recent list of non-tender candidates, though it stands to reason that San Diego might consider cutting the 30-year-old entirely if they can’t find an acceptable trade.  While losing Barlow for nothing is obviously not an ideal outcome for the team, it would represent some noteworthy savings for a Padres club that is reportedly aiming to get their payroll to around the $200MM range in 2024, down from $249MM last season.  The $7.1MM price point could also be high for other teams, yet non-tendering Barlow altogether is still a somewhat unlikely outcome given the probable interest in his services, not to mention the fact that Padres could still shop him after Friday.

This will be Barlow’s third and final trip through the arbitration process before hitting free agency next winter, and the righty’s salaries have been elevated by the saves accumulated when he was the Royals’ closer in 2021-22.  Barlow posted a 2.30 ERA, 40 saves (in 50 chances), a 28.2% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate over 148 2/3 innings in those two seasons, earning a reputation as one of baseball’s more underrated relievers.  It also made him a popular trade candidate, though Barlow wasn’t actually dealt until Kansas City sent him to San Diego at the last trade deadline, and a case can be made that the Royals didn’t sell at the high point of Barlow’s value.

Over 38 2/3 innings with K.C. in 2023, Barlow’s ERA spiked to 5.35, in large part due to a walk rate that surged to 12.5%.  The downturn cost Barlow his closer’s job, and the Padres’ trade package of pitching prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams is certainly less than what the Royals would’ve received had they moved Barlow last offseason.  The move to San Diego seemed to turn Barlow’s fortunes around, as he cut back on the walks and delivered a 3.07 ERA over 29 1/3 frames in a Friars uniform.

All in all, Barlow finished with a 4.37 ERA over 68 total innings in 2023, with a 3.94 SIERA and a pretty impressive overall set of Statcast numbers, except for his mediocre walk rate.  Concerns over his control still exist, and Barlow’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.4mph in 2021 to 93.1mph in 2023, though his straight four-seamer has become only his third-most prominent pitch over the last two seasons.  Still, teams eager for bullpen help could certainly have interest in Barlow’s services, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a trade completed prior to Friday.

If Barlow was moved, of course, it would leave another hole in the Padres’ bullpen.  Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, and Luis Garcia are all free agents, leaving Robert Suarez as the top closing option and Barlow as the top candidate for set-up work.  The Padres could perhaps pivot to exploring only lower-cost options on the reliever market, though that puts extra pressure on the front office to make up those lost innings with some hidden-gem type of acquisitions.

Padres Acquire Scott Barlow

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The Padres acquired reliever Scott Barlow from the Royals for prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams, according to a team announcement.  The Friars also designated infielder Brandon Dixon for assignment to clear a spot for Barlow.

Barlow, 30, owns a 5.35 ERA, 26.7 K%, 12.5 BB%, and 45.2% groundball rate this year in 38 2/3 innings.  He’s saved 13 games for the Royals along the way.

The Dodgers drafted Barlow in the sixth round out of high school back in 2011.  He signed a split free agent contract with the Royals way back in December 2017.  Barlow started to find his footing in the Royals’ bullpen in the shortened 2020 season, working his way into a closer role the following year.

Barlow has had a couple of trips through arbitration, and decent save totals have led to a $5.3MM salary this year.  Barlow competed with Aroldis Chapman for the Royals’ late-inning work earlier this summer, though Chapman was traded to the Rangers in late June.

Since June 10th, Barlow has an 8.04 ERA, 17.0 K%, and 13.4 BB% in 15 2/3 innings, causing him to fall out of favor with manager Matt Quatraro.  Carlos Hernandez and others have leapfrogged Barlow on the depth chart, and now he’ll get a chance for a fresh start in San Diego.  Barlow can be controlled for 2024 through the arbitration process, but he’ll have to bounce back for the Padres to get tendered a contract.

Josh Hader continues to pitch well atop the Padres’ bullpen, and Robert Suarez made his season debut on July 21st after recovering from an elbow injury.  Nick Martinez and Steven Wilson have been key pieces as well.

Barlow is an aggressive pickup for a Padres team that enters play tonight five games out of the wild card.  The club entered the day with an estimated luxury tax payroll above $280MM, meaning they are in the 95% tax bracket.  FanGraphs still gives the Padres playoff odds of about 35%, and they also added Garrett Cooper, Rich Hill, and Ji Man Choi today.  Padres GM A.J. Preller chose to supplement his club with veterans, rather than cash in impending free agents such as Blake Snell and Hader.

As for the Royals’ return, Williams is a 21-year-old righty starting pitcher who was drafted in the third round out of Duke last year and signed for an above-slot $800K while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  The 6’5″ starter has struggled thus far in 12 Low-A ball starts, but before the season he was seen as a 45 or 50 grade prospect with a three-pitch mix and mid-rotation upside.

Rios, 21, has worked as a reliever this year in the rookie-level Dominican Summer League.  He’s posted a 6.38 ERA in 18 1/3 innings.

Dixon, 31, saw most of his big league time with the Reds and Tigers in 2018-19.  He spent 2021 with the Rakuten Golden Eagles and returned stateside on a minor league deal with the Padres.  He’s been up and down from the Major League club this year, picking up 86 plate appearances in 33 games.

Mark Feinsand was first to report the Padres’ acquisition of Barlow. 

Royals Fielding Offers On Several Veterans

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The Royals have been talking to other clubs about potential trades involving veteran pitchers Scott Barlow, Taylor Clarke and Ryan Yarbrough, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Outfielder Edward Olivares has also been discussed in potential deals.

Of the bunch, Barlow is the most obvious and straightforward trade candidate. The 30-year-old righty thrived as the primary closer in Kansas City from 2021-22, pitching 148 2/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball with 40 saves, a hefty 28.2% strikeout rate and a solid 8.4% walk rate. The 2023 season has been far more troublesome. Barlow’s average fastball sat at 95.3 mph in ’21 but has dipped to 92.9 mph this season. His walk rate has also spiked, and the right-hander’s 5.35 ERA is a career-worst mark.

That said, Barlow still figures to hold appeal to other clubs. Dip in velocity notwithstanding, he still has well above-average strikeout (26.2%), swinging-strike (12.6%) and opponents chase (37.6%) rates. His $5.3MM salary is generally affordable, and Barlow is controllable through 2024 via arbitration. This year’s struggles are at least in part due to a .340 average on balls in play and 61.6% strand rate, both worse-than-average marks which should eventually trend toward his career marks of .306 and 76.1%. Barlow had a solid 3.97 ERA as recently as July 16, but he’s been tagged for eight runs through 4 2/3 innings over his past five outings.

Clarke, also 30, has a shorter track record and more pronounced struggles in 2023. The right-hander has been tagged for a 6.00 ERA in 45 innings this year, thanks to a particularly dreadful slump dating back to mid-June. Clarke had a 2.70 ERA through his first 30 innings but has been tattooed for 22 runs in his past 15 innings. A season-long .374 BABIP isn’t helping his cause, but that alone doesn’t explain the extent of the right-hander’s struggles. From 2020-22, he pitched to a respectable, if unspectacular 4.44 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates.

The 31-year-old Yarbrough inked a one-year deal with Kansas City after spending his entire big league career with the Rays organization. He’s earning $3MM this season and, although he missed time after a frightening incident where he was struck by a comebacker, the lefty has been decent when on the field. In 51 innings — seven starts, seven relief outings — he’s posted a 4.24 ERA. Yarbrough has one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB (13.7%) but also one of the lowest walk rates (4.2%) among pitchers with at least 50 innings.

While Yarbrough started the season in Kansas City’s bullpen, he moved into the rotation not long before his injury and has continued starting since returning in early July. He’s made four starts since coming off the IL, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings. He’s a pure rental and could help round out the back of someone’s rotation in the season’s final two months.

Olivares, 27, came to the Royals from the Padres organization in the 2020 trade that sent Trevor Rosenthal to San Diego. He looked solid at the plate in 2022 when he hit .286/.333/.410 with four homers, eight doubles and a pair of steals in 174 trips to the plate. His 2023 output has taken a step back. He’s logged a career-high 274 plate appearances but turned in a tepid .246/.299/.409 batting line.

The right-handed-hitting Olivares has even platoon splits this year but has generally been better against righties than lefties, when looking at his career as a whole. He’s played all three outfield spots in his career but has primarily worked in the corners; he doesn’t have above-average grades at any of the three positions, though. Olivares would be controllable for three more years beyond the current season, but he hasn’t developed as the Royals had hoped and is more of a change-of-scenery candidate than someone who’d fetch them meaningful prospect depth.

Royals Listening To Trade Offers On Scott Barlow

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The Royals are listening to trade offers on reliever Scott Barlow, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It doesn’t appear as though they are actively shopping him but it’s noteworthy that they seem open to considering trade scenarios.

There are several reasons why a deal would make plenty of sense, one of which is the performance of the Royals this year. The club is out to a dismal 17-39 start, a record worse than every club in the majors except for the Athletics. They’re already 16 games out of the Wild Card race and 12.5 back of the Twins in the weak American League Central division. That makes them one of the few obvious sellers with the expanded postseason making most clubs at least marginal contenders.

Then there’s Barlow himself, who has been serving as an effective reliever in Kansas City for the past few years. Since debuting in 2018, he’s made 259 appearances with a 3.16 ERA, 29% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. He has kept earned runs off the board at an even better rate in recent years, as he had a 2.42 ERA in 2021 and a tiny 2.18 mark last year. His ERA has jumped to 3.86 here in 2023 but his 3.34 FIP is actually lower than his 3.62 from last year. He has bumped his strikeout rate from 26.6% in 2022 to 33.7% this year but his walks also jumped from 7.6% to 12.8%. All of that has come with increased leverage work, as he racked up a combined 40 saves over 2021 and 2022 and six more so far this year.

Barlow, 30, wouldn’t be a pure rental since this is his second of three arbitration seasons, meaning he can still be retained for 2024. That means the Royals don’t strictly have to trade him, as they could decide to keep him around and hope for better results next year. Even if the club didn’t return to contention, there would be another opportunity to trade him at next year’s deadline, though he would have less value when being marketed for one postseason run instead of two. Relievers are often prone to fluctuations in performance, not to mention the ever-present injury risk with all pitchers. If they were to hold onto him, they would run the risk of a dip in performance or an injury diminishing his trade value even further. Taking that into consideration, there would certainly be an argument for pulling the trigger now.

There’s also the fact that just about every contending club could fit another reliever or two into their bullpens, especially one as talented as Barlow, meaning the Royals would have no shortage of suitors. The righty is making an affordable $5.3MM this year and would be in line for a raise next year. They still have a couple of months before the August 1 trade deadline to suss out his market, but Barlow looks like one of the clearer trade candidates this summer.

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