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The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

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Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

Guardians Designate Daniel Norris For Assignment, Select Zack Collins

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The Guardians made a series of roster moves today, with Zack Meisel of The Athletic among those to relay them. Catcher Zack Collins has been selected to the roster while left-hander Tim Herrin has been recalled. In corresponding moves, Cam Gallagher was placed on the seven-day concussion injured list while lefty Daniel Norris was designated for assignment.

Gallagher was removed from last night’s game with a potential head injury, per Tom Withers of the Associated Press. It appeared to stem from being struck by a foul ball earlier in the contest, per Bally Sports Cleveland. It seems the issue is significant enough that the club will give him a breather for at least a week.

The Guards have had Gallagher and Bo Naylor as their catching duo in recent days, with David Fry having been placed on the IL due to a left hamstring strain last week and Mike Zunino released earlier in the summer. With Gallagher now set to miss some time, the club needed an extra backstop and has opted for Collins.

The 28-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Guards in the offseason and has been with Triple-A Columbus all year so far. In 109 games at that level this season, he’s hit .255/.364/.437 for a wRC+ of 101. He’s struck out in 31.5% of his plate appearances but walked at a 14.5% clip and launched 15 home runs.

That’s somewhat similar output to what he’s done in the majors so far. In 150 games dating back to 2019 with the White Sox, Blue Jays and Pirates, he’s been punched out at a 33.6% clip while walking in 12.9% of his trips to the plate. He has 11 home runs in 459 plate appearances while slashing .185/.295/.327 for a 74 wRC+. He has generally received poor marks for his defense in the big leagues, with -23 from Defensive Runs Saved so far and a score of -16.7 from the FanGraphs framing metric.

Collins is out of options but can be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he continues to hang onto his roster spot. He came into this year with a service time tally of two years and 95 days. He won’t have enough time to reach the three-year mark this year and could therefore be controlled for four future seasons.

In order to get Collins onto the 40-man, the Guards have bumped off Norris. The 30-year-old southpaw signed a minor league deal with Cleveland in the offseason and has twice now been selected and then designated for assignment shortly thereafter. He’s made six appearances for the Guards with a 3.38 ERA but has been helped by a .172 batting average on balls in play in that time. He has a 5.60 ERA in 53 Triple-A innings this year.

With the trade deadline now in the rearview, the Guards will have to put Norris on waivers in the coming days. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, but he accepted his outright when he was DFA’d in June and could perhaps do the same again this time around.

Guardians Move Shane Bieber To 60-Day IL, Select Daniel Norris

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The Guardians announced a trio of pitching moves, including the selection of Daniel Norris’ minor league contract.  To create room on both the 26-man and 40-man rosters, Cleveland optioned left-hander Tim Herrin to Triple-A, and moved Shane Bieber to the 60-day injured list.

Bieber was already on the 15-day IL with a retroactive placement date of July 12.  His new 60-day window still starts from July 12, meaning that the right-hander will now be out of action until at least September 10 while recovering from right elbow inflammation.  Earlier reports indicated that Bieber is at least another week away from resuming throwing, and though surgery wasn’t going to be required, the move to the 60-day IL indicates that Bieber still requires plenty of time to recover.

The injury already scuttled any chance that Bieber might be dealt at the trade deadline, as there had been speculation that the Guardians might continue their pattern of moving higher-priced veterans 12-18 months before they reached free agency (Bieber is controlled through the 2024 campaign).  At this point, it’s fair to wonder if Bieber’s 2023 season might be over entirely, either in the event of a setback or if the Guards might simply shut him down early if they’re out of the playoff race by mid-September.

Cleveland enters today’s action with a 49-50 record, but the Guardians are still only three games out of first place in the AL Central and 5.5 games back of the last AL wild card slot.  Catching up to the Twins might be more a realistic path to the playoffs than leapfrogging other teams in the wild card race, but in either case, the Guardians have to play some much more consistent baseball in order to return to the postseason.

Losing Bieber for an extended amount of time won’t help in that regard, as the Guards will have to lean even heavier on a very young group of starters.  With Bieber and Triston McKenzie both on the 60-day IL and Cal Quantrill also injured, Cleveland has three rookies (Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams) backing up Aaron Civale in the rotation.  Peyton Battenfield is close to returning from the 60-day IL, though Battenfield is another first-year pitcher.

Norris might factor into this mix after starting 12 of his 18 games with Triple-A Columbus.  The southpaw signed a minors deal with Cleveland over the winter and has already had his contract selected once, appearing in a single game for the Guardians last month.  Norris was then designated for assignment and outrighted off the 40-man roster, and chose to accept the outright assignment rather than test free agency again.

It may have been a wise decision, as Norris now finds himself back on a big league roster.  The Guardians could use Norris as a proper starter, a piggyback starter paired with Battenfield, or perhaps simply as a long relief option out of the bullpen.  This versatility could help the Guardians navigate their rotation questions, though Norris’ performance has been very up-and-down over his 10 MLB seasons, and he has a 5.60 ERA over 53 innings in Columbus.

Guardians Place Triston McKenzie On IL With Elbow Sprain

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8:44pm: As noted by Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com, manager Terry Francona told reporters that an MRI revealed that McKenzie was suffering from inflammation in his right elbow, with Francona noting that the inflammation “means the UCL is involved.” It’s obviously less than ideal news for McKenzie, as UCL issues can often require Tommy John surgery, though it’s certainly possible that this issue won’t rise to that level. Per Francona, McKenzie will head back to Cleveland to be examined by team staff before the club determines next steps.

6:30pm: The Guardians are making a series of roster moves ahead of tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks, as noted by Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The club is placing right-hander Triston McKenzie on the injured list with a right elbow sprain, designating right-hander Touki Toussaint for assignment, selecting the contract of left-hander Daniel Norris, and recalling left-hander Tim Herrin from Triple-A. Meisel also notes that the club is recalling catcher Bo Naylor, as previously expected.

McKenzie, who was scratched from yesterday’s start with elbow discomfort, now heads to the IL with a sprain in his right elbow. While further details have not yet been made available, it’s certainly an ominous diagnosis for the 25-year-old hurler, particularly after missing the first two months of the season with a teres major strain. McKenzie made just two starts before returning to the IL, striking out ten over five scoreless innings against the Twins before getting lit up for five runs in five innings against the Astros at home last week.

Of course, McKenzie was a key factor in Cleveland’s success last season as he threw 191 1/3 innings with a 2.96 ERA and 3.59 FIP. McKenzie posted an excellent 25.6% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.9% as he helped to lead the Guardians to a surprising AL Central crown before the club fell to the Yankees in the ALDS. The club has struggled to replicate its 2022 campaign this year, with a record of just 32-37 that leaves them three games back of the Twins in a weak AL Central division.

Some of those struggles can be attributed to the uncertainty facing the club’s starting rotation, as only Shane Bieber has managed to stay healthy and effective as a starter throughout the entire season to this point, though youngsters Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee have done well following in-season promotions. Unfortunately, that uncertainty appears poised to continue with McKenzie headed back to the injured list with what could be another lengthy absence, though his timetable for return will remain uncertain until the club provides additional clarity on the situation.

Joining the club’s pitching staff as McKenzie exits is a pair of left-handers. Herrin, a 26-year-old who made his MLB debut for the Guardians earlier this season, struggled to a 6.39 ERA and 4.54 FIP in ten major league appearances but has posted more palatable numbers at the Triple-A level with a 3.93 ERA in 18 1/3 innings of work. Norris, meanwhile, signed with the Guardians on a minor league deal back in March. He’s struggled to a 6.93 ERA in 14 appearances (nine starts) at the Triple-A level this season, though the veteran has pitched in parts of nine major league seasons and has been roughly league average by measure of ERA+, with figure of 99 in 569 2/3 career innings of work.

Making room for Norris on the active roster is Toussaint, who departs the Guardians after making a spot start last night in McKenzie’s stead. The 27-year-old former first round pick allowed two runs on three hits and five walks over 3 2/3 innings of work while striking out two against the Diamondbacks yesterday. The Guardians now figure to either attempt to swing a trade involving the right-hander or attempt to pass him through waivers. If successful in doing so, Cleveland could outright Toussaint to Triple-A, where he would continue to serve as pitching depth for the club going forward.

Guardians Designate Richie Palacios For Assignment

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The Guardians made a series of roster moves this morning, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Infielder Richie Palacios has been designated for assignment and left-hander Tim Herrin has been optioned to Triple-A in order to make room for right-hander Cody Morris, who was activated from the 60-day IL this morning.

A third round pick by Cleveland in the 2018 draft, Palacios made his MLB debut for the club last year, though he struggled to a .232/.293/.286 slash line (good for a wRC+ of just 65) in 54 games with the club. Those struggles came in spite of fantastic minor league numbers, as Palacios hit at an above average level at every stop on his minor league journey until his major league debut. That includes a 2021 campaign where he slashed an impressive .297/.404/.471 in 103 games split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.

Unfortunately, things have taken a turn for the worse for Palacios in 2023, as the young infielder has failed to hit even at the Triple-A level, with a meager .217/.351/.318 slash line that’s good for a wRC+ of just 78 in 56 games with Columbus this season. Those struggles have seemingly caused the Guardians to pull the plug on Palacios, who they will now have seven days to trade or attempt to pass through waivers.

As a 26-year-old infielder with positional versatility, past success in the minors, and options remaining, Palacios seems likely to be an attractive option for infield-needy clubs on the waiver wire, though if he were to pass through waivers he would not be able to reject an outright assignment from the Guardians.

Herrin, 26, heads to Columbus after making his major league debut earlier this season. In ten appearances with the Guardians, the lefty struggled to a 6.39 ERA across 12 2/3 innings of work, allowing two home runs, five walks, and hitting a batter. Those issues with the long ball and control hampered Herrin even as he posted a solid 25.5% strikeout rate in the majors. Herrin figures to act as bullpen depth for Cleveland going forward in Triple-A, where he has posted a 3.63 ERA in 17 1/3 innings of work this season.

Those moves pave the way for the return of Morris, a 26-year-old right-hander who made an impressive big league debut with the Guardians last season. In seven appearances split between the bullpen and the rotation, Morris posted a 2.28 ERA (170 ERA+), though his 4.34 FIP indicates there may have been some good fortune in those run prevention numbers, particularly given the fact that his 12% walk rate and 35.4% groundball rate all leave something to be desired.

Still, Morris’s minor league numbers are certainly intriguing, with a career 1.68 ERA and a 37.8% strikeout rate in 80 1/3 innings of work between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. After opening the season on the injured list with a teres major strain, Morris now figures to assist the Guardians pitching staff as an option for both the rotation and the bullpen going forward, though he seems ticketed for the bullpen for the time being.

Guardians, Daniel Norris Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians are in agreement with reliever Daniel Norris on a minor league contract, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’ll report to minor league camp and likely open the season with Triple-A Columbus.

Norris had been in camp with the Reds but was released on Monday. That came on the heels of a tough Spring Training, as he’d allowed six runs (five earned) over 6 2/3 innings with seven walks and five strikeouts. That predictably wasn’t enough to earn a season-opening roster spot in spite of a Cincinnati bullpen that only has one lock for left-handed relief (Reiver Sanmartin).

A veteran of parts of nine big league campaigns, the 29-year-old Norris split last season between the Cubs and Tigers. He threw 58 2/3 innings over 41 outings, pitching to a 5.22 ERA with an above-average 26.4% strikeout rate and a lofty 11.6% walk percentage. It was a tail of two seasons, as Norris had plenty of punchouts and walks in Chicago before trimming both numbers later in the year with Detroit.

The Guardians will be without top southpaw Sam Hentges to start the season, as he’s battling shoulder inflammation. That thinned the left-handed bullpen depth. Cleveland informed reporters this afternoon that 26-year-old Tim Herrin will break camp in the MLB bullpen (relayed by Zack Meisel of the Athletic). He’ll be the only southpaw in Terry Francona’s Opening Day relief corps.

Herrin, a 29th-round draftee out of Indiana in 2018, split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Akron and Columbus. He worked 69 1/3 frames, allowing a 4.02 ERA. Herrin’s strikeout and walk numbers were much more eye-catching than the run prevention. He fanned 34.1% of opponents against a 7.8% walk percentage. Cleveland added him to the 40-man roster over the offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’s now going to get a chance to make his big league debut after striking out 11 with two walks in 9 2/3 frames of five-run ball in camp.

Guardians Release Kirk McCarty

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NOVEMBER 17: McCarty has been released, according to the transactions log at MLB.com.

NOVEMBER 15: The Guardians announced a series of roster moves in setting their 40-man roster in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft. In addition to tonight’s pair of trades — Nolan Jones to the Rockies; Carlos Vargas to the D-backs — Cleveland has designated lefties Anthony Gose and Kirk McCarty for assignment. The series of subtractions from the 40-man paves the way for the Guardians to select the contracts of infielder Angel Martinez and lefties Joey Cantillo and Tim Herrin. Cleveland also selected infielder Juan Brito, whom they acquired from Colorado in exchange for Jones. The team’s 40-man roster is at capacity.

It’s been quite the year for McCarty, from a transactions standpoint. Originally called to the Majors as a Covid replacement in April, McCarty was returned to the minors shortly thereafter but formally selected to the 40-man roster the following month. Cleveland designated him for assignment on July 3, after which he was claimed by the Orioles, who designated him for assignment just nine days later and lost him on waivers… back to the Guardians. Beyond that series of moves, McCarty was optioned to the minors on four separate occasions over the course of his roller coaster season.

The 27-year-old McCarty generated decent but unspectacular results at the big league level in his his rookie effort this year, logging a 4.54 ERA in 37 2/3 frames. His 16.4% strikeout rate was well below average, but he turned in a respectable 8.2% walk rate. McCarty has well above-average spin on his fastball and curveball, but he doesn’t throw especially hard or miss many bats, and the 2.63 HR/9 he yielded this season is an obvious red flag. He was solid in Triple-A (3.52 ERA in 65 1/3 innings) and does have multiple minor league option years remaining, so another club in need of some left-handed depth could conceivably take a look.

Gose, 32, was one of baseball’s feel-good stories in recent years. Originally a second-round pick and top prospect as an outfielder, his career stalled out after he was unable to produce much at the plate in the Majors or in the upper minors. Gose, a two-way star in high school who some scouts preferred as a pitcher in the draft, got back on the mound in A-ball as a 26-year-old in 2017 and, after taking several years to refine his command and learn to control his blazing fastball, finally made it back to the big leagues in 2021.

Gose didn’t just return to the Majors last year, though. He tossed 6 2/3 innings out of the Cleveland bullpen and allowed just a run on two hits and two walks with nine strikeouts and a heater that averaged 99.2 mph. It was a small sample, of course, but Gose stormed out of the gates in 2022 with 20 1/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball and a 31.4% strikeout rate. Walks looked like an issue (14%), but by that point Gose’s big league pitching career consisted of 27 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with 36 strikeouts.

The Yankees pounced on Gose for four runs in his next outing, however, after which he landed on the injured list. The Guardians initially characterized the move as one made out of necessity with a doubleheader looming, but Gose’s absence proved protracted, and more than two months after he was shelved, the team announced Gose had undergone Tommy John surgery. The Sept. 14 date of the procedure all but formally rules Gose out for the 2023 campaign, so it’s no surprise to see the Guardians open his roster spot in this fashion.

Joining the Guardians’ 40-man roster are two of their top 30 prospects — Martinez and Cantillo — as well as a lefty reliever (Herrin) who posted eye-popping numbers in Double-A. Baseball America ranks Martinez 12th in Cleveland’s system and Cantillo 15th. Martinez hit .278/.378/.471 as a 20-year-old between High-A and Double-A this season. Cantillo was limited to just 60 2/3 innings by a shoulder strain this season but made 14 appearances (13 starts) with a 1.93 ERA and 35.5% strikeout rate. Herrin, 26, turned in a 2.01 ERA and 41.6% strikeout rate in 22 1/3 Double-A innings before being bumped to Triple-A, where he recorded a 4.98 ERA and “just” a 30.9% strikeout rate in 47 frames.

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