The Reds’ offense has underwhelmed as a whole this season — as have many lineups around the game — entering play Thursday with a tepid .226/.307/.372 batting line that clocks in 10% worse than league-average, per wRC+. Cincinnati ranks 13th in the majors in runs scored and 17th in home runs, but that’s largely been a function of situational hitting. Overall, Reds hitters rank 27th in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage and 21st in slugging percentage. They have baseball’s seventh-best walk rate, but also the game’s sixth-highest strikeout rate.
Injuries have played a large role. Matt McLain has been out all season due to shoulder surgery. TJ Friedl has only been able to take 80 plate appearances due to a pair of bad-luck fractures (one in his right wrist, another in his left thumb). Christian Encarnacion-Strand struggled when healthy and is now dealing with both a fracture and ligament damage in his hand, which could cost him the remainder of the season.
Another key factor in the Reds’ offensive struggles has been the absence of third baseman Noelvi Marte, who was hit with an 80-game suspension this spring after testing positive for a banned substance. Marte is gearing up for a return, however. The Reds have played 68 games this season, and the 22-year-old Marte recently went out on a Triple-A assignment to ramp up for his return to play. He’s appeared in two games and gone 3-for-10 with a trio of singles and three strikeouts so far.
Certainly, any time a player is hit with a PED-related ban, their prior offensive performance generates some skepticism among fans. Marte, who hit .316/.366/.456 (120 wRC+) with three homers and seven doubles in 123 plate appearances as a rookie, will have his share of doubters. But he’s long ranked among the game’s most promising prospects and has stunningly consistent results from the minors up through the majors. Marte hit between .271 and .281 at every stop from Low-A, to High-A, to Double-A to Triple-A. His on-base percentage at each of those stops fell between .356 and .369 (lining up with his .366 OBP in last year’s MLB debut). His slugging, similarly, clocked in between .451 and .464.
Marte will be eligible to return to the team later this month and could provide an immediate boost to a club that has seen its third basemen combine to bat just .215/.275/.407. Most of that has been Jeimer Candelario (.226/.294/.494 at the hot corner), though utilityman Santiago Espinal has also played at the hot corner and struggled when there.
Candelario recently spoke with MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon about his early slump this season, preaching the importance of remaining calm and positive during his difficult start to the season. The switch-hitting veteran batted just .189/.282/.379 through the end of April but has since heated up. Over his past 153 trips to the plate, Candelario is slashing .292/.333/.563 with nine homers, ten doubles, a triple, a 5.2% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Manager David Bell praised Candelario’s upbeat nature and even-keel demeanor in the face of his April struggles, telling Sheldon that the glowing reviews of Candelario’s personality and demeanor played into the team’s offseason interest in him. “Everyone we talked to about Jeimer had nothing but positive things to say,” said Bell. “Very important, not only the character in the clubhouse but being a hitter, the stability he provides our lineup.” Catcher Tyler Stephenson offered similar praise about what Candelario has meant to teammates.
Once Marte comes back, Candelario could slide across the diamond and handle first base on a regular basis, stepping in for the injured Encarnacion-Strand and pushing Spencer Steer back to the outfield on a more regular basis. That’d make for a deeper and more consistent lineup.
The offensive side of the game isn’t the only place the Reds have been upended, however. A potentially season-ending shoulder issue for lefty Brandon Williamson and some notable struggles from righty Graham Ashcraft have created uncertainty at the back of the starting rotation as well. While swingman Nick Martinez, who inked a two-year deal worth $26MM over the offseason, is always an option to step into a starting role, it seems the club will give an opportunity to young righty Carson Spiers in the near-term.
Bell said this week that Spiers will step into the rotation Monday (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The 26-year-old Spiers has appeared in five games for Cincinnati this season but worked in a multi-inning relief role. In 19 1/3 frames, he’s notched a tidy 2.33 earned run average with a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate against an excellent 5% walk rate. He’s been similarly effective in a starting role down in Triple-A Louisville. Through nine appearances (eight starts), the 6’3″ righty touts a 2.51 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate.
It’s not clear yet whether Spiers will be afforded a long-term audition or whether he’ll be ousted in the event that Ashcraft turns a corner down in Louisville after being optioned, but the undrafted 2020 free agent will have some control over his own fate when he takes the mound Monday at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park to take on the division-rival Pirates.
Candelario, unfortunately, looked good last night.
He is still a 230-240 hitter who comes and goes.
In today’s game, a .230 to .240 hitter who keeps an OPS near .800 is considered a “star.” Well, maybe not a “star”… Nevertheless, if the Reds get that production from Candelario, there’s no legitimate complaint. Barring injury or a trade, it’s my observation that Candelario & GABP will be best friends by the time October rolls around. That .230-.240 average might be a severe underestimate for Candelario & GABP.
You realize who you’re responding too right before you? While BA are nice they don’t mean much without the rest of the 2 stats. There is no way he will give any kudos to a signing by Krall.
Meanwhile the bullpen that Krall help build is in the Top 5 in several categories and they have lost only 1 game while leading after 7.
Krall should have done better trying to get more help from the RH side when Tommy Pham was available but he’s also dealing with an incompetent ownership hierarchy that is complicated by how many small minority owners there are.
Yeah, only the uneducated baseball fan hangs their hat on batting average. And if he’s anything, he’s a 240-250 hitter, which is league average.
He led the league in doubles in 2021 with 42 and followed that up with 39 in 2023. A double is much more valuable than a single, unless you’re talking about batting average. And he’s on track for nearly 30 HRs this year.
Candelario currently has the highest OPS on the Reds, but let’s try to find fault with him anyway. It’s what you do best “this one”.
You give a big speech about someone being uneducated because of batting averages but defend a player with a war of .5 half way through the season. He is very replaceable and harping on people about batting averages doesn’t prove you know more about baseball.
Candle has a 295 BA since May 8. How about that?
Leads the Reds in several offensive categories. He’s no Brooks at 3B but he’s not Dick Stuart either. He was brought in to be 1B/DH depth.
The fact that he’s leading in offensive categories makes him not the problem but missing Marte. Matt and CES does.
Let’s Blow Mets – The knock on Candelario for the detractors since the Reds signed him was his career BA. “This One” paints a picture of him being a .230-.240 hitter, where he pulls the .230 out of nowhere. “This One” tends to slant stats to match his narrative, and he knows better.
JC’s value is that he’s a doubles machine. His WAR is pulled down by an uncharacteristic -0.8 defensive WAR at 3B this year. He’s been typically league average at 3B over his career, so his struggles at third this year are a bit of a mystery. Kinda like the Mets huh?
I’d put good money that the defensive struggles fade, if only because Marte will return and move JC back to first.
I don’t know more than the average fan, I just call bs when I hear it.
Candelario is currently in the running for most productive Reds hitter. I think that means he is not replaceable. On top, he is the only sort of veteran position player on the team and seems to accept that role.
That WAR also reflects a negative dWAR. You rather his defense be better, but reality is he is filling in a premium position for a suspended player, which the team unexpectedly needs him to do. It’s like Martinez taking spot starts. They check their ego and stat line to do the work that needs to be done and keep the whole thing from crashing.
And he is plain awful at 3B
And worse at 1B
There you are Bobbycat. Can’t have a Krall bashing without you … You two are a weak version of the bash brothers.
Steer was pretty bad at 3B, which is why he got moved to LF. Candelario will fit in nicely at 1B or DH once Marte is back.
Hey, did you notice the kids on your front lawn?
He’s league average at 1B over his career. Don’t let the facts get in the way of your narrative.
Compared to say Castellanos, Candelario has 3.5 fewer WAR.But he has acheived those 10.6 WAR in 2500 fewer PA. BTW, Jeimer is also making $15MM fewer $$ over the next 3 years, a switchhitter and in his prime. He is a bargain and Reds are fortunate to have him.
So are players who have been suspended but are allowed to begin “rehab” assignments playing for free?
This is a great question. I would also be interested in the answer. Are they eligible for the IL if they get hurt?
Yes, he is playing for free in the minors until the 80 games suspension is over. If he gets hurt, he will go on the IL and get paid after the suspension is finished.
It’s been pretty clearly conveyed that Marte was just taking the PEDs for the Hamstring injury he suffered over the offseason. So that gives hope his production will be fine
However with that being said it was still a stupid decision rather him missed the entire year with that hamstring issue than have his career stained forever
Of course, we don’t know what he was told down there about what he was asking or who told him to take it. That needs looked into and addressed.
That’s usually what people take PED’s for. Or at least how it starts. The primary advantages of PED’s are it allows players to overcome injury faster and train harder.
Pretty stupid reason to miss 80 games for.
Everyone always has an excuse why they took them.
“Over his past 153 trips to the plate, Candelario is slashing .292/.333/.563 with nine homers, ten doubles, a triple, a 5.2% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate.”
Someone will still come in here talking about how awful he is
Found him
It’s a long season and there’s a lot of talent in this organization still. Even with all the injuries. Rotation is straight and bullpen should improve based on several guys career numbers. Get de la Cruz back on track and build some chemistry. This team is playoff bound
Oh boy. Steve Adam’s, the author of this story, will now be stained with “worshipping at the altar” title!
Can’t you even copy “Adams” without throwing in a goober-brained apostrophe?
Probably an IPhone-brained apostrophe
The Reds lineup can be painful to watch, kind of like the Red Sox. When they click they are fun but when they don’t its ugly…
The Reds gave paid all season for lack of preparation in the offseason to have a complete roster to guard against such issues. Every team has injuries and smart GMs have a roster have built a roster that can withstand those.
Hopes and wishing for the best don’t cut it.
They added Montas and Martinez for rotation depth, plus Suter, Pagan, Farmer, Wilson to the bullpen, plus Candelario to the infield, and traded for Espinal before OD after the McLain injury. Arguably they could have added another corner OF bat but probably at the expense of Stuart Fairchild, who has proved valuable in CF during Friedl’s extended absence and in the lineup against LHPs.
Even with the benefit of hindsight, that seems like a pretty decent offseason, given what was available on the market. Who specifically should they have added and who should they have cut to make room?
Reds are young, talented, and inexperienced. Always was going to be a transistion year in 2024. BTW, I left out exciting, which is what many of us follow the team for.
Don’t you love this nut? He’s trolling at this point.
Candelabra was signed to be depth at 1B. DH. Just an extra cog to use around Marte. CES. Steer.
India was going to be the back up to Matt. DH sometimes. Possibly LF. They were the depth. How much depth can you sign? Martini. Espinal. Dunn and Herby have become the depth.
People were complaining that they had too much depth and didn’t need another IF when they signed Candy. Seems like they covered themselves pretty well.
Are you truly a Reds fan? The concern going into the season was who was going to ride the bench or be sent to AAA. Personally the Jeimer signing at the time didn’t make sense to me. McClain, Friedl, Marte before Opening Day, now CES, yet it’s not like they are rolling a AAAA team out there. They aren’t a team which was going to spend wildly, which is why they didn’t sign a corner OF and instead went to Steer in LF and India as a utility guy, but with the injuries they slide back into 1B and 2B. Unless the Reds were a club which emptied their pockets, which they are not, not really sure what your realistic expectation is, that the front office should have done to prepare for this.
Been a Reds fan longer than you have probably been alive.
Many players were unsigned going into spring training and were reasonably priced.
No legit veteran ace for two seasons, two corner outfielders you couldn’t count on, and foolishly spending a ton on an infielder they won’t need after June. The back end if the bullpen needed shored up and was not. They ruined their closer by stretching him out with two inning saves last year when they burned out the bullpen.
The guy who failed at making moves necessary to get them to the postseason got promoted. That says it all about commitment.
Again, we were told it would be a contending team. It was built on hopes and dreams, not reality, and you see the result.
No playoff series wins since 1995.
We have seen this act too many times.
I’m not the young pup you think I am. I was at that game in 95 when the Reds completed the sweep against the Dodgers, also sadly their last home playoff victory.
It’s easy to point to shoring up the bullpen and legitimate ace or the unsigned guys as reasonable prices, but who, who were the Reds going to sign to fill these holes that are there now. It’s easy to look at the team now and see the current holes. What legitimate ace were they going to sign with their budget constraints? Their bullpen is top 5, who would you have signed and who would you have dropped from the current bullpen.
Is the Reds office perfect, heck, far from it, however I personally like what they have done with the resource constraints they have.
No one promised a WS contender. However they are right in the thick of the wildcard chase with 90+ to play and the team isn’t even playing to capacity yet.
So you are legitimately an obtuse tool and are now going to complain that they signed Candelabra FOR DEPTH but complain they didn’t account for injuries while signing Candelabra FOR DEPTH but now he won’t be needed after June. Or are you talking about Espinal? Who cost nothing.
Did you see the stats I put up about the bullpen? At least we can criticize things as they happen while pointing out the several positives among the bad injuries. You’re actually complaining about a bullpen that has only 3 blown saves all season. 28-1 when leading going into the 7th. The next best team has 7 blown saves. How is this not building the back of the bullpen.
It was not hopes and dreams. Injuries screwed the offense. If you want to blame them for not seeing that Benson would regress go ahead. You think they were looking for his replacement after the season he had last year?
Quit blaming the last 20 years on Krall. I can play that game too. Marge Scott destroyed the farm system after she took over by saying What are scouts good for. All they do is sit there and watch games. The system went from Top 10 in the 80s to barely developing anyone in the 90s besides Reggie Sanders and Brett Tomko. Aaron Boone if you’re being kind.
It’s going to be interesting to watch Marte perform once he’s finished serving his suspension. Will his numbers stay good or was it really the juicing that got him going in the first place? As if the barrage of injuries wasn’t enough for the Reds…
Going to be interesting to watch Marye’s numbers once he comes back. Will his numbers regress because he was juicing or will he hover near his previous production? As if the Reds didn’t have a barrage of injuries to deal with…
Ok
The offense in both the AL and NL is down this year, and that makes me happy for one reason: manfred’s plan to give the offense all the breaks in order to entice the kinder to attend more games and leave the X Boxes and Play Stations behind is backfiring. Next on the list are robot umps who, unlike the real umps, you can take a bat to and reduce them to scrap.
Kids aren’t playing the game anymore either. Good point in the broadcast the other night that if De La Cruz grew up in America, he would probably be playing basketball or football.
Wrong, I live in rural Ohio and my kid’s 5th-6th grade league has 28 teams.
Good for them, but that doesn’t fully explain the empty baseball fields all over the country that used to be full.
Interesting, just pulled that attendance data for MLB teams. Can’t use this year’s data cause the mean would be different from 22-23 because the season is still ongoing… But, the attendance, even in Oakland when up from 22 to 23. espn.com/mlb/attendance/_/year/2023
Very interested to see where you’re getting your data from. Please provide source
Reds are 28-1 when leading entering the 7th.
3 total blown saves. Best in majors. Next team has 7.
At least poor boy got something right. Too bad he can’t fix injuries and add more depth on top of the depth he tried to add.
The Reds have depth. You mistakenly seem to think that depth will perform at the same level. It won’t. That’s why its depth. If the performance was the same or better, they wouldn’t be depth. They would be starting. And their backup would be a lesser player, as well.
I know what depth mean. It’s a barb directed at the one Reds fan who constantly harps on Krall for not being prepared this year with more depth that he already had.
its, not it’s. Why should we pay attention to you?
I’m glad that Krall got promoted. He deserved it! He has built quite a nice team with the financial restraints he’s had to deal with!
As long as the Reds keep Krall and DJ in place, as well as hold onto a very good scouting department, they will find some success Even though they are saddled with a small market and a below average ownership group.