Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

The Twins enraged fans by slashing roughly $30MM of payroll after finally breaking their postseason losing streak last year, only to eventually endure one of the worst collapses of any team in recent history. As fans reeled from seeing a club that was a 95% playoff favorite late in the year somehow miss the postseason entirely, ownership announced its intent to explore a sale of the team. It's going to be quite the offseason in Minnesota.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Carlos Correa, SS: $128MM through 2028 (contract contains series of four vesting options)
• Pablo Lopez, RHP: $64.5MM through 2027
• Byron Buxton, CF: $60MM through 2028
• Christian Vazquez, C: $10MM through 2025
• Chris Paddack, RHP: $7.5MM through 2025
• Randy Dobnak, RHP: $4MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026)

Guaranteed salary for the 2025 season: $93MM
Total long-term guaranteed money: $274MM

Option Decisions

• Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout (Rays responsible for buyout)
• Kyle Farmer, INF: $6.25MM mutual option with $250K buyout
• Jorge Alcala, RHP: $1.5MM club option with $55K buyout (would remain arb-eligible if declined)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
• Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout)
• Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
• Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
• Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
• Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
• Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
• Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
• Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
• Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
• Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
• Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
• Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
• Non-tender candidates: Tonkin, Topa, Kirilloff

Free Agents

• Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, Anthony DeSclafani, Caleb Thielbar

It's been less than two years since the Twins installed Joe Pohlad as their executive chair and control person of the club. The grandson of Carl Pohlad, who purchased the club in 1984, and nephew of his successor Jim Pohlad, Joe took over control of the club not long after turning 40 years old. His first offseason instilled hope of a changing tide in Minnesota. The Twins handed out a franchise-record $200MM contract to keep Carlos Correa in Minnesota. By 2023, they trotted out a club-record payroll approaching $160MM and, for the first time since 2002, won a playoff series.

The good vibes didn't last. As soon as last offseason began, talk of reducing payroll amid uncertainty surrounding the team's television deal emerged. The Twins were one of several teams impacted, but few clubs pulled back spending to the extent of Minnesota. Payroll was slashed by about $30MM -- roughly 20% of the team's total spending the year prior -- leaving the front office to operate on the margins and bring in a series of budget-driven, short-term pickups to address a sweeping slate of needs, most notably the departure of 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray.

Nearly all of the bargain pickups the Twins put together fell short. Carlos Santana proved a successful move, hitting .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers and Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The others flopped.

Free agent relievers Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont struggled and were released midseason. Anthony DeSclafani, who'd missed most of '23 with injury, had season-ending surgery before the season began. Justin Topa, acquired alongside DeSclafani in the trade sending Jorge Polanco to the Mariners, missed almost all season with a knee injury suffered in spring training. Steven Okert, acquired for Nick Gordon, was dropped from the 40-man roster in August. The Twins got a couple prospects of note in that Polanco trade (Gabriel Gonzalez, Darren Bowen), so maybe it'll pan out in the long run, but insofar as the 2024 campaign is concerned, every addition fell short.

Despite those offseason whiffs, the Twins were in contention for much of the season. A good portion of that was spent chasing an upstart Guardians club, but for most of the summer the Twins were given overwhelming odds to reach the postseason. Even on Sept. 5, FanGraphs gave them a 95.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Twins faceplanted as the Tigers surged past them. Joe Pohlad opened the offseason by sidestepping payroll questions but pledging to put a better product on the field (X link via Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic).

Within the next two weeks, major changes had seized headlines in Minnesota. The Twins saw general manager Thad Levine -- No. 2 on their baseball operations hierarchy behind president Derek Falvey -- step down and leave the club. Days later, the Twins sent a press release announcing the Pohlad family's intent to explore a sale of the team.

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