The Cardinals didn't use the word "rebuild" at last week's press conference, but it's abundantly clear that they're taking a future-focused approach and stepping back from what's been a perennial goal of fielding a contender for decades. The 2025 season will be president of baseball operations John Mozeliak's final year on the job. A new era of Cardinals baseball is approaching. Let's break down what the offseason could entail.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nolan Arenado, 3B: $73MM through 2027
- Sonny Gray, RHP: $65MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)
- Willson Contreras, C: $59.5MM through 2027 (includes buyout of 2028 club option)
- Miles Mikolas, RHP: $16MM through 2025
- Steven Matz, LHP: $12MM through 2025
- Erick Fedde, RHP: $7.5MM through 2025
Option Decisions
- Kyle Gibson, RHP: $12MM club option with $1MM buyout
- Lance Lynn, RHP: $12MM club option with $1MM buyout
- Keynan Middleton, RHP: $6MM club option with $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ryan Helsley (5.105): $6.9MM
- JoJo Romero (4.045): $1.9MM
- John King (3.145): $1.5MM
- Lars Nootbaar (3.076): $2.5MM
- Brendan Donovan (3.000): $3.6MM
- Andre Pallante (2.145): $2.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: None
Free Agents
As the Cardinals' lackluster season drew to a close, it became increasingly clear that changes were on the horizon. Speculation ranged from the front office to the dugout. Ultimately, manager Oli Marmol will remain in place for the 2025 season, and Mozeliak will return for an 18th season leading baseball operations -- but with a caveat. Former Rays senior vice president and Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will oversee player development next season before taking the reins as the Cardinals' new president of baseball ops. General manager Mike Girsch has already been reassigned. In the dugout, several coaches have been let go already.
It feels almost foreign to be discussing the Cardinals, a bastion of competitive rosters in the NL Central for the past couple decades, as a team now focused not on who might be coming into the fold but rather who might be exiting the frame. That's reality, however, as much of the roster could turn over via a series of trades or surprising decisions on what otherwise seemed like straightforward option calls.
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Good luck, Cards fans. Prepare for never getting a straight answer as you build for the past, present, and future, all at one time, with no discernible plan.
Sounds like my rebuilding O’s
This Cardinals fan will take the ’25 Os over his team any day of the week.
Padres pass. Resign Martin Perez. Give 5th spot to Vasquez
Dodgers though. Yeah go call them.
Pads definitely don’t want to pay Gray’s salary. A relatively cheap Fedde would be appealing though. They’ll need to add to that rotation. There’s not enough internally.
Donovan seems quite valuable in terms of projected marginal value the next three years. I’m wondering if they can get what he actual provides in terms of value from a trade. If they are cutting payroll, he’s cheap for now, pretty good and fairly young. Could make sense to hold onto him.
Boy would it be funny for the Cards to pay down Contreras’ salary for him to play on the Cubs again… Chicago certainly hasn’t replaced him since he left.
I don’t see them paying down his salary. I can see them moving him for a very light return somewhere other than the NL Central.
Contreras to Seattle for pitching would make sense. The Mariners could use him at DH for 90 games and then have him catch 55 along Cal Raleigh. The Mariners offense is bad and his salary isn’t that much higher than Justin Turner’s was in 2024.
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That might work.
However, keep in mind that playing his home games in the Mariners park is going to affect his hitting (along with everyone else), and he’s not exactly a natural hitter.
Additionally the days he catches instead of Raleigh are going to be a shock to the Mariners pitchers. Raleigh is one of the best pitch callers and catching defenders in MLB.
But who know how Jerry thinks.
Jerry thinks “if this team folds up again in 2025, I am out of a job.”
If he thinks that, then trading for Contreras would be basically resigning.
I didn’t know Donovan was a switch-hitter. I guess he just chose to hit exclusively left-handed in 2024. 🙂
He’s not.; he’s LHH. That’s an error.
Or when did Gibson play for his hometown team? He’s from Indiana. Yeah he went to Mizzou, but he’s not from St. Louis.
Mizzou does not equal St. Louis.
My curiosity is focused on what the Braves and Reds will offer for Gray, and how much the team is willing to paydown to demand more from them. Both teams need pitching. That could be a nice little bidding war.
The Braves “need pitching”? One of the strengths of the franchise. Not likely to see them engage in a “bidding war” for Gray. They’ll be replacing Fried and Morton w/one of their young arms to offset the rise in payroll due their lineup regulars or signing a cheap vet as rotation insurance. Sale, Scwellenbach, Lopez, and Strider are a strong core 4 for their rotation. There are 5-6 MLB ready young arms that will be in a ST dogfight to claim that 5th rotation spot and provide starter depth to the MLB rotation. Besides, AA doesn’t get held hostage by his trade partners “demand(s).”
The other big questions is how much the team decides to cut spending due to the Ballys RSN implosion. I am scared that they get peanuts in return for Gray and Contreras when they could get significant value for each if they paydown their contracts by like 33-50%.
Just letting their FAs walk drops salary about $40M effectively. They don’t have to cut any further than that honestly based on previous spending, even considering the lost TV revenue.
After expansion and realignment they’ll be in the American League unless they decide to move to Memphis. It’s obvious they wore out their welcome with those fans and a move to Memphis could give em a fresh start
What?
On my! No more expansion, PLEASE! The on field product, across the league, is bad enough, as is – especially pitching!
Need to lower the average age on the team and find out why all their young players are flash in a pan types and never put together multiple good seasons. Now Gorman joined the club.
The lack of decent coaching is the cause, especially under Oli.
I just hope Mo is watching Mike Shildt and the Padres. I hope Oli is running to the fridge and getting his beers.
The team isn’t in as bad as shape as people are making it out to be. The Cardinals weren’t even the most disappointing team in their own division in 2024.
Having said that I am fine if they want to blow it all up. The team needs more top young talent and a better focus on how to develop that talent and support it once they become big leaguers.
Trading Contreras, Arenado and Gray would be dumping salary more than anything but they could pay some of those contracts to improve the return. Need to trade catchers more than 1. Might as well deal Helsley and Romero. Donovan and Nootbaar I would trade for the right return.
The team is not in bad shape. It has assets. It already has a lot of young talent and could have a lot more if deals are made.
No matter what the Cardinals do as long as Ollie remains as manager and dusty rusty Blake remains is pitching coach they will never get to the playoffs
Holy schmoly that was depressing. Textbook mediocrity trap: Overpaid veterans, middling prospects, and not enough pitching.
Top 3 minor league pitching system equals not enough pitching? Top 10 overall farm system equals middling? Huh?
The Cardinals are doing the right thing by revamping their minor league system. The deterioration began when Luhnow left for Houston and took a bunch of guys with him. By the time the front office attempted to save money during the 2020 pandemic season by not re-signing several coaches and roving instructors, the system was in complete free fall.
This was a disastrous mistake by the DeWitt family and POBO John Mozeliak.
Fans here in St. Louis were upset after the post-season/Chaim Bloom press conference because the organization didn’t specifically acknowledge mistakes. Mo acted like “it just happened.”
They spoke vaguely about the future, but didn’t take any responsibility for the past.
A lot of Cardinals fans want blood. The (forced?) retirement of long-time Director of Player Development Gary LaRoque and not re-signing MLB hitting coach Turner Ward was a good start but many fans want several more bodies. They want *someone to pay* for 2023’s losing season and this past season’s mediocrity.
Mo and Manager Oli Marmol will maintain their current roles during the transition season of 2025. I completely understand how this helps the organization, but A LOT of Cardinals fans will not rest until both are gone.
One of their minor league development failures may not entirely be their fault. Building permits for pitching and hitting labs in Florida were delayed by the local city council during the pandemic. On the other hand, I could see where the Cardinals *decided* not to grease any palms or actually spend money on these projects while minor league teams weren’t playing. Now, construction is supposed to take place after spring training, *during* the Class A/Florida Complex League seasons. (Personally, I’m more upset about things like this than the non-firings of guys like Mo and Marmol.)
The Cardinals seem to be on the right track, but they’re always a bit too conservative for most fans of the team. I tend to be a bit perturbed, while most of my fellow Cardinals are just furious. Winning could cure a lot of this, but that’s a long way away. I don’t expect a winning playoff team for several years.
That’s fine by me, but most Cardinals fans aren’t that patient.
Last years version had 62 comments
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/offseason-outlook-st-lo….
Mo and Dewit have brought a once proud and dominant franchise to its knees. Overpaying past their prime vets, not cultivating talent, and complacency has weakened this team to the point of no return. Why act like you don’t have money, but then spend it foolishly? Colorado and Arizona got hosed on trades and made teams not want to partner with St Louis anymore. Ownership needs to sell. And the FO needs to be drained. “The best fans in baseball” have had their fill.
Mo just isn’t good at his job. His decisions have put the Cardinals in the point where they’re far less talented than they were when he showed up.
A long time to be fair, but the trend has been visible to anyone remotely paying attention for almost a decade now.