When Brandon Lowe was healthy in 2020 and ’21, he was arguably the best second baseman in baseball. The Rays slugger led primary second basemen in home runs, RBI, OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR over those two seasons. Unfortunately, he has missed significant time with various injuries in each of the three years since. When he takes the field, however, Lowe is still a highly productive player. He launched 21 homers in 107 games this past season while producing a 123 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. His .350 xwOBA ranked in the 85th percentile of major league hitters.
Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM team option for Lowe’s services in 2025, rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free agency. The Rays might be notoriously close-fisted, but still, there was little doubt they’d exercise the option. A net $9.5MM is a bargain for a player like Lowe, even if he sits out a third of the season with injuries once again. That being said, a $10.5MM salary puts Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the highest paycheck on the club next year. To put it another way, it’s approximately 12% of the team’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s more than fair to wonder if the Rays would rather spread that money across multiple roster spots rather than give it all to one injury-prone player. In other words, it’s fair to wonder if Lowe will be wearing a new uniform by Opening Day next March.
Tampa Bay has a long track of trading veteran players once their salaries start to increase, even when the team is still planning to contend. As the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst finish since 2017, and coming off a season in which they sold big at the trade deadline, it seems even more believable that they would consider trading Lowe. Furthermore, the Rays have multiple internal options who could replace Lowe in the lineup (even if they can’t necessarily replace his production). One of Junior Caminero or José Caballero could potentially slide over to second base, while Christopher Morel could slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Walls could replace Caballero at shortstop. Former top prospect Curtis Mead is another infielder to keep in mind.
Then again, the fact that the Rays didn’t trade Lowe at last year’s deadline could be an indication that they’d like to hold onto him for 2025. After all, they might be cheap, but they also love a good value play. If the Rays shop Lowe around and come to the conclusion that he is severely undervalued around the league, they might prefer to hold onto him.
Back in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, “I don’t think the industry and even our own fans understand the impact [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he might be hesitant to part with his All-Star second baseman. Neander recently expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “most valuable” as a second baseman but that the team could continue to give him some time at first base and DH next season to have his powerful bat in the lineup as often as possible.
It’s also worth mentioning that Lowe has another team option for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which means Tampa Bay could keep him around for the start of next season and still have the flexibility to trade him at a later date. What’s more, the Rays have numerous other trade candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the only player they can flip if they’re facing pressure to cut payroll in light of the damage to Tropicana Field or the team’s current lack of a broadcast deal.
First baseman Yandy Díaz and closer Pete Fairbanks are two of the top 10 players on MLBTR’s list of the top 35 trade candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) will be making $10MM next year, and he has a $12MM team option for the following season. His contract also includes a $1MM trade assignment bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is set to collect $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2026. One more name to keep in mind is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the same star power as Díaz or even Fairbanks, but he has proven himself to be a capable mid-rotation starter over the last year and a half. He made just $1.85MM this past season, but he is projected to earn close to a $3MM raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
Another factor to consider is the market for second baseman this offseason, both in terms of free agents and trade candidates. Only two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One could easily imagine why teams would prefer Lowe over either of them, especially on such a team-friendly contract. However, things could get more complicated if any teams are seriously pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a primary second baseman as recently as 2023, while both Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to switch positions.
As for the trade market, second basemen who could be on the move include Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s top trade candidates list), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). However, none of those players seem particularly likely to be dealt, and they all fill different niches than Lowe. Funnily enough, all four bat left-handed, but Lowe is the only one who offers proven, middle-of-the-order power against both left- and right-handed pitching.
So, do you think the Rays will hold onto Lowe this winter? Or will they have a new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Mariners be getting one of these dudes. Might be Lowe if not Kim
Rays will trade him for a couple decent pitching prospects, at least one of whom they develop into a star, and a position prospect who becomes a solid regular. I rather doubt they keep him, unless teams are all just cheap with their offers. Even then, I expect him to leave by the trade deadline assuming he’s healthy.
The pitcher they turn into a star is then unbelievably productive for 1.5 seasons then goes down with arm problems and surgeries for 1.5 years. Rinse and repeat.
Wrong side of 30 and a lot of decline since the age 26 career year.
Nolan Gorman would be an interesting target for the Phillies. Though the Phillies could just sign Kim or Adames.
I would go that route rather than Bohm (and the outfield – other than Marsh – should go without saying for everyone)
The Cardinals are not trading Gorman. I also don’t understand why the Phillies would sign Kim or Adames.
The Phillies already got bohm and turner and stott and Harper in the infield
The only area they can address (which they don’t have to) is center field
With the way the Phillies are constructed I was thinking a Bohm-Arenado deal would make sense. The Cardinals want to dump salary and it would seem the Phillies wouldn’t lose a moment’s sleep at moving on from Bohm. Throw in a few extra bodies to balance things out and everybody walks away happy.
Braves should pick him up then play him in LF
They’ll try to trade him. But thing is; who would want him with that injury history?
Mets. Mets need LH bat. Mets have future 2b men in the minors. Not sure McNeil will still be on the Mets in 2025.
I want him on the Angels. 107 or so games and 2.4 WAR? Heck yeah. Rotate him through 1B, 2B, and DH to keep him healthy.
There’s a handful of teams that could use him, but pause. Struggles staying on the field plus trying to predict what part of season he’s healthy is unknown.
Diaz and Lowe for Logan Gilbert. Which side needs to add to that deal and how much? Considering team control arb prices etc.
But but but what about the Cookie Store?
Think of the Cookie Store!
if he is traded Sweet and Lowe will be no more….SMH
Lowe will be a fallback for teams who missed out on a free agent 2B but his salary is what he’s worth so the return will be minimal.
Of course, TB could just ride with him and trade him during the season when injuries and other team needs arise.
Could see SF or SEA as options.
Yeah, I don’t think this is an accurate assessment of Lowe’s worth. Rays may or may not trade him, but he’s a 2-4 fWAR player (depending on how much 2B he plays as opposed to 1B/DH) and making $10MM per year. By every value system I have seen, he has surplus value as a 2-4 fWAR player on a $10MM per year deal. He won’t return a top 100 prospect, but the Rays will get 1-3 good pieces for him.
Rays will ride with lowe and diaz to begin the year, if we’re out at the deadline then both will be gone
Nah. One or both will get traded this Winter for sure. My money is on Diaz at 67% likelihood, and Lowe at 50-50.
@mp I see Diaz getting traded this off-season. Lowe at the deadline I’d the Rays are pretty trash this season which I kind of expect them to be.
Rays should get more for position players in the Winter, but yeah, your plan is definitely possible. Diaz should be in demand with at least 5 teams, and I suspect the Rays will have no trouble moving him. They might hold out hope that Lowe has a healthy 2025 and can get more for him at the deadline. We will see.
Can he play 1st? Pittsburgh maybe.
74 comments and this one was the only one that made sense lol
Him for a couple borderline top 10 prospects. Maybe that second baseman that’s struggling to develop, temarr johnson I think is his name
I don’t know who “he” is, but if you’re talking about B.Lowe, he played a lot of 1B for the Rays in 2024.
Lowe played 11 games at 1B. He was the DH in 37 and at 2B in 58.
Lowe is extremely overated. I would not want him on my team. Hes essensialy Dan Ugla but a lot worse
This is a really bad take. For one, Uggla averaged nearly 2.5 fWAR per season over the course of his 10 year career, and 3.4 fWAR per season if you ignore the last 3 years of his career when he shouldn’t have been playing. As insults go, this isn’t a good one. Lowe has averaged less fWAR per season than Uggla (2.17 fWAR per season), but 2 of his 7 seasons have been 1/3 long seasons through no fault of his own (his rookie year (when he wasn’t called up until August) and the 60 game pandemic season) and of course he has injury issues. Still, he managed to put up 2.2 fWAR last year playing in only 60% of games (and playing hurt in probably 1/2 the others) and he has played his entire career at a 4 fWAR level on a per game played basis. Lowe can be acquired fairly cheap because of his injury issues, and the acquiring team could strike gold if Lowe manages to stay healthy for the entire year. Even if he suffers his normal minor injuries, he’s a safe bet to put up 2-3 fWAR, which is a great return for a player on a 1 year $10MM contract. Only someone with no knowledge of the game would suggest Uggla or Lowe were bad players.
@mp2891 the issue with your arguement is that you overvalue WAR. In my opinin, WAR overvalues defense by a wide margin. Their hitting is comparable, but I’d say Uggla was a better hitter than Lowe. Lowe is a black hole in most lineups. Strikes out a lot, low BA, all the makings of a non clutch player that smacks that occasional garbage time homerun when the game is already decided at that point. Hard pass for me
Lowe is a 125 OPS+ hitter and he hit for a 121 OPS+ last season. 21% above average. Last season late in close games and with RISP anytime in the game he became a monster with 162 OPS+/.902 OPS and 157 OPS+/.971 OPS. He is not a blackhole in any lineup and he is uber clutch. His problem is none of the things you mentioned. Its health.
The only blackhole I can find is the one between your ears.
@outinleftfield with 2 outs and RISP, hes batting .175 with an OPS of .667. Thats clutch? I don’t think so
LFG – I chose WAR because it is an easy metric to use to describe a player’s value. A comment section is not the place for a deep dive analysis of a player. Anyway, if you prefer players with high batting averages and low power, or guys who have no deficiencies but cost a lot more than Lowe (in salary or trade cost), then all the power to you. Lowe is a pretty sure bet to hit around 120 wRC+ and put up 2-3 fWAR next year for the bargain price of $10MM. I don’t see what’s not to like. In fact, consider this – Only Houston received at least 120 wRC+ from the 2B position in 2024 and only 16 teams received 2.0 fWAR or better from the 2B position. Lowe should have plenty of suitors if the Rays make him available.
You said “player that smacks that occasional garbage time homerun when the game is already decided at that point”
I just showed you that in a late and close games and with runners in scoring position he is awesome. Once someone shows you that you are full of it you want to spin to something else unrelated? Ok. Like I said, the only blackhole is the one between your ears.
This ^^^
This site should have downvotes.
Miller (& a prospect) for Littel & Lowe sounds like DiPoto move. Team’s not signing Torres unless it’s a bargoon… Wouldn’t be surprised if they bid on conforto too
B.Miller would be an excellent return for Littell and Lowe alone (without the prospect), but I don’t think the Rays will be looking to trade for a starting ML pitcher if they trade Littell. They will still have 6 good starting pitchers with ML experience, plus another 2-3 AAA arms in need of call ups next year, after they trade Littell. Still, if Seattle is willing to part with Miller for Lowe and Littell, the Rays will probably say yes. Just too good an offer to refuse.
Miller’s worth way more than that in a trade. Solid young starting pitchers making pre-arbitration salaries are extremely valuable.
I doubt the Rays trade Lowe in the off-season, mostly because they have no competent replacement at 2B. I see them trading Diaz first. Maybe if the Rays are truly bad (and I expect them to be), they be more inclined to trade Lowe at the trade deadline.
You never know. They could give 2B to Mead, Basabe, Morel, Palacios, Cabby, etc… Lot of guys with 2B experience.
@mp
I don’t think they trust Mead or Morel or Basabe to play there defensively. The key word in my statement is ‘competent’. They could plug anyone there, but if they do would that hurt the team’s overall performance? I believe it would.
They’ll have a competitive team on the field as usual. Their pitching will be much more healthy and younger guys seasoned. If they trade these guys – it will be in attempt to still put a quality product on the field this coming season. Why so pessimistic?
@whiffa
I don’t believe in the offense. At all. Yeah maybe JLowe bounces back and Aranda improves. But I don’t trust any of those guys to actually get better. They keep giving Mead’s place in the lineup to cheap vets. Catching is still a black hole.
Pitching will probably be good, but I expect the Rays to ship off one or two expensive guys to cut payroll (depending on TV deals and stadium issues). Diaz and Springs are at the top of my trade list. Maybe BLowe too.
In the end, I expect the Rays to trim payroll and get rid of some productive players more than usual due to the unknown stadium situation and lack of TV money.
I’m not sure if he’ll be traded, BUT… I hope he is. He’s a perfect fit for my Braves and although we don’t need a 2B, I believe he can play OF at a high enough lvl if I’m not mistaken, so I’d love to throw him in left and call this lineup near complete (just need to replace Arcia)….
I was in Tampa for a couple years, listened to the Rays games everyday, what the hitting coach said in the article is spot on, lineup wasn’t the same without Lowe and it was noticeable and this was a team that still rostered Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Isaac Parades and Wander Franco. Josh Lowe also a good player on the Rays, also misses a lot of time due to injury, but possibly excluding Franco, Id say Brandon Lowe was the lynch pin in those Rays lineups.
Brendon needs to be traded to pay for a new roof.