Today's mailbag gets into where Corbin Burnes might go, why we write about players' salaries, whether Juan Soto will opt out, how the Brewers might sort out their outfield, chances of the Dodgers signing various free agents, and what's next for the A's.
Please note that this mailbag was initially published shortly before news of the Cody Bellinger trade broke. I'm sure we'll get into that trade in the next mailbag, but since some of the Bellinger material in the mailbag was usurped by the trade, I've added several bonus Astros questions and answers to the end.
Joel asks:
Why is there not even a shred of a suggestion anywhere that the Mets have interest in Corbin Burnes? If they were willing to pay dinosaurs like Scherzer and Verlander, why not pay Burnes? Otherwise, they'll lose a lot of games 7-5.
Tony asks:
Corbin Burnes will sign with ?
Bud asks:
As a Giant fan it’s a little concerning hearing the rumors of Corbin Burns nearing a deal with the team and then a week or more of quiet. I was hoping for more moves…
Neil asks:
Will Giants sign Burnes or will it be another pitcher?
David Stearns was the GM of the Brewers when the team drafted Burnes in the fourth round out of Saint Mary's College of California in 2016. With the Mets needing three starters this winter, it was natural to expect Stearns to be interested. While it's true Stearns topped out at $15.5MM for a free agent starter with the Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin in 2016), it's also true that the Mets have way more money than the Brewers.
Even a comparison to Stearns' 2023-24 offseason would not be fair, because that was, as my colleague Darragh McDonald wrote, "a sort of bridge year." Hence the relatively affordable additions of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Adrian Houser.
To date, the Mets have made the ownership-driven decision to sign Juan Soto to a record-shattering contract, while Stearns has added Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas on two-year deals (if Holmes uses his opt-out) to help fill out the rotation. Kodai Senga barely pitched this year, and David Peterson's 21 starts matched a career high. Paul Blackburn is a back of the rotation type who has battled injuries, including October back surgery. The rotation lacks reliability, which would likely be solved by Burnes.
Stearns seems more interested in the trade market of late, showing interest in Garrett Crochet and Luis Castillo this month. Speculatively, they could go after Dylan Cease as well. On December 7th, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote that the Mets had interest in Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, and Nick Pivetta. Around that time, Tim Healey of Newsday wrote that the Mets were not in on Max Fried and are not expected to land Burnes. It would seem that Stearns simply does not like the return on investment of huge pitching contracts (at least for the players available this winter) and does not want to spend $250MM+ on Burnes.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Bellinger for Stroman is probably fair. Not sure the Cubs want Stroman back but thats fair and the Cubs could spend a bunch on their bullpen which is definitely their biggest weakness.
Bellinger for Stroman is not fair. Cubs would not take Stroman under any circumstances. Stroman is a great guy in the community but Stroman burned his bridges with ownership complaining about not getting an extension.
Conforto got $17 million. Belli provides superior bat skills and vastly superior defense to Conforto and offerss multi-positional defensive skills that has to be worth $20 million a year in the current market, a no-brainer.
So may the Cubs needs to send $10 to $12.5 million along with Bellinger, and receive a non-name prospect that is not even in team top thirty rankings.
Then with the $20 million in salary savings, Cubs could sign two relievers, Kittridge and Minter, or splurge all of it on Tanner Scott.
Because injuries happen, I prefer that the Cubs keep Suzuki and Belli. I actually think the Cubs can stop acquisitions now, just add a couple of back inning arms. Or maybe Assad, Brown and Horton can fill those back-inning roles, though Horton will be a starter by 2026. No give-aways of Suzuki or even Belli.
Bellinger has negative trade value. So does Stroman. It’s fair. If Bellinger was worth more than his contract he would have opted out.
BITA
Read my post again. There is substantial demand for Bellinger is theCubs chip in $12.5 ,million.
There is not a substantial demand for Stroman with the Yankes chipping in $10 million. At least I doubt it.
Stroman makes much less than Bellinger. I don’t know if the Cubs would be interested necessarily, but value-wise it’s a decent deal for them. My guess, because they are trying to push the Yankees to take more of Belli’s contract, they are trying to cut that money so they can go after someone else, and as a result taking back another bad contract wouldn’t be of interest.
Instead of the Cubs chipping in 12.5 million they can simply take Stroman. And that’s what i suggested…….
Who is liking your comments so fast? That’s odd.
“Pete’s View” and “Robert-5.”
Thank you Pete and Robert, but BITA why do you care?
As long as the contract they take on is one where they have a need already i think it would make sense. It’s hard to trade for a reliever which is what they need most but they could use another starter.
That comment was active for less than a minute and 2 likes already?
It’s cool. Take it easy……Robert……
No way is Bellinger worth $20M. He’s worth $15.5M-$17.5M. Conforto got $17M because it’s a one year deal. Bellinger could probably get a little more than that if he signed a 1-year as a FA.
But he and Conforto are closer in value than you think. Not that I’m valuing Conforto very high, I’m not. It’s just that Bellinger is only moderately better than Conforto, but hamstrung with that deal with the opt-out with a significant cost attached.
The Cubs need to eat $10M for 2025 alone, along with another $8M or so, if he opts in for 2026. Not sure they’re willing to do that, but I wouldn’t take him short of that if I were the Yankees.
Jean
We have dicussed this before. I probably saw 40 complete Giants games on tv last year (just a couple in person) and you follow them even closer than me. I was unimpressed with Conforto as a batter and fielder. Belli as a RF and 1B are options than Conforto simply does not offer. I stand by my statement but respect that your opinion differs. It changes nothing about the silliness of the Cubs taking Stroman back. They would rather have Mark Leiter Jr. back at the same salary to fill an actual need.
No one was happier to see Conforto’s tenure come to close than me. But much of that was he wasn’t suited for Oracle. The Dodgers don’t make a ton of mistakes in their signings and they see something in him.
I’ve also seen Bellinger plenty of times, and have felt he was overrated. I have debated with others that suggest the Giants trade for him, which I think to be a terrible idea.
Both Conforto and Bellinger have a career 120 OPS+. Bellinger, despite the upside, also has greater downside as well. A true trick-or-treat player, whose inconsistency would be maddening if I were a Cubs fan.
Belli is at 2 War per 162 games in the last 4 years and doesn’t play that many games. He is not worth 20 Mil let alone 25 Mil.
Calling Conforto replacement level, I’m guessing off the top of your head, shows that you haven’t looked at any data, He’s a 2 WAR player. His 120 career OPS+ swung from a high of 148 to a low 95. He had a 116 OPS+ last season
Bellinger is a 3 WAR player. His 120 career OPS+ swung from a high of 167 to a low of 44. His OPS+ last season was 111. Clearly he’s inconsistent. Higher ceiling, but a lower floor. The difference in WAR is mostly defensive value. He’s the better of the two, but a lot closer than you think.
This has nothing to do with trying to justify anything. You could stop being dishonest, and stop trying to deflect. The debate was never about which is the better of the two. It was about quantifying how much better. I’m comparing the data between the two, which indicates your take was just plain wrong.
Conforto was hugely hyped when he played for the Mets after hitting two homers in a WS game as a rookie. During spring training the NYPost would run articles speculating whether this was the year he would get the MVP. Beautiful swing. Unfortunately, he pretty reliably grounded out to 2nd when there were runners in scoring position. Big disappointment.
Hitting 2 HRs, or striking out, in a WS game is irrelevant in player assessment. That’s not just a small sample, it’s like a nano-sample. Barry Bonds was thought to be an under-performer in the PS, until he wasn’t.
The hype is also irrelevant. Conforto still has a career 120 OPS+, roughly 20% better than league average.
Like I said earlier, I wasn’t sad to see him go, but much of his disappointing production in SF was from not being suited to Oracle. Last season he hit 17 HRs with an .852 OPS on the road. He hit 3 HRs with a .632 OPS at home.
@russian. Got you.
Please tell me how the Yankees are fixing this offense. When is Bellinger happening? Any chance they also get Nico Hoerner?
Rex
Hoerner is likely staying put unless the Cubs are blown away with an offer. Doubt the Cubs would want to debut both Shaw and Triantos throughout 2025.
No way Cubs trade to acquire Tucker for one year then open holes at 2b and 3b and/or hold onto three RFs… even for the Cubs that makes no sense!
Good luck trying to extend him as it will need to start at 10/350 and that may be too low. About 8 teams will be in kidding for him in 2026 that could see his tag go as high as $400-450 million!
@mlb.
I just copied part of the article you didn’t read.
You don’t want “Bellinger” happening. Not if you’re a Yankees fan anyway.
Absolutely love your answer to why is MLBTR posting players salaries. And yes I’m one of the guys that subscribes for the analysis related to players salaries. Unfortunately our favorite teams success is very much related to how much said team spends on salaries, so it is an extremely relevant topic for MLB fans.
The assumption that the Yankees can simply “get Nico Hoerner” or sign Christian Walker ignores critical factors like team needs, trade assets, and luxury tax considerations. Such questions bypass analysis of the Yankees’ existing farm system, organizational priorities, and the broader context of MLB free agency and trade markets, offering little insight into the actual challenges faced by front offices in making strategic, long-term decisions.
It’s refreshing to read baseball gossip written by an intelligent person who knows how to write. Lots of blogs are written by what seem to be 15 year olds who would get a C in their writing class. Thank you! The lull in free agent signings or significant trades over the past week is killing me!
@Joel. Ain’t that the truth!
No Padres news because there’s well, no Padres news.
Full reverse.
Last season w/Pads up a gm in playoffs showboating there machismo “meet me in the parking lot !,” quickly produced TWO shutouts rammed down there throat. l like the Pads but Dodgers are in some of there heads Manny 4 1, laid big turds in 2 most important gms of yr, flat, lifeless, where’s player leadership besides acting like slighted homie ?