On the heels of an overnight signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. What’s next for the Mets?
The Mets reportedly signed right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year deal worth $34MM that includes an opt-out after the 2025 season yesterday. In doing so, they filled the first of three rotation spots that were vacated by the departures of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana in free agency. Montas, who struggled last year to a 4.84 ERA and 4.71 FIP in 150 2/3 innings of work between the Reds and Brewers, is hardly a surefire impact addition to their starting five but should eat innings at the back of the rotation with the upside to provide additional value — not unlike Manaea was viewed at the time of his deal with New York last year.
While the Mets are sure to remain zeroed in on Juan Soto, there’s little question that the club is going to continue to pursue rotation upgrades. Will president of baseball operations David Stearns and his front office use their financial might to land a surefire ace like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, or does the club plan to operate similarly to last winter on the rotation market while focusing their largest additions on a lineup that stands at risk of losing Pete Alonso?
2. Is there more coming from the Cubs?
The Cubs entered the offseason surrounded by rumors they could look to add to the top of their rotation this winter, but they’ve subsequently reversed course to focus on middle tiers of the starting pitching market. That ostensible shift in focus seemingly led to today’s overnight deal for southpaw Matthew Boyd, who reportedly signed on with the club for $29MM over two years. The Cubs were generally expected to look to add players to their rotation and bullpen this winter while also searching for an upgrade behind the plate. They’ve at least nominally addressed all three of those positions already this winter by adding Boyd, Eli Morgan, and Matt Thaiss. Is there more coming from the Cubs, or does the remainder of their offseason hinge on working out a Cody Bellinger trade?
3. When will the market for QO starters heat up?
One quirk of the pitching market movement this winter is that it’s been focused exclusively on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation. While many of the starters expected to land multi-year deals this winter received a qualifying offer last month, Montas and Boyd join Yusei Kikuchi and Blake Snell among the list of starters who did not. Some unencumbered free agents such as Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi remain, but the options on that front are dwindling. Will teams continue to shy away from qualified free agent starters until later in the offseason, or could the coming days spur some activity on the other side of the starting pitching market?
Montas seems like overpay but his value is tied to two things: innings and no QO making him more valuable to any organization looking for SP depth. I don’t think the QO will hurt Manaea but it wouldn’t surprise me if Severino languishes and ends up back at CitiField on a 2-year deal for ~$45m-50m and maybe with an option. L
Mets will aim higher for 1 of Burnes/Fried/Flaherty/Buehler after learning whether they land Soto first. This is just an appetizer.
No way Severino gets $$22.5m+ average. If he can’t find a better deal, I can see him signing a two year $36m max with a $6m buyout. Thus, he saves face on rejecting the QO.
Pretty much all of us were at least thinking no way that Boyd gets $15 million AAV. Maybe $11-12 million, but not $15 million. Yet here we are.
Boyd: One injury away from being the pitcher he’s consistently been. Too bad, when healthy the guy can pitch. Even so, not likely to pitch even 75 innings.
He got it. 3 year/$67m.
One from Burnes/Field and one from Flaherty/Buehler would fill out the Mets rotation nicely.
Buehler is not aiming higher. He has had 2 TJ surgeries and last season he was terrible.
Like Pizza Rolls, before Filet Mignon…
I would rather have paid the extra money for Eovaldi. I think this is a terrible signing. I would rather have saved $15M or so and given Butto or Megill a chance for the 5th spot (and I know many won’t agree w/ me on that).
You bring up money spent like it matters even a little bit.
It does… they’re not going to run a $350M payroll every year, and the money also matters because they could have allocated the money not spent on montas for someone a little more reliable, like Eovaldi as an example.
Butto pitched 118.1 innings of really good baseball between AAA and MLB last season. He’s 26 so he should be in the prime of his career.
Kid deserves a shot.
Montas and Boyd contracts both seem like an overpay to me.
Supply and demand. This is not difficult to understand.
It’s the same everyyear, pitchers start being signed, a couple seem high people call them overpays, then they end up being inline with the markert.
That does not happen every year. Many years the pitchers who sign early are overpaid and the pitchers who sign later are better deals.
@dugmet the QO shouldn’t even matter in this case. Both Burnes and Soto should be their top targets and both have the QO attached. This offseason is the one to spend and disregard the QO since our draft picks are going to suck regardless due to us being in the luxury tax
Yes, but you can’t ignore it on the lower level FA. Not worth the penalties.
QO matters when teams are looking to add back end SP depth. The signing is NOT indicative Mets are not pursuing higher tier FAs worth the QO penalty.
The Kikuchi and Montas deals seems to indicate a dollar premium on pitchers not attached to QO’s.
And I understand it on the Kikuchi signing. The Angels desperately need all the draft picks and international signing money we can get.
Maybe an intern in the Mets FO accidentally added an extra zero to Montas’ contract?
That whole draft pick compensation is so overvalued. If you want a top player, you don’t worry about that. Meanwhile, no, the Cubs probably won’t be adding any more starting pitching. And anything hinging on Belli is just silly. Cubs have stupid money as a big market but don’t act like one.
For top players, yes, but not for some of this midrange players. Manaea is a good sp, but I’m sure that QO will make some teams stay away. I know the Mets shy away from signing QO players bc of it. Hence, this terrible Montas signing.
Agree, don’t mind losing picks for guys like Soto, Adames, Fried, Burnes and maybe even Walker. But no way for Severino, Pivetta, Teoscar, Manaea.
The draft pick nonsense should be done away with or make it apply to all free agents based on value of contracts.
Exactly.
The Angels lost a second round pick to sign the shell of Thor on a one year deal. One freaking year.
Ma4170: I think some teams would rather have players who they know what they can do instead of taking a chance on draft picks, which are unknown quantities as far as panning out to one day possibly being mlb-caliber players.
Sure, but there are likely others who want as many picks as possible to strengthen the farm. I just wouldn’t want to lose them over marginal players.
A pitcher with a 4.84 ERA gets an opt out? It should be a team option with player achievements that can make it guaranteed. A lot of money for a pitcher with an ERA of almost 5.
I think there are other things you lose besides draft picks, like international player pool money. If you think you have a chance at Sasaki, you want to hold onto as much of that as you can.
Correct you lose either 500K or 1M in international bonus money depending if you pay luxury tax.
Aside from possibly trading Bellinger, it’ll be supplemental moves from Hoyer would be my guess. I’m not sure the Cubs have what it takes to beat the Brewers and win the division. In my mind, the favorites to win the NL Central are the Brewers, I don’t have confidence in the Cubs beating them.
I think a Bellinger Castillo trade makes a ton of sense for both teams.
The Cubs need pen help. With a better bullpen they could have won 90 games. I don’t think this is the Cardinals year but I wouldn’t count them out. The Brewers i don’t think are as good as they played last year.
What specifically about the Brewers makes you think they’ll take a step back?
I just don’t think they are that good even if the same team returned in 2025. But Adames is most likely leaving and it sounds like Williams might be too. I give the Brewers credit for their 2024 success I just don’t think they will repeat it.
That’s fair. Adames is a big hole in the lineup to plug, to be sure. Williams did also miss most of last year, so his production is likely able to be replicated if not improved on. If they do trade him, don’t forget to factor in the very-likely MLB-level return. Jackson Chourio should only be getting better and Brandon Woodruff will be back at some point to add some wins. By no means are the Brewers competing with the Dodgers, Phillies, or Braves for the best roster in the NL, but just looking at the Central is a bit of a different story. They’re the favorite until the Cubs or Reds do something big.
Truly I could see any team in the central winning the division in 2025. I got no problems calling them the favorites I just don’t think they will win the division next year.
It amazes me that the Cubs would pay about 15M AAV for a guy like Boyd and not pay the additional 7 or so million per year for a guy like Eovaldi, who is much more proven, durable, and has an excellent track record in the.postseason (not that the Cubs will be in the tournament).
It’s infuriating and Hoyer has been doing it his entire tenure. He made a couple nice flyer bullpen pickups and he thinks he’s some baseball genius. Go get Fried, Burnes, snell, Soto type player and supplement with the damn farm system. They have 5-6 major league ready arms in the minors that can fill Boyd’s roll for league minimum. The genius may have accidentally went over luxury tax last year too. Get a real gm.
What don’t you understand about Hoyer receiving his annual spending budget from the owner. He can only spend whatever amount, he is allowed to spend.
I think you’re missing my point. They have a budget and they blow it on mediocre players. No kidding he has a budget. He fills it up with a bunch of average and never even explores elite. Thats the point. Use your prospects sign some difference makers. What’s their budget this off-season? My guess pushing close to the salary cap like past years. How about go after 1 superstar instead of 2-3 over priced mid tier players that you can probably find the same production in the minors. Sign Burnes and fortify the bullpen with Ben Brown, Wesneski and Kilian. I’d love that. Let’s see what Shaw and Caissie can do.
Soto is signing with the Red Sox!
Cubs are in a spot w Bellinger, if they trade him they need another bat.
Id consider trading Nico, put Belli at 1B/RF and try to live w Busch at 2B/DH then work Shaw in when he’s ready. Also Shaw can be insurance if Paredes doesn’t come around. Caisse needs to be getting work at 1B also.
Trade the farm for Castillo and Raleigh and hope it’s enough to make a run.?
If Dodgers land Sasaki it’s basically game over for the NL for the next 5-7yrs.
robert-5: I don’t see Castillo and Raleigh playing for the cubs until they’re on the down side of their careers. That’s how we do things in Chicago (both sides, though that would be a step up for the Sox). The cubs are pretty much stuck with Bellinger’s albatross of a contract. But if he plays like he did in ’23 next season, his contract will look all rosy again.
As a NYM fan I’d like to see them sign Buehler and Sasaki
NO interest in Fried OR Flaherty.
but Bieber, Eovaldi, Manaea and Quintana (2 year should cost less than other FAs and a LH) would be good additions IMO.
Means IF healthy.
Also possibly Burnes (instead of one of the 2 above) at a reasonable price and length of contract If he insists on 7 years I’d let some other team sign him
SOO Important to bolster bullpen with 2 or 3 solid relievers. Butto might be used in BP as setup instead of a starter
A lonsghot trade for Helsley or Miller (OAK)
I want to keep our best prospects – ____maybe trade 1 or 2
Need (1 of AJ Minter or Tanner Scott), Raley, Junis, Turnbull, possibly Yarbrough, Moore or Smyly as LHRP
Expect MUCHO activity in Dallas TX at Winter meetings.
SOTO makes his choice and then many other players follow up make a deal.
LGM!!!
Why not Fried, he is a good one. It’s not going to be the same without seeing him in a Braves uniform. I just keep hoping he continues with us.
YaGotta…: Why would you take a chance on a P coming off of tjs over a healthy, higher level pitcher like Fried, coming off a very good season, or Flaherty? The Mets have the money but, other than Soto, I’m sure Stearns will reign in Cohen’s ridiculous spending which is probably one reason he was brought in.
Interesting I’d go Fried or Flathery over all you mentioned tbh.
The pitcher, Martinez?, who accepted the QO must be kicking himself after seeing the Montas deal. Innings eater? Lmao
Why would he be kicking himself? He only has to sign a one year deal at $15 million next year to equal Montas.
He had a MUCH better season and would’ve gotten a lot more than Montas imo
He’s primarily been a reliever and three years older, so I’m not sure I’d agree that he would of gotten “much more” than Montas.
People have obviously have not grown accustomed to how much major league veteran pitchers are getting paid now.
Mets offseason: Soto: $55
Alonso: $25
Buehler $25
Montas $17
T.Scott $12
Winker $8
Trade McNeil and Marte for relievers
Trade J.Williams, Baty and Tidwell for Crochet
Rotation: Buehler, Crochet, Senga, Montas and Peterson
jvent: A little low on Soto, a little high on Buehler. The rest seem in line except for Crochet. You’re overestimating Getz’s track record of getting garbage for good players, and he’ll do the same with Crochet. See Kopech/Fedde/Pham trade for Vargas.
The Mets’ patchwork approach to filling their rotation reeks of desperation masked as strategy, while the Cubs’ pivot to mid-tier signings screams of settling for mediocrity. Meanwhile, the market’s hesitation on QO starters reflects a league too scared to invest in proven talent, opting instead for bargains and half-measures.
The QO creates distortions when it’s applied to mediocre/midrange pitchers. It’s not going to stop a team with cash and a need for a 1-2 starter. I think they should dump it in the next CBA, but the owners love it. Having seen Montas (briefly) after Cashman so terribly bungled the trade for him, I can’t understand why the Mets would pay so much (after all, it’s a rich salary and then the Tax) for so little.
@Mikenmn
It’s adorable that you think the QO is the root of the problem here. The real issue isn’t the system, it’s teams like the Mets and Cubs treating their pitching rotations like a game of roulette. The QO might cause distortions, but that’s a symptom, not the disease. The Mets paying big for mediocrity? They’re just part of a much larger trend of teams throwing cash at temporary fixes instead of building something sustainable. Don’t blame the QO — blame the teams that keep making
“Adorable” cracked me up. Well done.
Head to the nearest ENT center and get your nose checked.
@sviscusi
It’s cute that you resort to personal attacks when faced with an actual argument. Maybe if you spent less time worrying about my nose and more on the broader issues surrounding these teams’ strategies, you’d see that the real problem is much bigger than you’re letting on. But hey, keep deflecting—it’s easier than addressing the real critique.
People said that last season. Turns out Stearns knew what he was doing and we didn’t.
@Pads Fans
He doesn’t. He’s also cooked.
Sure. Whatever you say. It wasn’t like the 3 guys he signed last season came out and put up a 3.66 ERA or anything like that even though people said they all sucked.
But it is adorable that you think your opinion matters more than Stearn’s opinion does.
In other news, I read today that Rob Manfred is considering the “Golden At-Bat” rule, where teams are given one time a game to send any player from their team to the plate.
The MLB is trying to compete with Savanah Bananas.
“MLB,” not “the MLB”