The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.
It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.
For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.
Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.
There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.
Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).
The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.
Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.
All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.
It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.
There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.
You can’t really blame them, being a team with so little income and a family ownership group that is barely making ends meet.
Right?
Cubs need a Catcher. The Cardinals need to move Contreras. They want him back????
Not ever.
Not one time has anyone in the Cardinals organization said they weren’t focused on putting a playoff contender on the field in 2025. As a fan I wouldn’t mind if they traded away a bunch of guys and did a full rebuild but the organization has never suggested they will do anything of the sort.
The Cubs need a number 2 starter who is right handed. They could probably use a catcher although getting Thaiss might keep them from doing that. And they most definitely need late inning pen help. Eovaldi, Jansen and Sewald I think are who I picked them to sign. Perhaps a different reliever there are a lot of relievers they could go after.
They have said they are spending less
is porter hodge full time CL for cubs now?
It seems he will get every opportunity to be the closer. He was really good, but I think they should sign a plan B just in case he regresses.
only 23 yrs old, had a great rookie season
neris sorta came in handy in 2024 when alzolay imploded
but then neris sorta imploded too lol
which is why hodge had a chance and took adv of it to blossom into the 9th inning guy. his minor lg #s left alot to be desired but he was nearly flawless in the majors
Same Cubs.
As of 4:43pm on 11/22/24, the only Cubs regular position players that could possibly be traded are Busch and Paredes. Nico MAY be on the fringe of that group, but his surgery throws a cloud over his value. Hoyer, with his weird fetish for NTC’s and ultra-conservative aversion to spending more than the price of a Costco hotdog on a ballplayer, have severely limited the Cubs player-acquistion options this winter.
@cubsaremid:
Blaming Hoyer for not spending is dumb.
Hoyer is allowed to spend, only up to the levels that the owner allows him to spend.
Plus Ricketts has said many times, he wants to build something ‘sustainable’. You either do that by spending extremely smart – or by building through your farm system.
The Cubs currently have a boatload of talent on the MLB doorstep. They need to give them an opportunity to show IF Hoyer achieved his goals.
Ideally Nico would bring back a valuable arm, in a trade. And Hoyer spends close to the cap.
I find it amazing how many people think that GMs set the budget, and not the owner.
Cubs have about 70 million to spend to get to the Luxury Tax( Spotrac) the way I figure. According to Spotrac it’s 86 million but I have yet to figure out how they came up with that number. And that’s WITH Bellinger. How is Hoyer impeded from acquiring the talent the Cubs need with how few holes they really have? The team on the field is basically set. All you really need is some backup guys, A decent Catcher( And not Contreras) and a couple of high leverage arms for the bullpen. Maybe a decent Starter. If you can’t do that with 70 million, Go work for the government. You’d fit right in. I don’t know who or what this guy Morgan is but Thaiss is just not the real answer but he’s basically free. I didn’t particularly care for the return for Morgan as Rosario was a favorite if mine but the Cubs scouts are pretty good so I’ll wait and see. He still has an option left and 3 years of control so it’s not all bad I guess. But he can’t be the only add. Hopefully Hoyer has learned his lesson of the last 2 years and not spending on the pen. He has a few more options already than he did last year so like I said it shouldn’t cost a ton. If he can’t do it, He shouldn’t be rehired.
Cubs don’t want to win. Stupid fans come out no matter what, so why should they?
That probably is true.
I hear Cardinals fans saying the same thing but it’s really not true. When the team isn’t good the fans stay away. Truly I don’t care for all the front running fans the Cardinals have accumulated over the years. I respect the Cubs fans who show up win or lose.
Simple thinking, old whiney fan comment.
Hoyer is living in Theo Epsteins shadow and together with owner Tom Ricketts make Cub fans sick. They say they want to contend but they have little desire to actually win again. They’d be excited to win the division but aren’t willing to fight for it . But hey they aren’t the White Sox
That is like being the runner up in a ugly contest.
The problem there is that Chicago is the most intense and understanding sports city I’ve ever been in. Those fans deserve better.
Of the 5 professional teams, only the Cubs can play .500 ball.
So while the fans should have more competitive teams to follow they keep showing up at games; if home watching them on TV; and if out watching them on some sort of overhead media device. Not a lot of incentive for the owners to put pressure on the FO’s of the Cubs, Sox, Bears, Black Hawks, or Bulls to play for a championship else find employment elsewhere.
That’s an easy thing to say, and a lot of fans say that about their teams.
But I am guessing that many times, the issue with losing teams is a lack of FO talent, not a lack of desire to win.
Just for the record, the Cubs have signed free agents with a total salary of > $100M for 2024. That’s pretty competitive.
The Cubs have a good team. They have a good farm system. Why can’t people just be excited and cheer for their team without all this entitlement.
Honestly, I don’t think it’s entitlement so much as it is frustration with Hoyer/Ricketts. Ricketts serves up a lot of lip service, but as the owner of a large market team, hasn’t been willing to go after top tier FAs. They should absolutely be in on Just Soto, but of course, they’re not.
Suzuki, Bellinger, Swanson, Taillon, and Imanaga are fairly high paid.
IRT Soto, their OF is Happ, PCA, Suzuki & Bellinger. Trying to upgrade on those guys is duplicative and not the best use of money. From my outside-in perspective, you look like you need a 3B and an SP.
Soto is going back to the Yankees dude. The Cubs have no shot to sign him at all. You complain about lip service but if hee pretended they could sign him that’s exactly what that would be.
That’s entitlement.
Yes Joe and they went and got a 3b already. It’s really catcher, pen and a starter. That’s the only place they can add.
Right Ricketts is cheap. He spent about a billion of his own money upgrading the Farm System parks and player comforts, rebuilding Wrigley, Rebuilding the neighborhood, And starting their own TV station all while getting nothing in return because of a pandemic. Guy is a real cheapskate. Lets get rid of him.
How does a team rule themselves out on a segment of the market this early in the offseason? I guess it depends on how narrowly you define the top tier. I suppose they’d lean towards a righty and if the top tier is limited to 2 lefties and a righty they have an indication isn’t going to sign with them it makes sense. Still plenty of good starters on the market. It’s not the kind of headline you want to read as a Cubs fan though.
It means that Tom doesn’t want to have Agents to use the Cubs as leverage on getting bigger deals. Every year the Cubs are tied to every big name. Tom shot it down early.
Some of the many bottom lines are….No one in the front office EVER sits around saying,”how are we going to get fans in here to support us?” From ’47 to ’63, one record not below .500, and it was .500…hahaha. Happened again later, but not so horrible. Yet always near the top in attendance, merchandise sales, etc. Hoyer’s job was laid by Theo Epstein. He is a decent number two, with the right number one….but a terrible lead guy. Office is so dysfunctional. Listen to the mgr…..need to build for 90+ wins…every year
I’m with ya KamKid…WAY too early….hahaha…..although i never get the mentality about….well, let’s see how the market develops…….instead of….these are our needs…these are good fits, go make it happen
Oh brother, not again
Hahaha
I think you’re a little bit off on this. First I think it’s kind of refreshing when a team goes out and states what they’re going to do versus allow rumor milled to run rampid and say nothing.
Second Cubs have some problems that throwing money at is just not going to fix. Bellinger has negative value in the trade market they have some talent that’s being blocked by decent players not great players.
I see this as a signal that the Cubs are going to do a turnover this year remove some contract if they can’t do it now they’ll do it mid-season then they’ll start turning out the kids.
This in itself is a little disappointing for a big market team. But if that’s what they have to do you got to do something creative where you can open up payroll the following year while getting some youth acclimated to Major League talent. We already saw this with PCA and there’s going to be more that are talented coming after him
True. Saying between the lines, everyone knows the big market teams are always tied to the top free agents with rumors. Just ignore it and stick with the plan. I don’t want them to always be throwing dollars and years at the top of the heap…that’s why i say…here is our need, it feels like a good fit. Good fits mean lots of things, ethic, personality, leadership. I also agree about giving the kids a chance…when they are ready. That goes with all teams. But sometimes your team is stacked…haha, kids are locked out…dodgers fielders for example.
rampid?
rampant.
Not that it matters, but the ’63 Cubs were 82-80.
I don’t understand why Counsell thought the Cubs would be so much better than Milwaukee. They don’t spend on the type of FA’S that would actually give them an advantage over Milwaukee’s organization.
The Brewers front office is just smarter and can develop. The Cubs have so much payroll buried in mediocre. Now they have a bunch of solid players sucking up all the payroll and nowhere to play any emerging prospects. The teams winning have superstars supplemented with prospects or teams like the dodgers that just have a massive payroll and sign all the superstars. The cubs opted to go down a different path of being .500 year in and year out.
Only Caissie and Alcantara are really good prospects among their kids, and they are certainly going to trade Alcantara. He’s got that skin disease Hoyer doesn’t like.
But they do spend on managers. Would you prefer $4M coaching a slightly above avg team, or $8M coaching team that is avg?
His contract would be relevant if he told Milwaukee his contract offer so they could counter. According to both Attanasio and Counsell he didn’t give the Brewers a chance to match his deal.
Attanasio was obviously blindsided and very upset about how the whole thing went down, and probably would’ve been dumb enough to pay Counsell 8m a year.
Cubs have a few decent prospects, if they aren’t going in for Snell, why pay a guy like Kikuchi who has thrown some good innings but is in some ways just as much of a question mark as the top prospects. Assad had a decent year, I don’t think he’ll ever be a standout starter, but put in some good innings. Point is I guess Cubs should be looking at Blake Snell and only Blake Snell, if they can convince him to leave the West Coast, Flarehty and Manaea are good options but you’ll be spending big for a player that you potentially have in tow. Snell on the other hand would be huge for the Cubs rotation.
The Cubs are a joke. They continue to act like they are a mid-market team vs a major market playing in a weak division.
It’s honestly embarrassing when you consider just how much larger Chicagos market is compared to the rest of their division.
Hoyer needs to be given the Renteria treatment, thanks for overseeing the rebuild, now it’s time to hire a guy who knows how to win.
I honestly believe Tom Ricketts is showing zero confidence in Hoyer if he isn’t allowing him to challenge the luxury tax again. It’s a solid core of guys who need to add a little elite talent on the pitching side but the Cubs are acting poor.
Drascoo has a stalker.
The Cubs don’t have to spend a lot because they don’t need a lot. I’d be busting my butt to get Crochet for prospects without subtracting from the main pitching pipeline. They have enough prospects to get the job done. By the time Crochet needs real money, They will have dumped some salary. Then they should go all in on Sasaki. Probably won’t get him but they should try. With all those arms they could even go 6 man with the 6th guy being long man in case of a blow up. Steele,Tallion, Imanaga, Crochet, Sasaki, Assad that’s a first class rotation. If Getz has any brains he’ll deal with the Cubs as they have what he said he wants in spades. They can’t make the same mistake they made last year and put the Closers job on a young kid without a plan B. And let’s face it, Neris was a lousy plan B. Maybe a LH utility player who can hit, Not named Mastrobuoni and you’re about done. You don’t have to spend like a Rockefeller to put a winning team on the field. And Counsell needs to earn his pay. He’s proven if you give him a bullpen, He can manage it just fine. Was everybody in the pen going down last year a fluke? Or a trend? If it’s a trend they better be prepared this time.
The Cubs need two starting pitchers, one high leverage reliever (at least) and a capable back up at catcher. They also need to dump Taillon, anyone who’s bothered to look at his advanced stats and splits know they need to dump that 36 million asap.
It appears Hoyer decided to make another idiotic bullpen move as he slobbers over ERA. Morgan isn’t a high leverage reliever, logging all of 7 innings last season for the Guards in high leverage situations with a 7 ERA.
The Cubs can still DFA or trade Thompson and/or Merryweather but as of now, Hoyer is making the same mistakes as last season. Thompson, Merryweather, Miller and Morgan are out of options. Adding a much needed high leverage reliever would give the Cubs only 3 slots to rotate guys. Of course one of those slots would be for Hodge, which would effectively leave two.
Well Morgan still has one option remaining and moving Tallion would be dumb as he’s totally earned his paycheck, You won’t get anything for anybody they DFA’d except some cash But other than that you don’t sound anything like Drascoo so you’re a stalker IMO. The number looks different. Or you’ve done a complete 180 on all things Hoyer and that’s my gig.
Keeping Taillon would be dumb. Why don’t you look beyond his deflated ERA that was gifted by Wrigley suffocating offense.
You want to pay 18 million a season for a 4.5 ERA so be it. He “earned” it. Any moron with half a brain sees he’s Kyle Hendricks 2023 and is going to be Kyle Hendricks in 2024 next year.
So the plan is to dump Tallion at 18 million and sign a guy like Flaherty who will be instantly overpaid as soon as the ink dries on the paper which would be really clever. The cure for overpaying is overpaying more. What a novel idea. You work in the government right?
You mean signing a guy, who when healthy, pitches like a TOR starter and will be 29 vs paying a guy who pitches like a back of the rotation starter who’s 33.
The cure for mediocrity is replacing it with actual talent. I get the concept goes way over your head.
Jack Flaherty
13-7
3.17 ERA
28 games
162.0 IP
194 K’s
1.07 whip
Expensive
Tallion
12-8
3.27 ERA
28 games
165.1 IP
125 K’s
1.13 Whip
Reasonably priced
Other than the K’s yeah 65 K’s is worth 25 million a year? Not to me. Plus how many wins did the Cubs shoddy bullpen cost the starters early? I’ll keep Tallion. I only have to pay him 2 more years for the same thing. Rather than 25 million or more for God knows how long. I rest my case.
Wrigley 2024, the most pitcher friendly park in baseball, which is a massive anomaly.
Taillon away 4.58
2023 4.84
None of Taillons advanced stats show that he is anything other than a back of the rotation starter. If you want to make that argument then, well sir, you’re an idiot
Just face facts. We know the Cubs aren’t going to sign anybody who got a QO. That takes half of the available Starters off the market. The ones who are left all have injury plagued backgrounds. In fact, most of the starters who are available have injury plagued backgrounds. That’s why they’re available. If I’m going to do that I’m going after a cheaper animal. Buehler, Crochet because you have no reason to presume the Cubs will get Sasaki. IF that happens then maybe you can deal a guy like Tallion. Until then, For me he stays.
None of Taillons advanced stats show that he is anything other than a back of the rotation starter.
=====================
He’s overrated, but the problem with ‘dump and replace’ is always that you wind up picking up salary in the trade, and then pick up salary for the FA. It usually doesn’t work.
The Cubs could dump most of Taillons money and sign someone better. It does work. It’s called reallocating funds.
I don’t understand the urgency to rush Nico out of town. It’s always mentioned in articles, and keyboard warriors always stoke that talk. He’s a potential gold glove at 2nd, steady at the plate with room to get better. He & Dansby play well together. He is the least of the Cubs problems yet always amongst the first that people deem expendable. There is a surplus of OF creating a logjam keeping Cassie in Iowa – do something about that…or catcher…or 1B…or another starter. I’d love to see Manaea.
He’s already a good glover at second base (2023).
The reason people are quick to mention trading Hoerner is simple, they are stupid. They talk about the Cubs need to improve the offense and think the only way to improve the offense is by adding home runs. Nico had a 122 OPS+ on the road last season. He, like Bellinger, Suzuki and Busch, was greatly effected by the Wrigley Field anomaly that sapped offensive production. Imagine the Cubs being stupid enough to ship Nico out of town and he posts a 120 OPS+ while earning another gold glove and swiping 40 bags. There is a reason best writers for the Yankees and Dodgers are all over him in trade rumors.
Also, I’m super excited about Shaw but I have serious concerns about his ability to handle second and his leg kick. I think Shaw will be a quality player at the major league level in time but needs to be folded into a line up more gradually.
Larry- Nobody wants Nico gone. But when you have guys coming that have more power it’s a natural conversation. When guys start to cost money, And you have players behind him who can be better and cheaper you have to at least be looking. Shaw and Triantos are just as fast, Have more power and just a tad below Nico’s glove. His getting injured means he’s probably here this year and that’s OK. At least until the deadline or he proves he’s healthy anyway. Until then you’d be selling low on a really good player. But facts are facts. If you have a newer, cheaper model you don’t keep both around and sit one in the garage. You sell it to the highest bidder. That’s what keeps the line moving. And having more than one option at your disposal just makes it easier.