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2025 International Prospects

Padres To Sign Top International Prospects Jhoan De La Cruz, Carlos Alvarez

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The Padres are in the process of finalizing signings of two top international prospects out of the Dominican Republic, lefty Carlos Alvarez and shortstop Jhoan De La Cruz, per reports from Will Sammon of The Athletic and Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. Alvarez will receive a signing bonus worth around $1MM, per Romero. De La Cruz’s bonus isn’t yet known, but Romero previously suggested he and the Padres had an agreement in the $2MM range. Baseball America’s Ben Badler had previously pegged De La Cruz between $1MM and $1.5MM. The broader takeaway here, however, is Romero tweeting that multiple sources have indicated the Padres believe they’re now out of the running for star Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki.

Sammon adds that the Alvarez had been originally committed to the Padres but has since been exploring other opportunities in the wake of their emergence as a Sasaki finalist. He’ll now indeed sign in San Diego, which supports the notion that a signing of Sasaki is no longer in the cards for the Padres.

San Diego was one of three finalists for Sasaki, alongside the Dodgers and Blue Jays. There’s no indication that Sasaki has made a final decision yet. The Dodgers were said to be exploring trades to add extra space to their MLB-low $5.146MM international bonus pool. The Jays and Padres have a slightly larger pool, both landing at $6.262MM, though San Diego was also reportedly looking into trades to bolster their maximum potential bonus.

Agent Joel Wolfe has previously suggested, however, that Sasaki’s decision won’t simply come down to who offers the largest bonus. After all, if maxing out his earnings were Sasaki’s top priority, he could’ve waited two more years until he was 25 and thus a “professional” rather than an “amateur” under MLB’s international free agent structure. That’s the route Yoshinobu Yamamoto chose, and it resulted in a record $325MM contract with the Dodgers for the 25-year-old hurler.

Until Sasaki formally puts pen to paper with another team, a sliver of hope for Friars fans remains, but this morning’s reports are bleak with regard to their chances on Sasaki. De La Cruz and Alvarez, however, will still be additions of note to the lower levels of San Diego’s system. MLB.com ranks them as the No. 21 and No. 39 prospects in this year’s class. Badler writes that De La Cruz doesn’t have one standout tool but has average or better tools across the board, with present gap power and the physical frame (5’11”, 170 pounds) and defensive tools necessary to stick at shortstop long-term.

Alvarez turned 17 in November but is already 6’5″ tall and already hitting 93 mph with his heater, per Badler. MLB.com’s report on him notes that he’s a former outfielder, meaning his arm is fresher than many teenaged pitching prospects. That he’s already flashing better-than-average command and secondary pitches despite being relatively new to the mound is an encouraging sign as well.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/25

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January 15 marks the official opening of the international signing period. The majority of top talents have reached verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance, they’re allowed to formally put pen to paper to begin their affiliated careers. The signing period technically runs until December 15, but many of the top signees ink their contracts as soon as first eligible.

This year’s international market has been thrown into disarray, to an extent, by the emergence of star NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. While Sasaki is an established professional in every sense of the word over in Japan, his age (23) and the fact that he has fewer than six seasons of pro ball in another country under his belt make him an “amateur” under the purview of Major League Baseball’s international free agency structure.

As such, we’ve seen both the Dodgers and Padres both hold off on finalizing longstanding agreements with other teams and, in some cases, let players with whom they’ve had standing verbal agreements instead pursue other opportunities. The Dodgers, for instance, saw Dominican shortstop Darell Morel instead agree to a $1.8MM bonus with the Pirates. That worked out for Morel, who’d agreed to sign for roughly half that amount with Los Angeles (likely more than a year prior). Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that Venzuelan outfielder Oscar Patiño also walked away from his Dodgers deal ($400K) to sign for a $570K bonus with the White Sox. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen reported yesterday that Dominican outfielder Teilon Serrano, another Dodgers commit, will instead sign with the Twins now. He’ll receive roughly $1MM from Minnesota, per Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com.

Those defections will sting for the Dodgers if they’re unable to ultimately sway Sasaki to sign in Los Angeles, though there will be other opportunities to spend those dollars down the road. Unexpected amateur players can pop up well after a signing period has commenced, and Los Angeles would also have the ability to trade some any unused international money. The Dodgers have long been regarded as the Sasaki favorite — so much so that agent Joel Wolfe had to publicly deny speculation regarding a predetermined agreement between the two sides — and the recent run of prospects bolting from their international class does little to quell that perception. The Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists for Sasaki, whose posting window closes on Jan. 23.

Turning back to the rest of the class, Badler has a team-by-team breakdown of the most prominent signings over at Baseball America, as well as scouting reports and (in some cases) projected bonuses for as many as 100 players. Longenhagen runs through his own list of 50 international prospects with their expected team and signing bonus over at FanGraphs, as well as a detailed look at some of intricacies and idiosyncrasies of Sasaki’s unique free agent saga. Romero runs through 35 high-profile international talents and their expected team/signing bonus at his site as well. At MLB.com, Jesse Sanchez and Jesse Borek have their own ranking of the top 50 in the class, with scouting reports on each. Those interested in the finer details of this year’s collection of international amateurs are highly encouraged to check out those resources in full. Badler, Longenhagen, Romero, Sanchez and many others around the baseball world dedicate enormous portions of their time and efforts to covering this topic to the fullest.

Note: This is not a comprehensive list of all international signings, nor is it intended to be. If your favorite team is not listed here, it’s not because they’ve sat out the IFA market. There are a few dozen players who’ll sign $1MM+ bonuses and a few hundred who’ll ink six-figure bonuses. Those interested in a comprehensive rundown of the international class can check out links to the excellent work from Badler, Romero, Sanchez and Longenhagen provided above. We’ll run down some of the top signing bonuses here, focusing on those that check in at $2.5MM or more. These are ordered by reported signing bonus, and this list will be updated multiple times today:

  • Elian Peña, SS, Mets: The Mets paid a reported $5MM bonus to Pena, per Badler, which represents a whopping 80% of their $6.261MM bonus pool. Currently listed at 5’11” and 170 pounds, Pena is a lefty-swinging shortstop who’s expected to move down the defensive spectrum but have more than enough bat to profile at third base or second base if all pans out. Badler and Romero both liken his power potential to that of Rafael Devers, praising his pitch recognition, plate discipline and willingness to draw walks. He turned 17 in October.
  • Andrew Salas, SS/OF Marlins: The younger brother of Twins infield prospect Jose Salas (originally signed by Miami but traded to Minnesota alongside Pablo Lopez) and current Padres top prospect Ethan Salas, Andrew will turn 17 in March. He’s a switch-hitter who’s touted for his patient approach, good swing decisions and balance on both sides of the plate. MLB.com lauds him as a potential plus defender both at shortstop and in center field. Salas was born in Florida but moved to Venezuela, his family’s native country, and is already bilingual as a result. The Marlins are committing a $3.6MM bonus to the youngest of the three Salas brothers, per Romero.
  • Cris Rodriguez, OF, Tigers: Rodriguez receives a $3.2MM bonus from Detroit, per Badler. Already 6’4″ and 200 pounds with his 17th birthday still two weeks away, Rodriguez stands out for his bat speed and raw power. Badler calls him a potential 30-homer slugger who’ll probably settle into a corner but for the time being runs well enough to have a chance in center. MLB.com’s report calls Rodriguez a “near carbon copy” of Eloy Jimenez at this same age, even down to hailing from the same city in the Dominican Republic and possessing a similarly aggressive approach. The Tigers will hope Rodriguez can do a better job of avoiding injuries, but Rodriguez possesses thunderous power — more so than any other player in this class.
  • Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez, SS, Giants: Badler and Romero both note that some scouts have graded De Jesus as the top prospect overall in this year’s class (Sasaki excluded). MLB.com indeed ranks him as the top non-Sasaki talent in the class. Listed at 5’11” and 175 pounds, the 17-year-old switch-hitter draws 70 grades for his speed (on the 20-80 scale) and also plus bat speed and the defensive tools required to convince scouts he can stick at shortstop. He’s landing a $3MM bonus from San Francisco, Badler reports.
  • Diego Tornes, OF, Braves: Tornes won’t turn 17 until July. He’s younger than many of the players in this year’s class but still received a $2.5MM bonus (per Badler) thanks to a projectable 6’4″, 200-pound frame that scouts think is a portent for plus power. He’s a switch-hitter who’s praised for plus bat speed and physicality that are well beyond some of his older peers on this year’s class. MLB.com feels he’ll eventually settle into an outfield corner, where he has an above-average arm and — at least at present — above-average speed.

Pirates To Sign Dodgers-Committed Int’l Prospect Darell Morel

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Dominican shortstop prospect Darell Morel had been set to sign with the Dodgers once the 2025 international signing period opened on January 15, but Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that Morel will now be signing with the Pirates for a bonus worth close to $1.8MM.  This represents roughly twice the amount of money Morel would’ve received from Los Angeles.

There isn’t anything improper about such a transaction, as none of these signings are official until pen is put to paper on January 15.  That said, teams, prospects, and the prospects’ unofficial advisors/trainers known as “buscones” often have these deals lined up far in advance of a player’s eligibility year.  The 2025 class features players who are at least 16 years old or will be turning 16 prior to September 1, yet many prospects are regularly linked to teams as early as age 13 or 14.

What makes the 2025 international signing class so unusual is the presence of Roki Sasaki, whose move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the big leagues at age 23 qualifies him as a member of the int’l market.  Waiting until age 25 would’ve allowed Sasaki to qualify as a free agent (within the boundaries of the MLB/NPB posting system) and thus put him in line for what likely would’ve been a hefty nine-figure contract a la Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but Sasaki has opted to bet on himself and get an early start to his big league career.

Sasaki is such a hugely sought-after prospect that it is expected that his future Major League team will surrender its entire international bonus pool to sign him.  It should be noted that money is obviously not the chief factor for Sasaki in picking his MLB franchise, but since this bonus will represent all of his official MLB earnings for the time being, it stands to reason that he will look to score a big payday within the constraints of the bonus pool system.

Since Sasaki won’t sign until after January 15, it has created quite the ripple effect on the international class as a whole.  As Badler puts it, “at least half a dozen teams that think they are still in the running to sign Sasaki.  That means at least 20 percent of the league has their 2025 international signing class in limbo.”

Morel isn’t considered one of the elite members of the 2025 class, as MLB Pipeline doesn’t have the shortstop listed within its top-50 ranking of the year’s top international prospects.  Yet because the Dodgers are viewed as one of the top candidates to sign Sasaki, Morel had no guarantee that his pre-arranged deal with L.A. would be honored, so he opted to sign with the Pirates instead.  Naturally, it probably also helped that Pittsburgh was willing to add $900K or so to Morel’s bonus figure.

It isn’t specified if the Pirates walked away from some deals of its own in order to sign Morel, or if they had enough leftover space in their own int’l bonus pool to fit Morel under their $6,908,600 pool limit.  Badler notes that some clubs left some money open within their pools specifically to capitalize on some prospects who might become available due to the Sasaki-related uncertainty.  “Some clubs are already scouting committed players with other teams,” Badler writes, with the trainers in turn taking the unusual step of getting their players ready for a fresh round of tryouts.

Some players have already received offers from other teams, so for the Dodgers and the other six clubs who have reportedly met with Sasaki in person, their continued interest in Sasaki represents a potential red flag for those seven teams’ 2025 international commitments.  The “worst-case scenario” for a team, as Badler notes, would be that “they hold off on their signings in the hopes of landing Sasaki, their top commits bolt elsewhere after Jan. 15, only for Sasaki to sign with a different team anyway.”  That could leave a few unlucky clubs without Sasaki, without much of their 2025 int’l pool, and with some damaged relationships amidst the buscone community for future dealings.

While the trainers might view 2025 as a unique circumstance due to the Sasaki situation, even if the door isn’t closed completely with certain teams who renege on handshake deals, it can’t help those teams’ chances of signing any star prospects these trainers might be handling in the future.  The biggest impact, of course, is on the 2025 prospects themselves, some of whom will find themselves without the life-changing bonus money their families have been counting on for years.  Some prospects like Morel will be fortunate enough to land larger bonuses, yet a significant number of teenage prospects will see their careers and lives altered in the fallout.

Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

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Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market.  Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period.  If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools.  The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision.  This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star.  It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15.  As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers.  Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question.  As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

More from around the baseball world…

  • The meeting between Juan Soto and the Mets took place this past Saturday, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza all in attendance to provide a “very detailed” presentation to the star slugger.  Soto is set to next meet with the Yankees on Monday, and he has previously met with the Blue Jays and Red Sox in these early stages of his free agent adventure.  It isn’t expected that Soto will be signing any time soon, as these initial meetings could be more about laying groundwork than putting any actual offers on the table.
  • Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) that Jorge Mateo is expected “to have a very full, if not a 162, something close to that season” in the aftermath of a UCL brace procedure last August.  Kubatko’s impression was that the Orioles have Mateo in their plans for 2025, which lowers the possibility that the infielder could be cut loose in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline.  Mateo is projected for a $3.2MM arbitration salary, and fits as a non-tender candidate considering between his injury, subpar offense, and the crowded Baltimore infield picture.  The O’s could be an interesting team to watch this week in advance of both the non-tender deadline and Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, as Baltimore could potentially move an infielder or two off the roster in trades.
  • With the Rays set to use George M. Steinbrenner Field as their home for the 2025 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looks at several details involved in the plan.  A lot has naturally yet to be determined, though Topkin answers some questions ranging from team-centric issues like clubhouses and training amenities to fan-related details like how tickets and parking will be managed.  One interesting wrinkle is the fact that the Rays are expected to host playoff games as per usual should the team make the postseason, which creates the awkward potential scenario of the Rays hosting the Yankees in the Yankees’ own Spring Training facility.

Bonus Pools For 2025 International Signing Period

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The 2024 international signing window is still open until December 15, but the 30 MLB teams have long been making their plans for the next int’l signing period that begins on January 15 of next year.  According to Baseball America’s Ben Badler, the league gave each team its allotted bonus pool figures for next year’s international signing class.

Smaller-revenue teams get more money in their international bonus pools, as the two largest pool groupings match the 13 teams who are also part of the Competitive Balance Rounds in the North American amateur draft.  As it relates to the 2025 international market, the teams with the largest bonus pools are the eight teams who were slotted into the second CBR in the 2024 draft order — the six teams with the second-largest int’l pool are the teams slotted into CBR-A in this July’s amateur draft.  Though CBR picks can be traded, that doesn’t impact the international bonus pools.  For example, even though the Brewers acquired the Orioles’ CBR-A pick as part of the Corbin Burnes trade, that doesn’t alter the amount of int’l bonus money allotted to Milwaukee or Baltimore.

It should be noted that teams are allowed to trade money from their international bonus pools.  If a club is looking for extra money to make another signing (perhaps to bid on a player who unexpectedly joined the market), it can obtain up to $250K in international bonus funds from another team.  This rival team could perhaps simply be done with its int’l spending for the year, or is willing to give up money either as part of a trade package, or perhaps to land a minor leaguer who is closer to the Show than a teenage international prospect who might be years away.  Such deals to acquire more pool space are sometimes necessary because club aren’t allowed to exceed their pool limit.

All international signings greater than $10K count against the pool total.  Here is what each team will have to spend in the 2025 signing period…

$7,555,500: Athletics, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers, Twins…..The original slate of teams with picks in Competitive Balance Round-B of the 2024 amateur draft.

$6,908,600: Diamondbacks, Guardians, Orioles, Pirates, Rockies, Royals…..The original slate of teams with picks in Competitive Balance Round-A of the 2024 amateur draft.

$6,261,600: Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Mets, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees

$5,646,200: Astros, Cardinals…..These teams each gave up $500K of their pool money by signing a free agent (Houston and Josh Hader, St. Louis and Sonny Gray) who rejected a qualifying offer.

$5,146,200: Dodgers, Giants…..For both exceeding the luxury tax in 2023 and for signing the qualifying offer-rejecting Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers had to give up $1MM in pool money.  The Giants had to give up $1MM in pool funds for signing Matt Chapman and Blake Snell, who both rejected qualifying offers.

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