Right-hander Ryan Helsley spoke to reporters about his future with the Cardinals during the club’s Winter Warmup fan event this weekend. As relayed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Helsley indicated that he was actually under the impression he’d be getting traded this winter when the offseason began. The righty added that when his camp heard from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about six weeks after the season ended and was told the Cardinals plan to hold onto him this winter, he initially believed the call was to inform him of a trade.
Part of Helsley’s belief that he was ticketed for a trade this winter is based on the fact that there’s “never been any talk about extensions” between his camp and the Cardinals, he indicated. As noted by Jones, Helsley made clear that he would love to stay in St. Louis beyond the end of his time under team control but called negotiations a “two-way street” before adding that “if only one side wants [an extension], it’s not going to work out.”
It’s not a response that projects much confidence from Helsley about his prospects of remaining in town beyond the end of his contract. While the Cardinals have been seen as unlikely to part with Helsley on the trade market all winter even in spite of interest from rival clubs, keeping Helsley for the start of the regular season doesn’t necessarily mean that the club has interest in keeping the right-hander in the fold long-term or even that they’re opposed to considering a trade for Helsley over the summer if the club isn’t in playoff contention.
The biggest reason for the club to hold onto Helsley to open the season is that the club hopes to maintain some level of competitiveness in a relatively weak NL Central division this year. Helsley was among the best closers in baseball last season as he posted a 2.04 ERA and 2.41 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work while collecting an MLB-best 49 saves. He struck out 29.7% of his opponents and continued to flash triple-digit velocity on his fastball. That’s the sort of dominant performance that can substantially boost a team’s odds of staying competitive, and the Cardinals don’t have a bevy of young relief arms ready to step into Helsley’s shoes the way they do with veteran hitters from the 2024 club like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
Of course, another consideration is money. Helsley and the Cardinals settled at an $8.2MM salary to avoid arbitration this year. That $8.2MM, while not insignificant, would not do as much to assist the club’s goal of lowering payroll in 2025 as letting Goldschmidt (who signed for $12.5MM with the Yankees last month) depart in free agency did, to say nothing of how much more impactful trading most or all of the $60MM the Cardinals still owe Arenado over the next three seasons would be. In fact, Helsley’s impact relative to the Cardinals’ financial obligation to him arguably makes him one of the most valuable players on the team. Viewed through that lens, it’s understandable that St. Louis is planning to keep him in the fold through at least the first half of the season as they attempt to compete for a playoff spot.
Once Helsley is no longer under team control, that value calculation figures to change radically. Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader have set a new standard for elite relievers in free agency by landing deals that garnered both more than $90MM over a five-year period by measure of net present value. Helsley’s track record isn’t quite on the same level as Hader’s but even this year’s top free agent reliever, Tanner Scott, is rumored to be in line for an annual salary that could approach $20MM. If Scott, who had a dominant platform season but has a shorter track record of late-inning excellence than Helsley does, can land that sort of deal in free agency this winter it’s hard to imagine the righty not garnering a deal that at least comes close to doubling his annual salary next offseason.
That’s not the type of contract extension that would make sense for a Cardinals club that’s facing payroll constraints to offer, even before considering the uncertainty the team faces as it turns its focus towards developing younger players at the big league level. That makes it somewhat understandable for the Cardinals to not pursue an extension with Helsley at this point. After all, playing out the final year of his contract allows them to leave the door open for a midseason trade if the club is out of contention while also not stopping them from re-upping with him after the season should they believe that he’s a fit for their needs in 2026 and beyond. If the Cardinals exceed expectations and remain in the mix for a playoff spot all year, it will be much easier for them to project the level of competitiveness in 2026 necessary to make splurging on a closer of Helsley’s caliber more justifiable.
why would any tm extend a CL? no matter how good he is
closers are totally unpredictable and unreliable
giving a RP an extension is an huge risk
Cardinals should shoot for the moon and try to trade Helsley now. Say to Dodgers for Jackson Ferris AND Nick Frasso. If they can’t get an elite package in return, then trade him in June and not later. The Cardinals are not going to extend him.
Agreed. Logic would tell you that they are hoping he continues his 2024 season and be a major haul come July but history (mainly Cardinals history) would suggest he will have an average season and not be as valuable as he is today.
If Cards had firesale to shed payroll they could bring back quite a substantial haul of propects. Like u say pry some of those young Dodger Ps for Heisley, deal Fedde, Matz, whoever gets u good value in return. Focus on players already knocking on door of big leagues n are blocked. Re-stock the barren shelves w/prospect capital n change the teams potential future. Can Mo be trusted to acquire the right 1s though ? To come out ahead, find the gems.
Cardinals fan lately: “They’d probably miss and hit Mars.”
@John
So, should a team change RP just to do it? Elite costs are hard to come by, and if you have one your halt with them, you retain them within reason.
Good gosh another hit piece from a Cubs fan.
Helsley had a career high of 19 saves prior to last years 49. He was hurt part of 2023. Does Helsley expect to get paid like he’s the player he was in 2024? He’s clearly a good closer but he has some questions marks surrounding him.
I’m a Cubs fan, but I agree with you. It’s like all these writers think you either have to sign a guy to an extension or trade them. They seem to downplay the option to keep them and then see how the season goes. They’d have another chance later in the summer if the situation warrants a trade. I see no reason to move him now as this division is clearly up for grabs. I wish Hoyer would get a closer instead of relying on a guy like Hodge.
Yeah and as a Cardinals fan I agree the Cubs need a closer. They get that and they are clearly the favorites.
I like the Tucker deal for the Cubs. I dont care if they sign him long term hes a stud and the Cubs can win in 2025. Reminds me of the Heyward deal the Cardinals made in 2015 which led to the best record in all of baseball that year. Then they lost to the Cubs. Then the Cubs signed Heyward and the Carsinals signed Fowler but that stuff isn’t important lol.
Hoyer is so damn stubborn. Last year, we blew so many late leads, but all he focuses on is the volatility of these relievers. And I agree it’s not a good long-term investment, but you gotta have one. But since Hoyer only knows numbers, he doesn’t factor in the human element of how much it demoralizes a team to play well and lead after 7 or 8, only to blow it at the end.
@remember
they literally discuss exactly that in the article. did you not read it?
@BITA
How is this a hit piece when he eats the article clearly indicates that the GM told Helsley that he had no intention of trading him this winter?
Knicks
Agree, they can call it a hit piece by Helsley but if someone is just reporting what Helsley says it is not a hit piece by the journalist.
Name this last Cardinal in his arb years, to get extended beyond club control, before free agency.
It’s been a while. Matt Carpenter maybe?
I’m not quite sure anyone has high hopes that they’ll be in contention..
arenado does since he rejected houston to stay with the cards
That had nothing to do with Houston or the cards. Location location. Look at the 6 teams on Arenado’s list. 3 in the LA metro area 3 in the NY metro area. He may adapt that list as it lingers but going to Houston to him is the same as staying in STL. Neither is where he wants to be
There aren’t 3 teams in either the LA or NY metro areas.
Extensions have not been kind to Mo or the Cardinals. There was no reason for anyone to expect an extension for Helsley.
Goldschmidt signed an extension when he got traded to the Cardinals no? If so, I think that’s one worked out pretty good.
Makes no sense why Mozeliak isn’t trading him. Cardinals ain’t contending this season, trade him while he still has good value, and get some good pieces in return, similarly to what the Brewers did with Williams.
Do you remember when Chapman was traded at the deadline to the Cubs?
A lot of times relievers are more valuable at the deadline than they are the prior offseason. By July teams know if they are contenders or not and are more willing to make a big trade. So this idea that he’s worth more now isn’t really true. It has some logic to it but not true.
@Bita
Are you really arguing against time? The more time they have an asset determines how much value they might be willing to give up to obtain it. YES, some teams might be willing to offer the same mid season as they might now but logic suggests they’re should be more players in need this winter than in July. In July you might have fewer teams in contention in need but you might also have more inventory on the market too from teams not contending either.
It doesn’t have to be the same. There is value in the Cardinals keeping him and not punting the season. That has a real financial value to the organization.
100%. Maybe he thinks he can get more by trading him at the deadline?
He wants to become a free agent and sign with the Dodgers.
He’s not Japanese.
MoTie is in the penalty box and isn’t allowed to negotiate extensions. He’s just hanging around like a bad smell going through the motions because DeWitt doesn’t have the resolve to terminate his employment.
Trade him before he blows his arm out
Does anyone actually know what the Cards are doing? One of their best assets they could trade on his last season, we shall neither extend him nor trade him.
I have no idea why a 3 year extension couldn’t be possible. Seems like a good compromise to keep him a Cardinal while he’s dominant and leaves the door open to trade him as well.
He has to be willing to accept a three-year extension. When top closers like me Diaz and Harder get 5 years, why would he settle for 3? Maybe he’d bite at 4/$70M+.
The self-proclaimed Best Fans In Baseball would never stand for a rebuild. More important for management to do the So You’re Saying There’s A Chance this season. Not smart objectively but that’s their marketing and relationship with the fan base.
@highfly the moniker “best fans in baseball” is not self-proclaimed, it was given to us by other organizations, players, and journalists.
There is no chance. That’s been apparent for the last half decade.
Many fans would be fine with a rebuild. It’s a thinned skinned owner who won’t tolerate it. I was around for the early 90’s. Those teams were fun but frustrating. Anheuser Busch wasn’t serious about fielding a competitive team. But the young outfield of Gilkey, Lankford, Whiten, and Jordan was great. Gregg Jeffries was phenomenal for one year.
All better than watching overpaid vets decline. But that’s just me.
Those were some of my most fond memories as a kid. I still remember the Gilkey shirt I got at a game of him making this crazy sliding catch.
With Arenado staying (Thank God), if this team can stay relevant in a weak division, they will be looking for pitching help by the trade deadline. If they still fail, Arenado and Helsley will be gone at the trade deadline.
MLB teams that have a hard time often do not know how to teach or use the Roger Beshens Football Slider effectively.
This is a private issue so the team owner, front office staff and the analysts usually do not agree on it in most situations.
A team that doesn’t hire Roger Beshens or seek his advice is missing important guidance.
If the Cards are tearing down the team they should absolutely trade their closer now. Top prospects and be fine with it. He should fetch a lot of value.
One big impediment to trading Helsley is the fact that he’s only been good every other year with injury plagued seasons in between. Nobody team is giving up top prospects for that. Now, IF Helsley can prove he can repeat last year’s performance, then a contending team will cough up more. Look what the Royals got for Adolis Chapman. Their Opening Day starter, Cole Ragans. The same holds for Eric Fedde. Fedde is a steal at $7.25 million if you were signing him as a UFA. However, he has to show that 2024 was not an outlier if you’re giving up what the Cardinals want/need. If he does, the return at/near the deadline will be greater. Of course, there’s a huge risk: they COULD get hurt and/or regress, in which case whatever value they do have now, will evaporate. However, Helsley and Fedde are probably the Cardinals most attractive trade pieces right now. There is an absolute need to maximize the return and the only way to do that is to have patience, wait, and let that return grow….and hold your breath they don’t get hurt or regress.
Helsley’s health is largely dependent on his usage. He develops blisters on his fingers easily. If he is asked to throw more than 25 or so pitches he will start to loose feeling for the ball. The Cardinals and Marmol were in denial of this condition until last season. Miraculously, they used him in shorter stints, he stayed healthy, and dominated. Marmol takes credit for coming up with this plan that any novice could have figured out.
Cardinals have never learned the lesson: Buy low, sell high. They sign free agents who are unlikely to duplicate their walk year and they deal players away when their value is at it’s lowest.
Helsley and Fedde are at their peak value. Trade them now. Matz is an example of a guy whose value could climb; if you don’t find a deal to your liking, hold onto him and see.
Last year’s 83 win team did so by threading a very fine needle they’re unlikely to duplicate.
Amen!
The Cardinals are an organization that is trying to put a spin on the teams chances of competing in 2025. Clearly they’re trying to drum up enthusiasm to sell tickets, particularly season tickets.
Don’t think Cardinals fans in the area are buying the the spin…or consequently, the tickets.
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This is a team that’ll be trying to trade their older productive players for prospects at some point in the 2025 season. Chaim very probably has had FO analysts working this offseason creating lists of possible youngsters both in the minor and major leagues that would be good targets, and those FO people as well as Cardinals scouts will be monitoring those players starting on day one of the 2025 season.
You are 100% right. But to me, it shows the tone deaf nature of the organization. Fans want to win. That is obvious. But it is also nuanced. Most fans are not complete morons. Most fans understand that it is a process building a winner.
I would rather watch a team full of young, developing players win 75 games than watch an older, declining team squeak out 85 wins. Going young is the right move. They should fully embrace it and quit worrying about the terminology. Who cares if it’s a “rebuild” or a “reset” or a “reload”? Do what’s right.
I’ve been a season ticket holder of some level (full, half, 1/3rd, 1/4) tickets for 25+ years.
This will be the first season I have not gone in on tickets at any level. I’m just not buying what they’re selling.
It doesn’t mean im boycotting or never going to go to a game. But I’ll never again agree to own tickets for a lot of games when I can go on the internet and end up getting tickets — likely cheaper — anytime I actually want to go.
Im sure just between work, friends, and family I’ll end up at a handful of games. But that’s probably it.
They don’t warrant large chunks of money being thrown at them at this point.
Cardinals are the most reliant team in mlb on season ticket sales/attendance as a percentage of revenue. That’s why they are acting this way.
He’ll most likely be traded at the deadline.