When the Athletics began to properly invest in the franchise for the first time in years this offseason, putting together their largest Opening Day payroll since 2021 and highest payroll for luxury tax purposes in franchise history, it came with an understanding that the additions of players like Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs would not be enough to propel the club to contention in a crowded AL West division without substantial steps forward from young talent already within the organization.
Fortunately for the A’s, that’s exactly what has happened. The club’s first season in West Sacramento is going quite well, with a 20-18 record that places them second in the AL West even after they dropped their latest series to the division-leading Mariners. With the division’s recent top dogs in Houston and Arlington now both struggling to stay above .500, the A’s have been able to fight their way into contention thanks in large part to excellent performances from recent first-round picks Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom. Wilson, in particular, is an interesting player to consider after he rattled off a 15-game hit streak to open the season. During that time, he hit .368/.368/.544 across 57 plate appearances.
It’s an impressive slash line, to be sure, but his .358 BABIP during that time did not exactly appear sustainable, especially when he had not drawn a single walk during that stretch. Of course, looking at sample sizes of less than 60 plate appearances comes with far too much noise to be all that valuable when discussing balls in play. Wilson took the 150th plate appearance of the season yesterday, providing a slightly larger body of work to examine. Overall, he’s hitting .357/.383/.476 with a wRC+ of 148. He’s walking just 4.0% of the time, and hardly striking out more than that (4.7%). His .361 BABIP is well outside of the typically expected range, and his 2.2% barrel rate shows that he won’t be hitting for much power any time soon; if anything, he’s hitting for more power now (.119 ISO) than expected based on his batted ball results.
All of that suggests that Wilson is extremely unlikely to keep up his current level of production, but that shouldn’t be taken as a suggestion that he’s guaranteed to revert to the 86 wRC+ he posted in 28 games last year. There are two notable hitters who have found great success in the majors in recent years with a similar approach to Wilson at the plate: Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. Of course, there’s also plenty of players like Nick Madrigal and Billy Hamilton who fail to find success in the majors due to their lack of power. The question remains: has Wilson shown enough similarities to players like Kwan and Arraez that he can be counted on for sustained success as an above-average MLB hitter?
It’s hard to come up with a more straightforward comp for Wilson than Arraez. After all, one need look no further than Arraez’s 2023 season with the Marlins to find a nearly mirror image of what Wilson has done so far in 2025. In 147 games with the Marlins that year, Arraez hit an excellent .354/.393/.469 with a wRC+ of 130. He struck out in 5.5% of his at-bats while walking 5.7% of the time, and his ISO sat at just .115 while he floated a .362 BABIP. Arraez accomplished this feat thanks primarily to his line drive rate, which sat at an MLB-best 28.5%. Hitting the ball on a line that often is a nearly surefire way to rack up a lot of hits. Another key factor is Arraez’s relatively small amount of fly balls; just 28.7% of his batted balls were hit in the air that year, a bottom-ten figure in the sport. That puts obvious limitations on a player’s home run power, but it’s great news for a player’s batting average.
Of course, it should be remembered that Arraez is something of a unicorn. Attempting to replicate his approach leaves a player very prone to year-to-year swings in productivity, as seen by the fact that Arraez himself has stuck with that approach in 2024 and ’25 but seen his wRC+ drop to just 109 in that time due to a 48-point drop in BABIP. Some of that can be explained by a small dip in line drive rate (26.3%), but much of it comes down to the randomness involved with batted balls that aren’t hit especially hard. Perhaps Kwan’s approach, which involves more patience (39.4% career swing rate) than either Arraez (46.0%) or Wilson (51.8%), could be an option for Wilson if replicating Arraez doesn’t work out. But for now, Wilson’s Arraez-esque approach does seem to be working for him. His 23.7% line-drive rate is hardly the best in the league right now, but it’s still a well above-average figure. And his ability to limit soft contact is very similar to Arraez; 16.8% of Wilson’s batted balls have been hit softly this year, as compared to 15.2% of Arraez’s last season.
How do MLBTR readers view Wilson’s future? Will he be able to emerge as a rare unicorn able to get by on pure contact like Arraez, or will he need to make adjustments to be more patient at the plate like Kwan in order to be an above-average hitter? Have your say in the poll below:
He gets on base.
Do I care if it’s a walk or a hit?
Regardless of his MiLB numbers, there’s not much scouting reports yet for pitchers facing him for the first time. Wilson, a contact hitter, is swinging early because pitchers are giving him stuff to hit. That will change with more time and they learn him, but his contact rates play, especially in the dry air of that home field, where the ball travels further. Keep it up and he’s due for some nice arb numbers from having that home field for a few seasons, which means Fisher is demoting him tomorrow.
Wilson has a whiff rate below 10% and a squared up rate in the 100th percentile. He’s much closer to Arraez than either Hamilton or Madrigal. Imo, he’s even better than Arraez because he can play a premium position too, and at an average-ish level per outs above average.
So silly
Wilson hit .412 last yr of college
Then over 2 minor lg seasons hit .401
Whats the next poll, “is aaron judge gonna hit 50 hrs this yr?”
I mean – he’s a rookie.
He’s played well in the minors (.433 AVG in 2024), and I’d expect he’ll get better as he figures out major league pitching.
As a rookie – he’s absolutely killing it, and that suggests he will be able to bring his elite bat to ball skills to the majors and if he hits well at a defense first position (SS) – he’s likely to be a long-term valuable player.
If anyone watches him, he is a throwback style player in the vein of Arraez, Gwynn, Boggs, Rod Carew…high average, high contact hitter. He isn’t going to walk or strikeout much. Will he be as great as those players? Probably not. But he’s going to hit for high average.
He likely will just be a better version of his dad who was a pretty good ball player.
Why do writers always think BABIP is never sustainable? Good things happen when you have elite bat control and put the ball in play where you want it.
His season BABIP is higher than Jeter and Judge’s career numbers. Let’s think a little.
I’d really love to see how a lineup with Kwan, Arraez, and Wilson would fare against other ballclubs
I don’t think he’s ever going to put up gaudy counting stats (aside from Runs), but it’s the A’s, so I think he has a good shot to be a pretty regular All Star pick from them. Feels similar to Arraez and Kwan, but more athletic than the former.
Yes, teams will learn to adjust as much as they can, but let’s also not forget he’s doing this as a guy that JUST turned 23 and was given elite marks on his contact/approach as a draft pick / prospect. A .327 xBA is pretty nuts. There’s usually only around 5ish players that can do that over the course of a full season.
This is so typical not only of MLBTR, but the kids that have now taken over all the mainstream baseball media.
Shortstop is a defensive position, the 2nd most important one after catcher. So how do we judge a SS (or C)? Why, by his offensive statistics. LOL All the kids are doing it. (Truth be told, defensive stats are pretty much a joke….decides, who has time to watch games when all they’re looking for is – did he catch the ball and throw it?)
Jabob Wilson is the best young, all-around SS I’ve seen in MLB in years. His father was a major league player. Became a coach at high schools and colleges. Coached Jacob, and it shows. The young man is always in position to to make plays, and makes them fundamentally. Yesterday I saw him on one knee in front of the 2B bag in position awaiting the throw from the catcher on a base stealing attempt. The catchers throw bounced to Jacob’s left. In one motion he picked it clean and drove it straight into the sliding runner. The runner beat the throw by a second. Point being: that is exactly how a SS is supposed to execute that play. I seldom see it done that way. Mostly SS’ s stand in front of the bag and then bend down to tag the runner when they get the ball. Wrong. They’re wasting time, off balance, making the play harder than it is and opening themselves up for a major screw-up.
Nevertheless, Jacob is also a hitter. Fundamentally he’s great at that as well. More power will come as he gets older. Comparing his offensive stats to others is nice. It doesn’t begin to address this young mans Baseball IQ and feel for the game. I have to read stupid articles about how great a SS Mookie Betts and Gunner Henderson are and Oneil Cruz was going to be (among others) because they play a position that many players don’t hit well at. How stupid is that thinking? They’re amateur’s playing in the field compared to Jacob. He’s doing the right thing to help his team win one the field…..not in rotisserie league.
–
Wondering why the Rays surprise almost every year? Two reasons are because: 1) They always find a veteran catcher they can rework, make sure he handles the pitching staff and blocks balls in the dirt…..any hitting is a bonus; and 2) Always have high Baseball IQ SS’s that play the position fundamentally…..and if they don’t hit much that’s fine….like the catcher they save more runs than most opposing players at their positions do. C and SS are defensive positions.
That is why I have been perfectly content with Nick Allen as the braves starting shortstop. He’s not all that great offensively, but he’s ranked as the top defensive shortstop in the league right now by a wide margin, and it absolutely shows. During aj smith shawver’s no hit bid against the reds a few days back (lost it in the 8th) Nick Allen made 2 spectacular defensive plays both with an expected batting average of .700 and .600. that is insane. His play has been a catalyst for the braves clawing their way out of the gutter this year. And he will give you the occasional RBI to help put the team up, and his base running has been a huge boost for the team as well! He is a fine shortstop and I’m sick of seeing braves fans say we need a new short stop right now… Like what do you mean? Who the heck would we be able to get right now? Any offense the braves get out of him is an added bonus, he’s an otherworldly defender out there and he deserves the playing time he’s getting 10 fold! His defense keeps us in the game more often than not, literally saving runs from being scored, especially when our so called elite hitters are all struggling. If not for his defense we probably would not have as many wins as we do right now! If you have a shortstop save 2 or 3 runs in a game, and you win 2 to 1, that means his defense is one of very few reasons the team won!
How has playing in a minor league park been compared to the last stadium they were in? It was a Pacific Coast League park so I expect it to be hitter friendly. Is it outrageously hitter friendly or is it just somewhat hitter friendly?
You missed an option. Wilson will get even better. Once he learns he doesn’t have to hit everything just because he can he will become more selective. Once that happens he will walk more and hit the pitches in his best swing zone for more power.
Arraez on offense from a solid defensive SS is very valuable. I don’t think he’s a gold glover. I don’t think he’ll ever walk or hit for power. The league will figure out how to work around him some. I think he’ll have a long, career a bit better than league average.