Rhys Hoskins’ first season in Milwaukee was a disappointment. The Brewers signed the veteran slugger to a two-year, $34MM free agent contract over the 2023-24 offseason. Hoskins had missed his entire walk year because of a Spring Training ACL tear. He entered the offseason healthy, and Milwaukee placed a sizable bet — especially by their standards — that he’d look no worse for wear in 2024.
The deal included an opt-out after the first season. The ideal outcome for everyone involved was Hoskins would mash for one year, opt out, potentially receive and reject a qualifying offer, then sign elsewhere on a longer-term contract. That isn’t how things played out. Hoskins started the season well enough, but he hit .203/.285/.395 from the start of June through season’s end. He decided not to opt out, leaving the Brew Crew with a $22MM commitment for a first baseman coming off the worst season of his career. The contract meant they couldn’t drum up trade interest, leaving them to retain Hoskins as the team’s second highest-paid player.
While it wasn’t what the front office had planned, that investment looks a lot better now than it did two months ago. Hoskins has been one of the best hitters in baseball. He’ll take a .300/.402/.500 batting line into tonight’s series opener in Pittsburgh. He joins Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith as the only four hitters with at least 100 plate appearances and the rare .300/.400/.500+ triple slash.
Hoskins looks like the impact bat he was throughout his tenure in Philadelphia. He’s taking walks at a characteristically excellent 14% rate while striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip. He has hit seven home runs while averaging 91.4 MPH on batted balls. It’s an across the board improvement relative to his first season in Milwaukee. He’s taking more free passes, striking out less often, and making more authoritative contact. This has been a better start than his strong first two months of last season. He carried a .239/.342/.471 slash with fewer walks and hard-hit balls through the end of May 2024.
It’s true that Hoskins has benefitted from a career-high .362 average on balls in play. That’s going to come down, and Hoskins is highly unlikely to hit above .300 all year. He was more reliably a .245 hitter for the Phillies. That’s a fairer baseline. That’s also sufficient for a player with 25-30 home run pop and an extremely disciplined plate approach. Hoskins was consistently around 25-30 percent better than an average hitter during his time in Philadelphia, as measured by wRC+. That was enough to make him a top 40 or so hitter in MLB.
Hoskins’ rebound also figures to make him an interesting trade candidate. The Brewers are out to a 24-26 start, putting them fourth in the NL Central. They’re six games back in the division and 4.5 out of the Wild Card race with five teams to jump. They’re certainly not out of it with more than 110 games to make up the gap, yet they’re also not clear-cut contenders as they were every season between 2018-24.
Even if the Brewers don’t find themselves as true “sellers,” they could try to move Hoskins. Like many small-market contenders, Milwaukee tends to take a more flexible trade approach — shopping expensive veterans with dwindling club control windows while targeting cheaper players who could immediately contribute to the MLB team. Hoskins would be a candidate for that kind of move even if the Brewers are at or slightly above .500 in July.
On the one hand, Hoskins would be a straightforward trade candidate as one of the best available rental bats. The Red Sox need first base help after the Triston Casas injury. The Giants have gotten a dismal .193/.294/.339 line from their first basemen and could use a short-term bridge before calling upon top prospect Bryce Eldridge. (That Hoskins is a Sacramento native who attended Sacramento State would be an added bonus.) The Mariners, Twins and Reds are other teams that could upgrade at first base.
That’s complicated by the contract, which could be onerous for some teams. Hoskins is living up to his salary in a vacuum, but many clubs are reluctant to take on significant money midseason. There will still be roughly $5.6MM of his $18MM salary to be paid from the deadline through the end of the regular season. More notably, there’s a $4MM buyout on an $18MM mutual option for 2026. The option is going to be declined — quite likely by Hoskins — and the team will need to pay the buyout on February 1, 2026. That might be a bigger stumbling block for an acquiring club. It’s possible teams will want the Brewers to cover a portion of the buyout to facilitate a trade.
Teams may negotiate conditional cash considerations for option buyouts in trade talks; last summer’s trade of Eloy Jiménez from the White Sox to Baltimore is one recent example. That’s not an option on waivers, however. Hypothetically, say the Brewers hold Hoskins past the deadline but fall firmly out of contention in August. It’s possible they’d take the increasingly common approach of trying to dump his salary by placing him on outright waivers before the September 1 deadline for playoff eligibility. There’s a decent chance Hoskins would clear in that scenario, as a claiming team would become responsible for the entire option buyout for what amounts to one regular season month (plus a hopeful playoff run).
Perhaps the Brewers will catch fire over the next two months and make that all a moot point. If Hoskins rakes all season and helps Milwaukee back to the postseason, they could hold him and even consider a qualifying offer to potentially recoup a draft choice if he walks as a free agent.
Image courtesy of Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images.
Interesting that he’s a 1B with 5 errors already, but neither BBRef nor FG thinks he’s actually that bad with the glove overall.
He’s a great person, and his bat is definitely welcomed in many, if not all line-ups. He is the worst fielding first baseman I have ever watched though. Very frustrating watching Hoskins try and field the position.
Pereonally, he’s bad enough in the field that if I were a GM I’d ideally wish to acquire him as my DH. But for teams in need of help over at 1B his bat is strong enough to deal with his shortcomings in the field for the time being.
From 2022 through today, roughly 2400 IP, he has been right around a MLB average 1B on defense with a 0 DRS.
If you prefer OAA or dWAR, then he has a -9 and -26.4 respectively over that time period. Both are middle of the road for the 22 players with 2000+ innings played at 1B.
Compare that to Vlad Jr’s -27 OAA and -47.2 dWAR. Or Pete Alonso’s -18 and -45.3.
Saying Hoskins is the worst you have ever seen is bad hyperbole. He is not even in the bottom 10 defensively of those currently playing F/T at 1B.
I’m not arguing the stats or dismissing their value or accuracy, but without seeing the stats, I would wholeheartedly agree with Kruk. No one has ever described Pete or Vlad as graceful athletes around the bag, but Hoskins is painful to watch.
Based on nothing but my own eye test, I would also rank Hoskins as the worst 1B I have ever seen. There have been some pretty stiff dudes play first in my lifetime, but Hoskins has a way of making it look harder than anyone else I can think of.
Then go look at the stats. They are readily available. Fangraphs. Baseball Reference. Baseball Savant better known as StatCast.
As is pretty much every game that Hoskins has ever played on MLB.tv. Go watch them. It’s pretty easy to see both from the stats and from watching him play that he is not even close to the worst defensive 1B.
I accept the stats. The very first line of my comment indicates that. I’m not arguing with you or the stats. I accept the fallibility of my own eye. I have watched him play plenty of times. For whatever reason he stands out to me as a poor defender. That’s all I’m saying.
We go by stats because it is what we have, but many stats are imperfect. The stats fail on some major things when it comes to first base especially, but can at other positions as well. Range, reflexes, and errors saved tends to be fairly imperfect and sometimes subjective. Not getting to a ball or having enough reflexive reaction to even attempt a play has never been truly reflected in the stats. I can’t make errors on plays I can’t reach. I can’t reach more plays if I can’t react quickly to even attempt to reach them. A great first baseman can also save dozens of errors a season by teammates, snag extra outs with great footwork, and also get extra outs and double plays with decisive thinking and strong accurate throws.
Ex: I watched Jeter make nearly every play he could reach for an entire career, but also get to hardly any balls that most other short stops would have been able to field or at least knock down. He was sure handed with a very accurate arm, just like Cal Ripken. Both had very little range. I would say Hoskins has poor footwork, poor reflexes, poor range, is not very decisive, doesn’t save many errors, and doesn’t particularly make many surprise plays that distinguish him from other poor fielders. Take that all into account and the stats still claim he is either middle of the pack if you want to go by them, or the stats are saying that Major League Baseball has enough players bad at first base to make Hoskins appear to be middle of the pack. I agree we go by stats, but I also agree with the poster claiming the eye test says he is a DH standing by a bag where first base coaches hang out.
Defensive stats are not getting any better if Hoskins is viewed any higher than a horrible 1Bman.
I distrusted defensive stats for years and I thought they were improving, but these numbers on Hoskins are astoundingly off kilter.
Public defensive stats for 1B are known to be deficient as none of them adequately measure the ‘first basing’ part of the job. 1B also get relatively few balls in play so it takes longer for a notably bad 1B to pile up demerits.
The eye test isn’t wrong on Hoskins. Any insider will tell you the same.
I watched him play for years. I use my eyes to judge players (as well as stats to some extent).
It’s not hyperbole for me to say Hoskins is the worst fielding first baseman I have ever seen. He’s a terrible fielder.
Note that I didn’t say the worst ever. Simply the worst I, personally, have seen.
The linguistic meaning of a BUT in a sentence is dismissing what comes before it as not valid.
He is a middle of the road defender.
Hoskins is a middle of the road defender at 1B. That much is crystal clear,
Brad, defensive metrics at 1B other than DRS do not include the 1B most important job. That is catching the ball thrown to them by fielders. You can get some idea of that by looking at the Scoop stat, but that only takes into account how they do on balls that bounce, not those that are otherwise offline. All the other stats take into account is how the 1B does on fielding balls in play off the bat, the least important part of his job and one he does about 10% as much as he catches a ball thrown to him by another fielder.
The eye test is invariably wrong by nearly everyone except the most well trained and qualified and nearly all of them are working in some level of professional baseball or used to and are probably not commenting on this site.
In this case, no insider has said Hoskins has terrible defense, so I will go with what those that are qualified AND the stats are telling us.
Its hyperbole or you are just plain horribly wrong. You choose. Those are your only choices.
1. I have such training and have assisted with teaching scouts to incorporate statistical expectations in their reports. That’s how I built the sourcing for the Big Hype Prospects column.
2. They’re buried in Twitter DMs and fairly dated, but I have multiple insider reports about Hoskins’ defense (along with Alonso and other bad 1B) that I gathered for an article that never came together.
Ultimately, if you want to believe he’s an average 1B, it’s no skin off my back. Do what you want. For everyone else saying he’s a bad defender, you’re not wrong.
Sounds like you just called yourself out for use of hyperbole then. Hoskins is an awful fielder at first base.
You can’t bury your nose in statistical analysis and figure out exactly what type of player you have. It’s just plain foolish to do so. Hoskins is great example of it based on what people have witnessed from him vs. your statistical analysis which leads you to believe he’s a better fielder than he really is.
Brad, look at my old blog posts and you can see what I did for a living for nearly all of my adult life. Suffice to say I have 40 years of getting paid in baseball.
The data is clear. The stats, trained eyes, and team reports say he is about an average defensive 1B TODAY. Anything that is dated, is useless.
Kruk, you are obviously ignorant of baseball. No reason to continue interacting with you.
One of the greatest defensive 1B of all time is Don Mattingly and he’s def no mattingly with the glove lol but his bat is always welcome on any team
Donnie Baseball! My favorite baseball player of all-time! Always like to see him get a mention.
Miss him in Philly. Glad he’s doing well again…
Hoskins for Duran of Boston , straight up
You straight up smokin’! – Red Sox
lol Refsnyder and a prospect flyer and call it even.
Giants have Encarnacion coming off the IL soon and he makes the league Minimum.
Wade Jr has an OPS over 1.000 in his last 8 games.
SFG says no thanks
literally anyone can have a 1.000 OPS for a week
That’s a good bet for any team to be perpetually mediocre or terrible.
I’ve been a fan since his Reading days. While I hope he continues this success, he is a streaky hitter with a history of great months and then some bad months.
Saw many a game at Reading over the years., and saw many of the prospects on their way up as they were passing through. Lakewood has its charms and the LHV stadium is very nice and a fun time but Reading has always been my favorite.
He’ll be a big trade piece for a team at the deadline.
Big as in tall? Hefty? Imposing?
He has a .362 BABip. His numbers will drop into the .240/.840 range by the end of the season.
I’d love to see the Red Sox try to snag him. He’d be just a tad bit of an upgrade over Abraham Toro…
If the Brewers improve up to the deadline they might just keep him and tag a QO on him
A QO on Hoskins? Surely you jest?
Of course he’s doing better – he’s an impending FA.
This is an a snippet from the Baseball America paid for content for actual MLB scouting reports on players from around the league. I’ll just leave this here.
Middle of the pack is just another way of saying the defensive metrics for 1st baseman in the game today is seeing the plurality of 1st baseman as bad, and/or playing out of position overall. In other words, middle of the pack ain’t what it used to be.
From Baseball America
He’s still has a long way to go defensively at first base. Scouts see poor range, bad hands and slow-twitch athleticism with a stiff body and actions for his position.