When Will The Royals Promote Jac Caglianone?

The Royals’ offensive struggles aren’t exactly a secret. Kansas City is contending in the American League not because of its lineup but in spite of its lineup. Arguably no contender in MLB has been as anemic at the plate as the Royals, who sport a .246/.301/.361 batting line as a team. The resulting 83 wRC+ (indicating they’ve been 17% worse than average at the plate as a unit, even after weighting for their pitcher-friendly home park) is tied for the fourth-worst in baseball, leading only the Rockies, Pirates and Rangers.

The Royals have hit 33 home runs as a team. Shohei Ohtani has 20 by himself. Cal Raleigh is at 19. There are multiple contending clubs whose top two sluggers alone boast a home run total that’s comparable to the Royals’ teamwide output; Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham have combined for 32 dingers, while Arizona’s Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez are at 31 round-trippers between them. Kansas City’s 33 home runs are seven fewer than the 29th-ranked Pirates’ collective 40 home runs. Every other team in MLB has at least 46 long balls. The Yankees lead MLB with 88.

All of this is taking place at a time when Kansas City is housing perhaps the top slugger in all of minor league baseball in Triple-A. Last year’s No. 6 overall pick, Jac Caglianone, has embarrassed minor league pitching in his first full, pro season. The former Florida Gator decimated Double-A opposition with a .322/.394/.553 batting line and nine homers in 38 games before being promoted to Triple-A. Since joining the Royals’ Omaha affiliate, he’s homered five times in eight games while slashing .343/.351/.800. Overall, Caglianone boasts an almost comical .326/.387/.599 line with 14 home runs, nine doubles, a 9.4% walk rate and a 20.8% strikeout rate in 212 minor league plate appearances.

There are some developmental aspects to consider. Caglianone was a first baseman (and pitcher) in college. He’s dropped the mound work and is focusing solely on the position-player side of his career. Vinnie Pasquantino has him blocked at first base in K.C., so the Royals have been having Caglianone learn the outfield on the fly on a part-time basis. He’s still relatively new to that challenge. Much has been made of Caglianone’s penchant for chasing off the plate, too. He’s made strides in that regard in 2025, but the Royals likely want to avoid a situation where he’s promoted to the majors and expected to be a savior, only to see his approach exploited by top-level pitching that results in the first real adversity of his fledgling professional career.

It’s all understandable, but the Royals’ outfield, in particular, has been the weakest in the majors. Kansas City outfielders have combined to hit just seven home runs this season while slashing an MLB-worst .235/.283/.329 (68 wRC+). They recently made some changes, moving on from Hunter Renfroe in favor of 27-year-old rookie John Rave, but the lack of outfield production only shines a brighter spotlight on what Caglianone is doing in the minors.

[Related: The Royals’ Outfield Drought]

This is playing out at a time when two of the top three arms on their vaunted pitching staff — Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo — are on the injured list. Prospect Noah Cameron has stepped up and dominated in four starts to help offset the loss of those top starters, but losses on the pitching side of the roster are only going to magnify the issues on the other side of the game.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Anne Rogers of MLB.com have both shined some light on a potential timetable for Caglianone’s MLB debut, though it seems clear the plan remains somewhat fluid. Passan reports that the Royals’ Omaha affiliate is just beginning a homestand, but Caglianone could be in line for a big league audition not long after its completion (June 8). Rogers stated in her recent video mailbag with fans that the organization is looking for “sustained success over the next few weeks” before considering a promotion. That generally aligns with Passan’s framing. Rogers adds that the Royals have been reluctant to rush Caglianone but the timeline has “shifted recently” as the major league lineup’s struggles continue.

“The hardest part about this for us is we’re trying to do what’s best for the player,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo acknowledged to Passan before emphasizing the need to make sure Caglianone is as prepared as possible for big league pitching. “…It’s not fair to any player, whether it’s Jac Caglianone or whoever, when a team may be scuffling offensively to try to put it on him and hope he’s going to come save the day.”

Passan points out that for all Caglianone’s dominance, his two-strike approach is still sub-par. He’s chased just under half the pitches off the plate he’s seen in those settings (49.2%), which the Royals presumably fear is a trait that can be picked apart by the best pitchers in the world. Picollo spoke at length with Passan — readers will want to check out the column for full quotes and context — about wanting to see Caglianone face Triple-A pitchers not just multiple times in a game but to square off against them in multiple games. In essence, they want to see how pitchers adjust to Caglianone both within the confines of one individual game and with days or weeks between matchups. Conversely, they want to see how Caglianone reacts to such adjustments. That sort of challenge isn’t possible when he’s only eight Triple-A games under his belt. (Picollo also discussed these challenges with the Kansas City Star’s Sam McDowell earlier in the month, for readers who are intently tracking Caglianone’s development but may have missed that interview.)

It’s a delicate balance to strike, and the Royals’ recent play is forcing the issue. Kansas City won 16 of 18 games from April 20 through May 9. The near inverse has happened in 17 games since, when they’ve played at a 6-11 clip. That slide has coincided with improved play from the division-rival Twins, who’ve leapfrogged the Royals in the standings, and continued strong play from their rivals in Detroit and Cleveland. Kansas City has fallen to seven games back of the Tigers, and they’re now a game back of the Astros, Twins and Guardians, who each hold an American League Wild Card spots with identical 30-25 records.

For those wondering, there don’t seem to be any brazen service time shenanigans at play. The Royals showed as recently as 2022 that they were willing to overlook such things when they broke camp with a then-21-year-old Bobby Witt Jr. as their shortstop. Caglianone has already been down about seven weeks longer than would’ve been necessary to make sure he doesn’t accrue 172 days of MLB service time (i.e. one full year) by traditional means.

Caglianone could still get a year of service based on Rookie of the Year voting, but unless the plan is to hold him down until mid-July, that’s going to be a possibility whenever he gets the call. The top two finishers receive a full year of service, regardless of promotion date, if they were a consensus top prospect in the sport (as Caglianone is). Jacob Wilson has a big head start for the AL favorite, but the rest of the field is pretty well within reach if Caglianone debuts and performs up to his potential.

The Royals run some risk of Caglianone securing four years of arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player, but that hasn’t been a concern for them in the past. Each of Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, MJ Melendez, Daniel Lynch IV and Nicky Lopez have been Super Two players for the Royals over the past few years. Maikel Garcia is a slam-dunk Super Two this coming offseason. The timing of Cameron’s recent promotion would put him in line to add to the list, if he sticks in the majors. Super Two status simply hasn’t been a deterrent for the Royals in the past, and it’d be a surprise to see them allow their offense to languish in a win-now season to save money on Caglianone but not extend their window of control over him.

It’s a frustrating waiting game for Royals fans at a time when the team has scored 38 runs over its past 14 games (2.7 runs per game). Any waiting period seems like it’s on the cusp of completion, however, so long as Caglianone remains healthy and doesn’t fall into a strikeout-laden slump as a result of egregious chasing off the plate.