Mitch Keller is one of the top names on the pitching market. The Pirates have generally been expected to deal him to clear payroll space and bring back controllable hitting talent. While that’s seemingly the likeliest outcome, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Pirates remain unsure of whether to trade Keller with six days before the deadline.
Keller is essentially in the first season of a four-year contract. He signed an extension in February 2024, though that left his already agreed upon salary for last year unchanged. Keller is playing on a $15MM salary this year. That’ll climb to $16.5MM, $18MM, and $20MM for the next three seasons. It takes him through his age-32 campaign.
That makes Keller the highest-paid player on the roster. It’s nevertheless quite a bit less than he’d command if he were on the open market. There’s surplus value that’d allow the Pirates to land a significant return. Keller is amidst the best season of his career. He owns a personal-low 3.53 earned run average in 125 innings. He’s only striking out 18.7% of batters faced, but he is walking fewer than 6% of opposing hitters. Keller has taken a step forward in handling left-handed hitters after struggling in that regard earlier in his career.
It’s a rock-solid #3 starter profile. Keller has been exceptionally durable and has a six-pitch arsenal that’s headlined by a 94 MPH fastball. The Bucs have reportedly gotten calls from the Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs and Mets — presumably among others that haven’t been reported. Noah Hiles of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has suggested the Cubs view Keller as something of a fallback target. The Mets are involved in the rotation market but presently more focused on the bullpen. Toronto and the Yankees still appear strongly involved in the rotation market. Teams like the Giants, Red Sox and Tigers could also pursue controllable starting pitching.
The Pirates are weighing that against the possibility of keeping Keller behind Paul Skenes in the rotation. Top prospect Bubba Chandler should be up before the end of the season. Jared Jones could return midway through the ’26 campaign. That’d be a potentially elite top four if they were all healthy. Pitcher injuries are always a concern, though, and the Pirates have run out unplayable lineups year after year. They’re unlikely to spend their way out of that problem. Even with star shortstop prospect Konnor Griffin coming through the pipeline, there’s not enough hitting talent in the organization.
Trading Keller is probably their best path to acquiring young offensive upside. Pittsburgh should also get a notable return for closer David Bednar, who is under arbitration control for another season after this one. Setup man Dennis Santana has built a decent amount of value as well. The Bucs aren’t expected to move Oneil Cruz unless they’re completely blown away by an offer. None of their impending free agents are going to bring much back.
General manager Ben Cherington was hired over the 2019-20 offseason. The Pirates haven’t come especially close to making the playoffs in that time. They already replaced skipper Derek Shelton earlier in the season. It stands to reason Cherington is motivated to demonstrate a path to the playoffs for the 2026 club. Trading Keller for low minors prospects wouldn’t do much to that end, so it’d make sense for them to demand high minors and/or young MLB talent.
Trading anyone that’s not on an expiring contract should be made by a new GM. The BC era has been beyond brutal
Anything significant is approved by Williams and Cherington. So new gm won’t help much. More likely to be worse trader than Cherington. Trading expiring talent for young talent is easiest thing to do. It’s just taking bids. Cherington wanted to trade Reynolds Bednar at peak value and wasn’t allowed. If those players are good today Cherington won’t be going anywhere. Look what could have been but you didn’t allow it to happen.
Cherington has the best prospect in baseball and took him 9th. Makes you think before you fire him. And he just got the best player in draft this year at 6. Drafted best player 3 years in a row.
I would have fired Cherington for not firing Shelton and fired Williams for not firing Cherington. And I believe the team with the cheapest payroll needs the bestest gm. Cherington would be find for some teams not Pittsburgh. Nutting though is more loyal and risk averse.
Pirates have to find out how to run a team smart, they don’t have to be as smart as the rays but they can at least sign the right veterans and be like the athletics whenever they are good
Have to be smarter than Rays. Pirates don’t have Rays development. Pirates bottom in development. Pirates need an incredible gm and they passed on him and got Cherington.
I tend to agree the problem/s lie more with Nutting than BC. Hard to build a winner and develop when your owner won’t spend on the infrastructure to do so. It’s not cheap to add 2x the amount of coaches, pitching lab, hitting lab with all the technology. And regarding signing the right veterans, not only does Nutting not enable BC to spend to get said vets, they likely have to pay 150% more than any competitive, larger market to attract the free agents.
Nutting is the easy target. And he’s a cheapass SOB, but development is the bigger issue and that falls on the GM and his hires.
The Pirates are committed to trading him to save money.
If this is true, “Pirates remain unsure of whether to trade Keller,” it certainly explains a lot about their internal operations.
I agree with you though, imho it is posturing for the best available deal to save Nutting money.
Why would any person in authority publicly state player A is going to be traded? Never give up leverage by stating someone is or has to be traded.
They won’t save $. Payroll will be similar next year. Nutting has to spend a certain amount and will do so even though Pittsburgh is a historically bad baseball city.
You’re historically a moron so there’s that to take into account
How old miserable pathetic do you have to be to type that out. You think it’s clever or funny?l. It’s not. Lighten up and enjoy life. I’m sure you can find something more fulfilling than name calling.
Dream (AI GM) will forget more about baseball than you will ever know, DerekBell.
Wrong
Richard?
probably not, Richard would have mentioned that Pittsburgh isn’t a good baseball town because of attendance figures
True
Who will be the next highest paid player on the roster if Keller is gone? If they trade him then their payroll will go down to John fisher levels of payroll
Reynolds makes I dunno 12m? Maybe as high as 14m but 12 sounds right. Next Hayes at 7m. Then Cutch at 5. IKF Bednar make more but they will be and decent odds will be traded. Bednar would get 8 9 likely next year.
Keller Reynolds Hayes only players extended on roster.
They could theoretically trade those 3 guys on top of bednar or Cruz and get all minor leaguers in return which is insane to think about
If I could get fair value I would trade everyone except Skenes and maybe Cruz Keller.
It’s a culture of losing. Roster full of just around average guys. Not completely full or they would be better. You could have replaced Reynolds with any of 4 free agents for 5m or less and been better. One of those is Pham. Look at Hayes stats. I’d rather have the $ and avoid the bad back risk. IKF gone anyways. Frazier already gone. Horwitz is ok but McMahon Naylor better for reasonable trades. Bart just a guy. Davis can’t hit. Heaney is gone. Just sign another Heaney next year. They have better options ready that Falter. I’m keeping the kids and probably Keller Cruz. But anything else is gone and replaceable.
The Bucs yesterday announced a. Reynolds Bobble Head giveaway for a game in September.
Probably with the knowledge that he won’t be traded
Nutting will reinvest back into the team 🙄
Seriously keep Keller and trade Chandler
What are they gonna say? We will take a bad offer if its the best one because Nutting is a cheapskate and were desperate for payroll space to get a hitter or 2? Of course this has to be their position.
I doubt they take the money saved and actually spend it later.
Yeah, maybe not, but we know 100% Nutting isnt allowing Keller to stay and paying up for even a pillow contract on top of that.
Seems to me their only chance is to move Keller/Bednar for a few MLB ready position prospects that could contribute next year, and add a vet bat on a bounce back deal to raise the offensive floor.
Their team is gonna suck either way. I really think they should trade Skenes. Griffin is the new number 1 prospect but he won’t be ready for a couple years most likely. Trading Skenes could fill 5 holes on the roster and the team would actually be better for it.
Thankfully your opinion doesn’t matter King of Cards
Has nothing to do with payroll. Will the Pirates have a 16m less payroll next year or will it be similar? It’s either pay Keller or pay someone else. It’s just they have pitching depth but absolutely nothing for hitting.
If they trade him you think they go out and spend that money in free agency? I doubt it.
You never know. If they roll out a 70 million payroll next year I was wrong. Be a bold move to lower payroll 15 20 million whatever he will make when you have Skenes.
I think Bednar Santana have higher likely hood of being traded.
IKF Pham almost certain.
Will they not replace those salaries as well on payroll?
Just baseball moves that every team does and payroll will be similar next year.
Tommy Boy quote
“I Knew it”
Watched that for the first time in a long time the other day
Avengers Endgame Quote, too.
Don’t expect any significant moves. They will trade the expiring contracts like usual. Probably trade IKF, Heaney and company for pitching prospects. This team will look very similar next year. Sign another veteran lefty and OF in the off season and try Triolo at SS. Prepare to be disappointed again Pirates fans.
Bryan reynolds is a dark horse trade candidate because even though he isn’t that good this year teams still probably would want him
I would expect the braves as a fit but this is just speculation
Disappointment is an annual event with this franchise
“The Pirates have generally been expected to deal him to clear payroll space and bring back controllable hitting talent. While that’s seemingly the likeliest outcome”
Not true and never should have been expected. If a fantastic makes too much sense offer emerges sure he will be traded. That just isn’t probable.
Is Cherington on hot seat? If yes then why trade Keller. Keller makes them better in 2026 unless that unicorn Goldilocks offer happens. Trying to keep your job you want Keller. And if they trade Keller why fire Cherington? What’s the new gm going to do? It would be Cheringtons team until it’s time to trade Skenes.
Keller – keeping Keller that is – does make them better in ‘26 in a sense. But Keller with no offensive support does nothing. Last night excellent pitching resulted in 1 hit in 11 innings and a 1-0 loss. The only currency the Pirates have is pitching and if they are not able to trade some of that for offense they will continue to lose. And, apart from Keller their pitching is cheap right now. When it becomes expensive the pitching will be traded or walk away.
Is the Keller return going to fix the offense? After 6 years on the job the Keller trade is going to be Cheringtons 1st trade that gets a good hitter? I wouldn’t bet on it but sure it could happen. I wouldn’t trust Cherington to do it if I was Nutting. Nutting doesn’t have a clue though.
that’s not entirely true, Nutting has a great clue of how much money he’s getting from the duped fans who attend games at PNC Park
How much surplus value does Keller really have? He’s owed a lot of money. I agree hes a rock solid number 3. Thats a lot of money for a good number 3 starter. I suppose he has some surplus value but I dont think its a lot at all.
He’ll make 16m or so and he’s worth 26m or so. Easily. He would get multiple top 100 prospects or a top 50.
They better be shooting for top 50 or don’t trade him. I’d be ok with Owen Cassie or Justin Crawford. Alex Freeland maybe. Or go with controllable pro like Abreu or Dominguez.
Would you trade Keller for Canario? Maybe a bit of exaggerating but maybe not. Look at Cassie strike outs. Look at Pirates strike outs. I see a problem with player and a team that has no idea how to fix it. Look at Cassie stats this year and Canario in Cubs AAA last year. I’ll take Cassie as the better prospect and one who hasn’t had MLB time. Do I trade Keller for him absolutely not. I could get 2 players like Cassie. Not a pitcher. Not a SS. Not a catcher. Not even a CF likely or at least a good one. So he has to make it with his bat and he doesn’t put his bat on ball enough so needs to walk at a high amount and hit 30 hrs which he can possibly do.
Difference between top 10 15 to top 30 40 is drastic vs top 30 40 to 70 80. I have a sure thing in Keller and 3 more years. I want more of a sure thing prospect or more prospects to increase my chances of hitting on.
When the prospect I trade for Keller fails I want to say well no such thing as a for sure thing. Vs well the strike outs were a concern.
Crawford does have strike out issues. Doesn’t have power. I’d rather bet on more to come power with a guy with better cf odds who doesn’t K. Rather just get 2 slightly lesser guys. Rather just keep Keller unless I get it offer that doesn’t make my question it. I don’t want a obvious red flag problem.
For 2 million Tauchman has a 800 something ops. 5 million gets you Heaney. Not finding a Keller for 2m. Pitching more important harder to get.
Their entire team has produced 16.5 wins and Skens accounts for 5.3 of them. The position player with the highest WAR is a soon to be free agent utility guy. This team is a dumpster fire.
Is there a pool on when the Pirates trade Skenes?
I’ll take January 17, 2028.
I think they trade him right when his arb years start and he starts to get expensive
His trade value will still be high and they can get off his potentially high salary
It’s so sad that the pirates have a 0% chance to resign him
What date are you picking?
They’ll hold onto him til he has 2 arb years left, into the 27 season. But he’ll end up needing Tommy John at the end of that season, leaving him missing one of his final arb years
Pirates will be left taking less than they could have gotten afterward, either before he returns or due to him just being a rental after he does return & proves himself healthy
This is the Pirates Way
The only thing the Pirates aren’t committed to is winning. Sell the team and bring back the striped flat tops. Pittsburgh deserves better.
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Must have used up all their prepaid minutes on their cellphone plan to make a trade. Might want to switch to Tello to continue the trade talks.
His contract is a bargain compared to the other contracts that don’t pay their way. The only smart contract the Pirates made so I hope they keep him.
If they don’t get a great package they should keep him.
Hayes is the one guy they should move and then extend Cruz
In today’s MLB, mid rotation SP is devalued, while quality bats are much more in demand. Making a deal for Keller much less likely this summer.
What Pirates are saying is the offers for Keller aren’t good enough to move him. Maybe that will change in next few days, but more likely after the season when the pool of trade partners increases.
I would not trade him. Other, less valuable players and prospects may bring some offense without destroying the starting pitching staff.
“Pirates Not Committed”
Everything beyond that phrase is just filler
Pirates leaked this info out to see if they can get someone to overpay for him.
Yeah, they’re not committed to anything other than reaping the greatest profits as possible with as little investment as possible
It’s a pathetic franchise, led by a carpetbagging owner, the Mister Potter of our Bedford Falls
It’s an abject joke.
If you wanted to kill a fanbase, this is how you’d do it. Spend like the miser you are, treat fans like cattle
Keller *should* go. As should everyone else. Problem is, you need a visionary GM. You need good player development staff
Does anyone believe in Cherington’s ability to get equal value in trades? Does anyone think young players will progress on the Pirates farm?
It needs to be all burned down to start over again.
The perpetual rebuild.
Rebuild has become an expected feature under this management system, everyone is replaced except the people who really need to be sent into oblivion.
Namely Ben Cherington who wouldn’t know position player talent even if they fell into his lap wrapped in gold medals
Isn’t it pretty amazing that the GM talent pool in MLB is so thin and constantly gets re-cycled by teams……Cashman should have been fired seasons ago…Cherrington failed pretty miserably up in Beantown yet is back again in Pitt with fans in both cities calling for his head…..wow.
“Not committed” is trade season speak for he’s yours, just give us what we’re asking for. What’s that? A top prospect or 2 ready to help the Pirates offense now.
The Pirates should be open to offers on any player to assess market value and potential returns. I would actively shop Bednar, Pham, Cruz, IKF, and other rentals to maximize short-term trade value. Meanwhile, Keller, Reynolds, Davis, and Hayes should be kept as core pieces, with efforts made to extend Santana and Falter, who provide stability and upside. This approach balances long-term development with smart asset management.
Trade Chandler
He will be surely be traded but not for top prospects . Probably will get another team’s 15 to 20ish prospect or two . He is a 3rd/4th starter but can get prospects in return. He could also go back to bring an era 4.25 league average pitcher .
They shouldn’t trade Keller unless blown away! Get rid of Hayes if you can. Trade expiring contracts and be a major league team in the offseason and fill your lineup!
Ferguson, IKF, Pham all are on one year contracts and should get traded, though with Cherington at the helm, if he waits and holds out until the last day before the deadline ends, he might not get anyone major league ready and instead low level prospect in return
Other than Reynolds, Cruz and Bednar Cherington doesn’t have a good track record on trades
I agree but the upcoming free agent class is quite weak. Naylor and Suarez are the two big bats but don’t see them spending for them. O’Hearn will also be expensive. They’d have to sign a risky breakout guy like Grisham/Laureano, or someone like Lane Thomas, Kepler, or Wade Jr hoping for a miracle bounceback.
It’s amazing the Pirates have any fans. S*** organization top to bottom.