The Reds are three games over .500 but 7.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. Their best path to the postseason is a Wild Card berth. They're 2.5 games back at the moment as they look for their first playoff bid since 2020 (just their second since 2013) and their first playoff win since back in 2012.
Record: 50-47 (Playoff odds 11.1%, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners
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Potential needs: Corner outfield, first base, second base, reliever
The Reds' primary need, regardless of position, is simply another bat -- or multiple bats -- to bolster what has been a stagnant offense. Ideally, that'd come in the outfield corners. Austin Hays has been great when healthy but has only made it into 44 games due to a trio of IL stints. He and utilityman Gavin Lux lead the team in plate appearances as a left fielder. Jake Fraley, who just returned from a shoulder injury, leads the pack in terms of plate appearances as a right fielder. The Reds have used eight different players in right field and ten in left. No one has more plate appearances at either position than Fraley's 140 in right field.
Fraley and Lux are both hovering around league-average offensive output that's driven largely by plate discipline. Neither is slugging even .400. Fraley has a .152 ISO (slugging minus batting average) that's right in line with the .154 league average. Lux is down at .114. Neither is going to provide much power, and neither can hit left-handed pitching.
A righty-swinging corner outfield bat would fit the Reds nicely -- all the better if it's someone controlled beyond the current season. The Reds are fringe contenders in 2025 but have the rotation talent to make a stronger run in 2026 with better health.
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What if we see what we could get for Martinez since he’ll be on the move at season’s end? Then pick up an impact bat in the outfield for about the same price keeping payroll intact. A rotation of Abbott, Lodolo, Singer, Greene and Burns would be fine with me. Spiers could fill in where needed.
Not a bad idea assuming Greene can come back healthy
A creative thoughtful suggestion thinking about budget constraints. Great post. You’re a top 1% here.
Nobody is going to take on Martinez AND his money.
$7 million remaining on his contract at the end of July. Dodgers can afford him.
Yeah, Martinez for salary relief would be a good pickup by the Dodgers….
MLBTR has jumped the Shark 🦈
The OF looks very thin after this season, only Friedl and Benson are sure to be part of the roster, with no prospects in sight.
Friedl is the only sure thing of that duo. They knew this for years now and did zip.
His name is Hays not “zip”
I would think if they could move Martinez it would be a three team deal. Pirates-Reds-Tigers, O Cruz to reds, N Martinez to Tigers, prospects to pirates.
Josh Naylor no O Cruz
Cincy is pretty shrewd at acquiring talent, not so great at developing it, deploying it, or keeping it healthy. They probably need a veteran leader since Candelario didn’t work out. Carlos Santana might make more sense than it appears at first glance.
I think Krall should check in with the Phils on Castellanos. They may be anxious to part ways with Nick. I’d offer both Martinez and Pagan in return. that makes the 2025 money comperable. Phils would need to chip in a few $MM on Castellanos 2026 salary and throw in prospect in their 6-10 range.. Then Krall should shop for some controllable bullpen help.
I like Castellanos bat in the lineup but a hard no to his defense. We also know he refuses to DH and being replaced defensively in late innings. IMO no way I give up Martinez and Pagan for a one dimensional player.
Castellanos has negative 0.5 bWAR. Horrible defender.
Josh Naylor
Thinking Outside the box would probably be trying to sell high on Abbott to get a better return on offense, assuming they are somewhat confident in the young arms to keep developing
In GABP you grow pitching, acquire hitting. Can’t afford to trade off all star caliber pitching. Gotta build around their young pitching.
They have multiple young arms, some of them are going away for a bat while they have this window. They should def be seeing what kind of overpay they can get for Abbott. He will regress some unless the Ks come up
The only reason the window exists is because of the rotation. They’d be stupid to shop him with 4 years of team control.
@sportsarerigged
YEP!!!
Abbott for soderstorm is win/win. They both turned a page in their development and are both expendable to their teams
How exactly is Abbott expendable?
Lowder, Aguiar, Williamson, and Spiers are injured. Martinez not long for the team, you know Bob wants his salary gone. Petty is not ready. Ashcraft and Richardson proved they belong in the bullpen. No other real starting prospects above AA.
Next year may be a different story.
Not to mention the ace Hunter Greene missing half the season.
The Reds have a Baker’s Dozen of good-to-excellent SS prospects in the minors. Maybe there’s an OF convert among the group.
Marte is interesting; he absolutely crushed it while juicing and still shows some promise; hopefully he can further develop into a lock-down, everyday 3B…
Lux has a 2025 OPS+ of 101. That makes him mediocre at the MLB level, not garbage. They might be able to trade him fo something more useful.
It just seems weird they trade India because they have “too many infielders” then go get Lux. Definitely not an upgrade on either side of the ball and even though tried at different positions than 2B, could not play them well.
Goes back to the organization having no clear plan on actual team building.
Hope Tito’s health holds out dealing with the sh!tshow he has to deal with.
Nothing weird about trading India for Singer. India was expendable and Singer has been a valuable innings eater just as advertised. With the various injuries our rotation has experienced it turns out it was an excellent trade considering India has not performed anywhere near to his ROY campaign. Thanks for pointing out a good move by Krall!
It doesn’t seem like that big of a win for reds. Singer is just that, an innings eater and not much more than that. Hate to seem him start a playoff game or even pitch in one 😅
That would never happen
He’s on route for a +2 WAR +180 IP season, I’d take that from a 4 or 5 starter any day.
Lux is quite close to garbage, he’s hitting .221 / .312 / .331 since the end of April playing half his games in a hitters park. He had a .500 BaBIP during the first 4 weeks of the season.
He’s streaky thou ! He was broke for first month and first half of last season then was one of the best hitters in baseball second half of 24
Getting Luis Robert really makes sense here and batting him next to Elly. That’s crazy speed toward the top of the order!
I think they will get Robert…the Sox know every Reds prospect by now so I think it will happen
Robert’s skill set makes sense and hope a change of scenery will be good for him but his contract throws a wet blanket on that deal. If he stays unproductive the Reds will have (from memory not verified) wasted $20M on him. Couple that with $15M still owed Candelario it’s something we can’t do.
He’s probably only owed 6-7 million by now and the white Sox have already said to be willing to eat some of that to facilitate a trade. That being said unless he had an insane run down the stretch there’s no way the reds would pick up the 20m option for next year. I’d rather them give up more for a controllable player like ward or even soderstrom if the a’s were moving him.
I agree Ward or Soderstrom would be safe choices. We need an outfielder to bridge the gap until the farm can develop one. The right choice could get hot and propel us into a playoff berth
Robert makes a ton of sense given Reds struggles against LHP.
random post….just read that Schwarber thinks it would be awesome to play for his hometown Reds…sign him in the offseason!
I would love to see that as well.
Would be nice. Outside the cash considerations of Buffalo Bob that Howdy Doody operates under, the Reds never used a constant DH, the organization always use it to route guys through for rest.
In Cincinnati, the DH position is used as an off-day break for starters or filled with 5th infielders/outfielders. They aren’t spending 20M$ + for Schwarber.
JJ Bleday is surplus now on the A’s.
He had 20 homers and 40 doubles last year but got off to a slow start this season.
Tyler Soderstrom, Denzel Clarke, and Lawrence Butler are their starting Outfielders now.
Bleday lost his job when Nick Kurtz got promoted to start at First Base and the team moved Soderstrom to left field.
Bleday is worth kicking the tires on.
Trade Abbott for soderstorm then over pay for ward so angels pay rest of his salary this season, collier or petty should get it done.
Reds get a major power boost to lineup 🔥 and lineup stays in tact for next season
No way the Reds trade Collier.
Why so high on collier ?
Personally I’m never to high on anyone unless it’s a players that’s about to be ready and filling a hole on the team. Except like duno because there isn’t much catching depth
I like the aggressive approach but I also like abbot, I think petty plus could get soderstrom nit sure if the angels will even move ward.
Collier and Stewart are the same player virtually at the same level but Stewart farther ahead. I could see them dealing Collier.
I’ll believe Nick Krall will make a trade for a controllable bat when I see it.
Nick Krall has been the head of baseball ops since 2021; they’ve acquired two total MLB position players in five deadlines; Austin Romine for cash and Joey Wiemer in the Frankie Montas trade. 2023, they were first place in the Central at the deadline and they made one singular trade for Sam Moll.
He’s the type of PoBo who thinks penny slots are too big of a risk; maybe he surprises us, but I have my doubts.
Krall was in charge the whole dick Williams era too and before that
This team as is appears to be a .500 team. I just don’t think they are close enough to World Series contenders to consider going after a bigger name OF bat. They will surely add someone and stop the C. Joe experiment. I think as a Reds fan we have to hope to get healthy and have guys like McClain and Marte produce to expectations. I would rather save the trade chips for the offseason and attempt to build a true contender without Martinez contract.
That is the same approach we have seen for 30 years of no playoff wins. They’ll do it next year never happens.
What has this management team done that causes you to expect anything significant to happen in the offseason?
Last offseason we traded for Singer, Lux and Trevino and free agency brought us Hays, Barlow and Rogers. While none are superstars they have made significant contributions. Not to mention bringing in Tito. We are a few games over .500 where last year we were not. That’s significant in my opinion
I’d love to see them go after the big bat. Just saying that doing so costs a lot of prospect capital and if you don’t look like the best team in even your division, then those resources should be used on more than a 2 month rental. Not many teams are willing to trade impact players at the deadline that have control beyond this year. And I don’t want to get in a bidding war for a rental. When you have to covet assets as a small market does, you make that move when you aren’t in 4th place in your division. I don’t want a playoff win. I want a playoff run with a ring. I don’t see this team as it’s built doing that.
Gotta, it’s nice to have logic on this website. Well said.
They’re close enough to go after a big bat that isn’t a pure rental
This season was supposed to be when CES, Dunn and Hinds would make the majors for good, however none of them have been able. This has created a big gap until next prospects arrive.
WAY too much faith in Dunn and Hinds. Dunn is a full season removed from his career year and hasn’t shown the ability to regain form and hinds never got his K rate under control.
Josh Naylor 1B = contenders