Red Sox righty Lucas Giolito is dealing with an elbow issue and won’t be included on Boston’s roster for their Wild Card Series showdown with the archrival Yankees, manager Alex Cora told reporters at today’s media session (link via Christopher Smith of MassLive.com). Cora did not provide a specific diagnosis or tip his hand as to whether Giolito would be available in subsequent rounds, should the Red Sox advance. Giolito would’ve been Boston’s starter for a potential Game 3 of the series. He’ll see a specialist today, MassLive’s Sean McAdam adds.
Giolito, 31, missed the entire 2024 season due to UCL surgery but returned with a flourish in 2025, firing 145 frames of 3.41 ERA ball. That number is inflated a bit by a poor start to the season; from June 10 onward, he made 19 starts with a 2.51 ERA. Giolito’s 19.7% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate contributed to more tepid evaluations from metrics like FIP (4.17) and SIERA (4.66), but his bottom-line results were unequivocally strong, even if their sustainability merited some skepticism.
Upon reaching 140 innings pitched this season, Giolito triggered a vesting clause in his $14MM club option that converted it into a $19MM mutual option. When he reached that threshold, it appeared all but certain that the right-hander would turn down his end of the mutual option and reenter the market. Suddenly, the health of his elbow clouds that decision. If the issue is serious, the Red Sox will surely decline their end and send Giolito into free agency anyhow, but he’ll return to the open market under very different circumstances than seemed likely even one week ago.
Giolito did experience a velocity drop of some note in September. After averaging 93.4 mph on his heater through the season’s first five months, he averaged 92.5 mph on his four-seamer over his final five appearances — including a season-low 92.1 mph in his final appearance. He still posted a 3.16 ERA over 25 2/3 innings in those outings, but he also issued 18 walks. At first glance, that could’ve been chalked up to fatigue for a pitcher who didn’t throw a single inning in ’24 but was pushing up toward 150 frames in the stretch run — but word of a possible elbow injury now makes that late slide all the more concerning.
The Red Sox figure to have more information on Giolito’s status later in the week, once he’s met with that specialist and discussed any findings with team brass. That’ll determine his availability — or lack thereof — for potential appearances in the ALDS, ALCS or World Series, depending how far Boston progresses in the postseason. For the series at hand, the elbow trouble for Giolito likely thrusts one of the team’s promising young lefties, like Connelly Early or Kyle Harrison, into that Game 3 start. Top prospect Payton Tolle was moved to the bullpen in early September and hasn’t pitched more than three innings in an outing since Sept. 29 as a result, so he’s not likely to get the nod.
“My name is Lucas…I live on the second floor…I live upstairs from you and I think you’ve seen me before.”
… well played.
Not really.
Blast from the past
So the Sox will more than likely start Early or Harrison if the series makes it to a winner take all game 3. Yikes.
I think the game actually starts in primetime, not Early.
First pitch is 6:08 PM local. Nowhere near prime time.
I think the timing is best for the East Coast. Kids can watch their local teams compete and be part of the rivalry. The game will be done by 9pm locally, which i would think is a win for everyone.
I always considered prime time to be around 6-10. Enough time to get home from work, relax, and grab a bite before watching TV.
The Dodgers are basically playing in the same time slot on the West Coast. Where’s the problem?
Another Dodgers Fan
I always considered prime time to be around 6-10.
====================
Off-topic, but a pet peeve of mine. I’ve seen RS friends of mine arguing in favor of earlier starting times, like 6:30. I only got home at 6:15, and by the time I did 1-2 things, it would be 7:00.
Fair enough. The 6pm local start time is about the best time slot you can get, considering the other game times.
Chucky must be a night owl lol.
“Primetime is when the magic happens…”
Wow …. so he pushed himself to get the 140 innings, and now …?
Good thing Early is available to start.
Seems unlikely being that the injury will hurt his free agency
Fever- Definitely helps to have a rookie like Early to step in. Not sure why they would consider Harrison as he has not been very impressive to this point. We are going to need some decent offense to have a chance to move on. The Yankees have been on a roll so I don’t expect 1 or 2 runs are going to keep us going in these games.
Harrison seemed nervous on Friday in a win and in game so while that start could be what he needed to calm down, if there is a game three, Early is the obvious choice given how he’s looked.
Explains the ineffectiveness in his last few starts. Harrison and Early have been decent, maybe throw DeLeon
Probably not the worst thing in the world for the Sox to have 2 of their 3 starters in a best of 3 series in NY be lefties.
ken – Ummmm …. Yanks lead MLB with a .797 OPS vs LHP.
And they lead MLB with a .783 OPS vs RHP.
The short porch in Yankee Stadium won’t be much of a factor. If the Sox pitchers pitch well, they will win.
Rsox – I mentioned this just a couple days ago, Bello has been far worse than Giolito this month.
As for Harrison, he’s been in 3 games with the Sox.
1 good relief appearance against Oakland on the 10th.
1 decent start against the Rays on the 20th
And then he was horrible in his most recent appearance, 7 hits and 3 walks in just 3 innings before getting pulled …. and that was against a Detroit team that has been struggling mightily.
Absolutely zero chance Harrison or DeLeon will start a Game 3. It will be Early hands down, with a short leash as all postseason-series-deciding games are typically all hands on deck.
No, not DeLeon. He did a nice job yesterday, but he isn’t the answer. Harrison, Early and (ugh) Tolle may be the chain of command should it come to that.
let – I agree, I too am shaking my head at those who want De Leon to start a decisive Game 3 in Yankee Stadium in the WC round.
Do they not realize he has a career ERA over 7 ??
Do they not realize he gave up 8 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings against a hungover Tigers team that didn’t have 6 of their best players?
It’s the postseason. If Early isn’t effective, you bring in Slaten early in the game like they did last Friday. You use Tolle for multiple innings. You use Whitlock multiple innings You use Chapman multiple innings.
You don’t throw a 7-ERA stiff who has started only 2 games during the last 4 years.
Early is the only one who has the potential to pull off a win. Sucks that Gio is out of the picture, now we know why he was fading so badly.
And why Giolito was scratched from his scheduled start on Sunday vs. Detroit.
He was scheduled for Sunday in case the game was needed to get into the playoffs. There was zero chance with them clinching beforehand that he would have started Sunday as that would have meant he would have been on short rest for Thursday.
I wonder who takes Giolito’s spot.Early will probably start but who is the 12 pitching spot?Zach Kelly?
Thank f***
😬 not loving this news
Meow – That’s kinda rough. Giolito gave the Sox a very solid 145 innings, let’s be grateful for what he accomplished rather than harp on his unavailability in the postseason.
Remember, the Sox “big SP acquisition” was May. They totally bungled the trade deadline. If they lose in the WC round, it’s on the front office …. not on Giolito.
Fever- Completely agree. Gio pushed as hard as he could and is one of the main reasons we are even in the playoffs.
They don’t make pitchers like they used to.
They don’t pitch like they used to.
Tell Nolan Ryan
York – Agreed!
Back in the day they made pitchers with plywood, titanium-based alloys and mimetic polyalloy.
Now they are made with particle board, plastic and rubber bands.
Weird, and the pitchers today are exponentially better than back in the day. Maybe they were made out of lead, alcohol, and cocaine rather than terminator material.
Kirk – I like your post but whether today’s pitchers are better depends on perspective.
When the original Terminator was released, MLB ERA was 3.81 and this year it was 4.15 so statistically pitchers were better back in the day.
Also most baseball people consider “better” to be starting pitchers going 7-8 innings in virtually every game and relievers pitching more than one inning per game.
Which is why back in the day teams needed only 10 pitchers on the staff, rather than 13 like today.
So either way you look at it, whether it’s ERA or Innings, today’s pitchers are inferior.
Innings total does not equal pitching quality. The way teams deploy pitchers is different. You have more strikeouts now and pitchers today have better stuff overall compared to years ago. I don’t mean Nolan Ryan wouldn’t be good now, I mean Stieb, Petry, Morris, and Sutter wouldn’t as good now. Also, better overall hitter quality now compared to 40 years ago makes a difference of .34 in era look. Also, have to factor in expansion.
FPG
Absolutely terrible news for both Giolito and the Sox. Would not be surprised if we don’t hear from Giolito untill 2027. When you hear elbow, you automatically think TJ or ulnar(?) surgery. I hope for the best , but kind of expect the worst.
cdc – Agreed, it’s unfortunate but not unprecedented to require two TJS within just a few years. And certainly he will lose a lot of $$ if TJS is required again.
Regardless, I feel good about the next two games. I think the Yankees recent run was driven mostly by inferior competition. There’s no reason for me to believe Judge will suddenly perform well in the postseason, and even with recent struggles I like Bello and Crochet in the first 2 games.
FPG
Winning game 1 is obviously a key. Bello this season vs the empire includes 2 7 inning ,no run performances. Though they got him for 4 earned in 5 innings the last time he faced them. Career wise he has a 2.35 era against them. Legends are made in October You are right about Judge,as great as his regular seasons have been, his postseason record has not been up to par.
Got a feeling Romy Gonzales is going to be huge. Going to need Bregman to earn that contract I think the only way he opts out is if he has a massive postseason. ?????
cdc – I want Suarez!!! 49 bombs this year, they NEED his power.
When was the last time the Red Sox leader in homers had only 25 or less? If only they had a homerun hitter like ….. don’t worry, I won’t say it. LOL
Mark my words, the key to winning this series is controlling Stanton. He scares me.
FPG
Yeah, Stanton is dangerous, 7 jacks in 14 games last postseason. His stance in the batters box is, umm , strange, uncommonly closed, and effective. He scares me like Sheffield used to. He’s gigantic!!. I think our biggest advantage is the bullpen. Id like to see the lineup make Fried work and get to there pen. This might be obvious,but I don’t want to see a rookie ( Early) on the mound in Yankee stadium with the season on the line. Is there another choice to start??
cdc – Without question the Sox bullpen is the biggest advantage, even with Wilson running out of gas.
Early is the only true option. Again, it would be a short leash anyway.
There is absolutely nobody on the team that should start Game 3 instead of Early.
FPG
Having to start Early is definitely a mark against Breslow not getting a quality starter at the deadline. It’s always about pitching….. You cannot have enough quality arms. Ever !!! .
I will say even if we had Giolito or another quality starter with the injuries we have sustained,it would be tough to get to and win the WS. I don’t think it would have happened this season.
Seattle vs Philadelphia is my prediction.
Fever- Need to see who is available this offseason, because we do need that bat who is going to launch more balls out of the park. I guess Devers had been the one to play that role, although I think he was more an RBI guy than home runs. I worry that our offense is not going to have enough punch to beat the Yankees. Hope I am wrong.
cdc – I totally agree! Breslow crapped the bed at the trade deadline again, just like he did last year, and just like he did last offseason and the prior offseason. He got lucky that Crochet and Bello stayed healthy. He has to stop acting like he’s the smartest guy in the room, capable of acquiring pitchers that are too risky for others to acquire and then expecting them to stay healthy and pitch well.
Can you imagine tonight’s lineup? Who would have thought their first postseason game in 4 years would have a starting lineup that includes Ref, Romy, Eaton and Sogard!! That’s like a spring training lineup!!!
Uncle – Not to bring Raffy up but since you mentioned him, he has 235 homers in just 8 full years and he’s only 28. So he’s averaging 30 homers a year despite playing nearly his entire career with a very far right field wall. Assuming he will play at least another decade, we are talking 500 homers for him. That’s a homerun hitter!!
He had 35 this year, which is 10 more than any Red Sox player.
Plain and simple, Red Sox need to sign Suarez.
Fever- Would have liked to see them get someone like that at the deadline instead of May. Keeping Buehler and get a bat would have made more sense that getting a starter who is not an upgrade to what we had.
How is Suarez’s defense? I don’t think I have ever seen him in a game, just know the offensive stats.
FPG – nervously awaiting first pitch so glad there’s a post here regarding 2026.
After Bregman and Story opt out I’d be more than happy to repost my pre-season thoughts about bringing Pete Alonso here.
A perfect combo is Alonso and a healthy Casas platoon between 1B and DH. Plus, Alonso is 4yrs younger than Suarez
Pedro- if we are going to maximize the time we have with Crochet and this group of young talent there must be a verifiable stud #2 SP (think Pedro and Schilling).
The two best candidates were available at the trade deadline and that is (in this order) Sandy Alcantara and Joe Ryan.
There must be a combination of Harrison, Password, Arias and Sandlin, along with Eaton, Sogard, and even Abreu to turn that into Ryan or Alcantara.
If Breslow had addressed this issue pre-season or at the deadline we’d be discussing how to beat Toronto right now
Uncle – Suarez is average defensively.
There’s just not many elite sluggers who are plus defenders, the runs they produce with their bat more than makes up for the runs they may give up on defense.
Sad – Yeah Suarez is definitely not a longterm solution, I’m thinking 4 years tops.
I tell you what, I’d be fine with Alonso at first base and Casas at DH. I just don’t want to give up on Casas so quickly, I remember 2023 all too well.
I’m not a huge football fan, but I’ve always loved a quote by Bum Phillips which reminds me of where the Sox are at now.
“Last year we knocked on the door.”
“This year we beat on it.”
“Next year we’re gonna kick the SOB in.”
I really hope next year the door comes down for the Sox!
Sad- I think we would have needed to get a big bat to go along with a solid starter to take down the Yankees and Jays. Unfortunately we didn’t have offense, defense, or a veteran starter to get the job done last night.
Fever- Unfortunately we had too many holes to be a real playoff contender. You can’t expect to win when you give up the most errors in the majors and only have one sure thing starter. Early is going to keep getting better and if he had solid defense behind him it would have been a different game. We just have too little offense to make up for 4 runs.
I am going to be very curious to see what they do in the offseason. We need a starter who is better than Buehler and May as well as a real offensive threat in the lineup. They also need to figure out a way to improve the defense because leading the majors in errors is not going to get you to the World Series.
He hasn’t gone more than 4/5 innings since August..not sure he would be any better than early or Harrison based on his performance the past month..and if it gets to game 3 giolito being there or not likely wouldn’t be a reason the sox would lose…he can’t hit
Blake Snell did that and won a cy young lol hell he is still a 5 and dive pitcher lol
This development probably robs the club of a QO on Giolito. Just like an outside club might not chance a multi-year contract on Giolito with a suddenly iffy elbow, the Sox might not chance him staying for $22 mil. Since the Sox will be first-time payers of the CBT tax for 2025 (they’ve been under the first amount for a few years until now), that would have pushed the draft pick to a later round (maybe after the 4th?). Of course, the upside is if no one is interested in Giolito for the amount he’s looking for, the Sox might be an attractive place for a one-year pillow contract, say $15 mil for 2026.
It all depends on his MRI results obviously. If it’s clear and only rest is needed, it’s business as usual. Giolito gets the Q.O. which is rejected and he fields FA offers. If there are medical concerns, he opts in for $19M.
That $19 million option is a mutual one, so I don’t think the Sox would approve their end of it if there are medical concerns. In fact, a pillow contract under those circumstances might have to be considerably less than $15 mil
It all depends on how serious the medical concerns are. They can’t afford to spend $10 million plus on someone who is going to be recovering most of the season. That has not worked out in the past and it is time to move on from reclamation projects.
Hopefully that won’t be the case and Gio will be ready to go by spring training, whether it is with the Sox or someone else.
Uncle – I’m guessing Gio will try to get by with rest over the offseason, and some team will give him a pillow contract.
Even if he likely needs surgery, I doubt he’s going to go that route without a contract. It’s hard to prove when there’s literally no baseball activity going on for the next 5 months.
How are they going to get thru a potential Division Series or a League Championship Series with two starting pitchers??
It’s kind of a win/win. If he picks up his side of the $19M option, we can decline it. If he declines his side, then that tells me that he has ‘knowledge’ of a better offer, so he will decline the QO.
If I were his agent, and his elbow is really serious, I would take the counter-intuitive route and decline the option in the hope that the RS offer him a QO.
Likely he is going to know the severity of his elbow injury imminently, and if it’s serious…then get it tended to ….I’m thinking it’s going to bad since he recently came back from major surgery. But I hope it’s just inflammation or something.
If it is not serious and he picks up his side, why would we decline it. If they are confident he will be ready for the start of the season, $19 million seems reasonable for how he performed this year. Granted if it is not serious I assume he will be looking for a multi year contract.
On the flip side, if it is serious why would they give him a QO?
Giolito is extremely HR-prone so this injury comes at a very good time.
“injury”
Oh yeah, it’s fabulous news ya big mook.
You’re still here?
Both teams are going with a youngster in game 3. Should be a great series. I wish it was a 7 game series.
Not that they are first options, but are fitts and criswell healthy?
Tang – Neither has pitched since August.
Pivetta is pitching today for the Padres, so he’s not available.
Priester is on the Brewers, so he’s not available.
Newcomb is on the A’s, so he’s not available.
Wacha is on the Royals, so he’s not available.
Buehler is on the Phillies, so he’s not available.
Did I forget anyone?
That’s what I was asking. I didn’t know if they came back and pitched in AAA
Tang – Unfortunately they never did, and Worcester’s season has been over for a couple weeks now.
Just means the Sox have to win the first 2.Whatever it takes.Must score if runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs.
No! 🙂
I’m actually not sure if I trust Bello more than early at this point
It’s illogical that the Red Sox will win this series. Only pure pathos, random luck and the frivolous omnipotence of the baseball Gods themselves can defeat the Yankees.
Thats ok, Dustin May can start in his place, right Bres?
The idea that the starting pitching wasn’t addressed at the trade deadline and then just dfa’ing Buehler was just terrible, in a year when the A.L. pennant and W.S. trophy is up for grabs….
That said, Go Sox!
Sad – Even if the Sox get swept, management will paint this season as a huge success …. and a small portion of the fanbase will agree, sadly.
FPG – I know, management ill say this year was gravy and NEXT year we’re really gonna be ready to go!!!
At what point is the future, the future, and when do you grab the bull by the horns???
Sad – It all depends on the budget. If they believe more player payroll spending will translate to even bigger profits, they will spend. Because they know they have to capitalize with Crochet and Roman in their prime, and while Chapman and Whitlock are still at the top of their game and healthy.
We shall see, but realistically they already have enough talent to make the postseason next year. Whether that talent stays healthy is another story.
Sad.Sox 3
Thats ok, Dustin May can start in his place, right Bres?
==========================
And what were the elegant moves you’d have made, and at what cost? Early, Tolle, and Harrison have probably delivered better overall results than Bieber & Kelly.
Joe – I will say this, bringing in May and Matz was less than useless. DFA’ing Buehler without even trying him in the bullpen was useless. What is it about Breslow’s deadline that you want to defend? it was horrid.
And, maybe just maybe Tolle, Early and Harrison round out a rotation next year. Odds are, all three of them will not all make it., at best one will be a SP2 or SP3.
The players from the farm that are gonna be at Fenway next year are already here (for brevity I include Campbell in this group.).
So, you’re tellling me you couldnt take a combination of Blaze, Tibbs, Harrison, Password, Arias and Sandlin, along with Eaton, Sogard, Abreu and turn that into Joe Ryan or Sandy Alcantara???
And no, you’re 100% wrong. Early and Tolle are not better options for the 2025 Postseason than Bieber or Kelly or even Gallen. Guys that have been in the playoffs and know what to do.
I’m not saying i would have traded Early or Tolle for any of them. If you read my post i’m saying that there was a hole in the SP’ing since the pre-season and it was ABSOLUTELY NOT ADDRESSED at the trade deadline in a year where the path to the World Series is wide freaking open
not the end of the world. i’m a yankee fan and would rather face giolito than early in game 3
Ah yes Breslow, this is what shopping on the injured list gets you.
Quinna – good news is we’ll have Sandoval next season coming back to rotation off 18 months injured, sooooo, thats good, right?
Well, as we said in 2004, gotta Cowboy Up!
Won’t get out the ALDS without Giolito if Red Sox get passed New York. This 3rd game should go to either Early or Criswell. Any updates on Roman Anthony? His presence alone is good for an extra run.
Criswell is injured as well right elbow inflation so he’s not an option. Connelly Early is going to be the game 3 starter if necessary and my guess if they get past the Yankees they will go to Harrison as the 4th starter. It’s not an ideal scenario but I have a lot of confidence in Early. When Early is right he not only strikes guys out but he also gets a lot of ground balls and weak contact. If the Yankee hitters try to launch against him expect a lot of weak ground balls he gets a lot of double play balls. I’m much less confident in Harrison especially against the Yankees he’s a fly ball pitcher who gives up hard contact. Not a good recipe against a mashing team like the Yankees.
Bruin – Thank you, finally somebody here gets it!
Early has been fantastic, there’s no other reasonable options. The bullpen can cover innings, it’s time for guys like Chapman and Whitlock to pitch multiple innings if necessary. It’s not the regular season anymore.
King, I don’t expect Anthony to be back this season. It sounds like Mayer is closer than Anthony who still is just walking on a treadmill. Mayer otoh is taking dry swings and playing catch for what’s that worth.
I was looking at this yesterday, before hearing of the injury. I figured there was no chance of starting Early over Giolito, but the September stats are not remotely close. Gio had a 22/18 K/W over the past 28 days while Early had a 29/4.
Starting a one-month rookie at Yankee Stadium is borderline crazy, but the numbers are compelling. Maybe piggyback off a righty starter?
Idc care if giolito is there so long as the boys are tremendously locked in they will be fine..here we are lfg!