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This week's mailbag gets into the impending free agencies of Josh Naylor, Zach Eflin, Kyle Tucker, Michael King, and J.T. Realmuto, among other topics.
Stephen asks:
Josh Naylor in a mariners uniform next year would be wonderful. What would it take to make it happen?
This mailbag presents several opportunities to exercise my contract prediction muscles in advance of the MLBTR team collaborating on our Top 50 Free Agents list throughout October. So let's try to put a number on Naylor.
Naylor will be 29 next year, and not until June, so you get a good amount of age 28 as well. He's been even better in Seattle than Arizona, and this year's 126 wRC+ seems representative of his abilities for the next few years.
Somehow, Naylor has stolen 28 bags this year in 30 tries despite second percentile sprint speed. As I have said in this space, I love that as a fellow slow runner, but I don't think I'd bake it into his free agent valuation. Defensively, Naylor seems to rate as an acceptable first baseman. Overall, he's a guy you can pencil in for 2.5-3 WAR. He deserves intangible credit, too, in the clubhouse and with Mariners fans. The cherry on top: he's ineligible for a qualifying offer due to the July trade.
If you check out Darragh McDonald's podcast with Jerry Dipoto from earlier this month, they got into the difficulty of attracting free agents, particularly bats, to Seattle. Naylor, though, feels like he sees the ball well at T-Mobile Park, called it a "super cool stadium," and called the team's fans "awesome." In a park that suppresses offense by around 9%, Naylor is hitting .350/.398/.613 in 90 plate appearances since the trade. So if there is a free agent position player on whom the Mariners are going to line up for more than two years, which Dipoto has yet to do with the Ms, Naylor seems like the guy.
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Hi, Tim,
Under your Realmuto assessment, you indicate “He’s a poor pitch framer, but we’re likely to see that drop in importance with the implementation of the ABS challenge system next year.”
I disagree, or, at least, think it may retain a significant part of its value. Excellent framers are going to steal unchallenged strikes AND create hesitation in the minds of some hitters, causing doubts that will increase opportunities there, too.
Currently, they only really mess with umpires. I think this skill will continue to have a noticeable impact on games …right up until it becomes rendered useless by full-time ABS.
No real argument here. You’re right that there will still be a ton of unchallenged pitches and framing will retain some value.
The game between pitcher, batter and umpire will change slightly, but the ability to be a good pitch framer will still count. Each side will figure out a way to use this to their advantage.
I believe J.T. will come back to Philly on a team friendly contract. He still is an excellent handler of a pitching staff and has one of the best pop times on throws to second base.
Alas, for him and other FA like Ranger and Schwarber much will be decided by how well or how poorly the Phillies perform in the postseason. A quick exit from the playoffs might have Cigar Guy (Middleton) and Dombro thinking about breaking up the core group.
Michael King stays in SD along with a reunion of either Naylor or Kim to solve the 1b / SS (depending on where Bog plays) problem in 2026.
King definitely opts out. He’s 30 and has earned only about $17 milion thus far. He needs to sign a long term deal this off season or next. With a $3.5 million buyout, all he would need is a one year $11.5 million contract to match the $15 million of his option. He should be abe to acheive that and probably much better. The Mets gave Clay Holmes a three year $38 million deal to become a starter after a year in which he lost his job as Yankee closer. The Mets deal made sense: even if Holmes did not work out as a starter, he would only be slightly overpaid as a high leverage reliever. King is three years younger than Holmes was, has already had a 4.1 WAR season as a starter, and worse case can be a high leverage reliever, as he was with the Yankees. Holmes, of course, did not receive a QO, and if the Padres made the offer to King that would affect the contracts he would be offered. But I don’t see the Padres doing that: a $22 million pillow contract after an off season, with the prospect of free agency with no compensation after he 2026 season, would be a fine deal for King.
I don’t see King having to seek two for a pillow contract but would he happy if he stays with SD for that 1/22 but he is in line for much more like a floor of 5/125 and then depending on the bidding.
Lmfao!!!! King won’t sniff anywhere near 5/125 with only 1 season under his belt as a starter. If he lands anything over $18 million avv over 5 yrs is overpay and risky
Anthony you are def entitled to LYFAO and decide how you would spend your money but in a few months I think you will find that you are in the minority on this.
Tucker is gonna “try and come back” on Friday. I think, considering how much the Cubs need him, if for some reason he can’t stay out there, I think it’ll make a dent in his FA value. A lot of players play ‘hurt’ when it’s playoff time and heal in the offseason (I.e. Kirk Gibson). That would also affect his value- in a positive way.
Regardless Tucker’s bad season likely cost him $100-150 million. I don’t see him topping $400 million over 12 yrs
The park plays differently at the start of the season vs later in the year… Ask Julio
There should not be a commas before “too.”