Here are three things to keep an eye on headed into the final weekend of the regular season:
1. Playoff races still up for grabs:
Eight teams (the Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners, Phillies, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Padres) have punched their tickets to October already. That leaves four spots up for grabs headed into the final weekend of the regular season. Here’s a quick overview of the teams still fighting for a spot, with playoff odds courtesy of FanGraphs:
- The Red Sox have a 98.7% chance to make playoffs with a magic number of one. Their final regular season series is against the Tigers and is expected to feature starts from Kyle Harrison (3.58 ERA in ten appearances), Connelly Early (1.88 ERA in three starts), and an unnamed third starter.
- The Guardians have an 88.6% chance to make the playoffs with a magic number of two. Their final regular season series is against the Rangers and is expected to feature starts from Slade Cecconi (4.15 ERA in 22 starts) and two unnamed starters.
- The Tigers have an 84.1% chance to make the playoffs with a magic number of two. Their final regular season series is against the Red Sox and is expected to feature starts from Casey Mize (3.91 ERA in 27 starts) and two unnamed starters.
- The Mets have a 77.8% chance to make the playoffs with a magic number of three. Their final regular season series is against the Marlins and will feature starts from Brandon Sproat (3.94 ERA in three starts) and two unnamed starters.
- The Astros have a 28.6% chance to make the playoffs and sit one game back of a playoff spot. Their final regular season series is against the Angels and will feature starts from Jason Alexander (4.83 ERA in 17 appearances) and two unnamed starters.
- The Reds have a 20.2% chance to make the playoffs and sit one game back of a playoff spot. Their final regular season series is against the Brewers and will feature starts from Zack Littell (3.86 ERA in 31 starts), Andrew Abbott (2.80 ERA in 28 starts), and Brady Singer (3.95 ERA in 31 starts).
- The Diamondbacks have a 2% chance to make the playoffs and sit two games back of a playoff spot. Their final regular season series is against the Padres and will feature starts from Zac Gallen (4.70 ERA in 32 starts), Eduardo Rodriguez (4.91 ERA in 28 starts), and Brandon Pfaadt (5.00 ERA in 32 starts).
2. Morton to suit up for Braves one last time:
It’s been a rough year for veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, who posted a 5.89 ERA in 32 appearances with the Orioles and Tigers and recently signed on with the Braves after being designated for assignment and released by Detroit. Morton has hinted at retirement repeatedly over the years, and some have suggested that his latest deal is an opportunity to retire as a member of the club that originally drafted him back in 2002 and the club with which he won a World Series in 2021. Morton has a 3.87 ERA with Atlanta across 124 starts, and his 125th start of his Braves career is scheduled for the club’s final game of the regular season against the Pirates on Sunday. He’ll pitch opposite Johan Oviedo, who has a 3.57 ERA in eight starts this year for Pittsburgh.
3. Will Manoah get claimed?
The Blue Jays made the decision to cut ties with right-hander Alek Manoah earlier this week, and now that he’s been designated for assignment, he’s available to the league’s other 29 clubs for nothing but the remainder of his salary. Of course, a claiming club would have to be willing to pay him his arbitration-level salary for the 2026 season as well. Manoah’s 2025 salary was $2.2MM, and he figures to make the same amount for 2026 if tendered a contract.
The upside Manoah offers is obvious, as he finished third in AL Cy Young voting during the 2022 season off the back of a 2.24 ERA in 196 1/3 innings of work. He struggled badly in 2023 with a 5.87 ERA and 6.01 FIP in 19 starts, however, and he’s made just five starts since then due to Tommy John surgery. Manoah is still just 27 years old and will hardly break the bank, making him one of the more intriguing late-season waiver possibilities in recent memory.
I would think Detroit would take Manoah if anyone would. The price is right. GO TIGERS !
Is it really worth 3 games of salary just to determine if he’s worth tendering a contract to?
My assumption is that it’s unlikely someone is willing to tender him a contract and commit $2.4 million.
If you think he can be fixed, $2.4 million is essentially nothing these days to all but about 5 or 6 teams. Plenty of starters who are not good by any definition are going to get paid a lot more just because they’ve managed to hang around the league for long enough.
Yeah, you could wait and potentially sign him for less as a free agent, but his point is if you are a strong enough believer in him and don’t want to risk him wanting to sign elsewhere, the cost of just claiming and tendering him isn’t *that* prohibitive in either relative or absolute terms.
Right? I mean, Kyle Freeland is getting paid $16M based on one good season he had 7 or 8 years ago, the Nationals are paying someone called Trevor Williams $7M to deliver an ERA north of 6, and the Red Sox gave Patrick Sandoval $5.5M just to rehab this year so they can try and fix him over the winter and next year.
$2.4 is literally nothing unless you are into extreme penny pinching or just don’t think he can be fixed.
Dirty – I think it all depends on how much under the budget they are.
Also what if a team is $2M under the CBT threshold? Taking a flyer on him wouldn’t be worth the CBT penalties the team would incur.
Yes. Absolutely. At that tiny contract considering the potential? Its worth it to at least half the teams in the league.
Good point, if you’re up against the CBT that is a legit consideration.
In fairness Freeland has been a solid pitcher far more than 1 season. He just has had inflated stats. If he were getting paid based off that one year he’d be making like 30-40M cause he was amazing that year.
He’s only going to cost about 50K$ this year to whomever claims him…so it’s unlikely any team that claim him would know whether or not they’ll be 2M$ from the threshold next year already.
Lol. The Tigers, near the bottom in waiver priority, are going to pick up a reclamation project in the waning days of a collapse. Ok. Make that make sense.
I was shocked that the Giants didn’t put in a bid. But Atlanta’s record is worse than SF’s so I imagine they got there first.
Strange end of year in that the Astros by winning yesterday still have a decent chance IF they sweep their last three given Boston plays Detroit (a sweep by either would then put them in never mind what Cleveland does). I’m not saying it will happen but it certainly can.
dewey – I can’t see the Tigers sweeping the Sox, not with the way they’ve both been playing. And Houston is really banged up.
The Sox should give the team MVP award to Scott Barry. LOL
Which play? Or plays? The umpiring has gone down hill with replays… Obviously, replays have just shown us how often umps have been wrong.
dewey – The Springer foul ball that went over the 3B bag.
Obviously I’m thrilled Barry choked, but I really don’t understand why that type of call is not reviewable.
Look foul to me.
Twins Pirates for the 2nd best draft odds is the closest race.
would love to see that Brewers pitching lab get a shot at Manoah…
Absolutely, but cant afford the roster spot and he certainly wont fall all the way through to them.
The Brewers can fix Manoah. If not, they would not be out much.
I think Tolle should start the third game of the Tigers series.
Would make sense if they have it locked up… a win, a Astro loss, two loses by Cleveland… take your pick… Get it out of the way tonight!!
He should only pitch in losing situations right now. If you put him out there with a lead or even to start a game, that’s way too risky. Just my two cents.
You’re suggestion is definitely a consideration if the Red Sox have it locked up. Save Giolito for a playoff game. But if they don’t have it locked in, what do you do Sunday?
Well, then I pitch.
Kind gesture. Knuckleball would be splendid and a willlingness to throw 150 pitches even at the expense of future earnings.
Gary – I think that’s why no starter is named for Sunday, it all depends on whether it’s a meaningful game. If it is, then Gio will be starting..
I think Gio may even be the #2 starter in the postseason, Bello has been awful with a 5.40 ERA this month.
Some good baseball right at the end of the season. It’s coming down to the wire, good luck to everyone may the best teams win!
Acoss1331: When does the best team not win?
If we go by record, not every team with the best regular season wins it all. Sometimes it’s the team that just squeaks into the playoffs wins it all. In that scenario the “best team” doesn’t win.
Cant respond to Blue, but statistically with a 162 game season the chances of the “best” team being determined is 65%, and the season would need to be over 300 games just to get to 75%. So baseball is always a bit of a crapshoot that rarely finds the “best” team.
Acoss1331: Unless the team that wins is the best team in a given game and/or series. Then the best team always wins and renders “May the best team win” trite and meaningless.
If you want to define the best team as the one with the better regular-season record, why do you even want to have playoffs?
Blue Baron,
Um, it’s just good sportsmanship. Wishing everyone their best is just good taste. Nothing trite, just sending positive vibes to everyone.
Well, if a team loses 3-2, but in doing so had 3 HRs robbed by mid-air collisions with pigeons, then I would argue that the best team didn’t win.
Unless the team that wins is the best team in a given game
=========================
Technically not true. I’ve seen plenty of games decided by an opposite field check-swing double. There is far more variance in BB than any other sport.
I saw a RS game earlier this year where a long fly ball hit a bad angle in CF. The batter could’ve run forever until one of the OF finally caught up with the ball. Balls ricocheting off of the pitchers’ mound or one of the bases.
All the time, and that’s the beauty of baseball. It’s a hard enough game that being the better team overall gives you assurances of exactly nothing on any given night.
Dirty – Yeah that’s kind of an absurd notion that the best team always wins. If that were true, then the best team would go undefeated.
Injuries, starting pitcher, opponent, days off, player rest, bad umpire calls, the list of reasons why the best team doesn’t always win is endless.
DirtyWater: But as I said to Acoss, if you define the best team as that which plays better in a given game and/or series, then the best team always wins.
Is there another definition that makes sense to you?
That’s a purely retroactive application though and it’s not hard to highlight how silly that is.
The White Sox are 58-101. The Padres are 87-72. Last Friday, the White Sox beat the Padres. Do you really want to attempt to argue that the White Sox are a better team than the Padres?
No, but I would argue that they were that day. Why do you have an issue with that?
Or, if a team loses 3-2, but had 5 HRs taken away by fan interference (let’s say the same fan), then I’d argue that the best team didn’t win.
No, not at all. I would say the same thing. They were better that day. But being the better team for 9 innings doesn’t mean they’re actually the better team.
DirtyWater: A comment which just completes the circle back around to the definition of “the better/best team.”
I disagree. Being the better team on one day does not mean you’re the better team. If that were true, then you would be arguing that the White Sox are better than the Padres, which you already conceded isn’t the case.
But what’s your definition of the better/best team then if it’s not the team that wins?
When a lower-seeded wild card team defeats a division winner in the LDS or LCS, is the team that won or the team that lost better?
Well, that is why they play a 162-game season. That creates a pretty large body of evidence as to who the better teams are.
There is an insane level of variance on single-event outcomes like any one particular at-bat or game, but not as much in a 6 month long season. In most cases, a team’s W/L record is going to be pretty indicative of how good they are. Of course there are exceptions to everything, but it’s not like football which has a short enough season that insane luck can persist all the way through the regular season.
Dirty – :O)
So it’s Sox vs Yanks again, can’t wait!
Cora’s brother and former manager definitely helped out the Sox by not pinch hitting anyone in the 9th. It probably is a better matchup vs Yanks than vs Cleveland. Especially because the Sox have a stronger lineup vs lefties, which means Fried/Rodon.
Let’s hope for some more good memories to come!
Can’t wait, bring ’em on! Even if we were to go on and get swept in the ALDS, I’d be very happy if we could send them packing. Any year we get to send NYY home is a good one to me!
But of course, hope we can manage more than that, but don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves. One day at a time. Very excited for Tuesday!
28% for the Astros?! The stats don’t know they’re playing the Angels. The Angels are fighting for a higher draft spot which they’ll just waste signing an undervalued prospect anyway. They do it every year. You can bank on a sweep.
The Astros don’t control their own destiny. They are a game behind and don’t have tiebreakers over anyone, so just sweeping LAA doesn’t do it for them. They also need the Red Sox or Tigers to get swept too. The way Boston and Detroit are both playing it is highly unlikely one is capable of sweeping the other right now.
Yes, the stats do indeed know who they’re playing.
Buttermaker: Any team can beat any other team on a given day, and no team intentionally tries to lose.
Buttermaker: Now it’s 0%. 🤣
You say “Alek Manoah”
I say “Anthony Recker”
Recker? I hardly know her!
Manoh has Jed’s music written all over it
It sure doesn’t feel like 98.7%…
Ahhhh… the beauty of another Red Sox fan in his Sixties!!! (Or close to it) even with 4 in our pocket the thought still comes us for some of us…. LOL….
This has AA written all over this. Go get em!
With 3 days left to go why claim Manoah and have to clear a 40 man roster spot? Let him go unclaimed and see if anyone is willing to offer anything more than a minor league invite to training camp
The only reason to claim him is to guarantee he’s yours. Somebody in the bottom half of Waivers will claim him; Manoah won’t make it to a Playoff-bound team.
He wouldn’t be eligible to be on a postseason roster anyway.
For a second I wondered if the Mets would claim Manoah and start him as a Hail Mary on Saturday or Sunday, being that they have no one announced to start either game and no one lined up properly to make the Saturday start. I breathed a sigh of relief when I saw he hasn’t thrown a pitch all year.
Maybe they’ll start Gwight Dooden. He might be quite good enough. Let’s go!
The A’s outlook post shows them at 45 mil committed to 2026 (plus some arbitration money).
Offense is looking pretty good.
They need a couple of project / bounce back SP.
Why not this guy?
I’ll be curious as to who claims Manoah. It’ll probably be a bad team unfortunately (first dibs process). His 2.97 ERA across 7 starts at AAA this year is tantalizing. It makes me wonder why on earth did Toronto give up on him?
He’s topping out at 91MPH with the speedball and underlying stats aren’t good. (WHIP, BB9, K9 all poor)
Toronto isn’t foolish. Manoah wanted to breakup.
I don’t think many (if any) would be turned off about the money. I think the issue is if it would be worth the roster spot instead of protecting a much longer cost controlled player from the Rule 5.
If Manoah gets to the pirates they should claim him. Pirates have a decent base for starters are the moment but getting someone at his price with his previous success is pretty good. May not work out but even if he can be a blow out long relief it is not horribly bad.
“Gets to the Pirates”…I doubt the Pittsburgh Pirates are willing to change course and drastically increase payroll…
Just to cover the Manoah post-game spread. Just for a reference, Canadian McDonald’s have lost over 20% of their sales with the Manoah departure.
Red Sox 100%.
Hayzee!! Two things I’m happy for… 1- Boston is in the playoffs!!! And 2- we can save you now for game 1!!! Not sure if your righty?? But between you and Garrett we’re gonna match up to every hitter!!! ( other plays 1B when not pitching) 98mph to eephus!!! Talk about off balance….