Right-hander Brad Keller is slated for free agency but would seemingly be very happy to be a Cub again next year. “Chicago is my favorite city,” Keller said, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “I love being in Chicago. I love playing for the Cubs. This is definitely a place that I want to come back to and enjoy. I know a lot of these guys are returning to this clubhouse, and I feel like there’s something special here. I would love to be a part of it, for sure.”
Keller, 30, is going to have a far more robust market than he did a year ago. Coming into 2025, he had to settle for a minor league deal with the Cubs. He spent a lot of 2023 on the injured list due to shoulder problems and then had surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in the fall of that year. He was back on the mound in 2024 but tossed 41 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Red Sox with a 5.44 earned run average.
No one was willing to give him a big league spot last winter but he has raised his stock considerably since then. The Cubs added him to their 40-man roster after the Tokyo Series but before domestic Opening Day. He went on to toss 69 2/3 innings out of the Chicago bullpen this year with a 2.07 ERA. He struck out 27.2% of batters faced, limited walks to an 8% clip and got opponents to hit grounders on 56.1% of balls in play.
The ERA is probably a bit misleading. Keller’s .243 batting average on balls in play and 81.6% strand rate were both the fortunate side. But his 2.93 FIP and 3.04 SIERA still suggest it would have been a great year even with neutral luck from the baseball gods. The Cubs moved him into a leverage role as the year wore on, with Keller eventually earning three saves and 25 holds. He made the postseason roster and tossed 5 2/3 playoff innings with just one run allowed.
Some teams may still have some hesitations about committing to Keller based on one strong season but we’ve seen clubs spend on players in these kinds of situations before. Last winter, Jeff Hoffman got three years and $33MM from the Blue Jays after two good years in Philadelphia’s bullpen. He actually had higher offers from Baltimore and Atlanta before concerns about his shoulder tamped down his market somewhat. The prior offseason, Robert Stephenson was able to get the same $33MM over three years from the Angels after just half a season of dominance with the Rays.
It’s also possible some team envisions Keller as a possible starter next year. He was largely in the rotation with the Royals from 2018 to 2022, with some decent results in there as a ground ball guy. He had a 3.50 ERA over the first three years of that span. His 16.8% strikeout rate was subpar but he got grounders at a 52.1% clip. His ERA rose above 5.00 in his final two years in Kansas City and he had his aforementioned injury-marred 2023 and uninspiring bounceback season in 2024.
Some pitchers have been put back into starting roles after reaching free agency lately, with mixed results. Seth Lugo got $15MM over two years from the Padres but then opted out of the second year of that deal and got $45MM over three years from the Royals. Last winter, Clay Holmes got three years and $38MM from the Mets. He had a longer track record of relief success than Keller but hadn’t really started in the majors. That deal has worked out well so far, with Holmes posting a 3.53 ERA in 165 2/3 innings this year. Jordan Hicks, another ground ball specialist, also got $44MM over four years but his rotation conversion didn’t go nearly as well. Reynaldo López got $30MM over three years from Atlanta and the first year went great but the second year was marred by injuries.
Whether or not any club wants to try Keller in the rotation remains to be seen. Even as a pure reliever, he has a case for a strong multi-year deal. That’s more than the Cubs like to spend on the bullpen. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations five years ago, the club hasn’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever. As shown in MLBTR Contract Tracker, Hoyer has only once given out more than $5MM, which was a $9MM deal for Héctor Neris.
The club clearly prefers to find diamonds in the rough, like they did by getting Keller in his minor league deal last winter. Perhaps that means Keller will get paid elsewhere as the Cubs look to find another Keller in the bargain bin. If they do want to bring him back, they should have the ability to do it. RosterResource estimates that the Cubs had a $206MM payroll in 2025 with just $136MM slated for next year’s roster.
They will have other needs, including the rotation. It’s also possible they look to re-sign Kyle Tucker or perhaps make another run at Alex Bregman. But the bullpen should also be a focus this winter. In addition to Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Ryan Brasier, Michael Soroka and Aaron Civale are impending free agents. Andrew Kittredge could be added to the list, though he has a $9MM club option for next year with a $1MM buyout. Colin Rea has a $6MM club option with a $750K buyout. In short, bolstering the bullpen will be on the to-do list this winter.
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images
This is the best news I’ve heard this week. I think he deserves a big raise and a decent contract and is a must re sign. I’m still on the fence about about picking up Kittredge’s 9 million dollar option but giving Keller his props and a big raise should be #1 on Jed’s to do list. He solidified the back end of the pen all year and with Palencia, Little and Hodge gives the Cubs a lot of back end options. Maybe they don’t need a true Closer any more and Jed gets off the hook for 2026 depending on what happens with the lockout.
Sure, he loves Chicago, but does he love Chicago enough to go to the other team in town? That will be his real test to how much he loves Chicago.
Been there and done that. Read the article. That’s where the Cubs got him from and they obviously did nothing for him. Katz was horrible at his job. A complete zero.
I was not serious at all about him returning to the White Sox.
Hoyer should give him a two-year deal. Keller was a reliable arm in the bullpen. This is an easy yes.
He was throwing low to mid 90’s when the Cubs picked him up. Same with Pomeranz. After that the Cubs had them throwing mid to high 90’s so I don’t blame them for not going more. I thought the whole Thielbar signing was a nothing burger but Pomeranz and Thielbar turned out to be valuable all season. I gotta give Jed his props there and I think Dane Dunning might be a candidate for such a revival next year. Hottovy and the Cubs staff seem to be able to get max effort out of pitchers other people get rid of for some reason. I saw Keller in ST and couldn’t believe it was the same guy I saw pitch against the Sox for the Royals. I don’t what the plan is for Thielbar and Pomeranz but Little makes it easier. With Steele coming back, Horton stepping up and Taillon and Boyd back again, I wouldn’t say no to a guy like Cease as I think he would benefit greatly by pitching with the Cubs defense behind him. But all in all, The Cubs really don’t need to be big spenders in FA and I don’t know what I’d do with Imanaga’s option either. You could make points either way. That said he is immensely popular so IDK where I would go. The Cubs set themselves up to the CBA for a reason, And it seems to be working out for them.
Starting pitching is hard to find. So a big market teams like the Cubs should 100% pick up Shota’s option.
I think Pomeranz probably comes back, he has a history with Counsell and Hoyer plucked him out of Tacoma. I’d rather have Keller back than Kittridge, and I’m curious if they could build Keller back up to give them 2 innings once every series (so 108 for the year).
I also think they bring Imanaga back because $19M isn’t that far off from #3 starter money and who knows how long it will take Steele to shake off the post-injury rust. Also, they might be in the market for that Japanese 3B being posted, and dumping Shota would look bad.
You have some good points unc, but I wouldn’t trust Cease to regain his form. Watching him a number of times, he seems to have serious issues with his command and his confidence. Often his pitch counts make it difficult to get thru the 5th inning – if he makes it that far.
I’d try to get insurance for Shaw – I’m not sold on his bat.
And I’d try to move Happ to Pittsburgh, or Cleveland or the Reds. We can sacrifice Happs defense for more consistent offense out of LF.
Keller definitely should be resigned and I’d also want another SP or two- if Shota is back.
I just said a guy like Cease in other words a guy with #2 potential at least. I know it’s not a popular opinion but I still say let Caissie play, Trade Ballesteros and anybody else except Wiggins in the pipeline to get a controllable guy. As good a hitter as he is he’s a DH at best. With Busch here covering the only position you could put him( I’m sorry, I just don’t think he’ll make it at C but would love to be proven wrong) he makes an attractive trade chip at 22. Kelly and Amaya are a good tandem and he’s not really needed there either. The Cubs need another shut down guy who can pitch game or 2 of any series. Wiggins might BE that guy but he’s not there yet. They just need a minor tweaking, Not a big splash.
He must be a deep dish guy!
If he’s a deep dish pizza guy then he’s yet to have the original Chicago style pizza. Which is tavern style pizza. Deep dish pizza is just a casserole
This is America. You are free to have poor taste in pizza.
Log, even though I appreciate all styles of pizza, deep dish not only wouldn’t be my preferred option, I agree it’s not Chicago pizza. Tavern style, cut into squares, thin crust is Chicago pizza.
It’s both Chicago pizza. 🙄
The “I love it here” comments from pending free agents crack me up.
What’s he gonna say? “I hate this rat-infested city, Craig is an idiot and the worst manager in baseball, and the Ricketts family can line up and kiss my rear end”?
Wouldn’t be a good idea if he’s looking to drum up teams to compete against each other.
He was reliable and had a very good season, I would love to see him return to the Cubs. And speaking for a lot of Cubs fans yes, the Ricketts family can line up and kiss our rear ends. After raising hopes by trading three guys for Tucker fans were optimistic until POBO Jed Hoyer obediently dumped Cody Bellingers $30 million salary. Tommy Ricketts said it wasn’t a salary dump but the money was being “repurposed “. It wasn’t “repurposed” for anyone at the trade deadline, maybe the Ricketts family bought some more buildings in Wrigleyville. The team with no bench burned out physically and mentally. The downward spiral has begun
Ricketts has set the budget at the Luxury Tax line for every year up to and until he recoups the money he spent on fixing up and modernizing the Stadium and Neighborhood. It’s Hoyer’s job to spend it wisely and it’s more than enough to field a WS team. I don’t blame him. His TV station needs to start pulling in revenue to spend like the Dodgers and without the Cubs it’s pretty bad. Horrible in fact. I get it for the Cubs and immediately drop it after the last game. It’s only entertaining 3 hours a day 6 months a year. Not a real revenue provider.
And don’t forget it’s not even Tom Ricketts money until he and his 3 silver spoon siblings inherit Joe Ricketts money and the team. Tom, Karen, Chad and Stevedave. All 4 are silver spoon kids to Joe Ricketts.
Someone is a bit jealous. What’s wrong, daddy not love you enough?
Any team should be able to win on the budget Ricketts provided. Poor decisions from the front office cost the Cubs.
Most of your take is wrong, but brother, the glass is half full and rising. Cheer up and ditch the cynicism; it’ll eat you alive.
I have the same feeling. These beat writers need to come up with articles on a daily basis and just ask open door questions to meet their quota of at least 500 words per article. Real journalism doesn’t exist any more.
I believe most readers need to whine about something because their life sucks.
Let him go. He won’t repeat what he did this year.
He doesn’t need to repeat it. If he comes reasonably close to it, it’s worth it
The only thing I remembered about Keller is how he almost blew the 3rd game of the Padres series. A couple of hit batmen, a home run, geez, I was shouting at my computer when he was finally pulled. But if you all say he’s worth the money, I trust you. Still……
As for the other items that need fixing, Shota needs a boost in confidence or else let him walk/trade him. Let Tucker walk as well. Heck, I’d like to see the Cubs bring back Bellinger. But that’s me.
I’m excited about Cade Horton, and if Tucker walks and no other outfielder is signed, then I’m hopeful Owen Caissie will get his chance to sign.
As for pitchers, do you think Steele will be well enough to return? I honestly didn’t picture him coming back full strength until late in the year, possibly 2027.
The Cubs definitely need a better bench. I also feel that blasted All Star game ought to be played at the end of the season after the playoffs like the NFL does. How many times have players gone into that game hot only to fizzle out afterwards? It’s frustrating because the Cubs were on a roll but then afterwards almost nothing went right.
Ok, I’ve ranted long enough.
Well in all fairness if it wasn’t the All Star Game during a 162 game season the players need SOME kind of break during the year. Even though the All Stars don’t get those days off it’s mostly a big party for most of those guys and a lot of them get days off from their teams AFTER the break.
As for Steele I’m hoping he will be back in June. April will be 1 year since his surgery and he should be throwing during ST. I’m hoping he uses the rehab time to learn a change up or 3rd pitch. Coming back as a reliever for a time could also be an option as the Cubs seem set for starters. Horton, Boyd, Taillon, Assad, Rea, is a start. Noland, Sanders and Wiggins lurking in AAA make it a deep staff without Steele and Imanaga.
Imanaga is going to cost 57 million to keep. Which Imanaga are you getting? The one who got lit up in Sept. -Oct.? Or the one who was very good 2024-most of 2025? For that kind of money you better be sure.
Hoyer has options and they include is there a better FA P to spend 57 million dollars on than Imanaga who can start a Playoff game? I think there will be. Hoyer should have money to sign a starter and he surely has the prospect capital to trade for one. I don’t really trust his ability to do either but it’s no secret how I feel. maybe he’ll surprise me but I don’t feel great about it right now.
Good observations. Thanks for being kind to my post!
Darragh, first of all, I’m a Cubs fan but I’m not delusional enough to think that tightwad Tom Ricketts will re-sign Tucker. Even at what should be a much reduced price after the combination of injuries (again), long hitting slump (which can’t be blamed on injuries b/c he had his best month after the broken bone) and his lackluster performance in the postseason (again), I don’t see it happening. Secondly, no, they are not going after Bregman and I wouldn’t even call what they tried this past offseason as anything serious, since they finished 4th in the bidding, behind Boston, Detroit & Houston. Look, Hoyer got his extension so his aggressiveness is gone. That was evident at the deadline.
I’m curious to see how Tucker’s market unfolds. The Soto market last year was created by the dynamic of both NY teams bidding on his services, with both feeling they must keep/get him. The best thing to happen to Soto was his trade to the Yankees, as I believe Soto was always the Mets target. The Yankees likely would have tapped out somewhere in the $500 million range on Soto if he was a free agent coming from another team. That drove Soto’s market higher. I don’t see that same dynamic again. Sure, I can see the Mets and Yankees interested, but not at the Soto level. Maybe the Cubs best approach is to see what the market offers, and then step in at the last moment. The Cubs and Ricketts may be able to afford him.
I’m curious as to what drives people to be so sure Shota is a 3.
A 4, I’m good with, but a 3 is a little much. That’s what his metrics support, as well.
When he is awful, he is really awful.
57 million is a lot.
I’d be fine with Horton, JT, Rea, Boyd and Assad in no particular order