It was less than a year ago that the Cardinals made the decision to move three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to first base after the veteran slugger indicated he wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade clause to leave St. Louis ahead of their impending rebuild. That decision was intended to open up the catcher position so that younger players more tied to the future of the franchise, like Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, could get reps at the position and prove themselves capable as regulars in the majors.
Getting opportunities for those young players was a sensible goal, but it didn’t come without risk. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at first base would be a big ask for any player, and while Contreras has long been a talented hitter he’s not always been able to produce enough offensively to justify a role as an everyday first baseman. Contreras also had just 11 appearances (three starts) on his resume at the position prior to 2025, the most recent of which had come all the way back in 2019, so learning a new position would place additional challenges on the veteran as he headed into his age-33 season.
At first, the experiment looked like it was poised to be a failure. Contreras came out of the gate ice cold in 2025, with a .145/.198/.237 slash line in his first 82 trips to the plate that was difficult to stomach from a first baseman. A month into the season, more than 65% of respondents to an MLBTR poll regarding Contreras’s future suggested that he would be either a league average hitter or worse in 2025, while just 34% of respondents believed Contreras would be able to rebound to his typical numbers. Fortunately for St. Louis, Contreras managed to overcome expectations and do just that. Flash forward to the end of the season, and Contreras is now coming off a solid .257/.344/.447 campaign. His 124 wRC+ this year is right in line with his career mark of 122 and only slightly below the 129 he’s posted to this point in his Cardinals career.
While that rebound from Contreras is certainly encouraging, a 124 wRC+ from first base isn’t exactly the sort of production that one would hope for. Among baseball’s 25 qualified first baseman, Contreras ranked just 12th by wRC+ and actually wound up tied with teammate Alec Burleson, who is entering arbitration for the first time this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Burleson for a salary of just $3.5MM in 2025, a figure that comes in well below the $36.5MM Contreras is owed over the next two years. Given that they can get similar production for much less money in-house, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals were hoping once again to trade Contreras this winter. For his part, Contreras has stated he prefers to remain in St. Louis but will at least consider waiving his no-trade clause this winter.
While Contreras’s production this year might not be commensurate with his salary now that he’s a first baseman, that doesn’t mean there’s no room for optimism. In fact, there’s plenty of positive signs in Contreras’s performance that leave the door wide open for him to deliver at a high level offensively in the coming years. From May 1 onward, Contreras hit a much more robust .268/.357/.480 with a wRC+ of 136. That’s good for the fifth-highest wRC+ in baseball among first basemen during that period, behind only Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Olson, and Michael Busch.
Many players would look a great deal more impressive if you ignored their worst month of the year, of course, but Contreras’s underlying numbers reveal reason for further optimism. The veteran’s .369 xwOBA this season is more or less in line with his numbers since his offensive breakout season in 2022, and a near perfect match for the .370 wOBA he posted in 2024. That performance came with a wRC+ of 141, and there’s at least some reason to believe he could match that performance again in the future.
Contreras’s 13.8% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate this year were both career highs despite a .190 ISO that was one of the weakest of his career. That drop in ISO and walk rate that dropped to just 7.8% this year were the weakest parts of Contreras’s profile as a hitter this season, and a look at his swing decisions this year reveals the cause of that flaw. Contreras’s contact rate spiked to 73.6% this year, the highest its been since 2018. That’s not a bad thing in isolation, but digging a little deeper reveals that almost all of that improvement came on pitches outside of the strike zone, while he actually swung at pitches inside the zone far less often than he had in the past. Contreras took a swing at just 65.7% of pitches in the strike zone this year, a nearly four-point drop from the previous three seasons.
With Contreras’s impressive underlying power metrics this year, it’s certainly possible that being more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone could allow him to access more of that power in games than he did this year. Even if that adjustment doesn’t come, however, one major feather in Contreras’s cap is his work with the glove at first base this year. Despite learning the position on the fly this past winter, the veteran posted +6 Outs Above Average this season. Just three first basemen (Olson, Ty France, and Carlos Santana) beat that mark this season, and it stands to reason that Contreras could build on his performance next year now that he has more experience under his belt.
Whether Contreras ultimately ends up finishing out his contract with the Cardinals in St. Louis or getting traded at some point over the next two seasons, it’s hard to view the contract as anything other than a success for the club. In the first four seasons of his five year deal with the organization, Contreras has hit .261/.358/.459 (129 wRC+) with 8.2 fWAR and 8.9 bWAR in 344 games for the Cardinals despite injuries and multiple moves off of his natural position. While the incoming ABS challenge system next year and the lack of catching depth around the league could make the idea of Contreras moving back behind the plate appealing for some potential suitors on the trade market, Contreras proved himself to be a quality first baseman in 2025 and should be able to provide value in that role regardless of if he does so in St. Louis or elsewhere.
Both Willson and Burlson are professional hitters who care about their batting skills. They both make the Cardinals better, although Contreras should work on his anger management issues. I just don’t think there is a good trade market for Willson without paying his salary down, since he is a below average defensive catcher.
He’s not a catcher anymore hes a 1b. I am sure that was mentioned somewhere……
While I appreciate the comical, smart a$$ answer, I believe what he was trying to say is that he likely has more trade value for a team looking for a catcher, as he (as the article pointed out) is just an average, middle of the road hitter at 1B. Not a lot of teams will be bending over backwards to trade for an average, middle of the road hitting 1B on a large contract who is slightly below average defensively as well. I’d guess he’s finishing out his contract in St. Louis either way.
“slightly below average defensively”
The article stated he was in the top four defensively among first basemen last year With a chance to get better with experience. Also, he was fifth in wRC+ among 1B after May 1.
Contreras’ days as a catcher are over. And at $17m/year and a .791 OPS/ 2.6 WAR, his contract represents a solid market value.
Contreras is not a catcher anymore. He is a 1B. A well above average defensive 1B who also happens to hit much better than the average 1B.
Contreras has been an excellent Cardinal and happy to keep him around. But Burlesons best position is 1b and my guess is thats also Gormans best position. I would be ok with trading Burleson I think his value is about at its peak hes as good as hes ever going to be and hes still cheap with 3 years of team control.
Gorman’s best position seems to be in Triple-A.
Burleson belongs at first but good luck dumping Contreras on someone
The best scenario is Herrera catching, Burleson and Contreras splitting 1b and DH. But is Herrera able?
Unfortunately Herrera is a horrendous defensive catcher. I wouldn’t be opposed to trading him for the right price, as he is injury prone and can’t play any position on the field well. Cards can’t keep all these guys around who can’t play a position but are decent hitters. You need one of those at most. Gotta trade for whatever they can get in the offseason and move on. The team is nowhere near competing, and they do still need to make everyday playing room for Weatherholt and possibly Josh Baez, who, if he continues this progression, could finally give us an every day RF.
If Wetherholt and Baez force the issue, 2B and RF will be available for them.
As usual Nick, you are horrible at presenting the facts in a cogent manner and far too often get the facts wrong.
Contreras was 6th in wRC+ out of fifteen 1B with a qualifying number of PA at that position.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&sea…
What you quoted was how players who had at least some PA while playing at 1B and a qualifying number of PA overall.
Even then, you blew it by not telling the entire story and instead presenting your opinion. As Paul Harvey would say, “And now for the rest of the story”. Contreras was 12th out of 25 players with a qualifying number of PA overall and that had played at least a portion (not starts) of 50% of their games at 1B. He was well above the average of 113 wRC+ for that group of players.
That combined with Contreras being 24% above average for all players means there was nothing to indicate that there was more to be hoped for. He had a fantastic season that every fan and his GM should be quite happy with. Would it have been nice if he repeated what was a career year at the plate in 2024 at age 32? Of course. Is that a reasonable expectation or something that makes the very good season he had in 2025 disappointing? Of course not.
Last, but not least, Burleson did not have a qualifying number of PA at 1B. He also had a below average season overall in his 3rd full season in the majors. In no way did his 1.8 WAR season indicate he should replace Contreras at 1B. In fact, that Burleson continues to be bad defensively at 1B and in the OF is an indication that Burleson should be moved to DH and Contreras, who was playing 1B regularly for the 1st time in his career, should continue at 1B. Prior to 2025 Contreras had 4 starts at 1B and 3 of those were in 2017 or before and his Feilding Run Value at 1B was in the 77th percentile and his OAA was a 6 this season.
Stick to the facts and keep your opinion to yourself, especially when it’s not supported by the players actual performance.
They went after the wrong Contreras
…
HE SHOULD STILL BE CATCHING
Oh I’m sorry he doesn’t measure up to Yadier Molina #BUM move him to 1B so we can make Jordan Walker try to learn how to play OF and kneecap Walker’s confidence so he forgets how to hit, too
There’s 15 things that went wrong moving him to 1B. That alone should get Mozeliak fired for even suggesting it
I mean he moved to first for good after he broke his arm on a backswing and Walker was playing 3rd base and the outfield before the move, are the other 15 things that went wrong things that actually happened or more of just what you think happened?
I think the guy has some value on the trade market but not very much. If the cards can find a way to trade him, they’re probably gonna have to pay about 4 1/2 million each season for the last two years of his contract at least.