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Reds Sign Michael Toglia To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have added first baseman Michael Toglia on a minor league deal, according to his MLB transactions log. The 27-year-old was non-tendered by the Rockies in late November. Toglia split the 2025 season between Triple-A and the majors.

Toglia had the makings of a viable three-true-outcomes bat following the 2024 campaign. He popped 25 home runs in 116 games while walking at a strong 11.8% clip. The power and patience came with a 32.1% strikeout rate, but the end result was a passable 98 wRC+. Toglia’s shaky contact skills cratered to begin this past season. He posted a 39.1% strikeout rate in the first two months of the year, earning a demotion. He bounced up and down between the big-league club and the Isotopes for the rest of the season.

Colorado took Toglia in the first round of the 2019 draft. He flashed big power at every level of the minors, though it came with concerning swing-and-miss tendencies. Toglia debuted with the club in 2022, playing sparingly that season and the next. He totaled six home runs over his first 76 games. The 2024 breakout was closer to what Toglia had shown in the minors, particularly with the free passes. He had a walk rate of at least 12% at every minor league stop before his promotion. It hadn’t reached 8% in his first two MLB stints.

Toglia has shown the ability to do real damage when he makes contact. He ranked in the 98th percentile in barrel rate and the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2024. The contact just hasn’t come consistently enough. Toglia’s had a whiff rate above 33% in all four MLB seasons. He had the fourth-lowest contact rate among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances last year.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Yankees, Cody Bellinger “At An Impasse” In Negotiations

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The Yankees’ attempt to reunite with free agent Cody Bellinger seems to have hit a wall. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports the two sides are “at an impasse.” New York is moving forward as if Bellinger is signing with another team and will look to make additions elsewhere, adds Olney.

Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reported on Thursday that the Yankees had an offer in to Bellinger for more than $30MM a year. Olney reiterated that figure, while also mentioning that the proposal on the table was for five years. Bellinger and his team (he’s a Boras Corporation client) have been pursuing a deal for seven years, while reports had New York preferring something in the four-to-five range.

A contract of five years at more than $30MM per season would be right in line with the deals inked by the top free agent bats this offseason. Pete Alonso got five years and $155MM from Baltimore. Kyle Schwarber returned to Philadelphia on a five-year, $150MM deal. The length of New York’s most recent reported offer would be an obvious sticking point for Bellinger’s camp, given their known preferences, but Olney added that they’re also looking to do better than the $30MM AAV.

Bellinger seemed to be New York’s main priority this offseason. Kyle Tucker is the premier hitter on the market, but reports suggested he was the Yankees’ backup plan to Bellinger. The club was only recently linked to Bo Bichette and has not been significantly connected to Alex Bregman.

The now 30-year-old Bellinger excelled in his lone season in the Bronx. He slashed .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs across 152 games. Bellinger made the most of the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, hitting .302 with 18 home runs at home. His OPS slipped by nearly 200 points on the road.

The Cubs were the most recent team to join the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors. The Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Angels, Blue Jays, and Phillies have all been connected to the free agent outfielder at various points this offseason. A return to Chicago would be fitting after the club twice gave Bellinger a home when the market went cold on him.

After the Dodgers cut ties with the 2019 NL MVP, the Cubs added him on a one-year, $17.5MM pact for 2023. Bellinger hit a career-high .307 and posted a 135 wRC+ in his first year in Chicago, but it wasn’t enough to garner a long-term deal from other teams the following offseason. The Cubs brought him back late in the winter on an opt-out-laden three-year deal. The club would ship him to the Yankees after just a season in what amounted to a salary dump, so maybe it isn’t a perfect homecoming.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Red Sox Notes: Bregman, Outfield, Injuries

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Fenway Fest is in full swing. The fan event has yielded plenty of interesting tidbits through interviews with various players and executives. Here’s a rundown of some of the highlights, including a show of support for Alex Bregman from a former teammate and impressive candor from an infielder with an uncertain future.

A Bregman update, of course

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow can’t seem to go a day without answering questions about the free agent third baseman. “We’re going to do everything we possibly can to add more offense,” Breslow told reporters, including Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald. “We saw the impact Alex (Bregman) had last year, on the field, in the clubhouse, in the community, someone that fits our team really well. He’s still out there, which means we have a chance.”

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported last weekend that the club has made an “aggressive” offer to Bregman. The Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Tigers have also been connected to the 31-year-old free agent. Bregman opted out of the three-year, $120MM contract he signed with the Red Sox last offseason in pursuit of a more lucrative deal. “The ball is in his court,” manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

It’s not just the front office looking to reunite with Bregman. Outfielder Roman Anthony expressed support, highlighting the work Bregman did with the young players. “I would love to have him back,” Anthony told reporters, including Starr. “He was … a huge part of my success. And a lot of the young guys, and not only the young guys, but many of the guys in the clubhouse … we’re all on the same page as to where we stand with him and what we hope happens.” Anthony specifically cited Bregman’s insights into preparation and offensive approach as beneficial to him in his rookie season.

Injuries limited Bregman to 114 games in his lone season in Boston, but he was quite productive when available. He slashed .273/.360/.462 with 18 home runs across 495 plate appearances. Bregman delivered his typical strong work with the glove at the hot corner. He earned his third All-Star selection.

Outfield trade sounds doubtful

Boston seemingly has four outfielders for three spots heading into the season. Anthony, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela have all shown enough to earn everyday roles. One of them could slot in at DH, but that would limit the playing time for Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas. Despite the apparent glut at the position, along with rumors that Duran was drawing interest, Breslow shot down the notion that a trade was on the table.

“It was never likely in my mind,” Breslow told reporters, including Cotillo. “We’ve got really talented outfielders. When teams call, that’s what other executives point to. They’re young, they’re controllable, they’re dynamic, they’re talented, and can impact games in multiple ways. It’s really nice to be able to say they’re also members of the Boston Red Sox.”

Cora also provided additional context on the outfield plan, telling reporters he preferred Rafaela in center field and Abreu in right field, even against left-handed pitching. Breslow has previously expressed a desire to keep Rafaela in center field. He’s spent time at second base and shortstop over the past two seasons. Rafaela is a tremendous outfielder, earning Gold Glove honors for his efforts in center field this past season. Abreu also secured a Gold Glove in 2025, his second time receiving the award. He’ll likely be in the field when he plays. It’s the same-handed pitching remark that is interesting. The lefty-swinging Abreu had just 68 plate appearances against southpaws last season. He’s hit just .205 vs. lefties in his career.

If Cora gets his wish, with both Rafaela and Abreu regularly manning the outfield, Anthony and Duran would handle left field and DH. It’s hard to imagine former top prospect Anthony losing much playing time outside of the occasional rest day. Duran is coming off a modest 2025, but he was one of the top offensive forces in the league in 2024. It’ll be a lot for Cora to juggle next season without a roster move.

Injury updates

Casas is coming back from a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee. He told reporters, including Christopher Smith of MassLive, that he’s uncertain if he’ll be ready for the start of the 2026 campaign. “As of right now, not too sure. Not trying to get ahead of myself, but I do see myself progressing well enough to maybe get into some spring training games. We’ll see how that goes because that’s a benchmark as well.”

Boston traded for Willson Contreras to handle first base, which leaves Casas’ role in question once he gets healthy. The aforementioned logjam in the outfield doesn’t help matters. Casas seems to be taking the Contreras addition in stride, though. “He’s a better player than me and has been for his entire career. To upgrade at a position that has been deficient for the last two years is exactly what the team needed.” (relayed by Cotillo)

A few more quick-hitters in the health department…

  • Marcelo Mayer expects to be fully ready for Spring Training. His 2025 season was cut short by a wrist injury in August. “I’m pretty much doing full baseball activity, like a normal ramp-up, as I would for a regular season going into spring training,” Mayer said.
  • Anthony is also expected to be good to go for the spring. An oblique injury cost him most of September and all of the postseason. The team believed he might have been able to return for the ALCS, but they were knocked out in the ALDS.
  • Kutter Crawford is on track to return to action for the first time since 2024. He missed all of last season with knee and wrist issues. “At this point, it’s just normal progression,” Crawford said. “I got off the slope yesterday, and it felt good. And now we just build up the mound progression.”
  • Carlos Narvaez had knee surgery at the start of the offseason, but told reporters (including Smith) he would be a full go come springtime.

Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images

Braves Re-Sign Tyler Kinley

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The Braves are bringing back right-hander Tyler Kinley on a one-year contract worth $4.25MM in guaranteed money, according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal. The deal breaks down as a $3MM salary for the 2026 season, and there is a $1.25MM buyout on a $5.5MM club option for the 2027 season. Kinley is represented by Paragon Sports International.

Atlanta declined its $5.5MM option on Kinley shortly after the season ended, opting to hand him a $750K buyout. The move was a bit of an eyebrow raiser at the time, considering the righty’s strong work once he joined the team, but it makes more sense now. The Braves get Kinley at a cheaper number while adding the ability to retain him in 2027.

The deal is indicative of Kinley’s impressive turnaround last season. The 34-year-old had an ugly 5.66 ERA in the first half with Colorado. It continued a troubling trend, as Kinley was coming off back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 6.00. Atlanta scooped him up at the trade deadline for a Double-A reliever. The Braves weren’t in contention, so acquiring Kinley was more about giving him an audition for 2026. The gambit paid off, as the veteran allowed just two earned runs in 24 appearances with the team.

Kinley often worked in high-leverage spots during his Rockies tenure. The role was given to him more out of necessity, not performance. Despite a 6.19 ERA in 2024, Kinley led the team with a dozen saves. He wrapped up his five-plus seasons in Colorado with a 5.05 ERA. Pitching half your games at Coors Field is no easy task, and Kinley’s underlying metrics were routinely better than his standard run prevention numbers. He had a SIERA close to or below 4.00 in each of his five full campaigns with the team. Kinley’s xERA was more than a run lower than his actual ERA on three occasions.

The Braves have already made several additions in the bullpen this offseason. The club re-signed Raisel Iglesias in mid-November, then doubled down by grabbing Robert Suarez in early December. Atlanta also brought back Joel Payamps and picked up veterans Ian Hamilton and Danny Young. Iglesias and Suarez are the clear 1-2 punch in the late innings, which likely leaves Kinley to pick up opportunities in the middle frames.

Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Jazz Chisholm Jr.

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The Yankees announced they’ve reached an agreement with infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the 2026 season. It’s a one-year, $10.2MM deal, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network. Chisholm is a client of Roc Nation Sports.

New York settled all eight of its remaining arbitration cases today. Chisholm was the only one to crack eight figures, though closer David Bednar ($9MM) wasn’t far behind. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz nailed both numbers. The 27-year-old Chisholm is in his final year of arbitration and will head to free agency next offseason.

Chisholm put together a massive 30/30 campaign in his first full season in pinstripes. He struck out at an above-average clip, but also pushed his walk rate to a career-best 10.9%. Chisholm’s 126 wRC+ was his best mark since the 134 he posted in an abbreviated 2022 season, when a back injury limited him to 60 games. Health issues hindered Chisholm for much of his tenure in Miami. That hasn’t been the case in New York. Aside from a minimum IL stint in 2024 and a one-month absence this past year, Chisholm has been a fixture in the Yankees’ lineup. He’s played at least 130 games in back-to-back seasons.

After making the move to third base when he first joined the team, Chisholm was locked in at second base after New York traded for Ryan McMahon. He should reprise that role in 2026, assuming he’s still on the team. Rival clubs have checked in with the Yankees about Chisholm. The pending free agent is interested in a contract extension, but New York hasn’t been as keen on the idea. There’s been no indication that the Yankees are actually considering trading Chisholm. He’s more than likely going to be back in the middle of a formidable New York lineup next year.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

Reds, Brady Singer Avoid Arbitration

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The Reds and right-hander Brady Singer are in agreement on a $12.75MM salary for the 2026 campaign, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It’s the final year of arbitration for Singer, who is set to hit free agency next offseason. The contract is slightly above MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection of $11.9MM. Singer is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Cincinnati acquired Singer in a November 2024 trade that sent Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer to Kansas City. He had an up-and-down season in his first year with the club. Singer was bombed for seven earned runs in his first start out of the All-Star break, pushing his ERA to 4.84 on the year. He closed the season with a strong 12-start stretch, posting a 2.81 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate. The final result was a pretty standard Singer season, with an ERA just above 4.00 and slightly less than a strikeout per inning.

The Reds had a hefty 12 arbitration cases this offseason. Singer was easily the most expensive. Cincinnati agreed to a $5.525MM contract with Gavin Lux and a $4.725MM deal with Nick Lodolo today. None of the other cases settled by the club exceeded $4MM. Singer’s settlement was the second-highest of the day across the league, behind only Randy Arozarena ($15.65MM). As things currently stand, Singer will be the highest-paid player on the roster next season. Jeimer Candelario’s unfortunate deal is still on the books for $12MM, but no other active Red will make more than $10MM, barring a big free agent addition.

Singer will be joined by Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Chase Burns on the 2026 staff. Cincinnati also has youngsters Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty waiting in the wings, along with injury returnees Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson, and Carson Spiers. It’s a deep group, which led MLBTR’s Steve Adams to ponder whether the club would trade pitching for hitting this offseason. President of baseball operations Nick Krall has downplayed moving any of his starters, though maybe seeing the ample returns for Shane Baz and Edward Cabrera could cause the club to reconsider that stance.

Photo courtesy of Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images

Giants Sign Tyler Mahle

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January 5th: The Giants officially announced the Mahle signing today but still haven’t announced a corresponding 40-man roster move.

January 1st: Mahle is guaranteed $10MM on the deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Performance bonuses could bump it up near $13MM, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.

Dec. 31: The Giants are closing in on a deal with free agent right-hander Tyler Mahle, reports Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s a one-year pact, per Rubin. The 31-year-old Mahle is a client of ISE Baseball.

Mahle is coming off an injury-riddled 2025 with the Rangers, though he was productive when healthy. The veteran righty was one of the most pleasant early-season surprises, pitching to a 1.64 ERA over the first two months of the season. Mahle allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his first 12 starts to begin the campaign. He was knocked around for eight earned runs across his first two starts of June, then hit the IL with shoulder fatigue. Mahle returned for a pair of outings in September, allowing a run over 9 2/3 innings.

Persistent maladies have limited Mahle to just 125 innings over the past three seasons. He made nine starts across a season and a half with Minnesota, missing time with a strained shoulder and a forearm issue. It was a disappointing outcome for the Twins, who parted with Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to land Mahle at the 2022 trade deadline. After signing with Texas in December 2023, Mahle missed the first four months of the year while recovering from elbow surgery. After three games with his new club, he went down with shoulder tightness and missed the rest of the year.

Mahle was routinely striking out more than a batter per inning during his peak years with Cincinnati, but those numbers have tailed off as the injuries have mounted. Mahle posted an uninspiring 19.1% strikeout rate last season. He sat at 92 mph with his fastball, down a couple of ticks from his best seasons with the Reds. The ERA estimators all suggest Mahle’s 2.18 ERA in 2025 should be viewed with skepticism. His xERA and xFIP were both above 4.00, while his SIERA was all the way up at 4.62. Mahle ran hot with home run luck (4.9% HR/FB), while also benefiting from a career-high 84.6% LOB%.

It was reported in mid-December that the Giants were still in the market for pitching after signing righty Adrian Houser. With Justin Verlander hitting free agency, the club entered the offseason with Logan Webb and Robbie Ray as the only guaranteed members of the 2026 rotation. Landen Roupp, who missed the final six weeks of the 2025 campaign with a knee injury, is also expected to be on the staff. Houser and Mahle are the favorites to round out the group.

President of baseball operations Buster Posey entered the offseason focused on adding to the rotation and the bullpen. While the club has been connected to some of the bigger names on the starter market, including Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen, the moves so far have been relatively minor. Houser came on board via a two-year, $22MM pact with a club option for a third season. The Giants added relievers Jason Foley and Sam Hentges on cheap deals. Mahle now joins the squad on a one-year deal.

Given the injury histories for Ray and Mahle, plus the limited track record for Roupp, San Francisco will likely need to lean on internal options for additional innings. Carson Whisenhunt, Carson Seymour, and Kai-Wei Teng all received opportunities last season, but none delivered useful results. Hayden Birdsong graduated from a long relief role to the rotation, but control issues led to a demotion to Triple-A. Keaton Winn and Blade Tidwell (acquired in the Tyler Rogers trade) missed time with injuries. Trevor McDonald might be the leading candidate to open the year as the sixth starter/injury fill-in. The righty closed the year with a pair of stellar outings, tossing six innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers and striking out 10 Rockies over seven frames.

RosterResource currently has the Giants’ payroll at $175MM for 2026. That mark doesn’t include Mahle’s deal or the $17MM payment owed to Blake Snell in mid-January as part of his deferred signing bonus. When adding in those considerations, the club is on track to comfortably exceed the $177MM it spent on payroll last season. The increase in expenses could be the reason the Giants ultimately rounded out the rotation with low-cost veterans in Houser and Mahle. A general hesitation by the front office to pursue long-term deals for starters likely also factored in.

Photos courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

The Nationals’ Closer Options

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The swap of Jose A. Ferrer for Harry Ford brought the Nationals their potential catcher of the future. It also left an already-thin bullpen without a clear closer for the upcoming season. The rebuilding club is unlikely to pursue an impact reliever in free agency. If they make a move, it’ll likely be finding a cheap veteran with closing experience in the hopes of flipping them at the trade deadline after a few months of decent production.

The Nationals ranked dead last in bullpen ERA by a significant margin in 2025. The team was 0.4 runs worse than the next-closest team (Colorado). Washington has been able to rely on Kyle Finnegan for the past few seasons. The righty threaded the needle of being capable of holding down the job, while not being talented enough to leave via trade or free agency. He fell back into the Nats’ lap in late February after garnering minimal interest on the open market. Washington moved him to Detroit at the trade deadline.

The Finnegan trade led to the emergence of Ferrer, who earned 11 saves over the final two months of the season. The hard-throwing lefty’s overall numbers weren’t amazing, but a 3.24 SIERA and a 3.43 xFIP suggested the best was yet to come. Ferrer will now join Seattle’s elite bullpen.

Washington has a new general manager and a first-time skipper. It’s the perfect time to unearth a stud reliever out of a rag-tag mix of arms. So who could the closer-in-waiting be?

Cole Henry

After multiple years as one of the organization’s top pitching prospects, Henry moved to a relief role in 2025. Persistent injury issues kept the 2020 second-round pick from putting it all together as a starter. Henry opened the season in the minors, but was quickly promoted to the big-league club. He slowly worked his way into a high-leverage role. The righty finished the season with 10 holds, which ranked behind only Ferrer. He also notched a pair of saves.

Henry has the fastball to be a closer. The 26-year-old’s four-seamer sits in the mid-90s with well-above-average arm-side movement. The pitch held hitters to a .191 batting average and recorded a +4 Run Value. Henry’s curveball is a decent complement, with its solid whiff rate and tight shape. As a former starter, Henry unsurprisingly used a deep pitch mix, but his sinker, cutter, and changeup were unremarkable. The key will be narrowing down an arsenal he can throw for strikes. Henry had a 13.3% walk rate, which ranked in the second percentile. He posted a miserable 85 Location+.

Clayton Beeter

If the season started today, Beeter would likely draw the 9th-inning assignment. He finished just behind Henry with nine holds and also chipped in a save. Beeter closed the season with a save and five holds over his final seven appearances. Interim manager Miguel Cairo leaned on him when Ferrer faltered down the stretch. He’s another former starter who recently made the move to the bullpen.

Beeter has the strikeout numbers of an elite reliever. After multiple minor league seasons with a strikeout rate above 35%, he’s continued to punch out hitters in the majors. Beeter has a 31.9% strikeout rate across 29 MLB innings over the past two years. It’s a straightforward repertoire, just an upper-90s fastball and a hard slider. Beeter’s slider had a massive 49.1% whiff rate last season. It was responsible for 29 of his 33 strikeouts. Beeter had a 2.97 xFIP with the Nats, so his 2.49 ERA seems somewhat legit. If there’s an internal option who could rack up 15 saves and be on the move in late July, it’s probably Beeter.

PJ Poulin or Konnor Pilkington

Washington only has two left-handed relievers on the 40-man roster, so while Poulin and Pilkington are locked into MLB roles, neither is likely to be reserved for the 9th inning. A free agent addition of the southpaw variety would probably be the only way for one of them to step into the gig. If that happens, there’s a route toward Poulin or Pilkington vying for the job.

Poulin would be a non-traditional pick, even as lefties go. His heater barely cracks 90 mph, and he walks too many hitters for a soft-tosser. But, he did compile a 2.10 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A in Detroit’s system in 2024. He had multiple stops with big strikeout numbers, including a 33.7% strikeout rate with Triple-A Toledo before getting claimed by the Nats.

Pilkington’s velocity jumped up in the Nats’ bullpen compared to his days as a starter with the Guardians. He was sitting above 94 mph as a reliever this past year. Pilkington missed bats at an above-average rate, but walked too many and was barreled too frequently.

Marquis Grissom Jr.

Grissom has steadily worked his way up Washington’s system, reaching Triple-A this past season. While he stumbled with Rochester, there’s enough of a minor league track record to believe Grissom could make an impact with the big-league club. He posted a 2.21 ERA across two minor league levels in 2024. That earned Grissom an invite to MLB Spring Training in 2025. He also played in the Futures Game this past year, where he went up against his dad (who was managing the AL team). Grissom has totaled 27 saves in the minors over the past three seasons. The fact that he isn’t on the 40-man roster hurts his chances, but the club doesn’t have many obvious impact relievers in the minors.

Brad Lord

A team bereft of reliable starters outside of MacKenzie Gore probably can’t afford to keep Lord in the bullpen, though his stuff is enticing there. Lord scooped up seven holds in a hybrid role last season. He was sitting at 96 mph at times as a reliever. Lord put together a two-month stretch from mid-May to mid-July with a 2.70 ERA and a 23.5% strikeout rate over 26 relief appearances. He doesn’t have a clear answer for lefties (which will be a problem as a starter), but the fastball/sinker/slider combo could play with the velocity bump out of the bullpen.

The Brewers’ First Base Possibilities

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The Brewers have struggled to find competent first base play for the entirety of this decade. Not since Prince Fielder in the early 2010s has the club had a standout contributor at the position for more than a season. Milwaukee’s regular first baseman (by games played) hasn’t exceeded 1.0 WAR (per Baseball Reference) in a season since Eric Thames in 2019. The team has won the NL Central in four of the last five years, but they’ve shuffled through journeymen and platoon bats at the cold corner during that span.

Andrew Vaughn might be the answer. A mid-June trade from the White Sox seemed to revive the former third overall pick. Vaughn’s underwhelming career hit rock bottom in May, when he was demoted by Chicago after hitting .189 over the first two months of the season. The White Sox dealt him to the Brewers for Aaron Civale, which says a lot about his value at the time.

Rhys Hoskins sprained his thumb in early July, opening the door for a Vaughn promotion. He joined the big-league club and immediately hit the ground running. Vaughn launched a three-run homer off Yoshinobu Yamamoto in his first at-bat with the Brewers. He went on to post a 1.157 OPS in July. After hitting five home runs in 48 games with the White Sox to start the season, Vaughn left the yard five times in his first 15 games with the Brewers.

Vaughn cooled off considerably in August, slashing .250/.320/.375. He managed just six extra-base hits in 29 games. A day off to begin September seemed to do Vaughn some good, as he heated back up to close the season. The 27-year-old hit .368 with a .509 SLG over the last month of the campaign. His performance was enough to bump Hoskins off the NLDS roster. Vaughn had a solid series against the Cubs, popping two homers and driving in four runs. He then went 0-for-12 in a four-game NLCS sweep by the Dodgers.

Despite the hitless series against the L.A., Vaughn heads into 2026 as the top candidate to hold down first base for the Brewers. The club didn’t pick up its end of the mutual option with Hoskins, so Vaughn and Jake Bauers are the only primary first basemen on the roster. Catcher William Contreras and utilityman Andruw Monasterio also have a bit of experience at the position. It seems like Vaughn’s job to lose, but he’s got a lengthy MLB track record of mediocrity. Here’s how first base could play out for Milwaukee in 2026…

Vaughn runs away with the job

The reason behind Vaughn’s takeoff in Milwaukee could be as simple as a change of scenery for a former top pick on a struggling team. However, he did make some clear improvements this past season. He’d always hit the ball hard (46.6% career hard-hit rate), it just hadn’t translated into much production. The guy getting 60 raw power grades as Chicago’s top prospect never hit more than 21 home runs with the club.

Milwaukee was able to get Vaughn to turn his hard contact into better results in multiple ways. The young slugger posted career bests in line drive rate (25.2%), pull rate (37.5%), and pulled air rate (18%) this past season. Those marks are still right around league average, but they’re a solid improvement on Vaughn’s previous work. He also ranked in the 85th percentile in launch angle sweet spot rate and in the 92nd percentile in squared-up rate.

It wasn’t just the batted balls, either. Vaughn took significant steps forward in terms of plate discipline with Milwaukee. After striking out a career-worst 22.3% of the time with Chicago to open the year, he cut that number to 14.6% with the Brewers. He also pushed his walk rate up to 9.4%. Vaughn hasn’t had a walk rate above 7% since his rookie season in 2021.

There’s a chance July and September were the “new” Vaughn, and he’s just going to be a high-.800s OPS bat for the duration of his prime. The pedigree was evident, considering his legendary college career and the draft capital invested in acquiring him. It just took five years and a new home to make good on it.

Vaughn regresses, but the lineup makes up for it

Milwaukee’s offense took a unique shape in 2025. The club didn’t have a regular with an OPS over .800 for the full season, but also had just one everyday player with a mark below .700 (glove-first Joey Ortiz at .593). The result was a team that finished third in scoring behind only the Yankees and Dodgers. Isaac Collins was dealt to Kansas City, but the rest of the group should be back next season. Barring an offseason addition, some combination of Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, and Blake Perkins will fill the void left by Collins in the outfield.

The supportive offensive environment could allow Vaughn to exist in the lineup as a moderately productive piece. That’s basically what he was in Chicago. He never had a truly standout season, but his worst year with the team still resulted in a 93 wRC+. At the very least, he could form a strong platoon with Bauers at first base. Vaughn has always hit lefties, even in his White Sox days. He has a career .787 OPS against southpaws, compared to .702 versus righties.

This outcome hasn’t hindered Milwaukee in the past, as they’ve gotten by with decent contributions from the likes of Hoskins, Rowdy Tellez, and Daniel Vogelbach. Vaughn is set to hit free agency after the 2027 season. Milwaukee could ride this out at a reasonable price and let him walk when the time comes. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Vaughn to make $7.8MM in arbitration this year.

Tyler Black, come on down

Vaughn was unplayable as recently as May of this past season. Those struggles briefly returned in August with the Brewers. A player getting a jolt after going from the cellar to a competitive club, then reverting to previous form, certainly wouldn’t be an unheard-of outcome.

A Vaughn flameout would likely lead to a renewed opportunity for Black. The 25-year-old has put together solid results in the minors, but has only made 23 appearances in the majors. Black struggled in his brief 2024 debut, then only played a handful of games with the Brewers this past season.

There are questions about Black’s ability to consistently make contact at the highest level. He also might not be a long-term defensive fit at first base (or anywhere else). It just seems like Milwaukee needs to exhaust Black as a possibility before it’s too late. He’s down to one minor league option. He’s already in his mid-20s. MLB.com had Black ranked fourth among the Brewers prospects as recently as 2024. He had a 117 wRC+ at Triple-A that year. He’s shown enough to get an extended look in the big leagues.

If it’s not Black waiting in the wings, maybe it’s Luke Adams? The 21-year-old reached Double-A by the end of last season. He put up a stellar 157 wRC+ across three minor league levels in 2025. Adams kept it rolling in the Arizona Fall League, posting a 1.039 OPS in 16 games. MLB.com has Adams at No. 8 in Milwaukee’s prospect rankings heading into next season. He could be next up if Vaughn falters and Black doesn’t get the nod.

Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images

Kona Takahashi Could Return To NPB

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Right-hander Tatsuya Imai found an MLB home earlier today, signing a three-year deal with the Astros. The same can’t be said for Imai’s former Seibu Lions teammate, Kona Takahashi, whose posting window closes on Sunday. With just one major league offer on the table, Takahashi could be headed back to Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Mark Feinsand and Brian Murphy of MLB.com.

Imai landed a contract on the final day of his posting window, so there’s certainly still time for Takahashi to find a desirable deal. Feinsand and Murphy didn’t provide additional details about the lone offer in front of Takahashi, but their report suggests it might not be enough to coax the righty stateside. The duo suggested that Takahashi could head back to the Lions on a new multi-year deal with opt-outs that would allow him to hit the open market following the 2026 season as an unrestricted free agent. Avoiding the posting system and the associated release fees could make Takahashi more appealing to MLB teams next offseason.

The 28-year-old Takahashi bounced back to a degree in 2025 after a down year in 2024. He posted an ERA just over 3.00 across 24 starts with the Lions. He continued to show impeccable control (6.7% walk rate), though his strikeout rate fell to a career-low 14.3%. Takahashi had made just 15 starts the prior season. He recorded a 3.87 ERA in 2024 and failed to reach 120 innings for the first time since 2018.

Takahashi had a stellar two-year run from 2022 to 2023. He put together consecutive seasons with a sub-2.25 ERA while pushing his strikeout rate up near 20%. Takahashi tossed a career-high 175 2/3 innings in 2022, then came back with a 155-inning campaign the following year. Outside of 2024, he’s typically been a durable member of the Lions’ rotation.

James Fegan and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs pegged Takahashi as a backend starter, with praise for his pitching prowess but questions about his underwhelming fastball. Fegan and Longenhagen tiered Takahashi with Foster Griffin and Anthony Kay as potential options to fill out an MLB rotation. Griffin landed with the Nationals on a one-year deal, while Kay secured a two-year commitment from the White Sox.

Photo courtesy of Peter Aiken, Imagn Images

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