The Red Sox are planning to tender a contract to right-hander Tanner Houck, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The club has until Friday evening to change its mind but it seems they are planning to keep Houck on the roster.
Friday at 7pm Central is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. Teams and players don’t need to decide on a salary by that date. They have until January 8th to file salary figures. But the team needs to make a decision by Friday as to whether they are committed to paying the player or not. If the player is still on the roster beyond the deadline, the team will have to eventually pay him something, with various outcomes still possible at that point. A non-tender on Friday allows the team to walk away without paying anything.
Houck is arguably a borderline case on account of his health. He just had Tommy John surgery in August. He will likely miss the entire 2026 season. He can be retained via arbitration through 2027, at which point he is slated for free agency.
With 2026 likely to be a recovery year for Houck, the decision is more about 2027. The Sox could pay him for the 2026 season, hoping that the investment pays off in the following year. That’s something that teams often do in free agency. Pitchers recovering from surgery often sign two-year pacts, with the signing team knowing that they are probably only going to get meaningful return on investment in the second year, while the player banks a bit of cash while recovering.
The Sox themselves did this last offseason, as they signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year, $18.25MM deal. The lefty didn’t pitch for the Sox in 2025 but they will hopefully get something out of him next year. Other pitchers got similar deals recently. Shane Bieber got $26MM from the Guardians last winter, for instance, with an opt-out halfway through. A year earlier, Tyler Mahle got $22MM from the Rangers, with no opt-out. The Brewers gave Brandon Woodruff two years and $17.5MM when he was recovering from shoulder surgery.
Investing in Houck will cost less than that. He made $3.95MM in 2025, his first of three arbitration seasons. He only made nine starts in 2025 due to his arm issues but players going through arb usually see their salaries hold fairly steady when they miss significant time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houck for the same $3.95MM salary in 2026. If he stays on the roster and is tendered a contract for 2027 as well, he would likely end up in the same range again.
Essentially, tendering Houck a contract for the next two years will probably cost the Red Sox about $8MM total. They could also walk away after 2026 if he experiences some sort of setback, cutting their losses. The roughly $8MM would be less than half of what they paid to Sandoval and the guarantees of those other aforementioned deals. Houck doesn’t have the same track record as those guys but has shown plenty of potential, particularly in 2024 when he logged 178 2/3 innings with a 3.12 earned run average, 20.7% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.
If the Sox were to non-tender Houck, it would probably suggest that they don’t expect him to fully return to that level in 2027, though there also could be other contributing factors. There’s no injured list in the offseason, so the Sox do have to keep Houck on the roster throughout the winter. Tomorrow is the deadline to add players to a 40-man roster to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. The Sox currently have a full 40-man and need to open some spots, assuming they want to add a few guys. Cotillo mentions the possibility of a lockout disrupting 2027, which could prevent the Sox from benefiting from Houck’s eventual return. However, front office still have to plan as though the season will be played, as there’s no certainty around the labor dispute right now.
The Sox currently have Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello under club control through at least 2030. Other than that, there’s not a ton of certainty. Kutter Crawford has posted decent results and should be in the mix. He’s under club control through 2028. The aforementioned Sandoval is signed for just one more year. Guys like Connelly Early, Payton Tolle and Kyle Harrison are in the mix but still aren’t proven big leaguers. The Sox plan to add to the rotation this offseason but haven’t done so yet.
Even if a pitching staff looks good on paper, injuries are always inevitable, so it’s anyone’s guess what the depth will look like by the time Houck is back on a big league mound. He has also had some success as a reliever, so perhaps there’s a scenario where he gets pushed to the bullpen, especially if there are workload concerns in the coming years. Time will tell how it plays out but it appears the Sox would like the payoff to be with Houck pitching in Boston.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Good news for hitters and managers on opposing teams.
He had 2 disastrous starts in 2025 in which he gave up 11 earned runs each time. Outside of those 2 games, he had a 3.92 ERA in the other 7 appearances.
In 2024, he pitched 178.2 innings to an ERA of 3.12.
This seems like a pretty reasonable gamble on Boston’s part. It’s not hard to see Houck being a useful member of the rotation in 2027.
Bookmarked to laugh at you all in 2027.
“Bookmarked to laugh at you all in 2027.”
What did all of us say?
He was an all star last year and then collapsed. Red Sox scored 11 off of JP France and he’s not the same in the rest of ’23, ’24, and limited ’25.
You just started watching baseball in 2025?
I’d like to see them sign him to a two-year deal with a team option for a 3rd. Cost certainty and potential buy-out of a free agent year if he’s able to come back and be effective to make up for the lost season in ’26
Was thinking of a similar deal for Clarke Schmidt with the Yanks, also down with TJ, 2 arb years through ‘27, and also 29 YO.
But not sure those deals work for the players assuming they perform in ‘27. Giving up age 31 / potential last long FA deal.
Can’t see a player like the two mentioned giving up a year before the next CBA is agreed to unless there is money added. The upside for either should they have big 27 seasons is much more than they’d be losing.
Of course, they need starting pitching.
It’s a no-brainer, but the Red Sox don’t need starting pitching depth. They’re looking to add a high-end starter, but their 40-man is overloaded with 23 pitchers (after DFA of Guerrero), 13 of which are starters. They have another 2-4 pitchers to protect from the rule-5 draft, so this number may inflate even further tomorrow.
okay my bad.
Will be real interesting to see who Breslow protects tomorrow besides Sandlin we know he’s protecting him.
Drohan was awesome at the end of last season, finally healthy. Uberstine looks like a solid rotation depth option now – not much fanfare, but he would be taken in rule 5 i bet. Paez is tricky, but i bet he would get drafed as well given his strong command profile.
Betting that many are surprised when Bleis is left unprotected. He has big upside, but I see no way he sticks on a 26-man roster for a season.
I forgot to mention Hayden Mullins. Another borderline case. His control isn’t great, but I could see a team thinking they could cover him into a FB/SL reliever and get him to stick.
Indeed
How does one measure “a ton of certainty”?
Typically use a heavy weight platform scale…but should they set it to metric or imperial?
With a very large scale, obviously.
It’s a move for the future. Hope he can get back on track. He can pitch, just needs a definite role.
It is such f***ing bulls*** that guys get $20 million to rehab for a year and a half and then be dog s*** for 3 weeks before getting kicked out of the rotation and/or sent to the bullpen for the last half of the second season. None of these rehab deals should be more than like $5 million. Not a single one has ever worked out.
Didn’t read the article, did you?
Sometimes they work. One example that’s recent, and I think Brewers fans would agree is Brandon Woodruff.
Yah I hate paying their salaries too. Why can’t the owners do that so all I have to worry about is watching a sport I enjoy? I don’t think anyone would care if it was just some billionaire throwing away their spare change.
The money you spend on injured guys is money you can’t spend on healthy guys. The fan doesn’t pay the cash but he does pay a price.
fopp – Exactly! It never ceases to amaze me how some fans think every team has an unlimited payroll limit. Most teams have strict player payroll budgets, if they spend poorly on one player then it could prevent them from acquiring or retaining another player.
And if poor spending leads to poor team performance, the fans pay the price by having spent good money in advance on a bad product.
With that said, in this instance I’m glad they are holding onto Houck. He is young enough and talented enough to take that risk, especially with his team history.
Yes. And certain fans act like there’s an unlimited pool of talent for teams to spend funds on instead of a very limited pool wherein injury prone players make up a large sub-section.
I’d love my team to only sign healthy aces. Unfortunately teams struggle to get through a season without using 12-14 starting pitchers as there aren’t enough healthy arms to go around. Teams have to sign these guys. That’s why they do. That’s why they command the price they do.
It’s very easy to say, “Don’t resign the injured guy,” but unless you know of a cheaper and more effective replacement it’s not constructive. And with 5th starters getting $15M on the open market it’s hard to make that argument.
Fever, another aspect is what does TH want? If DFAed, what about re-signing after the draft?
FPG
With the Sox not signing the guy I wanted , Naylor, l was looking at the 2 Japanese players,Murakami and Okamoto. I read they both play 3rd and/or 1stbase. Both seem like they can hit for average and power. Ok defensively. What do you think?
cdc – hi!
I had heard Murakami couldn’t hit anything faster than 92 MPH (.095 BA with a 41.7% strikeout rate against higher velo), so his strikeouts concern me as Japanese sluggers have a history of not doing very well in MLB because of the disparity in pitching. For the amounts I’ve seen thrown around, I wouldn’t give him that kind of contract.
Okamoto I’m honestly not as familiar with, but I think getting the best available defensive 3B should be a priority …. and between the Japanese free agents and Suarez, I’d say Suarez is better even though he’s below average.
Mule – imho signing a SP to rehab from TJ surgery makes zero sense. One year he doesnt pitch, the second year you are hoping that half way through the season hes rounding into shape….and, if he happens to pitch well in the second half of year two he is leaving. Wheres the upside????
Last year 5 SP free agents signed for less than $7m and pitched (to varying degrees of success for the season) Lorenzen, Hendricks, Quintana, Gibson and Rea.
So, if i understand your point, its better to pay Sandoval that same amount to NOT pitch?
This off season there are about 7-8 SP that will sign a one year deal for well under $10m (Canning, Paddack, Gray, Heaney, Stroman, Urquidy, Civale). Dont get me wrong, i dont want any of them because they are all probably done, but they are 100% better than paying someone NOT to pitch
@Troy I can understand the frustration as the last two of these for the Red Sox were Liam Hendriks (which went horribly) and Patrick Sandoval (which didn’t work-out for year 1 and now we’re onto year 2).
But one thing to consider: The deadline price for Dustin May, a free-agent-to-be SP who had struggled and was demoted to the bullpen, was a legit solid prospect (James Tibb III) and another decent prospect (Zach Erhard) who performed extremely well for the Dodgers AA team after the trade. If the Sandoval move had worked out, it would have saved the Red Sox both of those players AND given them a much better option in the rotation – Sandoval probably would have been starting in the playoffs if healthy.
So although they haven’t worked out recently, the benefit from them working out offsets the exhorbitant alternative cost of deadline acquisitions. Let’s hope that the next one fares better.
Side note: it’s important we avoid the ‘what have they done for us lately’ mentality in our assesments. This lead to the disastrous Chris Sale trade and has lead many to demand a trade of Triston Casas – sometimes we need to be patient.
WC – if you sign a rehabbing SP to a two year deal there has to be a club only option third year, otherwise it makes no sense.
The first year they dont pitch at all. The second year they are easing in and working to regain command and velocity. There is enough data for SPs coming back from TJ to know that it isnt like flipping a switch, they arent ready to pitch game one of the season.
I love Houck, but the next meaningful start we will make for the Red Sox he’ll be 31yo
I think its time to pull the plug on this experiment
@Sad.Sox 3 Many MLB teams seem to disagree with your logic, based on the previous deals, but it depends on the rehab timelines.
If a player isn’t expected to pitch at all in the first season then I’d be inclined to agree with you, but if the player is expected to return by mid-season in the 1st year, then a 2-year deal makes plenty of sense for both sides – unfortunately Sandoval was an outlier in terms of his recovery timeline and it hasn’t worked out so far.
Hendriks got the 3rd-year option which you like, but in his case that lead the team to eat an additional 2mil in guarantees to release him – so it actually backfired. Just to show, both philosophies have drawbacks (and you aren’t getting the 3rd-year option without adding more guarantees in any deal).
In terms of Houck, he’ll make ~3.95mil this next year while likely missing the full season and then another ~3.95mil in 2027 – but that money won’t be guaranteed until early 2027 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox wait till just beore the arbitration hearing in both cases before agreeing to a deal (to see where he is in his rehab). All that said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houck as a reliever in the Red Sox future.
WC – all fair points……
I think this is the right move.
My amateur guess is that Bailey might’ve fiddled with his grip or mechanics. He was just off in a handful of starts this year. I’m glad they’re keeping him around for another go. Great arm.
Put him on the 500-day IL and then fire it up
I hate to say it, but this may have to be a non-tender. He’s going to miss all of 2026. Even if the 2027 season starts on time the Sox would need to ease him into a spot. If, like all other SPs, it takes a few months to regain control and build up velocity, we’re talking about in June of 2027 he’ll be 31yo.
What could we reasonable expect?
He’s homegrown and seems like he was making strides forward in 2024, and $8mm seems like a reasonable amount. However, I hated when they signed Paxton, and that didnt work. I hated when they signed Hendriks and that didnt work. And, I’m not really holding out hope for Sandoval.
So, If I want to be consistent I would have to say maybe its time to stop the lunacy of these rehab SP signings.
~$4M ’27 salary and a full S.T. are what to expect. Sept ’25 to Feb ’27 is longer than the typical 9-18 months TJS recovery time. My bet is Houck will probably begin throwing by late summer next season.
@Yankees (just adding to your post) The typical pitcher time window for TJ is closer to 14-15 months with internal brace taking 12-13 months. He should likely start throwing by sometime in January. FWIW, Houck’s personal timeline was 12-14 months with him aiming at 12 months to make his return (which would be early August 2026) but that may be (likely) wishful thinking on his part.
There are a couple of pitchers who have actually come back in under 6 months from TJS (Zach Duke) but I doubt those will apply in Houck’s case.
Yeah, makes sense. Tendering costs almost nothing and keeps all the upside.
Its definitely a gamble even though the dollar cost is so minimal. You will expose another younger player to Rule 5.
Its a test of roster management. If the Front Office weighs the choice between exposing a developing player versus possibly losing Houck in mid 2027 its a tough call either way
Not if he’s on the 60 day
Say what?
@Tardaddy The 60-day IL doesn’t become available until pitcher and catchers report in late February. Until then, Houck will be using up a 40-man roster slot.
Where is Noah Song?
Song missed 2024 with TJ surgery. He spent most of 2025 in AA where he had a 4.19 ERA. He is 28 now, so I think he will likely be left unprotected from the Rule 5 draft.
The Phillies really screwed him over.
We’re going to lose 2-3 guys, Drohan being one of them-maybe get rid of Kelly and Jovan
There going to protect Sandlin. If it was me I would protect Drohan and Mullins as well. I think they dfa Lowe they aren’t going to pay him 13 million and hopefully they get rid of at least one more maybe Winckowski he’s out all next year.
I assume Lowe is an open spot on the 40 man. I think Grissom should be DFA’d too.
I hope they don’t lose Drohan – he’s definitely getting picked (again) if left unprotected.
I think you’re right that Jovani likely gets DFAd. He’s an intriguing arm but may just make it through waivers at this time. But Kelly has been a solid (if unexciting) bullpen piece – the Red Sox need guys like Kelly and Weissert to make it through a season. Given that Kelly also has velocity and is making the minimum – he definitely gets claimed.
Tanner Houck could be the Red Sox closer in 2027.
I think he has the mental makeup for it.
Get rid of dead weight or lose Uberstine, Drohan, Monegro, Paez, Rogers, Mullins, and Sandlin
Agreed. I think you can add Guerrero to the list. It looks like they have one open spot on the 40 man and can DFA Grissom to get another. Not sure after that. Tolle and Early did not need to added to the 40 man this year, but they were added because the Red Sox were doing their best to win. Actually, they probably will not protect Guerrero since no one claimed him on waivers recently.
They won’t lose Rogers no one is claiming him, Monegro is out for the season doubt anyone is claiming him, Paez missed almost the entires season and barely pitched in AA shocked if he was taken, Uberstine could possibly be picked up he pitched well he could be protected but I’m not sure he will be. They will protect Sandlin, and they should protect Drohan and Mullins. I could see them not protecting Drohan due to health he missed a lot of time like he has most other years. Sandlin, Mullins, and Drohan for sure with Uberstine on the cusp. It’s possible some other guys are picked but also very likely to be returned.
I’ll be shocked if they don’t dfa Nathaniel Lowe he’s projected for 13 million in arbitration they aren’t keeping him. They are at 39 on the 40 man that would make 38 might also designate Winckowski he’s out until 2027 and to reach 36 they may just designate Grissom as well.
They may also just protect Sandlin knowing they are expected to add probably 4 or 5 players during the off-season or you could see some trades tomorrow. It’s going to be an interesting day.
The more I think about I don’t even think Uberstine makes the AAA rotation next season. Tolle, Perales, Fitts, Dobbins, Harrison, maybe Crawford if he doesn’t get back to the rotation right away. There going to give Sandoval every opportunity doubt they designate him when they are paying him so much. I’m expecting Connelly Early to make the rotation but if he doesn’t then he’s for sure pitching in the rotation in AAA. They will probably also want Sandlin in the rotation in AAA. It’s going to be time to start transitioning some of these guys to the bullpen. There’s really no room for Uberstine.
If we assume the big club Crochet, #2 to be determined, Bello, Sandoval, and either Early or Crawford. That leaves a ton of guys in AAA rotation. The crazy thing there is going to be a ton of guys knocking on the door in AA to get to AAA and the same in High A Greenville. Lots of arm talent in the Red Sox farm system.
If Boston
Good. It’s a dog act when teams release TJ pitchers, and that’s being unkind to dogs.