Following the Twins’ deadline fire sale, the widespread expectation has been that they’d continue moving veteran players this offseason. That’s not necessarily the case. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic that his focus is on adding to the team, not subtracting, unless he “is told otherwise” by ownership. To this point, he has not given serious consideration to trading right-handers Pablo Lopez and/or Joe Ryan. The Pohlad family has reportedly not yet given the team’s front office a directive in terms of the budget for next season. If that eventual directive is to further lean into a rebuild, there might be another consequence: the potential acquiescence toward a trade from star center fielder Byron Buxton.
To this point, Buxton has made his desire to remain a Twin for his entire career clear. Even after this summer’s teardown of the roster, he emphasized that he had no plans to waive his no-trade clause and hoped to finish his career in Minnesota. The Twins’ offseason direction could put that loyalty to the test, as Hayes reports that Buxton might reconsider his stance if the team continues subtracting prominent players.
That’s hardly an announcement that Buxton wants out of Minnesota now, of course. It’s not impossible to see the bones of a competitive club in what the Twins still have on the roster. Lopez and Ryan are an excellent one-two combo atop the rotation. Bailey Ober had a rough 2025 season but was a quality mid-rotation arm for several years prior.
Beyond those three, Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, and David Festa are all young starters with mid-rotation upside who were considered top-100 prospects before debuting in the majors. The viability of that group will mostly be decided by the futures of veterans like Lopez, Ryan and Ober, though.
While 2025 was disappointing for infielders Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, no one should be surprised if the pair of former top prospects take a step forward next year and become the sort of high-end regulars Minnesota was hoping they could be when selecting each with a top-10 overall pick. Additional young talent is on the way as well, ranging from top outfield prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez to young infielder Luke Keaschall, who impressed in 207 plate appearances this year. Ryan Jeffers is already a quality regular behind the plate. Outfielders like Matt Wallner and Alan Roden have posted huge numbers in the minors, with the former enjoying some big league success at times (but also lacking consistency). Adding a reliable bat at first base could give the Twins the makings of a decent lineup.
Last summer’s flurry of trades slashed spending enough that the Twins project for a payroll of just $95MM next year, per RosterResource, down more than $40MM from last year’s Opening Day mark. It’s fair to wonder whether those savings will be reinvested or whether further cuts will be made. If it’s the latter, or if the front office is only given minimal space to add, then Lopez (owed $21.75MM in each of the next two seasons), Ryan (arbitration-eligible through 2027) and Jeffers (arb-eligible through 2026) are natural candidates to be moved.
It would be quite an intriguing turnaround if the Twins decided to make a run at contending in 2026, though they would have to rebuild essentially the entire bullpen. Prior to the deadline, they traded away Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland, Griffin Jax, Danny Coulombe and Brock Stewart.
Should the Twins go the other way and end up dealing from that group of quality veterans, perhaps Buxton would reconsider his previously stated desire to be a Twin for life. The soon to be 32-year-old veteran will make $45MM total over the final three seasons of the extension he signed in Minnesota. He can tack on an additional $10MM of earnings each season based on plate appearances and MVP voting.
That’s a bargain for the production he provides, with a .270/.330/.540 batting line (138 wRC+), 53 home runs, 31 steals and 8.7 fWAR in 228 games the past two years. If he was available, virtually any team in baseball would have interest in bringing Buxton into the fold. Big-spending contenders like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Mets all figure to be on the hunt for outfield help this winter, and if Buxton did decide to waive his no-trade clause he’d likely be able to have his pick of the litter in terms of destinations thanks to his favorable contract situation and excellent production.
Those big spending clubs wouldn’t be the only teams with interest if Buxton were to make himself available, and perhaps a team like the Astros or even Rays with payroll limitations but a strong commitment to winning nonetheless could get involved as well. Buxton’s commitment to the Twins over the years has shown he’s not afraid to try to win in a smaller market than New York or Los Angeles, though if he was to depart Minnesota it would surely be done with getting to the World Series firmly in mind after winning just one playoff series during his time with Minnesota.
Wants to come home, won’t say it yet.
Sell the team
I won’t believe a word Falvey says about his desire to add to the roster until he and Zoll actually pursue some larger building blocks. He has asserted himself as the Pohlad’s loyal lap dog to retain his own role in the front office.
Until those building blocks are obtained and internal player development is strengthened, this team cannot compete. Top prospects have come and gone, and they cannot be relied upon. I have no faith in this team until good veterans are brought in to support the younger players, both on the playing side and the coaching side.
I mean, Falvey is an employee of ownership. Of course he’s going to do what they say.
If the Twins intended to compete in ’26 or ’27, they would not have traded so many relievers that were controllable through 2027. If they do not plan to add that $40m back to payroll (which would still not replace the production they traded) there is no reason to punish Lopez and Ryan by keeping them pitching for a bad team.
As a Twins fan, my plan is to check out until about 2032 because I see no path forward until then. They JUST had a controllable core good enough to compete, and blew it up anyway. What is the point of that? What this looks like to me is full Pirates style pocket the revenue sharing and don’t bother to try.
After yet another offseason where they add nobody except for a few town ball guys who drive for Uber in the offseason, they will be able to say “no, we didn’t lie to you. We said that we *wanted* to add serious talent to the roster, not that we *would.*”
How’s the debt situation playing into this? What’s the balance on distribution of revenues between general operating expenses, debt service, payouts to ownership stakeholders and payroll.. They must have a budget and projections–presumably that’ going to dictate what happens next. I can understand why they might want to keep that info private, but if you are a fan, it’s going to influence what you see on the field–and especially so if Ownership is looking for a big offer. Then they will not be willing to enter into anything medium-to-long term, no matter what the “esthetic” improvement
They can patiently wait to trade Ryan this offseason as teams miss out on their desired FA targets. Keeping him a waste unless all they hear is universal lowball offers from teams that have 0-0 record optimism to prospect hug.
Really it was just a bullpen and outgoing FAs anyway. Bullpen is the easiest, imo, part of a team to piece together. Still too many LHHCOFs. None of which have turned a corner
I agree. Bullpen losses were the only thing that hurt, but at least they brought back some significant prospcts. As an orioles fan, im definitely jealous of their collection of younger starters. If they are able to put together a bullpen, they can still be competitive this year.
I’m not a believer in their prospect haul, Tait only good looking one. None of the SP other than Joe and Pablo have had any consistency. Bradley was demoted before he was traded, aka couldn’t make the roster of a non playoff team. Abel is AAA superstar just like festa and zebby. None of which have produced yet in the majors. SWR was okay after his recall. Ober was really good then really bad, or hurt. It’s not really clear. Either way not good. All the others waiting in AAA flopped or were hurt last year.
Maybe dumping Correa changes the culture? He always rubbed me the wrong way in interviews
Especially disheartening is that $10m of that $95m payroll is one of three yearly payments to Astros to play Correa.
Before Lopez went down alst year, the Twins ahd one of the five best pitching staffs in the game, with a stellar bullpen.
SFG might give up Eldridge 1B for 3 years of Buxton @$45 million ?
They would have to start with Eldridge if they were building a package for Buxton
Acquiring makes a lot of sense. Their division is pretty weak, there are no big spenders (they were a pre-season favorite last year). As this notes, they have the core of an excellent rotation. While the bullpen was decimated, none of those guys were highly rated prospects and the Twins may feel they can again develop bullpen depth from their system, including from the potential starters who don’t make the rotation. They could, of course, use some high leverage experienced arms. In the outfield, besides Buxton, they have two youing MLB top.25 prospects in Jenkins and Rodriquez, and some inexpensive #3/4 OF candidates in Wallner, Roden, Outman, Clemens, Austin Martin (I think they non-tender Larnach who could get almost $5 million). In the infield, they’re set.at 2B (Keaschell); SS (Lee, with Culpepper on the way), and Lewis. All three still have something to prove, but that’s an attractive set of possibilities. They have a hole at 1B (not clear why they gave up on Ty France, considering his salary) and while some of the excess OF could serve at DH, they could probably use a better bat there. The new limited partners have cleaned up a meaningful chunk of debt, so cash flow should be less of a problem. And they’ve jettisoned a lot of payroll from opening day 2025: Buxton ($20 million net); Vázquez,($10) Paddac ($7.5); Willi Castro ($6.4); Bader ($4.8); Duran ($4.8). So even with Ryan and some others getting raises, they’ll need to spend a lot in free agency just to get back to last season’s payroll. It probably makes sense for them to focus on short term deals: If the kids don’t work out, they’ll probably be trying to trade Ryan and Lopez at the deadline. One year deals for Arraez, Goldschmidt and M. Andujar would give them some potent platoon hitting at 1B and DH and cost probably less than $25 million (Ryan O”Hearn could fit in there, but they’d probably have to go to two years). Another $18 — $20 million could probably buy one year of Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan and give them a very solid back end of the bullpen.. Yes, some of this seems like bargain basemen shopping, but there aren’t too many 3 WAR or better hitters on the market and it makes no sense for the Twins to pay that kind of prices at this point. .
Im so over this team….
-Former lifelong MN Twins fan
Red Sox could send a nice package of young players for one of Ryan or Lopez plus Buxton. Could make sense for both sides.
Wats the point of even having this team? They consistently sign tier 2-3 players. They trade away the good ones but rarely get anything good in return and if they do, they trade them away in a couple years. The ownership of this team is pathetic. I’ve never seen a team that want s to NOT win more than the Twins. Maybe the Pirates…but other than that…none. What’s the point of fielding a team with probably less payroll than the top group of college NIL players. What a joke!!!
Pssssst directive should be new owners!