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Twins Planning To Keep Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton, Pablo López

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The Twins just underwent a big sell-off at the summer trade deadline. That led to plenty of speculation about further selling this winter but that appears not to be in the cards. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the club plans to hold onto trade candidates like Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton and Pablo López as they try to return to contention in 2026. Rosenthal doesn’t mention Ryan Jeffers but this presumably applies to him as well.

Minnesota was in contention for a decent amount of the 2025 season. They fell down the standings in the summer and pivoted into seller position ahead of the July deadline. Many expected them to do modest selling of impending free agents but they went far deeper than that. They flipped controllable relievers Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland and Brock Stewart. They also sent infielder Carlos Correa back to Houston, an effective salary dump. It was clearly financially motivated from the get-go and then the player they acquired in return, pitcher Matt Mikulski, was released in October.

After such an aggressive teardown, the expectation has been that they would continue selling this winter. Ryan, López and Buxton were all the subject of trade rumors. Buxton and López are the two highest-paid players on the team but would still be attractive to other clubs. Buxton is signed through 2028 and López 2027. Ryan isn’t expensive, as he’s still in his arbitration seasons. But with just two years of club control, he wouldn’t fit on a rebuilding club. With his modest projected salary, he likely would have had the highest trade value of the trio. Jeffers is an impending free agent and would have found lots of interest, especially considering the weak catching market.

There were at least some signs that the Twins didn’t plan for their deadline sell-off to lead to multi-year rebuilding project. Their returns in their summer trades were largely major league-ready players and upper level prospects. Across various trades, they acquired Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, Alan Roden, James Outman and Kendry Rojas, among others. The first four of those guys already had some major league experience. Rojas still hasn’t appeared in the big leagues but reached the Triple-A level prior to being acquired. If the club were planning a yearslong rebuilding effort, those would have been odd choices.

In the background of all this was the Pohlad family looking to sell the club, something they announced in October of 2024. But in August of 2025, just a few weeks after the deadline, it was announced that the family was taking the club off the market. They would instead be taking on some minority partners, whose investments would help the club deal with hundreds of millions of dollars in debt.

As the winter began, many still expected the club to be selling this winter. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey pushed back on that a bit in November, saying that he had not yet been given any directions about further lowering the payroll and that his plans would be to add to the 2026 roster until told otherwise.

None of their moves this offseason have clearly pushed them in one direction or another. They have made a few very small trades, having picked up relief pitcher Eric Orze and catcher Alex Jackson. But now it seems the club has picked a lane and will be trying to put their best foot forward in 2026.

Perhaps the heavy lifting on the financial front was accomplished at the deadline, primarily by the Correa deal. The situation with the new investors is still a bit foggy but it’s possible the debt is gone or least a much smaller concern. RosterResource projects the Twins for a payroll of $96MM next year, about $40MM below where they finished in 2025. They may not get all the way back to those 2025 levels but it doesn’t seem there’s any need to further subtract. Rosenthal’s source says the club has “mild flexibility” to make additions. The Twins already have one of the top farm systems in the league, so perhaps adding more prospects to the stockpile isn’t a high priority.

Though the Twins believe they can contend in 2026, they will have work to do. The rotation looks to be in decent shape. In addition to Ryan and López, they have Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Abel, Bradley, Rojas and others. But the lineup was subpar last year. In addition to Correa, they also traded impending free agents Harrison Bader, Ty France and Willi Castro. They traded almost their entire bullpen and will have a big to-do list there.

Before even considering the flexibility to make external additions, they will need internal improvements. In the lineup, guys like Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee and other young players will need to either break out or return to form. It will be a similar situation for rotation options like Ober, Matthews, Festa, Abel and Bradley.

This is also a big development for other teams. Many of the other 29 clubs surely would have been calling about Ryan, López, Buxton and others if the Twins were going to continue to sell. If those players aren’t available, that could have domino effects elsewhere. Demand for the remaining free agents should increase somewhat. The same should apply for players that are available in trades, such as MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals or various players on the Cardinals.

It’s an interesting shake-up to the offseason. For the Twins, they will keep their top guys and see how things go in 2026. If they fall short in their attempt to compete, they could pivot to trading these players at the deadline. As mentioned, they have a strong farm system already, so perhaps returning to contention in 2027 would be possible even if 2026 comes up a bit short. For now, it dries up the trade market for other clubs, as the Twins will look for ways to utilize the bit of payroll flexibility they have.

Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Latest On Twins’ Offseason Direction

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Following the Twins’ deadline fire sale, the widespread expectation has been that they’d continue moving veteran players this offseason. That’s not necessarily the case. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic that his focus is on adding to the team, not subtracting, unless he “is told otherwise” by ownership. To this point, he has not given serious consideration to trading right-handers Pablo Lopez and/or Joe Ryan. The Pohlad family has reportedly not yet given the team’s front office a directive in terms of the budget for next season. If that eventual directive is to further lean into a rebuild, there might be another consequence: the potential acquiescence toward a trade from star center fielder Byron Buxton.

To this point, Buxton has made his desire to remain a Twin for his entire career clear. Even after this summer’s teardown of the roster, he emphasized that he had no plans to waive his no-trade clause and hoped to finish his career in Minnesota. The Twins’ offseason direction could put that loyalty to the test, as Hayes reports that Buxton might reconsider his stance if the team continues subtracting prominent players.

That’s hardly an announcement that Buxton wants out of Minnesota now, of course. It’s not impossible to see the bones of a competitive club in what the Twins still have on the roster. Lopez and Ryan are an excellent one-two combo atop the rotation. Bailey Ober had a rough 2025 season but was a quality mid-rotation arm for several years prior.

Beyond those three, Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, and David Festa are all young starters with mid-rotation upside who were considered top-100 prospects before debuting in the majors. The viability of that group will mostly be decided by the futures of veterans like Lopez, Ryan and Ober, though.

While 2025 was disappointing for infielders Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, no one should be surprised if the pair of former top prospects take a step forward next year and become the sort of high-end regulars Minnesota was hoping they could be when selecting each with a top-10 overall pick. Additional young talent is on the way as well, ranging from top outfield prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez to young infielder Luke Keaschall, who impressed in 207 plate appearances this year. Ryan Jeffers is already a quality regular behind the plate. Outfielders like Matt Wallner and Alan Roden have posted huge numbers in the minors, with the former enjoying some big league success at times (but also lacking consistency). Adding a reliable bat at first base could give the Twins the makings of a decent lineup.

Last summer’s flurry of trades slashed spending enough that the Twins project for a payroll of just $95MM next year, per RosterResource, down more than $40MM from last year’s Opening Day mark. It’s fair to wonder whether those savings will be reinvested or whether further cuts will be made. If it’s the latter, or if the front office is only given minimal space to add, then Lopez (owed $21.75MM in each of the next two seasons), Ryan (arbitration-eligible through 2027) and Jeffers (arb-eligible through 2026) are natural candidates to be moved.

It would be quite an intriguing turnaround if the Twins decided to make a run at contending in 2026, though they would have to rebuild essentially the entire bullpen. Prior to the deadline, they traded away Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland, Griffin Jax, Danny Coulombe and Brock Stewart.

Should the Twins go the other way and end up dealing from that group of quality veterans, perhaps Buxton would reconsider his previously stated desire to be a Twin for life. The soon to be 32-year-old veteran will make $45MM total over the final three seasons of the extension he signed in Minnesota. He can tack on an additional $10MM of earnings each season based on plate appearances and MVP voting.

That’s a bargain for the production he provides, with a .270/.330/.540 batting line (138 wRC+), 53 home runs, 31 steals and 8.7 fWAR in 228 games the past two years. If he was available, virtually any team in baseball would have interest in bringing Buxton into the fold. Big-spending contenders like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Mets all figure to be on the hunt for outfield help this winter, and if Buxton did decide to waive his no-trade clause he’d likely be able to have his pick of the litter in terms of destinations thanks to his favorable contract situation and excellent production.

Those big spending clubs wouldn’t be the only teams with interest if Buxton were to make himself available, and perhaps a team like the Astros or even Rays with payroll limitations but a strong commitment to winning nonetheless could get involved as well. Buxton’s commitment to the Twins over the years has shown he’s not afraid to try to win in a smaller market than New York or Los Angeles, though if he was to depart Minnesota it would surely be done with getting to the World Series firmly in mind after winning just one playoff series during his time with Minnesota.

Twins Rumors: Payroll, Ryan, Coaching Staff

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The Twins are expected to listen to trade offers on several of their remaining veterans after gutting the roster — particularly the bullpen — ahead of this year’s trade deadline. Right-handers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez ranked prominently on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 40 trade candidates, as did catcher Ryan Jeffers. The extent to which the Twins further subtract from the roster will at least in part stem from ownership’s budget for next year’s payroll. To this point, the Pohlad family has not given the baseball operations department “a clear direction” on next year’s payroll, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.

RosterResource currently projects a $95MM payroll for the Twins, which is down more than $40MM from their Opening Day mark in 2025. That doesn’t include potential subtractions from the arbitration class. Trevor Larnach, projected for a $4.7MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), stands as a non-tender or trade candidate. Obviously, trades of Ryan, Lopez and/or Jeffers would further scale back spending. Lopez is earning $21.75MM in each of the next two seasons. Ryan is projected for a $5.8MM salary. Jeffers is projected to earn $6.6MM. (Center fielder Byron Buxton is guaranteed $15MM but has a full no-trade clause and has said even after the team’s summer fire sale that he won’t consider approving a trade.)

The idea of Minnesota taking that newfound payroll flexibility and reinvesting it in a series of win-now moves to complement a roster still featuring Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, Jeffers and several promising young position players (Luke Keaschall perhaps chief among them) makes at least some sense on paper, but there’s little in the Pohlads’ history of owning the club to support the notion that they’d go that route. Further subtraction still seems likely, though until the Twins tip their hand with whatever the first moves of the offseason are, perhaps fans can hold out some faint hope for a quicker-than-expected turnaround.

Assuming they indeed operate more on the sell side of things, Ryan in particular will be one of the most sought-after names on the trade market. The Twins discussed the 29-year-old righty, who has two years of affordable arbitration control remaining, with several clubs ahead of the summer trade deadline. No deal came to pass, but the Red Sox are known to have had substantial discussions regarding the right-hander, while the Yankees and Mets were among the others to at least check in.

Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register adds the Angels to the list of clubs that showed interest in Joe Ryan prior to the trade deadline. With the Halos set to seek pitching upgrades again this winter, it stands to reason that they could circle back and talk with the Twins this winter. The Angels’ farm system is not well regarded, though they have a fair number of young big leaguers or nearly MLB-ready arms who could pique the Twins’ interest (e.g. George Klassen, Ryan Johnson, Nelson Rada, 2025 first-rounder Tyler Bremner).

The Angels would surely face competition in any bid for Ryan. The 2025 All-Star tossed 171 innings of 3.42 ERA ball this past season, fanning 28.2% of opponents against a tidy 5.7% walk rate. He sports a career 3.79 earned run average that’s skewed a bit by an outlier 4.51 mark in 2023. Ryan has virtually no platoon split in his career, with the main blemish against him being some susceptibility to home runs (particularly in that rocky ’23 campaign). Angel Stadium, notably, has been more conducive to home runs than Minneapolis’ Target Field — both over the past three seasons and in 2025, in particular.

Much of the focus in the early stages of the offseason will be in determining exactly which direction the Twins will go and — if they indeed sell more veterans — the depth of that potential teardown. Minnesota already had a relatively well-regarded farm system prior to the deadline, and the Twins now boast one of the best minor league systems in the sport. They’re not a system that’s devoid of minor league talent, so the extent to which ownership is willing to invest in the club will be especially instructive when it comes to their 2026 outlook.

Looking beyond the roster, however, there are still some short-term decisions that need to be made in the dugout. Longtime manager Rocco Baldelli was fired at season’s end and replaced by his former bench coach from 2019, Derek Shelton. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the Twins initially began their search for a manager with a speculative list running around 80 names deep. They whittled that to 15, conducted Zoom interviews with seven and held in-person interviews with Shelton, Yankees hitting coach James Rowson (another former Twins staffer) and former Mariners skipper Scott Servais.

The decision, per Nightengale, ultimately came down to Shelton or Rowson. While Shelton won the job in the end, the Twins are hopeful of hiring Rowson back to the organization as Shelton’s new bench coach, Nightengale reports. The rest of the staff is largely up in the air. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins will retain pitching coach Pete Maki, pairing him with newly hired bullpen coach LaTroy Hawkins to oversee the staff in Minnesota.

Third base coach Tommy Watkins has already departed for Atlanta, and Hayes writes that assistant bench coach/catching coach Hank Conger and quality control coach Nate Dammann have both been dismissed. Decisions have yet to be made on hitting coaches Matt Borgschulte, Trevor Amicone and Rayden Sierra.

Twins Place Ryan Jeffers On 7-Day IL, Designate Brooks Kriske

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The Twins announced that catcher Ryan Jeffers has been placed (retroactive to September 5) on the seven-day injured list for concussion-related injuries.  Right-hander Brooks Kriske was designated for assignment in another move, and the two open roster spots will be filled by Triple-A call-ups Pierson Ohl and Carson McCusker.

Jeffers hasn’t played since he left Thursday’s game after taking a foul ball off his mask.  The move to the seven-day IL will allow him at least a full week to recover from any lingering symptoms, and gives the Twins a bit of roster flexibility so they aren’t short-handed behind the plate.  Jhonny Pereda was already called up from Triple-A on Friday, and Pereda and Mickey Gasper will assume catching duties while Jeffers is sidelined.

One of the few experienced Twins players that wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, Jeffers has hit .262/.353/.394 with nine home runs over 442 plate appearances this season.  This translates to a 111 wRC+, which ranks Jeffers sixth of the 10 catchers who have played enough in 2025 to count as qualified hitters.  Jeffers’ power has dropped rather sharply over the last two seasons, yet the 2025 campaign has seen the backstop post career bests in both strikeout and walk rates.

It was just over a month ago that Kriske was claimed off the Cubs’ waiver wire, as Minnesota was looking to add some arms to a bullpen depleted by the team’s many deadline moves.  Unfortunately, Kriske’s brief time in the Twin Cities didn’t yield many positive results, as he was pounded to the tune of an 11.25 ERA over 12 innings, with almost as many walks (14) as strikeouts (15).  The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman notes that Kriske posted the second-highest ERA of any Twins pitcher in franchise history with at least 10 innings pitched.

Kriske probably won’t get a chance to improve on his standing, if he is released after clearing waivers.  Because teams are always in need of pitching depth, there’s a chance he could be claimed off waivers again, though Kriske’s recent results may not drum up much interest.  He also has a 9.56 ERA over 37 2/3 career innings in the majors, but the right-hander posted far better numbers during his minor league career and during a two-season stint in Japan in 2022-23.  Since Kriske has been outrighted before, he has the right to reject another outright assignment if he clears waivers, and instead opt for free agency.

Twins’ Ryan Jeffers Also Drew Interest At Trade Deadline

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The Twins shipped out nearly 40% of their roster but could’ve been even more active. Minnesota also received interest in catcher Ryan Jeffers from multiple teams, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, though obviously nothing came together.

Whether it was a case of the Twins not receiving a satisfactory offer or simply not having time to hammer out yet another swap involving a player controlled beyond the current season, Jeffers is still the Twins’ starting catcher — at least for now. He’s controllable only through the 2026 season, so it stands to reason that he could again be a trade candidate this winter. Perhaps if the Pohlad family can complete a sale of the team in the near future, new ownership will be more intent on keeping a competitive roster together for next season. However, as things currently stand, Jeffers seems likely to be available again in a few months’ time, given the sheer magnitude of Minnesota’s still-surprising deadline teardown.

The 28-year-old Jeffers (29 next June) is enjoying a third straight productive year at the plate, hitting .260/.345/.409 with eight homers, 22 doubles, a 9.8% walk rate and a career-low 19.3% strikeout rate. Dating back to the 2023 season, he’s a .250/.333/.441 hitter — good for a 117 wRC+ that ranks fifth among all qualified big league catchers in that time. His glovework isn’t as well regarded, but Jeffers isn’t a liability from a defensive standpoint by any means. He’s earning $4.55MM this year and will likely clear $7MM next season in his final year of club control.

It’ll be a thin market for teams seeking help behind the plate this winter, so Jeffers should hold plenty of appeal if the Twins do dangle him. The top options on the free agent market will be J.T. Realmuto, ahead of his age-35 season, and Victor Caratini, who’s never really handled a starter’s workload behind the dish. (Even this year, as Caratini is on track for a new career-high in plate appearances, he’s spent 24 games at DH and 11 at first base in addition to his 39 games behind the plate.)

There will be a few other options to consider, but this offseason’s catcher class is composed primarily of mid-30s backups and younger starters who are struggling through down years. Danny Jansen is having a sub-par year for a second straight season. Gary Sanchez will end up missing roughly one-third of the year with the PCL sprain that’s currently sidelining him. Salvador Perez can technically become a free agent, but the Royals will presumably pick up his $13.5MM club option (a net $11.5MM decision when considering the option’s $2MM buyout).

As explored at greater length by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco yesterday, Jeffers and top starter Joe Ryan headline a group of several logical offseason trade candidates who remain on the Twins’ roster after that deadline purge.

Twins More Seriously Listening To Offers On Rental Players

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The Twins have stumbled out of the gate with a 1-3 record in the second half and are beginning to more seriously weigh trades of their short-term players, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Utilityman Willi Castro, outfielder Harrison Bader and left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe are the team’s three most appealing free agents, but the Twins also have righty Chris Paddack, first baseman Ty France and backup catcher Christian Vazquez set to hit the market at season’s end.

[Related: Minnesota Twins Trade Deadline Outlook]

Of course, more of the focus for contending clubs will be on Minnesota’s more controllable and higher-profile talents. Top starter Joe Ryan and high-leverage relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax will draw widespread interest. Heyman notes that Twins brass won’t turn interested clubs away without hearing them out, but the they would understandably need to be bowled over to consider moving anyone from that group. All three pitchers are controlled for two additional seasons beyond the current campaign.

Among the rental players, Castro fits the broadest number of teams, given his versatility. The 28-year-old switch-hitter is enjoying a nice season at the plate, hitting .258/.350/.435 with 10 homers, 14 doubles, two triples, eight steals (ten attempts) and a career-best 10% walk rate. He’s been productive from both sides of the dish, has above-average speed (74th percentile, per Statcast) and is capable of playing second base, shortstop, third base and the outfield (although defensive metrics have panned his work at shortstop and in center). Castro is earning $6.4MM, making him affordable for virtually any contender.

Bader’s defensive excellence and bounceback year at the plate ought to garner plenty of interest as well. He’s hitting .249/.330/.438 as Minnesota’s primary left fielder, but he’s only in left because of Byron Buxton’s presence in center. Bader still grades out brilliantly at any outfield slot, and while he’s typically showed notable platoon splits, he’s posted nearly identical numbers against righties and lefties alike in 2025. By measure of wRC+, Bader has been 15% better than average at the plate. He’s sporting his highest walk rate in a 162-game season since 2019 and hitting for more power than he has since 2021 (12 home runs, 11 doubles, .189 ISO in 282 plate appearances). He’s on a one-year, $6.25MM contract with a mutual option that obviously won’t be exercised by both parties.

Coulombe has been quietly terrific. He missed three weeks earlier in the season with a forearm strain but has shown no ill effects. His 0.65 ERA in 27 2/3 frames is the best in baseball among the 433 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 20 innings, and Coulombe has fanned 26.9% of his opponents against a 6.5% walk rate. He doesn’t throw hard (90.2 mph average fastball) and isn’t going to make it the whole season without surrendering a home run — he’s currently yet to do so — but there aren’t many better left-handed options on the market. He’s playing on a one-year, $3MM contract.

The rest of the Twins’ rental options have some track record but are in the midst of poor seasons. Paddack still has good command, but he’s sitting on a 5.14 ERA and career-worst 16.4% strikeout rate. He had a nice run from mid-April to mid-June, but Paddack has never really held up for a whole season under a starter’s workload and has been hit hard since mid-June. He looked impressive in relief when he came back from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and is making a relatively affordable $7.5MM this season, so perhaps a club might roll the dice on him as a bullpen option. Otherwise, his appeal as a fifth starter is fairly limited.

France had a nice start but has seen his role decrease and is now mired in an awful 5-for-41 slump that’s dropped his previously solid batting line to .245/.309/.348. He’s not striking out and has played a strong first base, but he’s a bat-first player who’s in his third straight down year at the plate. France’s $1MM salary is low enough that another club could well roll the dice on adding him to its bench, but he’s not going to net the Twins anything of substance in a trade.

The 34-year-old Vazquez is in the final season of a three-year, $30MM contract that hasn’t gone as hoped. He was always signed to be a glove-first catcher and remains a plus defender, but his once-passable offense has cratered and he’s been thoroughly outplayed by Ryan Jeffers, who has long since claimed the starting role in Minnesota. Vazquez’s .182/.249/.260 batting line in 159 plate appearances is among the least-productive in baseball. He’s still such a good defender that another club might take him on if the Twins ate most of the money he’s owed, but like France and Paddack, he’s not going to net a prospect of any real note.

There are other players the Twins could conceivably market. Right-handed reliever Justin Topa has pitched decently on a $1MM salary and has a cheap $2MM club option for the 2026 season. The aforementioned Jeffers is in his penultimate season of club control, but the Twins lack an heir apparent in the upper minors and starting catchers rarely change teams midseason. Trevor Larnach has been a roughly league-average bat at DH and in the outfield corners and is controlled two more seasons beyond the current one. Righty Brock Stewart has been excellent since the Twins signed him to a minor league deal a couple years back (2.44 ERA, 32.6 K% in 73 2/3 innings since 2022), but he’s frequently been injured. He’s being paid $870K and has two seasons of club control remaining. He could be a nice bullpen piece in future Twins seasons, but if a team is willing to make a decent offer, there could be some temptation to sell high as well.

One player clearly not going anywhere is Buxton. The 2025 All-Star is signed for three more seasons, has a full no-trade clause, and during last week’s All-Star break called himself a “Minnesota Twin for the rest of my life.”

Twins Notes: Keaschall, Wallner, Lewis, Jeffers

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Top prospect Luke Keaschall provided a spark to a listless Twins lineup upon his initial call to the majors. The 2023 second-rounder has done nothing but hit since moving from Arizona State to pro ball, and the majors were no exception. Through the 22-year-old Keaschall’s first seven games, he hit .368/.538/.526 with more walks (five) than strikeouts (two) in 26 plate appearances. The former Sun Devil also tied a major league record with five stolen bases in his first five MLB games.

Keaschall landed on the injured list after an errant pitch from veteran Kyle Hendricks hit his forearm and resulted in a non-displaced fracture. For the time being, there’s no indication he’ll require surgery, but head trainer Nick Paparesta told the Twins beat last night that Keaschall is likely to miss multiple months nonetheless (link via Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Keaschall will be reevaluated in about one month.

The injury to Keaschall is the latest for a Twins club that has been torched by health troubles this season. Third baseman Royce Lewis has yet to play in a regular-season game. Utilityman Willi Castro is out with an oblique strain. Ace Pablo Lopez missed two weeks with a hamstring strain. Top infield prospect Brooks Lee is healthy now but started on the shelf with a back injury. Relievers Brock Stewart and Michael Tonkin opened the year on the injured list due to hamstring and shoulder strains, respectively. Infielder Jose Miranda struggled early, was optioned to Triple-A, and has since gone on the minor league injured list with a strain in his left hand.

Most of those injuries have been relatively minor in nature. Keaschall is the most significant injury, but slugging corner outfielder Matt Wallner is also looking at a lengthy absence. Via Hayes, Paparesta added that Wallner is dealing with a moderate to severe strain of his hamstring. Wallner only first began light jogging on a treadmill yesterday, two weeks after his initial injury. He’ll be reevaluated next week, but it seems likely that the injury will sideline him well into May, if not longer.

Wallner, 27, is hardly a household name but has emerged as the Twins’ top power threat. The Twin Cities native, selected 39th overall in 2019, floundered through a catastrophically poor start to his 2024 season but mashed for the final three months after being recalled from Triple-A. In 228 plate appearances following last year’s recall, Wallner hit .282/.386/.559 with a dozen homers, 16 doubles and a triple.

A sky-high .410 average on balls in play and an ugly 34% strikeout rate point to plenty of regression in batting average for Wallner, but he draws enough walks and makes enough hard contact that he could be a productive overall hitter even if his average dips into league average territory (.241) or a bit lower. Between last year’s torrid finish and this year’s hot start, Wallner boasts a .278/.383/.540 line (164 wRC+) in 295 plate appearances. He’s walked in more than 10% of those trips to the plate and posted eye-popping batted-ball metrics: 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 16.1% barrel rate, 52.3% hard-hit rate.

With Keaschall and Wallner out for extended periods and injuries at multiple other positions, the Twins have turned to the DFA market to add some depth on the bench. Jonah Bride and Kody Clemens came over in cash swaps with the Marlins and Phillies, respectively, after both were designated for assignment. Both are out of minor league options, so it could be a short stay for one of them on the roster, particularly once Lewis returns. He’s played two Triple-A rehab games already and gone 3-for-6 with a double. A return next week wouldn’t be a surprise.

The Twins could opt to preserve their depth by instead optioning Lee or Edouard Julien so they can get regular at-bats in Triple-A. The ultimate move will come down to health and production among the current infield group. It’s a more straightforward scenario in the outfield, where Harrison Bader — signed to be an oft-used fourth outfielder — will see regular run alongside Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach.

In general, the Twins’ lineup has begun to emerge from a dormant state. Facing clubs with poor pitching staffs like the White Sox and Angels surely plays a role, but Minnesota is hitting .276/.359/.432 as a team over the past two weeks. Unsurprisingly, they’ve gone 8-4 in that time. They’re still three games under .500, but the lineup is meshing and Lewis’ looming return creates reason for more optimism.

Part of that resurgence has been a blistering hot streak from catcher Ryan Jeffers. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote last week that manager Rocco Baldelli is moving away from the largely even split in playing time between Jeffers and veteran Christian Vazquez. Jeffers is seeing an uptick in at-bats and will shoulder a larger portion of the catching workload. So far, it’s paying off. Jeffers is hitting .308/.426/.538 during this Twins hot streak; that looks more closely in line with the 27-year-old’s terrific 2023 season and strong start to 2024.

A slow finish last year dampened Jeffers’ numbers, but he’s a .247/.331/.449 hitter (120 wRC+) in 885 plate appearances dating back to ’23. Jeffers tells Matthew Leach of MLB.com that he feels some mechanical changes he’s incorporated in recent years have reached the point where he no longer even needs to think about them.

The move away from Vazquez is understandable, particularly at a time when the lineup was struggling. The 34-year-old remains a premier defensive catcher but has limped out of the gate with a .139/.200/.250 output in 14 games and 40 plate appearances. He’s in the final season of a three-year, $30MM contract that hasn’t panned out as the Twins hoped, but Vazquez’s glove is strong enough that he can hold a backup role even with a .218/.261/.318 slash in 710 plate appearances as a Twin. Jeffers, meanwhile, is in his second of three arbitration seasons and can be controlled through 2026.

The Twins’ Quietly Elite Catcher

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For years in Minnesota, the catching position was the strongest on the roster. Hometown kid and former No. 1 overall pick Joe Mauer went from ballyhooed prospect to three-time batting champion and 2009 American League MVP. He solidified the spot for a decade, hitting .323/.405/.469 in more than 5000 plate appearances from 2004-13.

When concussions forced Mauer over to first base, the Twins turned things over to a series of veterans as they struggled to develop an in-house replacement. Kurt Suzuki and Jason Castro both inked multi-year deals to serve as the starting catcher in Minnesota. Those contracts actually panned out reasonably well; Suzuki hit .263/.316/.364 in three seasons and made the 2014 All-Star team. Castro hit .229/.325/.390 in his three seasons and provided elite defense. Along the way, the Twins succeeded in developing one high-end offensive catcher — Mitch Garver — but struggled to keep him healthy. Garver was eventually traded to the Rangers for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez. Kiner-Falefa was then immediately flipped to the Yankees alongside Josh Donaldson in a swap that netted the Twins Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela (while shedding the remainder of Donaldson’s $92MM contract).

Somewhat lost in the shuffle during that catching carousel was 2018 second-rounder Ryan Jeffers. The UNC-Wilmington product had a nice debut showing in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, slashing .273/.355/.436 in a small sample of 62 plate appearances. Jeffers, however, fanned in more than 30% of his plate appearances that year and experienced even more pronounced contact issues in the two subsequent seasons.

From 2021-22, he hit just .203/.277/.384 with a 32.4% strikeout rate. The power was apparent (21 homers, .182 ISO in 529 plate appearances), but Jeffers’ contact issues rendered him a well below-average hitter. The Twins, in win-now mode after a strong 2022 campaign, signed veteran Christian Vazquez to a three-year, $30MM deal that generally aligned with market expectations.

Heading into the 2023 season, Jeffers wasn’t relegated to a traditional backup role, but there was a clear expectation that he and Vazquez would be in a timeshare behind the plate — likely with the defensively superior Vazquez handling a bit more of the workload. Through the season’s first few months, that’s precisely how things played out, too. Vazquez received 202 first-half plate appearances to Jeffers’ 157. Vazquez provided his typical brand of elite defense but hit just .210/.287/.265 in that time. Jeffers, on the other hand, hit .256/.357/.421 — numbers more in line with his intriguing rookie showing from 2020.

Following the All-Star break, the balance of playing time tilted in the other direction. It was Jeffers who found his name called more often, picking up 178 plate appearances to Vazquez’s 153. While Vazquez improved a bit offensively in the season’s second half, Jeffers saw his production soar to heights not seen by a Minnesota catcher in years. In the final two-plus months of the season, the 26-year-old mashed at a .294/.379/.549 clip and belted 10 homers. By measure of wRC+, that was 54% better than the league-average hitter. And considering catchers tend to be about 12% worse than the average hitter, Jeffers’ breakout was all the more eye-catching.

It didn’t appear to be simple small-sample noise, either. Jeffers made notable gains in his contact ability, fanning at a reduced (but still higher-than-average) 26.4% clip post-break last season. That includes a strikeout rate of just 17.1% in the season’s final month. While he didn’t suddenly reduce his chase rate on pitches off the plate, Jeffers took a noticeably more aggressive approach overall and seemed to benefit from it. His 50.3% overall swing rate in September was markedly higher than the 43.7% of pitches at which he’d offered in the five months prior. He’d previously made contact on 57.5% of his chases off the plate and 82.2% of his swings within the strike zone; those jumped to 71.4% and 87.8%, respectively, in the final month of play.

We’re now five weeks into the 2024 season, and Jeffers has picked up right where he left off last September. He’s hitting .300/.393/.556 on the season and has already popped five homers in his 107 plate appearances. His 16.8% strikeout rate is an easy career-low. The more aggressive approach he showed late last year remains in place, as he’s swinging at a 47.4% clip with better contact off the plate and within the zone that he’d shown prior to last September.

Jeffers has made himself veritably indispensable in the Twins’ lineup. He’s appeared in 27 of their 30 games: 14 at catcher and 11 at designated hitter. Manager Rocco Baldelli has begun to bat Jeffers in the top-third of his lineup with regularity. Seventy percent of his plate appearances have come while batting first, second or third this year. Jeffers has long pounded left-handed pitching (career .267/.362/.487), but he’s now hitting .285/.368/.489 against righties dating back to Opening Day 2023 — a wild improvement over the .185/.256/.361 slash he posted versus righties from 2020-22.

And, for all the talk about Vazquez’s defense earlier, it should be noted that Jeffers is hardly a slouch himself in that regard. Statcast was down on his ability to block balls in the dirt last season (five blocks below average), but Jeffers has routinely drawn positive overall grades from Defensive Runs Saved. He’s been better than average in that regard in each other season of his big league career, however, and Jeffers has been an average or better pitch framer in his career as a whole, per both FanGraphs and Statcast. He has a slightly below-average caught-stealing rate in his career, but much of that stems from an ugly 13% caught-stealing rate as a rookie. Jeffers nabbed 25% of thieves in 2023 (league-average was 21%) and is 1-for-5 in 2024 (23% is league-average).

Since last season, there are 75 big league catchers who’ve tallied at least 100 plate appearances. Jeffers’ 146 wRC+ leads the pack by a massive margin; the Contreras brothers check in at 133 (William Contreras) and 132 (Willson Contreras) and stand as the No. 2 and 3 entrants on that list. Yes, it’s still only a sample of 442 plate appearances for Jeffers, but he’s been far and away the best-hitting catcher in the majors going back to last year, quietly topping stars like Will Smith, Adley Rutschman, Sean Murphy and the Contreras brothers on a per-plate-appearance basis. Granted, Jeffers isn’t going to top WAR leaderboards because of his more even timeshare with Vazquez and lesser defensive skills to names like Murphy, Rutschman, Patrick Bailey and others — but he’s nevertheless stepped out as one the game’s premier hitters at his position.

Perhaps the Vazquez addition took some pressure off Jeffers, but the breakout at the plate and the Twins’ efforts to scale back payroll this past offseason do combine to make that signing look superfluous. Vazquez is a flat-out elite defender, but he’s hitting .222/.273/.309 in 421 plate appearances as a Twin. For a team that was up against some pretty noticeable payroll constraints from ownership in the offseason, that $10MM-per-year salary could certainly be allocated in a more efficient way.

That’s not to disparage Vazquez; had Twins ownership merely allowed the front office to maintain last year’s roughly $155MM payroll, his salary wouldn’t even be all that cumbersome to manage — and there’s surely intangible benefit to him working with Jeffers and with the team’s pitching staff. Still, the Twins spent relatively heavily to install a starting-caliber option behind the dish, only to see one of their young, in-house options emerge as the cornerstone backstop they’d been seeking all along.

Jeffers remains highly affordable for the Twins, earning just $2.425MM this season in his first trip through arbitration. He’s well on his way to earning a major raise on top of that salary if he can continue to hit as he has going back to Opening Day 2023. He’ll be arb-eligible twice more and is controllable through the 2026 season. As a Boras Corporation client, Jeffers doesn’t stand out as the likeliest candidate to sign a long-term deal, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins wouldn’t be interested in hammering out some kind of deal to keep him in Minneapolis longer than he’s currently slated to stay.

Twins Notes: Paddack, Lewis, Kirilloff, Jeffers

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Twins right-hander Chris Paddack is making progress in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Hayes relays that, according to Twins training staff, Paddack is around ten days away from facing live hitters for the first time since he went under the knife last May.

Initially, Paddack was hoping to return to the big league mound this month, though given the time he’ll need to spend building up stamina after graduating to facing live hitters, it’s hardly a surprise that timeline was more recently pushed back to sometime in September, with the distinct possibility that return will have to come out of the bullpen rather than as a member of the rotation. While sixteen months away from the majors following Tommy John surgery is a certainly a longer rehab process than has become the norm in recent years, it’s worth remembering that this is Paddack’s second surgery, as he also went under the knife as a prospect back in 2016.

Regardless of if Paddack ultimately makes it back to pitch for the Twins this year, the 27-year-old hurler figures to be a key piece of Minnesota’s pitching staff in the long term. The Twins agreed to a three-year deal with Paddack this past offseason that guaranteed him $12.5MM while buying out what otherwise would have been the first year of his free agency. With Paddack locked up through the end of the 2025 season and current rotation pieces Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda both slated for free agency this coming offseason, Paddack figures to join Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Pablo Lopez as part of Minnesota’s rotation of the future.

For his career, Paddack has been a roughly league average starter with a 4.20 ERA (97 ERA+) and a 3.94 FIP in 330 1/3 innings of work. Those career numbers are somewhat hampered by Paddack’s struggles in a pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign and an injury-shortened 2021 season; the Twins are surely hoping that, once fully healthy, Paddack can return to the form he displayed in 2019 when he posted a 3.33 ERA in 140 2/3 innings of work.

Also taking positive steps in his attempt to return from injury is infielder Royce Lewis, who has missed the past month with an oblique strain after starting the season on the injured list while recovering from knee surgery. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune, Lewis took batting practice on the field yesterday as he continues to ramp up his rehab process. Nightengale indicates that Lewis could rejoin the Twins’ lineup as soon as this month, though he cautions that Lewis’s return is still a matter of weeks away rather than days.

Lewis’s return would surely provide a major boost to a Twins lineup that has suffered a variety of injuries throughout the season, with Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, and Jose Miranda all currently joining Lewis on the shelf. In 26 games this season, the talented youngster has slashed .326/.354/.474 that’s good for a 131 wRC+. That figure would represent a massive upgrade over the club’s current production at the hot corner, as Twins third basemen have combined for a wRC+ of just 90 this season with a 0.7 fWAR that ranks bottom ten in the majors.

While Minnesota’s lineup has received encouraging news on Lewis, the same cannot be said regarding first baseman Alex Kirilloff, who went on the injured list with a shoulder strain at the end of July. Per MLB.com, Kirilloff, who previously underwent an MRI and received a cortisone injection in his ailing shoulder, “was still in the resting and strengthening phase of his recovery” yesterday, with no clear timetable for return. The 25 year old was enjoying something of a breakout season at the plate prior to his injury, locking down first base for the Twins with a slash line of .270/.357/.442 (124 wRC+) in 258 trips to the plate this season.

With Kirilloff on the shelf for the foreseeable future, the Twins have needed to look elsewhere in the lineup for offensive production. Fortunately for the club, they’ve found it in the bat of 26-year-old catcher Ryan Jeffers. While he’s played just 63 games this season thanks to sharing time behind the dish with offseason acquisition Christian Vazquez, Jeffers has slashed a phenomenal .292/.392/.503 (152 wRC+) in 203 trips to the plate this season. That production has seemingly earned Jeffers additional playing time, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman relays that manager Rocco Baldelli has indicated Jeffers will receive starts at DH while Buxton is on the shelf in addition to his usual timeshare with Vazquez.

Twins, Christian Vazquez Agree To Three-Year Deal

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The Twins have jumped into a fast-moving catching market, reportedly agreeing to terms with Christian Vázquez on a three-year contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, will guarantee him $30MM. Vázquez is represented by MDR Sports Management.

A longtime member of the Red Sox, Vázquez now changes uniforms for the second time in five months. Boston dealt him to the Astros at this past summer’s trade deadline, bringing back prospects Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez for the final half-season before he hit free agency. That left Vázquez in an unfamiliar role splitting time with Martín Maldonado, but it positioned him to secure his second World Series title.

Vázquez, 32, is one of the better all-around catchers in the game. A light-hitting defensive specialist for his first few seasons, the Puerto Rico native has taken a step forward with the bat over the past four years. He hit .276/.320/.477 in 521 plate appearances in 2019, popping a career-best 23 home runs. Vázquez hasn’t replicated that kind of power outside a season with perhaps the liveliest ball the league has ever used, never reaching double digit longballs in another season. Still, he’s been an adequate hitter in two of the past three years. Vázquez stumbled to a .258/.308/.352 mark in 2021, but he was an above-average hitter during the abbreviated 2020 campaign and roughly league average this past season.

Going back to the start of 2019, he owns a .271/.318/.416 line in slightly more than 1600 plate appearances. That’s five percentage points below league average overall, by measure of wRC+, but it’s above par for a catcher. Backstops have a cumulative .232/.304/.390 mark over that stretch. Vázquez doesn’t draw many walks and, 2019 aside, rarely hits for power. His high-contact approach differentiates him from most of his positional peers, as he owns the fifth-lowest strikeout percentage among catchers (minimum 750 plate appearances) since the start of 2019.

The 2022 season was generally par for the course. Among 29 catchers with 300+ trips to the dish, he had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (16.2%) and fourth-best rate of contact per swing (85.1%). Overall, Vázquez posted a .274/.315/.399 line in 119 games. He carried an impressive .282/.327/.432 mark with the Red Sox before the trade but stumbled to a .250/.278/.308 showing in 35 regular season games as an Astro. Vázquez also did very little offensively in his six-game playoff showing.

The Twins clearly aren’t deterred by that slow finish to the year. That came in an unfamiliar role dividing his reps with Maldonado, and Minnesota presumably anticipates he’ll more closely approximate his production from his time in Boston moving forward. Offense is only part of the story and Vázquez has an excellent reputation with the glove.

For his career, Vázquez has nabbed just under 34% of attempted basestealers. He had a more modest 27.1% mark this year, but that’s still narrowly above the roughly 25% league average. Statcast also credits him with a better than average arm, placing him 20th among 73 catchers with 10+ throws in pop time (average time to throw to second base). Vázquez consistently draws strong grades from public pitch framing metrics. Pair strong receiving with his ability to control the running game, he’s been rated as an above-average catcher by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in all but one season of his career. DRS pegged him 11 runs above par in 2022 and has rated him as 51 runs above average over his eight years in the majors.

That wealth of experience calling games certainly added to Vázquez’s appeal to the Minnesota front office. The Twins have young backstop Ryan Jeffers on hand already. The 25-year-old will continue to see a fair amount of run at Target Field, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have each spoken of a desire to add another starting-caliber catcher to pair with Jeffers. They’ve done just that, leaving manager Rocco Baldelli to decide how to divvy up playing time.

Jeffers, a right-handed hitter, has been far better against lefty pitching (.263/.344/.450) than same-handed opponents (.185/.256/.361) through his first couple MLB campaigns. Vázquez also hits right-handed and is better against southpaws, but his career splits aren’t so drastic. He has a .257/.309/.422 line against lefty arms and a .263/.310/.372 mark against right-handers. Falvey has already suggested the Twins don’t plan to relegate Jeffers solely to the small side of a platoon, but the presence of a more balanced hitter in Vázquez gives Baldelli some more flexibility in matching up against opposing pitchers.

It’s the first meaningful dip into free agency for Minnesota this offseason. Vázquez’s contract lands right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of $27MM over three years. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but an even distribution of $10MM annually would bring Minnesota’s 2023 payroll around $107MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. There’s a fair amount of room before getting to this past season’s approximate $134MM mark, and the Twins surely aren’t finished. Addressing shortstop — where the organization awaits Carlos Correa’s decision — is the big question, but the Twins also could stand to upgrade both areas of the pitching staff (especially the bullpen) and potentially shake up their outfield.

Vázquez’s signing follows last week’s five-year agreement between the Cardinals and Willson Contreras and this afternoon’s blockbuster that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. As a result, the catching market is drying up quickly. The Blue Jays can still dangle one of their three backstops, with Danny Jansen seemingly the most likely to move. Free agency is without many obvious solutions at this point, with glove-first players like Austin Hedges, Tucker Barnhart, Roberto Pérez and Mike Zunino (the latter two of whom saw their 2022 seasons cut short by surgery) among the options.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported Vázquez was making progress on a deal with an unknown team. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the backstop was in agreement with the Twins. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported it was a three-year contract, while Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily was first to report the $30MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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