When the Cubs made it back to the postseason in 2025, they did so short-handed. The club had lost staff ace Justin Steele just four starts into his 2025 season to UCL revision surgery. That procedure, which Steele underwent in mid-April of last year, came with an initial recovery timeline of roughly one year. There’s been minimal updates on Steele’s status since then, but the left-hander (as noted by MLB.com) took a big step forward in his rehab last week when he threw off a mound for the first time since going under the knife.
In an interview with Elise Menaker of Marquee Sports Network, Steele noted that while he doesn’t have a specific timeline for his return to the majors, he expects to face hitters at some point during Spring Training and added that he’s not only suffered no setbacks but is “ahead of schedule, if anything.” That’s certainly a positive sign for Cubs fans who are hoping to see Steele back on the mound early in the 2026 campaign. The team returns its entire rotation from 2025 but could benefit this year from a full season from Rookie of the Year runner-up Cade Horton and the addition of right-hander Edward Cabrera, who the Cubs swung a deal to land from the Marlins earlier this month.
With Cabrera, Horton, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and Colin Rea all set to be on the big league roster to start the year (to say nothing of depth options like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown behind that group), the team’s crowded rotation mix could lead the Cubs to be a bit more careful with Steele’s rehab than they otherwise might be. After all, there are nine other starters on the team’s 40-man roster, before getting into the possibility that top prospect Jaxon Wiggins debuts at some point this year and the ability for a non-roster arm like Connor Noland to chip in some innings as well.
Steele himself acknowledged in his interview with Menaker that Dr. Keith Meister (who performed Steele’s surgery back in April) will likely suggest some sort of full-season innings limit for the lefty as he works his way back onto the mound. After adding Cabrera and Alex Bregman to a team that came within one game of the NLCS last year, the Cubs certainly have hopes of playing deep into October this year. They’ll also surely want a healthy Steele to be part of those playoff plans, so if Chicago’s rotation mix is mostly healthy throughout the first half of the season it could make sense for the team to slow-play Steele’s rehab and focus on having innings left to work with come the postseason.
Of course, health in the rotation is no guarantee. Imanaga, Horton, Taillon, and Cabrera all spent time on the injured list last year, while 2025 was Boyd’s first time making 30 starts in a year since 2018. Any of those pitchers once again needing significant time on the shelf this year can’t be ruled out, and slow-playing Steele’s rehab could leave them in position to be caught short-handed if the team’s rotation struggles to stay healthy early in the year. While players like Assad, Brown, and Wicks are quality depth, it’s difficult to argue that a version of Steele that’s even just approaching full strength wouldn’t be a safer bet to produce than that trio of youngsters.
Steele’s been one of the most effective starters in baseball since he broke out midway through the 2022 season, and since that time only nine pitchers (min. 300 innings pitched) have a lower ERA. That group of nine names is a who’s who of the leagues top aces, ranging from Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal and Shohei Ohtani to Chris Sale, Max Fried, and Zack Wheeler. It would be difficult to leave that sort of upside on the sidelines for longer than absolutely necessary, especially when Chicago will be looking to chase down a Brewers team that both won the NL Central crown last year and also knocked them out of the playoffs back in October. However the Cubs ultimately decide to handle Steele’s rehab, they surely won’t make any firm decisions until Spring Training gets underway and they have a better understanding of the other pitchers on the roster in terms of their own health.
I ❤️ baseball
Why doesn’t the Man of Steel need a boss?
Because he already has supervision!
Amazing how an interview during Cubs Convention last weekend becomes a story 8 days later. Should have thrown the BREAKING NEWS banner!
*HarryCaray
Six man rotation a real possibility w this club. Steele needs to be limited, Horton is still building up his workload, and Boyd & Cabrera both have injury concerns. Maxes them out at 27 starts for the regular season.
Steele
Horton
Boyd
Cabrera
Imanaga
Taillon
Plus Jaxon Wiggins will likely be called up at some point. Probably start in the bullpen but if he is effective he should be a swingman spot starter.
Definitely looking forward to Wiggins getting a look this year. I would expect him to begin in the ‘pen, especially w Cubs starting depth, but you never know. Hopefully everyone stays healthy!
A lot will depend on how healthy they can keep Cabrera. Also Boyd was completely gassed the last month or two from pitching so many innings. Imanaga threw batting practice the last month or two as well… And Wicks is- what? And which Ben Brown will show up? On the plus side, they should start to be able to get more innings out of Horton who was outstanding; Taillon had a very solid season; maybe Wiggins will be ready; and Steele at full strength by midseason, would be huge.
Wicks is an excellent SP who the Cubs have built into a mid 90’s fastball, Fantastic change, Just needs to hone his slider a bit. Brown has to either add a Change or a curve to go with his slider who if he doesn’t can still be a reliever with Closer upside and Assad can be anything you want. Don’t sleep on Sanders or Noland either. Cubs have 3 mid 30’s starters who probably won’t be here in 2027 in Taillon, Boyd and Shota. Steele will be 32 in 2027 when he’s available for a full workload again IF he doesn’t have a setback and he still only has 2 pitches also. So in 27 hopefully you have Horton, Cabrera and Wiggins with some version of the others mixed in barring FA signings or trades. This year should bring a lot of clarity to the situation.
@Uncle: I’m not as high on Wicks as you are, and have never seen any real major-league ability in Assad: his ceiling is so, so low. But agree with you otherwise, and would like to see Wiggins, Sanders, and maybe Noland get some starts. Rookies can’t break through if they aren’t given the chance to.
Wicks just needs 2 things one being a chance and 2 just figuring out how to put just a little more movement on his fastball. All things he can work on at Iowa this year. Boyd can start this year and depending on how it goes he could end up as a LH in the pen at the end of this year or maybe re sign him for 27 for the pen. I really thought they signed him to be the Closer last year. Depending on what happens with Palencia, Hodge and Harvey. The best thing you can have for a MLB pitching staff is options. This staff has a lot of different ways it can go. I think Rondon was right that Boyd was a little gassed at the end last year and pitched fairly well in the Playoffs despite being asked to be a #1 starter even though he isn’t. He had the one bad game but was fair after that.
Assad does have a low ceiling, although he has some 331 innings of MLB work that is still much better than average. You don’t want him in your opening day 5-man, although many teams would like to have that kind of depth guy.
I’ve tried to stay that high on Wicks, but he’s going on his 6th year in the system. This may be the year he “figures it out”, or never does as a Cub.
The only Ben Brown I want to see showing up is the one who comes in during the 6th, 7th, and/or 8th inning to get 3 outs with his upper 90s heater and hammer curveball. He’s a reliever, and w his stuff he can be a damn good one if they stop trying to make a starter out of him.
Agreed.
A team can never have too much pitching.
I’ve never heard that one before. Did you just make that up?
And if you’ve got cash, it’s as good as money!
I wish the Braves had this sentiment smh.
Yep, a good problem to have.
Everyone panned the Rea signing last year and I didn’t think much of it. He was one of the unsung heroes last year. While I preferred the Cubs to spend more on a legit closer this offseason it will be interesting if they add Gallen to this already deep mix.
That’s not going to happen.
Appears as though GM has built Rotation, not to depend on Steele. Should he get over his injuries and become effective again, it’s a bonus.
Cubs fans are funny. This was profound? It’s the only way you can look at it if you’re building a roster/rotation.
The optimistic ETA for him is around the all star break
Clark the Cub and Jeff Kent had a baby
And then there’s you, who apparently came from a test tube.
Glad to hear Steele’s recovery going well. Kid really knows how to pitch. As a fan of a division rival, I didn’t miss him too much. 😁
Steele, like the others in the rotation, is kinda hard to trust. Despite the good results, his availability has been poor. Going on 31, and he’s reached 135 IP once in his career, Good as he can be, the team’s rotation is way too dependent on on guys where 120 IP feels like an ironman season.
What was the most innings thrown by a Dodgers pitcher other than Yamamoto last season?
You’re comparing the Dodgers’ injuries last season to the Cubs’ rotation that has a history of injuries, which included last season. The Dodgers also has incredible depth in talented arms to give guys rest and slow play injury recoveries.
The Cubs demand perfect health to have a viable pitching staff for the regular season. The Dodgers’ depth was #2-3 starters, while the Cubs’ depth is #4-5 guys.
Well, that’s what you get when you spend 3 to 4 hundred million in payroll. If every team spent that much they could all have “#2-3 starters”.
Getting Steele back by late April or early May would be a huge boost for the Cubs.
Ben Brown is a reliever now. Very promising strikeout numbers last year when he was put in that role.
Dougy.. Did you read the piece? Only 9 pitchers have had a lower ERA since ‘22. There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t want this guy. You can’t “overrate” that pal.