Zac Gallen is one of two unsigned players who declined a qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. The former All-Star righty is also arguably the second-best pitcher available behind Framber Valdez. It has nevertheless been a quiet winter in terms of rumors, and the odds of Gallen settling for a pillow contract are presumably rising as Spring Training approaches.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post appeared on MLB Network this week and provided an update on the starter’s market. Heyman listed the Cubs, Orioles and incumbent Diamondbacks as teams that remain in the mix. He added that the Angels and Padres have “checked in” this offseason as well but implied that the latter two teams are longer shots to get something done.
No one from that group is an ideal fit. The O’s have been most frequently connected to Valdez. Gallen feels more like a fallback target if Valdez’s asking price remains above Baltimore’s comfort zone. The Diamondbacks made a two-year, $40MM investment to bring back Merrill Kelly and signed Michael Soroka to a one-year deal. They’d still have room in the rotation for Gallen, but GM Mike Hazen suggested recently that the Kelly contract limited their financial flexibility to sign an established late-inning reliever.
That doesn’t bode especially well for their chances of fitting Gallen in the budget unless owner Ken Kendrick makes an exception to bring back a player with whom he’s familiar. Even if Gallen takes a two-year deal with an opt-out clause, he’d probably command something close to the $22.025MM qualifying offer salary which he declined at the beginning of the winter.
The Cubs went to the trade market for their biggest upgrade, sending a package led by outfield prospect Owen Caissie to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera. He’ll pair with Cade Horton at the top of a rotation that could get Justin Steele back from elbow surgery within the first couple months of the season. Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks are on hand as a decent collection of depth starters.
Further bolstering the rotation isn’t necessarily a need, but Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that the Cubs are keeping their options open on that front. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged the higher risk of pitching injuries in the modern game and pointed out that teams often need to lean on nine or ten starters to get through a season. While that doesn’t mean they’re certainly aggressively pursuing Gallen, they’ll probably keep in contact until the veteran righty makes his decision.
The Padres and Angels have more acute rotation needs. Payroll is the bigger question for both clubs. San Diego already surprised by re-signing Michael King on a three-year, $75MM deal with opt-outs. The Angels have limited themselves to a handful of cheap one-year deals. That leaves them with a decent amount of spending room before they hit last season’s level, but there’s also no indication that ownership is willing to spend much this offseason.
Other teams known to remain in the starting pitching market include the Tigers, Braves, Athletics and White Sox. Detroit was loosely linked to Gallen around the Winter Meetings but has more recently been tied to the likes of Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt and Nick Martinez. None of the others have been publicly linked to Gallen this offseason, and it’d be a particular surprise to see a rebuilding White Sox team part with a draft pick to sign a qualified free agent.
lol bidding war for gallen
Haha yeah if it was 2022 😂
i mean it could be a mini one 😉
Insane that he’s looking at 25 million a season.
25 million for a 1 year deal is possible (but still feels high for Gallen coming off that season).
2 at 40 or 3 at 55 seems like reasonable
Would a team give up a draft pick just to sign him for 1-2 years? The QO further diminishes his value.
He finished the season better than he started. Velocity was up and walks were down. I’d 100 percent take a flyer on Gallen. 4-5 WAR upside. Worst case he’s an inning eater solid rotation piece.
the market is wild
Maybe the Tigers will step in if the price is right.
Honest question, whats thw right price? The market is insane
He should have taken the QO which is like 22 mil. He had a down season for his standard last year and w that pick tied to him, he has no market. He’s prob looking for King money thou, 3/75 mil
Cease had a down season and still got $210m. King was injured and is still guaranteed $75m. Imanaga down season and was still given the QO. Pitching is expensive. Gallen will get at least QO money
What’s insane about it? It seems to be largely tracking to projections, some up, some down, with a couple of fairly unique shorter term quite high AAV deals. But the top guys are often the ones exceeding expectations.
the pick is the killer here. none of The Teams With Money decided on him, and those without can’t convince themselves on his upside after his ‘25. odd case, dbacks always felt most likely but if not, angels cubs orioles would be my bets
His 2025 numbers weren’t good. And why would anyone believe his 26 numbers will be better
VSDF
“why would anyone believe his 26 numbers will be better”
Because he was good before ’25
@Pohle The pick absolutely hurts him here. Teams have obvious reasons to be leery if a lengthy deal with him. So giving up the comp pick for a proven it deal on a rental is by all means not ideal.
It is kind of surprising he didn’t take the QO. Many players have been getting high AAV short deals and opt outs in their favor, I dont see the current market being ideal for Gallen coming off a down yr and carrying burden of QO.
The O’s only lose their 3rd pick – around 46th pick overall. Less downside for them.
Thanks Steven. Yeah losing a 3rd is much more palatable especially for a 1 yr deal.
They should. Give him him a deal with opt outs if that’s what it takes. One down year doesn’t mean he’s a bad pitcher. I remember one year in Detroit when Verlanders stats went down and everyone talked like his career was done. That didnt happen. Tigers need pitching for next year too with Flaherty, Mize and Skubal possibly leaving. Ibthink Gallen bounces back this year and will be a bargain for someone.
the issue is that you are paying draft pick compensation on top of the money. In a long term deal that 10m in value for the pick is a drop in the bucket, but i would be angry if my team dropped 25m on him and lost a draft pick for a single season.
James
“i would be angry if my team dropped 25m on him and lost a draft pick for a single season.”
What if he provided $36 million in value in that one season?
I agree; Gallen wouldn’t be the first to bounce back after a rough season, especially considering how consistent he was prior to last year. Just wonder if the serious mid-level teams, like Tigers, Angels & Padres, might be waiting until May when they won’t have to lose a draft pick…
What’s the history on guys signing late; as a result, not having a full spring training? Anyone by chance know some of the more recent examples?
From what I recall it isn’t very good. I could be wrong, though. Either way, Gallen, or any team that signs him, might want to go ahead and pull the trigger. Ditto for F.Valdez.
Results are typically pretty bad from my recollection. Think Pivotta is the lone exception or near enough. It’s still not late thou, but in a couple more weeks- I would just stick my roster instead of adding an overpriced hold out late
Blake Snell with the Giants and Jordan Montgomery with the Dbacks are the two most recent I can remember who missed a lot/all of spring training bc of late signing, neither performed well at all when they first saw action.
Richarde: Blake Snell signed late with the Giants in 2024 and he didn’t pitch well for many weeks after signing. Had a really good 2nd half though.
@richard c
The player is the one that has to pull the trigger. I’m sure teams have made offers, he just doesn’t care for his reality.
it is not good for hitters, but possible. Micheal Borne is the poster child of this, but there were other reasons he took so long to sign (he was coming off a season everyone knew was a fluke career year).
For pitching- 50% chance they are never right the whole season. The other 50% chance that even a week of spring training costs them 2-3 months to ramp up and they are not right until mid season. Montgomery was just a mess, Snell took a while to get up to speed.
That also is post start of spring training signing- these guys have 2 more weeks until pitchers/catchers report, and almost a month until everyone else.
This just feels like an Angels signing.
I know I was about to say it feels like a 1-2 year angels signing that gets DFA’d in august
No way! They are building the roster with minor league pacts.
The QO has killed his market, unfortunately. None of the rebuilders are gonna make an offer, as he’ll be gone in a year or at most two and that’s not worth losing the pick. And the competitors are mostly full up, either on pitchers or money.
Not helping Framber either.
I think there are a couple of things that aren’t helping Framber, with Framber himself being equally as impactful as the QO.
Framber not helping Framber.
Yeah that video of him purposely crossing up his own catcher is a pretty awful look!
but he is good enough a team will deal with the backlash… but they will want a discount to deal with it.
This is exactly what I was referencing and if it happened once, the likelihood that there are clubhouse issues not publicly known is great.
I think the bigger question on Valdez is whether the catchers on any team who might be interested sign off on him. I don’t think purposely hitting your own catcher is screaming I’m a good clubhouse/culture/teammate. That has to eliminate a decent amount of teams being in on him. Fitting on a team is pretty important in most organizations. Talent is positive. Makeup is not.
Look deeper.
I’d bet that cross up thing has nothing to do with his still being unsigned. I think it’s all about the number of years. He’s probably asking for 5 years, but at the age of 32, teams are wary of that number. Especially the Giants who announced their desire to avoid long-term deals for pitchers. He’s hoping someone will blink and offer the extra year, and teams are waiting for him to come off his ask. But I think there’s still plenty of interest.
The cardinals should come calling.
He chose a bad time to start being an average player. Probably should have taken the QO.
He’ll still get the QO money or very close to it. He’s a solid rotation option, but he’s probably angling for a 2-3 yr guarantee with Y1/2 opt-out.. hard for teams to stomach a potential 1yr commitment with draft pick compensation attached.
I don’t think teams are as concerned about the lost pick for a 1 year commitment. They don’t want to give Gallen 3 years at what he’s looking for an lose a pick.
He’d be signed tomorrow if he accepts 1/$22MM even with the QO. He prob signs for 2 years with an opt out.
Definitely there’s some resistance to a long-term deal, and I’m guessing that Gallen’s camp is negotiating around the reality of the work stoppage. Difficult to plan out your player options when you don’t know how long you FA might be frozen out next offseason. Rock and a hard place.
Artie! Swoop in and sign Gallen. We’re taking a chance on every reclamation project in baseball. Gallen has demonstrated more sustained success than anybody in the rotation. Get Gallen and Vegas moves us to number 2 in the West. You will recoup that money in the Wildcard.
Dream on buddy. Gallen’s not near enough for that.
The Angels have a chance to pick very early in the draft even though the dumdum will pick a 12th best prospect from Miami A&M or something.
Angels draft strategy has always been so confusing to me. It is like they have no faith that they can develop anyone ever.
Arturo decimated scouting and development.
The Angels cannot pick in the top 10 since they are a large market team and picked in the top 10 last season. They are pretty much relegated to pick 12 next year because there are 2 other teams, Rockies and Nationals, that are in the same boat but with worse records.
“ get gallen” reminds me of the movie get carter.
Or my wife when she’s nagging me about what to get at the grocery store.
Here’s a crazy idea, but hear me out. One year $15 mill. with two team option years for $20 mill each. If he pitches well, you get three years for $55 mill. and lose a draft pick. If he stinks, that draft pick might sting, but the cost would be just $15 mill.
There’s no way in hell that Gallen signs that contract
He’ll get more than 15M. I’m guessing 20M a year for 3 years, with opt outs.
It’s only players that sign one year deals where if they’re good they leave and if they’re bad they stay on a bunch of player options.
if he gets 3 years 60m, i do not think he is getting opt outs.
He would only do that as a player option. Kinda like a Pivetta deal for the Pads.
1st year, cheap, $5 mill prove it deal. But, have a player option for year 2, if not exercised, a $10 mil buyout or something, making that 1st year a $15 mil season. If he has a great year, he can go back on the market as a 31 year old, still plenty of time to get a 5 year deal.
Padres would be a great fit. Pitcher’s park, work with Niebla. Its worked great for Martinez, King, Lugo, Wacha, got them all nice follow up contracts.
Wonder if a team like the A’s would take a flier. If Gallen pitches well maybe he’s what they need to legitimately contend. The White Sox are another team that could use Gallen and maybe flip him mid-season
the As would be better off with Frambler who can at least look like an ACE. Gallen is a mid rotation guy. Honestly he feels like Severino- and they already have severino and he is not moving the needle.
I do not hate it, but if i were the As i would sign both and lock up a good rotation for the cheap years of kurtz, butler, wilson ect.
A’s won’t want to give up a draft pick to sign any free agent period. They decline QO and any team that signs them must give up a draft pick.
Or just the answer to ;
How much milk do we need Boris ?
Gallen is a Boras client. This is a major gaffe by the Superagent. I woukd fire him like Montgomery did. He spent too much time on the Suarez, Bichette and Tucker deals to notice Zac Gallen’s status being tied to a compensatory draft pick.
Boras doesn’t rep Tucker.
You are correct sir! Excel sports management to be precise.
Nor Bichette, but his point may stand of miscalculation on Gallen off bad year & QO while several other clients did well…..Cease/Alonso/Bregman/Bellinger/Ranger Suarez, etc
Both things can be true. Gallen also hasn’t had his first TJS almost rite of passage these days, so don’t overlook clubs not noticing/wanting to pay tens of millions for rehab.
Am I wrong, but does the draft pick loss come if the contract is over 50m?
I’m pretty sure you’re wrong. They could sign him for the league minimum and still lose a draft pick, it has nothing to do with how much money he’s being paid
@ Johndavius – The only way a team avoids paying the draft pick compensation is if a QO player signs after the amateur draft in July.
The 50M limit you are thinking of refers to compensation for revenue sharing teams. The limit determines when the revenue sharing team that lost the player will pick (either after Competitive Balance A or B rounds).
Whoever signs Gallen loses the draft pick because he was offered (and turned down) the Qualifying Offer by Arizona.
He’ll get 3 for 68 from the Cubs with an opt out after the 2nd year. He won’t get more than that bc the pick.
Bad timing for his contract year but I think he rebounds, he’s a great pitcher.
As a Dbacks fan, I’m torn on this one. I would welcome Gallen’s return on a 2/$40M contract with a player option after year one provided he pitches 180ish major league average innings. Alas, I dont think 2/$40M gets the job done and free agents dont come with guarantees. The Dbacks could use another SP, but i think Gallen may benefit from a new environment and pitching coach.
180 is a lot of innings!
He threw 192 in a not great ‘25.
And averages 190+ over 162 game season for his career. I think hes worth taking a shot on bounce back
Really dumb not taking that QO. A built in pillow for a guy heading in the wrong direction. No one is giving him anywhere near that money. He’d be fortunate to get over $22 over two years. I bet his hometown Phillies would love to have him, but not anywhere near that price.
Why would you want to remove the opt out only if he’s injured or ineffective?
It’s not just the QO, that’s limiting his market. Ranger Suarez, Dylan Cease, Edwin Diaz, were all pitchers with a QO that have signed with another team. Position guys like Tucker, and Bichette also weren’t limited by the QO.
Gallen was very good 2 years ago, about average 1 year ago, and not very good last season. He’s clearly a bounce back candidate. But given the downward trend over the last couple of seasons, I’d be hesitant to forfeit the pick on the gamble that he will bounce back. He’d be a lock to return to AZ if they were a bigger spending team.
You have to figure though that each season there are only a handful of teams that wouldn’t be scared off by a QO, and this season there were simply better players involved that received one. This happens every season, I wonder if the player’s union will fight to change the process.
I doubt the union will fight against the QO. It does make some FAs less attractive to clubs. But guys still get signed. Of the 13 guys that received one this offseason, with 4 accepting and 9 rejecting, only Gallen remains.
So it didn’t really hurt 12 of the 13, unless you count Michael King where it limited his market somewhat. But even then he beat the QO amount for each of 3 years. It would not be a good idea IMO. to try to change the rule to protect against a bad decision. Gallen should have accepted. His decision to reject the QO is on him, not a flaw in the system.
Oops, only Framber and Gallen remain, with 11 of the 13 signed, or re-signed.
As an Os fan id prefer Framber but Gallen isn’t a terrible fallback option. The draft pick sucks but at least he likely wants flexibility to get back to free agency without the QO attached so he will sign short. He has averaged 190+innings with an era of under 4. Thats a pretty good backup plan despite the draft pick. Maybe 3/70 with opt out after each season?
The O’s pick would actually be a 3rd rounder the 82nd overall pick which is their 3rd highest pick. The Orioles 2nd highest is going to the rays already for Shane Baz.
I have no idea why the Yankees wouldn’t offer him a deal with opt outs. They need the pitching
Gil, Rodon, Schlittler, Fried, Cole, Warren and Weathers.
7 guys.
Agree. Gallen COULD be the best of that bunch. Or the 6th best.
There’s absolutely no way he’s better than Fried. I’d take Rodon, Cole, and Schlittler over him too.
I think with the Os hes the #3 guy and with the Yanks he is #4. Not ready to say Schlittler is better yet. With Os hes ahead of Baz and Efflin. Now that I think about it, the Os have a decent rotation forming if they add Framber or Gallen. They got guys like Kremer (170+ innings/4.19 era last season) fighting for the 5th spot. With Framber or Gallen this might be best Orioles rotation since the 90’s
Everyone is hoping for Framber sized results in a Gallens sized hat.
The Tigers could use a starter, but they would need to stay put for at least two years due to 3 potential walks at year end. It may be that the $13 million difference in Skubal’s arb hearing is tying their hands. They also don’t have a TV contract. They can afford the loss of a draft pick, and are not rebuilding. The question is how much is left of the budget.
Gallen was pretty good in the second half last year – could be a one season bargain.
30P
“Gallen was pretty good in the second half last year ”
Not really
1st 4.22 xFIP, 22.2 K%
2nd 3.97 xFIP, 20.5 K%
He was a bit better in the second, because he lowered his BB’s. But the decline in K rate is worrisome
K%
2024 25.1
2023 26
2022 26.9
His velocity is steady (dunno about spin) so it looks more like a single-season aberration than anything until we have more data. I think he’s gonna be a very solid mid-rotation option for a lot of clubs.
His K% dropped as did his swinging strike rate
That’s a red flag
It’s not really a single-season aberration. It’s a 3 season decline. I know ERA+ is very general, but combine that with his bWAR:
2022, 158 ERA+, 5.3 bWAR
2022, 126 ERA+, 4.4 bWAR
2022, 115 ERA+, 2.6 bWAR
2022, 89 ERA+, 1.1 bWAR
Sure he could, and probably will, bounce back. If I were a GM or PBO, I’d sign him on the gamble that he will bounce back, but only if the QO weren’t attached. I’d gamble with the money, but not with the draft pick, in view of his declining numbers.
JM
YEAR, ERA-, FIP-, xFIP-
2022 62, 79, 83
2023 79, 77, 80
2024 88, 86, 89
2025 114, 113, 99
I’ll grant you two-year decline, but not 3
My thinking is 2023 wasn’t as good as 2022. 2024 wasn’t as good 2023, and 2025 wasn’t as good 2024. In my reasoning that’s 3 years where he’s declined from the previous season. Not every stat was worse than the previous year, but overall I think they were. But, surely he didn’t show improvement over the previous year for the past 3 seasons.
Other than flukey ERA, his 2023 was, slightly, better than 2022.
He was better in a lot more areas than a flukey ERA. ERA+, bWAR, WHIP, FIP, H/9 HR/9 were all better in 2022.
He did have a better fWAR, but part of that is attributable to more GS and IP. I’d admit that 2o23 was close to 2022, but not better. And looking at the past 4 seasons overall I think 2023 looks to mark the beginning of the decline.
He did not have a better FIP (relative to the league).
The thing that was better in his 2022 was his BABIP – .237 to .301.
His FIP in 2022 was 3.05.
His FIP in 2023 was 3.26.
He did have some better luck in 2022, but also allowed a lower % of balls in play. In 2023 he had worse numbers in a lot of ratio stats like XBH% HR %, EV, HardH % LD %, GB %, GB/FB %, and he was slightly better in K% in 2022,
IMO, which I know is different from yours, I still see him being close in 2023, but slightly worse to what he was in 2022. But certainly but not better. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
JM
“His FIP in 2022 was 3.05.
His FIP in 2023 was 3.26”
You can’t just look at unadjusted numbers. Well, you can, but it’s not good
League FIP
2022 3.97
2023 4.33
@JUJH
But why did his swing strike rate drop? I don’t know his spin rate (I don’t even know where to find raw spin rate info, BS is letting me down), but his velocity looks good. Is it sequencing? A quick glance shows his HR/FB% is up 4% over his 3-year average from 2022-2024. Average EV is in-line with the last three years, too (~90 MPH). A cursory glance under the hood shows he’s not getting hit any harder, which makes me think it’s not decline related.
There’s nothing wrong with looking at the unadjusted numbers. FIP measures a pitcher’s effectiveness based solely on outcomes they control: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. FIP removes the influence of defense and luck. Not sure why you think league FIP is necessary.
“Not sure why you think league FIP is necessary.”
Was .250 a good batting average?
:waits for an answer:
In 1930, the league batting average was .292
In 1968 it was .237
Do you see why that matters?
Same reason
You’re talking about where a guy ranks against the rest of the league, not individual performance. FIP measures individual performance. In fact it’s tailored to reduce outside influencing factors making it based more on individual factors than most pitching stats.
Assume IP and batters faced are roughly equal. And suppose the league average is 10 HRs allowed.in one year, and a guy gives up 10. Then, if in the next year, the league average is 12, and he gives up 11. He did better in terms of league average in the 2nd year, but not by individual performance. The year he gave up 10 was better than the year he gave up 11.
The year Gallen gave up fewer baserunners by either striking out more, walking fewer guys, not hitting guys, or allowing HRs in 2022. was better than 2023 when he gave up more by those same means.
This is an opportunity for the A’s, if they’ll bite. They saw last off season that it’s hard to get people to sign with them when they actually want to spend (not a huge surprise). But if they’re willing to go beyond other teams for a guy whose market hasn’t come together- this has Luis Severino written all over it. And they definitely need pitching.
I think his market has tanked and I’d like the Braves to sweep in and give him a higher AAV short term deal. Like 2-3 years max. Im dreaming but I think he’s worth it
Probably should have taken that QO
He’s probably going to have to take a pillow deal and won’t sign until March the way it’s going.
Whomever signs Gallen at least doesn’t have to worry about him purposely crossing up the team’s catcher after a grand slam.
🙂
Framber is definitely having a hard time getting a deal, guess his little temper tantrum cost him money.
I wouldn’t want that minecraft lookin jabroni doing that to my catcher lbh
Why in the world did he reject the QO?
Boras and greed
Unless the Angels go nuts and sign both Gallen and Valdez there’s no point in signing 1 or the other. They need so much that adding just 1 of them does nothing for the organization.
They are the perfect example of being stuck in purgatory.
The D’Backs should play what did you do last season with Gallen, not what have you’ve done years ago. I like the deal where you offer him a 2 year plus a mutual option for a 3rd year. Money wise give him the Qualifying offer salary the first year, plus incentives goals that he could possibly reach. I would not overpay for Gallen, not after last season, no one knows if this was an outlier of a season in 2025 or the start of his downfall as a solid ML pitcher.
What the heck are Braves doing? They need 1 addl starter.
The Angels/Moreno will only offer a 1 year deal so they are likely out.
The Angels haven’t signed a front-line starter since C.J. Wilson and that’s not likely to change. Arte is more likely to sign Giolito or Buehler than Gallen or Valdez
Gallen doesn’t miss miss bats w/ a subpar fb so he is always nibbling and looking for a friendly zone. Fastball will continue to decline. Home run numbers are a major red flag.
Dbacks fans should know better than anyone that Zac Gallen is on the decline and he makes no sense for the cash strapped roster going forward. The farm is barren and the $$ needed to be put toward the perpetually poor bullpen. Stick with the plan take the draft pick and move on from Gallen.
Zac Gallen has increasingly slid down that steep and slippery slope of diminishing effectiveness.
Teams have noticed.
He should have pulled a Grisham and taken that QO.
I think the Nationals could be a good fit and like this structure:
’26 – 15M
’27 – 15M
’28 – opt out w/ a 5M buyout, player option at 1 yr. / 20M
’29 – 20MM team option with a 5M buyout
That’s 3 yr. / 55M guaranteed with an opt out after ’27.
At most Nats pay 4 yr. / 70M for Gallen’s age 31-34 seasons.
Giving up a draft pick is part of signing the top two remaining free agent starting pitchers. I heard that on MLB Network. If teams wait to sign them during season, they will not have to give up a draft pick.
It seems Gallen would have been better suited betting on himself in taking the QO. Have a good season and at age 31 getting a 3 or perhaps 4 year deal at a respectable AAV. Or not and still pocket 22+m and not having the loss of a draft pick hanging over his head. As it is now it looks like owners are not buying what his agent is selling all on last seasons performance.
This may be silly and maybe you can’t do this or may have already been brought up in another comment.
Why doesn’t a team work with the dbacks to sign and trade gallen. Yes you would be missing out on the draft pick but you can add in a proven prospect instead maybe a little more to sweeten the deal. Again may be silly
Sign and trade is not allowed in MLB.
You cannot sign and trade in baseball. Once he signs w a team he cannot be traded before June 15th I believe.