The Twins and right-hander Joe Ryan have reached agreement on a new contract, therefore avoiding arbitration, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post. He’ll be guaranteed $6.2MM on the deal, in the form of a $6.1MM salary and then a $100K buyout on a $13MM mutual option for 2027.
Ryan was one of 18 players to not have an agreement in place when the filing deadline passed earlier this month. He is going into his second of three arbitration seasons, having made $3MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $5.8MM this year. The Twins filed just above that at $5.85MM, with Ryan himself at $6.35MM, a gap of $500K.
Most teams these days adopt a “file and trial” approach, which means they cut off negotiations of one-year deals after the filing deadline. This is to give them leverage in pre-deadline talks and also to prevent players from filing absurdly high numbers in an attempt to set out an aggressive bargaining stance. An arbiter can only pick the player’s or the team’s number, not a midpoint.
Even if a team does have a “file and trial” policy, exceptions are made for deals that are longer than one year, even if that extra year is an option. That gives the club a path to avoid a potentially contentious hearing while vaguely sticking to their policy. A deal with an option can’t be used as a comparison point in future arb hearings as well, which is a factor.
Arbitration hearings are generally viewed as a normal part of the business but occasional situations have occurred where the relationship between a player and a team have been damaged. Corbin Burnes said as much after his hearing with the Brewers three years ago. Ryan and the Twins have steered clear of that possibility by settling on a number in between their respective filing figures.
The mutual option is mostly just an accounting measure to move part of the payment to the end of the season via that buyout. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both parties. Even if the option is turned down, Ryan would still be under club control for 2027.
Ryan was in a number of trade rumors last summer as the Twins were undergoing a fire sale of sorts. They sold off most of their bullpen and Carlos Correa but held some other players, including Ryan. It was initially expected that they would look to move him this winter but have since pivoted to an attempt to return to contention in 2026.
Given his relatively modest salary and extra year of club control, he would still have a lot of trade value at the deadline if he is healthy and the Twins fall back in the standings, though the club is hoping to avoid that scenario and would prefer Ryan to be pitching meaningful games for the team in September and October.
Minnesota’s arbitration class is now settled. As for the rest of the league, there will now be no more than 15 hearings this year. As mentioned, 18 players didn’t have a deal as of the deadline. Since then, Cade Cavalli, Bryce Miller and now Ryan have reached new deals to avoid hearings.
Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Imagn Images
Tigers better hurry up and sign a mutual option deal with Skubal. Better to give him his money before he breaks Soto’s arbitration record.
Now that his price is set and there is another year of team control, he can be traded.
He was already under control for 2027 FWIW. The mutual option doesn’t add any control
Mutual option effectively doesn’t add control anyway because the player can just decline it if its advantageous for the club.
Yep. Recent examples were Williams Contreras and Duran has guys who rejected it but were under control
And they’re not trading him?
This is Colorado Rockies levels of excellence in the field of asset management.
Prediction: Joe Ryan is going to free agency and signing for top dollar —- this guys worth a lot more than Dylan cease on the open market.
Sell high now, you’re not close to being a playoff team!!
None of the other teams in the division are clearly better so they might as well dip their toes in the water
Then add to this middling roster already.
You got Joe Ryan for 6 million don’t waste it
That’s one heck of a deal!
Club a seal to make a deal!
Twins had 2yrs of control and lowering it to just 1? That’s worse for trying to trade him as only a rental who would want to go to high bidder in FA a year early. Something seems off from club perspective unless the mutual option was meant to show as 2028 that rarely get exercised on a mutual deal.
Thats not how arbitration clocks works.
If this type of mutual option is declined, he would just go back to being arbitration eligible. Still under team control through 2027
Yeah-that makes sense. Wasn’t posted at that point.
What a steal for Joe Ryan both the mutual and next years salary seem cheap for him.
Including the mutual option allows the $100k buyout to give him a little extra without raising the base arb for next year. Also now they don’t have to beat him up at the arbitration hearing
I’m sure teams will start calling the Twins about him. He’s very affordable, and he’s not a free agent for two more seasons. Twins can sit back and field the absolute best offer.
Being a Twins fan I much prefer he sticks around. Dreaming the additional money from the new minority owners allows them to add a bit more yet this offseason. Or maybe even swap out some of last years trade acquisitions for MLB talent
@Acoss1331
They didn’t move him at the trade deadline last year when they were cleaning house. They just signed him to a pretty darn good deal potentially covering his ARB years. The future isn’t cast in stone as they say but the FO would have to conclude that Ryan would (a) be outside their next contention window (b) be so expensive to sign as a FA that they couldn’t sign him (see Soto), (c) what teams are offering via trade isn’t a sufficient package (d) teams don’t usually don’t buy up multiple ARB years then move them. I think I got all the possible scenarios?
No need to do anything now and see how the team is doing by the time the trade deadline approaches.
@Acoss1331
Agreed. Given the state of their division they could be anywhere from first to last at the trade deadline.
@NoSaint, it’s a mutual option so nothing is bought out. Ryan might exercise his half if he has Tommy John, but otherwise he can beat that number if he keeps pitching like he can so he’ll decline it in any other situation. It’s almost certain that the team needs to pay him in arb next year or extend him, and things will get quite expensive in ’27 when he hits the open market.
@crise
“…it’s a mutual option so nothing is bought out.”
Yep. That’s why I included the word potentially when taking about his ARB years.
“They just signed him to a pretty darn good deal potentially covering his ARB years.”
Except that mutual options are never exercised, and the only way Ryan picks his up is if he has tommy John. otherwise he always declines and make a lot more than $13m if he plays anywhere near what he has the last two years. a mutual option is a gesture, not a real possibility. .
@crise
Not to be that guy, but a mutual option is a clause within a binding contract which satisfies the elements of contract law (offer, acceptance, and consideration). So not a gesture.
Again, I deliberately chose the word potentially to convey that the option is not guaranteed.
They are never exercised. There were a dozen last year that went by the wayside. Maybe every 5-10 years one gets agreed to. The potential is miniscule, mostly hypothetical, tiny.
Team will decline it if he has TJ.
“Also, now they don’t have to beat him up at the arbitration hearing.”
But both sides always say to reporters interviewing them that its not personal.😂
Remember Renee Good
Remember Jeff Pretti
The Twins almost never go to a hearing. as a rule they meet in the middle between the two filings to avoid the acrimony.
Mutual option means Arb next off season unless he just has a Meh 2026 Realistically not much to see here..
Or if he has a great one or if he has a terrible one. Lot o possibilities and most paths lead to arb. This is a way for the Twins to pay $100K next year instead of this one.
It’s just a way to add guaranteed money to a deal that isn’t paid as annual salary