Joe Musgrove Likely To Open Season On Injured List
A Padres club already thin on rotation depth delivered some rough news for fans Monday, as manager Craig Stammen revealed that righty Joe Musgrove is expected to open the season on the injured list (video link via 97.3 The Fan). Musgrove hasn’t thrown in more than a week. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that he didn’t recover as well as hoped following an exhibition start against Great Britain’s World Baseball Classic club.
It’s an ominous update, though it’s worth noting that Stammen didn’t suggest there had been a setback of any note. Musgrove hasn’t pitched since the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery that cost him the entirety of the 2025 campaign.
“He’s most likely going to start on the IL this year,” Stammen said Monday morning. “We’re getting to the point where he’s taken enough time off that it’d be hard to ramp him up to get him to be a viable starter that could throw five innings, 90 pitches. … This was part of the plan. We knew he was going to have to take some time off. We knew we were going to have get him ready for the entire season and not just Opening Day.”
Getting a healthy Musgrove back in the fold will be key to the Padres’ chances at contending this season. San Diego’s rotation depth has thinned over the past year. Yu Darvish is injured and contemplating retirement. Dylan Cease became a free agent. Righties Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert were traded to the Royals last summer. Prospects Braden Nett and Henry Baez were sent to the Athletics as part of the Mason Miller trade.
A healthy Musgrove is arguably the Padres’ best pitcher. From 2021-24, the now-33-year-old righty gave his hometown club 559 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, fanning a sharp 25.5% of opponents against a terrific 6.1% walk rate. Musgrove doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting a bit north of 93 mph with his heater, but he has good command and induces both chases off the plate and swinging strikes at league-average or slightly better rates.
It’s always been fair to wonder how many innings the Padres can reasonably expect from Musgrove after a layoff of nearly 18 months. The uncertainty surrounding his workload is one of many pressing questions about San Diego’s starting staff.
The Padres now enter the year with Michael King (also coming off an injury-truncated season) and Nick Pivetta locked into spots. Randy Vásquez and free-agent pickup Germán Márquez are both likely to be in the starting five as well, though Márquez has been shelled this spring coming off his own worrying return from UCL surgery in Colorado. In 6 2/3 innings, he’s allowed nine runs on 10 hits and four walks. Vásquez posted a solid 3.84 ERA in 133 2/3 innings last season but did so with the third-worst strikeout rate (13.7%) of any pitcher in MLB (min. 100 innings pitched). Metrics like SIERA (5.43) and xFIP (5.51) both pegged him bottom-two in that same subset.
Options to fill out the rotation behind King, Pivetta, Vásquez and Márquez are fairly suspect. Left-hander JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t seemed to have the confidence of the organization since coming over alongside Miller in that aforementioned trade. The Friars gave him only five starts last year despite the fact that he’d been a staple in the Athletics’ rotation. He spent the rest of his time with the organization in Triple-A last summer, and Sears has had very rough spring (8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings). Righty Matt Waldron is also on the 40-man roster but is behind in camp and could start on the IL himself. San Diego also signed Griffin Canning in free agency, but he’s a lock to open on the IL as he finishes rehabbing last year’s ruptured Achilles tendon.
In all likelihood, the Padres will need to break camp with at least one non-roster invitee in the rotation (barring further additions). Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are the most prominent names to have signed minor league deals this offseason. None of the three have pitched well this spring. Buehler is the only one who’s allowed fewer runs than innings pitched (four runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 6 2/3 frames).
Given the lackluster options and the nature of their early schedule, the Padres may not even fill Musgrove’s rotation spot at all. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres could open the season with a four-man rotation. Acee calls King, Pivetta and Vásquez locks, adding that Buehler has “likely” earned a spot, while Márquez’s spring struggles have at least created some doubt about his ability to handle the job.
San Diego has a pair of off-days within the first eight days of the season. That’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation twice in their first ten games. The Padres’ bullpen is among the deepest and most talented in the sport, too, so even when they finally do need a fifth starter, they could opt for a bullpen game while awaiting Musgrove to get into game shape. Someone like Márquez or Sears could open a bullpen game and perhaps navigate the opposing lineup once before turning over to the bullpen.
There’s no obvious answer in sight at the moment, which will make the final week-plus of camp worth watching with a careful eye. Each of Márquez, Sears, Buehler and Gonzales should have another appearance or two to try to stake a claim to the job, and ever-active president of baseball ops A.J. Preller could always try to creatively bring in another arm. One of the remaining free agents (e.g. Lucas Giolito, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin) probably wouldn’t have time to ramp up for the season, but there will be plenty of names hitting waivers or being granted their release from minor league deals over the final few days of camp.
Padres Notes: Sale, Rotation, Infield
The Padres are for sale and they seem to be making progress on that front. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the field of potential buyers has been narrowed from five to four and that the process could be complete by April. Both Acee and Jeff Passan of ESPN report that the sale price is expected to exceed $3 billion.
The Seidler family announced in November that they would be pursuing a sale of the franchise. At that time, it appeared some squabbling within the family could hamper those efforts but reporting in February indicated that some of the legal bumps had been smoothed out and that five prospective buyers had submitted bids. It appears that one of the groups has been removed from the bidding, though Acee doesn’t specify who’s out and who’s still in.
If the price does indeed go beyond $3 billion, that would easily set a new benchmark. The highest sale price for an MLB franchise to date is the $2.4 billion Steve Cohen plonked down to purchase the Mets in 2020.
Turning to the roster, it seems increasingly likely that Joe Musgrove will start the season on the injured list. The righty is looking to get back on the mound after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2025 season. It was reported three days ago that Musgrove was being brought along slowly in camp. Acee reported yesterday that Musgrove still hasn’t thrown again in the past few days. He pitched three innings in an exhibition game on March 4th but didn’t recover as hoped and has only thrown one bullpen session since then.
The Padres say they are being cautious, with manager Craig Stammen referring to it as a “holding pattern” and a “pause” for Musgrove as they make sure he’s ready to proceed to the next step. “Waiting to kind of get over that hump, feel a little bit better before we start doing anything out on the field,” Stammen said. “But still in a good spot, still something we knew was going to happen, had to prepare for. We’ve got his best interest in mind.”
Even if there’s nothing serious going on, Opening Day is two weeks away, so each day with no progress increases the chances of an IL stint. The Padres are set to open the season with Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Randy Vásquez in three rotation spots. Acee pegs Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler as the favorites for the final two spots, assuming Musgrove hits the IL. Márquez is already on the 40-man roster but Buehler doesn’t yet have a spot. He can opt out of his deal at the end of camp if he doesn’t have one.
Whatever the Friars do for Opening Day will be temporary. Musgrove will be back in the mix at some point. Matt Waldron is behind schedule due to hemorrhoid surgery but is ramping up now. He is expected to start the season on the IL but shouldn’t miss too much time. He is out of options so the Friars would have to find a spot for him on the active roster or bump him off the 40-man. Griffin Canning will also be looking to rejoin the rotation at some point, likely a few weeks later than Musgrove and Waldron.
On the infield, Sung Mun Song is trying to work through a nagging right oblique issue. He may open the season on the injured list, which could have opened a bench spot for someone like Will Wagner. Unfortunately, Acee relays that Wagner is dealing with an oblique strain of his own and has not done any baseball activity since the start of March. He will almost certainly join Song on the IL to start the year. That could increase the chances of someone like Ty France or Mason McCoy getting an Opening Day spot.
Like Buehler, France can opt out of his deal at the end of camp if he’s not added to the 40-man. The Friars opened a spot this week by outrighting Daison Acosta but would need one more if they select both Buehler and France. That won’t be hard. Yu Darvish and Bryan Hoeing are both expected to miss the 2026 season due to surgeries and neither has been moved to the 60-day IL yet.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Latest On Padres’ Rotation
The Padres entered camp with Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove penciled into the top three rotation spots. They felt reasonably confident that Randy Vásquez would claim the fourth starter role. They took a volume approach to the fifth starter job, signing a handful of veterans to cheap free agent deals.
Musgrove is working back from a 2024 Tommy John surgery that wiped out all of last season. King was limited to 15 starts last year by a nerve issue in his shoulder and a knee injury. While King is pitching without any restrictions this spring, the Padres are playing things more cautiously with Musgrove. The righty last pitched in a game on March 4, when he threw 60 pitches in an exhibition game against the British World Baseball Classic team.
Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Musgrove has thrown one bullpen session within the past week. The Padres are understandably bringing him along slowly and haven’t announced when he’ll make his next game appearance. Both Acee and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com suggest he may not be fully built up by Opening Day.
A brief season-opening injured list stint wouldn’t necessarily represent a setback. The Padres will need to keep an eye on Musgrove’s workload over the course of the season. They have two off days within the first eight days of the regular season, meaning they could theoretically get by with a four-man rotation if Musgrove had a minimal IL stint. The likelier outcome is that they’d turn to one of their depth starters to fill out a five-man starting staff.
That could open an opportunity for Walker Buehler, who is in camp as a non-roster invite. If there’s only one rotation spot available, that’s likelier to go to Germán Márquez. Márquez signed a big league contract and is guaranteed $1.75MM. He’s going to make the team, and the Padres don’t have a ton of roster flexibility in the bullpen to carry him as a long reliever.
Buehler can opt out at the end of Spring Training if the Padres don’t add him to the roster. Buehler has made two starts this spring. He has allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings with a solid 6:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Márquez has recorded five punchouts without a walk while allowing three runs across five frames. Marco Gonzales, in camp on a minor league deal, has given up five runs despite recording eight strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but has had a rough spring and has a minor league option remaining, so he’s probably ticketed for Triple-A El Paso regardless of Musgrove’s status.
How Will The Padres Round Out Their Rotation?
Barring injury, the Padres will open the season with an established top three in their rotation. Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove have the upside to be one of the best top halves in the National League.
Musgrove is coming back from Tommy John surgery, while King was limited to 74 1/3 innings last year (playoffs included) by a nerve issue in his shoulder and left knee inflammation. They’re free of any restrictions this spring. Musgrove will make his exhibition debut tomorrow against Great Britain in a World Baseball Classic tune-up. King has already started two games this spring.
The picture is a lot less clear from there. Yu Darvish will miss the entire season. Free agent pickup Griffin Canning has yet to pitch this spring as he works back from last June’s Achilles tear. He’s very likely starting the season on the injured list.
That’s also true of knuckleballer Matt Waldron, though it could be close to a minimal IL stay for the right-hander. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote yesterday that Waldron plans to throw off a mound this week and is hopeful of getting a start in before the end of Cactus League play. He won’t be built up enough to start the season on the active roster, however. Waldron is out of options, so the Padres will need to carve out an MLB spot for him once he’s ready or risk losing him via trade or waivers.
That all but ensures that Randy Vásquez will get a season-opening rotation spot. Manager Craig Stammen said at the beginning of camp that the righty had a leg up on a job. Vásquez is out options and needed to make the team in some capacity. He outperformed mediocre peripherals for most of last season but improved his strikeout rate to a league average level in September. He finished last season with a 3.86 ERA across 133 2/3 innings.
It probably leaves the Padres will one spot to fill. The front office has taken a volume approach to the back of the roster, adding a handful of veterans on cheap one-year deals or minor league contracts to see who sticks. They added enough options that it’s not out of the question they open with a six-man rotation.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla left open that possibility over the weekend, although he implied they preferred a five-man group (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Niebla said the team is preparing the starters on a usual five-day routine. If multiple depth arms pitch their way onto the roster, they could go to a six-man staff, but that requires dropping to a seven-man bullpen.
If there’s only one spot available, Germán Márquez enters camp as the favorite. The former Rockies righty signed a $1.75MM deal in mid-February. His spot on the MLB roster feels secure, which isn’t the case for non-roster invitees Walker Buehler or Marco Gonzales. Márquez could theoretically pitch in long relief if one of Buehler or Gonzales beats him for the fifth starter role. That scenario (or a six-man rotation) probably wouldn’t bode well for out-of-options reliever Ron Marinaccio’s bid to stick on the roster.
Lefty JP Sears is also in the rotation mix, though San Diego’s series of veteran additions means it’s likelier he’s headed back to Triple-A. Sears was hit hard in five MLB starts after being acquired from the A’s in the Mason Miller trade. He still has a minor league option remaining.
Sears also hasn’t an especially encouraging start to camp, giving up five runs on seven hits (including two homers) across 3 2/3 innings. Márquez allowed three runs on four hits over two innings in his exhibition debut over the weekend. Gonzales, who missed all of last season rehabbing flexor surgery, has given up five runs across 4 2/3 frames over two spring starts. Buehler hasn’t pitched in an official Spring Training game but took on the KBO’s NC Dinos in an outing on the back fields over the weekend, giving up two runs over three innings.
Padres Sign Germán Márquez
February 17th: According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Marquez gets a $1MM salary followed by a $750K buyout on the mutual option. Marquez will also have the chance to unlock an extra $3.25MM in performance bonuses.
February 16th: The Padres announced Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Germán Márquez to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. The L.A. Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $1.75MM. San Diego placed righty Jhony Brito, who underwent internal brace surgery last May, on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
The team was known to be looking for low-cost rotation pieces and a complementary bat, per comments from president of baseball operations A.J. Preller a few days ago. They achieved the latter by bringing in Nick Castellanos on a one-year deal upon his release from the Phillies. Now, they’ve addressed the rotation side through one-year-deals for Márquez and fellow right-hander Griffin Canning. Canning is coming off an Achilles injury and projects as a back-end starter once he is healthy enough to return. Márquez figures to serve as back-of-the-rotation depth as well.
The 30-year-old (31 later this month) is coming off a ten-year major-league run with the Rockies. After a brief debut in 2016, he settled in as one of the team’s most reliable starters from 2017-21. In that span, he totaled 793 2/3 innings over 135 starts and posted a 4.25 ERA, a 24.0% strikeout rate, and a 6.9% walk rate. Márquez excelled through a combination of control and strong groundball tendencies. He was worth 15.5 fWAR in those five years and continually posted groundball rates in the mid-40s and low-50s, including a career-high 51.6% in 180 innings in 2021.
His performance began to wane from 2022 onward. He still made 31 starts in 2022, but his strikeout rate fell below 20% for the first time since his 20 2/3-inning sample in 2016. His run prevention slipped as well, with Márquez posting a below-average 4.95 ERA and elevated peripheral stats. He then underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, costing him the rest of that year and the first few months of 2024. His return in July 2024 only lasted one start, and he spent the rest of the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation, although his UCL was reportedly fine.
In 2025, Márquez pitched 126 1/3 innings over 26 starts but was clearly working with diminished stuff. His four-seamer was down to 94.8 MPH after averaging 95.6 MPH in his most recent healthy season in 2022. His sinker, which used over 20% of the time, also slipped from 95.1 MPH to 94.3 MPH. Statcast graded his fastballs in just the first percentile by run value, while his knuckle curve, formerly his best pitch, also earned career-worst grades. The strikeouts dried up even further, with Márquez’s 14.0% strikeout rate ranking third-worst among starters with at least 100 innings. The Rockies decided to move on as Márquez reached free agency.
Perhaps a change of scenery will help Márquez recover some of his strikeout and groundball tendencies as he moves further from injury. He’ll get that chance with the Padres, who now have a decent amount of rotation depth. The team saw Dylan Cease depart for the Blue Jays but re-signed Michael King on a three-year deal in December. Yu Darvish will miss 2026 while recovering from an internal brace procedure, and he is reportedly contemplating retirement. Joe Musgrove is returning from Tommy John surgery and will be guaranteed a spot if healthy. That leaves King, Nick Pivetta, and Musgrove in the top three spots, with some combination of Márquez, Canning (when healthy), Randy Vásquez, and JP Sears taking the last two spots.
Each of King, Musgrove, Márquez and Canning comes with injury risk, though the Padres always seemed likelier to stockpile depth than bring a big-name starter at this stage in the offseason. Zac Gallen was the last impact starter in free agency before re-signing with the Diamondbacks. Either way, his $18.7MM luxury tax number might have been too much given the team’s reported payroll constraints. Low-cost signings like Canning and Márquez seem easier to accommodate, barring a potential buyout agreement for Darvish.
RosterResource has the team at a $264.7MM luxury tax payroll for 2026, putting them in the second tier of penalization. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2025 and would count as second-time payors in 2026. Thus, any money guaranteed to Canning and Márquez would come with an additional 42% surcharge.
Alden González of ESPN first reported the Padres were signing Márquez to a one-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the mutual option. The Associated Press reported the $1.75MM guarantee. Photo courtesy of Kelley Cox, Imagn Images
Rockies Notes: Front Office, Marquez, Halvorsen
The Rockies are concluding one of the worst seasons in MLB history. They’ll come up just shy of 120 losses and are the only team since 1900 to be outscored by more than 400 runs. It led the historically loyal organization to fire manager Bud Black after a 7-33 start to the season. They’ve gone 36-84 under interim skipper Warren Schaeffer.
Walker Monfort, son of Rox’s owner Dick Monfort, was promoted to executive vice president in June. The team announced at the time that chief operating officer Greg Feasel would step aside at the end of the season. The team did not make any in-season changes to the baseball operations staff, yet that could happen in the next few weeks.
Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported on Thursday that the Rox are “likely” to make changes to the front office. That may extend to the top of baseball operations. Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post wrote a couple weeks back that “it appears likely that (GM Bill Schmidt) will be fired or reassigned” at season’s end.
Schmidt has led baseball operations on a full-time basis since the 2021-22 offseason. He inherited a below-average roster from previous GM Jeff Bridich, but the results have gotten progressively worse. They lost 94 games during his first season and have lost 100+ games in each of the past three years — the first such seasons in franchise history.
No team has a worse record than Colorado’s 231-415 mark over the last four years. Schmidt had been in the organization for more than two decades before ascending to the GM role. He has been in the charge of the team’s amateur drafts since 2000. The Rox had brief runs of success during that time — highlighted by the National League pennant in 2007 — but only have five postseason appearances in a franchise history that dates back to 1993.
Whether they make a change atop baseball operations or not, the Rockies will need to decide whether to stick with Schaeffer as their permanent manager. They’re also likely to see the departure of one of their longest-tenured players. Germán Márquez made what’ll probably be his final start as a Rockie this evening. The impending free agent gave up six runs over 4 1/3 innings and took the loss. He finishes the season with a grisly 6.70 earned run average over 26 starts.
Márquez had much better seasons earlier in his career. He had a pair of sub-4.00 ERA seasons at Coors Field in 2018 and ’20 while securing an All-Star nod in 2021. Márquez has spent nine-plus seasons in Denver but is unlikely to return in free agency. Saunders wrote this evening that Colorado doesn’t intend to re-sign him.
The righty reflected on the run after making his final home start last weekend (link via Thomas Harding of MLB.com). “It was very, very emotional. It may have been the last game that I throw as a Rockie at Coors Field. I don’t know,” he acknowledged. “I was thinking about that the whole game. This is my home. I’ve been here for my whole career. I feel happy. I feel free here. But it’s baseball, and I need to see what’s going to happen.”
Márquez might well have been traded at this summer’s deadline had he not been placed on the injured list with biceps tendinitis in late July. The Rockies were more willing sellers than they’d been in previous seasons. They traded Ryan McMahon, Jake Bird and Tyler Kinley while at least hearing teams out on controllable relievers Seth Halvorsen and Victor Vodnik. They ended up holding both late-game arms.
Vodnik finished the season as the closer. Halvorsen went down immediately after the deadline with a mild flexor strain. That ended his season, but the fireballing righty has progressed to throwing off a mound as he prepares for the offseason (via the MLB.com injury tracker). He’s an unlikely offseason trade candidate coming off a season-ending elbow injury when he’s still under club control for five seasons. If he’s healthy, he’d have a good chance at beginning next year as the closer.
Rockies Move Antonio Senzatela To Bullpen
The Rockies are moving righty Antonio Senzatela to the bullpen, general manager Bill Schmidt tells reporters (including Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post). Colorado will activate Germán Márquez from the 15-day injured list to start Friday against the Cubs. To make room, Senzatela loses his rotation spot for the final month of a dismal season.
Senzatela has taken the ball 24 times. He has averaged fewer than five innings per start and been tattooed for a 7.15 earned run average. Senzatela has completed six innings just three times and has only two quality starts. His ERA is nearly a full run higher than Jack Kochanowicz’s 6.19 mark (entering play tonight), the second worst for a pitcher with 100+ innings. His 11.3% strikeout rate is also worst among that group of 106 hurlers. Senzatela hasn’t pitched well at any point of games, but he’s been particularly poor out of the gate. His first inning ERA is a staggering 11.51, with opponents hitting .443 against him.
Schmidt was blunt in his summary of Senzatela’s season. “The bottom line is that he was not helping the club. He was hurting the club, especially early in the game,” the GM said. “Same thing with (Austin Gomber). They were putting the team in a hole early, and they were putting our young relievers in a hole, too.”
Colorado released Gomber last week. The southpaw was an impending free agent whom the Rox weren’t going to re-sign coming off a 7.49 ERA showing. Releasing Senzatela would’ve required eating a lot of dead money. He’s signed for another season at $12MM. There’s also a $14MM club option (no buyout) for 2027 that stands virtually no chance of being picked up. Colorado could consider pulling the plug over the offseason but evidently want to first see if he can find some success in relief. Pitching coach Darryl Scott tells Saunders that the Rox aren’t ruling out the possibility of Senzatela returning to the rotation to begin the ’26 season.
Márquez returns after a month-long absence due to biceps tendinitis. He’ll hopefully take five turns through the rotation to close the year. Márquez is an impending free agent who’ll be a rebound target for other clubs this offseason. He has struggled to a 5.67 ERA across 20 starts but has a 95 MPH fastball and still misses bats with his knuckle-curve.
Colorado called up McCade Brown to replace Gomber. He’s their third rookie in the rotation, joining Chase Dollander and Tanner Gordon. Márquez and Kyle Freeland round out the group. None of Colorado’s starters have had sustained success this year. Gordon projects as a depth arm, while Brown might end up in relief. There’s little reason for the Rox to continue trotting Senzatela out as a starter at the expense of reps for their younger arms, though.
Rockies Place Germán Márquez On Injured List
July 23: The Rockies announced Wednesday that they have indeed placed Márquez on the 15-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis. The move is retroactive to July 21 but will still keep him on the injured list beyond the July 31 trade deadline. Injured players can still be traded, but the IL placement obviously impacts his value and reduces the chance of a deal coming together.
July 22: Per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, the MRI showed biceps inflammation but no structural damage. Thomas Harding of MLB.com says that Tanner Gordon is with the club and will likely start tomorrow, with Márquez likely bound for the IL.
July 21: Germán Márquez went for an MRI on his shoulder this afternoon, relays Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The Rockies have not placed the veteran right-hander on the injured list to this point. They’re currently calling the issue shoulder inflammation but are awaiting more specifics from the imaging.
Márquez only managed three innings in yesterday’s start against the Twins. He told reporters (including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding) that the issue stems from his final start before the All-Star Break. He’d pitched well in that appearance — six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts in Cincinnati — but apparently worked through some discomfort. He’d hoped that the issue would resolve itself with over a week of rest because of the break. That didn’t happen, and Márquez acknowledged yesterday that he and the training staff are considering skipping his next start.
It’s an inopportune time for an injury. Márquez is an impending free agent. He’s very likely to be traded if he’s healthy. A pitcher with a 5.67 earned run average across 20 starts seemingly wouldn’t be of much interest to contenders. Márquez has an even worse road ERA (5.95) than he does at Coors Field (5.31).
Still, some teams could view him as a change-of-scenery candidate in a market that’ll be starved for starting pitching. Márquez was an above-average starter before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. He’s averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball and getting whiffs on his mid-80s knuckle-curve. Márquez also seemed to be rounding into form over the past six weeks.
The 30-year-old posted a 2.97 ERA over six starts in June (though he gave up six unearned runs on June 18). Márquez was bombed by the White Sox in his first appearance of July before turning in arguably his best start of the year during the aforementioned appearance against the Reds. Sunday’s start was terrible — three runs in as many innings with four hits and walks apiece — but it’s easy to forgive that based on the injury. While he wouldn’t be anyone’s top target, teams seeking a back-end starter could view him as more of an intriguing upside play than the likes of Andrew Heaney, Aaron Civale or Erick Fedde.
If Márquez requires an injured list stint, he’ll be out beyond next Thursday’s trade deadline. Even if he simply skips one turn through the rotation, he wouldn’t be lined up to pitch again by July 31. They could push him back a few days while running him out on July 29 or 30 against the Guardians in an attempt to showcase his health, but that’s dependent on the imaging results. Márquez is playing on a $10MM salary and would receive a $1MM assignment bonus if he’s traded. He’d also unlock $2MM in bonuses at each of 140, 150 and 160 innings pitched, but those are lofty targets considering he’s currently at 98 1/3 frames and now facing an injury.
Latest On Rockies’ Expected Deadline Approach
The Rockies dropped to 21-71 with today’s loss in Boston, putting them on a 37-win pace for the season. That’d have them four wins shy of last year’s White Sox, the worst team in modern history. The Rockies are obviously going to be deadline sellers, but the extent of that sale is complicated by the organization’s track record of holding onto players that any other team would have traded.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Rox intend to be more willing to listen on veteran players than they have been at prior deadlines. He suggests they’ll seriously entertain interest in the likes of third baseman Ryan McMahon, reliever Jake Bird, and starter Germán Márquez. That broadly aligns with a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post last week. Heyman reported that the Rockies are open to offers on McMahon, specifically, after they pulled him off the trade market early in 2024.
However, that increased willingness to deal veterans doesn’t mean the Rockies are completely open for business. Rosenthal writes that the team remains unlikely to trade young players whom they view as core pieces. He lists shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, center fielder Brenton Doyle, and rookie righty Chase Dollander in that group. Rosenthal more surprisingly adds relievers Seth Halvorsen and Zach Agnos, plus starter Ryan Feltner, as players who may fall in the latter category.
McMahon, Márquez and Bird are Colorado’s three most obvious trade chips. They all featured prominently on MLBTR’s initial list of the top 40 trade candidates last week. McMahon is a plus defensive third baseman with power and strikeout concerns. He had an abysmal April, raked in May, and has cooled back off since the beginning of June. He’s hitting just .210/.310/.373 on the season and has been a well below-average hitter (.207/.305/.350) over the past calendar year.
There’ll nevertheless be interest in McMahon, particularly given the scarcity of infield talent that may be available. The Yankees need to acquire a third baseman and have reportedly already checked in. The Cubs and Tigers are speculative possibilities. McMahon is playing on a $12MM salary in his age-30 season and will make $16MM annually between 2026-27.
Márquez is an impending free agent who is making $10MM. He was an above-average starter earlier in his career but hasn’t been as sharp since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. He’s sitting on a 5.84 ERA with a subpar 15.3% strikeout rate over 18 starts. The 30-year-old righty is coming off his best month of the season, though, working to a 2.97 mark while striking out 21% of opponents in June. His fastball still sits around 95 MPH, so teams could view him as an upside play outside of Coors Field. He’s unlikely to be a qualifying offer candidate, so there’s little reason not to trade him.
Bird, 29, had quietly been one of the league’s best relievers until he was blown up by the Red Sox on Tuesday. That outing jumped his season ERA by nearly a full run, up from 2.79 to 3.70. Bird has fanned more than 27% of opposing hitters and has generally done well to keep runs off the board. He looked to be a fairly nondescript middle reliever entering the season. He’s under club control for three seasons beyond this one, but this is a breakout year for a reliever approaching his 30th birthday. The Rockies would be wise to cash him in this summer while his trade value is at its peak.
The Rockies have a few other veteran players, though they’d have little to no trade value. They’ll presumably hope to find a lottery ticket prospect for the likes of Thairo Estrada, Austin Gomber and Tyler Kinley. It’s not surprising they’re reluctant to move Tovar or Doyle, both of whom are struggling through down years but looked like potential cornerstones a season ago. Dollander has been hit hard in his debut campaign and was recently optioned back to Triple-A, but he’s a recent top 10 pick and the organization’s best hope of developing a front-line starter.
Feltner is a back-of-the-rotation starter who has missed most of this season rehabbing a back issue. He just returned from the injured list last week and has been limited to six starts. The Rox could get a notable return for Halvorsen, a fireballer who has gotten a look in the ninth inning. He’s only 25 and controllable for five more seasons. A team in Colorado’s position should arguably be willing to trade any reliever, but there’s more of a case for holding Haloversen than there would be with Bird. It’s tougher to see the logic in including Agnos as a potential building block. He’s a rookie reliever with a 5.19 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his first 26 career innings. Agnos, a former 10th-round pick, has good but not elite velocity and has never been a highly-regarded prospect despite excellent minor league numbers.
Rockies Notes: Marquez, Relief Pitching, Condon
Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt spoke with reporters (including the Denver Post’s Kyle Newman and Just Baseball Media’s Patrick Lyons) at the “Rockies Fest” fan event this weekend, addressing such topics as the health of several notable Colorado players. German Marquez was one of those players, as Schmidt said the right-hander is recovered from the stress reaction in his right elbow that prematurely ended Marquez’s 2024 season.
Injuries have limited Marquez to five starts and just 24 innings for the Rox over the last two seasons. The bulk of that injury layoff came in the form of Tommy John rehab, after Marquez underwent the procedure in May 2023. He made it back to the big leagues by July of last season, but Marquez’s return lasted just a single game, and four innings in Colorado’s 8-5 win over the Mets on July 14. Elbow inflammation soon sent Marquez to the 15-day IL after that one outing, and the stress reaction was discovered shortly thereafter.
Marquez has spent all nine of his Major League seasons with the Rockies, posting a 4.40 ERA over 996 innings from 2016-22. The Rockies acknowledged Marquez’s durability and success at handling Coors Field with a five-year, $43MM contract extension in April 2019, with a $16MM club option for the 2024 campaign. The option never ended up coming into play, as Marquez inked a new two-year, $20MM deal with Colorado in September 2023 that covered the 2024-25 seasons, and gave both sides a little more flexibility as Marquez recovered from his TJ surgery.
With the first season of that deal unfortunately going down as a wash, Marquez now faces extra pressure as an impending free agent. Marquez’s first priority is just getting healthy and getting back onto a mound, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rockies make a move to lock him up on another extension if he pitches well in the early part of the season. Despite his lengthy track record in the majors, Marquez doesn’t turn 30 years old until next month.
Any kind of rotation stability is sorely needed in Denver, both due to the infamous thin-air conditions and because of how hard the Rox have been hit by pitching injuries over the last few years. Marquez is penciled into a rotation that also includes Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela (who also missed most of 2023-24 due to Tommy John rehab). Between this group and some Triple-A arms nearing their big league debuts, Schmidt is hopeful the Rockies have amassed enough depth to withstand any further injuries or any struggles from the regular starters.
Some more pitching could be on the way in the form of relievers, as Schmidt indicated that the Rockies could yet add to their bullpen before Spring Training. Diego Castillo, Jimmy Herget, Tommy Doyle, and Jake Woodford are among the pitchers with MLB experience who have been brought into the organization on minor league deals or waiver claims, and it remains to be seen if the Rockies’ pitching explorations will lead to any guaranteed contracts for bullpen help.
Infielders Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer are the only players the Rox have signed to guaranteed deals, both brought into the fold on one-year contracts. It isn’t necessarily surprising that a team coming off 204 losses in the last two seasons isn’t aggressively spending, but the Rockies are continuing their unusual path of not entirely rebuilding, but also clearly focusing on younger talent.
Charlie Condon is one of those key building blocks for the future, and Schmidt said the team hadn’t yet decided where Charlie Condon will play in the minor leagues next season. The third overall pick of the 2024 draft began his pro career in inauspicious fashion by hitting only .180/.248/.270 over 109 plate appearances for high-A Spokane, but Schmidt said Condon was trying to play through a bruised thumb that “he kind of didn’t tell us” about.
This injury could well explain those struggles, even though it isn’t unusual for even star prospects to face some growing pains in their first taste of professional baseball. Condon was also moving right into his pro career on the heels of 60 games with Georgia during the 2024 NCAA season, with Condon crushing college pitching to the tune of a .433/.556/1.009 slash line and 37 homers over 304 PA. In recently-released top-100 lists, MLB Pipeline rated Condon as the 29th-best prospect in the sport, and Baseball America ranked him 42nd.