Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.
In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.
The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.
In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .
Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.
Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.
Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.
Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.
Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.
It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.
Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.
It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.
It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Diamondbacks To Sign Sam LeCure To Minors Pact
The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with 31-year-old righty Sam LeCure on a minor league deal, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reports on Twitter. LeCure, a client of BHSC, had spent his entire career in the Reds organization.
Cincinnati had leaned heavily on LeCure over the 2010 through 2014 campaigns, running him out for 300 2/3 innings in that span. He was a solid option, on the whole, putting up a 3.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 versus 3.5 BB/9.
Last year, though, LeCure lost his roster spot and opened the year in Triple-A. Over sixty innings there, he worked to a sub-par 5.25 earned run average. LeCure was able to put up twenty frames of 3.15 ERA ball upon moving back onto the major league roster late in the season. But he also continued a trend of falling strikeout totals and fastball velocity.
Diamondbacks Designate Matt Stites For Assignment
The D-backs announced on Wednesday that they have designated right-hander Matt Stites for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for fellow right-hander Cody Hall, who was acquired from the Giants earlier today in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.
Stites, 25, was acquired alongside Joe Thatcher and a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft pick in the 2013 trade that sent right-hander Ian Kennedy to the division-rival Padres. Stites posted solid minor league numbers in 2014, recording a 2.89 ERA with a 23-to-9 K/BB ratio in 28 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. However, after those results earned him a trip to the big leagues, he struggled in the Majors. This past season, he saw those difficulties carry over into his minor league work as well, as his 3.86 ERA at the Triple-A level was accompanied by an unsightly 14 walks and 14 strikeouts.
All told, the former 17th-round pick has posted a 7.13 ERA in 41 2/3 innings with the Major League team between the 2014 and 2015 seasons. While those results aren’t encouraging, Stites has averaged a hefty 95.4 mph on his heater over the course of his time in the Majors and does have very strong numbers at the Double-A level. As a prospect, he drew praise for his 94-98 mph heater and sharp slider. Prior to the 2014 campaign, Baseball America ranked him ninth among D-backs farmhands and wrote that he possessed the best control.
Diamondbacks To Acquire Cody Hall
The Diamondbacks have agreed to a deal to acquire righty Cody Hall from the Giants, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Hall was designated for assignment recently.
Hall, 28, reached the majors last year with San Francisco, though he only worked 8 1/3 innings. He entered the year as a top-twenty organization prospect, per Baseball America, after averaging double-digit strikeout rates in his minor league career. Hall spent most of 2015 at Triple-A — his first attempt at that level — and posted a 3.46 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.
Arizona could allow Hall an opportunity to compete for one of its final pen slots, though perhaps the likelier scenario is that he ends up back in the minors as a depth piece. Hall was only added to the 40-man last winter, so he has options remaining.
Diamondbacks Sign Wesley Wright
The Diamondbacks signed left-handed reliever Wesley Wright to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, according to a tweet from the team’s Triple-A affiliate. The Reynolds Sports client, presumably, will compete for a bullpen job in Spring Training with the D-backs.
Wright, 31 later this month, totaled just 7 1/3 innings in the Majors last season between the Orioles and Angels, as a shoulder strain kept him on the disabled list for more than three months. While 2015 was somewhat of a lost season for the lefty, Wright had put together a solid track record across the four prior seasons when he worked to a combined 3.25 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 166 1/3 innings between the Astros and Cubs.
Wright yielded a huge number of fly-balls in last season’s small sample of work, but he’s historically been more of a ground-ball pitcher, as evidenced by the 52.7 percent ground-ball rate that he recorded during that strong run from 2011-14. Wright doesn’t throw particularly hard, but his 90 mph fastball has enough life considering his handedness, and he’s held left-handed batters to a .237/.313/.334 batting line across parts of eight Major League seasons. Of course, on the flip-side of that equation, he’s yielded a .263/.353/.476 batting line to right-handed batters, so the D-backs would likely need to be cognizant of playing matchups in most situations were Wright to make the club.
The Diamondbacks have a number of right-handed arms that will compete for spots in the bullpen, but there’s a lack of left-handed options for manager Chip Hale in the bullpen. Andrew Chafin enjoyed a strong season in 2015 due in large part to his impressive ground-ball rate, but Matt Reynolds is the only other lefty relief option with notable Major League experience, and he struggled quite a bit in his return from 2014 Tommy John surgery. Elsewhere on the 40-man roster, Keith Hessler struggled in his big league debut last year, and Will Locante needs more minor league time before being a realistic option for the MLB club.
Free Agent Notes: Rodney, Fowler, Davis
Here are the latest free agent rumors:
- The Diamondbacks have not been in contact with free agent reliever Fernando Rodney, writes Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com. A previous report had tied Rodney to the DBacks, Padres, Blue Jays, and Cubs. Since then, we’ve also learned the Padres are out. Presumably, Toronto’s interest ceased when they acquired Drew Storen from the Nationals. After a late-season renaissance with the Cubs, Rodney should still garner plenty of interest as teams nail down the final components of their bullpen. Meanwhile, Arizona may opt to rely on their wealth of internal options headlined by Brad Ziegler and Daniel Hudson.
- Dexter Fowler‘s market has been slow to develop, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. The center fielder is coming off his best season to date, although his OBP declined below his career average. Among contenders, Levine figures that only the Rangers, Mariners, Indians, White Sox, and Cubs are a fit (he also lists the Nationals, but the Ben Revere trade likely nullifies that pick). Both Chicago clubs could benefit from installing Fowler in center field. A reunion with the Cubs would require a trade of right fielder Jorge Soler – probably for high quality pitching – and it would allow Jason Heyward to return to his natural position of right field. Levine also figures that White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton is better suited for a corner outfield role.
- The Orioles have not made any progress in talks with free agent Chris Davis, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore made a seven-year, $150MM offer earlier in the offseason and has seen no reason to submit a higher bid. While agent Scott Boras is selling Davis as an outfield option, Encina views him purely as a first baseman. To this point, no other serious suitors have emerged for Davis. Encina also cites reports that the Orioles are in on pitcher Yovani Gallardo, but those talks may depend on Davis.
NL West Notes: Guerrero, Rodney, Diamondbacks
The Dodgers face a tricky situation with 3B/OF Alex Guerrero, Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times writes. Guerrero’s contract has two years and $10MM remaining, and it doesn’t allow the Dodgers to option him to the minors without his permission. That means the Dodgers are effectively stuck with him on their 25-man roster, even though he isn’t an especially good defender at any position and tailed off badly at the plate after a hot start last season. Guerrero also isn’t much of a trade asset due to his contract (which, in addition to the provision about optioning him, also allows him to become a free agent next winter if he’s dealt this season). For a big-market team like the Dodgers, $10MM sure isn’t a huge hindrance, but Guerrero’s presence on the roster currently seems like it could be a minor headache for them. Here’s more from the NL West.
- A number of teams have been in touch with free agent reliever Fernando Rodney‘s representation, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. The Padres, who previously had been connected to Rodney, do not currently seem to be most likely to sign him. (A previous report had indicated that the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Cubs were involved in his market.) Rodney, of course, struggled in Seattle for most of the 2015 season, but seemed to find new life after an August trade to the Cubs. In Chicago, the 38-year-old struck out 15 batters and walked four in 12 innings.
- Diamondbacks superstar Paul Goldschmidt is excited about the team’s moves this offseason, writes MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. Goldschmidt says that he new the team would spend if it found an opportunity it liked, but that he was still taken aback when he heard the Snakes had landed Zack Greinke. “I was definitely surprised,” he says. “All of a sudden my phone started blowing up with people texting and calling me. It was exciting.”
Rosenthal On Nats, Chen, Maeda, Davis, Orioles
In his latest notes column for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks strongly considered a swap that would’ve sent center fielder Ender Inciarte to the Nationals in exchange for lefty Gio Gonzalez. While such a scenario is no longer a possibility — Inciarte went to the Braves along with two other highly regarded pieces in exchange for Shelby Miller, and Gonzalez makes little sense for a rebuilding Atlanta club — Rosenthal notes that the Nats could still explore similar possibilities. Moving Gonzalez for a center field option and then signing Wei-Yin Chen, to whom the Nats have previously been linked, could give the team the left-handed-hitting center field option it desires without significantly weakening the rotation. It’s also worth noting that Washington has been linked to the Rockies in the past, who have a left-handed hitting center field option in the form of Charlie Blackmon, though GM Mike Rizzo figures to explore many avenues if that route is indeed on the table.
A few more notes from Rosenthal’s latest column…
- Rizzo has repeatedly stated that he’s not interested in trading Jonathan Papelbon or Drew Storen unless he receives a nice return, but sources tell Rosenthal that the Nationals are indeed trying to move both of the right-handers. The Nats would likely need additional bullpen help were they to move either pitcher, though as Rosenthal points out, right-hander Tyler Clippard is still available in free agency, and a reunion between the two sides could make some sense. The Dodgers “figure to be” one club that will check in with the Nationals regarding Storen, Rosenthal writes.
- The specific irregularities in Kenta Maeda‘s elbow remain unknown, but the Dodgers‘ $25MM guarantee with $10MM worth of annual incentives is a reflection of the team’s acknowledgment that he may require surgery over the deal. According to Rosenthal, the bonuses at the back end of the deal are “largely unattainable,” so even though the contract can max out at $105MM over eight years, it’s unlikely that Maeda will receive such a sum. The elbow issue was known to every team that requested Maeda’s medical information, as it turned up in an MRI taken at the urge of his representatives with the Wasserman Media Group. Per Rosenthal, Maeda is presently asymptomatic and pain-free when he pitches.
- The Orioles have been debating moving on from Chris Davis for about a month, but the team remains engaged with the slugging first baseman due to owner Peter Angelos’ affinity for Davis. If Baltimore does ultimately move on to alternatives, Yoenis Cespedes is a more likely target for the team than Justin Upton, as Cespedes wouldn’t require the O’s to part with a draft pick.
Quick Hits: Buehrle, Rodney, Nationals, Rangers, White Sox, Uggla
Free agent left-hander Mark Buehrle is not planning on playing in 2016 at this time, though the veteran isn’t yet prepared to announce his retirement from baseball, either, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). The soon-to-be 37-year-old’s future has been a debated topic in the past, as some reports indicated that he was planning to retire before Buehrle himself told ESPN Chicago’s Doug Padilla back in October that he’d yet to make a decision on the matter. Another report indicated that if Buehrle were to pitch in 2016, it’d most likely happen if St. Louis showed interest in the Missouri native. Buehrle’s 2015 season wasn’t as strong as his 2014 season, but he nonetheless recorded a solid 3.81 ERA across 198 2/3 innings. That final innings tally left him just four outs shy of recording his remarkable 15th consecutive season of 200+ innings.
A few more notes from around the league…
- Cotillo also tweets that right-hander Fernando Rodney is in “active talks” with multiple clubs, noting that the Padres, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Cubs are all in the mix at this time. San Diego, Chicago and Toronto have previously been linked to Rodney, though Arizona would seem to represent a fairly new entrant into his market. Rodney had a dreadful season with the Mariners in 2015 but turned it around following a trade to the Cubs, yielding just one earned run in 12 innings with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio down the stretch (Rodney did, however, also plunk three batters in his brief Cubs tenure).
- We’ve heard about the Nationals‘ interest in Gerardo Parra before, and James Wagner of the Washington Post writes that it’s still alive. GM Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director when the club signed Parra, and the Nats also tried to acquire him from the Brewers this summer, Wagner reminds. Wagner notes that Parra’s so-so OBP and declining defensive ratings make him a questionable fit in Washington, but the team’s goal remains adding some outfield depth to protect against injuries to Jayson Werth and uncertainty surrounding the talented but raw Michael A. Taylor. Wagner opines that from a purely speculative standpoint, Shane Victorino makes some sense for the Nationals as a player who can cover the outfield corners and play center in a pinch if need be.
- Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that Rangers fans shouldn’t expect to see Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Yovani Gallardo in a Rangers uniform next season, as the team doesn’t have the payroll capacity to add any of the three. A trade for Marcell Ozuna is also unlikely, per Wilson, though the Rangers do still hope to add some rotation depth before the offseason is up. GM Jon Daniels tells Wilson that there are still some affordable names on the open market that have piqued the Rangers’ interest. Wilson also notes that Colby Lewis‘ physical — the final step before his reported one-year, $6MM contract becomes official — is slated for next Monday.
- The White Sox aren’t in a rush to add a big-ticket outfielder to the mix, writes MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. The Sox “seem content to wait and ensure that any free-agent deal would fit their need and parameters,” he continues, writing that it’s likely that Upton and Cespedes will eventually be offered more years and dollars than the ChiSox care to place on the table.
- Dan Uggla has spoken to three or four teams that are eyeing infield depth, Cotillo tweets. Uggla is set to turn 36 this March and is coming off a season in which he batted just .183/.298/.300 in 141 plate appearances with the Nationals, so any contract to which he agrees figures to be of the minor league variety.
- Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic spoke to executives and scouts from each league to ask which NL West division rival has the better pitching staff heading into the 2016 season: the D-backs or the Giants. While the officials to whom Buchanan spoke seemed to agree that, in a vacuum, the D-backs made more impactful acquisitions this offseason (referring to Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller in comparison to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija), when factoring in the cost of said acquisitions, there’s an argument to be made for the Giants’ side of the equation. Buchanan also polled officials on which club’s top three starters were more impressive, adding lefties Patrick Corbin and Madison Bumgarner to the mix, which generated mixed responses.
Stewart: D’Backs Won’t Sacrifice Another Draft Pick
After giving up the 13th overall pick in this summer’s draft to sign Zack Greinke, the Diamondbacks are not interested in parting with another choice, GM Dave Stewart tells MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. That would appear to take Arizona out of the running for any of the remaining free agents who would require draft picks to sign since they rejected qualifying offers earlier at the outset of the offseason.
The D’Backs’ top remaining selection is a Competitive Balance Round A choice that currently rates as the 37th overall choice, though that number will change as QO-bound free agents pick their destinations. “We’re not going to give up the pick,” Stewart said. “It’s just tough after we’ve already given up our first pick. To give up our top two picks, that would be difficult for us to do.”
That stance would appear to put a damper on a report earlier today suggesting that the club was still in talks with infielder Howie Kendrick, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Stewart said there was appeal to adding a veteran infielder, “only just for the security of it,” but noted that the team still feels good about what it well get out of its younger position players. Notably, though he made clear that the team has no inclination to punt a pick, he did not rule out other avenues to acquiring an established player from that mold.
While it is not surprising to hear that the club values the draft pick, it is frankly somewhat surprising to hear Stewart rule out its sacrifice so conclusively. After all, that choice is far less valuable than the one already parted with. And while any other free agent would likely pale in comparison to Greinke in terms of expectations, Arizona has already sought to push up its competitiveness timetable by signing him and giving up a big haul for fellow righty Shelby Miller. There’s always a place to draw a line, of course, but this does seem like a somewhat curious place to make a firm stand.
It’s worth noting, in that regard, that this is the same team that arguably did not maximize its draft and international spending capacity last year. Arizona also traded its first-round choices from 2014 (Touki Toussaint) and 2015 (Dansby Swanson) in recent months. Of course, the organization has gone against the grain in numerous ways, and seen many of its decisions called into question, yet certainly looks to be in a stronger overall position than many would have anticipated this time last year.
Stewart went on to add that the Snakes are still looking for relievers, though he said there are some intriguing young in-house options that could compete for a spot. The Diamondbacks have been connected to a variety of names in trade scenarios, but it appears that the current asking prices are too high. “I can tell you it will be difficult to do it by a trade,” Stewart said. “So we’re going to look through the free-agent market and see what else is left. I think that’s the way it’s going to have to happen if we’re going to do it at all.”