Rosenthal On Jeter, Jenkins, Keppinger

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports posted a new column last night.

  • Rosenthal wonders if the eventual emergence of Yankees shortstop prospects Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez will prompt the team to ask Derek Jeter to change positions in the future.  Neither player ranked among the Yankees' top 30 prospects in the Baseball America 2009 Handbook, however.  Jeter's current contract runs through 2010.
  • Rosenthal says Boston's talks for catchers Miguel Montero and Jarrod Saltalamacchia "remain stalled because of those clubs' respective asking prices."
  • Rosenthal believes the Phillies are unlikely to trade Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs.
  • The Reds are considering trading infielder Jeff Keppinger, and Rosenthal wonders if the Astros would be a fit.  He also speculates on Juan Uribe for Houston. John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer talked about the Keppinger possibility on Friday.

Josh Byrnes Q&A

Recently MLB Trade Rumors had the privilege of asking a few questions of Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes.  Byrnes has been at the helm since October of '05, making it to the NLCS in '07.

MLB Trade Rumors: Many players signed for less money or fewer years than expected this winter.  Do you anticipate an even more drastic decline in free agent spending around the game for the non-superstar players in the 2009-10 offseason?

Josh Byrnes: In spite of the economic conditions, the industry spent over $1 billion on free agents this off-season and 17 of 30 clubs increased their payrolls. Given the abnormally small rate of inflation (and a good class of free agents), it felt like a very tight squeeze. Certain players probably signed for a lot less than what they have been offered in the months/years preceding their final decision. In a tight economic setting, the stars seem to do better than the good (but not irreplaceable) players.

MLBTR: You were criticized by some for not offering arbitration to Adam Dunn in December, but it turned out to be the right move.  How were you able to predict where the market was headed?

Byrnes: Obviously, we considered that particular decision very carefully. It was difficult – especially because the premise of the August trade was based upon draft pick compensation. As we moved toward December 1st, we weighed the risk and reward of offering Dunn arbitration, and we decided that the risk was too great.

MLBTR: Do you have the payroll flexibility to make another Dunn-like acquisition this summer, if the need arises?

Byrnes: We’ll see. Ownership has been very supportive of any responsible expenditure that can help us compete. These are challenging economic times, and we will have to monitor our competitive state and our revenues.

 MLBTR: You've talked about the danger of having players with their meters running regarding playing time incentives, and expressed a preference for health-based incentives if any.  Do you think health-based incentives carry a similar risk, with a player perhaps unwilling to disclose an injury or go on the DL because it would affect his paycheck?

Byrnes: The non-disclosure of an injury could happen (I suppose), but that is pretty self-defeating for the player. Our fundamental rejection of bonuses centers on two main points: (1) we want to know what our team costs, and (2) we do not want provisions in contracts to be a daily source of angst in our clubhouse.

MLBTR: What is your stance on player opt-outs in free agent contracts?  Would you ever allow that?

Byrnes: As a rule of thumb, I would be hesitant to put an opt-out into a contract. We do have a Mutual Option in our Jon Garland contract. To the extent we are able to negotiate Club Options (the reverse of the opt-out concept), we usually provide extra guaranteed money in the form of a buyout to potentially compensate the player for our right to make a choice.

MLBTR: Is there any concern about the team's strikeout total last year, or do you view strikeouts as pretty much the same as other outs?

Byrnes: To some extent, strikeouts are like other outs. But on a young team with many RHH, it can be indicative of our needed growth. Ideally, we want hitters who are tough outs and who are dangerous. If enough walks and homers accompany the strikeouts, the tradeoff can work. Our young hitters have faced some elite pitching in our division over the last two seasons. Now, we need to start applying those lessons.

MLBTR: How do you decide how many innings you'll allow a guy like Max Scherzer to throw, since he's never topped 109 in a season?  If he's healthy and the team is in a pennant race would you be comfortable taking him to 200 innings?

Byrnes: Including the Arizona Fall League and instructional league, Scherzer threw around 140 innings last year. We will try to moderate his innings throughout the season and shoot for a range closer to 170 innings.

MLBTR: Have the D'Backs built something similar to the Diamondview database you worked with in Cleveland?

Byrnes: We have not. The Indians actually developed their product after my departure (we had just started to integrate IT into Baseball Ops as I was leaving). With the volume of information at our disposal and the necessary speed of business, we are constantly trying to ramp up our technical tools. The progression from concept to implementation is not an easy one.

Odds & Ends: Holliday, Roberts, D’Backs

A few links for this afternoon…

  • Peter Gammons discusses Matt Holliday's future after the 2009 season (Insider account required). Gammons suggests that Holliday's power to center and right is best suited for Yankee Stadium, and also notes that the Red Sox and Angels may be looking for replacements for Jason Bay and Vladimir Guerrero.
  • Dave Roberts isn't 100% sure, but he's leaning towards retirement.
  • The Diamondbacks are one of 22 teams named in a grievance by the Players Association. The grievance is surrounding charitable donations as clauses in player contracts.

Odds And Ends: Gonzalez, Hill, Koskie

Links for Saturday…

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Diamondbacks.  Here's what we wrote about the team on October 2nd.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Jon Garland, Felipe Lopez, Tom Gordon, Scott Schoeneweis, Bobby Korecky, Tony Clark (re-signed).  Midseason: Jon Rauch

Subtractions: Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Randy Johnson, Chris Burke, Jeff Salazar, Edgar Gonzalez.  Midseason: Micah Owings, Emilio Bonifacio

Offensively, Lopez replacing Hudson is the main change.  As GM Josh Byrnes told Nick Piecoro, "On a given day we should have one through eight, all good hitters."  The D'Backs don't have any hitter who projects at less than a .333 OBP or less than a .400 SLG (according to CHONE).  Their lineup projects at 4.71 runs per game, better than last year's 4.44.  4.71 would've ranked sixth in the NL last year.  Plus, Drew and Upton certainly have the potential to crush their projections.

With last year's strong run prevention, the D'Backs would be in line for 87 wins.  But can they match the 706 runs they allowed in '08?

Last year's rotation posted a 3.95 ERA in 978.6 innings.  They've subtracted a full season of fine work from Johnson and a half season of bad work from Owings.  Garland and Max Scherzer will be the main replacements.  CHONE has the pair combining for a 4.60 ERA in 270 innings, most of which comes from Garland at a 5.01 ERA.  Still, that beats the 4.74 mark from Johnson and Owings combined last year.  In a perfect world it would've been Johnson over Garland, but unfortunately at the time of the Johnson negotiations the D'Backs couldn't afford him.  It would've been nice to see them stretch the budget and offer $4-5MM to the Big Unit.

The Chris Snyder extension was a smart move, and it left catcher Miguel Montero as a valuable trade chip.  Swapping him for an MLB-ready starter would be big.

As far as the bullpen goes, I think a decent year from Rauch can make up for the loss of Cruz.  Defensively, the D'Backs ranked 11th in the NL last year according to The Fielding Bible II.  Lopez is a downgrade on Hudson even if Hudson had an off year in '08.  But maybe Drew can make up the difference at short.

Since run prevention looks like a wash, 87 wins seems like a reasonable projection for the '09 D'Backs.  Drew, Upton, and Scherzer are all capable of beating forecasts and carrying this team to a 90 win season.

Bottom line: The D'Backs lost many free agents this winter, and replacing Johnson with Garland was unfortunate.  Arizona should still battle for a division title if their 3-4-5 starters are decent.

Red Sox Still Looking For A Catcher

According to ESPN's Peter Gammons:

The Red Sox say the backup/Tim Wakefield catching job has been won by George Kottaras, but they are still looking for another catcher. The Diamondbacks, who would like another starting pitcher, continue to insist on Michael Bowden for Miguel Montero, and Boston GM Theo Epstein still won't trade Bowden.

Montero, 25, hit .255/.330/.435 last year in 207 plate appearances as Chris Snyder's backup.  He threw out 18.2% of attempted base-stealers.  Meanwhile Bowden, 22, tossed 144.3 innings in the minors last year with a 2.62 ERA.  Baseball America called him "a safe bet with a good chance to become a No.3 starter."

D’Backs Unlikely To Lock Up Drew

According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the Diamondbacks aren't "holding out a whole lot of hope of locking up" shortstop Stephen Drew to an extension any time soon, especially in the wake of agent Scott Boras' comments against pre-free agency deals.

"We'll see what happens," Drew said. "Right now, it's been fun playing here and when the time comes I guess everybody will sit down and see what's best."

Drew, 26, has a career line of .274/.328/.452 over his first three MLB seasons.

Odds & Ends: Suzuki, Zambrano, Nationals

Links for Tuesday…

Rosenthal’s Latest: Pedro, Wood, Pudge, Gonzalez

Ken Rosenthal weighs in on a few of the recent hot topics…

  • Like we heard earlier, Rosenthal says the Dodgers would only be willing to add Pedro Martinez to the mix if he is willing to “pitch for pay” and accept an incentive-laden contract. Rosenthal adds that Martinez’ agents reached out to the Dodgers and that the Dodgers contacted Pedro’s personal trainer but deny that any serious conservations have occurred.
  • Rosenthal feels that the Dodgers have a better shot of landing a starter if they trade Delwyn Young who is out of minor league options.
  • Rosenthal says Brandon Wood has given up hope that the Angels will trade Chone Figgins to clear a spot for Wood on the roster. Wood does have a minor league option remaining. Rosenthal says the Angels would need to find another leadoff hitter if they let Figgins walk at the end of the season as a free agent.
  • Rosenthal adds that the Marlins are “warming to the idea” of signing Ivan Rodriguez, but that playing time remains an issue as Pudge wants to play five days a week.
  • According to Rosenthal, Luis Gonzalez is willing to resign with the D-Backs, but it may only happen if Eric Byrnes continues to have problems with his hamstring.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.

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