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Free Agent Profile: Paul Maholm

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April seems like ages ago.  Braves lefty Paul Maholm was unscored upon in his first three starts that month to kick off the season, at which point I noted that a 3.90 ERA moving forward would put him at 3.50 overall, and position him for a three-year deal even after declining a qualifying offer.  Maholm, however, posted a 5.16 ERA over his next 22 starts, suppressing optimism for his first big free agent payday.

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Strengths/Pros

At times, Maholm has shown the ability to rack up around 190 innings with an ERA under 4.00.  That has real value, and aside from handedness, Maholm's profile isn't drastically different from that of Scott Feldman.  And if certain teams are focused on southpaw starters this winter, Maholm is right near the top of the free agent list.  

One of Maholm's greatest attributes is his ability to generate groundballs.  His 51.8% groundball rate this year ranks sixth among free agent starters with at least 100 innings.  On a related note, the lefty has been respectable at keeping the ball in the yard, with a 0.81 HR/9 since 2008 and nothing higher than this year's 0.99 in that span.

Maholm has been very good against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .219/.287/.317 line in his career.  His peripherals against them are sparkling: 8.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9, and a 3.21 xFIP.

A qualifying offer from the Braves is not expected, so Maholm should not come with draft pick compensation attached.

Weaknesses/Cons

Maholm is a pitch-to-contact type, with a career strikeout rate of 5.7 per nine innings.  He's allowed ten hits or more per nine innings in numerous seasons, including this one.  SIERA suggests an ERA in the low to mid-4.00s is a reasonable expectation.  Perhaps due to the vagaries of batting average on balls in play, Maholm has three seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and two with an ERA over 5.00, out of eight total.  Putting a good defense behind him is key.

Upside is limited with Maholm.  If all goes well, you'll get 190 innings with an ERA a touch under 4.00, but there is some downside on the other end.  Maholm's ERA is up to 4.44 at the moment, but perhaps some of his July struggles can be attributed to trying to pitch through a seemingly minor injury.

Can Maholm be considered an innings guy?  He'll finish with around 152 this year, and had an abbreviated contract year in 2011 as well with 162 1/3.  Other times, Maholm has reached the 180-200 range expected of a starter signed to eat innings, including 189 in 2012.  This year, a left wrist injury suffered on a swing cost him a month, and he also missed one start in September with elbow soreness.  The elbow MRI showed no structural damage, but agent Bo McKinnis will still have to explain that to interested parties this winter.  Back in '11, Maholm's season ended on August 17th due to a shoulder strain, limiting free agent interest.  This year's injuries have been more minor, plus Maholm has the opportunity to finish the regular season on a healthy note on Wednesday against the Brewers.

Personal

Maholm lives with his wife Jessica and son Wyatt in Hattiesburg, Mississippi during the offseason, according to the Braves media guide, and he grew up a Braves fan.  Paul was in the prestigious PGA Golf Management Program at Mississippi State University, the only major that requires a certain golf handicap.

Market

Perhaps Maholm will first explore the idea of remaining with the Braves, who also have Tim Hudson eligible for free agency.  The Braves have the pitchers to fill out a young rotation without either veteran, but with uncertainty around Brandon Beachy's elbow, it would be wise to sign at least one veteran hurler.  Given Hudson's tenure with the Braves, it seems likely they would address his situation first.  The two contracts Maholm has signed have been with Midwest teams, the Pirates and Cubs,  so perhaps he'll turn to the NL Central again if the Braves don't work out.

Expected Contract

After the 2011 season, I considered Maholm the ninth-best free agent starter, and expected him to land a multiyear deal despite his season ending early due to a shoulder strain.  His first free agent experience lasted until January 10th, however, and he received just a one-year, $4.75MM guarantee from the Cubs, with a club option.  A club option is never ideal for the player, and the Braves picked up Maholm's for 2013 after he finished one of his finest seasons.  Even though the 2011 shoulder injury didn't linger for Maholm beyond that season, finishing on the DL really hurts a pitcher's market, and he won't have to deal with that this time.  

While I once thought Maholm was a good bet for three guaranteed years, that seems unlikely now.  As I've mentioned before, the bar for a two-year contract for a starting pitcher is pretty low, with recent examples like Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Carlos Villanueva, and Kevin Correia.  MLBTR's Steve Adams has pointed out the importance of timing, as the two-year offers tend to dry up come January.  Last offseason, Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Brett Myers were left standing without a multiyear chair, as Maholm was two winters ago.  Though the top end of the free agent market for starters is weak this offseason, there are plenty of hurlers in Maholm's class, such as Feldman, Jason Vargas, Roberto Hernandez, Phil Hughes, Chris Capuano, Jason Hammel, and Saunders.

While Maholm could reach as high as two years and $14MM, ultimately I think the southpaw will sign a one-year, $7MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Rangers, A’s, Jeter, Nationals, Phillies

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In an attempt to compensate for the looming loss of Nelson Cruz to his 50-game suspension, the Rangers tried to swing a big trade for Justin Upton at the July trade deadline, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The Braves refused a package of Matt Garza, Joe Nathan and David Murphy. If those are the only three players the Rangers offered, it's not a surprise that the Braves passed — Garza and Murphy are eligible for free agency after the season, while Upton is a good young player who is under contract through 2015. Eventually, of course, the Rangers acquired Alex Rios in August. Here are more notes from around the Majors.

  • The Athletics clinched their second AL West title in a row with an 11-7 win over the Twins on Sunday, and GM Billy Beane says the team's depth has been the key to their smooth season, John Hickey of InsideBayArea.com reports. "We knew going in this was the deepest roster we’d ever had here," says Beane. "We needed that depth, and it paid for itself." As Hickey points out, the Athletics hardly missed a beat all season, even though Brett Anderson, Josh Reddick, John Jaso and Derek Norris all missed significant time. Here are more notes from around the Majors. A quietly brilliant season from Josh Donaldson surely helped, but the A's got solid offensive and defensive performances from most of their hitters, and other than Anderson, their starting rotation mostly stayed healthy.
  • After taking in the ceremony for Mariano Rivera and the applause for Andy Pettitte on Sunday, it dawned on injured Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter that he had played his final game with his two retiring teammates, Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger reports. "I’m going to miss them a lot," says Jeter. "These guys have been brothers to me. We’ve been through quite a bit together. Pretty much everything you can experience on a field. In my whole professional career, I’ve been playing with at least one of them." The three had their rookie seasons together with the 1995 Yankees, and Jeter and Pettitte also played on many of the same minor-league teams, including Class A Greensboro in 1992 and and Triple-A Columbus in 1994 and 1995.
  • Pitcher Dan Haren thinks the Nationals should aim to keep their team together, writes MLB.com's Andrew Simon. "Last year they had a great year and this year we’ve shown a lot of fight here the last few months. I think as close as things could stay to the guys in this room, I think the better," Haren says. He also appears to support bench coach Randy Knorr for the Nationals' managerial position, which will be open when Davey Johnson retires after the season. Haren himself is a free agent, of course, and he seems aware that he might not be part of the 2014 Nationals, even if they ultimately go with a similar roster: "I know there’ll be some subtle changes, me probably being one of them."
  • Now that the Phillies have settled on Ryne Sandberg as their manager, they'll now turn their attention to their coaching staff, MLB.com's Todd Zolecki reports. With a new manager, it's typical to have at least some change in the rest of the coaching staff. Zolecki mentions that one potential change might be re-hiring former manager Larry Bowa in some capacity.
  • A "winter of discontent" is on the way for Phillies fans, writes Bob Ford of the Inquirer. After a recent streak of successful seasons, Ford says, a team elsewhere might "get a standing ovation and then be allowed to attempt its rebuilding with patient if not fervent support. That might be the case here as well, if only the team would get on with the rebuilding." Instead, the Phils will head into the offseason expecting to keep aging veterans Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee. They might also go into 2014 with Carlos Ruiz still at catcher, and perhaps also with Roy Halladay in the rotation. Ford compares the Phillies to a rock band who are still touring long past the point where they've lost relevance, "dyeing their hair and wearing hearing aids."

NL East Notes: Pierre, Polanco, Braves, Nationals

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Marlins outfielder Juan Pierre just passed Joe DiMaggio for the 175th slot on MLB's all-time hit list with his 2,215th base knock, a milestone brought to my attention at least by the Sun Sentinel's Juan C. Rodriguez. Though DiMaggio missed three prime years due to military service, it remains an impressive accomplishment for the speedy Pierre, who will become a free agent at the end of the year. Elsewhere in the National League East …

  • Fellow Marlins veteran Placido Polanco wouldn't commit one way or another when asked by Rodriguez if he would return for a 17th Major League season next year. The thrd baseman, who resides in Miami, did seem to hint that this could be his final season with his answer: "It depends," Polanco said. "It has to be close to home. I have to see what's out there, but the kids, the wife and family is probably ready for me to be home now."
  • Only two players — Tim Hudson and Brian McCann — on the current Braves roster were with the club when it last won a division title, writes David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (subscription required). Neither veteran is guaranteed to be back with Atlanta in 2014, however, as each is set to hit free agency. McCann declined to talk about his future, instead commenting that he's focused on making a deep playoff run and adding some banners to Turner Field.
  • The Nationals have opted to sign free agents like Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren to one-year deals to fill out their rotation in each of the past two offseasons, but James Wagner of the Washington Post writes that the development of Taylor Jordan and Tanner Roark might not make that a necessity. The development of that pair, plus the continued maturation of arms like A.J. Cole and Sammy Solis, gives the Nats the option to stick with internal options, sign a free agent or make a trade. GM Mike Rizzo wouldn't rule out any of the three.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

NL East Notes: Sandberg, Bowa, McCann, Tejada

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It seems to be a fait accompli that Ryne Sandberg will have his interim tag removed and be named full-time manager of the Phillies sometime in the next week or so, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.  Whether the announcement happens in a matter of days, after the season finale against the Braves on September 29th, or shortly thereafter, the smart money is on Sandberg taking the full-time gig.  Here's more on the Phillies and the latest out of the NL East..

  • More from Salisbury, who wonders if Larry Bowa could be joining Sandberg on his staff for next season.  Bowa was in the Phillies’ dugout before Wednesday’s game and the idea of adding the 67-year-old has been discussed within the organization.
  • Braves catcher Brian McCann may not be back in Atlanta next season, but his focus is on the team's current run as they near the postseason, writes MLB.com's Mark Bowman.  Many have speculated that McCann will find a big payday elsewhere this winter.
  • Mets skipper Terry Collins wants to see Ruben Tejada take control of the shortstop position in 2014.  "My message is real simple: this job is his," Collins said of next year's starting shortstop role. "But he's got to show everybody that he wants it desperately."  Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com recently wrote that the Mets could look out-of-house for their next shortstop and may even consider trading Tejada.
  • Peter Gammons of MLB.com (on Twitter) notes that Ed Lucas, who belted his fourth homer of the year for the Marlins last night, was a Winter Meetings job seeker last season.  The Dartmouth grad spent nine seasons in the minor leagues before getting called up by Miami in late May. 

NL East Notes: Harvey, Collins, Johnson, Valencia

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The plan of action could change later this offseason, but for now, Matt Harvey has decided to try and avoid undergoing Tommy John surgery, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The young Mets ace will try to rehab his right elbow for a month or two and then throw to see if he bounces back well from the partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. Here's more on the Mets and the rest of the NL East…

  • Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog isn't on board with the Mets bringing Terry Collins back for next season and beyond.  The Mets have stopped short of officially saying that Collins will manage the team in 2014, but all indications are that he will be back in the dugout.
  • Look for Elliot Johnson to be back with the Braves in a super-utility role next season, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com within his latest column.  Atlanta is quite pleased with their August waiver claim on the 29-year-old as he has done a capable job of filling in for second baseman Dan Uggla.
  • More from Rosenthal's piece, as he writes that Danny Valencia’s strong play with the Orioles could make him an appealing option for the Marlins, who will be looking for help at third base this winter.  It doesn't hurt that Valencia has strong ties to the area as he was born in Miami, grew up in nearby Boca Raton, and attended the University of Miami.
  • The Phillies are a prime example of how fortunes can change quickly in the game of baseball, writes MLB.com's Paul Hagen.  The Phillies opted to keep their aging core in tact this season despite being bogged down by injuries.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Rosenthal On Gardenhire, McCann, Saltalamacchia

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports brings us yet another edition of Full Count, let's dive in and take a look at the highlights..

  • Of all of the pending managerial situations to watch in the majors, the Twins might be the most interesting club to keep an eye on.  Ron Gardenhire is trying to avoid his third-straight 90-loss season and he's extremely unlikely to accept a one-year deal and serve as a lame duck in 2014.  By the same token, the Twins might not be willing to give him another multi-year pact.  For what it's worth, GM Terry Ryan has taken full responsibility for the team's poor roster.
  • Catchers generally don't do well in free agency, but two prominent ones are about to hit the open market with prominent teams bidding for their services: the Braves' Brian McCann and the Red Sox's Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  The Phillies and Rangers figures to be in the mix as they could lose free agent backstops of their own.  The White Sox badly need to upgrade behind the plate, though it's not clear how much they'll spend.  The Yankees could be involved too.  They want to stay under the $189MM luxury tax threshold, but they could use one of the two to finally give themselves an adequate replacement for Russell Martin.
  • It's not a huge surprise to see the Marlins contemplating a front office shakeup in September, but regardless of what they do with Baseball Operations President Larry Beinfest, Miami has bigger fish to fry.  The Marlins have to decide if they will part with Giancarlo Stanton as he's still unlikely to sign an extension.  Rosenthal also wonders why they have been bystanders when it comes to going after Cuban free agents that have come and gone like Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alexander Guerrero.  One has to imagine that a notable Cuban import would be a sizable draw in Miami.
  • Even though all of the focus is on the playoff chase, there's still a matter of who will get the final protected pick in next year's draft.  The Phillies, if they win too much, can wind up losers.  The difference is critical for Ruben Amaro & Co. as they have an older club and they'll want to sign free agents, but, of course, they don't want to lose a first rounder.  You can keep track of the other September race with MLBTR's Reverse Standings.

International Notes: Tanaka, Rangers

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Masahiro Tanaka's name continues to generate buzz with each game he pitches in Nippon Professional Baseball. The 24-year-old currently boasts a 20-0 record with a 1.24 ERA, 7.7 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 181 innings for the Rakuten Golden Eagles. Here's more on Tanaka and the international prospect front…

  • Ben Badler of Baseball America cites a story from Japanese media outlet Sponichi in reporting that the Diamondbacks, Braves, Mariners, Red Sox and Yankees were among the teams with scouts in attendance for Tanaka's most recent start. Tanaka whiffed 11 hitters in a complete-game effort, yielding two runs on seven hits and a pair of walks, Badler adds in his subscription-only game report.
  • The Rangers signed 16-year-old Dominican infielder Yimmelvyn Alonzo for $350K, according to MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez (Twitter link). Over at BA, Badler points out that because Texas is already 15 percent over their spending pool, the Rangers will have to pay a 100 percent overage fee, meaning Alonzo essentially cost them $700K. Sanchez writes that Alonzo has some of the best raw power in this year's class of international prospects, though scouts are split on whether or not he can stay at shortstop. Some feel he will ultimately end up in the outfield or even at first base as he continues to grow.

NL East Notes: Nats, McCann, Zambrano, Fernandez

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Entering his final season as Nationals manager, Davey Johnson said that, in his mind, it was "World Series or Bust" for 2013.  Today, the Nationals find themselves with a slim 1.6% chance of getting the second Wild Card spot in the National League, according to Baseball Prospectus.  What went wrong in Washington?  “We lost a few key players over the offseason and changed the dynamics of the bullpen. We had pretty much a set lineup and a had a different configuration on the bench. We still have a few little things to fix," Johnson said, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.  "Starting pitching needs to be squared away. The bullpen is not nearly as efficient and effective as it was last year. And the bench has not been as productive. I still like the talent, but we lack some experience, as I talked about. I usually like to have my stacked hand before I make those predictions."  Here's more out of the NL East..

  • Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets that it is a fait accompli that Brian McCann will be playing for a new team in 2014 due to the presence of Evan Gattis and Christian Bethancourt in Atlanta as well as the Braves' tight budget.
  • Pitcher Carlos Zambrano, who most recently played with the Marlins and Phillies organizations, is healthy and wants to play again in 2014, according to his agent Scott Shapiro (via a Heyman tweet). Big Z will play winter ball in Venezuela to prepare for next season, he adds.
  • Paul Hagen of MLB.com wonders if Jose Fernandez's campaign might be the best ever put together by a rookie pitcher.  The Marlins phenom had a 2.23 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in the 27 starts leading up to tonight's game.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

NL East Notes: Braves, Tejada, Parnell, Galvis

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Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro and David Carpenter exemplify the Braves' knack for getting the most out of the "free talent" market (players claimed off waivers or signed as minor league free agents), writes ESPN's Keith Law in his latest Insider piece. Law writes that the Braves have succeeded with tight payrolls in recent years by excelling in this area, and he also looks at the next wave of "free-talent" players on the horizon for the Braves. Here's more out of the NL East…

  • Ruben Tejada is expected to join the Mets today as a September callup, which will leave him one day shy of accumulating his third full year of MLB service time, writes ESPN New York's Adam Rubin. Rubin reported yesterday that the Mets would likely delay Tejada's promotion for that purpose, as it will keep Tejada from reaching free agency for an additional year.
  • Mets closer Bobby Parnell will undergo surgery to repair the herniated disk in his neck, manager Terry Collins told reporters, including Brian Lewis of the New York Post. Collins said that Parnell "should" be ready for Spring Training but would make no promises on that front. I'd imagine that any uncertainty surrounding Parnell would only further what should be an interesting offseason for the Mets on the bullpen front, with so many free agents in their 2013 relief corps.
  • The presence of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley through at least the 2014 season (and likely the 2015 campaign due to Rollins' easily attainable vesting option) makes a utility role the most realistic option for Freddy Galvis if he's to remain with the Phillies long-term, writes Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News. Interim manager Ryne Sandberg feels that Galvis fits the mold of a strong bench player due to his defensive capabilities and "consistent progress and work with his batting."

NL East Notes: Bethancourt, Tejada, Zimmerman

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The Braves will promote top prospect Christian Bethancourt today, according to Tom Hart of FOX Sports in Atlanta (Twitter link). The 22-year-old catcher hit .277/.305/.436 at Double-A Mississippi this season. While those numbers don't look tremendously impressive, Bethancourt turned it on after a slow start, batting .300/.339/.521 with 11 homers from June 13 on. He currently ranks as the Braves' No. 3 prospect and the fifth-best catching prospect in baseball in the eyes of MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. Here's more on Bethancourt and the rest of the NL East…

  • MLB.com's Mark Bowman tweets that Bethancourt's promotion will allow him to get acquainted with the Majors, which is a good thing, as it's likely that he or Evan Gattis will be the Braves' starting catcher in 2014. In doing so, Bowman implies that Brian McCann is likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. That thought has been echoed by others in recent weeks, including David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
  • The Mets will stall Ruben Tejada's promotion back to the Majors, writes Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, and in doing so, they will delay his free agency until after the 2017 season instead of the 2016 season. Tejada hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball of late, as he's batted just .275/.324/.364 from July through Sept. 2 at Triple-A Las Vegas — one of the most hitter-friendly environments in all of professional baseball.
  • Ryan Zimmerman has regained confidence in his throwing and believes he can continue to play third base for the Nationals, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Zimmerman concedes that he doubted his future at the hot corner earlier in the season. He tells Kilgore that his shoulder injuries in 2012 wore his right arm down to the point where he couldn't lift it above his head, causing him to develop bad throwing habits. He had surgery to repair the shoulder last October, but breaking those poor habits and rebuilding the strength in his arm has been a slow process, Zimmerman says. Ultimately, the decision on when to move to first won't be Zimmerman's, Kilgore writes. The team could even move Adam LaRoche this winter and make the switch in 2014.
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