Poll: How To Handle The Braves’ Young Players
Last night, I discussed the Braves overflowing cupboard of players that seem to fit the mold of early extension candidates, looking at whether GM Frank Wren would join the league-wide trend of locking up young talent. In a nutshell, the team seems to have at least eleven players that arguably could warrant extension consideration in the immediate future: Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Chris Johnson, Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Jonny Venters, Julio Teheran, and Justin Upton. (I mention Upton last because, though he is just 26, he has already signed one extension and thus is not looking for his first big payday. All of the other players still have at least two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.) Inspired by the MLBTR commenters that endeavored to sort through this group, I thought it would be interesting to ask our readers to weigh in on the situation in its full context.
As noted in my earlier piece, Atlanta does have room in its future payroll to fit some extensions. Then again, it also has over $40MM committed to just three players over the next two years, and boasts an annual payroll that has tended to land right around $90MM at opening day. The list of players we've compiled is good enough that you could probably just add average players around it and still have a winner. Without demeaning the immense contributions this year of part-timers like Jordan Schafer and Evan Gattis, to say nothing of Brian McCann and a solid all-around pitching staff, that is very nearly what the Braves have done. But if the full core cannot be maintained for the long-term, with big arbitration raises ramping up beginning next year, then how should the team prioritize amongst its youngsters?
To keep things simple, we'll allow for three options on each of the youngsters noted above: First, go year to year for the time being, potentially risking losing the player through free agency and paying full boat (arbitration-wise, anyway) for their services. Second, explore a long-term extension that delivers cost-certainty and perhaps cost savings, while adding risk and reducing payroll flexibility. (Of course, the length and value will vary widely by player, but we will have to save that discussion for another day.) Third, shop the player on the open market, looking to return even younger, cheaper, close-to-the-bigs talent.
It is important, of course, to consider the internal options that the team's always-productive minor league system has in the pipeline. The Braves' top prospects include a bevy of young pitchers, some of whom — in particular, J.R. Graham, Sean Gilmartin, and Cody Martin — could soon be ready to contribute at the MLB level along with rookie Alex Wood. There are a few top position players in the upper minors as well, led by catcher Christian Bethancourt, outfielder Todd Cunningham, third baseman Edward Salcedo, and second baseman Tommy La Stella.
Here is a breakdown of the contract situations of the eleven players we will consider:
Second-Year Arb-Eligible (2013 salary; notes)
- Outfielder Jason Heyward ($3.65MM)
- Starter Kris Medlen ($2.6MM)
- Reliever Jonny Venters ($1.62MM; missed all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery)
- Third baseman Chris Johnson ($2.88MM; qualified for arbitration as Super Two)
First-Year Arb-Eligible (notes)
- Closer Craig Kimbrel
- First baseman Freddie Freeman
- Starter Brandon Beachy
- Starter Mike Minor (will have 2.138 years of service and likely be arb-eligible as Super Two)
Pre-Arb-Eligible (notes)
- Shortstop Andrelton Simmons (will have 1.125 years of service)
- Starter Julio Teheran (will have 1.062 years of service)
Under Contract Through 2015 (salary)
- Outfielder Justin Upton (owed $14.25MM in 2014 and $14.5MM in 2015)
Click here to view the results as they come in.
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Will The Braves Seek To Extend Their Young Core?
It's no secret that Atlanta plays home to one of the best collections of young, established big leaguers in the game. The Braves have steamrolled back to the top of the NL East this season, led by that youthful core. Even as the team focuses on the coming post-season, it is worth considering whether, and when, Atlanta will follow the baseball-wide trend of locking up talent through early extensions over the coming offseason.
The list of reasonable possibilities is extensive, and impressive: first baseman Freddie Freeman; Andrelton Simmons at short; outfielder Jason Heyward; maybe even third-bagger Chris Johnson. Then, there are the pitchers: Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Jonny Venters, and Julio Teheran could all make sense, either now or in the foreseeable future. These players — eight of the team's top nine in terms of fWAR (excepting the injured Beachy and Venters) — have all yet to reach their second year of arbitration.
With this many candidates, it is difficult to analyze each player on his own merit. (MLBTR has recently looked at the cases for Heyward and Medlen, though the situations of both players have changed somewhat over the season.) As a whole, though, it seems that the Braves have an even greater opportunity — albeit, a more complicated one — than those availed of recently by so many other teams. As MLBTR's Zach Links has explained, the increasing utilization of early-career extensions has created fears that the free agent market will be depressed. Such extensions, Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus wrote, have become "the mainstream strategy."
To date, however, the Braves have not locked up any of their young stars. After passing on Michael Bourn, Atlanta is poised to do the same with 29-year-old catcher Brian McCann and 28-year-old reliever Eric O'Flaherty, both of whom reach free agency after distinguishing themselves with the Braves. (MLBTR's Mark Polishuk profiled the extension case for O'Flaherty in March of last year, a year before he was lost to Tommy John surgery; Mike Axisa did the same for Bourn in January of 2012.)
It is not just the recent crop: in the nearly six-year reign of GM Frank Wren, Atlanta has not extended a single player who had less than five years of MLB service time at the time of the deal. The last extension of any kind that the team completed was the five-year, $62MM contract given Dan Uggla in January of 2011, which was agreed upon immediately after he was traded for — hardly an example of baseball's recent trend. Over Wren's six years, aside from the Uggla deal, the team has only committed $82.25MM in total to extensions, every penny of which went to grizzled veterans Tim Hudson, Chipper Jones, David Ross, and Rafael Soriano.
Of course, there are good explanations for the team's disinclination to focus on extending its core over the last offseason. The front office had other business: it pulled off a blockbuster deal for Justin Upton, who had already been extended by his former club, and inked B.J. Upton to a five-year contract as a free agent.
With at least two years of control still remaining on Atlanta's admirable array of youngsters, there is plenty of time to act. And the team has flexibility: at present, its total future commitments are just $42.4MM for 2014, $42MM for 2015, $15.45MM for 2016, and $16.45MM for 2017. Of course, virtually all of those obligations are tied up in three players, Uggla and the Upton brothers, and the team's opening day payroll has hovered in the $90MM range of late. It may become necessary for the Braves to begin exploring trade opportunities to help manage the coming burst in salary obligations.
Focusing on the possibility of extensions, Wren could look to bag the players with less service time while a bargain is still possible, or could focus on extending control over those that are closer to reaching the open market. (This latter group could include the younger Upton, whose deal expires after 2015.) Or, he could continue to let his players earn their salaries year to year, at least for another season. Whether the Braves aim to work out long-term deals as the cost begins to rise through the arbitration process — and, if so, how they prioritize negotiations amongst so many viable candidates — will be fascinating to watch over the coming winter and spring.
Minor Moves: Matt Pagnozzi, Luke Montz
Here are today's minor moves from around the league…
- The Astros have acquired catcher Matt Pagnozzi from the Braves in exchange for cash considerations, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. In order to make room on the 40-man roster, they've transferred righty Edgar Gonzalez to the 60-day DL, McTaggart adds (Twitter links). Pagnozzi, 30, hasn't appeared in the Majors since 2011 but is a .310/.364/.380 hitter in a small sample of 83 plate appearances in the bigs. His Triple-A track record suggests that success isn't sustainable, as he hit .210/.274/.314 in 90 games this season and is a career .230/.308/.334 hitter in seven seasons at that level.
- The Athletics announced that they have released catcher Luke Montz after he was designated for assignment over the weekend (Twitter link). Montz, 30, has a .246/.352/.541 line in 145 plate appearances at Triple-A this season, which is very similar to the production he showed with the Marlins from 2011-12.
- As can be seen in MLBTR's DFA Tracker, there are currently a whopping 14 players in DFA limbo: Jordan Brown, Daniel Bard, Juan Diaz, Eduardo Sanchez, Taylor Teagarden, Eric Thames, Joe Benson, Tim Fedroff, Justin Freeman, Kensuke Tanaka, Dan Runzler, Hideki Okajima, Dave Sappelt, and Edinson Rincon.
Quick Hits: McCann, Dotel, Tanaka, Astros
The Pirates' acquisition of Justin Morneau is rated by Scott Miller of CBSSports.com as the August waiver trade with the highest "Cody Ross potential." Ross, of course, was an unheralded pickup in August 2010 who ended up paying huge dividends in the Giants' World Series victory that season. Here are some more items from around the majors…
- Though Evan Gattis' storybook rookie season has been slowed by injuries and slumps, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution still doesn't think the Braves will push to re-sign Brian McCann this winter. Since the Braves won't be able to transition McCann from catcher to DH as he ages, O'Brien figures that an AL team who can offer this luxury will outbid Atlanta for McCann's services. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes ranked McCann third the last edition of his 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, though McCann's bat has cooled off (.674 OPS in 89 PA) in August.
- There is a "99.9%" chance that Octavio Dotel will be shut down for the season, Tigers manager Jim Leyland told reporters, including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Dotel hasn't pitched since April 19 due to an elbow injury and he has experienced forearm tightness during his minor league rehab assignment. Since Dotel turns 40 in November, it has been speculated that this injury could mark the end of Dotel's career, though Leyland said he wasn't aware of the veteran reliever's future plans.
- The Yankees have "heavily scouted" Masahiro Tanaka, sending scouts to see many of Tanaka's starts for Rakuten, Mark Hale and George A. King III of the New York Post report. Assistant GM Billy Eppler and special assignment scout Don Wakamatsu were in Japan last week for one of Tanaka's outings. The Yankees and Rangers could be the favorites to make the highest posting bid for Tanaka should Rakuten make him available this offseason, though the Giants, Red Sox, Athletics and Twins are also known to be interested in the right-hander.
- Fangraphs' Wendy Thurm explores when the Astros will start to raise their payroll by comparing the club's major payroll cuts to other teams who have slashed salaries in recent years.
- With Alex Rodriguez facing a possible season-long suspension in 2014 and Mark Reynolds and Kevin Youkilis both question marks, ESPN's Jim Bowden (Insider subscription required) looks at some long-, medium- and short-term third base answers that the Yankees could acquire from another team.
- The Twins should move Joe Mauer to first base next season and rely on either rookie Josmil Pinto to play catcher or sign A.J. Pierzynski, Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune opines. Pierzynski, who spent his first six seasons in Minnesota, would also provide the Twins with some needed grit and leadership, Souhan adds. Pierzynski will hit the free agent market again this winter and one would think he'd prefer to play for a contender at this late stage in his career. He's hitting .283/.309/.452 with 16 homers in 424 PA with the Rangers this season so he'll certainly have a market for his services.
Cafardo On Kuroda, Zduriencik, Choo, Arroyo
The waiver trade deadline is one week away, meaning that teams have to work fast if they want to make an out-of-house upgrade for their playoff roster. Will there be a flurry of moves to close out August? “I doubt it,” one National League General Manager told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. “There’s a lot more blocking going on this year.” Here's more from today's column..
- The Yankees increased Hiroki Kuroda’s salary from $10MM in 2011 to $15MM in 2012 and Cafardo wonders aloud if they'll have to tack on another $5MM to keep him in 2014. One Yankees official said they need to do whatever they can to make that happen, as the right-hander, even at 39, would still be the best starting pitcher on the open market. Kuroda has pondered retirement but a sizable deal like that could keep him in place.
- Baseball people would be surprised if the Mariners replace Jack Zduriencik with one year remaining on his contract. The feeling is the M's have some good young talent on the way and if Zduriencik can retain Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and Mike Morse, he has a chance to really make some progress. Zduriencik raised some eyebrows when he held on to that trio this summer, but he believes he can re-sign a couple or all three.
- It doesn’t appear that the Reds will have the finances to sign Shin-Soo Choo for the long term and the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, and Red Sox could all have interest. Industry sources told Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com last week that the Cubs are expected to make a run at Choo. The outfielder ranks No. 5 on Tim Dierkes' 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.
- Speaking of the Reds, Bronson Arroyo probably won't be back with the club and a National League team like the Cardinals, Mets, or Braves would probably suit him. Cafardo also notes that Cubs president Theo Epstein has an affinity for Arroyo.
- Agent Scott Boras would like to see clients Stephen Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury re-sign with the Red Sox long term. Naturally, he expects a vibrant market for both players.
- A.J. Burnett could be a candidate to stay in with the Pirates, even though he's hinted about retirement. If he goes elsewhere, it's hard to see him getting a long-term deal, but the Blue Jays could try to bring him back for the short term.
Rosenthal On Gonzalez, Peavy, DeJesus, Lohse
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports released his latest Full Count video today. Let's take a look:
- Discussing the Phillies' ongoing negotiations with Cuban righty Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Rosenthal notes that that delays of this kind typically develop after a team finds a problem with a player's physical. If there is cause for concern, the Phillies could incorporate protective language into the contract or sign Gonzalez to a smaller deal than the six-year, $48MM pact that was reported last month.
- Recent Red Sox acquisition Jake Peavy told Rosenthal that he was prepared to move money around in his contract to facilitate a trade from the White Sox to the Cardinals, or any other team that asked him to do so. However, the Cardinals never made an offer for Peavy.
- Rival executives suggest to Rosenthal that the Nationals' waiver claim of David DeJesus may have been a mistake. The quality of prospect that the Nats obtain from the Rays for DeJesus could hint at the impetus behind the deal, Rosenthal says.
- The Braves were the team that claimed Kyle Lohse after the Brewers placed him on waivers earlier this month, and hoped to use him as a replacement for the injured Tim Hudson. However, the Brewers opted not to try to work out a deal. They may attempt to move him in the offseason, however, as the two years and $22MM remaining on his deal could be attractive in the weak free agent market.
Braves Acquire Freddy Garcia
The Orioles announced that they have traded Freddy Garcia to the Braves in exchange for cash considerations. The veteran will report to Triple-A Gwinnett, according to a press release from the Braves.
Garcia, 36, was optioned from the majors to the club's Triple-A affiliate back in late June. After giving the idea some thought, Garcia opted to stay in the Baltimore organization rather than try his luck elsewhere.
In total, the right-hander posted a 5.77 ERA with 4.4 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in ten starts and one relief appearances for Baltimore this year. Across 13 starts at Triple-A Norfolk, Garcia had a much stronger 2.84 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9.
Today's move comes on the heels of word that Brandon Beachy will be visiting Dr. James Andrews on Monday.
Quick Hits: Beachy, Betancourt, Alvarez, Werth
Is there a more feared name in the sports world than Dr. James Andrews? This time it's the Braves and their fans' turn to be worried — the club tweeted that Brandon Beachy will miss his next start due to a sore right elbow and visit the famed sports surgeon on Monday. Beachy underwent Tommy John surgery on that same right arm in June 2012 and has made just five starts since returning from the injury.
Here's the latest from around the majors…
- Rafael Betancourt left Thursday's game with an elbow injury and the Rockies are concerned the veteran reliever has a torn UCL, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports. That injury would require Tommy John surgery and could threaten the 38-year-old's career. Betancourt will make his third trip to the DL this season, effectively ending any chance that the righty will switch teams. The Rockies placed Betancourt on revocable waivers earlier today.
- Dariel Alvarez has already advanced to the Orioles' high A-ball affiliate, though Baseball America's Ben Badler tells MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski that scouts have questions about Alvarez's potential. "I don't think he was a very high-profile player for a lot of teams," Badler said. "I don't think there was a high level of interest in him. There are a lot of concerns about his hitting translating to game situations….He does have some occasional power, but there is a lot of question among scouts as to whether the hitting will translate against more advanced pitching." Badler felt that Alvarez's $800K bonus was surprisingly high and that Henry Urrutia (another up-and-coming Cuban outfielder in the O's system) is the much better prospect of the two.
- Signing relievers to multiyear deals continues to be a risky proposition, as Fangraphs' Dave Cameron breaks down how only four (arguably five) of the 13 relievers who signed such deals last winter have delivered good value to their teams.
- Jayson Werth's surprising age-34 season has been one of the few bright spots for the Nationals this year, Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post writes. Werth hit .256/.349/.407 and battled injuries in the first two years of his seven-year, $126MM deal with the Nats, but the veteran has lived up this salary this season by posting a .938 OPS with 18 homers through 385 PA.
Braves Claim Elliot Johnson
The Braves have claimed infielder Elliot Johnson off release waivers from the Royals, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter). The Royals had requested release waivers on Monday after designating Johnson for assignment last week.
Johnson, 29, batted .179/.218/.241 in 173 plate appearances for the Royals this season after coming over as the player to be named later in the James Shields–Wil Myers blockbuster. He's a career .212/.267/.313 hitter in 704 plate appearances who is a defensive standout at second base but below average at shortstop, according to Ultimate Zone Rating. The Braves have been said to be looking for extra offense at second base with Dan Uggla and Tyler Pastornicky on the shelf, but the addition of Johnson suggests they're content to make a significant defensive upgrade for the time being.
NL East Notes: Bernadina, Fernandez, Carpenter
The Nationals' trade for David DeJesus was the headline news out of the NL East today, and you can read some of extra details behind the deal and reaction to the Nats' move here. Here are some other notes from around the NL East..
- The Phillies have interest in Roger Bernadina, CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury reports. Bernadina was released by the Nationals today to create roster space for DeJesus. The 29-year-old is hitting .179/.247/.270 with two homers in 167 PA. As Salisbury notes, Bernadina has played all three outfield positions and could provide the Phils with much-needed depth for this season and perhaps beyond.
- Jose Fernandez's last start of the season will occur in the first week of September, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro calculates, possibly on September 4 against the Cubs at Wrigley Field or at home on September 6 against the Nationals. Fernandez was put on a 170-inning cap by the Marlins at the start of the year and he has made every one count. The 21-year-old phenom allowed just one earned run over six innings against the red-hot Dodgers tonight, dropping his ERA to 2.41 in 24 starts.
- The Braves' claim of David Carpenter off waivers from the Red Sox last November has proven to be a steal, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes (AJC subscriber account required). Carpenter has posted a 1.86 ERA and 10.6 K/9 in 48 1/3 innings out of the Atlanta bullpen this season.
- Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog.com doesn't see the Mets signing Jose Dariel Abreu, noting that it would be unlike Sandy Alderson to give a major contract to a player with so many question marks surrounding him. Abreu could receive a deal in excess of $60MM and the Orioles, Red Sox, Pirates and White Sox are all known to have interest in the Cuban slugger.