Wren Talks Prado, Chipper, Bourn
The Braves narrowly missed the playoffs last week, losing to the Phillies in the final game of the regular season as the Cardinals surged past them into the Division Series. Atlanta GM Frank Wren looked ahead to the offseason in a Q&A with reporters, including Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The details:
- There’s a strong likelihood that Martin Prado will return to left field in 2012. The Braves haven’t discussed moving Prado to another position.
- The Braves know that Chipper Jones’ knee won’t permit him to play seven days in a row, so they’ll be on the lookout for utility help this offseason. They have a $1.5MM option for Eric Hinske in 2012 ($100K buyout).
- Wren isn’t looking for bullpen depth, since he was pleased with the late-season results from Cristhian Martinez and Anthony Varvaro.
- The Braves aren’t certain whether Kris Medlen will start or relieve in 2012.
- Wren is open to the idea of extending Michael Bourn. They “like the infusion of speed” and could discuss a mutliyear deal instead of going through the arbitration process. Bourn, who is scheduled to hit free agency after 2012, will earn a raise from $4.4MM next year.
Quick Hits: Mets, Rockies, La Russa, Vizquel
Links for Sunday..
- Mets lefties Pat Misch and Mike O'Connor declared minor league free agency, writes Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. O'Connor posted an ugly 5.22 ERA but strong 9.8 K/9 in 60 1/3 innings at Triple-A, while Misch posted a 4.00 ERA, 6.0 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in 141 2/3 innings.
- The Rockies will look to bolster their rotation this winter, writes Jim Armstrong of The Denver Post. General Manager Dan O'Dowd says that he'll especially be looking for an innings eater.
- Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (via Twitter) believes that Tony La Russa can have the White Sox job if he really wants it, though that is a big if. Heyman also tweets that he doesn't see Francona coming to the South Side of Chicago.
- Shortstop Omar Vizquel talked with Edgar Leal Suarez of La Verdad (Spanish link, translation provided by Nick Collias) about the 2011 campaign and his future plans. The veteran reiterated that he hopes to continue playing next season and will evaluate his opportunities after the World Series.
- David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter) expects the Braves to go target shortstops, corner outfielders, and utility infielders this winter.
- Yankees left-hander C.C. Sabathia is expected to opt-out of his contract but earlier today he confessed that New York is the best place to play baseball, tweets David Waldstein of the New York Times.
NL East Links: Rollins, Lowe, Heyward, Nats
The National League portion of the playoffs don't start until tomorrow, but there's plenty of news coming out of Senior Circuit. Let's round up some links from the NL East…
- "That's a tough call, a tough call" joked Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies when asked by Newsday's David Lennon if he would play in New York (Twitter link). Rollins will become a free agent after the season, like Mets shortstop Jose Reyes.
- Braves GM Frank Wren told Dave O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Derek Lowe is not projected to have a spot in the rotation next year (Twitter link). The bullpen or a trade are options. Lowe is owed $15MM next year, the final one on his contract.
- Wren also said that Jason Heyward is not guaranteed to start in right field next year, but the GM told MLB.com's Mark Bowman that the Braves have never talked about trading the 22-year-old (Twitter link).
- Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com looked at five issues the Nationals must deal with this offseason, including settling on a manager.
Braves Notes: Heyward, Chipper, Coaches, Reyes
The Braves will be facing extra pressure this offseason as the team tries to recover from its September collapse. Here's the latest from Turner Field….
- "There is some sentiment within the organization that Atlanta might be better off dealing Jason Heyward," writes ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider subscription required). Heyward suffered through a difficult sophomore season and as a result, "there are voices within the franchise asking the question of whether he can be counted on" as a long-term building block. I'd say that there's little chance the club gives up such a promising young talent, though as the Yunel Escobar trade showed, the Braves aren't afraid to deal a quality player if they feel the player isn't a fit. The Braves would be selling low on Heyward, though they would still recoup a nice return given his reputation and impressive 2010 rookie season.
- Chipper Jones says the team's September failure hasn't affected his decision to return in 2012, reports David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
- Fredi Gonzalez confirmed that the entire Braves' coaching staff will return next year, reports MLB.com's Mark Bowman.
- The Braves don't require a major overhaul, opines Fangraphs' Eno Sarris, though he suggests a few position switches that could improve the team's defense.
- ESPN's Jim Bowden (Insider subscription req'd) agrees that the Braves don't need to shake up their roster and suggests that Atlanta could be one of the top suitors for Jose Reyes. Bowden also notes that the Braves have fewer looming issues than their September collapse partners in Boston: "While age and a barren farm system dim the Red Sox's upside going into 2012, the Braves have a much brighter outlook."
Braves Designate Matt Young For Assignment
The Braves have designated Matt Young for assignment, reports MLB.com's Mark Bowman (on Twitter). The move frees up a 40-man roster spot for Kris Medlen, who was activated off the 60-day DL.
Young, 28, hit just .208/.269/.229 in 52 plate appearances with Atlanta this year. He played all three outfield spots and second base, but spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he hit .273/.372/.347 with 17 steals and nearly as many walks (57) as strikeouts (59). Medlen is coming off Tommy John surgery, and he could provide some relief to a bullpen that features three pitchers with 76 or more appearances.
Rosenthal On Moneyball
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to a slew of top executives about Moneyball, with the movie coming out Friday. Here are a few highlights.
- Executives Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) and Mark Shapiro (Indians) agree that the stark line drawn by the 2003 book between scouting and statistics is not present today. I've yet to find a baseball executive who doesn't prefer a blend.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman admits that the Red Sox "were having a great deal of success with players of lesser ability," adding, "I studied what they were doing to some degree, adjusted accordingly, brought the Yankees up to speed, brought us into the 21st century."
- Shapiro, president of the Indians, expects further dominance of big-market teams in the next five to seven years. He added, "That doesn’t preclude small-market teams from winning. But they’re going to go in and out, go through cycles of winning, then violently remaking their rosters."
- Paul DePodesta told Rosenthal he thinks the explosion of information in baseball would have happened without Moneyball, but Cashman and Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. noted that they were pleased to see Oakland's methods revealed in the book.
- Braves president John Schuerholz doesn't think so-called Moneyball teams have been successful, saying, "I think everyone looked and I don’t think many considered it a better mousetrap. You look at the won-loss records of the teams that adopted and the teams that didn’t, I don’t think you’ll find much of a difference in the impact."
- Brewers GM Doug Melvin is losing some faith, based on "some bad experiences with possible deals that I might have made based off numbers."
- Athletics GM Billy Beane believes injuries represent a current opportunity, if a team can create an advantage in prevention and treatment. DePodesta noted that inefficiencies arise every five or six years, when a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.
Pirates Acquire Eliecer Cardenas
The Pirates announced that they have acquired right-hander Eliecer Cardenas from the Braves to complete the deal that sent Matt Diaz back to Atlanta last month. The Braves acquired Diaz from Pittsburgh for a player to be named on August 31st, the last day for teams to add players who are eligible for the postseason.
Cardenas, 23, reached Double-A this year, though he spent most of his season at Class A. The Dominican pitched 59 2/3 total innings, all in relief, and posted a 2.11 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9 (his ERA with Class A Lynchburg was 0.79). The Braves selected Cardenas from the Twins in the minor league phase of last winter's Rule 5 draft.
Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: None
- Second time: Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, Eric O'Flaherty
- Third time: Michael Bourn, Peter Moylan
Moylan had back surgery in May and returned in September, he'll have a low innings total for 2011. That should hold his salary at $2MM, and I think the Braves will retain him assuming they consider him healthy.
We've got Bourn down for a raise of nearly $3MM, up to $7.2MM. Jurrjens projects for a fairly modest raise to $5.1MM. He's tallied fewer than 300 innings over the last two seasons, and that hurts his arbitration earnings. Prado is looking at about $4.4MM and O'Flaherty could get $2.4MM.
Our total for the Braves' five arbitration eligible players is $21.1MM. Assuming Eric Hinske's option is picked up, the Braves would have about $88MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players. That's only about $3MM below this year's Opening Day payroll of $91MM, though they have exceeded $100MM twice in the last decade.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Quick Hits: Clippard, Storen, Ellsbury, Braves
B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Casey Kotchman all homered for the Rays tonight as Tampa Bay defeated Boston, 9-2, in the opener of a big four-game series. The Red Sox now have just a three-game lead over the Rays (and a four-game lead over the idle Angels) for the AL Wild Card.
Some notes from around the league….
- If Drew Storen is traded, Tyler Clippard shouldn't become the Nationals' closer since he's proven to be invaluable as the team's go-to reliever, argues Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. It could be a moot point, though, since Goessling says it's "unlikely" that the Nats deal Storen.
- The Rays were the first team to discover Jacoby Ellsbury, drafting him in the 23rd round of the 2002 draft. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal talks to the scouts who pushed for Tampa Bay to pick Ellsbury, who instead decided to attend Oregon State.
- Frank Wren tells David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that no decision has been made about Alex Gonzalez's future with the Braves, but both the club and the shortstop sound open to Gonzalez returning in 2012. Gonzalez is popular in the clubhouse and would be an ideal bridge at shortstop to prospect Tyler Pastornicky.
- Mike Newman of Fangraphs profiles Braves minor league left-hander Ronan Pacheco, who "is simply too perfect an example of a pitcher who bucks just about every prospect stereotype on both the statistical and scouting sides to not discuss."
- Matt Eddy of Baseball America recaps this week's minor league transactions.
- David DeJesus "appears the least likely to return" of the Athletics' three free agent outfielders, writes MLB.com's Jane Lee. Josh Willingham and Coco Crisp are also free agents this winter and Willingham said earlier today that he would like to stay with Oakland.
- Angels GM Tony Reagins tells Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he doesn't regret giving Bobby Abreu the $9MM option for 2012 that vested in July.
GM Candidate: John Coppolella
MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced the MLB executives who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re now going to bring you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces.
It's time to get acquainted with Braves director of professional scouting John Coppolella. John worked his way from the ground up in baseball, landing an unpaid internship with the Lake Elsinore Storm back in 1997. By the time John graduated from Notre Dame he had an Angels internship in his pocket as well, and that led to a couple of positions with the Yankees. John joined the Braves' front office five years ago and currently has a hand in player evaluations, acquisitions, and contracts.
I recently exchanged emails with John covering a wide range of topics, many of which follow up on comments he made in a Baseball Prospectus chat last month.
Which people have served as mentors for you in baseball?
At the Yankees it was Brian Cashman, Mark Newman, Kim Ng, Damon Oppenheimer, Gordon Blakeley, and Billy Connors. Damon taught me a lot about scouting and got me to spend less time on the computer and more time in the stands. At the Braves it was and continues to be John Schuerholz, Frank Wren, Bruce Manno, Jim Fregosi, and Paul Snyder. I consider John to be the best GM in the history of the game while Frank and Bruce are extremely bright and hard-working leaders who have helped me grow and provided me with opportunities.
How has your job description changed with the promotion to director of professional scouting?
Not at all. Like Frank said it was more a case of having my title match my job description. I still continue to lead our analytics department, statistical efforts, and arbitration research, but the most important work I do is with our scouts. All of that work ties in with waivers, free agency signings, etc, and helps me assist Frank and Bruce in all facets of baseball operations.
You've called the current arbitration system "terrible." Can you elaborate?
It’s a flawed system that leaves both parties unhappy. I’ve done dozens of deals and don’t feel great about any of them, but I feel even worse about the process. A couple of years ago Bruce and I were getting ready to pull two of our players out of big league spring training so we could fly them across the country to Phoenix in order for them to attend a hearing where they would hear us berate their performances in an effort to take money out of their pockets. The cases got settled, but neither player is still in the Braves organization.
Assuming the current arbitration system stays in place, do you envision a day, perhaps five years from now, when advanced statistics will help one side win a hearing?
Arbitration is a complete crapshoot. Either side – club or player – could make a compelling case and still lose based upon the whims of an arbitration panel that knows very little about baseball.
Do you have any ideas on changes that could eliminate the manuevering some teams do to prevent top prospects from getting Super Two status?
I don’t think a perfect system exists. I would be lying if I said I didn’t think some clubs tried to prevent prospects from getting Super Two status, but I think it’s overstated. Teams need to win games, otherwise the management team holding these players back will themselves be held accountable. We all need to win and I know at the Braves we have never held somebody back because it might save us a few million dollars a few years down the line.
You recently mentioned Brooks Conrad, Jose Constanza, Eric O'Flaherty, and Cristian Martinez as minor league signings/waiver claims of which you're most proud. Can you elaborate?
All of these waiver claims and minor league signings make me proud because it shows the great work our scouts are doing for the Braves. A week ago we closed out a doubleheader sweep of the Mets in New York with Cristhian Martinez, Eric O’Flaherty, and Anthony Varvaro, all three of whom were claimed off waivers. Dom Chiti and Jeff Wren pushed hard for Martinez. Fregosi and Dick Balderson pushed hard for O’Flaherty and Varvaro. Tim Conroy pushed hard for Constanza. All of us talk about these players and Frank makes the final decision, but we are all part of the process, and I feel like we have had more success in these markets than any other team in baseball.
You've mentioned how the next Cubs GM will be entering a challenging situation. What would be your approach to fixing the club? Do you think the Cubs should use 2012 as a rebuilding year, despite the size of their fan base?
I don’t feel comfortable commenting on how other clubs should approach the construction of their club. Our focus at the Braves is on getting into the playoffs, advancing as far as possible, and putting together another great club for 2012.
