2005 Draft Throwdown
While dreams are coming true for hundreds of high school and college players this week, let's compare the paths of some 2005 first round draft picks. Nothing is more interesting than seeing how teams did choosing players at the same position. In a draft, it is the closest teams come to the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. Meanwhile, those lists haunt fans' memories for years to come.
- Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) vs. Ryan Braun (Brewers): This battle between Zimmerman, picked fourth, and Braun, picked fifth, was to be a test of hot corner prowess. But while Zimmerman has excelled at the position, winning a Gold Glove in 2009 and grading well under more advanced defensive metrics, Braun settled in left field after proving to be a disastrous fielder at third base. So far, Braun has a .931 to .836 edge in OPS, but with Zimmerman putting up an .888 in 2009 and at .986 so far in 2010, that gap may well have disappeared. Moving forward, the edge goes to Zimmerman, a terrific hitter, though a notch below Braun, but a far more valuable defensive player. Both teams won here, though.
- Cameron Maybin (Tigers) vs. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): These high school center fielders went back-to-back, with Maybin going tenth and McCutchen going 11th. The early returns suggest that the Tigers made a poor choice here, though they ultimately packaged Maybin in a deal for Miguel Cabrera, so they're not exactly complaining. McCutchen has hit since he arrived in Pittsburgh last season, and a 23-year-old with an .847 OPS in his first 733 major league plate appearances stands an awfully good chance of being an elite player for years to come. Maybin is still immensely talented, and could turn into a star- but McCutchen already is one. Pirates win- how often do you get to read that?
- Craig Hansen (Red Sox) vs. Joey Devine (Braves): This throwdown is a lesson in the perils of college pitchers. They seem like sure things, compared to high schoolers, and from the start, the Red Sox and Braves thought they had their ninth-innings mapped out for years to come. Hansen, drafted 26th out of St. John's, has yet to find command at the major league level, with 63 walks against 70 strikeouts in 93.2 innings. The right-hander was one of the moving parts in the three-team deal that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles. Hansen's troubles were baffling, until the discovery of a degenerative nerve condition that has his career in doubt. Devine, chosen 27th, got traded to Oakland for Mark Kotsay, so Atlanta didn't benefit much from choosing him, either. The Athletics got a fantastic 2008 out of Devine- a 0.59 ERA in 45.2 innings with 49 strikeouts. Tommy John surgery kept him out for 2009, but he is currently on track to return to Oakland by the end of June. Winner here? Clearly, the Athletics.
Draft Links: Ruffin, Pomeranz, Grandal, Wolters
The draft is underway, and we've got another round of links.
- Mayo hears that the Indians will take Drew Pomeranz and the D'Backs will take Barret Loux (Twitter link).
- Heyman hears that the Nationals will take Harper, the Pirates will take Jameson Taillon and the O's will take Manny Machado (Twitter link).
- The White Sox could take Grandal if he's available when they select 13th overall, according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter).
- In what would be a surprising move, the Reds appear ready to take Chance Ruffin 12th overall, according to Law.
- Law hears that Pomeranz is sliding and that teams are having "uh-oh" moments because they didn't discuss him enough (Twitter links).
- Padres executive Paul DePodesta explains that the draft has slowed down over the years. That gives teams the chance to breathe a little more easily between selections.
- An Orioles official told Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun that the team will likely pick Manny Machado third overall.
- It looks like the D'Backs will take a college pitcher with their first round pick, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic hears they aren't likely to take lefty Drew Pomeranz.
- The Indians have topped the Royals' predraft offer of $2.9MM to Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal, reports Frankie Piliere of AOL Fanhouse. Piliere still believes the Royals will take Grandal at #4, but the original agreement is off. ESPN's Keith Law, meanwhile, heard that the Royals and Grandal had not even discussed money as of Saturday evening. Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star tweets that the Royals prefer Grandal but are "taking a hard look" at Florida Gulf Coast lefty Chris Sale. Law has the Royals taking Sale, in a recent chat comment.
- Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein tweets that high school infielder Tony Wolters is in play for the Angels, Blue Jays, and Braves in the late first round or the first compensation round. Piliere sees the Braves at #35.
- Goldstein tweets that high school outfielder Drew Vettleson looks like a potential first-round pick, maybe to the Dodgers at #28 (matching the prediction of Baseball America's Jim Callis). Law has heard Vettleson as a possibility for the Dodgers, Rays, and Yankees.
- FanGraphs' David Cameron explains that Bryce Harper doesn't necessarily have more value as a catcher than an outfielder.
- Cameron's colleague Bryan Smith looks at recent draft picks that were questioned at the time they were made.
- Alex Speier of WEEI outlines Boston's shift toward drafting for impact players starting in '06.
- SI's Jon Heyman names the biggest booms and busts in draft history.
2010 Draft Pick Gains And Losses
Using Mike Axisa's 2010 draft order, let's take a look at which teams gained and lost picks through free agent compensation during the offseason.
- Seven clubs added at least one pick without giving any up: the Angels, Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, Cardinals, Rays, and Rockies.
- The Angels lost Chone Figgins and John Lackey, but they added the most and best picks: #18, #29, #37, and #40. This is a huge year for director of scouting Eddie Bane. The Blue Jays added three picks: #34, #41, and #80.
- The Astros, Rangers, and Cardinals each added two picks, with the Astros doing the best by snagging #19 and #33 for Jose Valverde.
- The Orioles and Mets were the only two teams to lose a pick without adding any; those are #53 and #57 respectively.
- The Mariners added #43 but gave up #18, while the Tigers added #44 and #48 while giving up #19.
- The Red Sox came out in pretty good shape despite signing a pair of Type As in John Lackey and Marco Scutaro. The Sox added #20, #36, #39, and #57 while losing #29 and #80. Losing a Type A who was offered arbitration brings in two picks, but signing such a player only costs one.
- The Braves added picks #35 and #53, but surrendered #20.
Originally published 3-29-10.
Remembering the 1990 Trade Deadline
Ah, 1990. Times were very different then. Ken Griffey Jr. played for the Seattle Mariners. The Simpsons and Saturday Night Live were on the air. And Congress passed a bill in response to an unprecedented oil spill.
But even if that all seems familiar, the trade deadline of 1990 certainly won't. The action came later in the season, with most of the biggest trades actually taking place in August. Let's meet at the corner of Transaction Avenue and Memory Lane…
- The Boston Red Sox, keen on acquiring a first baseman, grabbed Mike Marshall from the Mets on July 27 for three minor leaguers, headlined by Greg Hansell. Marshall was actually pretty effective for Boston, with a .464 slugging percentage in 117 plate appearances, though he was near the end of his career.
- An August 3 deal between the Braves and Phillies had hidden implications. The immediate deal? Dale Murphy for Jeff Parrett. Both teams also included players to be named later. Atlanta got Jim Vatcher and Victor Rosario. Philadelphia got Tommy Greene, who posted a 3.66 ERA from 1991-93 and and pitched a no-hitter in 1991.
- In a Doyle Alexander-for-John Smoltz-like trade, the Pirates acquired Zane Smith from the Expos for Willie Greene, Scott Ruskin and a player to be named later. At first, the deal seemed one-sided, as Smith went 6-2 with a 1.30 ERA for Pittsburgh as the Pirates won the NL East. However, the PTBNL turned out to be… Moises Alou.
- The Athletics, en route to a World Series appearance, made a pair of interesting moves just before postseason rosters could be set. On August 29, they acquired Harold Baines from the Texas Rangers for Joe Bitker and Scott Chiamparino. The same day, they traded top prospect Felix Jose, Stan Royer and Daryl Green to the Cardinals for Willie McGee. The move froze McGee's National League batting average at .335- he'd go on to win the batting title in absentia. Good thing, too- his .274 mark with Oakland brought his season line down to .324, meaning under today's rules, which combine NL and AL totals, he'd have finished behind Eddie Murray (.330), Dave Magadan (.328) and Lenny Dykstra (.325).
- And the Houston Astros, on August 31, made a blockbuster move, trading longtime second baseman Bill Doran to the eventual World Champion Cincinnati Reds for Terry McGriff, Keith Kaiser and Butch Henry. Oh, and also, they made a throwaway trade, dealing reliever Larry Andersen to the Boston Red Sox for so-so prospect Jeff Bagwell.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Lee, Braves, Mets, Oswalt
On this date 12 years ago, Diamondbacks manager Buck Showalter ordered closer Gregg Olsen to intentionally walk Barry Bonds with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th. Arizona was leading the Giants 8-6 at the time, and the move not only forced in a run, but also put the winning run in scoring position. The next batter, Brent Mayne, flew out to deep center field to end the inning and give the D'Backs the 8-7 win. It was just the third time in history that a batter was intentionally walked with the bases loaded, though the Rays' Joe Maddon turned the same trick with Josh Hamilton in August 2008.
Coincidentally, Bonds hit his 715th career homer to pass Babe Ruth for sole possession of second place on the all-time list on this same date back in 2006. Anyway, here's a collection of links from around the baseball blogiverse…
- Prospect Insider examines the Cliff Lee trade market.
- Capitol Avenue Club lists six players the Braves could select with their first pick, #35 overall, in next month's draft. Atlanta sent their first round pick, #20 overall, to the Red Sox as compensation for signing Billy Wagner.
- Mets Paradise looks at the internal candidates the Mets could turn to if they need to fill another rotation spot.
- Yankeeist reviews some players the Yankees either let go or passed on last offseason, plus some players they could pursue next winter.
- Dodger Dugout tries to figure out what Ned Colletti might be thinking as the trade deadline slowly approaches.
- Meanwhile, The Baseball Opinion speculates about Roy Oswalt landing with the Dodgers.
- The Bottom Line says that John Lackey's curve has been lacking with the Red Sox.
- River Ave. Blues takes a deeper look at some draft prospects the Yankees have been linked to.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: Chapman, Gordon, Winn, Brewers
Some Thursday notes from around the majors…
- Aroldis Chapman recorded seven strikeouts while allowing three hits and a walk over five shutout innings for the Reds' Triple-A affiliate in Louisville tonight, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Chapman is in the midst of a 10 2/3 inning scoreless streak.
- Fangraphs' Jack Moore looks at Alex Gordon's ongoing demolition of Triple-A pitching and says "there’s no excuse if he’s not back in Kansas City by June."
- Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tweets that "many people believe" the Yankees will designate Randy Winn for assignment when Curtis Granderson returns from the DL. Feinsand believes the Yanks should keep Winn and instead send Kevin Russo back to the minors.
- MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports (via Twitter) that the Brewers have signed right-hander Eduardo Morlan to a minor-league deal. The Brewers selected Morlan from Tampa Bay in the 2008 Rule 5 draft but he was designated for assignment and returned to the Rays during spring training of that year. The Rays just released Morlan two days ago.
- ESPN's Insider Rumors section (subscription required) speculates that Rickie Weeks could be a trade candidate if Milwaukee doesn't want to pay his likely arbitration raise in the winter. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explored the Brewers' trade options last week, and noted that Weekes' arbitration salary bump might also cause teams to shy away from acquiring him.
- John Schuerholz chatted on the air with Sirius XM Radio's Jim Bowden today. Bowden tweeted that Schuerholz feels the Braves have enough pop in their lineup and don't "need to make a Fred McGriff type trade." The Crime Dog was acquired by Atlanta in July 1993 for Donnie Elliott, Vince Moore and Melvin Nieves — don't you always need to make a deal like that?
- Bowden also had Baltimore president Andy MacPhail on his show, and speculates (via Twitter) that the O's will look to draft Jameson Taillon based on MacPhail's description of his club's wants. Bowden also tweeted that MacPhail didn't offer an endorsement of manager Dave Trembley, and instead just noted that it's still early in the season.
- Omar Minaya said the Mets might look to trade for a starter later in the summer, reports Kieran Darcy of ESPNNewYork.com.
- Fanhouse's Ed Price explains how Philadelphia's unheralded signings of Jose Contreras and Danys Baez have bailed out their bullpen over the first two months of the season.
- Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com answers Cleveland-related fan questions in a mailbag about such topics as when Michael Brantley will return to the majors, the recent release of Scott Lewis, and how the Tribe passed on Jason Heyward in the 2007 amateur draft.
Odds & Ends: Padres, Chipper, Pagan, Phillies
Links for Thursday, as the Phillies attempt to get their offense going…
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer tells FanGraphs contributor Mike Lee that trading within a division makes sense at times. The entire interview is worth a read.
- In a clip for FanHouse TV, former Mets GM Steve Phillips explains what he meant when he said he would deal Stephen Strasburg for Roy Oswalt.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo breaks down this year's class of draft-eligible catchers and describes Yasmani Grandal's development into a top prospect.
- David Patton, who was designated for assignment when the Cubs had to make room for Bob Howry, has cleared waivers and re-signed with the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (via Twitter).
- Chipper Jones told 790 the Ticket in Miami that he might not play next year, even though he's under contract (transcript on Sports Radio Interviews, hat tip to USA Today). Chipper has gone back and forth on the issue this year.
- Angel Pagan is a better player than Jeff Francoeur for 2010 and beyond, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Phillies are more likely to trade for a third or fourth starter than an ace this summer, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports. Knobler hears that the Phillies may match up best with a team looking to shed the salary of an expensive starter.
- Drew Pomeranz pitched well in front of a dozen or more scouting directors, writes ESPN.com's Keith Law. Meanwhile, teams have questions about righty Anthony Ranaudo's medical history.
- Yahoo's Tim Brown and Jon Heyman of SI.com believe Stephen Strasburg will make his MLB debut on June 8th, though both writers remind us that the date could change (Twitter links).
- David Golebiewski of FanGraphs says Carlos Pena should show more plate discipline and pull the ball if he wants to sign a big free agent contract this offseason.
Stark On Oswalt, Braves, Carmona, Yankees
Astros scouts haven't been told to watch specific teams or players, so Roy Oswalt doesn't need to start preparing for life after Houston just yet. ESPN.com's Jayson Stark has the details on Oswalt and more rumblings from around the major leagues:
- Oswalt has told friends he'd love to play in St. Louis and it's believed that he would be interested in joining the Dodgers and Braves.
- We've heard lots about the $29MM remaining on Oswalt's deal, but the Angels have some money, according to an official Stark spoke to. The Nationals may be "the one team that would pay the whole freight on the contract."
- GM Andrew Friedman says he wasn't sure how Rafael Soriano's National League experience would translate to the American League East when the Rays dealt for him last offseason. Needless to say, the Rays have been pleased with Soriano's dominant start to the season.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. tells Stark that other teams offered Jose Contreras "much more money" last winter.
- Braves GM Frank Wren says he's pleased with Eric Hinske's play and notes that teams probably don't pay enough attention to their benches.
- Wren says the Braves would not have interest in adding a starting pitcher. Besides their current rotation, they have the injured Jair Jurrjens and Triple A pitcher Chris Resop.
- GM Jon Daniels says the Rangers saw "a guy with major league ability and pedigree" when they scouted Colby Lewis in Japan last year.
- One scout says the Blue Jays are definitely tracking Fausto Carmona and have watched his last 12 starts.
- The Red Sox have tried trading Mike Lowell unsuccessfully, but they aren't eager to eat the $8MM-plus remaining on his salary.
- Rival clubs say the Yankees haven't decided what their trade deadline needs are, though they're showing some interest in versatile outfield bats.
Braves Sign Yasser Gomez
The Braves signed Cuban outfielder Yasser Gomez, according to Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald (via Twitter). Gomez, who is now in the Dominican Republic, will not receive a big bonus from the Braves.
Gomez defected from Cuba late in 2008, at which point at least one scout considered him major league ready. At that time, he was described as a speedy outfielder who had hit for high averages in Cuba. Gomez, who is about 30 years old, was declared a free agent last summer. MLB.com's Mark Bowman says Gomez is expected to travel to the United States once he obtains a visa.
Odds & Ends: Miner, Gorzelanny, Heyward, Twins
Links for Wednesday, as the lights go out at Wrigley Field…
- Tigers pitcher Zach Miner will undergo Tommy John surgery, writes MLB.com's Jason Beck.
- The Tigers are better-known for developing power arms, but as Beck shows, the Tigers have successfully developed some position players, too.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says the Cubs don't appear to be involved in serious talks to trade Tom Gorzelanny, but wonders if clubs like the Tigers and Rangers could inquire if the lefty becomes available.
- You knew Jason Heyward was good, but Dave Cameron of FanGraphs puts the outfielder's amazing start in perspective, saying he's on his way to "one of the great rookie seasons of all time."
- Meanwhile, Cameron wonders if the Rays should deal B.J. Upton to a team looking to capitalize on talent. It would save the Rays money and improve their chances of keeping Carl Crawford around.
- One AL assistant GM told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that he doesn't expect the Twins to trade for a reliever this summer.
- 2010 draft prospect and Arlington native Michael Choice tells Chris Cox of MLB.com that it would be "a dream come true" to play for the Rangers, who pick 15th this year. Jonathan Mayo, Frankie Piliere and Keith Law all predicted Choice would be selected before that in their most recent mock drafts.