Mariners Receiving More Trade Calls On Luis Castillo
Over the weekend, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported that the Mariners were willing to entertain offers on Luis Castillo. Trade chatter has picked up in the few days since then. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com writes that the M’s have received a higher volume of trade calls since Max Fried agreed to an eight-year deal with the Yankees on Tuesday.
Castillo, who turns 32 today, seems to be the one member of the Seattle rotation who’ll be available. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has continuously shot down the idea of trading from his young quartet of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller. The M’s reportedly rebuffed the Red Sox when Boston floated a framework of Triston Casas for one of their young starters.
Jon Morosi of the MLB Network suggested yesterday that the Red Sox and Mariners remained in conversations about Seattle’s starting pitching. Boston is probably unwilling to give up Casas for Castillo, however. To that end, Speier relayed last night that a source informed him there was no traction on a deal that would involve those two players.
While Castillo is a less appealing target than Seattle’s controllable arms, he should have positive trade value in his own right. He’s coming off another productive season. Castillo started 30 times and worked to a 3.64 earned run average over 175 1/3 innings. He punched out 24.3% of batters faced against a solid 6.5% walk percentage.
That’s a slight step back from his typical production, as he combined for a 3.47 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate over the preceding three seasons. Even if this wasn’t his best year, Castillo looks the part of a mid-rotation starter. He has topped 150 innings in each of the last six full seasons. Castillo’s fastball sits in the 95-96 MPH range. He still has a better than average strikeout and walk profile.
The differentiators between Castillo and his rotation mates are his contract and age. He’s signed for three more seasons at $22.75MM annually. The deal contains a ’28 vesting option valued at $25MM if Castillo reaches 180 innings in 2027 and finishes that year healthy. There’s some protection for the team in the event he suffers a significant arm injury. If Castillo requires surgery to repair the UCL in his throwing elbow and misses more than 130 days, there’d be a conditional $5MM club option for 2028.
Leaving the options aside, the contract has $68.25MM in guarantees for his age 32-34 seasons. That’s probably a little less than what he’d make if he were a free agent this offseason. Castillo is more consistent than Yusei Kikuchi, who got $63MM going into his age-34 season. He has similar numbers to Nathan Eovaldi, who just inked a $75MM deal for ages 35-37.
One complicating factor: Castillo’s deal includes a full no-trade clause through the end of next season. The trade protection goes away at the end of the year (though he would receive a $1MM assignment bonus if he’s traded after 2025). Kramer writes that the Mariners have informed the righty that they’re fielding more interest. The report doesn’t shed any light to which teams, if any, Castillo would approve a trade.
If he’s amenable to moving, the Mariners should be able to offload most or all of the contract while netting a legitimate return. A potential cornerstone bat like Casas is a stretch, but it’s reasonable to expect some kind of immediate lineup help. It’d also open budgetary space for the front office to add to the offense in free agency. Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times have reported that the M’s are working with around $15-20MM in payroll room; Kramer suggests the same in today’s report at MLB.com. Pushing that closer to $40MM would open a lot more opportunities for Dipoto and his staff to strengthen the corner infield.
It would be a notable hit to their rotation. Much is made of Seattle’s young starting pitching, deservedly so. The talent at the top does obscure a general lack of depth beyond their excellent front five, however. Emerson Hancock hasn’t shown much at the MLB level despite his billing as a former sixth overall pick. He has a 4.71 ERA with a 14.3% strikeout rate in 15 big league starts.
Hancock and soft-tossing lefty Jhonathan Diaz are the top depth options on the 40-man roster. The Mariners didn’t need to rely on either pitcher much in 2024. Their front five combined for all but 13 starts all season. Even if they bring back their entire rotation, it’s unlikely they’ll be quite so fortunate from an injury perspective. Trading Castillo would almost certainly necessitate a rotation acquisition, either in that trade or via subsequent free agent pickup. One need only look at how quickly the Marlins’ starting pitching has been depleted over the past two seasons as an example of the risk for teams in believing they have a rotation surplus. That’s no doubt a factor in Seattle’s general unwillingness to listen on their younger arms.
Cohen: Mets “Still Engaged” With Alonso
At this afternoon’s presser to introduce Juan Soto, Mets owner Steve Cohen said the team is “still engaged” with Pete Alonso (link via Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic). That comes a few days after baseball operations president David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the team would “love to bring Pete back.”
There hasn’t been much public chatter about Alonso’s free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that Alonso would have interest in joining the Yankees if the Mets don’t make a serious push to retain him. Ties between the Yanks and Alonso have been fairly loose, though, as reports have cast them as stronger suitors for Christian Walker. Beyond the New York teams, chatter about the Alonso market has been speculative. The Nationals and Giants are among the teams that could use an impact bat at first base, but there’s no firm indication they’ve been involved.
Alonso declined a qualifying offer last month. Aside from the Mets, every team would forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space to add him. The Mets would relinquish the right to receive a compensatory pick, but that’d only come after the fourth round if he walked. It’s a minimal barrier.
The slugger is coming off a relative down year. Alonso hit .240/.329/.459, the first time in his career he’s had an OPS below .800. His 34 home runs is a personal low over a full season. It’s not an ideal time for his production to dip, but there’s obvious value in a player whose floor is a 30+ homer showing. Alonso has been incredibly durable and started 160 games this past season. He heated up in the postseason, hitting .273/.431/.568 with four homers over 13 games.
As MLBTR explored in a post for Front Office subscribers last month, Alonso is a tricky free agent to value. His reputation could lead his camp to seek a deal approaching or topping Matt Olson ($168MM) and Freddie Freeman ($162MM with deferrals). Front offices have increasingly devalued this general profile, though. Alonso has limited defensive and baserunning value, while his average and on-base percentage are middling.
Stearns preferred not to invest heavily at first base during his time leading baseball operations with the Brewers. Milwaukee ran payrolls that were a fraction of what the Mets do under Cohen, of course, so that’s not necessarily an indication of how Stearns will operate in Queens. Even after paying Soto a record $51MM average annual value, New York has an estimated luxury tax payroll around $252MM (via RosterResource). That’ll probably end up north of $300MM by the end of the offseason. They could certainly accommodate Alonso financially. New York also needs to add at least one starter and will probably deepen the bullpen via another acquisition or two.
Giants Re-Sign Ethan Small, Kai-Wei Teng To Minor League Deals
The Giants brought back pitchers Ethan Small and Kai-Wei Teng on minor league contracts last month (h/t to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy). San Francisco had dropped both players from the 40-man roster at the non-tender deadline.
Neither player had been eligible for arbitration. The non-tender deadline allowed the Giants to cut them both loose before circling back with minor league offers. They’ll keep both in the organization without carrying them on the 40-man roster.
Small, a former Milwaukee first-round pick, landed with the Giants in a DFA trade in February. The 27-year-old southpaw spent most of the season on the injured list. He didn’t pitch in the big leagues with San Francisco. Small was limited to 13 minor league innings over three levels. His major league résumé consists of four MLB appearances in Milwaukee between 2022-23. During his most recent healthy year in the minors, he turned in a 3.18 ERA through 51 Triple-A frames two seasons ago.
Teng, 26, made his first four MLB appearances this year. He allowed 12 runs over 11 innings. The Taiwanese righty had a terrible ’24 season in Triple-A as well. Teng allowed nearly a run per inning across 75 1/3 frames. The 6’4″ righty posted strong strikeout and ground-ball numbers in the low minors but has struggled with his command throughout his career.
Rangers Designate Roansy Contreras For Assignment
The Rangers designated right-hander Roansy Contreras for assignment. Texas needed to open a 40-man roster spot after finalizing their free agent deals with Jacob Webb and Nathan Eovaldi.
Contreras departs the Texas roster within six weeks. The Rangers grabbed him off waivers from the Angels in the opening days of the offseason. There was always a decent chance that he wouldn’t stick on the roster all winter. He’ll either be traded or, more likely, placed back on waivers within the next few days.
The 25-year-old was once regarded as one of the game’s better pitching prospects. Initially a Yankee farmhand, he was a key piece of the package that New York sent to the Pirates for Jameson Taillon. Contreras had a decent debut season with the Pirates in 2022, turning in a 3.79 ERA across 95 innings. He looked like a long-term rotation piece at the time, but his production has dropped sharply over the last two seasons.
Contreras struggled to an ERA near 7.00 across 68 1/3 MLB frames in 2023. He exhausted his last minor league option that year. The Pirates carried him in the season-opening bullpen in ’24. He pitched 12 times in medium-leverage spots before the Bucs took him off the roster. They dealt him to the Angels for cash in May. Contreras played out the year with the Halos in a long relief role, posting a 4.33 ERA with subpar peripherals in 37 appearances.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Contreras owns a 5.47 earned run average over 136 2/3 innings. His 18.5% strikeout percentage and 10.5% walk rate are worse than the respective MLB averages, as is his 1.4 home runs allowed per nine. The performance and the inability to send him to the minors without putting him on waivers could lead to him bouncing around the league. Contreras should still intrigue teams as a depth arm, as he sits around 95 MPH with his four-seam fastball and throws six different pitches.
Juan Soto’s Hall Of Fame Track
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Juan Soto’s free agency was the offseason’s biggest storyline for good reason. It concluded Sunday evening with a colossal 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, which is now official. Soto brings with him a résumé that’ll almost certainly send him to Cooperstown in a couple decades.
Soto wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow. He doesn’t have the requisite 10 seasons of major league action for consideration and he obviously hasn’t accrued HOF-caliber counting stats in just seven years. Yet he’s about as much of a lock for future induction as a player can possibly get by the time he turns 26.
The accolades are already beginning to stack up. Soto has yet to win an MVP award, but he’s finished in the top 10 in five of his six full seasons. He has a trio of top five placements. He’s been named to the All-Star Game four years running and would’ve gotten a fifth nod had the Midsummer Classic been played in 2020. Soto carries an ongoing streak of five consecutive Silver Slugger awards.
The statistical profile is eye-popping. Through his first 936 career games, Soto is a .285/.421/.532 hitter. The .953 OPS puts him in rarified air. Soto is tied with Todd Helton for 23rd on the career OPS leaderboard. That was enough to get Helton, who played his home games at Coors Field at a time when offense was much higher around the league, into Cooperstown. Helton had a career 133 OPS+ after adjusting for the park and league setting. Soto is rocking a 160 OPS+ despite the identical raw slash line.
Players with this kind of rate production are locks for the Hall of Fame unless they taint their case with performance-enhancing drug ties. 19 of the top 25 hitters in career OPS are Hall of Famers. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Soto are still playing. The only retired hitters among that group who aren’t in Cooperstown: Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Mark McGwire. Needless to say, they’re not excluded because their numbers weren’t good enough.
A .953 OPS is well above the general bar for induction. Most players who are in the top 100 are Hall of Famers. Landing among the top 75 makes a hitter a near-lock (barring PED connections). Even if Soto lost .050 points of OPS over the rest of his career — which seems unlikely — he’d still be above the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.
Any kind of precipitous drop shouldn’t happen soon. There are plenty of Hall of Famers whose production plummeted in the final three to five seasons of their careers. Even if Soto doesn’t avoid that fate, the short-term numbers are more likely to continue climbing than fall. He’s arguably at the beginning of his prime. This past season was probably the best full season of his career. He topped 40 homers for the first time, finished one RBI off his career high, and set a new best with 7.9 wins above replacement (bWAR). Soto’s rate stats were unquestionably better in the shortened 2020 season, but this was as effective as he’s been over any 162-game schedule.
Youth was one of the biggest selling points in his record-setting free agent trip. Very few hitters have been this productive through their mid-20s. Soto has 201 career homers, tied for seventh all time through a player’s age-25 season. He’s 15th in runs batted in through the same age. Among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances before their 26th birthday, Soto is 12th in on-base percentage. Of the 11 players above him, only Frank Thomas has played in the last 50 years. This kind of plate discipline so early in a hitter’s career is truly generational.
Cardinals Granted Fourth Option On Zack Thompson
The Cardinals will get some extra roster flexibility. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reported yesterday (on X) that St. Louis was granted a fourth option on left-hander Zack Thompson.
After a player is added to the 40-man roster, they can typically be assigned to the minors in three seasons. If a player who is on the 40-man spends at least 20 days in the minors during a season, that subtracts one of those years. In certain circumstances, teams are allowed to option a player for a fourth season.
A player is eligible for a fourth option if they exhaust their three option years before they’ve played five professional seasons. MLB defines a professional season as one in which a player spent at least 90 days on an MLB or minor league active roster. Many players will spend a few years with a minor league affiliate before they’re added to a 40-man roster. As those count as professional seasons but are not option years, most players reach five seasons prior to running out of options.
Thompson was St. Louis’ first-round pick in 2019. The Cardinals assigned him to their rookie ball affiliate that year. That league didn’t have a 90-day schedule, so that did not count as a professional season. The following minor league season was canceled by the pandemic. As a result, the southpaw didn’t accrue a full professional season until 2021. The Cardinals put him on the 40-man roster the following year. Thompson was optioned in each of the last three years but falls shy of five professional seasons.
The 27-year-old Thompson has yet to find much MLB success. He owns a 4.50 earned run average across 52 appearances. After turning in a 2.08 ERA as a rookie, he allowed 4.48 earned runs per nine in ’23. Thompson only made five MLB appearances this past season. He was rocked for 18 runs in 17 innings.
That would’ve made it difficult for the Cards to justify carrying him in the Opening Day bullpen. There’s a solid chance Thompson would’ve landed on waivers if were out of options. Instead, the Cardinals can send him back to Triple-A Memphis for one more year. He started 20 of 21 appearances there this year, posting a 4.90 ERA while striking out 27.4% of opponents over 90 innings.
Marlins Hire Derek Shomon As Assistant Hitting Coach
The Marlins are hiring Derek Shomon as assistant hitting coach, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. The 34-year-old had previously held that role in Minnesota.
Shomon had a brief professional playing career in the independent ranks. He took a coaching role in the Minnesota system and worked his way up the ladder. He joined Rocco Baldelli’s staff going into 2023. Shomon had that job for two years. Minnesota moved on from its entire hitting staff after the offense collapsed late in the ’24 season as the Twins missed the playoffs. They parted with lead hitting coach David Popkins and both assistants, Shomon and Rudy Hernandez.
Miami hired Pedro Guerrero as hitting coach under first-year skipper Clayton McCullough. The Fish have also added bench coach Carson Vitale and pitching coach Daniel Moskos. They’ve yet to announce the full staff.
No Recent Contract Talks Between Braves, Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton is still deciding whether to return for an 18th big league season, according to The Athletic’s Jayson Stark. If he does choose to play, the righty may need to find a new landing spot after four years with the Braves.
Stark’s colleague David O’Brien writes that Morton and the Braves have not had any recent contract talks. Atlanta and Morton had preliminary discussions shortly after the postseason, but it appears the team has pivoted to other targets as they look for outfield and pitching help. Morton is open to pitching elsewhere, though O’Brien writes that the two-time All-Star prefers teams that host Spring Training near his home in Bradenton, Florida. In addition to Atlanta, the Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, Pirates and Tigers are among the teams that could fit that description.
Morton played this past season on a $20MM club option. Even in a strong pitching market, he’ll probably need to take a reduction this winter. Morton turned in back-of-the-rotation results over 30 starts. He worked to a 4.19 ERA across 165 1/3 innings. Morton struck out 23.8% of batters faced with a 46.3% ground-ball percentage. While that was his strongest grounder rate since 2021, his strikeouts have dropped in consecutive seasons. Morton fanned 25.6% of opponents in 2023 and posted a 28.2% strikeout rate back in ’22.
The velocity and swinging strike rate have also gone backwards slightly. Morton averaged roughly 94 MPH on his fastball and posted an 11.4% swinging strike rate. Both numbers are solid but below his 2021-23 production. Those yellow flags started to catch up to him as the season progressed. Morton carried a 4.07 ERA into the All-Star Break. He allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine while opponents hit .279/.357/.469 in the second half.
None of that is to say that Morton isn’t still a solid pitcher. There’s value in a veteran who can top 150 innings with roughly league average results. Even if he projects more as a #4/5 starter than the mid-rotation arm he’s been for most of his career, he could land something like the $13MM which Kyle Gibson got last winter.
That could be beyond Atlanta’s comfort zone financially. The Braves pushed close to the third tier of luxury tax penalization this year, their second straight season paying the tax. It doesn’t appear they’re inclined to match that spending level next season. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $217MM, including arbitration estimates. That puts them around $24MM shy of the base threshold.
Atlanta could look to limbo under the tax line to reset their status and avoid the escalating penalties levied on repeat payors. That doesn’t appear to be a firm mandate, however. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves would be willing to pay the tax again under certain circumstances. “It’s just a percentage you’re going up. It’s for every dollar over. You’re aware of it, but it doesn’t stop you from doing anything,” he said (link via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). “If the right opportunity presents itself, we’ll do it.”
That said, Atlanta’s start to the winter has been quiet. They restructured deals for Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López to move some money back to future seasons. The Braves dumped Jorge Soler’s salary for no return, as they ended up non-tendering the player they acquired (Griffin Canning). Atlanta seemingly made little effort to retain Max Fried, nor is there any indication they made a serious play for speculative target Willy Adames. Their only MLB acquisitions thus far are split deals for Carlos D. Rodriguez and Connor Gillispie.
The Braves have almost never been free agent spenders under Anthopoulos. They’ve made much more of an impact on the trade market. Perhaps there’s another such move on the horizon, but they could also be relying on internal rotation options to step up after losing Fried and Morton.
Chris Sale will lead the staff on the heels of his first Cy Young win. López and Spencer Schwellenbach slot behind him as a strong 2-3 combination. Spencer Strider isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, but he could return from his internal brace procedure within the season’s first half. The back of the staff is questionable. Ian Anderson hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2022. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep struggled with their command in the minors. Bryce Elder performed well in Triple-A but was rocked for a 6.52 ERA in 10 major league starts.
That could open a rotation opportunity for Grant Holmes depending on how the remainder of the offseason progresses. The 28-year-old righty pitched mostly in relief this year, working to a 3.56 ERA over 26 MLB appearances (seven starts). Anthopoulos said this week that the Braves were intrigued by the possibility for Holmes to grab a rotation job in Spring Training. “He’s someone that we’d like to find out what he can do, because we do think there’s significant upside there if he can get a starting spot,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “But again, that won’t stop us from either trading for or signing any starter.”
Mets Willing To Pay Down Salary To Facilitate Starling Marte Trade
The Mets are open to paying down part of Starling Marte’s contract to facilitate a trade, write Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic. There’s nothing to suggest a deal is imminent or guaranteed to happen at all, but the Mets could consider the veteran outfielder expandable.
After finalizing the Juan Soto signing, New York has an excellent outfield. Soto and Brandon Nimmo will play the corners. Tyrone Taylor had a nice first season in Queens and projects as the starter in center field. The Mets acquired defensive stalwart Jose Siri from the Rays last month. He’s a quality fourth outfielder who could cut into Taylor’s playing time up the middle.
The Mets don’t necessarily need to trade Marte. They’re willing to pay to stockpile depth under Steve Cohen’s ownership. Yet he’s probably fifth on their outfield depth chart and doesn’t have a great path to playing time. He’s no longer an option in center field at age 36. The Mets probably wouldn’t move Nimmo back to center field to force Marte into the lineup.
An outfield of Marte, Nimmo, and Soto would be limited defensively. The two-time All-Star would essentially be limited to a rotational corner role. He could pick up some at-bats at designated hitter, though the Mets are likely to add a first baseman and may want to leave DH playing time for some combination of Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and (if he’s not traded) Brett Baty. Marte doesn’t have the kind of power teams generally want from their primary DH regardless.
To find a taker, the Mets would need to eat a decent chunk of money. Marte is under contract for $19.5MM in the final season of a four-year free agent pact. If he were a free agent, he’d probably make a little less than half that. He’s coming off a league average .269/.327/.388 showing with seven homers through 370 plate appearances. Marte stole 16 bases in 17 attempts, though his defensive grades in right field have plummeted. His once elite speed is essentially average at this point. A bone bruise in his right knee cost him around seven weeks between June and August.
Marte is probably stretched as a regular, but there are teams that could give him more opportunity than the Mets can offer. Speculatively speaking, the Red Sox may be a fit as they search for a righty-hitting outfielder. The Guardians, Padres, Astros, Royals, Reds and Marte’s old team in Pittsburgh are other teams that could be in the market for corner outfield help.
Red Sox Acquire Carlos Narvaez From Yankees
The Red Sox acquired catcher Carlos Narváez from the Yankees for minor league pitcher Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz and international bonus pool space. Boston designated infielder Enmanuel Valdez for assignment to open the necessary 40-man roster spot.
Narváez, 26, is a depth catcher who has been on New York’s 40-man roster since last offseason. The Venezuela native reached the majors for the first time in July. He appeared in six games, collecting three singles and two walks in 15 plate appearances. Narváez had a good year in Triple-A, hitting .254/.370/.412 with 20 doubles and 11 home runs through 403 plate appearances. He walked at an excellent 13.9% clip while striking out 26.1% of the time.
The righty-hitting Narváez strikes out a lot, but he walks enough to reach base at a solid rate. Connor Wong was the only catcher on Boston’s 40-man roster. Narváez is now the favorite for the backup job by default, though the Sox will probably look for a more established veteran in the coming months. Narváez has a pair of minor league options and could begin next season at Triple-A Worcester.
New York had five catchers on the 40-man roster. Austin Wells and Jose Trevino form the MLB duo. J.C. Escarra, who finished the season in Triple-A, secured a 40-man spot at the end of the season. Carrying Narváez and Escarra was redundant, so the Yanks cash in the former to take a flier on a young pitcher.
Rodriguez-Cruz, 21, was Boston’s fourth-round pick three years ago. The 6’3″ righty has worked as a starter in the low minors. Rodriguez-Cruz had a nice season between Low-A and High-A, working to a 2.91 ERA with a 27.2% strikeout percentage across 89 2/3 innings. The Puerto Rico native issued free passes at a lofty 11.5% clip. He’ll need to dial in his command if he’s to stick as a starter. He’s an intriguing developmental flier for the Yankees to land for a player who was at the back of the roster.
New York also picks up an undisclosed amount of money it can use to sign an international amateur before the end of the signing period on Sunday. To be clear, the signing bonus space is unrelated to Roki Sasaki. The Japanese star will be part of next year’s amateur class. Teams cannot trade for 2025 bonus allotments until that signing period begins on January 15.
Valdez gets pushed off the roster after a disappointing season. The lefty-hitting infielder posted a .214/.270/.363 slash with six homers through 223 plate appearances. That’s a big drop from last year’s intriguing .266/.311/.453 showing over 49 games as a rookie. Valdez spent a good portion of the season in Worcester, where he had a league average .233/.330/.446 line in 50 contests.
Boston has five days to trade Valdez or put him on waivers. He still has a minor league option remaining and has a career .254/.345/.473 line over parts of three Triple-A seasons. Between that and his ability to bounce between second and third base, there’s a good chance he’ll find a new home within the next week.