Mets Remain In Contact With J.D. Martinez
February 7: Andy Martino of SNY wrote this afternoon that while the Mets have indeed stayed in touch with Martinez, there’s still a significant gap between the sides financially.
February 6: The Mets have had continued dialogue with J.D. Martinez’s camp at the Boras Corporation, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (X link). There’s no indication a deal is close or necessarily likely, but New York continues to evaluate the market for veteran hitters.
Last week, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported the Mets were leaning towards relying on young bats like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos at the designated hitter spot. That came with the caveat that New York was amenable to jumping into the fray for a veteran free agent if the player’s asking price fell into the club’s comfort zone. It seems the front office is keeping in contact with Martinez regarding that possibility.
Martinez and Jorge Soler are the top unsigned DH options. While the latter has reportedly had recent discussions with the Giants, there’s not yet an agreement between the two sides. The Mets have only been loosely tied to Soler this offseason, while their reported interest in Martinez dates back to December.
A six-time All-Star, Martinez is coming off a strong year with the Dodgers. He connected on 33 home runs over 479 trips to the plate. His .271/.321/.572 batting line was his best since 2019. In a typical offseason, he might have received the qualifying offer from Los Angeles. The Dodgers knew they were preparing for a pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, so they didn’t chance a QO that could’ve tied up more than $20MM on another DH. Once Ohtani agreed to sign with L.A., that forced Martinez to look for a third team in as many years.
There are some concerns with Martinez, even as he profiles as one of the best offensive players still available. He’ll turn 37 in August and is essentially limited to DH. Martinez was never a good defensive outfielder and has only started one game in left field over the last two seasons.
Last year’s power resurgence also came at the cost of a few more whiffs. Martinez punched out in a personal-high 31.1% of his plate appearances. He only made contact on 67.5% of his swings, the lowest rate of his career. So long as he continues hitting the ball as hard as he did a year ago, the strikeouts aren’t a huge concern. They don’t leave much margin for error if he loses any bat speed, however.
During his last free agent trip, Martinez inked a fairly modest $10MM contract. That was below general expectations and it seemed as if he took a discount to go to L.A., where he reunited with his previous hitting instructor (and current Dodger hitting coach) Robert Van Scoyoc. His camp could look for a two-year deal this time around. Even if he’s limited to one-year offers, Martinez should surpass the $12.5MM that the Diamondbacks guaranteed Joc Pederson and could look to exceed the $23.5MM which Teoscar Hernández secured from the Dodgers.
The Mets are taxed at a 110% rate for any further spending. They’re well into the fourth tier of luxury penalization and facing the highest penalties as a third-time repeat payor. Steve Cohen’s ownership tenure has been marked by a willingness to spend, but the organization has taken a more targeted approach to free agency during David Stearns’ first offseason as baseball operations president. They’re trying to strike a balance of remaining on the border of playoff contention in 2024 while looking to ’25 as their target for a renewed full-fledged push.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Blue Jays
Arbitrators ruled in favor of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in his hearing versus the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). The slugging first baseman will be paid at the $19.9MM rate sought by his camp at PRIME. The team had submitted an $18.05MM filing figure.
Guerrero’s arbitration case was the most significant of any this offseason. Of the players who went to a hearing, he’s in line for easily the highest salary. The $1.85MM gap between his filing figure and the team’s proposed rate was the second-largest of the offseason; there’s a $1.9MM spread between the Rangers’ and Adolis García’s submissions.
This is the third of four trips through the process for the three-time All-Star. Guerrero racked up huge earnings early in the process. That’s partially because he qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player during the 2021-22 offseason. It’s also a reflection of the monster numbers he posted early in his career, particularly during the ’21 campaign. Guerrero’s MVP runner-up season led to a hefty $7.9MM agreement for 2022. He and the Jays settled on a $14.5MM deal last winter but couldn’t find a mutually agreeable price point this time around.
That nevertheless works out well for Guerrero, who secures a $5.4MM raise relative to last season. While he’s coming off a good year, his production wasn’t what he or the team envisioned from one of the sport’s most talented offensive players. Guerrero hit 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .264/.345/.444 batting line over 682 plate appearances.
Toronto’s projected payroll sits in the $240MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’ll go through the arbitration process with Guerrero once again next offseason. Winning his case this year establishes the platform for next winter’s discussions higher — a player’s previous salaries is a key factor in setting arbitration prices — and he’ll hit free agency in advance of his age-27 season.
Guerrero was the only Toronto player going to a hearing this winter. Players around the league have been victorious in six consecutive hearings after teams won the first two. There are 10 cases still pending.
Nationals, Stephen Nogosek Agree To Minor League Deal
The Nationals are signing reliever Stephen Nogosek to a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). He returns to the NL East, where he has spent the bulk of his career as a member of the Mets.
Nogosek, 29, was drafted by the Red Sox in 2016. Boston traded the Oregon product to New York the following deadline as part of a prospect package for veteran reliever Addison Reed. Nogosek pitched in parts of four seasons in Queens. He made a career-high 13 appearances last year, posting a 5.61 ERA in 25 2/3 innings. The Mets designated him for assignment in June.
The right-hander caught on with the Diamondbacks on a minor league deal. As is the case for most pitchers, he struggled with Arizona’s Triple-A team in Reno. Nogosek was tagged for a 6.55 ERA across 33 innings for the Aces and didn’t get an MLB look from the eventual NL champions.
Rough stint in Reno aside, Nogosek has a generally solid track record at the top minor league level. He has allowed 3.76 earned runs per nine in 143 2/3 Triple-A frames. Nogosek has punched out 27.3% of Triple-A opponents, although he has also issued walks at a lofty 11.9% clip. He has roughly average strikeout and walk numbers in his 57 1/3 MLB innings, in which he has posted a 5.02 ERA.
Washington had a below-average bullpen a year ago, making them a decent landing spot for relievers looking to get back to the majors on minor league deals. Nogosek joins Richard Bleier and Robert Gsellman as recent non-roster signees.
Marlins Acquire Jonah Bride, Designate Jordan Groshans
The Marlins announced the acquisition of infielder Jonah Bride from the A’s in exchange for cash. Miami designated fellow infielder Jordan Groshans for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot. Oakland had DFA Bride when they traded for Ross Stripling last week.
Bride, 28, has been with the A’s since they selected him in the 23rd round of the 2018 draft. The right-handed hitter has never been a highly-regarded prospect but has generally hit well in the minors. He owns a .288/.400/.459 line over the course of his minor league career. That includes a .322/.450/.553 slash over 401 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
While Oakland’s affiliate plays in one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly settings in Las Vegas, Bride’s production has been built around his strong strike zone awareness. He has walked in 17.2% of his Triple-A plate appearances while striking out at a modest 15.2% clip. That earned him looks at the major league level in each of the last two seasons, where he hasn’t found anywhere near the same level of success.
Bride is a .192/.296/.232 hitter over 98 MLB contests. He has walked at a strong 10.2% rate against a lower than average 18.2% strikeout percentage. He hasn’t done any kind of damage on contact, however. Bride has one homer and seven doubles in 293 plate appearances.
Primarily a third baseman, Bride also has experience at first and second base. He briefly dabbled with catching in the minors in 2022 but played exclusively on the infield last year. Bride has never played shortstop, so he won’t offer any cover at that position of need for Miami. He offers depth at any of the other infield spots and still has a minor league option remaining, so the Fish can send him to Triple-A Jacksonville next season without placing him on waivers.
The acquisition bumps Groshans off the roster, a disappointing development for the former first-round draftee. Selected by the Blue Jays, he was dealt to Miami at the 2022 deadline for relievers Anthony Bass and Zach Pop. Groshans made a brief MLB debut later that season, appearing in 17 games. He hit .262/.308/.311 in 65 trips to the plate.
Miami kept Groshans in Triple-A on optional assignment for all of last season. He had a lackluster .243/.339/.330 slash with six homers in 528 plate appearances. As with Bride, Groshans posted solid walk (12.5%) and strikeout (17.4%) numbers but made minimal power impact. First-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix evidently feels Bride has a better chance of translating that approach into some amount of big league success. The Marlins have a week to trade the 24-year-old Groshans or try to run him through waivers.
Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase first reported the Marlins were acquiring Bride. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Jacob Webb Wins Arbitration Hearing Over Orioles
Reliever Jacob Webb prevailed in his arbitration hearing against the Orioles, as first reported by Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link). He’ll make the $1MM sought by his camp at KHG Sports Management as opposed to the team’s $925K filing figure.
Webb has only spent a couple months in Baltimore. The O’s snagged him off waivers from the Angels in early August. The 30-year-old righty had a strong finish to the season, turning in a 3.27 ERA through 22 innings. He finished the season with a personal-high 53 2/3 frames between the two clubs. Webb struck out nearly a quarter of batters faced and worked to a 3.69 ERA behind an excellent 15.1% swinging strike rate.
Control remained an issue, as Webb walked almost 13% of opposing hitters. He hasn’t had great command at any point in his career, but he’s generally found success regardless. Webb has a sub-3.00 ERA in 130 1/3 big league frames between Atlanta, Los Angeles and Baltimore. That seems likely to earn him a spot in the season-opening relief group for the Orioles. Webb is out of options, so the O’s would need to trade him or put him on waivers if they decide not to carry him on the big league roster.
Teammate Austin Hays also won his hearing against the O’s this afternoon. Tuesday marked a strong day for the players on the arbitration side. In addition to Webb and Hays, Mauricio Dubón, Taylor Ward and Phil Bickford all came out ahead. After teams won the first two arbitration cases last week, the players have won five straight. Baltimore has one unresolved case. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn is seeking a $3.8MM salary, while the team countered at $3.2MM.
Phil Bickford Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Mets
Reliever Phil Bickford won his arbitration hearing against the Mets, as first reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post (X link). His camp at ET Sports successfully argued for a $900K salary; the team had filed at $815K.
New York acquired Bickford in a minor deadline trade with the Dodgers. He threw 25 1/3 innings down the stretch, working to a 4.62 ERA. The former first-round pick fanned around a quarter of opponents against an elevated 11.4% walk rate. Those were similar strikeout and walk marks as he managed in Los Angeles. He finished the year with a 4.95 mark over a career-high 67 1/3 innings.
The 28-year-old Bickford has topped 50 innings in three consecutive seasons. After working to a 2.81 ERA for the Brewers in 2021, he has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in each of the past two years. The Mets nevertheless tendered him a contract even as they’ve brought in various relievers this offseason. Bickford is out of options, so they’ll need to keep him in the big league bullpen or put him on waivers.
DL Hall Planning To Compete For Rotation Role With Brewers
The Brewers acquired hard-throwing lefty DL Hall alongside infielder Joey Ortiz from the Orioles in last week’s Corbin Burnes blockbuster. While GM Matt Arnold was noncommittal about Hall’s role in a chat with reporters in the immediate aftermath of the trade, the 25-year-old indicated the organization views him as a starting pitcher.
“When they called me, they asked me how my training had been going, what I was preparing for. Luckily, I was preparing to be a starter. They want me to be a starter,” Hall said in an appearance on Foul Territory yesterday afternoon (YouTube link).
That the Brewers still view Hall as a rotation fit isn’t surprising. If Milwaukee felt the 6’2″ southpaw was unlikely to stick as a starter, they might not have made him one of two key pieces in a return for their ace. That’s not a unanimous opinion among evaluators, however. Some scouting reports on Hall indicate he’s a better fit for the bullpen because of well below-average control.
Over parts of six seasons in the minors, Hall has walked 13.4% of opposing hitters. He handed out free passes at a similarly concerning 13.8% clip over 49 innings for Triple-A Norfolk a year ago. Hall worked in an abbreviated starting capacity early in the Triple-A season, typically going four to five innings in an appearance. He pitched in a traditional single-inning relief role there late in the year, aligning with his usage at the MLB level.
Other than a 3 2/3-inning start in his major league debut in August 2022, Hall has pitched exclusively as a reliever in the majors. He has a 4.36 ERA in 29 appearances, striking out 29% of batters faced. The former first-round pick has shown better control in that limited big league sample, walking a league average 7.6% of his opponents.
Expecting Hall to maintain a sub-8% walk rate over a full season as a starter is likely too optimistic given his minor league numbers. He will very likely need to cut his walks from the minor league levels if he’s to stick as a starter. Only two MLB pitchers logged at least 100 innings while walking more than 13% of opponents a year ago.
One of them, Blake Snell, won the Cy Young, so it’s not impossible to thrive with this kind of scattershot control. It requires absolutely dominating hitters when the pitcher is around the strike zone, though, with Snell fanning over 31% of opponents and holding batters to a pitiful .180 average. (The other pitcher with 100+ innings and a walk rate above 13% was Michael Kopech, who had a 5.43 ERA.) Hall is credited by prospect evaluators with as many as four plus or better pitches. He has the potential to overpower opponents, but he’d have to walk a very tight rope if he doesn’t get the free passes in check.
It’s worth noting that Hall’s comments about competing for a rotation spot came before Milwaukee agreed to a $7MM deal with free agent righty Jakob Junis last night. Even with Junis expected to take a season-opening rotation spot, it’s unlikely Milwaukee’s usage plans for Hall are any different. The Brewers still have one or two jobs up for grabs behind Freddy Peralta, Junis, and Wade Miley. Hall joins righties Colin Rea and Joe Ross and southpaws Aaron Ashby and Robert Gasser in that competition. Prospects Carlos Rodriguez and Jacob Misiorowski could pitch their way into the mix during the season.
Hall still has one option year remaining. The Brewers can move him between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville for another season if he doesn’t stake a claim to a permanent rotation role on Opening Day.
Phillies Acquire Michael Rucker, Designate Andrew Bellatti For Assignment
The Phillies announced Tuesday they’ve acquired reliever Michael Rucker from the Cubs in exchange for cash. He’d been designated for assignment by Chicago last week. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, the Phillies designated fellow right-hander Andrew Bellatti for assignment.
Rucker, who turns 30 in April, changes organizations for the first time. The BYU product had been a member of the Cubs since they selected him in the 11th round of the 2016 draft. After a couple seasons as a starter in the minors, he converted to relief by the 2019 campaign. Lofty strikeout tallies in the upper minors in 2019 and ’21 earned him a major league look midway through the 2021 season.
The right-hander has pitched at the MLB level in each of the past three years. He has allowed just under five earned runs per nine through 123 1/3 big league innings. Rucker allowed a near-7.00 ERA as a rookie before turning in a decent 3.95 mark across a personal-high 54 1/3 frames in 2022. Things skewed back in the wrong direction last year, as he was tagged for a 4.91 figure over 40 1/3 innings.
That led the Cubs to squeeze him off the roster when they signed veteran reliever (and former Phillie) Héctor Neris to a one-year deal. Rucker’s arm strength and reasonable peripheral numbers led Philadelphia to take a low-cost look. Rucker has punched out between 21% and 24% of opponents in each of his MLB seasons. He generated ground-balls at a personal-high 51.8% clip a year ago, although he also walked nearly 11% of batters faced. Rucker’s fastball averages just under 95 MPH and he showed some swing-and-miss upside with each of his slider and cutter last season.
Rucker also has a minor league option remaining, so the Phils can keep him at Triple-A Lehigh Valley for another season. That’s not true of Bellatti, whom he replaces on the 40-man roster. Bellatti looked like an excellent find for Philadelphia on a minor league contract heading into 2022, when he turned in a 3.31 ERA over 54 1/3 innings. He didn’t find the same level of success last year, pitching to a 5.11 mark through 24 2/3 big league frames.
The 32-year-old Bellatti posted strong results while in Triple-A a year ago. He worked to a 2.42 ERA with an above-average 25.7% strikeout percentage in 27 appearances with Lehigh Valley. The Phillies have a week to trade him or place him on waivers. Bellatti has been outrighted multiple times in his career, so he’d have the ability to elect free agency if he goes unclaimed in the coming days.
Mauricio Dubon Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Astros
Utilityman Mauricio Dubón has won an arbitration hearing against the Astros, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston. The Astros will pay the $3.5MM salary figure submitted by Dubón and his representatives at ALIGND Sports, as opposed to the $3MM sum the team had filed.
Dubón is coming off the best season of his career. He played in a personal-high 132 games and tallied almost 500 plate appearances. Dubón turned in league average results offensively, hitting .278/.309/.411 while getting into the double digits in home runs for the first time. As he has throughout his career, he consistently put the ball in play while playing essneitlaly anywhere on the diamond. Dubón struck out in fewer than 15% of his plate appearances and started multiple games at each of first base, second base, shortstop, left field and center field.
The right-handed hitter filled in effectively at the keystone early in the year when Jose Altuve was on the injured list. He moved back to his traditional utility role as the season progressed. Dubón doesn’t project as a starter at any individual position in a strong Houston lineup, but his defensive flexibility means he’ll log semi-regular playing time around the diamond.
This was his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Dubón qualified for early arbitration last winter as a Super Two player, agreeing to a $1.4MM salary for 2023. He earns a raise of more than $2MM this time and will go through the process twice more. Dubón won’t be eligible for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason, at which point he’ll be entering his age-32 campaign.
Dubón was Houston’s only arbitration-eligible player who didn’t agree to terms this offseason. Finalizing his salary pushes their 2024 payroll commitments to roughly $240MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re up to nearly $255MM in competitive balance tax obligations, just $2MM below the second penalization tier. It’s easily the highest payroll projection in franchise history as Houston pushes for another AL West triumph. With each of Dubón, Taylor Ward and Austin Hays being announced as the winners of their hearings this morning, players have been victorious in three of the first five arbitration cases.
Brewers Sign Jakob Junis
The Brewers announced that they have signed free agent righty Jakob Junis to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2025. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (X link) initially reported the deal. It’s a one-year, $7MM guarantee for the Wasserman client, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Junis will receive a $4MM salary next season and a $3MM buyout on the 2025 mutual option, which The Associated Press reports is valued at $8MM. He’s expected to open the year in Milwaukee’s starting rotation.
Junis hit the open market for the first time coming off a quietly strong platform showing. The 31-year-old pitched 86 innings over 40 appearances as a multi-inning reliever for the Giants a year ago. He turned in a personal-low 3.87 ERA while striking out an above-average 26.2% of opposing hitters. That was the best mark of his career, as was his 11.3% swinging strike rate.
An uptick in velocity played a part in his improved swing-and-miss results. Junis averaged 93.7 MPH on his sinker, above the 91-92 MPH range in which his fastball had sat for his career. He also added a tick to his slider, which clocked in at 84.2 MPH on average after sitting in the 82-83 MPH area in prior years. Adding some speed to the slider was probably more important than the extra life on the fastball. Junis uses the breaking pitch at an atypical rate.
The slider has been his primary pitch in each of the last four seasons. He pushed it to new heights in 2023, turning to the breaker nearly 63% of the time. That didn’t come at the expense of the strong control he’s shown throughout his career. He walked under 6% of opponents for the fourth time out of his five MLB seasons with 40+ innings.
As one might expect given his slider/sinker profile, Junis has been more effective against same-handed hitters. Since the start of 2022, righty batters have a .254/.297/.414 line while striking out nearly a quarter of the time against him. Left-handed bats have fanned at a modest 20.3% rate and turned in a robust .290/.341/.494 showing over that stretch.
It’s easier for a manager to navigate around those platoon issues when Junis is pitching in a relief role, even one in which he frequently works multiple innings. It could be a bigger concern as a starter, although it wouldn’t be surprising if skipper Pat Murphy tends to minimize his exposure to opposing lineups more than twice in an outing.
That’s generally how Milwaukee seems to be approaching the 2024 rotation. They’ve moved on from their pair of co-aces. Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered after the revelation he needed shoulder surgery, while Corbin Burnes was traded last week. That left the Brew Crew with Freddy Peralta as the unquestioned staff ace, followed by pitchers with varying degrees of injury or performance concerns.
Milwaukee re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea to factor into the middle of the staff. They took a flier on Joe Ross, who missed most of last season working back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Hard-throwing southpaw DL Hall came back from Baltimore in the Burnes return. Aaron Ashby is still trying to carve out a rotation role despite various injuries, including a shoulder procedure that wiped out his ’23 season. Prospects Robert Gasser, Jacob Misiorowski and Carlos Rodriguez loom in the upper minors.
It’s unlikely to be the kind of dominant rotation Milwaukee has trotted out in recent seasons, even if there’s a decent amount of intrigue with Junis, Ashby and the aforementioned collection of young pitchers. There aren’t many reliable sources of innings, which could force Murphy to lean heavily on his relief group.
The $4MM salary brings Milwaukee’s payroll projection around $105MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s approximate $119MM mark. It’s unclear whether ownership is willing to match last season’s spending level. If there’s payroll room, the roster could benefit from an additional bench bat and perhaps another left-handed reliever to pair with Hoby Milner.
MLBTR ranked Junis as the offseason’s #47 free agent, predicting a two-year, $15MM guarantee. He comes up short of that figure on a one-year deal. He’ll look to establish himself as a starter before returning to free agency next winter in advance of his age-32 season. The mutual option is essentially an accounting measure that allows the Brewers to push $3MM of the guarantee to the start of next offseason. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so Junis is very likely to head back to the market a year from now.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.