Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Designated Hitter
Over the past week, we’ve gone around the diamond with looks at the upcoming free agent class. We round out the offensive players with a look at the designated hitters.
It is obviously headlined by the two-way star who is likely to break the all-time contract record. There are a handful of accomplished veteran hitters below the market’s top free agent. Any position player can serve as the DH, of course. A number of players from the corner outfield or first base groups will see time there to give them respites from the field.
Since we’ve covered the bulk of those players in previous position previews, we’ll limit the scope of the DH class. This looks solely at players who have either tallied 200+ plate appearances as a designated hitter or taken 100+ trips to the dish while starting more games at DH than at any other position.
Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.
Top of the Class
- Shohei Ohtani (29)
Ohtani is the most fascinating free agent case in recent memory, perhaps ever. He’s a top five hitter, perhaps on his way to a second MVP award in three seasons thanks to a .304/.412/.654 batting line with an AL-leading 44 home runs. He’s a .277/.378/.585 hitter since the start of 2021. Of the 93 batters with 1500+ plate appearances in that time, Ohtani ranks eighth in on-base percentage and trails only Aaron Judge in slugging.
Judge’s $360MM contract with the Yankees stands as the largest free agent guarantee in league history. Ohtani seems likely to top it — potentially by a wide margin. He’s a slightly lesser offensive player but is more than a year younger than Judge was last offseason and, of course, has the potential to make an impact on the other side of the ball. Ohtani probably won’t pitch until 2025 after this week’s elbow surgery, but there’s no question he’ll try to get back on the mound once his elbow heals. While there’ll be some trepidation about his arm health after a second major procedure within the last five years, there’s a chance of him returning as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher in the second season of the contract.
Ohtani’s elbow injury isn’t expected to affect his availability for 2024 as a hitter. He’ll be a strict DH for the first season of the deal, an impact power presence in the middle of a lineup. By the ’25 campaign, he’ll again be the highest-upside player in the sport.
Everyday Options
- Mitch Garver (33)
Garver has mashed his way from backup catcher in Texas to primary DH. The right-handed hitter has connected on 18 home runs and owns a .268/.370/.513 slash across 309 plate appearances. Bruce Bochy has penciled him in as the DH on 47 occasions compared to 27 starts behind the dish.
This isn’t out of nowhere. Garver popped 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins back in 2019 and hit .256/.358/.517 over 68 contests two seasons ago. When healthy, he’s an excellent offensive player. Garver has had trouble staying on the field, spending some time on the injured list in five consecutive seasons. He lost most of last year to a flexor injury that required surgery and has impacted his ability to throw. At age 33, it’s fair to wonder whether he can hold up as a team’s No. 1 catcher. Yet in the role he’s playing for Texas — a primary DH who can take occasional starts behind the plate — he’s a strong contributor.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (30)
Acquired from the Jays in the Gabriel Moreno/Daulton Varsho swap, Gurriel is batting .263/.313/.475 with 24 homers across 560 plate appearances. It’s a little below the .285/.329/.468 career mark he carried into the season, but it’s broadly in line with his overall track record. Gurriel makes a lot of contact and has 20-plus homer power while rarely taking walks to keep his on-base percentage around the league-average mark.
He’s a good but not elite offensive performer who is limited to left field or DH after moonlighting as an infielder early in his career. Unlike a number of players on this list, Gurriel can handle an everyday workload in the corner outfield. Public metrics are divided on his effectiveness — DRS rates him as an excellent left fielder, while Statcast pegs him a little below average — but he has topped 700 innings in each of the past three seasons. The D-Backs’ collection of plus defensive outfielders has allowed them to deploy Gurriel as a DH 49 times, easily a career high.
- J.D. Martinez (36)
Martinez signed with the Dodgers on a $10MM free agent contract. It was a surprisingly light sum coming off a .274/.341/.448 platform season with the Red Sox. Martinez indicated he took less money than he could’ve gotten elsewhere to join an excellent L.A. roster and reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc.
It’s hard to argue with the results. Martinez has popped 30 homers and owns a .271/.325/.570 line through 442 plate appearances. A career-worst 30.8% strikeout rate is somewhat alarming, though it’s tolerable so long as Martinez is making this kind of power impact. By measure of wRC+, this has been Martinez’s best offensive season since 2019. He should field multi-year offers this winter.
- Andrew McCutchen (37)
McCutchen returned to Pittsburgh last winter as a fan favorite and veteran presence for a young core. He’s still a quality on-field contributor as well, hitting .256/.378/.397 across 473 plate appearances. The Bucs kept him mostly at DH, starting him in right field on just seven occasions. While McCutchen doesn’t have the same power he did at his peak, he still has impeccable plate discipline and serves as a consistent on-base presence in the middle of the order.
It’s highly likely Cutch will be back in the Steel City in 2024. He expressed a desire to finish his career with the Pirates when he signed there last winter. The team never seemed to consider trading him despite being out of contention at the deadline. McCutchen’s return season was cut short by a partial tear in his left Achilles. General manager Ben Cherington told reporters last week that the sides will reengage on talks about a new contract once the offseason begins.
Platoon Possibilities
- Brandon Belt (36)
Belt inked a $9.3MM free agent deal with the Blue Jays last offseason. He was coming off a middling season in his final year as a Giant that had been plagued by knee issues that required surgical repair. The Jays rolled the dice on a rebound and have been rewarded with a strong performance from the 13-year veteran.
The lefty slugger is hitting .251/.369/.470 with 16 longballs through 382 trips to the plate. While he’s striking out at a career-worst 35.1% clip, he’s walking over 15% of the time and hitting the ball with authority. The Jays have barely given him looks against left-handed pitching. He’s a “three true outcomes” platoon bat who is still a middle-of-the-order presence against right-handed starters.
- Charlie Blackmon (37)
The Rockies and Blackmon have expressed mutual interest in a reunion. That seems the likeliest course of action, though the career-long Rockie indicated he wouldn’t be opposed to going elsewhere if Colorado didn’t bring him back. Blackmon is limited to DH or right field at this point.
He’s still an effective hitter, posting a .284/.372/.444 slash with seven home runs in 376 plate appearances. Blackmon still holds his own against left-handed pitching, so he’s not a prototypical platoon bat. Teams could shield him from southpaws as a means of keeping his workload in check, though. Blackmon won’t come close to the $15MM salary he made this season, but he should get a one-year deal for a 14th big league campaign.
- Joc Pederson (32)
Pederson returned to the Giants upon accepting a qualifying offer last winter. He has again been an above-average hitter, but his offense is well down from last year’s career showing. Pederson owns a .245/.353/.434 line with 15 homers through 400 trips to the plate. That includes 52 poor plate appearances versus lefties; he’s hitting .253/.356/.456 with a strong 12.4% walk rate when holding the platoon advantage.
He has never been a threat against left-handed pitching and he’s a well below-average defender when asked to man the corner outfield. It’s a limited profile, but Pederson is very good at the thing he’s asked to do most often: hitting right-handed pitching.
Depth Types
- Willie Calhoun (29)
Calhoun got into 44 games for the Yankees, hitting .239/.309/.403 across 149 trips to the plate. He elected free agency after clearing outright waivers last month.
- Ji Man Choi (33)
Choi was an above-average hitter for the Rays from 2019-22. He has had a difficult platform year, limited to 100 plate appearances by an Achilles injury, a ribcage strain and a Lisfranc injury in his right foot. Choi has hit .170/.250/.420 with a 32% strikeout rate in 33 contests divided between Pittsburgh and San Diego.
- Nelson Cruz (43)
The Padres took a $1MM flier on Cruz last winter, hoping that his down 2022 campaign could be attributable to an eye issue that required corrective vision surgery. The seven-time All-Star was released just before the All-Star Break after hitting .245/.283/.399 in 45 games. Cruz was an elite hitter into his 40s but has slumped to a .234/.300/.376 line in just under 900 plate appearances since being dealt from the Twins to the Rays at the ’21 trade deadline. He’d need to take a minor league deal if he wants to continue playing.
- Brad Miller (34)
Miller’s two-year free agent deal with Texas didn’t work out. He hit .212/.282/.324 overall, including a .214/.328/.339 slash in 27 contests this season. A left hamstring strain ended his regular season. He could technically return for a playoff run but probably wouldn’t crack the postseason roster regardless. Miller has been a productive bat-first utility option in the past, but he’s in minor league deal territory at this point.
- AJ Pollock (36)
Pollock’s offensive productivity has collapsed over the past two seasons. He still hit left-handed pitching well a season ago but didn’t produce against pitchers of either handedness in 2023. Pollock compiled a .165/.215/.318 line in 54 contests between the Mariners and Giants and was released by San Francisco three weeks ago.
- Jesse Winker (30)
Winker once looked like an elite platoon option, mashing right-handed pitching for the Reds over his first four-plus seasons. He has never been a good defender, though, and his power has evaporated over the last two years. Winker hit .219/.344/.344 for the Mariners in 2022 and has mustered only a .199/.320/.247 slash in 61 games for the Brewers this summer. He has been out since late July because of back spasms. Winker might still find a major league deal from a club hoping for a rebound, but he’ll hit free agency coming off the worst season of his career.
Player Options
- Josh Bell (31)
Bell has a $16.5MM player option for next year. The switch-hitting first baseman/DH probably hasn’t found enough offensive consistency to pass on that sum. He’s hitting .242/.318/.413 with 21 homers in 583 trips to the plate between the Guardians and Marlins. Bell has been better for the Fish than he was with Cleveland — thanks largely to an August power barrage — but his production has dropped again this month.
He’s hitting .233/.282/.370 since the start of September. His ground-ball rate has skyrocketed to a lofty 55.6% clip. Bell has intermittently tapped into his massive raw power upside during his career. He just hasn’t consistently shown the ability to keep the ball off the ground for extended stretches.
- Matt Carpenter (38)
Carpenter is going to accept a $5.5MM player option for next season. He’s hitting .176/.322/.319 with five homers through 237 plate appearances and has had extended stretches without any game action for San Diego. The Padres hoped he’d replicate last year’s resurgent small-sample offensive showing with the Yankees. That hasn’t come to pass.
- Jorge Soler (32)
Soler has had a strong second season with the Marlins. After stumbling to a .207/.295/.400 line in the first season of a three-year free agent deal, he carries a .244/.336/.518 slash with 36 longballs through 550 plate appearances this year. He’s going to decline a $13MM player option in search of a multi-year pact as a result.
A well below-average defensive outfielder, Soler has only gotten 233 2/3 innings of right field work this season. He’s miscast as an everyday outfielder and ideally suited for primary DH work. Soler has the ability to carry a lineup when he’s going well, combining strong walk rates with top-of-the-scale power potential. He’s a streaky hitter but has 40-plus homer pop, as he has shown this season.
- Justin Turner (39)
Nearing his 39th birthday, Turner has logged a career-high 93 starts at designated hitter. That’s partially attributable to the Red Sox having Triston Casas and Rafael Devers as their corner infield tandem, though it’s also fair to presume Turner might now spend the bulk of his time as a DH.
Turner hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down offensively, however. He has connected on 23 home runs in 596 trips to the plate, running a well above-average .280/.351/.467 batting line. His modest 16.8% strikeout rate is right where it sat over his final four seasons as a Dodger, while he’s walking at an average 8.6% clip. The bulk of his power impact has come against left-handed pitching this season, but Turner still owns a quality .278/.346/.449 mark versus right-handers since the beginning of 2022. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He should easily surpass the $6.7MM difference on the open market, making this a straightforward call to decline the option.
Note: Miguel Cabrera will technically become a free agent once the Tigers decline an option for 2024. He has been excluded from this list after announcing his impending retirement.
Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field
Padres To Select Jose Espada
September 22: The Padres have now made it official, announcing they have selected Espada’s contract. Righty Nick Hernandez was optioned to open an active roster spot while Hill was transferred to the 60-day to open a 40-man spot.
September 21: The Padres will promote right-hander Jose Espada to the majors, according to an announcement from the American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen. The pitcher confirmed the news in a Spanish-language interview with Antolín Ríos of El Nuevo Día. The Padres have a full 40-man roster but a number of players (e.g. Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Tim Hill) who are out for the season and can be transferred to the 60-day injured list.
Espada, 26, gets to the majors more than eight years after entering the professional ranks. The Blue Jays selected him in the fifth round of the 2015 draft out of an academy in Puerto Rico. The 6’0″ hurler would spend four-plus seasons in the Toronto system without getting past Low-A. He went to the Red Sox in the minor league Rule 5 draft, topping out at High-A in two years there.
After qualifying for minor league free agency, Espada signed with the Milkmen. He made eight starts in the independent ranks before getting back to affiliated ball on a minor league pact with the Padres. Espada tossed 40 innings of 4.05 ERA ball in High-A down the stretch last season and held his spot with San Diego into 2023.
Espada has divided this year between Double-A San Antonio and Triple-A El Paso. Working mostly as a long reliever, he has put together a sub-3.00 ERA showing at both spots in a breakout season. Between the two affiliates, he’s allowing 2.81 earned runs per nine across 83 1/3 frames. Espada has punched out an excellent 31.4% of opposing hitters against a lofty 12.6% walk percentage.
Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in July that Espada can miss bats with both his curveball and changeup but has below-average fastball velocity. After a winding road between three organizations and indie ball, he’ll get his first look on a big league staff. Espada can work multiple innings out of the bullpen for manager Bob Melvin.
Rays Promote Junior Caminero
Sept. 22: Caminero’s promotion to the Majors has now been formally announced by the Rays. Outfielder Luke Raley was placed on the 10-day IL, opening an active roster spot, and righty Trevor Kelley was designated for assignment to make space on the 40-man roster. (You can read up on those corresponding moves here.)
Sept. 21: The Rays are calling up top infield prospect Junior Caminero, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. They’ll need to select him onto the 40-man roster, which is at capacity.
Caminero, who turned 20 years old in July, becomes the youngest player in the majors. He makes the jump directly from Double-A Montgomery, where he has spent the bulk of the 2023 campaign. Caminero began the year in High-A and was bumped to Montgomery at the end of May.
A native of the Dominican Republic, Caminero signed with Cleveland during the 2019-20 international signing period. He was playing in the Dominican Summer League when the Rays acquired him in a trade that has the potential to go down as one of the more lopsided in recent history. At the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the 2021 Rule 5 draft, Cleveland sent Caminero to Tampa Bay for right-hander Tobias Myers.
Myers posted a 6.00 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and was lost on waivers without getting to the majors. Caminero has broken through as one of the sport’s most talented young players. He reached full-season ball last season before this year’s true emergence as a top-tier prospect.
Caminero raked at a .356/.409/.685 clip in 36 High-A contests. He has barely slowed down since moving to Double-A, shredding older competition en route to a .309/.373/.548 line. The right-handed hitter has popped 31 home runs, 18 doubles and six triples over 510 cumulative trips to the dish. He has kept his strikeout rate to a lower than average 19.6%, including a meager 17.1% mark in Double-A.
Alongside the massive numbers, Caminero has impressed scouts with his physical tools. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel named him the sport’s #5 prospect last month; he also checks in fifth on the updated ranking at Baseball America. Those reports credit him with plus or better power potential, with McDaniel noting that he has a chance to be a 40-homer hitter at peak. ESPN suggests his plate approach can be a little aggressive — he’s walking at an average 8.2% clip in the minors — but there’s general agreement that Caminero could be an impact offensive player.
It’s nevertheless a bold move for the Rays to call upon him in the midst of a pennant race. He’ll obviously face a massive escalation in the quality of pitcher he’ll face down the stretch. Tampa Bay has already secured a playoff spot but has little margin for error if they’re to track down the Orioles for the AL East title and top seed in the American League. They’re a game and a half back of Baltimore after they beat the Angels and the O’s dropped their matchup with Cleveland.
Caminero has mostly split his time between third base and shortstop in the minors. Scouting reports suggest he’s likely to settle in at third base as he fills out physically. Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead are splitting the hot corner, while defensive specialist Taylor Walls is at shortstop. Walls has a dismal .170/.267/.226 batting line in the second half, so the Rays could give some reps there to Caminero if they’re in search of an offensive boost. Luke Raley is also day-to-day with a left arm issue that recently required an MRI, freeing up some designated hitter at-bats (either for Caminero directly or for Paredes if the Rays wanted to plug Caminero in at third base).
The Rays will be able to carry Caminero on the playoff roster if they decide he’s ready for October action. While he wasn’t on the 40-man roster at the start of September, he was in the organization. Teams can (and often do) petition the league for a player who wasn’t on the 40-man at the beginning of the month to get onto a postseason roster as an injury substitute.
Caminero will be paid at the MLB minimum rate and collect a couple weeks of service time. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2029 season and won’t qualify for arbitration until the 2026-27 offseason at the earliest. Future assignments back to the minor leagues could push that timeline further. Caminero will remain a rookie headed into 2024, leaving open the possibility of netting the club an extra draft choice via the Prospect Promotion Incentive if they carry him for a full service year.
Royals Outright Matt Beaty
The Royals have sent Matt Beaty outright to Triple-A Omaha, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. The left-handed hitter was designated for assignment on Tuesday.
Beaty appeared in 26 games after re-signing with K.C. on a minor league pact in June. He’d also signed with the Royals in Spring Training before being traded to the Giants on Opening Day. San Francisco immediately called him up but only played him four times before waiving him. After going unclaimed, Beaty chose free agency and circled back to Kansas City.
In 67 trips to the plate, Beaty hit .232/.358/.304. He walked six times with 12 strikeouts but only had four extra-base hits, all of which were doubles. Beaty is best suited for first base or a corner outfield position, putting extra pressure on his bat.
The former 12th-round draftee posted above-average offensive numbers in a part-time role with the Dodgers from 2019-21. He hit .262/.333/.425 in 240 contests. Los Angeles nevertheless DFA him before the start of the 2022 campaign. Beaty hasn’t hit well in scattered looks over the two seasons since then. He’s a .173/.271/.240 hitter in 119 big league plate appearances since the Dodgers dealt him.
Beaty has the right to again test free agency. He’d be a minor league free agent at the beginning of the offseason anyhow unless the Royals add him back to the roster.
MLBTR Poll: Michael Wacha’s Option
Among last winter’s notable free agents, few remained unsigned as long as Michael Wacha. The veteran right-hander was on the market until mid-February. He eventually inked a four-year, $26MM guarantee to join the Padres, although the contract structure was rather complex.
Wacha was guaranteed $7.5MM for this season between his salary and a signing bonus. (He subsequently earned an additional $500K for starting 20 games.) This winter, the Padres will have to decide whether to trigger successive $16MM options — essentially a two-year, $32MM pact. If the Friars decline, Wacha would have a $6.5MM player option for next season (with two additional $6MM player options thereafter). If neither side exercises its end of the option, he’d return to free agency.
The 32-year-old’s production is quite similar to last year’s work. After posting a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts for the Red Sox a year ago, he’s allowed 3.44 earned runs per nine over 22 appearances this season. As was the case last season, estimators like FIP (4.02) and SIERA (4.49) are less enthused than his ERA would suggest. That reflects fine but unexceptional strikeout and walk marks. Wacha’s 22.2% strikeout percentage and 8.2% walk rate are right in line with the respective 22.1% and 7.9% league averages for starting pitchers.
Last season, Wacha had slightly lower than average strikeout and walk figures. His fastball speed has dipped from 93 MPH to 91.8 MPH, though he’s compensated by leaning a little more on his cutter and changeup. His overall swinging-strike rate is up one percentage point.
Those are minor changes. In aggregate, Wacha looks largely the same as he did a season ago. The market didn’t seem to materialize the way he’d anticipated last winter, leading to his extended free agent stay. It’s possible teams are more inclined to buy into Wacha’s stronger bottom line results after a second sub-3.50 ERA showing, though his production has tailed off down the stretch.
He carried a 2.84 ERA over 85 2/3 innings into the All-Star Break. He’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine in 34 2/3 frames in the second half. Wacha’s strikeout and ground-ball rates have improved as the season has gone on, but he has paired that with a few more walks of late. His production also tailed off in the second half of the 2022 campaign, when he posted a 4.11 ERA after running a 2.69 mark through the break.
The Padres’ call on a two-year, $32MM option looks as if it could go either way. There were a handful of veteran pitchers who signed in that range last winter. Nathan Eovaldi got $34MM over two seasons from the Rangers, who also surrendered a draft choice after he declined a qualifying offer. Eovaldi had pitched to a 3.80 ERA over 291 2/3 innings in the preceding two seasons but had superior strikeout and walk marks to Wacha.
The Giants inked Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to matching two-year, $25MM guarantees with an opt-out after the first season. Stripling is perhaps the closest comparison point to Wacha, as he was coming off a 3.01 ERA in his platform season despite a modest 20.7% strikeout rate. As with Wacha, Stripling’s career track record has been inconsistent. Manaea was more of a rebound flier, as he’d had a dismal second half preceding his free agent trip.
José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and Tyler Anderson (three years, $39MM after rejecting a qualifying offer) each had a sub-3.00 ERA in their platform seasons. Both had mixed results in the few years leading up to 2022 and were older than Wacha is now. They each showed strong command last season with roughly average swing-and-miss rates and low-90s velocity.
Wacha fits in that category of back-end starter, which generally received around $12-13MM annually over two or three years last winter. Wacha’s $16MM club options are a bit above that, but the player option values are well below it. If the Padres decline their end, Wacha is very likely to opt out and test free agency. He at least shouldn’t have any issue topping the respective $17MM and $19MM two-year guarantees secured by Jordan Lyles and Drew Smyly last offseason.
The Padres are one of the league’s higher-spending franchises and already facing ample uncertainty in their rotation. Blake Snell is going to be a free agent. Seth Lugo is almost certainly going to decline a player option and test the market. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are the only veteran starters guaranteed to be in next year’s rotation; both ended this season on the injured list. Nick Martinez could opt out of his own deal if the Friars decline a two-year, $32MM extension.
None of the other pitchers to log any kind of rotation time for San Diego are clear answers. Ryan Weathers was traded away at the deadline. Rich Hill has been knocked around and seems likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. Pedro Avila and Matt Waldron have ERA’s around 6.00 when working as starters. If the Padres don’t retain Wacha, they’ll likely need to add one or two similar pitchers in free agency or trade.
Is it worthwhile for the Padres to preserve some stability by locking Wacha back in at the start of the offseason, even if the annual salary is a bit beyond what he’d likely receive on the open market? Would they be better served preserving that flexibility going into the winter as they sort through other rotation possibilities?
(poll link for app users)
How Will Michael Wacha's Option Be Resolved?
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Padres exercise their end. 43% (1,255)
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Both sides decline; Wacha hits free agency. 39% (1,141)
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Padres decline; Wacha opts in. 17% (499)
Total votes: 2,895
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Brewers Notes: Counsell, Ashby, Stadium
With a magic number of three to clinch the NL Central, the Brewers could punch their ticket to the postseason this weekend. It’ll be their fifth playoff appearance in eight full seasons under Craig Counsell, the longest-tenured active skipper in the National League. Nevertheless, Counsell’s future in Milwaukee beyond October isn’t clear. He’s in the final season of a contract extension he signed in January 2020.
Owner Mark Attanasio told reporters last month that Counsell and the team had agreed to defer talks about an extension until after the ’23 campaign. That has led to plenty of speculation about the 53-year-old potentially going elsewhere or leaving the dugout entirely. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Counsell is expected to continue managing in 2024, though his future obviously won’t be entirely clear until the offseason. According to Heyman, Counsell is making $3.5MM with Milwaukee this season.
Attanasio has made clear the Brewers hope to retain Counsell, who has led the team to a 701-621 record (53% win percentage) over his tenure. There aren’t any teams with a current managerial vacancy, though there’s been plenty of chatter about Terry Francona potentially stepping away from the Guardians after this season. The Mets are set to hire David Stearns away from the Milwaukee front office to lead baseball operations at year’s end, which figures to fuel some speculation regarding Counsell until his situation is resolved and/or the Mets make a firm commitment to current manager Buck Showalter.
Elsewhere in Milwaukee:
- Left-hander Aaron Ashby will join Triple-A Nashville on a minor league rehab stint, the club informed reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Journal-Sentinel). He’s trying to work back from early-April arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Ashby has been on the injured list all season and has battled shoulder woes at least as far back as last August. While the 25-year-old has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts and grounders at the big league level, his efforts to secure a rotation spot have been held back by inconsistent control and frustrating injury issues. The Brewers are presumably hoping for Ashby to work in short relief stints if he can make it back this fall.
- The club also continues efforts to secure funding for renovations to American Family Field, as chronicled by A.J. Bayatpour of CBS 58. Earlier this week, state legislators proposed a spending plan that’d see north of $700MM in renovations as part of an agreement to extend the club’s lease by 20 years to run through the 2050 season. Under that proposal, the team would put in $100MM, the city/county would contribute just over $200MM combined, and the state would pay roughly $411MM. According to Bayatpour, the legislature could vote on the proposal at some point next month.
Guardians To Activate Shane Bieber From Injured List
The Guardians are listing Shane Bieber as the probable starter for tomorrow evening’s matchup with the Orioles. He’ll go up against Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer.
That indicates that Cleveland will reinstate Bieber from the 60-day injured list tomorrow. As reflected on the MLB.com injury tracker, the club is hoping for Bieber to throw around 80 pitches. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner tossed 64 pitches on Sunday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus.
Bieber hasn’t pitched in a big league game since July 9. Coming out of the All-Star Break, the Guardians announced he’d been dealing with forearm discomfort. An MRI revealed elbow inflammation that led the club to shut him down entirely for a few weeks. While there was never any suggestion he could require surgery, the issue was serious enough to cost him almost all of the second half.
His return comes too late for Cleveland to make a move in the standings. They’ll be eliminated from postseason contention with their next loss or a Minnesota win. Barring a nine-game win streak to close out the year, they’ll finish with a sub-.500 record. Bieber’s return won’t mean much in the standings, though he’ll get to make two or three starts to hopefully demonstrate a clean bill of health heading into the offseason.
Assuming he’s healthy, Bieber figures to be a popular target in trade discussions. The Guardians have shown a willingness to move quality starters as they get close to free agency, dealing away the likes of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. There was some thought they’d do the same with Bieber this summer, though his injury took that off the table. Cleveland did flip Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay for top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo instead.
Bieber is making just north of $10MM this season. He’ll be due a raise on that sum for what’ll be his final arbitration campaign next year. Bieber is coming off a relative down year by his standards. Prior to the stint on the injured list, he’d turned in a 3.77 ERA with a career-low 19.4% strikeout rate through 19 starts.
Opposing teams will surely still have interest in prying him from Cleveland. It remains to be seen if the offers will be strong enough for the Guardians to make a move. Cleveland figures to make another run at competing in the AL Central. The second-year trio of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen makes for a strong rotation nucleus, but Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie have struggled through injury-plagued 2023 campaigns.
McKenzie could also make it back in the coming days. MLB.com notes that the Guardians are hopeful the righty could take the ball in Sunday’s series finale; the club still lists their probable starter for that game as to be determined. The Guardians already have an opening on the 40-man roster for Bieber after waiving Matt Moore this week. They’d need to create a spot for McKenzie if he comes back this weekend, which could be accomplished by transferring Bibee to the 60-day IL due to his season-ending hip issue.
Byron Buxton To Begin Rehab Assignment
Byron Buxton will begin a rehab stint at Triple-A St. Paul tomorrow, the Twins announced (relayed by Dan Hayes of the Athletic). He’ll start out as a designated hitter.
Buxton hasn’t played in an MLB game since he was placed on the injured list on August 4. While that stay on the shelf was related to a hamstring strain, soreness in his right knee has been the more pressing concern. Knee issues had kept Buxton from playing defense at any point this season. He got a start in center field when he began a rehab assignment at St. Paul three weeks ago, but he was quickly pulled off that stint when the knee flared back up.
The Twins should officially sew up the AL Central title by this weekend. They would clinch on tomorrow’s off day if both Detroit and Cleveland lose. They’re unlikely to track down the AL West winner to secure a first-round bye, so it’s highly likely they’ll go into October as the #3 seed in the American League. That leaves them a little under two weeks to sort things out for the postseason.
Minnesota is giving Carlos Correa at least a week and a half on the injured list to rest his left foot after playing through plantar fasciitis for the bulk of the season. They’ll now get another look at Buxton as he works to get to game readiness before the playoffs. While there are only four games remaining on the Triple-A schedule, Buxton could shake off more rust in low-leverage MLB contests during the final week of the regular season.
It isn’t clear whether that’ll include more action in the outfield. Manager Rocco Baldelli has previously left open the possibility of trying Buxton back in center field after the break in his rehab stint.
When healthy, Buxton is among the best defensive outfielders in the game. With the knee issue robbing him of that aspect this season, he’s having a down year. Buxton is hitting .207/.294/.438 with 17 home runs across 347 plate appearances. That’s middling production for a strict DH. Edouard Julien, who has been Minnesota’s primary DH with Buxton out, carries a .268/.378/.458 line over 371 trips in his rookie campaign. If the Twins have a fully healthy infield of Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Correa and Royce Lewis for the postseason (Lewis is day-to-day with hamstring soreness), the Twins could consider Julien their top DH option.
Padres’ Tim Hill Undergoes Finger Surgery
Padres reliever Tim Hill underwent surgery today to address a ligament injury in his left ring finger, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He won’t throw for six to eight weeks but is expected to be ready for Spring Training.
Hill, 34 in February, has spent the last four seasons as a situational option out of the San Diego bullpen. A sidearming lefty, he doesn’t throw hard but works from a low enough arm angle to usually keep the ball on the ground. Hill’s grounder percentage has been a bit north of 60% for three years running, while his career mark is just below that threshold. That resulted in consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings from 2021-22, but his results this season haven’t been as impressive.
Over 44 1/3 innings, Hill posted a 5.48 ERA. He struck out fewer than 13% of batters faced for the second straight year. While Hill kept his walks and grounders in his customary range, he struggled when opponents were able to elevate the ball. Right-handed hitters posted a .378/.431/.602 batting line in 110 plate appearances. Righties have frequently given him trouble, which isn’t uncommon for low-slot lefties, but this year’s results were easily a career worst.
Hill has generally fared well against same-handed batters. From 2020-22, he kept lefties to a .212/.299/.303 line in 262 trips to the plate. Opponents found more success this season, putting up a .275/.352/.400 mark over 92 plate appearances.
The Padres and Hill agreed on a $1.85MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. He’d be due a modest raise on that figure if San Diego wanted to keep him around for his final season of eligibility. Given his diminished results, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Padres opt against tendering him a contract.
Qualifying Offer Value To Land Around $20.5MM
The qualifying offer for the upcoming offseason will be in the $20.5MM range, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The specific number may not be known until shortly after the conclusion of the regular season.
It’ll be the highest QO value in league history. The offer price is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors. That figure generally increases year over year as overall spending rises.
The annual progression of the QO value since its implementation during the 2012-13 offseason:
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
- 2023-24: roughly $20.5MM
Teams can make the qualifying offer to an impending free agent who has a) never previously received a QO in their career and b) spent the entire 2023 season on their roster. It’d be a one-year offer valued at that approximate $20.5MM price point. Players tagged with the QO have five days to decide whether to accept that lofty one-year salary or decline in search of a free agent contract. Signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer from another team requires forfeiture of a draft choice and potentially international signing bonus space, depending upon the signing club’s revenue sharing status. A team receives compensation for the loss of a player who turned down a QO and signed elsewhere.
14 players received qualifying offers last offseason. Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez accepted. The other 12 players declined, though Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Nimmo subsequently ended up re-signing with their previous team.
Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Josh Hader are among the players who are near locks to receive and reject the QO this winter. Jordan Montgomery and Lucas Giolito were taken out of QO consideration by midseason trades, while Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman are ineligible as previous recipients.