Author: Anthony Franco

MLBTR’s position by position preview of the upcoming free agent class concludes with a look at the right-handed relievers. While there’s no one at the top of this group who’ll rival Josh Hader among the southpaws, there are a number of impressive middle to late inning arms who’ll hit the market.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

High-Leverage/Potential Setup Arms

• Jordan Hicks (27)

Hicks is both the youngest and hardest-throwing name on this year’s bullpen market. The Cardinals couldn’t seem to make up their mind whether they wanted him to be a starter or reliever, but he’s having his best year to date in the latter of those two roles. In 63 2/3 innings between the Cards and Blue Jays, Hicks has logged a 3.11 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate and massive 58.5% ground-ball rate. His strikeouts are down to a roughly average 23.5% since being traded, but his 7.1% walk rate since the trade would also be a career-best.

Hicks’ typical 100 mph sinker has dropped to an average of, ahem, “only” 99.3 mph with the Jays after sitting at 100.7 mph in St. Louis prior to the swap. It’s still absolutely overpowering velocity, and the dip in heat feels like a worthwhile trade-off if he can keep his command at this level, especially since his ground-ball rate remains unchanged. Hicks only just turned 27 this month, so even a three-year deal would conclude just weeks after he turns 30.

He’s already had Tommy John surgery, so there’s some injury risk, but his unrivaled youth and power arsenal will serve him well. Hicks will be among the top three to four options on the market this year.

• Joe Jimenez (29)

While Jimenez isn’t as young as Hicks, he’s still atypical for a free agent reliever. He’ll play next season at age 29 and has a shot at a three-year pact coming off consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. Jimenez has turned in 54 2/3 innings of 3.13 ERA ball in his first season as a Brave after an offseason trade from the Tigers.

With a fastball that lands in the 95-96 MPH range, Jimenez has consistently missed bats. He has fanned more than 30% of opponents in consecutive years and racked up swinging strikes on 15.4% of his pitches. Since an uncharacteristic spike in walks in 2021, he has limited free passes to around a 6% clip in each of the last two seasons.

The only moderate area of concern lies in Jimenez’s batted ball profile. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which makes him susceptible to home runs. He’s allowing homers at a higher than average 1.48 HR/9 clip on the year and has allowed 1.35 homers per nine for his career. This year’s league average for relievers is 1.10 HR/9.

• Pierce Johnson (33)

Johnson has proven one of the best deadline acquisitions of the summer. The right-hander carried a 6.00 ERA over 39 frames for the Rockies. The Braves acquired him for a pair of minor league pitchers and he’s now a key performer in their quality relief corps.

Since the trade, Johnson owns a 0.83 ERA across 21 2/3 innings. He’s keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 58% clip and striking out just under a third of opponents. He has more than halved his walk rate from 13.1% in Colorado to 6.1% for the Braves. Behind a 96 MPH heater and a power curveball in the mid-80s, he’s getting whiffs on almost 17% of offerings.

Johnson will be 33 next May and lost a good chunk of the 2022 season to forearm tendinitis. That could keep the offers limited to two years, but he should secure one of the stronger annual salaries in the relief class thanks to his dominant second half.

• Reynaldo Lopez (30)

Lopez, 30 in January, doesn’t miss the “hardest-throwing” distinction among this year’s class by much. The longtime White Sox hurler has averaged 98.4 mph on his heater in 2023 and is in his third straight season with a mid-3.00s ERA (or better). In 64 frames spread across the Sox, Angels and Guardians, Lopez has a 3.38 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. That strikeout rate is the best of his career, but Lopez’s walk rate is more than double the 5% at which it sat in 2021-22 combined.

Somewhat interestingly, Lopez has done his best work of the season since being claimed by Cleveland, where he’s throwing his changeup more than twice as much as he did with the ChiSox. Perhaps that’s small sample noise — or perhaps it’s a recipe for success. Regardless, a 30-year-old righty who sits 98-99, regularly hits triple digits, and boasts a 3.18 ERA over his past three seasons and 187 innings isn’t going to lack interest. Lopez is going to get a multi-year deal — likely at a premium annual rate.

• Robert Stephenson (31)

Stephenson has gone from unheralded journeyman acquisition to high-octane arm within a manner of months. He owned a 5.14 ERA in 14 appearances for the Pirates when he was dealt to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams in a June 2 trade. Since landing in Tampa Bay, he’s been one of the best relievers on the planet.

Over 36 1/3 frames as a Ray, Stephenson carries a 2.48 ERA. He’s striking out an eye-popping 41.8% of batters faced while walking just 6% of opponents. His dominance on a pitch-for-pitch basis is laughable. Stephenson has gotten a swinging strike on 28.2% of his pitches as a Ray and 24.1% of his offerings this season overall. Not only is that the highest rate of any pitcher with 50+ innings, it’s more than three percentage points clear of second-place Felix Bautista.

How will the market value a pitcher who has been arguably the game’s most dominant reliever for three and a half months after a career of inconsistency? Pitchers like Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero have landed three-year contracts largely behind one platform season that was less impressive than Stephenson’s last few months. The Padres went to four years and $34MM for Drew Pomeranz on the heels of a dominant second half a few seasons back.

Veterans with Closing Experience

• Brad Boxberger (36)

Boxberger was on the injured list from May through September due to a forearm strain. He returned to pitch 5 1/3 innings, allowing two runs before going back on the injured list with another forearm strain. Boxberger has a long track record and was excellent as recently as 2020-22 (3.13 ERA in 164 2/3 innings). He’s averaged a career-low 91.4 mph on his heater this year while battling injuries, however. Between that velocity dip, his age and this year’s forearm strains, he’ll be limited to short-term interest.

• Dylan Floro (33)

Floro has an average strikeout rate, better-than-average command, a plus 54.4% grounder rate and a low 87.1 mph average exit velocity this season, but he’s still sporting a 5.59 ERA in large part due to a fluky .401 average on balls in play. He’s been used as a closer and setup man in recent seasons. Fielding-independent metrics still like his 2023 work (2.96 FIP, 3.35 SIERA) even if his results are a far cry from the 2.85 ERA he posted from 2020-22.

• Craig Kimbrel (36)

Kimbrel is the top pitcher in this group. Signed to a $10MM guarantee last winter, the nine-time All-Star has saved 23 games in 27 tries for the Phillies. He owns a 3.27 ERA over 66 frames while striking out just under a third of opposing hitters. Kimbrel is picking up swinging strikes on 13.5% of his offerings and averaging 96 MPH on his fastball.

While he’s clearly not the unhittable force he was at his peak, Kimbrel is still an above-average MLB reliever. He’ll hit free agency off a better platform year than he did a season ago, when he’d posted a 3.75 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate for the Dodgers. A similar contract to the one he landed from Philadelphia should be the floor. His camp could take aim at a two-year contract, as Kenley Jansen secured last offseason, albeit at a likely lesser average annual value than Jansen’s $16MM.

• Trevor May (35)

May has worked to a 3.43 ERA and saved 20 games in 44 2/3 innings for an MLB-worst A’s team. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 19.1% clip, while his swinging strike percentage has dropped from 13.3% to 10.4%. May spent a month on the injured list early in the season due to anxiety. While he has a 2.09 ERA in 39 appearances since returning, that hasn’t been supported by middling strikeout (19.8%) and walk (12.3%) numbers. Perhaps a rebuilding team will be willing to give him another run in the ninth inning; if he signs with a contender, he’d likely move to a lower-leverage role.

• David Robertson (39)

Robertson posted a 2.05 ERA while saving 14 games with seven holds in 40 contests for the Mets. He hasn’t maintained that pace since a deadline trade to the Marlins, allowing nearly six earned runs per nine. Robertson hasn’t thrown strikes consistently in South Florida, though he has continued to miss bats at a high level. The Fish pulled him from the ninth inning last month but have kept deploying him in high-leverage situations.

The veteran’s overall season line is still solid. He carries a 3.18 ERA with an above-average 27.7% strikeout rate and a tolerable 9.6% walk percentage. While his stint with the Marlins hasn’t gone as expected, he has an established career track record as one of the game’s better late-game arms.

Middle Relievers

• Ryan Brasier (36)

After an up-and-down tenure with the Red Sox, Brasier was released in May and embarked on a radical turnaround upon signing with the Dodgers. In 36 2/3 frames with L.A., he’s posted a sensational 0.74 ERA with a markedly improved 26.7% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. He won’t sustain a .182 average on balls in play, but Brasier went from yielding a sky-high 92.4 mph average exit velocity with the Red Sox to just 87.1 mph as a Dodger. He’ll have no problem finding a big league deal this winter — perhaps even a two-year pact.

• John Brebbia (34)

A quietly strong and versatile member of the Giants’ bullpen, Brebbia has worked to a 3.30 ERA in 103 2/3 innings dating back to 2022. That includes “starting” 20 games as an opener and also picking up 24 holds. This year’s 29.9% strikeout rate is a career-high. A right lat strain wiped out more than two months of his 2023 season, but he returned earlier this month and is on track to finish out the season healthy.

• Jesse Chavez (40)

A comeback liner struck Chavez in the shin back in June and wound up causing a microfracture that kept him off the field more than two months. He’s tossed 2 2/3 shutout innings since returning and has now allowed just one run in his past 21 2/3 frames. Chavez found new life in his late 30s, pitching to a 2.81 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in 134 2/3 innings from 2021-23. If he wants to keep going, this year’s 1.42 ERA will garner plenty of interest — though another stint with the Braves might work best for all parties.

• Jose Cisnero (35)

Cisnero was excellent for the Tigers from 2020 through early July of the current season (2.77 ERA, 38 holds, 5 saves in 149 1/3 innings). He was rocked for five runs on July 7, however, and he’s yet to rediscover his form. Cisnero wasn’t traded at the deadline and passed through waivers unclaimed in August. He has a 10.41 ERA in his past 23 1/3 innings.

• Chris Devenski (33)

Devenski has split his time between the Angels and Rays, working to a 4.81 ERA across 39 1/3 innings. He has a decent 24.6% strikeout rate and a strong 6.8% walk percentage that could secure him a big league contract on the heels of a minor league pact a year ago.

• Buck Farmer (33)

Farmer parlayed a minor league deal with the Reds in the 2021-22 offseason into a regular role in David Bell’s bullpen. He’s pitched 120 innings with a 3.98 ERA, slightly above-average 24.4% strikeout rate and higher-than-average 10.6% walk rate over the past two seasons. He’s been a durable middle reliever with a 4.15 ERA or better in five of the past six seasons — the lone exception being a 6.37 mark in 35 innings with the ’21 Tigers.

• Michael Fulmer (31)

After a tough start to the season, the former AL Rookie of the Year has pitched to a 2.48 ERA over his past 36 1/3 innings — dating back to late May. Fulmer is missing bats at career-high levels (27.4% strikeout rate, 14.1% swinging-strike rate) but issuing walks at the highest clip of his career as well (11.8%). Fulmer has closed and worked in setup roles since moving to the bullpen after injuries derailed his career as a starter.

• Luis Garcia (37)

Garcia averages just under 98 MPH on a bowling ball sinker, allowing him to run huge grounder rates (including a 61.6% clip this season). His strikeout rate has dropped six percentage points to a below-average 20.5% clip, however, and he’s allowing 4.17 earned runs per nine.

• Phil Maton (31)

Maton has turned in consecutive sub-4.00 seasons while topping 60 innings for the Astros. He’s striking out an above-average 26.6% of opponents against a 9.5% walk rate. Maton does an excellent job avoiding hard contact and typically generates solid results. He could find a multi-year deal as a result, although his 89.1 MPH average fastball velocity and heavy reliance on a low-70s curveball makes him an atypical target among a market that usually values high-octane relief arms.

• Keynan Middleton (30)

After signing a minor league contract a season ago, Middleton has pitched his way to a guaranteed deal this time around. He has tallied 50 innings between the White Sox and Yankees, working to a 3.08 ERA with an excellent 31.3% strikeout percentage and a massive 55.9% grounder rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 17.2% of his offerings. Middleton had posted an ERA around 5.00 in each of the three seasons preceding this one and still has spotty command. Neither Chicago nor New York plugged him directly into the late-inning mix. He’s one of the younger pitchers in the free agent class and has a rare combination of whiffs and ground-balls though.

• Shelby Miller (33)

The 40 innings Miller has thrown for the Dodgers ranks as his second-highest total since 2016. The former All-Star starter has bounced into journeyman relief mode over the last half-decade. Miller has done well in L.A., pitching to a 1.80 ERA across 40 innings. Opponents aren’t going to continue hitting under .200 on balls in play and his 12.2% walk rate is concerning. Miller has fanned upwards of 26% of batters faced after deploying a new split-finger offering this season.

• Dominic Leone (32)

Leone has appeared for three teams in 2023 and eight in his big league career overall. He continues to intrigue with a mid-90s heater and a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches, running a massive 16.1% swinging strike percentage in 50 2/3 frames this year. The whiffs haven’t translated to good results, however, as he’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine. He issues a lot of walks and has been extremely homer-prone in 2023. There might still be enough in the raw arsenal to secure a big league deal.

• Emilio Pagan (33)

Pagan had bounced around the league before finding a bit of stability with the Twins. Minnesota stuck with him after a rough first season and has been rewarded with a solid ’23 campaign. Pagan has worked to a 3.12 ERA over 66 1/3 innings, including a sterling 2.10 mark in the second half. An extreme fly-ball pitcher, Pagan has struggled with home runs in his career. The longball hasn’t been an issue this season, as he’s allowing just 0.68 per nine innings. He’ll have a hard time sustaining that over multiple years, but he averages nearly 96 MPH on his fastball and consistently runs average or better strikeout and walk numbers.

• Ryne Stanek (32)

Stanek is one of the hardest throwers in the sport, averaging upwards of 98 MPH on his heater. He has always had below-average control but typically misses enough bats to compensate for the walks. Stanek’s strikeout rate is down to a fine but unexceptional 23.7% this season, posting a 3.99 ERA over 49 2/3 frames in the process. The Astros have used him mostly in low-leverage situations after leaning on him as a key relief weapon when he posted a 1.15 ERA a year ago. While his stock is down relative to a season ago, he’s still a lock for a big league deal and among the higher-upside plays in the middle relief group.

• Chris Stratton (33)

The well-traveled Stratton has been part of deadline deals in two consecutive summers. He has split the 2023 campaign between the Cardinals and Rangers, turning in a cumulative 3.62 ERA while logging 82 innings of relief. Stratton is a middle innings workhorse who has fanned a solid 24.4% of opponents against a modest 7.5% walk rate. Despite a dip in his swinging strikes this season, he’ll get a major league contract.

• Drew VerHagen (33)

VerHagen is wrapping up a two-year contract with the Cardinals after spending a couple seasons in Japan. While his huge ground-ball numbers in NPB didn’t translate back to the majors, he has posted a 3.97 ERA with nearly average strikeout, walk and grounder rates across 59 innings this season.

Starter/Relief Hybrids

• Jakob Junis (32)

Junis has rather quietly been a solid long relief option for the Giants. He has tallied 86 innings over 40 appearances, working to a 3.87 ERA with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate and a minuscule 5.7% walk percentage. His fastball is averaging a career-best 94 MPH and he’s getting swinging strikes on 11.3% of his offerings. Junis started 17 games a season ago and pitched well enough that another club could consider him in either role. He has a case for a two-year deal.

• Shintaro Fujinami (30)

Fujinami began his MLB career working out of the A’s rotation. He posted dismal results and was quickly pushed to the bullpen. Fujinami has found a little more success in relief, though he still carries a 5.16 ERA in 59 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. He has huge arm strength, averaging north of 99 MPH on his heater since being traded from Oakland to the Orioles. It’s an intriguing arsenal, but he has yet to assuage the concerns about his command that were present during his career in Japan.

Club Options

• Matt Barnes (34)

The Marlins are going to decline an $8.25MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout. The former All-Star closer pitched to a 5.48 ERA in 24 games for the Fish. He underwent season-ending hip surgery in July.

• Chad Green (33)

The Jays will have to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $27MM team option. If they decline, Green would have a $6.25MM player option for next season. If he declines, Toronto could circle back on a two-year, $21MM pact.

They’re working on predictably limited information, as Green didn’t make it back from last year’s Tommy John procedure until this month. His mid-90s velocity is back and he has a 13:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 10 innings. While Green looks much like he did with the Yankees before the surgery, it’s hard to make a definitive conclusion based on three weeks of work.

• Liam Hendriks (35)

Hendriks will likely miss the entire 2024 season after requiring Tommy John surgery at the beginning of August. The White Sox will buy him out, thereby paying what would’ve been a $15MM salary in installments over the next decade instead of next year. As a free agent, Hendriks could find interest on a two-year pact from a team hoping he can recapture his elite form in 2025.

• Daniel Hudson (37)

The Dodgers hold a $6.5MM option on Hudson which they’ll buy out. He has been limited to three appearances — first by rehab from last summer’s ACL tear, then by an MCL sprain in his opposite knee. Hudson could return for the Dodgers’ playoff run, though that won’t change the calculus on the option.

• Joe Kelly (36)

The Dodgers hold a $9.5MM option with a $1MM buyout. The $8.5MM gap seems large enough for L.A. to buy Kelly out, especially since he missed a month in the second half with forearm inflammation. Kelly has massive strikeout (35.4%) and ground-ball (58.8%) numbers behind a fastball that sits north of 99 MPH. The bottom line results haven’t followed, as he has posted a 4.34 ERA on the heels of a 6.08 showing for the White Sox a season ago.

• Jose Leclerc (30)

Texas holds a $6.25MM option or a $750K buyout on Leclerc. He’s an erratic but overall effective arm in the late innings. Through 53 2/3 frames, he owns a 2.85 ERA while fanning just under 28% of opposing hitters. The price point is modest enough the Rangers seem likely to bring Leclerc back, though his inconsistent control suggests he’s probably better served for a middle innings role if Texas deepens their relief group this winter.

• Nick Martinez (33)

The Padres have to decide whether to trigger a two-year, $32MM option at season’s end. If they decline, Martinez has a two-year, $16MM player option. With San Diego using him largely in a medium-leverage relief role, they seem unlikely to lock in a $16MM annual salary for two seasons. Yet Martinez has been effective enough he could try to top the $8MM salaries and/or secure a rotation spot in free agency.

Martinez has logged 105 1/3 innings through 62 appearances (eight starts). He’s allowing 3.59 earned runs per nine with average strikeout and walk marks and a lofty 54.1% ground-ball percentage.

• Collin McHugh (37)

The Braves hold a $6MM option with a $1MM buyout. The $5MM difference is probably beyond what they’ll want to pay, as the veteran hurler has had a middling season. He owns a 4.30 ERA across 58 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate — which sat at 27.6% during his first year in Atlanta — is down to 17.5%. McHugh has been out since early September with shoulder inflammation; he’s on a rehab stint and could return for the playoffs if the Braves want to carry him on the postseason roster.

• Alex Reyes (29)

The Dodgers signed Reyes to a free agent deal in hopes he’d return to form after a 2022 season wrecked by shoulder injuries. Unfortunately, he had a setback and underwent another season-ending surgery in June without making an appearance. The Dodgers will decline a $3MM option.

• Blake Treinen (36)

The Dodgers have a club option valued anywhere between $1-7MM. He has been out the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery last November. It’s tough to project the Dodgers’ decision until the option price is finalized.

• Kirby Yates (37)

Atlanta holds a $5.75MM option that comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making it a $4.5MM decision. Yates has returned after a couple seasons lost to injury to log 58 1/3 innings of 3.24 ERA ball while striking out over 32% of opponents. His velocity is back at pre-surgery levels but his command is not, as he’s walking nearly 15% of batters faced. The price point could be modest enough for the Braves to retain Yates in hopes he dials in the strike-throwing as he gets further removed from surgery.

Player Options

• Hector Neris (35)

Neris threw 110 innings over the first two seasons of his free agent contract with the Astros, converting an $8.5MM club option into a player provision in the process (assuming he passes an end-of-year physical). Even at 35, he could decline that in search of another two-year guarantee. Neris has worked to a 1.81 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this season, working mostly in high-leverage spots. He’s picking up swinging strikes on over 14% of his offerings for a second consecutive year despite losing a tick off his average fastball speed.

• Adam Ottavino (38)

Ottavino has a $6.75MM option on his contract with the Mets. The veteran righty suggested to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com last month he was likely to exercise that provision. He has a 2.82 ERA over 59 2/3 innings, although his strikeout rate has dropped more than six percentage points relative to last season.

Low-Cost Veterans and Minor League Depth (listed alphabetically)

• Garrett Acton (26), Jacob Barnes (34), Anthony Bass (36), Archie Bradley (31), Matt Bush (38), Luis Cessa (32), Carl Edwards Jr. (32), Paolo Espino (37), Jeurys Familia (34), Mychal Givens (34), Heath Hembree (35), Tommy Hunter (37), Ian Kennedy (39), Chad Kuhl (32), Dinelson Lamet (31), Mark Melancon (39), Jimmy Nelson (34), Erasmo Ramirez (34), Dennis Santana (28), Bryan Shaw (36), Ryan Tepera (36), Nick Wittgren (33), Jimmy Yacabonis (32)

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter, starting pitcher, lefty relief.