Things aren’t going well for the Orioles, to state the obvious. They currently have a record of 26-38. They are 8.5 games back of the final American League Wild Card spot. They are behind every A.L. team apart from the White Sox and Athletics. FanGraphs puts Baltimore’s playoff odds at 3.1%. Baseball Prospectus is slightly more optimistic at 9.7%.

Barring a surge in the next few weeks, they will go into the trade deadline as sellers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the club is viewing things that way, unsurprisingly. That’s a disappointing outcome but it also presents opportunities.

Teams on the fringes of contention often have to answer tough questions about how aggressively to attack the deadline. Diving in headfirst as a buyer has short-term appeal but runs the risk of investing in a flawed team while hampering the club in the future. Trying to walk a fine line between buying and selling can sometimes end up as a half measure that doesn’t fully work in either direction.

The O’s should have a more straightforward approach. While they will be sellers, there is still a lot of young talent in the system and on the big league roster. The general strategy should be to move guys with dwindling control while keeping the long-term pieces with an eye towards contending again in 2026. Ramón Urías and/or Ryan O’Hearn could be traded, making more room for Coby Mayo at the infield corners. Cedric Mullins should be flipped, opening playing time for the club’s many young outfielders such as Jud Fabian or Enrique Bradfield.

Another interesting name who should be in the mix is Samuel Basallo. An international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, he got a healthy $1.3MM bonus. Since then, he has continued to climb prospect rankings with his excellent work in the minors. In 364 games on the farm to this point, Basallo has a combined .282/.364/.489 batting line and 134 wRC+. That includes a .252/.365/.595 line and 148 wRC+ at Triple-A this year. He has 13 home runs in just 39 games. His 25% strikeout rate is a bit high, but his 14.7% walk rate is almost double the league average.

There have been some question marks about his defense over the years, but prospect evaluators feel he has improved as he has aged. He is still only 20 years old and won’t turn 21 until August. Baseball America currently lists him as the #17 prospect in baseball. MLB Pipeline has him at #16. Keith Law of The Athletic just did a midseason update and had Basallo at #4. Coming into the year, ESPN had him at #17 and FanGraphs at #5.

The Orioles have one of the most talented catchers in baseball in Adley Rutschman, though he’s has been in a slump for almost a year now. The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman was doing everything according to plan in his first few years in the big leagues.

From 2022-23, Rutschman hit 33 home runs, drew walks at a 13.6% clip and only struck out 16.2% of the time. His .268/.369/.439 line lead to a 130 wRC+, indicating he was 30% better than league average at the plate. The defense also received strong reviews. FanGraphs credited him with 11.3 wins above replacement over those two seasons, tops among all big league catchers in that time. That number doesn’t even account for intangibles, with Rutschman often complimented for his clubhouse leadership and work with a pitching staff.

For the first half of 2024, Rutschman continued on that pace. Through June 26th, he had a .297/.350/.470 line and 135 wRC+. On June 27th, he was hit on his right hand by a foul tip and had that hand wrapped up after the game, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (video clip of the play from MLB.com, though the announcer accidentally refers to Rutschman as James McCann). Maybe the timing is a coincidence, but Rutschman hasn’t been the same since. He sat out the club’s game on June 28th but was back in there on the 29th. He slashed .189/.279/.280 for a 63 wRC+ in the rest of the season.

Here in 2025, the two-time All-Star been better but not back to his previous self. Rutschman has a .227/.321/.374 line and 103 wRC+ this year. Some of that may be luck. He has a .250 batting average on balls in play this season, which is well below his previous level and this year’s .290 league average. His 90.8 miles per hour average exit velocity is actually a career high. His 9.4% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate are also personal bests.

His batted ball metrics were down in the second half of 2024. Perhaps the most logical explanation is that Rutschman wasn’t 100% healthy after taking that foul tip last year, whereas he’s been mostly healthy but unlucky so far in 2025. He’s had a few knocks this year but has avoided the injured list. Maybe his results will even out in the long run and this dip will eventually look like a footnote. For what it’s worth, I personally think that’s the best and most likely explanation.

Even if Rutschman’s slump was just a blip and he’s back to his old self, the Orioles will still likely have to make some decisions about their plans behind the plate.  Rutschman is now just over two years away from free agency, as he’s slated to hit the open market after the 2027 season. Despite a late-May call up in 2022, he earned a full year of service by finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting. There hasn’t been any indication that an extension is especially likely. With 2025 trending toward being a lost cause, the O’s may only have two more real bites of the apple with Rutschman.

There’s also Basallo’s health to consider. Though he continues mashing the ball, he has dealt with some injuries, including a hamstring issue and some elbow inflammation. Those issues, particularly the latter, have cut into his ability to get work behind the plate. In order to get him regular plate appearances, the O’s have put him at first base and in the designated hitter slot with some frequency. This year, he has 17 starts as a DH, nine at first and 11 behind the plate. He only has 90 innings in the catcher position this year. Last year, he had 35 starts as the DH, 32 at first base and 56 as the catcher.

That means it’s not a strict either/or situation. It’s entirely possible to imagine a scenario wherein Rutschman and Basallo share the catching duties and the DH slot while Basallo also gets some time at first base. Gary Sánchez was the planned backup to Rutschman this year, but he’s largely been hurt and is an impending free agent regardless. O’Hearn is an impending free agent as well. Ryan Mountcastle can be controlled through 2026 but looks like a non-tender candidate since he was having a poor year and is now going to be on the IL for months. Mayo could take over at first next year with Jordan Westburg at third base. Urias might still be on the roster next year, but the likely departures of O’Hearn and Mountcastle will free up some plate appearances.

Basallo’s bat will seemingly be good enough to play anywhere, but his offensive contributions will be more valuable if he can be a regular catcher. The Orioles might prefer to use the first base and DH spots for Mayo and their many young outfielders. If the O’s wanted to open the catcher position for Basallo, there might be some temptation to consider trading Rutschman.

Doing so this summer is not likely. Trading catchers midseason can be difficult because the backstop would have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. There’s also the fact that Rutschman’s value is likely down, on account of last year’s struggles and this year’s slow start. As referenced earlier, better days may be ahead, so waiting may be the smart play. With Basallo still a work in progress, there shouldn’t be short-term urgency to get a deal done.

But over the next few years, it’s possible that the pressure builds. Basallo coming up to the majors this year is totally viable, especially if the O’s sell off some pieces at the deadline and open up playing time. If he can hit big league pitching and continues maturing defensively, his viability as a major league catcher will grow. All the while, Rutschman’s window of control will be narrowing. As mentioned, he’s now about two and a half seasons from the open market. He’s making $5.5MM this year and will be due two more raises in arbitration.

As the window of control shrinks and his salary grows, his trade value will drop. That’s a tricky balance the O’s will have to consider. They have long had a big collection of position player talent but have struggled to have enough starting pitching. They have increased spending a bit in the past year but still haven’t made massive investments in the rotation, which has contributed to their unraveling this year.

Trading Rutschman and handing the catching duties to Basallo would certainly be a massive risk right now. But over time, perhaps it starts to look less risky, depending on how Basallo dives into the major league waters.

For other clubs, Rutschman would certainly hold appeal. Free agency usually isn’t a great place to find catching solutions. Backstops tend to show their age a bit more quickly than other players, due to the demands of the position. By the time players get to free agency, they are usually around 30 years old. Rutschman is now 27 and will be 28 and 29 in his final two arbitration seasons.

It’s practically a given that there would be teams willing to surrender controllable starting pitching to acquire Rutschman down the road. If so, the O’s will have to think about the perfect time to make that strike. Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton are all slated for free agency this winter, so the rotation should be the club’s primary target again in the coming offseason, even with Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish coming back from injuries.

There are no easy answers here and there are still many different ways it could go. But whenever Basallo does come up, he will start to get tested and the O’s will gradually get more clarity on who he can be. As that is happening, the window will be slowly shutting on the Rutschman era, barring a surprise extension. As those strings unravel simultaneously, decisions will have to be made.

Photo courtesy of Joe Camporeale, Kim Klement Neitzel, and D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images