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The Mets’ Payroll Predicament

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The first anniversary of the Mets’ hiring of Brodie Van Wagenen is fast approaching. There have been some ups and downs, as might be expected. He’s currently looking for a new skipper and plotting a course for the coming offseason. One thing that is clear: the Mets are trying to win now. Van Wagenen’s task is to end a three-year postseason drought. But he’s going to have a tough time adding to his existing slate of talent unless he’s handed a larger purse to work with this winter. It’s not exactly a new situation in Queens, but it’s one worth examining anew with the market soon set to open.

The win-now mission was already evident, but its immediacy was highlighted and enhanced by the organization’s mid-summer transactions and non-transactions. On July 12th, the Mets sat 11 games under .500. By the time they had agreed to acquire Marcus Stroman on July 28th, they had closed that to five games under. And on the day after the deadline, the Queens denizens were three shy of even and in the middle of a wondrous hot streak that totally flipped the script on the season.

Trouble was, the Mets’ fate was always been tied inextricably to stumbles from the teams ahead of them. And they needed more than they could get. The Mets matched or bested a laundry list of mid-level National League teams. That was something of an accomplishment. But the outcome — no realistic hope entering the final week of the season — was exceedingly likely at the time of the deadline. With so many teams clustered ahead of the Mets late this summer, it was all but inevitable that a few would emerge. As it turned out, two of those ballclubs played about as well as the Mets have over the final two months of the campaign. With their preexisting advantages, the Nats and Brewers cruised ahead of their rivals in New York. This is why those playoff odds charts seemed so gloomy in late July.

So what was the point of that win-now-oriented deadline approach? Well, it certainly put more butts in the seats down the stretch. It helped breathe life into what had been a moribund season. It enabled the Mets to return to the ranks of the winning (86-76) and perhaps launched some forward momentum.

More importantly, though, this past summer’s decisionmaking was the start of the construction of the 2020 roster. Adding Stroman, while dumping Jason Vargas, was mostly salary-neutral for 2019. But it put a big number on the books for 2020 and cost the Mets one near-majors hurler (along with a further-off prospect). Hanging onto Zack Wheeler, who seems exceedingly likely to receive and decline a qualifying offer, meant foregoing a chance to recoup upper-level prospect depth in preference for a half season of Wheeler’s pitching and likely draft compensation.

Taking on Robinson Cano’s contract and sacrificing some intriguing prospects to get Edwin Diaz had already set the Mets down this trail. The 2019 trade deadline was Van Wagenen and co. pressing bravely on for glory rather than seeking a path back to relative safety.

So … let’s take stock of where the Mets stand with the offseason upon us. Juan Lagares and Todd Frazier are off the books, but that doesn’t mean there’s money to spend on replacements or other upgrades. Here are some of the major expenses that are either locked in or all but assured to be picked up:

Guaranteed Salary

  • Yoenis Cespedes: $29MM
  • Robinson Cano: $20.25MM (net of Mariners’ portion of obligation)
  • Jacob deGrom: $23MM salary ($12MM deferred); $10MM signing bonus payment 1/2/20
  • Jed Lowrie: $9MM salary; $1MM bonus payment in 11/15/19 & $500K bonus payment 1/15/20 (contract also includes $2.5MM bonus payment 1/15/21)
  • Wilson Ramos: $9.25MM
  • Jeurys Familia: $11MM ($1MM deferred)
  • Justin Wilson: $5MM
  • Total: $105MM payable during 2019-20 offseason/2020 season

Projected Arbitration Salaries

Other Obligations

There are many ways to tally all of this, and we don’t know exactly how the Mets are thinking about it internally, but that’s a big slate of preexisting commitments. In the past, the club has reportedly treated Wright’s ongoing payouts as part of its payroll, even though he’s finished playing. Whether that’s the case — and what exactly the insurance work-out looks like — isn’t known. It’s also not totally clear how the club views the deGrom and Familia deferrals or Lowrie’s final bonus payout.

If we tabulate only cash owed this winter and in the 2020 season, and presume the team will be paying $3MM of the Wright contract, that still puts the cash payroll at a minimum of $161.5MM (presuming league-minimum salaries for ten roster spots not otherwise accounted for by the players listed above). Perhaps the team has it a bit lower or a bit higher for its internal purposes, but that seems like a good number to start with based upon what we do know.

Trouble is, the Mets have never yet started a season with a payroll that reached $160MM. They were close to $150MM in 2009 and over that amount in each of the past three seasons. But it seems the Mets are right about at capacity, barring a northward movement in spending allocation for the MLB roster.

So, unless the Wilpon ownership group is preparing to commit more cash to the cause, the front office is going to have to get very creative. The Mets roster does have quite a bit of talent, but it’s also the same essential unit that fell short this year and could certainly stand to be supplemented in several areas. There’s no true center fielder. We all know how the bullpen looked in 2019. The rotation is missing one piece and still also needs depth. Mis-fitting first baseman Dominic Smith might bring back a useful and affordable player, though it isn’t as if he alone will nab a quality pre-arb starter. And the farm system has already been mined for the aforementioned trades, making it tough to commit further prospect capital.

Big-contract swaps? Trading away quality, younger players? A deeper dig into the farm? There are conceivable possibilities, though none jump off the page as being obviously beneficial. There’ll be high stakes and tough choices to make for the Mets front office this winter — unless, perhaps, ownership has a winter payroll bonus planned for Van Wagenen and company to play with.

Yankees Replace CC Sabathia On ALCS Roster

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10:34am: Sabathia has been diagnosed with a subluxation of his left shoulder joint, per the team. He’ll be replaced by righty Ben Heller.

6:07am: It appears that the long and storied career of Yankees lefty CC Sabathia is now at an end. He exited last night’s contest with an injury, with manager Aaron Boone saying after the game that Sabathia is likely to be replaced on the ALCS roster. Erik Boland of Newsday was among those to report the news via Twitter.

Sabathia, 39, was trying to bail his team out of an error-fueled jam when the trainer was summoned. Boone said after the game that the issue is in Sabathia’s pitching shoulder. Details are scant, but the skipper did say the outlook is “not good.”

The Yanks ended up dropping the messy game 5 contest by a score of 8-3. That puts the team in a 3-1 hole with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole lined up to start for the Astros. Ripping off three-straight victories isn’t impossible, but will certainly be a tall order.

The front office will now need to settle on a roster replacement for Sabathia. The limitations of Giancarlo Stanton must also be considered; he’s said to be available to DH but is still dealing with a quad injury. Utilityman Tyler Wade and first baseman Luke Voit were both on the divisional series roster and remain options. Outfielder Mike Tauchman is also said to be available. It’s also possible the Yanks could instead add another arm.

As for Sabathia, he’s already committed to wrapping up his playing career at season’s end. But removing him from the roster would mean that he has now thrown his final pitches as a major leaguer. Sabathia would not be eligible to appear in the World Series — should the Yanks storm back and qualify — if he’s taken off of the ALCS roster.

Freddie Freeman Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman has undergone surgery on his right (non-throwing) elbow, per a club announcement. He was operated on by Mets team medical director and frequent baseball surgeon Dr. David Altchek.

The team provided a nicely detailed account of the procedure, which evidently did not involve any significant structural repairs. Altchek is said to have “cleaned out” the joint, including “removing three fragmented loose bodies and cleaning up multiple bone spur formations.”

Freeman is expected to be ready to roll by the time Spring Training comes around in mid-February. That’s obviously good news, as the 30-year-old remains a key cog after nine full seasons in the majors. He’s under contract for two more campaigns at $22MM apiece.

The Atlanta organization will hope that the medical work will resolve the elbow discomfort that seemingly plagued Freeman late in the 2019 season. The ever-productive first bagger suffered a bit of a late power outage, hitting .264/.365/.389 in the month of September. And he was just four-for-20 with a walk in his 22 plate appearances in the NLDS.

Bruce Bochy Not Interested In Managing In 2020

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After wrapping up his lengthy tenure as the manager of the Giants, Bruce Bochy is not going to head into the dugout with another organization — at least, not right away. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), Bochy has informed interested teams that he won’t interview for open managerial positions this winter.

It had at least been worth wondering whether Bochy might be wooed by one of the eight (now seven) teams that needed new skippers. He is only 64 years of age, after all, and has never said he’d be certain never to return to the dugout. There was a bit of a send-off tour as Bochy circled the majors this year, and he did say he was retiring, but that hasn’t stopped the speculation — including from within the Giants clubhouse.

For now, Bochy will remain with the San Francisco organization as a special assistant. But it seems he could be open to considering a return to a managerial role as soon as next year. Bochy has indicated before that he wouldn’t rule out that possibility in advance, preferring instead to see how things unfold once he steps away from the Giants.

There’s little doubt that other clubs would have interest. Bochy has overseen some rough recent campaigns in San Francisco, but it’s doubtful any other manager would’ve coaxed more from those rosters. And the mediocre conclusion doesn’t detract from the Bochy-led Giants’ remarkable run of three World Series titles in five years.

Indeed, the Padres — who Bochy managed for a dozen years before going up the coast — are even said to have “offered him a job.” (Whether that refers to the San Diego managerial vacancy isn’t made clear, but seems fair to presume.) It seems unlikely that particular position will be open this time next year, barring a calamitous first season for whomever is hired, but Bochy will surely end up fielding phone calls as the 2020 campaign draws to a close.

MLBTR Poll: Joe Maddon’s Angels Tenure

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Setting aside his fill-in work with the Angels earlier in his career, Joe Maddon has managed 14 campaigns in the majors. His club has cracked at least 90 wins in nine of those seasons and reached the postseason eight times. Whatever one thinks about the influence of a manager on the win-loss column, Maddon has undeniably piloted many a high-flying aircraft.

Maddon oversaw two lean years with the Rays before leaping from 66 wins to 97 and helping to shape the team into a perennial contender. He was brought in somewhat later in the process with the Cubs. In Chicago, he was tasked with vaulting a club brimming with young talent — but coming off of five-straight fifth-place finishes — into a new stratosphere. In his first year, Maddon flipped a 73-89 record into 97-65.

There are similarities and differences in his new gig. Maddon’s marching orders are essentially the same: replicate those 31-win (Rays) and 24-win (Cubs) bounces with the Halos. It’ll take something nearly as dramatic to get the L.A. organization back into the postseason for the first time since 2014. The club limped to a 72-90 record in 2019 and has turned in four consecutive losing campaigns. In a stratified American League, it might take 95 or more wins to make the playoffs.

That’s not to say it’s deja vu all over again. Maddon’s new Halos team is already led by established superstars, including the game’s greatest player in Mike Trout, its most fascinating talent in Shohei Ohtani (who’ll be back on the bump in 2020), peerless defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons, and slugger Justin Upton. The L.A. organization figures to have some funds to work with this winter and has one of the game’s truly elite prospects (Jo Adell) waiting in the wings. To be sure, there are needs — all over the pitching staff and behind the dish, in particular — but there are also resources to work with and quite a lot of talent already in place.

There’ll also be expectations. Maddon is no stranger to those after five years in Chicago. But his charges fell shy in 2018 and especially 2019, the lone year in which the Maddon-led Cubs fell shy of the playoffs. Halos owner Arte Moreno is surely short on patience given what he has invested in this club. GM Billy Eppler is roster-managing for his job without a contract beyond 2020. And the clock is ticking on Trout’s twenties.

Obviously this question involves considerations that go well beyond Maddon’s managerial acumen. But his hiring begins a consequential epoch for an organization that has endured disappointment as well as recent tragedy. Maddon will be a high-profile franchise face. He’ll start out with a three-year deal at a $12MM price tag — a significant commitment, but not quite the five-year, $25MM pact that drew him to Chicago.

So … how do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users.)

Zach Neal Re-Signs With Seibu Lions

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9:38AM: It’s a two-year contract for Neal, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  Neal will earn $4MM in guaranteed money, with more available via incentives.

7:29AM: Former MLB righty Zach Neal will return for another season with Japan’s Seibu Lions. The club announced the signing, with the Graveyard Baseball blog passing along the news via Twitter. Financial terms are not available.

Neal, 30, struggled to gain traction in the majors but looked right at home in Japan’s highest league, Nippon Professional Baseball. The former Athletics and Dodgers hurler had to earn his way onto the Lions’ roster through a stint with their top affiliate, but shined once he did.

Over 100 1/3 innings pitched in 17 starts, Neal pitched to a 2.87 ERA. He recorded only 51 strikeouts, though that’s a typical K rate for the command artist. Neal put only 15 baserunners aboard via the free pass, surrendered a manageable eight long balls, and evidently had success at limiting loud contact.

While Neal will stay abroad, at least for the time being, some other players could well be eyeing returns to the affiliated ranks. We recently broke down the 2019 season for numerous former major leaguers (and others of note) playing in Asia’s top leagues. That included Neal and his fellow NPB pitchers and hitters, as well as the pitchers and hitters playing in Korea’s KBO.

Angels Nearing Deal With Joe Maddon

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9:22AM: “A deal is not imminent” between Maddon and the Angels, Maria Torres of the L.A. Times writes (Twitter link), as details are “still being worked out.”  Likewise, Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group hears from a source that the team is “working on it.”

8:39AM: The Angels are closing in on an agreement to bring aboard Joe Maddon as the team’s manager, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s expected to be a three-year pact that pays Maddon in the realm of $12MM to $15MM, as per ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link).

If indeed a pact is completed, it’d be the first domino to fall in a busy winter of managerial movement. And it would bring the Halos an experienced and long-lauded new dugout leader to help flip the script after yet another disappointing campaign.

Maddon just wrapped up a successful stint with the Cubs. He led the Chicago organization to the promised land, finally bringing a championship to Wrigley in 2016, though the good vibes faded a bit in his final year at the helm.  Maddon finished with a 471-339 record in his five seasons in Chicago, reaching the postseason four times.

This match has made sense on paper ever since it became clear that Maddon wasn’t coming back to the Cubs, and speculation grew even heavier once the Halos fired manager Brad Ausmus after just one season. Maddon has a long history with the Angels, having spent more than three decades with the organization earlier in his career.

MLBTR Poll: What Changed For The Nats?

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We spend most of our time at this particular corner of the internet focused on payrolls and rosters. The tendency of contemporary baseball analysis is to seek value; to appreciate (in the full sense of the word) the role of fortune and the impossibility of predicting which players will come through in big moments.

But who among us doubts that some have icier veins, or hotter-burning competitive fires? Or that some leaders are better than others at spurring their charges to play at their best … or make the right decision in a key moment? We may not be able to make statistically valid assessments of these characteristics in advance, but it doesn’t feel especially bold to suggest that some players and some teams have more than just a lucky bounce of the ball to credit for their high-leverage triumphs.

That brings us to the topic of this morning’s poll: the Nationals, baseball’s perennial postseason underperformers, who just finished off a stirring run through the National League. You know the essentials of this tale already. The Nats’ four previous divisional series were exceptionally competitive, featuring mind-blowing twists and turns. All ended in defeat for the D.C. team, which always seemed to come up just short at the pivotal juncture.

Not so this time. The Nats came roaring back in the regular season after a dismal start. They returned from the brink of elimination in the Wild Card game against the Brewers, scraping together a comeback against one of the game’s most dominant short-appearance pitchers. They not only pushed the powerhouse Dodgers to a fifth game but won it, overcoming an early deficit and outshining L.A.’s stars in crunch time. And the Nationals finally put to rest their earliest postseason demons — those summoned by Yadi and co. back in 2012 — by thoroughly destroying the Cardinals in a four-game NLCS sweep.

It’s a talented roster, to be sure. But the recent-vintage Nats have never lacked in talent, stars and otherwise. What is actually different this time around? It’s nearly an impossible thing to analyze with any amount of scientific precision. But it’s an essential question to ponder for those that care about winning baseball championships.

I’ve compiled a few … theories, I guess we will call them. What say you? (Poll link for app users.)

Matt Williams To Manage KBO’s KIA Tigers

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While managerial rumors are flying around the majors, we haven’t yet seen a team land a new skipper. But the Korea Baseball Organization’s KIA Tigers have secured their next manager in the form of Matt Williams, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

Williams is said to have struck a three-year deal to head to Korea. The long-time big-league slugger had served as the Athletics’ third base coach for the past three campaigns.

Of course, the most notable aspect of Williams’s post-playing days came with the Nationals. He became the D.C. skipper in advance of the 2014 after a coaching stint with the Diamondbacks.

Things went well in 2014, with Williams helping to guide the Nats to a division title. While the club was bounced in the divisional series, he earned manager of the year honors. But the club endured a highly disappointing 2015 campaign and fired Williams at season’s end.

Scott Boras Sets Sights High For Hyun-jin Ryu Contract

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This time last year, agent Scott Boras was waiting to see whether the Dodgers would issue southpaw Hyun-jin Ryu a qualifying offer at season’s end. The team did extend the offer, and Ryu accepted, betting that he’d be better off taking the big one-year payday and trying to turn in a big campaign in advance of a trip onto the open market.

That bet has paid off more handsomely than anyone expected, with Ryu turning in his best season as a big leaguer. Boras is understandably excited to market the starter at a high-point in value; the veteran agent tells Yonhap News that he’s angling for both a hefty salary and an extended length of contract. Is one more important than the other? “That’s like saying, with a car, do want the engine or the steering wheel?” says Boras. “You want both.”

Ryu couldn’t have scripted things better on the field in 2019. He was unbelievable for almost the entire year, outside of a few rough starts in late August. All told, Ryu spun 182 2/3 innings of 2.32 ERA ball with 8.0 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9. Opposing hitters managed only an 85.3 mph average exit velocity and 30.8% hard-hit rate.

Now, Ryu will enter free agency on the heels of a fully healthy and productive season — and without the drag of draft compensation, since he cannot be issued a second qualifying offer. Boras says the southpaw was not only “the best pitcher in the league,” but “we’re just beginning to see the real Ryu.”

There has never been much question of Ryu’s ability, as he has been steadily excellent since coming over from his native Korea in 2013. But he hasn’t always been available owing to arm and other maladies. Ryu missed almost all of the 2015-16 seasons and half of 2018. That’s a red flag for a team considering a lengthy and lucrative outlay.

Never one to allow a bad fact to get him down, Boras posits a silver lining bright enough to blind one from seeing the storm cloud that renders it. Ryu’s injury history is, per Boras, a blessing in disguise: “He is, age-wise, 32, but the truth is, innings-wise, he’s probably about 26 or 27, because he doesn’t have many innings on his arm. That makes him very valuable.”

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how the market situation plays out for Ryu. The Dodgers continue to make sense for him, particularly given the team’s predilection to employ highly talented but injury-prone starters. Which other teams will follow suit, and to what extent, isn’t clear. There’s obviously both upside and downside to a pitcher of this ilk — a premium vehicle with low miles but a lengthy history of time spent in the mechanic’s shop, to extend Boras’s auto analogy.

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